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Matt Araiza and the Draft


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15 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

No reason whatsoever to think that a 4th rounder would be "a potential PS player waiting to make a start 3/4 of the way into the season."

 

Taron Johnson saw 405 snaps his rookie year. He had 45 snaps and a pass defensed in week 3, 70 snaps a forced fumble and a QB hit in week 4, an INT in week 5 ...

 

Davis by "3/4 of the way into the season his rookie year" had 5 TDs, more than 400 yards and almost 30 catches.

 


I probably should have clarified- I was thinking in that scenario if we traded back up and it cost us some of the lower round picks. I wouldn’t mind if we did that if we think he’s the guy. I’d rather pass on fliers in the 6th like Wildgoose and Hamlin and use those picks (plus maybe a swap of 5ths) to

move back up late in the 4th and get a day 1 starter

Edited by KingBoots8
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7 minutes ago, KingBoots8 said:


I probably should have clarified- I was thinking in that scenario if we traded back up and it cost us some of the lower round picks. I wouldn’t mind if we did that if we think he’s the guy. I’d rather pass on fliers in the 6th like Wildgoose and Hamlin and use those picks (plus maybe a swap of 5ths) to

move back up late in the 4th and get a day 1 starter

 

 

IMO that's not Beane's M.O.

 

I personally find it more tolerable that way, but still not something I would be willing to do.

 

And again, it's Beane who does the picking. He's been willing in the past to trade 6ths and 7ths, but I don't believe he's ever emptied a round back that late. He appears to be very willing to trade a 6th or a 7th if he's got another left over in the same round.

 

But for him to trade our 5th up for a 4th, he'd be emptying the 5th, and would be giving up 22.2 points in the traditional draft chart. The only possible way to get near that would be to trade both sixths. So he'd be emptying both the 5th and 6th rounds. He's never done anything like that in trades for picks. IMO very unlikely.

 

A lot of people advocating tradeups do it essentially because they don't much value late picks. Beane does. He's shown he does.

 

Well, we can agree to disagree. I don't think a punter is worth a 4th round pick, especially on this team that doesn't punt as much as most teams do. It isn't Araiza or bust. There are plenty of other replacements for Haack around, including one or two who might be worth drafting late.

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10 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I’m not against drafting a punter But not as early as the fourth round draft a different one


Hey, the Raiders picked Ray Guy in the first round!
 

Just win, baby!!

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9 hours ago, HereComesTheReignAgain said:

I would be extremely disappointed to see the Bills use anything higher than a 6th round pick on a punter. There were multiple games where the Bills punter only got on the field to hold for FGs. 


Yeah, I’d rather use a pick on a punter than on a backup player that isn’t likely to make the team and probably would get stolen from the practice squad anyway.

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He’s not that great. He takes a while to get his punts off. Yes they go far but none have hangtime. Half the time, the returnees don’t even catch it and it rolls. When they did get returned they were for large gains because he’s out kicking his coverage. 
 

He’s going to get drafted higher than he should. The PSU and Georgia kid can be had in 5-7 and are just as good 

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While one can make the argument that as the punter he is a day one starter, the Bills have punted 93 times in 33 regular season games over the past two seasons, an average of 2.8 punts per game. Presuming that the Bills continue to be a good offense for the next 4 years (the length contract for a 3rd or 4th rounder) that is not going to change much. So outside of holding, spending a 3rd or 4th rounder on a punter gets him on the field for a little less than 3 plays a game.

 

If they draft a player in the 3rd or 4th round you get a special teams contributor, a rotational player, or an eventual starter. In any scenario they are on the field for double digit plays per game, or like in the case of Dawson Knox, Devin SIngletary, Taron Johnson and Spencer Brown, full time starters. 

 

With their depth punter at 6 like they did with Tyler Bass is great. Any earlier than that? Probably not. Even 5th round Tommy Doyle played more snaps than the punter.

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38 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

He’s not that great. He takes a while to get his punts off. Yes they go far but none have hangtime. Half the time, the returnees don’t even catch it and it rolls. When they did get returned they were for large gains because he’s out kicking his coverage. 
 

He’s going to get drafted higher than he should. The PSU and Georgia kid can be had in 5-7 and are just as good 

2022 Draft:  Three  punters drafted in first round!  Experts are pointing to a fan message board somewhere in the northeast for this 'pump and dump' strategy. 🤔

*
Are these guys fungible?

Edited by Ridgewaycynic2013
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The difference between the very best punter and the worst in the NFL is a whole 8 yards on average.  A team punts on average about 4 times a game, the Bills punted on average 3.05 times a game last year.  How much is 25 yards a game worth to you? (Assuming you get the very best guy and Buffalo winds don’t skew their stats back to the middle of the pack where it’s more like a 4 yard a kick difference). BTW the difference between the best punter and worst when looking at Net is only 7 yards and the best average distance punter is not the best Net. 

 

A great punter is a nice thing to have, but the amount of times that 4-8 yards makes a big difference is rare.  The Bills could/should upgrade as Haack is one of the worst in the league no matter how you shape it, but to talk about a 3rd round pick is nuts.  

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I'm sure I'll be in the minority here, but I actually agree with this logic.

 

Matt "Punt God" Araiza would be as close to a sure thing as you could get.

Araiza is also a pretty good place kicker, so there's your backup to Bass in case of injury as well.

 

The top 3 punters in the league make almost $4M/yr and their teams never let them go. They are game changers.

 

Using a 4th would sting a bit, but I'd do it. He likely won't be around in the 5th-7th.

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No doubt the kid seems amazing. The fact he is left footed is interesting as the Bills seem to love left footed punters lol Also, the fact that he can kick would be interesting in case God forbid anything happens to Bass but I totally agree about him with no holding experience. I do think he can be taught that though.

 

I originally thought nothing higher than a 4th but I'm leaning towards nothing higher than a 5th.

 

But we know this is all moot right guys? We know how this will play out....

 

Some team will be insane and draft him in the 3rd, Rich Eisen will lose his $#*T and continue to declare punters are people too.

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12 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

 

better field position, offense has to drive longer to score.   Gives the D, esp the playmaking  secondary more time to make a play. 

 

11 hours ago, NewEra said:

Punter?  HELL NO.   Offense and more offense.  Go for it on every 4th.  No punts 

 

36 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

The difference between the very best punter and the worst in the NFL is a whole 8 yards on average.  A team punts on average about 4 times a game, the Bills punted on average 3.05 times a game last year.  How much is 25 yards a game worth to you? (Assuming you get the very best guy and Buffalo winds don’t skew their stats back to the middle of the pack where it’s more like a 4 yard a kick difference). BTW the difference between the best punter and worst when looking at Net is only 7 yards and the best average distance punter is not the best Net. 

 

A great punter is a nice thing to have, but the amount of times that 4-8 yards makes a big difference is rare.  The Bills could/should upgrade as Haack is one of the worst in the league no matter how you shape it, but to talk about a 3rd round pick is nuts.  

 

Well put.  The value of a punter, especially to a team that has a top D (even with a current "bad" Punter) is being way over rated here.  The difference among them has such a small delta, that their impact is miniscule.  

 

But if you need to fil a roster spot for the longer term, I see no problem blowing a throwaway pick like a 6 or even a 5 on one.

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14 hours ago, KingBoots8 said:


Normally I would agree, but for an immediate impact player I would absolutely do it. Day 1 starter. I’d rather have him than a potential PS player waiting to make a start 3/4 of the way into the season

Matt Milano and Taron Johnson are both 4th/5th round picks and they are legitimate starters. Sure they both had to develop for a time, but we NEED to draft starters/future starters who will be on rookie contracts with Josh’s higher pay coming next season. 
 

Can we use an upgrade at punter? Sure, but punter wasn’t the reason we lost to KC, and most everyone feels if 13 seconds went different we may have won it all. 
 

I’m sure we can get an upgrade at punter either in FA or draft, even if it isn’t Arazia. To answer your question, 5th at the absolute earliest, but I’d prefer the 6th round. 

Edited by Tanoros
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7 hours ago, KingBoots8 said:


I probably should have clarified- I was thinking in that scenario if we traded back up and it cost us some of the lower round picks. I wouldn’t mind if we did that if we think he’s the guy. I’d rather pass on fliers in the 6th like Wildgoose and Hamlin and use those picks (plus maybe a swap of 5ths) to

move back up late in the 4th and get a day 1 starter

This is draft is one of the deepest drafts in years, whereas last years draft was one of the least deep drafts in years. Even then, Hamlin didn’t look bad as a rookie. 
 

So many completely undervalue late round picks. Plenty of starters and/or good players come from the later rounds, and in deep draft like this one, there should be more than in most years. 
 

As other posters have pointed out, punters across the board aren’t much different from the worst to the best in the NFL, and rotational/special teams players will have many more snaps then the punter over the course of a season. 
 

I trust Beane whatever he does, but I’d be absolutely stunned if he took a punter in the 4th, much less trading up into the 3rd. That’s just insane, especially when we need contributors on rookie deals with Josh’s contract ballooning next season. 

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1 hour ago, Rigotz said:

I'm sure I'll be in the minority here, but I actually agree with this logic.

 

Matt "Punt God" Araiza would be as close to a sure thing as you could get.

Araiza is also a pretty good place kicker, so there's your backup to Bass in case of injury as well.

 

The top 3 punters in the league make almost $4M/yr and their teams never let them go. They are game changers.

 

Using a 4th would sting a bit, but I'd do it. He likely won't be around in the 5th-7th.

I see your point on the salary of a punter, but even still, I’d look later in the draft if at all.  Traditionally, punters get drafted very late, if at all.  To my earlier point, I don’t think the difference is there to use a pick on one.  Bojo was a good punter for no investment, his holding sucked bad enough to cost him his job.  Haack is the opposite.  On the overall Bojo averaged about 4yards better than Haack and aside from the SLOW kick that cost the Pitt game, it really didn’t matter all year.

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14 hours ago, Riverboat Ritchie said:

 

No opinion on this punter, as I'm not a college guy, I rely on you guys for my draft knowledge...I'm in trouble, I know. However, what use are these college highlight reels? If there was a highlight reel of my high school days, I would look like an all pro DB, when I was mediocre at best.

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17 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

I see your point on the salary of a punter, but even still, I’d look later in the draft if at all.  Traditionally, punters get drafted very late, if at all.  To my earlier point, I don’t think the difference is there to use a pick on one.  Bojo was a good punter for no investment, his holding sucked bad enough to cost him his job.  Haack is the opposite.  On the overall Bojo averaged about 4yards better than Haack and aside from the SLOW kick that cost the Pitt game, it really didn’t matter all year.

 

My counter-point is that punt length isn't the only trait you're looking for in great punters.

Both Haack and Bojo were terrible at "coffin corner" punting.

 

When you pin an offense inside their 1-3 yard line, that's usually an immediate stop and good field position for your team.

It's way more important than the net 4 yards you mentioned. Bojo and Haack would almost always sail it into the end zone.

Edited by Rigotz
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