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Joe B's 53 man roster prediction


Kwai San

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6 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Vosean Joseph.

 

Another way to look at it is that 3 late round picks from 2018 are no longer on the roster (Teller, McCloud, Proehl); one from 2019 (Vosean Joseph) is gone and Tommy Sweeney may be IR'd again (which would almost certainly see him cut next year) or waived/injured, which would make 2; Jake Fromm is predicted to be cut from 2020.

 

I don't think we can conclude that Beane will keep a guy just because he was a draft pick.

 

What has Hodgins done that makes him seem so valuable to take a roster spot?  Did he even have a reception in the Lions game before he left, injured?

He just returned from injury this week, but we have no word on whether he's considered conditioned or recovered enough to play Saturday?  Have we heard anything about him in practice?  Is he even taking 1:1 or 11 on 11 drills yet?

 

 

Maybe.  But "That was Then, This is Now."  I think we as fans always tend to overvalue our bottom of the roster guys, while to the rest of the league there's a new crop of talented WR coming out this season who haven't been on IR last year and injured most of camp this year.

 

 

I agree with every word of this. What is the obsession with Isaiah Hodgins? What has he done to be worth "protecting"? I am not surprised Joe has him in though. He is a bit of a favourite of Joe's. Could they cut Hollister and Jones to re-sign them, yes. I think cutting Hollister and Breida is more likely because Breida also isn't subject to waivers and can be cut and re-signed more cheaply and Breida is slated here for a backup role unless Devin or Zack get hurt whereas Jones is slated to be their starting gunner so I think the balance of which, if any, you are willing to risk changes slightly. 

 

Let's say they do cut two people.... who are the two IR moves. Harrison Phillips maybe, okay, but unless what they told us yesterday on Isaiah was a lie I'd be surprised if they IR him at this stage. If they think he is 2 to 3 weeks away (meaning he is touch and go for week 1 but should be back week 2) then I find it hard to imagine them putting him out until week 4 unnecessarily. Possibly Sweeney?

 

 

If I had to guess right now at how they end up after their moves I'd go:

 

QB (2) - JA & MT

RB (5) - DS, ZM, MB, TJ, RG (as a FB)

TE (2) - DK, JH

WR (7) - SD, ES, CB, GD, IMc, MS, JK

OL (9) - DD, JF, MM, CF, DW, SB, IB, RB, TD

- - - - 

DE (7) - JH, MA, GR, CB, AJE, EO, DJ

DT (4) - SL, EO, JZ, VB

LB (5) - TE, MM, AJK, TM, AS

CB (5) - TW, LW, TJ, DJ, SN

S (4) - MH, JP, JJ, DH

- - - -

ST (3) - RF, TB, MH

 

Starting the season on IR: Harrison Phillips and Tommy Sweeney (with Hollister and either Breida / Jones doing the cut to re-sign).

 

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14 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Wow, this is a bit "Edgy" in several directions.

 

For reference, here is a Buffalo Rumblings article on 2020 53 man roster.

QB (3), RB (4 w/o Gilliam) WR (6) TE (4 incl Gilliam) OT (4 counting Ford) IOL (6 not counting Ford) DE (5) DT (4) LB (6) CB (5) S (3) Specialist (3)

 

So fundamentally, Joe B has the Bills loading up on WR (+2) and DL(+3) and going heavier on S(+1) at the expense of RB (-1), TE (-2), OL (-1), LB (-1) and the "free square" of not keeping an extra QB.

 

Basically, I think this is a little bit of a "cop out" by Joe; he sees an excess of talent at WR and DL and instead of making hard choices says "keep 'em all"

 

Notable or Controversial:

RB: the absence of ST Ace Gunner Taiwan Jones

WR: keeping 8 WR - I would say, Not Gonna Happen.  we kept 6 last year.  Hard choices will have to be made.

TE/FB - since Gilliam is a hybrid, keeping only 1 TE?  By FAR the Bills most common set last year was (1,1).  I don't see us moving 100% away from that, so Nope.

OT - it's possible that we keep only rookie OTs as backup, as Hart has looked on par, and both Bates and Ford can play T in a pinch.

DE and DT: it's again possible that we keep 7 DE, but that's going to go with keeping 4 DT and having Basham play DT at times.

LB: Last year we kept 6.  I know we predominantly stay in nickel, but since Matakevich and Smith are ST staples they're risking injury every ST snap, making Klein effectively the only reserve.

CB: Last year we kept 5, and it really wasn't enough at times.

 

Hap - you did read the article no?  I would say the explanations in the article address many of your points....I agree on the surface it seems like a WOW but under the hood of his rational it kinda makes sense.....

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4 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Can’t imagine a team is going to put Hodgins on their 53 if the Bills were to try to stash him - dude has zero tape.

 

And has been constantly hurt and was a 6th round pick to begin with possessing sub optimal speed for the NFL. There is next to no chance someone puts him on their 53.... but Joe B has a sneaky man crush on him. 

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7 minutes ago, krf139 said:

It boggles my mind how Beane refuses to substantially upgrade the TE position year after year, while watching first hand the impact an elite TE can have on the game 

He tried to get Gronk.  The rest of the elite TE’s in NFL weren’t highly drafted or big money free agents.  Seems like a position where you gotta either be patient or lucky.  

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19 minutes ago, krf139 said:

It boggles my mind how Beane refuses to substantially upgrade the TE position year after year, while watching first hand the impact an elite TE can have on the game 

 

I'm actually content with what he's done this year.  Knox & Hollister are both young, athletic tight ends with upside.  Knox, especially.

 

Where should we go to find one of these elite TE's?  They're pretty rare and, as stated above, you've either got to draft one crazy high (Hockenson/Pitts) or be patient in developing one you hope will pan out.  Kelce, Kittle and Waller took time.   

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23 minutes ago, krf139 said:

It boggles my mind how Beane refuses to substantially upgrade the TE position year after year, while watching first hand the impact an elite TE can have on the game 

I mean he has tried from what I understand. Got to remember other side has a say too. Beane can't do it alone. He's good but not that good . Anyway, I think Holister may surprise and may be an upgrade. Will see...

Edited by Sheneneh Jenkins
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11 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Pretty sure waivers works on accrued and not credited seasons.  Very sure someone will set me straight if I'm wrong

 

Yes it's accrued seasons.  Credited is for pensions/benefits etc.  They can be different.

The CBA language is weird about the 6 game criteria.

Here is an article AFTER the new CBA from last year.

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/2020-nfl-free-agency-glossary-all-the-terms-you-need-to-know-0ap3000001106817

Accrued seasons: Used to determine a player's free agency status (unrestricted, restricted, exclusive rights). In order to accrue a season, a player must have been on (or should have been on*) full-play status for at least six regular-season games in a given season. A player under contract must report to his team's training camp on his mandatory reporting date in order to earn an accrued season. If player holds out his services for a "material period of time," he is also at risk of not accruing a season.

*When I write "or should have been on," note that this is the language used in the CBA. Basically, in order to accrue a season, the player needs to be on the team's active/inactive list, injured reserve or reserve PUP for at least six regular-season games in a given season.

 

I believe (and as you said unless someone has better facts) that the 2020 CBA changed what the previous CBA's criteria was.

Kumerow has 3 accrued seasons because he was on IR in 2018 with GB along with his 5 games.

 

One way I believe this is true is Hodgins was on IR all last year and still has an accrued season.  I don't think he would of got that with the old CBA.

The source I use for accrued seasons is OTC.  It shows Kumerow with 3 and Hodgins at 1.

Other sources show conflict with this but I use OTC and I haven't seen a situation where they were wrong YET.

FWIW.

https://overthecap.com/player/jake-kumerow/4455/

https://overthecap.com/player/isaiah-hodgins/8947/

 

 

 

 

 

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I dunno, and I guess this is an aside in this thread, but with games expanding and given injuries and the current situation, I just think rosters should be expanded. I mean, not drastically. Like… to 55 or 57. And dress that many for games.

 

Full-time guys. The expanded practice squad and call-up rules are cool, but those guys are kinda lesser-thans who can be scooped up elsewhere on a whim.

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1 hour ago, UConn James said:

I dunno, and I guess this is an aside in this thread, but with games expanding and given injuries and the current situation, I just think rosters should be expanded. I mean, not drastically. Like… to 55 or 57. And dress that many for games.

 

Full-time guys. The expanded practice squad and call-up rules are cool, but those guys are kinda lesser-thans who can be scooped up elsewhere on a whim.

For some odd reason the NFL stuck at 53 man rosters and NFLPA is okay with it. I agree with your sentiment but until the NFLPA stance changes this we'll just see what have been seeing for awhile.

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On 8/26/2021 at 12:30 PM, Lagoon Blues said:

I just dont see Dawson Knox, Reggie Gilliam being the only TE's on the roster.

Joe is normally pretty spot on but I think he missed the mark with Hollister getting released.  I can’t see the Bills not having a capable backup for Dawson Knox both from a performance or health standpoint.  I definitely don’t feel he’s done anything to gain their unwavering confidence 

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10 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

Joe is normally pretty spot on but I think he missed the mark with Hollister getting released.  I can’t see the Bills not having a capable backup for Dawson Knox both from a performance or health standpoint.  I definitely don’t feel he’s done anything to gain their unwavering confidence 


In the article he has Hollister being re-signed while McKenzie goes to IR.

 

I don’t see either.  I think there has to be more track record/trust/depth at positionto do the cut/resign thing

 

And unless they’re fibbing about McK, he’s not an IR candidate

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