How did Jaret Patterson go undrafted??

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, gonzo1105 said:

Undervalued position, small frame, not fast enough, plus as you get to the latter stages of the draft teams are looking for guys who can contribute on Special Teams. Patterson doesn’t really have that on film and his size would prob scare teams away from that idea.  I thought maybe someone would take a shot in 6-7 but they didn’t. He’ll get his chance to prove himself as a UDFA. If he’s got the goods he’ll land somewhere as a 3rd down back.

 

How do people keep saying "not fast enough"? He ran a 4.51. I can definitively tell you that is higher than the majority of RBs.

 

And I am saying this based on empirical evidence not some random idea in my mind. I logged every players combine data from 1999 to 2016. Almost 7200 players.  The numbers haven't changed much positionally over the years.

 

There were 444 RBs that had 40 times. The average RB ran a 4.57.

Patterson is not "slow". He has above average speed for an RB. If you want to refute this data then base it on some other factual information not some random nonsense you make up in your own mind.

Edited May 4, 2021 by Big Turk

[Irv]

15 hours ago, Limeaid said:

 

Thanks for contributing to a facts free discussion.

 

Your obsession with me while flattering, is unecessary.  

[PromoTheRobot]

You know I'm a big UB booster, so I've seen every game Patterson played. The big knocks on him are his size, the fact he rarely got involved in the passing game and his middling speed. Also it's hard to separate how much of his success was thanks to his blocking, which was excellent.

 

That said he has excellent balance and can make people miss him in a phone booth. He also has a bit of the "Josh Allen disrespect" thing driving him. No D1 schools other then Buffalo offered him a scholarship. (Like another kid named Khalil Mack.)

 

I think going to the WFT is a great move. Not only is it his home town team, their RB room is not impressive. He's got a chance to stick there.

[Big Turk]

49 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

You know I'm a big UB booster, so I've seen every game Patterson played. The big knocks on him are his size, the fact he rarely got involved in the passing game and his middling speed. Also it's hard to separate how much of his success was thanks to his blocking, which was excellent.

 

That said he has excellent balance and can make people miss him in a phone booth. He also has a bit of the "Josh Allen disrespect" thing driving him. No D1 schools other then Buffalo offered him a scholarship. (Like another kid named Khalil Mack.)

 

I think going to the WFT is a great move. Not only is it his home town team, their RB room is not impressive. He's got a chance to stick there.

 

Again with middling speed. He ran a 4.51.

The average RB over 17 years worth of Combine data ran a 4.57. He is faster than average and faster than both Moss and Motor.

[gonzo1105]

42 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

How do people keep saying "not fast enough"? He ran a 4.51. I can definitively tell you that is higher than the majority of RBs.

 

And I am saying this based on empirical evidence not some random idea in my mind. I logged every players combine data from 1999 to 2016. Almost 7200 players.  The numbers haven't changed much positionally over the years.

 

There were 444 RBs that had 40 times. The average RB ran a 4.57.

Patterson is not "slow". He has above average speed for an RB. If you want to refute this data then base it on some other factual information not some random nonsense you make up in your own mind.

Okay so tell me how many of the 5’6 RBs that ran 4.51 got drafted. It’s a little different if a guy is 5’11 215 and ran 4.55 versus a guy 5’6 195 who ran 4.51

 

Travis Etienne 5’10 215 4.33 40

Najee Harris 6’1 232 No 40 time projected 4.52

 

Javonte Williams 5’10 220 4.55

Michael Carter 5’8 201 4.50

Trey Sermon 6’0 215 4.57

Rhamondre Stevenson 5’11 230 4.63

Kenny Gainwell 5’8 201 4.41

Jermar Jefferson 5’10 206 4.56

Larry Rountree 5’10 211 4.62

Khalil Herbert  5’9 210 4.46

Chubby Hubbard 6’0 210 4.48

Kylin Hill 5’11 214 4.55

Chris Evans 5’11 211 4.44

Kene Nwangwu 6 ‘ 210 4.32

Jake Funk 5’10 206 4.47

Eli Mitchell 5’10 201 4.43

Gary Brightwell 6’1 218 4.62

Gerrid Doaks 5’11 228 4.57

 

 

These are all the RBs who got drafted this year, Patterson would have been the shortest by 2 inches, weighed the least by 11 pounds compared to the 2nd smallest. He didn’t play STs or catch the ball much on film. Yes he’s faster then some of the guys on the list but most of those guys are significantly bigger than he is. Yes he’s a great college player and he’ll get his chance but the data on height weigh speed clearly would show you why he didn’t get drafted. Btw those are all pro day results not university height weight speed data

[Albany,n.y.]

I remember 2 years ago when another UB player, Tyree Jackson, went undrafted.  There were UB homers who were asking why Josh Allen was the 7th pick in the prior draft yet Tyree, who they envisioned as similar to Josh went undrafted.  Well, the Bills signed him as an UFA, cut him & he didn't even end up on the practice squad.  Then he went to the XFL and originally was behind Cardale Jones.  After the XFL folded he didn't play in the NFL this past season.  Recently Jackson resurfaced as a TE & signed with the Eagles this offseason.  Let's hope the Bills didn't blow it & he turns into another Logan Thomas.  

[BigPappy]

20 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

Could be a medical issue that the public is not privy to, could also be something on the tape that jumped out to many pro-scouts as being a big red flag. We don't really know what drives teams evaluations. He caught on with the WFT so he will get his chance in the pros. 

 

Or.... it could be that the 32 NFL teams front offices are better at evaluating talent than, say.... pretty much every member of this message board and every team message board that exists. 🤷‍♂️ just saying.  

[Big Turk]

8 minutes ago, BigPappy said:

 

Or.... it could be that the 32 NFL teams front offices are better at evaluating talent than, say.... pretty much every member of this message board and every team message board that exists. 🤷‍♂️ just saying.  

 

Are they though? Because from where I am sitting they have a pretty bad hit rate overall for as much time and effort and knowledge advantages they have over all the posters...

 

No offense but if someone does something everyday for a living on a professional basis and has a huge financial backing and lots of other people involved to check and double check their work, I would expect something better than maybe a 10-15% improvement over what an average poster does who just watches a bunch of games and/or highlights in their spare time.

 

Sometimes I think they suffer from paralysis by analysis where they have too many points of information.

 

 

Edited May 4, 2021 by Big Turk

[Slippery Rubber Mats]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

Again with middling speed. He ran a 4.51.

The average RB over 17 years worth of Combine data ran a 4.57. He is faster than average and faster than both Moss and Motor.

 

Because we dont need a 40 time on his best day to know he isn't the fastest. We've watched him play football live for years.

[DCOrange]

3 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

How do people keep saying "not fast enough"? He ran a 4.51. I can definitively tell you that is higher than the majority of RBs.

 

And I am saying this based on empirical evidence not some random idea in my mind. I logged every players combine data from 1999 to 2016. Almost 7200 players.  The numbers haven't changed much positionally over the years.

 

There were 444 RBs that had 40 times. The average RB ran a 4.57.

Patterson is not "slow". He has above average speed for an RB. If you want to refute this data then base it on some other factual information not some random nonsense you make up in your own mind.

 

FWIW, Patterson's listed 40 time on most sites is a 4.59 from the Pro Day, including places like PlayerProfiler.com that adjusted that to a 4.64 because of the fact that it was hand-timed and those are, on average, 0.05 seconds faster than their real times.

 

Obviously a pretty big difference between a 4.51 and a 4.64.

 

Based on the times that are in The Athletic's draft guide, Patterson was a 4.58. The average RB this year was a 4.54 and the average drafted RB was a 4.51.

Edited May 4, 2021 by DCOrange

[frostbitmic]

Anybody who rushes for 409 yards and 8 TD's in one game and 301 4 TD's in another, deserves a shot in the NFL. In 6 games last year he ran for 1072 yards and 19 TD's.

[DCOrange]

Still waiting for potential 1st round pick Anthony Johnson to get his first NFL snap too lol

[PromoTheRobot]

3 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Again with middling speed. He ran a 4.51.

The average RB over 17 years worth of Combine data ran a 4.57. He is faster than average and faster than both Moss and Motor.

 

I'm not saying he was a sloth but he rarely outran defenders in the open field. Patterson's best quality is his elusiveness. Being short his center of gravity was so low he could make cuts that broke ankles. I'm rooting for him in DC.

1 hour ago, DCOrange said:

Still waiting for potential 1st round pick Anthony Johnson to get his first NFL snap too lol

 

Yeah, that was me. I was certain he was destined for the NFL. I think he's still on the Steelers PS.

[Mr. WEO]

Mystery solved...

 

[DCOrange]

22 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

I'm not saying he was a sloth but he rarely outran defenders in the open field. Patterson's best quality is his elusiveness. Being short his center of gravity was so low he could make cuts that broke ankles. I'm rooting for him in DC.

 

Yeah, that was me. I was certain he was destined for the NFL. I think he's still on the Steelers PS.

Yeah I looked it up out of curiosity when I saw this thread. He got a futures/reserve contract.

[Mr. WEO]

2 hours ago, frostbitmic said:

Anybody who rushes for 409 yards and 8 TD's in one game and 301 4 TD's in another, deserves a shot in the NFL. In 6 games last year he ran for 1072 yards and 19 TD's.

 

 

Maybe when Washington plays Kent State or Bowling Green!

 

His total for the rest of the season was 362 yards, 7 TDs. 

[IgotBILLStopay]

18 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

Maybe when Washington plays Kent State or Bowling Green!

 

His total for the rest of the season was 362 yards, 7 TDs. 

Even in those games he then averaged 90 yds 2 Tds no? If he does well, the Bills will sure look stupid since this was their backyard talent (like the Dolphins would if Jaelan Phillips sucks). 

 

That being said, for the late rounders and UDFAs especially, we need to trust the Bills' evaluations. Beane has done decently so far. As a fan who watched some Patterson tape, he sure looked draftable - but maybe he was not an improvement over Antonio Williams - so had no chance of making the Bills roster. While the Bills do not have a home run hitter in the RB room yet (surprise me Motor and Moss), they do have depth with Breida and Williams - so as far as RB in the draft is concerned maybe the thought is - give me a clear upgrade or dont gimme anything - a philosophy that is logical.

[dollars 2 donuts]

On 5/3/2021 at 4:52 PM, BuffBillsForLife said:

Too small without being lightning fast and he got injured at the end of the year.

 

@PromoTheRobot

 

Jut to be clear with that, in my opinion, it wasn't an "ah shucks,that is too bad" injury.  It was a, "let's remove this guy so we can win the MAC" injury.   

[4thandGoal]

He didnt get drafted because he is not that good!!  

 

[Marvlevydraftdaygenius]

Simple.  No combine.

[Mango]

On 5/3/2021 at 2:27 PM, Buffalo716 said:

There's still just more good football players than draft positions , and having prerequisite size still matters

 

Being 5'6 absolutely pushes him down boards.. if he was 5'10 he would have been drafted 100% 

 

It doesn't matter because there are tons of undrafted running backs that make it

 

 

 

Not to mention with the way the last year and half has gone players from lesser programs get an even smaller look than usual. 

I didn't watch a ton of UB games but reading some scouting reports I get why he would be a borderline UDFA. Ran a 4.51 and is small. Not a great pass catching option. Hesitates to hit the hole. Does not trust his running lane. Takes a long to accelerate out of cuts. 

That said, even though we already seem to have a version of him on the roster, the kid seems to have a huge chip on his shoulder. I would not have been mad if Buffalo took a flyer in the 7th or UDFA. 

[Mr. WEO]

4 hours ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Even in those games he then averaged 90 yds 2 Tds no? If he does well, the Bills will sure look stupid since this was their backyard talent (like the Dolphins would if Jaelan Phillips sucks). 

 

That being said, for the late rounders and UDFAs especially, we need to trust the Bills' evaluations. Beane has done decently so far. As a fan who watched some Patterson tape, he sure looked draftable - but maybe he was not an improvement over Antonio Williams - so had no chance of making the Bills roster. While the Bills do not have a home run hitter in the RB room yet (surprise me Motor and Moss), they do have depth with Breida and Williams - so as far as RB in the draft is concerned maybe the thought is - give me a clear upgrade or dont gimme anything - a philosophy that is logical.

 

In the biggest game of the year he had 27 yards. 

 

Beane's trustworthy evaluation said "hard pass".

[Buffalo716]

5 hours ago, Mango said:

 

Not to mention with the way the last year and half has gone players from lesser programs get an even smaller look than usual. 

I didn't watch a ton of UB games but reading some scouting reports I get why he would be a borderline UDFA. Ran a 4.51 and is small. Not a great pass catching option. Hesitates to hit the hole. Does not trust his running lane. Takes a long to accelerate out of cuts. 

That said, even though we already seem to have a version of him on the roster, the kid seems to have a huge chip on his shoulder. I would not have been mad if Buffalo took a flyer in the 7th or UDFA. 

I wouldn't be surprised if he carves out a better career than lots of kids from the class 

 

30% of League is still undrafted free agents.. and he runs with the power and agility to get it done

 

 

Edited May 5, 2021 by Buffalo716

[Mango]

59 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

I wouldn't be surprised if he carves out a better career than lots of kids from the class 

 

30% of League is still undrafted free agents.. and he runs with the power and agility to get it done

 

 

Maybe, maybe not. There were something like 18 RB’s drafted, and this seemed to be a weak class in a weird year, so he has as good a shot as any to be better than “a bunch”. (however many that is)

 

 

[BigAl2526]

He's small and has no elite traits.  He's a good RB who played in a system that enabled some gaudy stats.  

[Buffalo716]

1 minute ago, BigAl2526 said:

He's small and has no elite traits.  He's a good RB who played in a system that enabled some gaudy stats.  

His short area elusiveness is absolutely elite 

 

He makes people fall over in a phone booth like singletary or shady

14 minutes ago, Mango said:

Maybe, maybe not. There were something like 18 RB’s drafted, and this seemed to be a weak class in a weird year, so he has as good a shot as any to be better than “a bunch”. (however many that is)

 

 

A weaker class overall. I would never classify it as a weak running back class 

 

There were 20 running backs drafted, and about 30 of them maybe 35 had draftable grades 

 

There were a bunch of backs with mid to late round grades.. and they pushed each other down the board, getting selected more on scheme fit 

 

I can honestly see him having just as good as a career as Devin singletary

 

 

[BigAl2526]

19 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

His short area elusiveness is absolutely elite 

 

He makes people fall over in a phone booth like singletary or shady

 

I'll grant you that, but as you say, his elusiveness is similar to Singletary's who is already with the Bills.  He doesn't give the Bills anything they don't have already.

[Buffalo716]

16 minutes ago, BigAl2526 said:

I'll grant you that, but as you say, his elusiveness is similar to Singletary's who is already with the Bills.  He doesn't give the Bills anything they don't have already.

No I hear you. I don't really see how he would add much to our backfield

[BigPappy]

On 5/4/2021 at 10:59 AM, Big Turk said:

 

Are they though? Because from where I am sitting they have a pretty bad hit rate overall for as much time and effort and knowledge advantages they have over all the posters...

 

No offense but if someone does something everyday for a living on a professional basis and has a huge financial backing and lots of other people involved to check and double check their work, I would expect something better than maybe a 10-15% improvement over what an average poster does who just watches a bunch of games and/or highlights in their spare time.

 

Sometimes I think they suffer from paralysis by analysis where they have too many points of information.

 

 

 Of course they are. The "average" poster looks at how many college players to "evaluate" them???? A dozen, maybe two dozen if they are die hard fans and I think that number is being VERY generous. Not to mention, the "average" poster (myself included) may have an idea on what to look at to evaluate a player, but they haven't got a clue on the actual evaluation process. For example, I know that a quarterback needs to have great footwork especially when dropping back to pass; but I, and most fans couldn't tell you if the QB's footwork is good or bad. Yes I can tell if the QB isn't setting his feet at the point of the throw or if he's throwing off the balls of his feet, but to ask me to tell someone that the actual footwork to get to that point was good or bad.... I'd be staring at you like Homer Simpson would after a lobotomy.    

 

 A professional scouting team looks at 3000 draft eligible players every year, and lets be honest; 90% of them are not elite players and I'd guess that of that 90%, 70% of them are bubble players, the other 30% good enough to have decent careers. That remaining 10% that are elite, are elite in TALENT and these scouts are experts at evaluating talent, not experts at guessing on how these young men will respond psychologically to the pressure of playing at the NFL level. 

 

 I do agree that sometime they suffer from paralysis by analysis. Especially when it comes to the elite of the elite; those top 10 picks type talent, or those once in a generation type talents. For us non professionals.... most of us (or them) are just guessing based on gut feeling and a few TV sports news highlight reels. The pro's, they evaluate some of these guys for days.... weeks or even months evaluating each of the players skills, and their off the field character.

[Spiderweb]

On 5/3/2021 at 8:26 PM, Old Coot said:

Charlie Tolar at 5'6" & 210 lbs was the Houston Oilers fullback in the old AFL.  His nickname: the Human Bowling Ball

Now there's a player from the past... 

[dave mcbride]

On 5/3/2021 at 8:26 PM, Old Coot said:

Charlie Tolar at 5'6" & 210 lbs was the Houston Oilers fullback in the old AFL.  His nickname: the Human Bowling Ball