Building through the draft

[Sharky7337]

I know with Josh's contract kicking in now this is more important than ever.

 

One thing that I notice is most of our draft picks don't even really produce at a decent to good level until year 3. Sometimes later.

 

Now we start to see results for example on contracts like Oliver, but he likely about to get a big payday probably somewhere else we cannot match.

 

So we basically groomed a player for 3 years for his big payday and only got good production for maybe 1.5 to 2 years (if you pickup 5th year option)

 

Honestly it makes the Rams not look so crazy at times.

 

Do you guys think it is just our draft choices not being big hits? 

 

Or do you think it's the norm for the league?

 

It's going to be hard to improve our team if we are just grooming guys for a big payday and not seeing good cheap production earlier. 

 

 

[First Round Bust]

Trey, Gabriel Davis, Josh, Edmunds, Spencer Brown, 99 (injuries),  for starters all contributed early  - the new defensive ends not as much yet, I think you are looking for impact, monster man, star player results...early, right away - not the philosophy of the veteran coaches as Bills age-wise are always top 10 oldest NFL roster, the kids learn while the vets play.

 

but to your point, the future is NOW....

 

we have nine (9) picks coming this draft with one each in the first five rounds and two each in rounds six (Car) and seven (Atl - thanks to the gift that keeps on holding, I mean, giving,  Lee Smith).

 

Need space-eating nose as Harry, Oliver and Zimmer (pending UFA-ACL tear) are light (under 300) and our run defense is consistently exposed against the good teams...and need a CB esp if Levi gets paid, and he very well ma y leave for that, and OL depth (always)

 

Plus 9 picks are not going to make our roster, two got cut last season and got poached from the PS (Anderson, Wildgoose) so given that I would trade up from our first-round pick #25 to get Jordan Davis - UGA - 6-6-340, and then since it is a deeper draft than usual for quality corners, per Joe B (Athletic)  move up again in the second round, pick 57 and add some middle round picks to get a quality CB and if needed pull from next years draft picks, cuz the future is now...see LA Rams model.

 

Use the late round picks in rounds 6-7 for OL and overall depth, and punter maybe ?,  those will take some grooming.

 

 

 

Edited January 29, 2022 by First Round Bust
JoeMama

[whorlnut]

So you are another advocate of ignoring offense until the mid to late rounds?  If so, I don’t know what to say. 
 

This is 2022…we need to keep adding to this offense and helping our best player. We aren’t stopping teams like the chiefs….you simply need to match them point for point. 

[Bronxbomber21]

I think I would trade the Giants for Barkley we need a playmaker at RB and the Giants new gm needs draft picks where in win now mode we don't have room for 9 draft picks anyway 

Edited January 29, 2022 by Bronxbomber21

[All_Pro_Bills]

The Bills are past the "build" phase and into the championship window phase.  The draft needs to produce 3 or 4 players that can contribute to fill some areas of need right now.  Not a year later or two years later.  Guys that can either start or get a lot of snaps on either side of the ball.  And that requires a change draft in strategy.  No depth guys at stacked positions.  No BPA players that need a year or two to develop.  No players drafted speculating on future potential vs. a player that's ready right now.  We need big contributions to fill some holes for September 2022, not September 2024.  

 

The Super Bowl window is open as long as Allen is effective and healthy.  Maybe it's a 10 or 12 year window? And  we're going into year 5.  Patiently waiting 2 or 3 years for the 2022 draft class to mature and contribute is unacceptable given the situation.  Plus a lot of us including myself are getting older.  And I'm beginning to think this version of the Bills is the last shot I have to see a Super Bowl win before the eventual dirt nap gets me.   

Edited January 29, 2022 by All_Pro_Bills

[Gunner]

45 minutes ago, Sharky7337 said:

I know with Josh's contract kicking in now this is more important than ever.

 

One thing that I notice is most of our draft picks don't even really produce at a decent to good level until year 3. Sometimes later.

 

Now we start to see results for example on contracts like Oliver, but he likely about to get a big payday probably somewhere else we cannot match.

 

So we basically groomed a player for 3 years for his big payday and only got good production for maybe 1.5 to 2 years (if you pickup 5th year option)

 

Honestly it makes the Rams not look so crazy at times.

 

Do you guys think it is just our draft choices not being big hits? 

 

Or do you think it's the norm for the league?

 

It's going to be hard to improve our team if we are just grooming guys for a big payday and not seeing good cheap production earlier. 

 

 

I used to always feel that way about our CBs. We'd draft one (usually for Ohio State it seemed) and after getting groomed here he would go someplace else.

[Solomon Grundy]

5 minutes ago, Bronxbomber21 said:

I think I would trade the Giants for Barkley we need a playmaker at RB and the Giants new gm needs draft picks when in win now mode we don't have room for 9 draft picks 

I totally agree with playmaking RB. Barkley, depending on asking price, I’m not so sure on. I’m waiting on combine, but if he tests well I want Breece Hall

[Bronxbomber21]

7 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

The Bills are past the "build" phase and into the championship window phase.  The draft needs to produce 3 or 4 players that can contribute to fill some areas of need right now.  Not a year later or two years later.  Guys that can either start or get a lot of snaps on either side of the ball.  And that requires a change draft in strategy.  No depth guys at stacked positions.  No BPA players that need a year or two to develop.  No players drafted speculating on future potential vs. a player that's ready right now.  We need big contributions to fill some holes for September 2022, not September 2024.  

 

The Super Bowl window is open as long as Allen is effective and healthy.  Maybe it's a 10 or 12 year window? And  we're going into year 5.  Patiently waiting 2 or 3 years for the 2022 draft class to mature and contribute is unacceptable given the situation.  Plus a lot of us including myself are getting older.  And I'm beginning to think this version of the Bills is the last shot I have to see a Super Bowl win before the eventual dirt nap gets me.   

Like I just wrote I think this would be the perfect time to trade with the Giants for Barkley we need a playmaker at RB add the Giants new gm is a friend and he need draft picks 

[Mr. WEO]

will they draft a QB who can immediately become the QB Coach who will then be groomed to become the OC?

 

 

I say yes. Obviously.

[All_Pro_Bills]

3 minutes ago, Bronxbomber21 said:

Like I just wrote I think this would be the perfect time to trade with the Giants for Barkley we need a playmaker at RB add the Giants new gm is a friend and he need draft picks 

If, and a big if, Barkley can stay healthy that would be a big pick up.  A home run hitter that can carry a big part of the load.  The other thing is how the numbers work out per the cap.  And how it impacts other potential cap decisions.

 

But other contenders do this all the time?  There're examples in every major sport.  So why not the Bills?  Seems like it's time to go all in here.  

[Magox]

Buffalo should continue to add quality players from the offensive skilled positions.   Either via FA or draft, they should look to get at least one more quality receiving threat and one fast quality receiving RB.

 

The team should continue to invest in the offensive skilled positions, as long as Allen can be protected with his lineman and has lots of quality offensive options, the Bills offense will continue to be a juggernaut.  
 

Defensively, extend Oliver, sign Harrison, get Edmunds for at least another year, let Levi walk (even though I like him but he will be too expensive $9-$10m range), get a couple early to mid round DB’s in the draft and let Dane be the #2 and hopefully one of the rookies can be the #3 option (not counting Taron).    Let Klein walk (even though I like him but we can’t afford him), let Butler, Hughes and Addison walk.   And go get one of the best pass rushers in FA and let that be the splash FA signing of this year.  Hopefully with Boogie, Epenesa, Rousseau and the FA signing that should be good along with Obada.

 

I would look to draft a RB and WR with 2 of the first 3 picks.    Get a Interior D lineman and A couple DB’s to fill out the rest of the early to mid rounders 

 

 

Edited January 29, 2022 by Magox

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

When I look at draft picks and their second contracts, I look for guys that were real difference makers on their teams.  If they were not real difference makers but good players, they should get reasonable market based offers.  If desperate teams are willing to overpay, then I believe they should be allowed to walk.  The overpaid players reduce the ability of the new team to field a competitive team over the long term.  Under the cap structure, teams can really only have maybe five or six premium contracts, so a good GM will have to decide whether a guy is worth one of those premium deals.  Usually; QB, one WR, left tackle, one CB, one pass rusher, and one other player hit a premium deal.

 

When I look at the Bills; Allen, Diggs, Dawkins, and White will be receiving premium level pay going into 2022.  Looking at the rest of the team, it is hard for me to see anyone in line for a huge new contract.  Much to the dismay of many, I think Edmunds will be getting a hefty contract, because of how he fits into the scheme that McD runs.  The scheme requires freakish athletic capability that isn't widely available.  Oliver is the only other guy that could be in the mix for a big payday but not a huge break the bank kind of deal.

 

I believe our development of draft picks is pretty consistent with other teams around the league.  I actually think Beane hits things reasonably well in the draft. When good teams are drafting late in the rounds, the players being picked are not elite players that automatically walk into high impact starting positions.

[78thealltimegreat]

When you see what Herbert, Burrow, and Jackson are about to get Josh’s contract will look like a bargain 

[Bronxbomber21]

4 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

If, and a big if, Barkley can stay healthy that would be a big pick up.  A home run hitter that can carry a big part of the load.  The other thing is how the numbers work out per the cap.  And how it impacts other potential cap decisions.

 

But other contenders do this all the time?  There're examples in every major sport.  So why not the Bills?  Seems like it's time to go all in here.  

I really don't think it's a big if to Land Barkley anymore with the Giants quickly becoming the Bills of the NFC with the signing of there new GM and HC they are going to need draft picks and Buffalo's in win now mode needing a playmaker at RB it's a perfect fit. They just need to work out the salary cap

[First Round Bust]

26 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

So you are another advocate of ignoring offense until the mid to late rounds?  If so, I don’t know what to say. 
 

This is 2022…we need to keep adding to this offense and helping our best player. We aren’t stopping teams like the chiefs….you simply need to match them point for point. 

What do yiou says to the fact that the Bills are winless on the road in the playoffs under Mcdermitt, I say it points more to the defense than the offense.

we cant have everything, the fact that we gave up 42 points and over 30 to the Titans...look at the yards rushing we gave up is an on-going problem

we have two starting tackles in place for years, the center and guard positions are usually not early picks unless hall-of-famers. Teller was a fifth-rounder for example.

We already gave up a first-rounder for a WR for Diggs who will likely be extended.  Davis is number 2, Beasley back for one more, the position will not be ignored and free agents like Sanders did, will want to come play for Josh and the ring.

 

 

[whorlnut]

6 minutes ago, First Round Bust said:

What do yiou says to the fact that the Bills are winless on the road in the playoffs under Mcdermitt, I say it points more to the defense than the offense.

we cant have everything, the fact that we gave up 42 points and over 30 to the Titans...look at the yards rushing we gave up is an on-going problem

we have two starting tackles in place for years, the center and guard positions are usually not early picks unless hall-of-famers. Teller was a fifth-rounder for example.

We already gave up a first-rounder for a WR for Diggs who will likely be extended.  Davis is number 2, Beasley back for one more, the position will not be ignored and free agents like Sanders did, will want to come play for Josh and the ring.

 

 

Then this raises another concern…do we have a GM and HC that don’t have an eye for defensive talent?  I mean, all the resources that have been dumped into the defense and it’s still “not enough”?  That’s a major red flag. Do you really want them or trust them to draft the right defensive player?

 

Yes…Beasley is back for one more year, but now would be the perfect time to draft his replacement. If we

could add a slot with speed, could you imagine the possibilities?  Right now, we have a guy that makes the catch and falls forward. We can improve that position. 

[All_Pro_Bills]

10 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

Yes…Beasley is back for one more year, but now would be the perfect time to draft his replacement. If we

could add a slot with speed, could you imagine the possibilities?  Right now, we have a guy that makes the catch and falls forward. We can improve that position. 

My expectation is that Stephenson is supposed to be that guy with speed.  

[whorlnut]

13 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

My expectation is that Stephenson is supposed to be that guy with speed.  

Awesome…another late round solution for the offense. 

[frogger]

I’ll say this till I’m blue in the face, but here goes…the draft…honestly there is some elite talent….but it’s top 15, after that 16-100 the talent level isn’t much different.  This draft’s success is found in the 16-100 picks (honestly there’s probably 110-120) if we are able to collect 6 picks within that range we will see it in 2-3 years with some happening even earlier.  With our team moving into the top heavy realm we need to find cheap talent….we need to trade down…save the cap room for 2023.

[Redneck]

Per Spotrak, Saquon has a $7.2M cap hit in 2022 and then is a UFA.  Wonder if a 3rd (or 2nd based on production) would do it and we extend him 1-2 years to lessen the hit?

[First Round Bust]

2 hours ago, whorlnut said:

Then this raises another concern…do we have a GM and HC that don’t have an eye for defensive talent?  I mean, all the resources that have been dumped into the defense and it’s still “not enough”?  That’s a major red flag. Do you really want them or trust them to draft the right defensive player?

 

Yes…Beasley is back for one more year, but now would be the perfect time to draft his replacement. If we

could add a slot with speed, could you imagine the possibilities?  Right now, we have a guy that makes the catch and falls forward. We can improve that position. 

if the GM and HC have a blind spot it is for former free agent Carolina players they know and who in turn know the defense, Star and Butler are misses, Obada was a freebie pickup, the hit and miss with the draft picks is a given with every team, I think the Carolina thing has run its course hopefully...this management team drafts well overall with lots of mid and late round hits and some early round misses such as Zay Jones and Cody Ford who will get one more shot come training camp...this is the year AJ (a second-rounder) has to step-up and show he can play well more consistently..some of which is based on reps which he was not given and or not earned

[Solomon Grundy]

3 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

When you see what Herbert, Burrow, and Jackson are about to get Josh’s contract will look like a bargain 

Josh may have set the market with them. Can you honestly say they deserve more money than Allen?

[Buffalo716]

4 hours ago, whorlnut said:

So you are another advocate of ignoring offense until the mid to late rounds?  If so, I don’t know what to say. 
 

This is 2022…we need to keep adding to this offense and helping our best player. We aren’t stopping teams like the chiefs….you simply need to match them point for point. 

I'm not against adding to the offense 

 

But we basically did match them point for point

 

We were winning with 13 seconds left because of our offense

 

We need to add some offensive lineman and a running back.. we really don't need a flashy first round receiver we could get by with a good veteran with speed 

 

 

[ColoradoBills]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

I'm not against adding to the offense 

 

But we basically did match them point for point

 

We were winning with 13 seconds left because of our offense

 

We need to add some offensive lineman and a running back.. we really don't need a flashy first round receiver we could get by with a good veteran with speed 

 

 

 

Getting lucky and hitting on a 5th round Tyreek Hill like KC did would be nice.

[Nextmanup]

4 hours ago, whorlnut said:

So you are another advocate of ignoring offense until the mid to late rounds?  If so, I don’t know what to say. 
 

This is 2022…we need to keep adding to this offense and helping our best player. We aren’t stopping teams like the chiefs….you simply need to match them point for point. 

This is 100% accurate and true.

 

I feel your comments here represent the feelings of MAYBE 10% of this board.

 

It's hilarious but also kind of sad.

 

7 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Getting lucky and hitting on a 5th round Tyreek Hill like KC did would be nice.

If teams had a clue how to evaluate talent, it wouldn't take luck.

 

Look at his speed and natural level of athleticism, route running ability, and hands.

How exactly was he some sort of hidden, rough cut gem?

 

The guy should have gone top 5 in that draft.

 

 

 

[Niagara Dude]

7 hours ago, Sharky7337 said:

I know with Josh's contract kicking in now this is more important than ever.

 

One thing that I notice is most of our draft picks don't even really produce at a decent to good level until year 3. Sometimes later.

 

Now we start to see results for example on contracts like Oliver, but he likely about to get a big payday probably somewhere else we cannot match.

 

So we basically groomed a player for 3 years for his big payday and only got good production for maybe 1.5 to 2 years (if you pickup 5th year option)

 

Honestly it makes the Rams not look so crazy at times.

 

Do you guys think it is just our draft choices not being big hits? 

 

Or do you think it's the norm for the league?

 

It's going to be hard to improve our team if we are just grooming guys for a big payday and not seeing good cheap production earlier. 

 

 

The biggest blunders or busts look like Ford #1 bust because they could have taken either Metcalf or Brown who are star WR'S and then AJ Epenesa.  Now Epenesa still has time to get it together but so far he looks too slow and not strong enough.  Ford may not even make the roster next season and is Beane's worse high draft pick

Edited January 29, 2022 by Niagara Dude

[Chicken Boo]

2 hours ago, Redneck said:

Per Spotrak, Saquon has a $7.2M cap hit in 2022 and then is a UFA.  Wonder if a 3rd (or 2nd based on production) would do it and we extend him 1-2 years to lessen the hit?

 

Put me on the list as being in favor of acquiring Barkley.  

 

He'd be a great addition to this offense and a match-up nightmare for LBs as a receiving option. 

[BillsShredder83]

45 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Josh may have set the market with them. Can you honestly say they deserve more money than Allen?

no i dont think they do.... but 9 out of 10 qbs that are next man up for contract reset the market, and i dont think are worth it. so yeah, i dont see that changing. cap goes up, inflation is booming.

[bigK14094]

Never having seen Barkley play, I don't have a  view.  Who on this board watches the Giants?  Not me!