Star L. possible cut?

[BarleyNY]

6 minutes ago, TPS said:

This issue has been bothering me since our discussion.  It's my understanding that making him a post-June cut would mean they are only on the hook this year for his guaranteed money and one year of the prorated bonus, pushing the remaining two years into next year's dead cap.  I checked out "over the cap", and they show his cap hit as I was figuring.  Designating him a June 1 cut, gives them $500K cap saving, with $7.1 mil dead cap this year and $5.2 mil next year:

https://overthecap.com/player/star-lotulelei/2282/

 

I assum this is the correct reading of it.  Again, I'm not 100%, but I thought that's how it worked.

That’s odd.  I’m going by Spotrac’s numbers, which look different.  OTC doesn’t really break out the numbers for cuts quite as neatly but I don’t think they are the same anyway. I am going to do the math from scratch and post that.  You can click the red X at the right under the 2021 financials to see what I’m seeing:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/star-lotulelei-12294/

[Fan in Chicago]

I havent read the entire thread and am not a capologist - How does the impact on our cap change if he is traded (assuming for a moment that we do find a willing trade partner)? Maybe throw in a 6th or 7th rounder along with him to sweeten the pot. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Hapless, of course you're right that nobody can legally require vaccinations.

 

But that doesn't mean that if a player decides not to get the vaccination the NFL should still be required to give them the ability to opt out. That's a very questionable thought.

 

I don't know what will happen with optouts. Duh. But if the vaccine is widely available well before the season, that will likely take a great deal of pressure off the NFL in terms of providing the option to opt out.

 

Just to be clear, vaccinations with licensed vaccines can be legally required by an employer in certain circumstances.  Vaccinations approved under EUA (emergency use authorization) cannot be required by an employer.  Therefore the NFL can not legally require players to be vaccinated since no current covid-19 vaccines are licensed, they are all approved under emergency use authorization. 

 

I don't know if it's a "questionable" thought or not, but it's "up to" the NFL and NFLPA what they will collectively bargain.  If the NFL pushes for no opt out option, and a player with a risk condition (vaccinated or not) gets seriously ill it would be very bad optics I would think, and the NFL seems to be an "optics" driven outfit.

 

Just my opinion.  Perhaps you are right and there will not be an opt-out.

[TheFunPolice]

What if Star is thinking of retiring, but the team asks him to opt out this year instead, making his cap hit almost nothing this season and absorbing the acceleration next season once the cap goes up?

 

If it's a deal between teams and players this time around, as opposed to a flat rate, then the Bills could say "take an extra 500,00 or 750,000 and wait a year to call it a career."

 

Everyone wins. His cap hit drops to almost nothing, and he gets to pocket some extra cash that he would not see if he retires now. 

Edited March 12, 2021 by TheFunPolice

[BarleyNY]

@TPS I’ll give this my best shot.  Good god, OTC and Spotrac don’t even have the same contract details which is making this even tougher.  So I worked them out individually. 
 

OTC: Guaranteed salary of $4.5M this season and $1.15M next.  SB proration of $2.6M for 2021-2023 each.  That means a post 6/1/21 cut would cause cap hits of $7.1M (4.5+2.6) in 2021 and $6.35M (1.15+2.6+2.6) in 2022.  Indeed that’s a $500k savings this season.  $13.45M in total dead money is pretty brutal though. 
 

Spotrac: Guaranteed salary of $4.5M (same) this season and $2.5M next (different).  SB proration of $2.6M for 2021-2023 each(same).  So the numbers will work out the same except that there would be $1.35M more dead money in 2022 ($7.7M) and total dead money would be $14.8M.

 

Spotrac’s calculations are off.  I see why but I won’t bore you with it.  Probably a spreadsheet mistake.  OTC doesn’t do a good job of showing dead money beyond 2021 either.  The future guaranteed salary is wonky too.  It’s hit usually accelerates to the present season with a release, but post 6/1 it would be in the following season I believe.  I think I worked this all through properly, but fire away any questions or if you spot a mistake. 

35 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

I havent read the entire thread and am not a capologist - How does the impact on our cap change if he is traded (assuming for a moment that we do find a willing trade partner)? Maybe throw in a 6th or 7th rounder along with him to sweeten the pot. 

Guaranteed salary would be the new team’s responsibility.  We’d have a $7.8M cap hit (dead money) if we traded him.  That’s $200k more than what it would be if he’s on the roster this season.  But that would close the book on him.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

52 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

I havent read the entire thread and am not a capologist - How does the impact on our cap change if he is traded (assuming for a moment that we do find a willing trade partner)? Maybe throw in a 6th or 7th rounder along with him to sweeten the pot. 

 

Trading Star, as far as I can tell, would be cap-neutral.  $7.8M cap hit if traded, $7.6M cap hit at present.

The trade partner would pick up $4.5M in salary and $0.5M in likely-to-be-achieved bonuses.

https://overthecap.com/player/star-lotulelei/2282/

 

19 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said:

What if Star is thinking of retiring, but the team asks him to opt out this year instead, making his cap hit almost nothing this season and absorbing the acceleration next season once the cap goes up?

 

If it's a deal between teams and players this time around, as opposed to a flat rate, then the Bills could say "take an extra 500,00 or 750,000 and wait a year to call it a career."

 

Everyone wins. His cap hit drops to almost nothing, and he gets to pocket some extra cash that he would not see if he retires now. 

 

As far as I know, if Star retires, his guaranteed salary becomes void and the Bills can ask him to repay $7.8M of roster bonuses.

Which is why most players under contract with guaranteed money and amortized signing bonuses won't retire (see Wood, Eric)

[TPS]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

@TPS I’ll give this my best shot.  Good god, OTC and Spotrac don’t even have the same contract details which is making this even tougher.  So I worked them out individually. 
 

OTC: Guaranteed salary of $4.5M this season and $1.15M next.  SB proration of $2.6M for 2021-2023 each.  That means a post 6/1/21 cut would cause cap hits of $7.1M (4.5+2.6) in 2021 and $6.35M (1.15+2.6+2.6) in 2022.  Indeed that’s a $500k savings this season.  $13.45M in total dead money is pretty brutal though. 
 

Spotrac: Guaranteed salary of $4.5M (same) this season and $2.5M next (different).  SB proration of $2.6M for 2021-2023 each(same).  So the numbers will work out the same except that there would be $1.35M more dead money in 2022 ($7.7M) and total dead money would be $14.8M.

 

Spotrac’s calculations are off.  I see why but I won’t bore you with it.  Probably a spreadsheet mistake.  OTC doesn’t do a good job of showing dead money beyond 2021 either.  The future guaranteed salary is wonky too.  It’s hit usually accelerates to the present season with a release, but post 6/1 it would be in the following season I believe.  I think I worked this all through properly, but fire away any questions or if you spot a mistake. 

Guaranteed salary would be the new team’s responsibility.  We’d have a $7.8M cap hit (dead money) if we traded him.  That’s $200k more than what it would be if he’s on the roster this season.  But that would close the book on him.

I think you have it right.  I think Spotrac did not properly account for the SB money--maybe taking 2020 off messed up their calculations?  My understanding is the two years left of his SB get pushed into the next fiscal year, which is what OTC did, but Spotrac did not--they kept 2 in this year and one in the following.

 

Now, I haven't stated why I think this is meaningful, and it's just a thought.   Beane wasted no time dumping EJ Gaines, the only other person on the Bills to opt out of 2020 beside Star.  This makes me take this rumor with a little more than a grain of salt....

 

While dumping Star is essentially cap neutral, it would still leave a hole to fill, though it could be why they also wanted to keep Butler?  I guess we'll find out soon enough.

 

Ps. Thanks for doing that.

Edited March 12, 2021 by TPS

[Fan in Chicago]

25 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

Guaranteed salary would be the new team’s responsibility.  We’d have a $7.8M cap hit (dead money) if we traded him.  That’s $200k more than what it would be if he’s on the roster this season.  But that would close the book on him.

Thanks. So it will be a one-time hit this year. But the cap hit is pretty large

10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Trading Star, as far as I can tell, would be cap-neutral.  $7.8M cap hit if traded, $7.6M cap hit at present.

The trade partner would pick up $4.5M in salary and $0.5M in likely-to-be-achieved bonuses.

https://overthecap.com/player/star-lotulelei/2282/

 

Thanks, Hopeful

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 minutes ago, TPS said:

I think you have it right.  I think Spotrac did not properly account for the SB money--maybe taking 2020 off messed up their calculations?  My understanding is the two years left of his SB get pushed into the next fiscal year, which is what OTC did, but Spotrac did not--they kept 2 in this year and one in the following.

 

Now, I haven't stated why I think this is meaningful, and it's just a thought.   Beane wasted no time dumping EJ Gaines, the only other person on the Bills to opt out of 2020 beside Star.  This makes me take this rumor with a little more than a grain of salt....

 

While dumping Star is essentially cap neutral, it would still leave a whole to fill, though it could be why they also wanted to keep Butler?  I guess we'll find out soon enough.

 

This is just my opinion, but if they're keeping Butler because they're worried about Star showing up at camp and on the field in good form, that's a mistake.

I felt Butler showed neither enthusiasm nor prowess at the 1TDT last season. 

 

As best as I could tell, last year the Bills adopted a system of "be nice and play 1TDT and we'll give you a 3TDT rotation" sort of like "eat your spinach and we'll give you a piece of chocolate cake".  It worked - kinda.

 

The Bills really signed Butler to be their Jordan Phillips replacement at 3TDT and it's probably still where he's best utilized.

 

[TPS]

23 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This is just my opinion, but if they're keeping Butler because they're worried about Star showing up at camp and on the field in good form, that's a mistake.

I felt Butler showed neither enthusiasm nor prowess at the 1TDT last season. 

 

As best as I could tell, last year the Bills adopted a system of "be nice and play 1TDT and we'll give you a 3TDT rotation" sort of like "eat your spinach and we'll give you a piece of chocolate cake".  It worked - kinda.

 

The Bills really signed Butler to be their Jordan Phillips replacement at 3TDT and it's probably still where he's best utilized.

 

Yes, and my thought is just a hunch based on the rumor that started this thread, so take it with slightly more than a grain, just slightly.... 

 

 

[ColoradoBills]

13 hours ago, Augie said:

 

I retired in my 50’s and I can see why many players say they will really miss the locker room and the guys. I guess it depends upon how much you like your work. I loved mine, but it wasn’t really transferable when we moved. 

 

For Star a lot will depend upon how he’s managed his body and conditioning during his year off. Did I read he dropped a bunch of weight? 

 

I loved mine too until the company got sold and the culture totally changed.  You definitely got to put the effort in to keep in touch with people!

 

As to Star, I can't find anything current about the weight loss thing.  It might have been on twitter.

I think anything could happen concerning his future.  I have no hard evidence but I do remember talk (rumors) 2 years ago or so about

him maybe losing his passion for football and wanting to get more involved with his church.  I want to stress that it was a rumor but

I remember making a mental note of it at the time.

 

When it's all said and done I think he plays one more year and I hope he kept himself in shape.

[TheFunPolice]

Star dropping a bunch of weight makes him useless to the defense, sadly. 

 

What he should have been doing this year is putting in the work in the dining room to be the biggest, best version of his 1DT self. 

 

Luckily, our future big DT (which is something Beane and McDermott obviously want in their defense) is named Slayton and he's in this draft coming up! There's a couple of giant DT's actually, that would make sense as mid-round picks to get a young giant guy in the system for cheap to play that role. 

Edited March 12, 2021 by TheFunPolice

[Hapless Bills Fan]

20 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said:

Star dropping a bunch of weight makes him useless to the defense, sadly.

 

It's been asked of others who have said this:

-what is the source of the rumor that Star has dropped weight and has it been verified?

 

I haven't received an answer yet.  Thanks.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said:

As to Star, I can't find anything current about the weight loss thing.  It might have been on twitter.

 

I can't find it on Twitter either, but their search engine isn't the greatest so....

 

Quote

I think anything could happen concerning his future.  I have no hard evidence but I do remember talk (rumors) 2 years ago or so about

him maybe losing his passion for football and wanting to get more involved with his church.  I want to stress that it was a rumor but

I remember making a mental note of it at the time.

 

I think I quoted it above, it frankly didn't sound as though football was his passion even in college.  I think that's true about more of these players than we know, which is why the big Demotivation sets in once they get paid.

 

Edit: here

 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

18 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It's been asked of others who have said this:

-what is the source of the rumor that Star has dropped weight and has it been verified?

 

I haven't received an answer yet.  Thanks.

 

I also couldn’t find anything, Star is on Twitter, maybe we should just ask him lol

[Doc]

10 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

I can see it as a possibility. Not a likelihood, though, far from it.

 

Go ahead and stick with Fromm if you like, but I think you're wrong there. The guy was the COVID backup. He missed out on large parts of what a rookie usually gets. In a Super Bowl-possible year, you don't want a guy like Fromm who's never thrown a single pass, and never even had a real off-season to be your QB if Allen gets injured. Expect Barkley or a replacement to be on the roster. At the edge of possibility I could imagine that replacement being Davis Webb. At least he's a guy who you know what you have.

 

I agree with you that they can get Feliciano for $3 - $4M cap hit this year if they do a little contract ju-jitsu. And I also agree that he would be worth that even in this difficult year.

 

But if you offer most of the others vet min, even the ones who would like to stay are likely to be gone. The difference between vet min and $1.5 or $2M isn't all that big for a team, but it's huge for these guys. You look at a guy like McKenzie. You speculate Roberts will be gone, which I think is a real possibility. If so, McKenzie's value immediately rises. Again, he had five TDs last year and a kick return TD besides. If we don't give him $2 or $3M, someone will. And he'll take that offer if we're offering vet min, and then we'll be stuck offering someone else a contract and discovering that for vet min you get a guy you hope not to see in the lineup except as a short-term injury replacement.

 

Same for guys like Marlowe. He'll never be a $4M guy, but he has real value as a backup who won't drop the level at which your defense will play. He'll very likely get more than vet min. A bit less than he might another year? Yeah, probably. But that's exactly why teams that have money this year are even luckier than teams that have money in a normal year. They can offer a guy like Marlowe or McKenzie a 20% or 30% cut and get a bargain in that teams that are having cap problems won't be able to match. Guys like Marlowe, Barkley, Boettger, Levi Wallace. They don't come back for vet min. In Joe B's season projection, he suggested tendering them as UFAs and understanding you might lose a few of them. Yeah, much more reasonable.

 

And I'd love to see them re-sign Williams. I'm with you there, but IMO that's where the tight cap hits and hurts. Not in forcing us to miss out on a guy like Marlowe or McKenzie or Barkley or Yeldon, if they want to keep him, or Bojorquez or Feliciano, who you can bring back without spending too too much extra. It's the guy with the big possibilities like Daryl Williams. So far in his career, Williams earned $2.8M in his first four years and last year's $6M. He's not going to be looking to give us a break here.

 

The general consensus has long been that we could sign Milano or Williams. I think that's right, though I'd love to get them both.

 

So they probably can't bring Williams back but they will have to replace him, and not with a vet min guy either. Even if they think it's likely they will go OT in the 1st round, Beane loves to fill his obvious holes in FA with mid-level guys so he isn't forced to reach in the draft if things don't fall the way he likes. So IMO they can't bring back Williams but will bring in a replacement for somewhere between, say $2.5 - $4M, maybe a bit less this year if they are willing to finagle the contract a bit to backload it.

 

Agree on pretty much everything but Fromm/Barkley.  That the Bills kept Fromm on the 53-man roster tells me they liked enough of what they saw to not risk cutting him to try and sneak him onto the PS.  He is a supposedly a quick study and will have had a year in the NFL and in the system anyway.  And while he didn't have the same experience most rookies do, he'll get that this year.  Again the tight cap make Barkley expendable, but he's unlikely to get offers so they should keep him on speed dial, while Webb will likely be on the PS.

 

[JohnNord]

On 3/11/2021 at 8:14 AM, yall said:

Good friend of mine with pretty accurate sources tells me he has reason to believe Star Lotulelei is gonna get cut. Based on what he shared with me, seems very possible.

 

From a cap perspective, does it make sense? I didn't get the feeling he was a likely candidate for release.

Your friends sources are wrong.  Star’s contract makes it very unlikely he gets cut.  Too much dead cap space.   

[Reed83HOF]

24 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think I quoted it above, it frankly didn't sound as though football was his passion even in college.  I think that's true about more of these players than we know, which is why the big Demotivation sets in once they get paid.

 And a year away from the game and the grind. If you have enough to live on, it makes it really hard to want to go back...

[BarleyNY]

3 hours ago, TPS said:

I think you have it right.  I think Spotrac did not properly account for the SB money--maybe taking 2020 off messed up their calculations?  My understanding is the two years left of his SB get pushed into the next fiscal year, which is what OTC did, but Spotrac did not--they kept 2 in this year and one in the following.

 

Now, I haven't stated why I think this is meaningful, and it's just a thought.   Beane wasted no time dumping EJ Gaines, the only other person on the Bills to opt out of 2020 beside Star.  This makes me take this rumor with a little more than a grain of salt....

 

While dumping Star is essentially cap neutral, it would still leave a whole to fill, though it could be why they also wanted to keep Butler?  I guess we'll find out soon enough.

 

Ps. Thanks for doing that.

Thanks right back at you.  Great catch. 

[TheFunPolice]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It's been asked of others who have said this:

-what is the source of the rumor that Star has dropped weight and has it been verified?

 

I haven't received an answer yet.  Thanks.

 

 

I have only heard that on this thread. I was mostly responding to the person who said it here. 

 

Hopefully it's not true. 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Guys, I’m going to stay on the positive side of things.

 

Star is going to come back a shredded 315 pounds of pure 3Tech nastiness 

[yall]

5 hours ago, JohnNord said:

Your friends sources are wrong.  Star’s contract makes it very unlikely he gets cut.  Too much dead cap space.   

Yeah I agree after seeing the informative responses on his cap hit a cut is super unlikely. 

 

But I think it's two scenarios at this point; retirement or just offloading his house and grabbing an apartment and sending the fam back home.

 

Edited March 12, 2021 by yall
Spelling

[ndirish1978]

If Star decides to retire I'd hope he'd at least agree to a contract restructure so we can spread that cap hit out over a few years to not screw us. It's doable. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

21 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

If Star decides to retire I'd hope he'd at least agree to a contract restructure so we can spread that cap hit out over a few years to not screw us. It's doable. 

If Star retires, I don’t think there are options for spreading the cap other than doing it post-June 1.  But again, if he retires, the Bills can request refund of his amortized signing bonus and his guaranteed salary.  
 

Sometimes teams say “here, have a present” like the Colts did with Luck.  Other times the player says up front he’ll return it.  In the middle, sometimes it gets messy.  

5 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Guys, I’m going to stay on the positive side of things.

 

Star is going to come back a shredded 315 pounds of pure 3Tech nastiness 

But we need a 1T

 

Is this like the joke about the guy who asks his doctor if he’ll be able to dance after his broken leg heals?  “Sure” “That’s great, I couldn’t before!”

 

Anyway hope you’re right on the shredded nastiness and the 315

[TPS]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

If Star retires, I don’t think there are options for spreading the cap other than doing it post-June 1.  But again, if he retires, the Bills can request refund of his amortized signing bonus and his guaranteed salary.  
 

Sometimes teams say “here, have a present” like the Colts did with Luck.  Other times the player says up front he’ll return it.  In the middle, sometimes it gets messy.  

Can't they do what Brees did?

[Thurman#1]

On 3/12/2021 at 9:38 PM, yall said:

Well I confirmed it then, albeit inadvertently...

 

 

Yeah, I think you're misunderstanding what people mean when they say they want confirmation.

 

Reminds me of the old Rodney Dangerfield joke: 

 

 

Guy goes into a doctor's office.

 

Doctor does some tests and says, "You've got cancer."

 

Guy says, "I want a second opinion."

 

Doctor says, "OK, you've got cancer and you're ugly."

 

 

 

When we say we want confirmation, we're looking for a second source. 

 

When some guy on the internet says something and we say we want confirmation, that doesn't mean that if the same guy says the same thing again we'll all say, "Oh, the anonymous guy from the internet said it again. Guess that puts any doubt to rest. When someone says something twice, well, it's always true.

 

 

Edited March 13, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

16 hours ago, Doc said:

 

Agree on pretty much everything but Fromm/Barkley.  That the Bills kept Fromm on the 53-man roster tells me they liked enough of what they saw to not risk cutting him to try and sneak him onto the PS.  He is a supposedly a quick study and will have had a year in the NFL and in the system anyway.  And while he didn't have the same experience most rookies do, he'll get that this year.  Again the tight cap make Barkley expendable, but he's unlikely to get offers so they should keep him on speed dial, while Webb will likely be on the PS.

 

 

It shouldn't tell you clearly they liked him that much. The Bills have kept three QBs active for three of the last four years. It appears to be the way they like to do business, even without COVID.

 

Another reason a team might keep the COVID replacement QB on the 53-man is so that he could be switched to active up to 30 minutes before a game if the other QBs tested positive just before a game.

 

And even assuming that they do "like him enough to not risk cutting him," that's how they've felt over the years for guys like Andre Smith and Reggie Gilliam, and you don't want those guys or rather QBs who are the equivalents of Andre Smith or Reggie Gilliam to be stepping in to take snaps when Josh Allen is injured for 3 - 5 weeks, you just don't. Fromm is a development guy.

 

And while he's had a year in the NFL, it hasn't been a normal year. He was separated from the other QBs and in fact the other players. He certainly might get a year in the system this year, but he might not. How will the offseason be this year? Will there be offseason get-togethers? Will there be COVID replacement QBs again? If there are

 

Expecting a 5th rounder who again has never thrown an NFL pass to be the backup after one season in which he couldn't do the things ordinary backups get to do in practice and meeting ... to expect that guy to step in immediately and play in case of injury is ridiculous. Not much more to say about this, but I'd put the chance on them cutting Barkley and then not replacing him with a vet as very low. And if they think they have the #2 on the roster, they likely think it's Webb, not Fromm.

 

 

 

[Doc]

I guess we’ll see. 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

19 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Guys, I’m going to stay on the positive side of things.

 

Star is going to come back a shredded 315 pounds of pure 3Tech nastiness 

we like him at 1tech

[Thurman#1]

22 hours ago, Doc said:

 

Agree on pretty much everything but Fromm/Barkley.  That the Bills kept Fromm on the 53-man roster tells me they liked enough of what they saw to not risk cutting him to try and sneak him onto the PS.  He is a supposedly a quick study and will have had a year in the NFL and in the system anyway.  And while he didn't have the same experience most rookies do, he'll get that this year.  Again the tight cap make Barkley expendable, but he's unlikely to get offers so they should keep him on speed dial, while Webb will likely be on the PS.

 

 

 

I thought I'd go back and look at their history, and I've changed my mind. I think they might do what you say, dump Barkley and just keep Fromm.

 

After all, they did virtually the exact same thing three years ago.

 

They drafted a 5th rounder in Fromm, they could then dump a guy with more experience. They were worried that somebody might snag the 5th rounder if they cut him, so they kept him off the practice squad in his 1st and 2nd years, and they then have that 5th rounder in his second year be Josh's first backup.

 

Heck, they already did it that way once, almost precisely the same thing. Why wouldn't they do it again?

 

They drafted a 5th rounder - Nate Peterman - and they were worried another team would grab him if they cut him so they didn't put him on the practice squad in that 5th rounder's 1st or 2nd years. They brought in a guy with more experience in McCarron but decided that with a 2nd year 5th round pick on the roster they didn't need a guy with more experience, so they traded him away and installed Peterman as Josh's backup.

 

Granted Peterman had a few passes thrown as a rookie and a full offseason, so he was significantly more experienced than Fromm.

 

Why would we expect them to do anything different this time?

 

 

Final thought:  Yes, we'll see.

 

 

 

Edited March 13, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Hapless Bills Fan]

14 hours ago, TPS said:

Can't they do what Brees did?

 

? Brees hasn't retired yet?  He converted salary to roster bonus and they extended his contract with "void years" which gave the Saints cap room to use now, but as far as I know if he retires, it all gets accelerated into this year unless he's designated post-June1 (in which case guaranteed salary and bonus for this year stay with this year, and the rest goes to next season).

[TheyCallMeAndy]

14 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

we like him at 1tech

Yeahhh I got it backwards, meant 1tech

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

It shouldn't tell you clearly they liked him that much. The Bills have kept three QBs active for three of the last four years. It appears to be the way they like to do business, even without COVID.

 

First off, I don't think you mean "active".  As far as I know, the Bills have never had more than 2 QB active on game days.  I think you may mean "on the roster".

 

Let's start with 2018 when the Bills drafted Josh Allen since that's the current relevance.

 

The Bills dealt themselves into an exceptional circumstance where they expected to let their raw, development-project 1st round rookie sit behind AJ McCarron, but McCarron couldn't get it done and got cut, leaving them scrambing to backfill that "vet QB" niche after Peterman predictably flamed out.  Which the Bills did by combining roles, Anderson for the veteran to demonstrate proper work ethic and preparation habits, and Barkley to actually play if needed once he mastered enough of the playbook.  It was kind of an exceptional circumstance.

 

2019, Barkley established as vet backup, 2 QB.

 

2020, again, exceptional circumstance of Covid, decided to keep an isolated QB and didn't want him poached.  Otherwise, pretty sure it woulda been 2 QB on the roster.

 

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Expecting a 5th rounder who again has never thrown an NFL pass to be the backup after one season in which he couldn't do the things ordinary backups get to do in practice and meeting ... to expect that guy to step in immediately and play in case of injury is ridiculous. Not much more to say about this, but I'd put the chance on them cutting Barkley and then not replacing him with a vet as very low. And if they think they have the #2 on the roster, they likely think it's Webb, not Fromm.

 

I tend to agree with you that at present, if they think they have a backup on the roster, it's Webb.  But that's only based on glimpses.

 

On the other hand....look around the league. 

Jags.  Gardiner Minshew.  6th round 2019 draft pick, comes in and plays respectably.

Panthers.  Taylor Heinicke undrafted in 2015, rattles around the league for 3 years, comes in in 2018, plays respectably except picks until injured and is replaced by...

                  Kyle Allen, undrafted 2018, who then replaced Heinicke and did OK, did even better in 2019 - team record 5-7 but 5 TD and 0 int in his 1st 4 starts.

                  (Heinicke did well in the playoffs in 2020 after being out of football)

Steelers    Duck Hodges, UDFA 2019, who replaced the Reindeer in 2019 - 3-3 record with him

49ers        Nick Mullins, UDFA 2017, got his chance in 2018 and team was 3-5 with him

 

Point being that there are a number of teams that have had to rely on late round, inexperienced QB their 1st or 2nd year in the league and have done OK, provided the defense was decent. 

 

Peterman is an...interesting case.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

36 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

I thought I'd go back and look at their history, and I've changed my mind. I think they might do what you say, dump Barkley and just keep Fromm.

 

After all, they did virtually the exact same thing three years ago.

 

They drafted a 5th rounder in Fromm, they could then dump a guy with more experience. They were worried that somebody might snag the 5th rounder if they cut him, so they kept him off the practice squad in his 1st and 2nd years, and they then have that 5th rounder in his second year be Josh's first backup.

 

Heck, they already did it that way once, almost precisely the same thing. Why wouldn't they do it again?

 

I think we all must admit that Peterman is an anomaly in the league, because he has somehow hypnotized not one, not two, but three NFL offensive coordinators (who have actually been OCs on winning teams) into believing that he has what it takes to be an NFL QB.  This has happened on not one, but two NFL teams and in fact he is still on an NFL roster as we type, and it persists despite his record-setting interception rate.

 

All I can say about that is That's Some *****. 

 

I think what Peterman has must be Catnip for Coaches in the film room and on the scout team.  He must be a Whiteboard Wizard who can ace the test "here's 1 second of defensive formation, what is the answer to "where do you go with the ball"? on the video screen. 

 

Either that, or Peterdude's got naughty pictures of first Sean McDermott and now Jon Gruden having a 3-way that involved an underaged Ovine.  Only thing I can think of; two pedicure models and a bottle of Wesson oil under black-lights would not be nearly enough.

 

36 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

They drafted a 5th rounder - Nate Peterman - and they were worried another team would grab him if they cut him so they didn't put him on the practice squad in that 5th rounder's 1st or 2nd years. They brought in a guy with more experience in McCarron but decided that with a 2nd year 5th round pick on the roster they didn't need a guy with more experience, so they traded him away and installed Peterman as Josh's backup.

 

Granted Peterman had a few passes thrown as a rookie and a full offseason, so he was significantly more experienced than Fromm.

 

Golly, with how well that turned out, why would we expect them to do anything different this time?

 

C'mon Man.  You don't see any differences between then and now? 

 

You don't see any difference between having a raw rookie who needs to learn how to prepare in the NFL, how to break down film, how to run an NFL practice, basically everything? -vs- now, where Josh Allen is the established starter on the Bills with a near-MVP like season and two playoff wins?

 

The one situation begs for an established starter and it was really negligent not to bring in a veteran the second McCarron got cut (something Beane has publicly acknowledged as a mistake).

 

The current situation could arguably be handled by a guy who can play QB well enough that we could break even or nearly break even for 6 games - as, you know, a bunch of other teams have.

 

It does require that the guy they keep actually be able to play QB on the level of Duck Hodges, Gardner Minshew, Kyle Allen, Taylor Heineke, or Nick Mullins, I grant you that.

[PrimeTime101]

On 3/11/2021 at 8:14 AM, yall said:

Good friend of mine with pretty accurate sources tells me he has reason to believe Star Lotulelei is gonna get cut. Based on what he shared with me, seems very possible.

 

From a cap perspective, does it make sense? I didn't get the feeling he was a likely candidate for release.

Back on topic. There is a great way to tell if someone has dropped a good amount of weight and that is looking at there face. This video was 8 months ago 

Interesting that during an interview he is wearing a hoodie that is way bigger then him with the hood over his head.

 

Then I look at this picture 

 

Again we are comparing side views with front view but that face is much more sucked in.

 

I have checked with a couple of my sources and they are not saying a WORD! which usually means something is up.

 

but in comparing. this is interesting look.

 

Me personally, I think the OP is spot on, I think he has lost weight and is not the same player.

 

Leads me to question... did he opt out cause he was not in the shape buffalo wanted him to be in or new they would want to be in?

Edited March 13, 2021 by PrimeTime101

[Victory Formation]

On 3/11/2021 at 1:57 PM, TheyCallMeAndy said:

I wouldn’t. They need a NT and moving him costs more money than playing him

Sometimes players are cut on principle and not because of financial logistics.

[TheyCallMeAndy]

1 minute ago, Victory Formation said:

Sometimes players are cut on principle and not because of financial logistics.

We don’t have the cap absorb dead money  because fans don’t like his stat line. 

[Victory Formation]

Just now, TheyCallMeAndy said:

We don’t have the cap absorb dead money  because fans don’t like his stat line. 

Fair enough. I just get the idea that there’s lots of friction between Star and this front office. Didn’t make sense financially for the Raiders to cut Brown neither. We’re going on almost 2 years now without Star playing football, I just get the sense that he’s lazy and not very driven. COVID sucks, but you can just as easily get it in a restaurant or a night out than you could on a football field.

[Rock'em Sock'em]

I believe his 4.5M base salary is fully guaranteed, so the only reason to cut him would be if he was not worth the 1M in roster and workout bonuses.  Basically they would have to believe that they are better off with a 3rd round pick in the rotation rather than Star.  If that was the case, he could be cut to save 1M and develop a younger player and then they would be forced to restructure someone to handle the dead cap.  Hopefully he is committed to playing and has a great year for us this year.

[Don Otreply]

This Star stuff is starting to have a conspiracy theory tinge to it... 😁👍