THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Throw the Dolphins on the Pile

[Shaw66]

The Bills put up 35 points and shut out the Dolphins in Miami on Sunday.  In the old days, a win like that would have been cause for a multi-day celebration.  Maybe it’s just me, but it isn’t the same any more.  I mean, it’s always fun to beat the Dolphins, but they’ve been nearly as irrelevant as the Bills for a long time. 

 

Plus, Sean McDermott has been teaching me to see the season the way he sees it:   We’re going to spend six weeks getting ready to play, and then we’re going to play for 18 weeks.   The object of playing those 18 weeks is build a team that’s good at everything in December and to pile up wins any way we can, so that we make the playoffs and ideally have the home field for some or all of them.  Each game is different, with different matchups with different talent and different skill sets.   If you win, throw it on the pile and move on.  If you lose, just move on.   In either case, you learn something about what you do well and what you do poorly, and you continue to work on both.

 

And so it is that I’m just not all that excited about the win over the Dolphins.  For that matter, I wasn’t very upset about the loss to the Steelers.  Just learn some lessons and go back to piling up wins.  That’s exactly what the Bills did after the Steelers game.  Along the way against the Dolphins they showed some flashes of what they could be, and they discovered some weaknesses.  And, oh, by the way, they shut out the Dolphins!!!

 

Sean McDermott has been teaching me to see the games the way he sees them, too:  Some things will go right, some won’t, you’ll score some, you’ll go cold some, and at the end of the game, you may be coasting, you may be whipped, or you’ll need to make plays to win.  No reason to get too excited early in the game, or get upset.  Do your best and see what you have coming down the stretch.

 

Coming down the stretch against the Dolphins, the Bills had a laugher.  The only thing that mattered was that the reserves would preserve the shutout, and they did.  Put the win on the pile and move on. 

 

Was it a blowout?  No, or at least it didn’t feel like one.  Why not?  Because the Bills looked, alternately, very good and then ineffective.  They fumbled, they threw interceptions, they went three and out.   They lit it up with big plays on their first two drives, and then there was nothing for a long stretch.  They had an opportunity to grab the game and make it theirs at the end of the first half, and they got nothing.  Then a beautiful touchdown drive after halftime made it 21-0, and the Bills coasted home. 

 

The ups and downs of the offense didn’t matter all that much, of course, because the Bills defense came to play, and they just weren’t going to allow the Dolphins to compete.  They sacked Tua and Brissett six times and pressured them on countless other plays.  The defense gave up a play here and there, but not often enough for the Dolphins to sustain any kind of offense.  Averages don’t mean much of anything after only two games, but check the stats: the Bills defense is second in the league in yards allowed, and second in points allowed.  Of course, they haven’t played anyone you’d call an offensive powerhouse.

 

The Bills got great pressure on the quarterback, rushing four and five defenders.  Which four and five?   Well, that’s the problem for the opponent to worry about.  Sometimes the safeties are featured.  Against the Dolphins, it was White and Taron Johnson.  There’s always a mix of linebackers who might be coming.  The Bills defensive ends often are back in in the short passing zones.

 

Who stood out on defense?   Easier to ask who didn’t?   Everyone’s name was called sooner or later.  Hughes and Oliver were relatively quiet, but they helped create the relentless pressure that came from the outside.  Lotulelei and Zimmer made plays in the middle, Addison was a constant disrupter.  Both Milano and Edmunds were active blitzing, chasing down ball carriers, defending passes.  Taron Johnson stood out.  Dane Jackson’s tackle on 4th and 2 was fabulous.

 

Rousseau and Epenesa deserve special mention.  Epenesa was relentless, showing surprising power to go with the shiftiness we saw some of last season.  He played like he was determined to make a difference in the game on every play.  It was an impressive show.  If it was a sign of things to come, well, it’s going to be fun, because the guy on the other side is going to be Rousseau.

 

Rousseau’s not overpowering people, at least not yet, but he has uncanny ability to pursue effectively.   He’s always on his feet, always moving.  In stunts, he just picks his way through bodies to find a seam.  When teams run away from him, he pursues cross-field, behind the line of scrimmage.  The result is that he’s always around the ball, and when he gets there, he gets his hands on the ball carrier or quarterback.  Over and over, he’s there.  He maintains his gap discipline, and he looks comfortable dropping into pass coverage.  He’s already a threat, and as he gets stronger and more experienced, he will be a force. 

 

The Bills’ offense, on the other hand, is not 2nd, or 5th, 10th in yards or points.  The Bills’ offense is still trying to figure it out. 

 

The offensive line is certainly trying to figure it out.  While the defensive line recovered from the Steelers by playing better (granted, in part because this week it was, well, the Dolphins), the offensive line seemed to survive this week only because it was, well, the Dolphins.  Manhandled by the Steelers, they stood up better this week, but no one would call them dominant.  Sunday night, the Chiefs showed us what great pass protection looks like, and the Ravens showed us great run blocking.   The Bills’ offensive line didn’t show either.  The Bills’ philosophy seems to be to tell the running backs and the quarterback something like, “The guys up front are going to do the best they can; it won’t be pretty, but you have make the most of it.  If you find a hole, take it, and good luck with those linebackers.  Josh, find the open man and get the ball out, because you’re going to be on the run soon.” 

 

What’s needed to make the offensive line better?   A stud somewhere along the line would be nice, but no one is looking very studlike.  Dawkins and Feliciano seemed to hold up better this week, but they aren’t dominating.  Ford looks like he’s winning the battle at right guard, and maybe now we will begin to see something special from him.  Williams isn’t killing the Bills, but that’s faint praise.  I’m expecting that we’ll see more of Spencer Brown as the season progresses, in part because his education as a pro will continue, and in part because the Bills will be looking for more solid play at tackle. 

 

Allen, of course, is the big, the big, the big what?   The big piece of the puzzle?  Absolutely.   He makes it all work.  The big mystery?   For sure.  Where did the 2020 Allen go?  What happened to all those lovely touch passes, right on the money?   He missed Sanders deep again.   He missed Diggs badly a couple of times.  Last season he was getting settled the instant before he threw and delivering balls to open receivers; now, everything seems to be happening in a hurry.  And his decision making seems shaky, too. 

 

What we’re seeing is the 2019 Allen, the Allen with potential, the Allen who makes special throws, like the touchdown to Knox, and then makes a head-scratcher. 

 

Mahomes, Murray, and Jackson have something Allen doesn’t have – the incredibly quick release from almost any arm position.  It’s amazing to watch them.  Allen can’t do all of that, but he can do things they can’t.  He can outmuscle defenders and use his arm strength to make throws that are truly special, like the touchdown to Diggs.  The others maybe make that throw, in part because Diggs was wide open, but Allen’s really special on a play like that. 

 

So, for Allen, it’s definitely “throw that win on the pile and get back to work.”  

 

With McDermott’s approach to the season, this is not the time the Bills are going to be dominant.  The Bills build to dominance through the season, trying to be good at everything, every week.  Under McDermott, the Bills know they will look ugly a few times in the first half of the season, but they hope to be the team no one wants to play in the second half.  By contrast, a team like the Ravens tries to be fantastic at one thing – running the ball, and hopes they can put together enough of a passing game to be multi-dimensional late in the season.  That’s why the Ravens tend to look good earlier than the Bills.

 

The Bills’ objective these days is to find a way to toss a win on the pile each week while they figure it all out.   It’s a little frustrating for fans to live through each week, but it’s the Bills’ style.  We’ve seen it before.  What’s encouraging is that this season, there’s so much talent, and McDermott is so good at what he does, that I expect to see a big pile of wins come December. 

[BringBackFlutie]

We're in good shape in the standings after yesterday.  So we can take a little time to figure it out like Sean likes to do.

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, BringBackFlutie said:

We're in good shape in the standings after yesterday.  So we can take a little time to figure it out like Sean likes to do.

Exactly.  Didn't want to be 0-2.   Happy to be 1-1 with the Dolphins and Pats, because I don't think either is going to pile up enough wins to challenge.  The task at hand is enough wins to get the home field.   That's where the loss to the Steelers hurt.  

 

The Jets are so pitiful.  I was not at all surprised to see Darnold lighting it up yesterday.   The Jets set themselves back three years or more with managing Darnold as badly as they did. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

In addition to what you said, we talked a lot this off-season about adding more speed to the offense.

 

I think that need is still there. 
 

Our WRs don’t seem to be creating the same separation they were last year. Nothing comes easy right now.

 

So that combination of wobbly, off target passes and less separation has made this passing offense look clunky.

 

Our only immediate hope is that Gabe Davis gets healthy and starts eating into Beasley’s reps at least.

 

Because we’re not seeing any explosive potential out of this offense.

 

Sanders is our “speed” guy ala Brown, but it looks right now as if the Bills have to string together 9 play drives to score.

Edited September 20, 2021 by Straight Hucklebuck

[BringBackFlutie]

Just now, Shaw66 said:

Exactly.  Didn't want to be 0-2.   Happy to be 1-1 with the Dolphins and Pats, because I don't think either is going to pile up enough wins to challenge.  The task at hand is enough wins to get the home field.   That's where the loss to the Steelers hurt.  

 

The Jets are so pitiful.  I was not at all surprised to see Darnold lighting it up yesterday.   The Jets set themselves back three years or more with managing Darnold as badly as they did. 

 

I think Pittsburgh will work themselves out of the race.  What matters to us will likely be the Chiefs loss.

 

And yeah, the Jets should've kept Darnold (although I'm not sure how high his ceiling is),  and I expect the Panthers to be right back in it this year. 

 

...pretty sure we sweep again, unless Allen doesn't break out of his slump, but I think he will.

[Shaw66]

6 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

In addition to what you said, we talked a lot this off-season about adding more speed to the offense.

 

I think that need is still there. 
 

Our WRs don’t seem to be creating the same separation they were last year. Nothing comes easy right now.

 

So that combination of wobbly, off target passes and less separation has made this passing offense look clunky.

 

Our only immediate hope is that Gabe Davis gets healthy and starts eating into Beasley’s reps at least.

 

Because we’re not seeing any explosive potential out of this offense.

 

Sanders is our “speed” guy ala Brown, but it looks right now as if the Bills have to string together 9 play drives to score.

We'll start to see Stevenson get mixed in here and there in a few weeks.  That will help. 

 

And for two weeks in a row, Sanders has gotten wide open deep. and Allen threw to another zip code.  Allen also forced Diggs to make a contested catch instead of leading him to a touchdown on another deep ball, and he also badly underthrew on another big play opportunity.  Those three passes were three opportunities for long touchdowns, and the Bills went 0-3.  If Allen completes those balls, the defense will be dropping deeper, and everything will work better.  I'm not saying that's the only answer to the passing issues, but it's one obvious answer - make good passes.  

[RoyBatty is alive]

29 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Exactly.  Didn't want to be 0-2.   Happy to be 1-1 with the Dolphins and Pats, because I don't think either is going to pile up enough wins to challenge.  The task at hand is enough wins to get the home field.   That's where the loss to the Steelers hurt.  

 

The Jets are so pitiful.  I was not at all surprised to see Darnold lighting it up yesterday.   The Jets set themselves back three years or more with managing Darnold as badly as they did. 

Guess what, the Jets are about to "Darnold" Zach Wilson as are the Jax Jaguars with Trevor Lawrence.  What kind of NYJet brain trust was behind the idea to have no veteran QB leaderships for Wilson and start him immediately. 

30 minutes ago, BringBackFlutie said:

 

I think Pittsburgh will work themselves out of the race.  What matters to us will likely be the Chiefs loss.

 

And yeah, the Jets should've kept Darnold (although I'm not sure how high his ceiling is),  and I expect the Panthers to be right back in it this year. 

 

...pretty sure we sweep again, unless Allen doesn't break out of his slump, but I think he will.

 

Too much water under that bridge, sometimes a trade is good for both player and team.  The Jets did get some value for Darnold.

[dorquemada]

29 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

We'll start to see Stevenson get mixed in here and there in a few weeks.  That will help. 

 

And for two weeks in a row, Sanders has gotten wide open deep. and Allen threw to another zip code.  Allen also forced Diggs to make a contested catch instead of leading him to a touchdown on another deep ball, and he also badly underthrew on another big play opportunity.  Those three passes were three opportunities for long touchdowns, and the Bills went 0-3.  If Allen completes those balls, the defense will be dropping deeper, and everything will work better.  I'm not saying that's the only answer to the passing issues, but it's one obvious answer - make good passes.  

 

I mentioned this in another thread, but on those long balls, and most others, he's throwing off the back foot.  Seeing him underthrow is just so strange, it reminded me of Kelly towards the end when he just didnt have the arm to force it long any more, and he would throw these pitching wedge passes that went nowhere

[CuseBill]

2 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

In addition to what you said, we talked a lot this off-season about adding more speed to the offense.

 

I think that need is still there. 
 

Our WRs don’t seem to be creating the same separation they were last year. Nothing comes easy right now.

 

So that combination of wobbly, off target passes and less separation has made this passing offense look clunky.

 

Our only immediate hope is that Gabe Davis gets healthy and starts eating into Beasley’s reps at least.

 

Because we’re not seeing any explosive potential out of this offense.

 

Sanders is our “speed” guy ala Brown, but it looks right now as if the Bills have to string together 9 play drives to score.

That great football mind, Matt Millen, would ask:  "Which kind of speed were we talking about, across the field or down the field?"  But in all seriousness, I think we do have enough speed on offense.  And I think we have guys who can create separation (Beasley, Davis) without being a speed burner.  Sanders has definitely shown he still has speed at 34.  Diggs, being our best route runner, can certainly get separation but he's getting a lot of attention.  We have Brieda, whose speed needs to be used with the right kind of play call, and I think we'll see that in future games.  Singletary showed some speed on his touchdown.  And as mentioned above, Stevenson will bring some speed to the game when we get him back.   I am not worried about having weapons.  I'm more worried about Josh settling down and getting better protection.  All we need him to do is make 4-5 better throws a game and we'll be fine. 

Edited September 20, 2021 by CuseBill

[Blainorama5]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

The Bills got great pressure on the quarterback, rushing four and five defenders.  Which four and five?   Well, that’s the problem for the opponent to worry about.  Sometimes the safeties are featured.  Against the Dolphins, it was White and Taron Johnson.

I could be absolutely wrong and it was just an opponent-specific plan to rush from the secondary early on, but also wouldn't surprise me if they're throwing in a bunch of plays like that to make sure they get seen on tape - to possibly confuse some of the younger, less experienced QBs they'll see this year.  Just a theory.

 

I'm starting to think as well, that McD's teams take about a half season to really get everything figured out and then really hit the gas.  We shall see of course...

 

Thanks as always for sharing your thoughts!

[appoo]

One thing I'll with regards to Allen is that the Phin had perhaps the best tandem of corners in the league, and Howard is making a case for best CB alive right now.  Josh may have struggled, but he was also facing elite corner talent. 

[Inigo Montoya]

Nice write up as usual Shaw.

 

Until last year's Josh Allen shows up, I just don't think we are legit Super Bowl contenders.  We can keep piling up wins with defense and a sputtering offense, but when the time comes to play playoff football we are not going to beat the Chiefs, Rams, Bucs, and maybe even the Browns without an elite QB.

 

It is still early in the season and there is time for Josh to come around.  The problem is that Mahomes, Brady, Lamar, Stafford, and even Mayfield are looking to be in midseason form already.  What's different with Josh?  I just don't know.  Let's hope it gets figured out quickly.  Washington is going to be a big test for this offense next week.

 

 

Edited September 20, 2021 by Inigo Montoya

[Shaw66]

29 minutes ago, Blainorama5 said:

I could be absolutely wrong and it was just an opponent-specific plan to rush from the secondary early on, but also wouldn't surprise me if they're throwing in a bunch of plays like that to make sure they get seen on tape - to possibly confuse some of the younger, less experienced QBs they'll see this year.  Just a theory.

 

I'm starting to think as well, that McD's teams take about a half season to really get everything figured out and then really hit the gas.  We shall see of course...

 

Thanks as always for sharing your thoughts!

The bolded part is my point.  That's what his teams do.   He wants to teach them so much that it simply isn't possible to have his fully developed team ready on opening day.   He's building all along.  The challenge is to find a way to win in the early weeks, when his team is truly a work in process.  

 

As for putting it on tape, that's really only part of it, and the less important part.   You're right, the plan to rush from the secondary was opponent specific, but it's also teaching the team how to play that way, so that the team knows how to do it in the future.   In Wednesday practice in December, when they're installing the defense for a game with playoff implications, it's a whole lot easier to install a defensive scheme that the team already knows than to teach it for the first time.   Because it takes less time, the team has more time to focus on other things.   Even more to the point, if they've taught the defense how to bring the secondary into the pass rush, then it becomes something they can go back to in halftime adjustments.  

 

McDermott wants his teams in their final form to be able to play any style, any time.   He wants to look at film of an opponent on Monday and think, "Okay, we've got something for that."

[Blainorama5]

I guess McD has to balance what he wants to teach them to have in his back pocket and how long it'll take to teach them new tricks - and do it effectively.  The risk will always be, too much experimentation that doesn't always go as planned, might lose you some games early on that you need for those prime playoff seeds.

[Shaw66]

14 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

Nice write up as usual Shaw.

 

Until last year's Josh Allen shows up, I just don't think we are legit Super Bowl contenders.  We can keep piling up wins with defense and a sputtering offense, but when the time comes to play playoff football we are not going to beat the Chiefs, Rams, Bucs, and maybe even the Browns without an elite QB.

 

It is still early in the season and there is time for Josh to come around.  The problem is that Mahomes, Brady, Lamar, Stafford, and even Mayfield are looking to be in midseason form already.  What's different with Josh?  I just don't know.  Let's hope it gets figured out quickly.  Washington is going to be a big test for this offense next week.

 

 

There's no question Allen hasn't been at his best, but he wasn't consistently at his best last season, either.   He started hot, but then he and the offensive struggle mightily.   The final five games of the season, he had four with very high passer ratings.   Several points:  It's a long season, it's the entire offense and not just Josh, and given McDermott's approach, it's not surprising early in the season.  

 

The fact that others have come out looking better isn't a concern to me, at least not yet, for the reasons that I'm talking about.  I already talked about the Ravens - they want to beat you by being as one-dimensional as you'll let them.   Mahomes and Brady are superstars, so we should never be surprised when they play well.   Allen isn't quite in that category yet.  McVay's teams seem to me to struggle down the stretch in seasons and playoffs.   He made a big splash with his new toy Goff a few years ago, and we saw how that went.  I'll wait and see on Stafford.   Mayfield has the ability to have big games.  He started hot last season, just like Allen, and folded down the stretch.  

 

If the Bills are 4-4 at the turn, and Allen hasn't exploded in some games, I'll worry.   But not today.   It simply isn't the way McDermott manages the season, and understanding that leaves me much less troubled by some of the troubling things we've seen in week 1 and 2.  

1 minute ago, Blainorama5 said:

I guess McD has to balance what he wants to teach them to have in his back pocket and how long it'll take to teach them new tricks - and do it effectively.  The risk will always be, too much experimentation that doesn't always go as planned, might lose you some games early on that you need for those prime playoff seeds.

Exactly.   And that's where McDermott relies on culture.   He expects to win his share of the early season games with grit, determination, and some talent.   But it's definitely a risk to play the season that way.  

 

On the other hand, the Bills defense completely shut down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens last January, and the Chiefs were defenseless against pretty much the same team.  So I'm not so sure we should be expecting ANY team to be really good week after week early in the season.   The Steelers did that last season, then folded down the stretch. 

[Pete]

I gave you the trophy already, just based on title. Now I am going to go read your post

 

[Blainorama5]

4 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

But it's definitely a risk to play the season that way. 

Agreed!  Here's hoping the gamble pays off.  So far so good...

 

Call me an old softy but I still like putting a beat down on the Phins-  however we do it!

[Logic]

Thanks for the post. I agree wholeheartedly that McDermott seems to follow the Belichick-esque "we won't be the team we're trying to become until November and December" model of team building. How many years did we see the Pats look mortal, even mediocre, in September, only to be unbeatable in December?

As for Josh Allen -- he who will decide just how far this team can go in each of the next 10 seasons or so...A poster on this forum made a great point yesterday (I've already forgotten who it was): The Josh Allen of 2019 was often trying to do too much. He felt like he had to win games by himself, so he forced things a lot of the time. He didn't often look calm and in control, because he felt he had to singlehandedly will the team to victory. In 2020, on the other hand, his motto of "just relax and realize there's quality talent around you now, you don't have to do everything by yourself" paid off handsomely. He was calm, collected, poised, relaxed. He was like a veteran point guard distributing the ball to his playmaking teammates. When he had to make WOW plays, he did, but in between those came a lot of calm ball distribution and in-control decision making.

The poster went on to say that if we look at 2021, it started with the national media predicting a Super Bowl trip and MVP candidacy for Allen. It started with him signing a mega contract and running out of the tunnel in Orchard Park to chants of "M-V-P! M-V-P!". Could it be that under the weight of this new attention and these new expectations, that the Josh who feels he has to do it all (in order to live up these new massive expectations) has returned? That the Josh who looked so calm because he realized he just had to do his one eleventh has yet to show his face? Perhaps Josh just has a case of the yips. Perhaps he just needs to take a deep breath and relax. His struggles certainly appear to be more mental than physical -- we all know he's not lacking in the latter category, but he may be struggling in the former at the moment. 

Perhaps learning to function as The Hunted rather than The Hunter is just a new challenge for Allen -- one which he has never faced in his life before. Perhaps his overcoming that mental hurdle is all that's needed to see him return to elite form. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

Nice write up as usual Shaw.

 

Until last year's Josh Allen shows up, I just don't think we are legit Super Bowl contenders.  We can keep piling up wins with defense and a sputtering offense, but when the time comes to play playoff football we are not going to beat the Chiefs, Rams, Bucs, and maybe even the Browns without an elite QB.

 

It is still early in the season and there is time for Josh to come around.  The problem is that Mahomes, Brady, Lamar, Stafford, and even Mayfield are looking to be in mediseason form already.  What's different with Josh?  I just don't know.  Let's hope it gets figured out quickly.  Washington is going to be a big test for this offense next week.

 

Last year early in the season, we were winning at times in spite of the offense. 

Week 1: we won handily against the Jets, because, Jets.

Week 2: we were leading 17-7, and our D let the Dolphins back in it, scoring 10 unanswered points to take the lead before we buckled down and put them away

Week 3: we were leading the Rams nicely 28-3 before our D let the Rams back in it with 29 unanswered points to take the lead before we clawed our way back to a final TD on an ugly drive that featured a facemask penalty by our QB (!!!), among other things.

Week 4: leading the Raiders 17-6 until the Raiders scored 10 unanswered to cut our lead to a single point.  Josh Allen got hurt just before halftime in the game, and people were talking about how the first 4 weeks were a "flash in the pan" and he was back to the "old Allen" until Week 9.

 

Going into the season, we were expecting to see a dominant D as we'd had in 2019 (#2 overall), and were hoping the offense would take enough of a step from 23-24th overall to maybe 10th, enough to give us a shot to go somewhere.  Overall, at that point in the season everyone was "whoaoah Allen's on Fire" but "where TF did our D go?"  Some, @Buffalo716 among others but he sticks out in my mind because he had some very specific things to say about how our secondary coverage had becomepredictable, pointed out that our D had been "solved" to some extent and needed to be revised.  And over the season, the D started to improve until by week 12 and on, it was pretty damned good.

 

Going into this season, we were expecting to see "Allen on Fire Part 2" and instead it looks like we're seeing the 2019 D Reprise but the offense has been "solved", and that's probably true in part.  It sounds simple that if your offense has put down too much film, just do something else, but what that "something else" is can only be guessed until you're actually in real games.  I think Daboll thought our OL would hold up better than it has (Feliciano told him "he'd be fine" against Cam Heyward) and that the solution would feature 4 WR with both Sanders and Beasley running option routes and Diggs running deep (or Sanders and Diggs running option routes and Sanders running deep.  And maybe it will, eventually; it should be remembered that both Diggs and Sanders were on Injury Report and not practicing, through most of training camp and pre-season, which was good for developing the other WR but bad for Allen developing timing with them.  Instead, defenses seem to have figured out how to bracket our option routes and get Allen and his option receivers on different pages, the timing on deep routes is off, and Allen is struggling to have good technique under pressure. 

 

So the offense is a bit of a mess, but I think we'll keep plugging and working on it.  As McDermott and Frazier kept telling us last season, the goal is to play your best football in November and December and then January

[Shaw66]

40 minutes ago, Logic said:

The poster went on to say that if we look at 2021, it started with the national media predicting a Super Bowl trip and MVP candidacy for Allen. It started with him signing a mega contract and running out of the tunnel in Orchard Park to chants of "M-V-P! M-V-P!". Could it be that under the weight of this new attention and these new expectations, that the Josh who feels he has to do it all (in order to live up these new massive expectations) has returned? That the Josh who looked so calm because he realized he just had to do his one eleventh has yet to show his face? Perhaps Josh just has a case of the yips. Perhaps he just needs to take a deep breath and relax. His struggles certainly appear to be more mental than physical -- we all know he's not lacking in the latter category, but he may be struggling in the former at the moment. 

 

I've had exactly this thought, except, well, not so well thought out.  For me, I think it's that Allen has been distracted by his notoriety, and now that the games have started he's found that he isn't in touch with the magic he had last season.  Yesterday he was throwing off balance and late, often with a defender menacing him, a lot like 2019.   Yesterday it seemed like he thought that was okay, that he could come up with a magic throw no matter how rushed he was.   

 

I commented last week how disappointed I was in his late game body language.  Yesterday it seemed there was some doubt in his eyes.  

 

He needs to get back on track.  I suspect he knows it and can feel it.  I hope so.  

Hap -

 

Thanks for the refresher about the beginning of last season.  I'd forgotten how troubling it was, and you didn't even get to Tennessee and KC.  

[Buffalo716]

47 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Last year early in the season, we were winning at times in spite of the offense. 

Week 1: we won handily against the Jets, because, Jets.

Week 2: we were leading 17-7, and our D let the Dolphins back in it, scoring 10 unanswered points to take the lead before we buckled down and put them away

Week 3: we were leading the Rams nicely 28-3 before our D let the Rams back in it with 29 unanswered points to take the lead before we clawed our way back to a final TD on an ugly drive that featured a facemask penalty by our QB (!!!), among other things.

Week 4: leading the Raiders 17-6 until the Raiders scored 10 unanswered to cut our lead to a single point.  Josh Allen got hurt just before halftime in the game, and people were talking about how the first 4 weeks were a "flash in the pan" and he was back to the "old Allen" until Week 9.

 

Going into the season, we were expecting to see a dominant D as we'd had in 2019 (#2 overall), and were hoping the offense would take enough of a step from 23-24th overall to maybe 10th, enough to give us a shot to go somewhere.  Overall, at that point in the season everyone was "whoaoah Allen's on Fire" but "where TF did our D go?"  Some, @Buffalo716 among others but he sticks out in my mind because he had some very specific things to say about how our secondary coverage had becomepredictable, pointed out that our D had been "solved" to some extent and needed to be revised.  And over the season, the D started to improve until by week 12 and on, it was pretty damned good.

 

Going into this season, we were expecting to see "Allen on Fire Part 2" and instead it looks like we're seeing the 2019 D Reprise but the offense has been "solved", and that's probably true in part.  It sounds simple that if your offense has put down too much film, just do something else, but what that "something else" is can only be guessed until you're actually in real games.  I think Daboll thought our OL would hold up better than it has (Feliciano told him "he'd be fine" against Cam Heyward) and that the solution would feature 4 WR with both Sanders and Beasley running option routes and Diggs running deep (or Sanders and Diggs running option routes and Sanders running deep.  And maybe it will, eventually; it should be remembered that both Diggs and Sanders were on Injury Report and not practicing, through most of training camp and pre-season, which was good for developing the other WR but bad for Allen developing timing with them.  Instead, defenses seem to have figured out how to bracket our option routes and get Allen and his option receivers on different pages, the timing on deep routes is off, and Allen is struggling to have good technique under pressure. 

 

So the offense is a bit of a mess, but I think we'll keep plugging and working on it.  As McDermott and Frazier kept telling us last season, the goal is to play your best football in November and December and then January

Thanks for the bump

 

I don't think our defense was solved but I do think they became too predictable in their play calling which stifles it 

 

They have definitely stopped being as predictable in their coverages

[Buddo]

Allen definitely isn’t firing on all cylinders. I have a few areas of concern there. Not least of which is that I don’t see him scanning the field as well as he was last year.

 

in fairness, both the ‘Fins and the Steelers have good secondaries, so there’s some mitigation there - there haven’t been so many opportunities, with more than one guy open.

 

 I will also question the O-Line play, and the play calling ( more so against the Steelers).

 

Regardless, the job got well done at the end of the day, yesterday, and the Defense is looking very promising - they were simply on fire yesterday.

 

All said and done, onwards and upwards to the WTF are they going to call themselves team 😀

[SoCal Deek]

I didn't look through all the responses but reading Shaw's take it occurs to me that these first two weeks of the season were/are really what would've normally been the last two weeks of the preseason.  Everyone is still feeling things out.  All cylinders are not firing as of yet, but I'm thinking it might just be the 'new normal' in the NFL with a shortened off-season, and a lengthened season. Let's see what happens next Sunday, and the next one.....

[Hapless Bills Fan]

26 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Thanks for the bump

 

I don't think our defense was solved but I do think they became too predictable in their play calling which stifles it 

 

They have definitely stopped being as predictable in their coverages

 

🤷‍♂️  If a defense is predictable, and therefore can be identified/neutralized - I think it may be a semantic issue as to whether it's "solved" or "stifled"

 

I feel the same about our offense right now, I feel we have become too predictable in our routes, and that (coupled with being unable to hold protection long enough for deeper routes in the absence of any doubt that we're passing) is effectively "solved" or "stifled"  Becoming less predictable by effectively running the ball "enough" to exploit dime and 7 DB coverage and get it off the field should help.

[dave mcbride]

3 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Guess what, the Jets are about to "Darnold" Zach Wilson as are the Jax Jaguars with Trevor Lawrence.  What kind of NYJet brain trust was behind the idea to have no veteran QB leaderships for Wilson and start him immediately. 

 

Too much water under that bridge, sometimes a trade is good for both player and team.  The Jets did get some value for Darnold.

I've long said that Darnold was a lot better than the Jets situation made him look. He has real talent. He's a classic example of a bad organization ruining a player's ability to perform at a high level. It didn't seem to ruin his potential, though, and the Panthers are the beneficiaries. 

[Buffalo716]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

🤷‍♂️  If a defense is predictable, and therefore can be identified/neutralized - I think it may be a semantic issue as to whether it's "solved" or "stifled"

 

I feel the same about our offense right now, I feel we have become too predictable in our routes, and that (coupled with being unable to hold protection long enough for deeper routes in the absence of any doubt that we're passing) is effectively "solved" or "stifled"  Becoming less predictable by effectively running the ball "enough" to exploit dime and 7 DB coverage and get it off the field should help.

Our offense and route combinations are absolutely predictable 

 

The Hallmark of the  NFL is to stay ever changing.. you can't run the same combinations on the same down and distance every week 

 

Coordinators are way too smart and they will figure it out

 

Adapt is the name of the game

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Our offense and route combinations are absolutely predictable 

 

The Hallmark of the  NFL is to stay ever changing.. you can't run the same combinations on the same down and distance every week 

 

Coordinators are way too smart and they will figure it out

 

Adapt is the name of the game

 

So there we have it. 

A strong why it appears our WR are getting less separation, Allen is taking more time to try to find someone open, and the OL can't hold up.

 

It's rather disappointing that Daboll had all summer and didn't come up with new or less predictable combinations.

[GoBills808]

19 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Our offense and route combinations are absolutely predictable 

 

The Hallmark of the  NFL is to stay ever changing.. you can't run the same combinations on the same down and distance every week 

 

Coordinators are way too smart and they will figure it out

 

Adapt is the name of the game

 

If you watch the 2nd quarter INT you realize pretty quickly this is true; @ the 4:30 mark of the video

 

 

 

Diggs' drag behind Davis deeper slant to clear but the MLB barely moves off his spot over the middle and worse, the RDT and RDE don't even bother to rush, they just stay in the throwing lane and put up their hands to force the throw into a bad window. Dolphins 100% knew that look and how to defeat it.

[ctk232]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

Credit to that poster, as that is what resonates most with me after seeing Allen’s play the past two weeks. First, what we know about Allen’s mentality is that he isn’t one to rest on his laurels after being handed the contract, media appellations, and general expectations - it’s that he will do anything to meet all of them. In line with the poster’s comparison with 2019 Josh, this would seem to dictate his performance this season thus far in trying to do too much in proving these expectations. Last year his composure made all the difference, and with this season so far it seems like he’s returned to the do it all mentality. The assurance here being it’s all totally correctable and he will address it as the season progresses.

 

Second, to contribute something to this thread - the idea of 2019 Josh returning, the one constantly throwing on his back foot or off-balanced, was also one who looked like he didn’t trust his OL in front of him. Last year we saw a Brady-esque statue form from Allen, and his accuracy improved tremendously. I need to dig into the OL metrics, but an armchair’s perspective has me seeing Allen distrusting his OL like that of 2019 - and it’s not entirely unwarranted. Dawkins, Feliciano, and Williams have all regressed, and Ingram and Watt made a considerable impression in week one. I hope this changes too as we go forward, but right now it’s my biggest concern as OL play impacts how everyone else executes and performs. I guess we’ll see against a stout WFT front this week.

Edited September 20, 2021 by ctk232

[clayboy54]

13 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So there we have it. 

A strong why it appears our WR are getting less separation, Allen is taking more time to try to find someone open, and the OL can't hold up.

 

It's rather disappointing that Daboll had all summer and didn't come up with new or less predictable combinations.

In the postgame interviews, it was said that Daboll was installing new plays and blocking schemes on Saturday. This is what you're asking for, albeit a little late. It looks like although sloppy, they worked. It seems obvious that they're working on it and they'll eventually find the right combination.

 

After all, you never know if what you've got will work until it either does or doesn't on Sundays. If it doesn't you just have to make some changes.

[Shaw66]

36 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I feel the same about our offense right now, I feel we have become too predictable in our routes, and that (coupled with being unable to hold protection long enough for deeper routes in the absence of any doubt that we're passing) is effectively "solved" or "stifled"  Becoming less predictable by effectively running the ball "enough" to exploit dime and 7 DB coverage and get it off the field should help.

Far be it from me to explain how he does it, but lt seems that part of Andy Reid's continuing success is that every week he layers on a few brand new wrinkles.   Different motions, a few different plays.  And I think he then adjusts their existing scheme to run off those motions.  The effect is that he freezes one or a few defenders for a split second, and that allows receivers running the same routes they ran last week to get separation.   The defender is ready for that route, the defense has prepared for it, but the new looks give the receivers the momentary edge they need. 

 

Every week, it's some new looks, but they aren't overhauling the offense every week.   It's simple but detailed creativity to get an edge. 

 

When your offense is running three or four new plays, and disguising 15 old plays to look like the new plays, the defense is put back on their heals, and then here comes the steamroller. 

 

I don't see with the Bills, at least not yet.   

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

If you watch the 2nd quarter INT you realize pretty quickly this is true; @ the 4:30 mark of the video

 

 

 

Diggs' drag behind Davis deeper slant to clear but the MLB barely moves off his spot over the middle and worse, the RDT and RDE don't even bother to rush, they just stay in the throwing lane and put up their hands to force the throw into a bad window. Dolphins 100% knew that look and how to defeat it.

 

You mean this:

 

Geesh, plenty of blame to go around there.

 

Allen appears to be staring down Diggs all the way.  Whether or not they knew what was coming earlier, they certainly do at this point.  He could at least be glancing at Beasley to the bottom L, although Beasley would be lucky to get 4 yards on it.  Feliciano and Dawkins have been beaten like drums, meaning there would be no time for a deeper route or more separation to develop with Davis.   And Davis is not doing as much as he could to "sell" his route as a realistic option - he slows up before Allen throws and I don't believe he thinks the ball is coming his way.

 

But yeah, the Dolphins are 100% like "we've seen this movie before and we know how the Bills want it to end"

[Buffalo716]

21 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So there we have it. 

A strong why it appears our WR are getting less separation, Allen is taking more time to try to find someone open, and the OL can't hold up.

 

It's rather disappointing that Daboll had all summer and didn't come up with new or less predictable combinations.

He may have.. he may be not trying to put it all on film because it's a long season

 

But the predictability in the route combinations has to change up 

 

He runs a combo called INC (In + curl ) 

 

Digs and Beasley are a great one two for that concept... Problem is on third and five... Coordinators know this concept comes a lot 

 

Maybe.. instead of the in for diggs and curl for Beasley.. let diggs take the top off... And run Beasley on an out behind it

 

Just have to switch route combinations up sometimes

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, Buffalo716 said:

He may have.. he may be not trying to put it all on film because it's a long season

 

But the predictability in the route combinations has to change up 

 

He runs a combo called INC (In + curl ) 

 

Digs and Beasley are a great one two for that concept... Problem is on third and five... Coordinators know this concept comes a lot 

 

Maybe.. instead of the in for diggs and curl for Beasley.. let diggs take the top off... And run Beasley on an out behind it

 

Just have to switch route combinations up sometimes

 

So this is saying that we didn't take advantage of deep enough self-scouting over the summer - OR that we self-scouted, but thought we execute well enough to make it work even if they know it's coming.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

You mean this:

 

Geesh, plenty of blame to go around there.

 

Allen appears to be staring down Diggs all the way.  Whether or not they knew what was coming earlier, they certainly do at this point.  He could at least be glancing at Beasley to the bottom L, although Beasley would be lucky to get 4 yards on it.  Feliciano and Dawkins have been beaten like drums, meaning there would be no time for a deeper route or more separation to develop with Davis.   And Davis is not doing as much as he could to "sell" his route as a realistic option - he slows up before Allen throws and I don't believe he thinks the ball is coming his way.

 

But yeah, the Dolphins are 100% like "we've seen this movie before and we know how the Bills want it to end"

Yep but re: Davis- that’s a cover1 look i believe so there’s single high safety over the top. He’s not an option like you say. 
 

very vanilla play design and too similar to what we ran last year

[Buffalo716]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So this is saying that we didn't take advantage of deep enough self-scouting over the summer - OR that we self-scouted, but thought we execute well enough to make it work even if they know it's coming.

More inclined to think that , they think they're scheme works

 

And that if they execute it well enough it can't be stopped

 

Problem is defensive coordinators are getting paid to stop them

[Shaw66]

25 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

More inclined to think that , they think they're scheme works

 

And that if they execute it well enough it can't be stopped

 

Problem is defensive coordinators are getting paid to stop them

This is exactly right.  I've mentioned before that I haven't been a big Daboll fan, and I was a little perplexed that some people thought he was the next sure-fire head coaching candidate.  

 

To date, I'd say Daboll is gimmicky, but not creative in layering on wrinkle after wrinkle.  Reid forces you to defend last season's offense, with a new layer every game.  It just gets more and more complicated.   Bills have a good base, but I don't think we're seeing the additional layers of complication.  

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said:

Our offense and route combinations are absolutely predictable 

 

The Hallmark of the  NFL is to stay ever changing.. you can't run the same combinations on the same down and distance every week 

 

Coordinators are way too smart and they will figure it out

 

Adapt is the name of the game

 

So true....its not even a season to season adjustment anymore. Each week you gotta switch it up. Tape exists and whatever worked week 2 won't work against Washington. We're all hoping JA works out this wierd funk and the D stays hot. As Shaw says keep putting W's on the pile and don't get to high on wins or too low on loses. 

[SoCal Deek]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

So true....its not even a season to season adjustment anymore. Each week you gotta switch it up. Tape exists and whatever worked week 2 won't work against Washington. We're all hoping JA works out this wierd funk and the D stays hot. As Shaw says keep putting W's on the pile and don't get to high on wins or too low on loses. 

So how about Daboll just watches the Chiefs tape from the week before and runs THOSE plays? That’d save a lot of time and aggravation. Someone buy OBD a Directv subscription!

[GoBills808]

12 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

So how about Daboll just watches the Chiefs tape from the week before and runs THOSE plays? That’d save a lot of time and aggravation. Someone buy OBD a Directv subscription!

Personnel. Specifically Kelce