"Some in the league think Josh Allen has caught Patrick Mahomes", per PFT

[Billl]

21 hours ago, Success said:

There is no question that their biggest names won't all be together for long. 

Mahomes, Jones, and Kelce are all locked up long term.  Hill has 2 more seasons on his deal, but he’s not going anywhere.  Who’s leaving?

[NewEra]

4 hours ago, Success said:

 

The only "big" gap I see there is at pass rusher. We're fairly anemic there - clearly, that has to be our top priority in the offseason, and the D-line in general.

 

The differences at QB and pass catcher are negligible, imo.  I'll grant a slight edge to what KC has, but it's not any kind of overall difference-maker.   Mahomes was better than Allen in the AFCCG because of the gap at pass rush - Allen had pressure all game, Mahomes didn't.  I think the QB's themselves are very close, and still wouldn't trade Allen for Mahomes straight-up.

 

Give me Diggs over Hill.  Hill has the speed, but Diggs can do more, and was more consistently good throughout the '20 season.  Hard to argue w/ Kelce - but Beasley is as good a possession receiver as there is in the game.  Again, a slight edge, but not what I would consider a gap.

 

We're right there. And I trust Beane more than just about anyone. He'll make the moves we need to make to catch up - it's not anything insurmountable in one offseason.

 

I agree that the only BIG gap is pass rush....but it’s a huge gap and landing two elite pass rushers at their position is easier said that done.  Chris Jones isn’t going to fall out of the sky. 
 

Pass catcher wise, it’s a medium sized gap due to the Kelce factor.  
 

coaching wise, we’re really good.  They’re better much better.  Spags doesn’t get enough credit, much like Reid didn’t for decades. 
 

After watching the afccg, I’d argue that their secondary is MUCH better than ours two. Maybe that was the coaching?  Idk, but they were blanketing our WRs all game while KCs pass catchers didn’t have a defender a yard from them on all but 2 catches iirc

1 minute ago, Billl said:

Mahomes, Jones, and Kelce are all locked up long term.  Hill has 2 more seasons on his deal, but he’s not going anywhere.  Who’s leaving?

I agree, they aren’t going anywhere.  They’ll just restructure contracts 
 

Weren’t you a bills fan a year ago?  

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Success said:

All true, but I was focused more on the player-to-player comparison.  I just don't see it.  No doubt Hill is a playmaker and dangerous, but he doesn't have the kind of broad skillset & versatility that Diggs has.  

 

It's a minor point in the scheme of the KC vs. Buffalo discussion.  Diggs only gives us a slight edge at that one position. The BIG gap is clearly w/ Kelce and the TE position. I think the rest (on offense) is fairly negligible.  When healthy, what we had this past season in Diggs, Brown, Beasley, Davis & even McKenzie stacks up well against KC's WR corps and the rest of the league.  I don't see it as a glaring difference.

 

It was a difference in the AFCCG because of Brown's knee, Davis' ankle, Diggs' oblique and Beasley's broken leg.  We can say they looked light years apart in the actual game, but injuries were a big part of that.  Our WR's were uncharacteristically not getting open.  Combine that with Allen running for his life all night, while Mahomes could have had a light snack in the pocket most of the night, and it created optics that made the gap look bigger than it is.  

 

But that is the point.

 

You look at Buffalo top 3 offensive weapons compared to KC’s. Theres a huge gap. You look at pass rusher. There’s a huge gap.

 

So how are we close? We just need a star pass rusher and a star receiver?  

[BuffaLoko]

On 1/24/2021 at 9:30 PM, ScottLaw said:

I agree. Dude is great. I love him as a QB. He’s no Mahomes. It’s not even close. Mahomes is on another level. Guy is calm, cool, collected. Allen looked tight and nervous for the first quarter and a half. Chiefs went down 9 and Mahomes didn’t flinch.

 

Hopefully he learns to get there with experience. 

This thread should be renamed to¨¨oranges versus apples...¨ or at least, green apples to California golden apples, in this instance you (for example) forget to mention Mahomes has been already to THREE AFCCh, and Allen once, each by their own merits, however the ¨calm factor ¨will come to Allen with his exposure to the stage...

[Billl]

15 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I agree that the only BIG gap is pass rush....but it’s a huge gap and landing two elite pass rushers at their position is easier said that done.  Chris Jones isn’t going to fall out of the sky. 
 

Pass catcher wise, it’s a medium sized gap due to the Kelce factor.  
 

coaching wise, we’re really good.  They’re better much better.  Spags doesn’t get enough credit, much like Reid didn’t for decades. 
 

After watching the afccg, I’d argue that their secondary is MUCH better than ours two. Maybe that was the coaching?  Idk, but they were blanketing our WRs all game while KCs pass catchers didn’t have a defender a yard from them on all but 2 catches iirc

I agree, they aren’t going anywhere.  They’ll just restructure contracts 
 

Weren’t you a bills fan a year ago?  

I was a heavy bettor on the Bills last year.  Now I want them to win as many games as possible as long as it doesn’t come at the expense of the Chiefs.  I like the team, and you fans deserve a title.

[Success]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

But that is the point.

 

You look at Buffalo top 3 offensive weapons compared to KC’s. Theres a huge gap. You look at pass rusher. There’s a huge gap.

 

So how are we close? We just need a star pass rusher and a star receiver?  

 

Huge?

 

Yes on pass rush.  Absolutely not on offensive weapons.

 

Kelce is the only "differentiator" at a position. Clearly, he's far and away better than any TE we have - or anyone in the league.

 

Receivers?  No.

 

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, Success said:

 

Huge?

 

Yes on pass rush.  Absolutely not on offensive weapons.

 

Kelce is the only "differentiator" at a position. Clearly, he's far and away better than any TE we have - or anyone in the league.

 

Receivers?  No.

 

I’m obviously including Kelce in the pass catching category. Because he’s their number 1 pass catcher.

 

You’re trying to split hairs.

Edited February 6, 2021 by FireChans

[Success]

Just now, FireChans said:

I’m obviously including Kelce in the pass catching category. Because he’s their number 1 pass catcher.

 

Understood. Like I said - no argument there.  

 

Not sure what we do to address it, either.  I'd still like to see Knox develop. He has some superior playmaking ability. Obviously, it's the drops & blocking that are the issue.  And of course he'll never be at Kelce's level, but that's a fool's errand to seek that.  He just needs to be capable in the Bills offense.

 

Looking back on the conversation, the overall point I think I'm going for is that we're there w/ the Chiefs on offense.  We were the 3rd highest scoring offense in the league. I'm good w/ that.  The way to a championship isn't to try to get more video-gamey.  The way to a championship is more balance.  We were one-dimensional all season, and it was ultimately our undoing in the AFCCG.

 

[BuffaLoko]

3 hours ago, Rock-A-Bye Beasley said:

once tyrod is pulled for Mahomes?
 

Yes I think we beat the jags in the playoffs in 2017

man! that was lightning fast thinking! hahahaha

[78thealltimegreat]

5 hours ago, NJKBillsfan said:

Ridiculous to even compare them. 

 

Mahomes is much better than Allen and it's not even close. 

 

Mahomes also has an offensive genius for coach, a generational tight end, and set of backs that clocks what the Bills have...for Josh to get where he did with no Tight End, no running game, and an average defense is amazing 

[BaaadThingsMan]

As a fan I like hearing this about the QB of my team however I hated the timing of this story. This feels more like an off season story to me. 

[machine gun kelly]

I’m the first one to compliment Allen for his progression to one of the better QB’s in the league, and will be our franchise guy probably for another decade or longer, but Mahomes.  I was listening to Howard and Jeremy this morning and Jeremy pulled about some advanced stats from pro football reference combing net positive yards minus sacks, etc..  You data guys know more than I on that point.

 

Anyway, in Mahomes first three years as the starting QB of any QB in the history of the NFL, has a rating so high.  Of overall QB’s at any point in their careers over three years, he ranked 7th.  You guys know many of the other guys, P. Manning, Marino, Fouts, and so on.  Montana was 10th.

 

Another data point just indicating Mahomes is performing now better than any young QB in the history of the NFL.  Again, I love Allen and wouldn’t trade him for just about anyone, and Mahomes is not going anywhere.  He’s locked up in KC for the next decade.  It’s just that a lot of people are getting wrapped up in the Allen hype, and the reality is he is now an excellent QB, amd will just keep getting better, but why compare him to the guy returning to the SB.

[HamSandwhich]

3 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

I’m the first one to compliment Allen for his progression to one of the better QB’s in the league, and will be our franchise guy probably for another decade or longer, but Mahomes.  I was listening to Howard and Jeremy this morning and Jeremy pulled about some advanced stats from pro football reference combing net positive yards minus sacks, etc..  You data guys know more than I on that point.

 

Anyway, in Mahomes first three years as the starting QB of any QB in the history of the NFL, has a rating so high.  Of overall QB’s at any point in their careers over three years, he ranked 7th.  You guys know many of the other guys, P. Manning, Marino, Fouts, and so on.  Montana was 10th.

 

Another data point just indicating Mahomes is performing now better than any young QB in the history of the NFL.  Again, I love Allen and wouldn’t trade him for just about anyone, and Mahomes is not going anywhere.  He’s locked up in KC for the next decade.  It’s just that a lot of people are getting wrapped up in the Allen hype, and the reality is he is now an excellent QB, amd will just keep getting better, but why compare him to the guy returning to the SB.

What is that second paragraph saying? What is “he has a rating so high”? That is very subjective. Is that what you’re saying he’s ranked 7th in later in the post?  In what? Not getting sacked? That is just a confusing paragraph. 

Edited February 6, 2021 by HamSandwhich

[machine gun kelly]

Ham, I didn’t write the numbers down from Jeremy buts an advanced metric from pro football reference.  If you have the radio.com app, pull up the on demand sometime between 6:30-7:30 am.  I wasn’t paying close attention, and if you go to PFR, you should be able to find it.  They had the best guys top 10 within a three year period.  I’d listen this morning as I believe audio on demand is only good for 24 hrs.

 

I hope that helps.  If memory serves, that number on Mahomes was like 127.9 or something.  You’ll probably enjoy the discussion.  It was one of their trivia segments, and the guys were trying to guess who were the other 6, but they did rate Montana as 10th.  Sorry I couldn’t be more helpful.

Edited February 6, 2021 by machine gun kelly

[machine gun kelly]

Hammy, just for you I’ll look on PFR and see if I can find it.

[without a drought]

Maybe we'll revisit this next year and see if it still holds water. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

23 hours ago, NewEra said:

I guess I really don’t understand your point. Are you trying to say that Josh Allen would’ve been as good as Mahomes was in  his first 2 years if he had Hill and Kelce?  

 

 

Not at all. Allen's trajectory has always been a year or two behind the other top QB's. This has been pretty much true since his days in Firebaugh. Take Allen's MVP level breakout season for instance in year three. Going back to Wentz, the trend has been players breaking out in year 2. Wentz, Mahomes, Jackson.  Even lesser QB's like Goff, Turbitzky and Murray probably had bigger year two breakouts then Allen's year two breakout. Allen broke out in year 3. A good part of that definitely had to do with the acquisition of Diggs. 

 

At the same time we shouldn't give all the credit to Diggs, Brown and Beasley for Allen's improvement from his rookie year with Curly, Moe and Larry. Diggs, Brown and Beasley all had career years with Allen. Definitely a mutual relationship.

 

My point is this if I can sum it up:

 

The talent gap is narrowed enough between the two that at this point, it is the rosters that puts one QB over the other in terms of team success. Such is life. Peyton was the better QB over Brady for probably their first 5-6 years of their careers but Peyton never sniffed a super bowl in that time span. I don't know that Josh would have been anywhere close to Mahomes 2018 numbers had he started with KC's roster. Allen still needed more time to develop. But definitely his numbers would be a lot better than his first two years with the Bills. But by year three for Allen the gap between the two has certainly narrowed enough where factors outside the QB play a more prominent role in team success.  In terms of pure statistical success for the QB's, 2020 alone, it's essentially a wash. Their regular season stats were virtually identical by both QBR and passer rating efficiency metrics, about a point in favor of Mahomes for each. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 2/5/2021 at 8:10 AM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

No question Beane dropped the ball when he passed on playmakers AJ Brown and DK Metcalf in round 2 of 2019.     They NEEDED that player for Josh Allen in 2019..........not another developmental offensive guard with right tackle flexibility in Cody Ford.    That error cost them two All Pro type talents.......Wyatt Teller's roster spot and one of those WR's.

 

 

Hopefully this is the year we find that playmaker in the draft. I think that is the only place we will find him. Doubtful in free agency. The one guy in free agency i would look at maybe his Curtis Samuel. 

 

To be fair to Beane, the Bills 2020 roster was still really good. Most years in the past it's probably good enough to get you to the Super Bowl. Or at least not blown out in the conference title game. Teams don't typically have two talents like Hill and Kelce to go along with already strong rosters. It'd be like the Patriots when they had Moss and Welker trading in Welker for a prime Gronk to pair with Moss.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

22 hours ago, FireChans said:

Talent-wise and blue chip-wise, I simply do not agree.

 

 

We need to hope that Kelce starts to age quickly. Most TE's are able to play deep into their 30's but there is a production decline that starts around the age of 33 from looking at the stats of guys like Witten and Tony G. Gronk's decline started much earlier but he was always banged up. Kelce, 31, likely has at least two more all-pro years in him. Hopefully no more after that though. 

20 hours ago, Success said:

 

If all other things are equal (contracts & dollars), who do you take:  Diggs, or Hill?

 

 

 

 

 

I agree that Diggs and Hill are probably a wash or very close to it. 

 

But Kelce >>>Beasley. 

 

Kelce is the difference. He's nearly unstoppable. He may have lead the league in receiving this year if he played in the final game.

[NewEra]

20 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Not at all. Allen's trajectory has always been a year or two behind the other top QB's. This has been pretty much true since his days in Firebaugh. Take Allen's MVP level breakout season for instance in year three. Going back to Wentz, the trend has been players breaking out in year 2. Wentz, Mahomes, Jackson.  Even lesser QB's like Goff, Turbitzky and Murray probably had bigger year two breakouts then Allen's year two breakout. Allen broke out in year 3. A good part of that definitely had to do with the acquisition of Diggs. 

 

At the same time we shouldn't give all the credit to Diggs, Brown and Beasley for Allen's improvement from his rookie year with Curly, Moe and Larry. Diggs, Brown and Beasley all had career years with Allen. Definitely a mutual relationship.

 

My point is this if I can sum it up:

 

The talent gap is narrowed enough between the two that at this point, it is the rosters that puts one QB over the other in terms of team success. Such is life. Peyton was the better QB over Brady for probably their first 5-6 years of their careers but Peyton never sniffed a super bowl in that time span. I don't know that Josh would have been anywhere close to Mahomes 2018 numbers had he started with KC's roster. Allen still needed more time to develop. But definitely his numbers would be a lot better than his first two years with the Bills. But by year three for Allen the gap between the two has certainly narrowed enough where factors outside the QB play a more prominent role in team success.  In terms of pure statistical success for the QB's, 2020 alone, it's essentially a wash. Their regular season stats were virtually identical by both QBR and passer rating efficiency metrics, about a point in favor of Mahomes for each. 

I hear what your saying and I agree for the most part, but the bolded is just not correct.  You’re taking into account total stats at the end of the season.  Go game by game (and Mahomes had 1 less game).   Allen lost 3 regular season games this year. In each loss, he had a QBR under 80.  He played bad and we lost.  Mahomes had 2 games under 90 all year (79, 83) and lost one.  Including playoffs, Allen had 9 games over 90 qbr.  Mahomes had 15.  Mahomes was far more consistent than Allen was over the course of the year.

 

Total stats at the end of the season don’t tell the whole story.  Mahomes has a much greater tendency to make the right read on a game to game basis.  Josh was making the wrong read vs the chiefs in both games more often than not.  He refused to take what was given to him and that’s where he often runs into his problems 

 

The consistency in making the right reads, imo, is what sets them a tier a part.  They don’t belong in the same conversation (regardless of season stats).  Yet

 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 minute ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Hopefully this is the year we find that playmaker in the draft. I think that is the only place we will find him. Doubtful in free agency. The one guy in free agency i would look at maybe his Curtis Samuel. 

 

To be fair to Beane, the Bills 2020 roster was still really good. Most years in the past it's probably good enough to get you to the Super Bowl. Or at least not blown out in the conference title game. Teams don't typically have two talents like Hill and Kelce to go along with already strong rosters. It'd be like the Patriots when they had Moss and Welker trading in Welker for a prime Gronk to pair with Moss.

 

 

I don't think the Bills had a SB roster.    Neither does Beane,  as he said in the aftermath of the AFCCG.   Josh Allen really carried them.

 

They'd probably have had a losing team this season if they had just a solid QB like Philip Rivers.    Simply not enough playmakers on either side of the ball.

 

Beane and McDermott dug themselves a roster hole in choosing to let all of the drought era 1st and 2nd round players go.   They made a ton of bad decisions in McD's first 14 months on the job......things like passing on Mahomes/Watson and paying Star Lotulelei $50M etc..  But then they hit a grand slam with Josh Allen and have generally made better decisions since.   They've learned on the job,  which is frustrating,  but encouraging.

 

 BUT......as the media noted in the lead up to the AFCCG the Bills had the fewest home-grown players on roster of the final 4 teams........flying in the face of the narrative that the Bills were the young upstart on the block.   They are actually one of the oldest rosters in the league........which means that they are likely to experience even more turnover than most teams over the next 2-3 seasons so they will now really need to draft and develop better.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

18 hours ago, Billl said:

I was a heavy bettor on the Bills last year.  Now I want them to win as many games as possible as long as it doesn’t come at the expense of the Chiefs.  I like the team, and you fans deserve a title.

 

LOL. What? You're a Chiefs fan! I always assumed your avatar was just maybe a player you really liked or an image you liked. For some reason never made the connection. I mean you don't seem to post as much about the Chiefs as Zerovoltz unless I haven't been paying attention enough.

 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

5 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I hear what your saying and I agree for the most part, but the bolded is just not correct.  You’re taking into account total stats at the end of the season.  Go game by game (and Mahomes had 1 less game).   

 

Not going by total stats. Going by two efficiency metrics. QBR and passer rating. Totals do not matter.

 

But if we want to dive into totals...

 

Allen only played a half against Miami in week 16 and had three TD's in that half. He played about half the fourth quarter against both New England and Denver. I believe Mahomes lead the NFL in interceptable passes thrown this year? Would have to double check that but thought I read that stat somewhere.  And I don't know what the number is between Mahomes vs Allen but I would be absolutely shocked if Mahomes had more dropped/called back TD's then Allen did this year. 

 

And then of course there are the 9 rushing/receiving TD's from Allen this year.

[NewEra]

23 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Not going by total stats. Going by two efficiency metrics. QBR and passer rating. Totals do not matter.

 

But if we want to dive into totals...

 

Allen only played a half against Miami in week 16 and had three TD's in that half. He played about half the fourth quarter against both New England and Denver. I believe Mahomes lead the NFL in interceptable passes thrown this year? Would have to double check that but thought I read that stat somewhere.  And I don't know what the number is between Mahomes vs Allen but I would be absolutely shocked if Mahomes had more dropped/called back TD's then Allen did this year. 

 

And then of course there are the 9 rushing/receiving TD's from Allen this year.

And then of course you can state whatever stats you like, no one on earth in their right mind would compare the two.  Mahomes is in another tier.  He’s been consistently the best player in the league for his entire career.  Josh has flashes of dominance....then did next to nothing vs the ravens in the divisional round and was bailed out by a pick 6 and didn’t lead a TD drive vs the chiefs and their middle of the road defense until the 4th quarter.  
 

Mahomes has risen to the occasion in every big game.  Literally, every big game.  Josh has had a handful of big games.....and has failed more than he’s succeeded in them.  
 

Josh is my guy.  I wouldn’t trade him for Mahomes because he’s my guy.  Sadly, he is no where near as good as Mahomes due to the fact that he’s not as calm and cool under pressure in the playoffs as Mahomes is.  The regular season is the regular season.  Josh has played in 4 playoff games (2-2) and has played like a star in 1 of them (the colts), 87 qbr, 5 TDs 1 pick in 4 games.  Mahomes is 6-1, 110 QBR 17 TDs 2 int including a HUGE comeback to win a super bowl.  
 

Unfortunately, it’s Mahomes by a billion.  So far

[transplantbillsfan]

On 1/24/2021 at 5:56 PM, ScottLaw said:

Don’t disagree. I thought he looked pretty rattled to start the game and had one drive that was really bad. Threw an easy INT that was dropped and missed Diggs at the sticks in 3rd down. The constant back peddling was incredibly infuriating though. 

 

This is just what Allen is.  Allen had to be Superman against the Chiefs because of a combination of a great defensive game plan by the Chiefs, a banged up WR corps on the Bills, porous OL play, and poor defensive play.

 

That game against the Chiefs proved the Chiefs were by far the better team than the Bills on that day, but I don't think it proved anything necessarily in the Allen and Mahomes argument.  

 

But for lack of a better argument:

 

Athleticism

Allen  >>> Mahomes

This won't ever change, barring injury.  And although Mahomes is definitely athletic and elusive, I don't really think this one is arguable.

 

Arm Strength

Allen === Mahomes

Obviously debatable, but the difference is negligible in either direction.  This also won't ever change, barring injury

 

Leadership

Allen === Mahomes

Speculative and I would generally give the edge to Allen just based on what I've seen (hugging every single offensive player after the loss to the Chiefs), but I honestly don't watch enough of Mahomes or the Chiefs to know what he does and doesn't do... maybe our resident KC fan @Zerovoltz can give us those specific insights.

 

Competitive Drive

Allen >>> Mahomes

All these are speculative, but just watch Allen play. All those 20-30 yard sacks fall under this category.  So do plays like the one he got injured against the Raiders, had to go out of the game briefly and came back in to keep playing through his injury.  And yes, Mahomes has played through injury, too.  But I don't think we've seen Mahomes face anywhere near the adversity Allen has faced in his first 3 years.  Yet, Allen is now thriving through that adversity.  This category and the next category I think kinda go hand in hand...

 

Work Ethic 

Allen >>> Mahomes

I don't think this is arguable, but obviously feel free to do so.  Allen has drastically improved in every single offseason.  You can just see it in his face and hear it in his voice every time he's interviewed.  You read about it in his work in the offseasons with Jordan Palmer and then hear it in interviews by Palmer himself.  You hear about it with pleas to Tony Romo last year during the Super Bowl on how to get better.  You hear it from Daboll after Allen makes stupid mistakes and Daboll talking about how Allen won't make the same mistake again because he learns from them.  Again.  For me this is the adversity Allen has faced and the consistent improvement every year.  Mahomes landed in almost the perfect situation with the perfect coach and a team with continuity of talent that had made the playoffs with 10+ wins the 3 years before he became the starter.  I just think Allen has that Jordan quality where he hates losing exponentially more than he loves winning and he uses it to drive him.

 

Accuracy

Allen <<< Mahomes

I actually think the argument to be made is that Allen is now more accurate than Mahomes, but I'm giving Mahomes the edge here, despite the fact that Allen's completion percentage was higher than Mahomes.  I don't know why I'm giving Mahomes the edge (been doing it for longer? better deep ball thrower?), but at least at this moment I think it's possible that Mahomes is more accurate than Allen.  Then again, this might be me trying a little too hard to be objective here because I actually think Allen has made many more of those "wow!!!" throws on the bread and butter intermediate 10-30 yard passes than Mahomes has made this year.

 

 

I think those are all the individual categories you can cover with a QB.  What we have left are the external components like coaching and surrounding talent.  And Mahomes has the edge for those.  Despite our great WR corps, KC's top 3 receiving threats of Kelce, Hill and Hardman >>>> Diggs, Brown/Davis, Beasley.  And Reid/Bienamy/Spagnolo >>> (at least right now) McDermott/Daboll/Frazier. 

 

And then throw in the actual threat of a running attack from RBs on the Chiefs that Buffalo doesn't have.

 

 

So... has Allen "caught up" with Mahomes?  I actually think he's about there.  But again maybe overcompensating I'll say he isn't quite there, yet.

 

But the thing is, Allen is still improving.  Can we say that about Mahomes?

Edited February 6, 2021 by transplantbillsfan

[PrimeTime101]

20 hours ago, Rock-A-Bye Beasley said:

once tyrod is pulled for Mahomes?
 

Yes I think we beat the jags in the playoffs in 2017

huh? oooooooook...

20 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Agreed Diggs is better overall receiver then Hill but Pat also has a far superior set of backs in Williams and CEH than the Bills have in Moss or Singletary 

Don’t forget Patrick also has one of the real offensive geniuses to ever coach the game as his head coach from the get go...Josh has Deboll who prior to having Josh really didn’t do much as a coordinator outside of Bama which you or I could coordinate to 10 wins 

Better yet put Josh with the Dallas Cowboys and not only their receivers but having Elliot and Pollard behind him and the Cowboys are in the Super Bowl 

Dallas was lighting it up and Prescot was in the talks of MVP before that Injury. I would agree 100%

Edited February 6, 2021 by PrimeTime101

[transplantbillsfan]

12 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

I’m the first one to compliment Allen for his progression to one of the better QB’s in the league, and will be our franchise guy probably for another decade or longer, but Mahomes.  I was listening to Howard and Jeremy this morning and Jeremy pulled about some advanced stats from pro football reference combing net positive yards minus sacks, etc..  You data guys know more than I on that point.

 

Anyway, in Mahomes first three years as the starting QB of any QB in the history of the NFL, has a rating so high.  Of overall QB’s at any point in their careers over three years, he ranked 7th.  You guys know many of the other guys, P. Manning, Marino, Fouts, and so on.  Montana was 10th.

 

Another data point just indicating Mahomes is performing now better than any young QB in the history of the NFL.  Again, I love Allen and wouldn’t trade him for just about anyone, and Mahomes is not going anywhere.  He’s locked up in KC for the next decade.  It’s just that a lot of people are getting wrapped up in the Allen hype, and the reality is he is now an excellent QB, amd will just keep getting better, but why compare him to the guy returning to the SB.

 

And here's the conundrum.

 

I agree Mahomes is performing better.  But let's say we swapped Allen and Mahomes and pretend Mahomes is drafted by the Bills in 2017 and Allen is drafted by the Chiefs in 2018.

 

Who is better right now as we end the 2020 season? 

 

They're so damn close at this point that KC's talent and coaching just makes Mahomes "obviously better" right now.

[PrimeTime101]

22 hours ago, Success said:

 

If all other things are equal (contracts & dollars), who do you take:  Diggs, or Hill?

 

That one isn't really close for me. I get that opinions can vary, but no way do I trade Diggs for Hill.  Hill was held to 5 or fewer catches in 9 games this past season. Diggs had one game under 6 catches.  

 

They have a pass rush & we don't.  That's fixable in an offseason, especially if that is the main priority need.  

 

I agree they're better right now. I just don't see it as significant.

 

 

your talking one player.. Their O'Line.. way wetter.. Their D'Line Way Way better. Their TE.. best in the game..   this shouldn't even be a debate.. Take Josh Digs, Mahomes Hill out of the equasion... KC is way better.. its not close.  Our strength is our secondary and a solid group of WR's  their strength is the lines.. that makes them.. yep.. way better. cause the trenches are where games are won and lost.

[NewEra]

10 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

your talking one player.. Their O'Line.. way wetter.. Their D'Line Way Way better. Their TE.. best in the game..   this shouldn't even be a debate.. Take Josh Digs, Mahomes Hill out of the equasion... KC is way better.. its not close.  Our strength is our secondary and a solid group of WR's  their strength is the lines.. that makes them.. yep.. way better. cause the trenches are where games are won and lost.

Their OL is way better.....how is that even possible though?  They were starting 3 backups vs us and starting 4 backups tomorrow in the super bowl. They’ll be playing without Fisher, Osemele, Duvernay-Tardif and Schwartz tomorrow playing against what is possibly the best front 7 in the league.  
 

I’m not saying that they aren’t better....I just don’t understand how a bunch of backup nobody’s can be better than our 15M LT, 10M C, Former all pro RT.  
 

much of this has to do with coaching, scheme and Mahomes’ QB play.  I don’t think their actual players along the OL are better than ours.  

[NewEra]

20 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

And here's the conundrum.

 

I agree Mahomes is performing better.  But let's say we swapped Allen and Mahomes and pretend Mahomes is drafted by the Bills in 2017 and Allen is drafted by the Chiefs in 2018.

 

Who is better right now as we end the 2020 season? 

 

They're so damn close at this point that KC's talent and coaching just makes Mahomes "obviously better" right now.

Let’s say that pretending to swap qbs is make believe and we can’t actually predict anything about it.  No matter what we were to predict about them is nonsense.  The only thing we can actually debate about is what they’ve done.  Mahomes has always been calm and cool under the pressure since day 1   Josh was the exact opposite of that day 1.  He’s shown a lot

of improvement in every facet of his game over 3 years, including being calm and cool, but he still has a ways to go.  Especially in quickly reading where to go with the ball when under pressure in the playoffs 

[PrimeTime101]

14 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

This is just what Allen is.  Allen had to be Superman against the Chiefs because of a combination of a great defensive game plan by the Chiefs, a banged up WR corps on the Bills, porous OL play, and poor defensive play.

 

That game against the Chiefs proved the Chiefs were by far the better team than the Bills on that day, but I don't think it proved anything necessarily in the Allen and Mahomes argument.  

 

But for lack of a better argument:

 

Athleticism

Allen  >>> Mahomes

This won't ever change, barring injury.  And although Mahomes is definitely athletic and elusive, I don't really think this one is arguable.

 

Arm Strength

Allen === Mahomes

Obviously debatable, but the difference is negligible in either direction.  This also won't ever change, barring injury

 

Leadership

Allen === Mahomes

Speculative and I would generally give the edge to Allen just based on what I've seen (hugging every single offensive player after the loss to the Chiefs), but I honestly don't watch enough of Mahomes or the Chiefs to know what he does and doesn't do... maybe our resident KC fan @Zerovoltz can give us those specific insights.

 

Competitive Drive

Allen >>> Mahomes

All these are speculative, but just watch Allen play. All those 20-30 yard sacks fall under this category.  So do plays like the one he got injured against the Raiders, had to go out of the game briefly and came back in to keep playing through his injury.  And yes, Mahomes has played through injury, too.  But I don't think we've seen Mahomes face anywhere near the adversity Allen has faced in his first 3 years.  Yet, Allen is now thriving through that adversity.  This category and the next category I think kinda go hand in hand...

 

Work Ethic 

Allen >>> Mahomes

I don't think this is arguable, but obviously feel free to do so.  Allen has drastically improved in every single offseason.  You can just see it in his face and hear it in his voice every time he's interviewed.  You read about it in his work in the offseasons with Jordan Palmer and then hear it in interviews by Palmer himself.  You hear about it with pleas to Tony Romo last year during the Super Bowl on how to get better.  You hear it from Daboll after Allen makes stupid mistakes and Daboll talking about how Allen won't make the same mistake again because he learns from them.  Again.  For me this is the adversity Allen has faced and the consistent improvement every year.  Mahomes landed in almost the perfect situation with the perfect coach and a team with continuity of talent that had made the playoffs with 10+ wins the 3 years before he became the starter.  I just think Allen has that Jordan quality where he hates losing exponentially more than he loves winning and he uses it to drive him.

 

Accuracy

Allen <<< Mahomes

I actually think the argument to be made is that Allen is now more accurate than Mahomes, but I'm giving Mahomes the edge here, despite the fact that Allen's completion percentage was higher than Mahomes.  I don't know why I'm giving Mahomes the edge (been doing it for longer? better deep ball thrower?), but at least at this moment I think it's possible that Mahomes is more accurate than Allen.  Then again, this might be me trying a little too hard to be objective here because I actually think Allen has made many more of those "wow!!!" throws on the bread and butter intermediate 10-30 yard passes than Mahomes has made this year.

 

 

I think those are all the individual categories you can cover with a QB.  What we have left are the external components like coaching and surrounding talent.  And Mahomes has the edge for those.  Despite our great WR corps, KC's top 3 receiving threats of Kelce, Hill and Hardman >>>> Diggs, Brown/Davis, Beasley.  And Reid/Bienamy/Spagnolo >>> (at least right now) McDermott/Daboll/Frazier.

 

 

So... has Allen "caught up" with Mahomes?  I actually think he's about there.  But again maybe overcompensating I'll say he isn't quite there, yet.

 

But the thing is, Allen is still improving.  Can we say that about Mahomes?

Before I replay to this I just want to make this perfectly clear I would never trade Allen for Mahomes at this point. I Love Allen and the future he brings to this team..

 

Accuracy I think completion % and accuracy is two different things. We have made this argument for Allen but it works against Allen also.  I have watched game film on both sides. About 20 hours of Allen's best game play and close to 19 hours on Mahomes game play. watched it all after the loss cause I wanted a better understanding of where our QB is at. Our receivers made some crazy catches under fire.. diving catches by Diggs, A diving catch by Davis earlier in the season, how the heck did Beasley get flipped 360 and get slammed into the ground and catch that all?, amazing to scratchers on the sidelines that made you say... no way they caught that ball... but they did... Now, Did Mahomes force some of those same throws in there? Did KC have some crazy catches? Yes but not the volume we have put up in numbers.  I give Mahomes a SLIGHT edge on ball placement.

 

Work Ethic Come on man.. Again... What Allen did to turn around was amazing.. No doubt he EARNED that award.. but each and every one of these guys work hard year in, year out to try and improve their game...  None of us know how hard Mahomes worked off season or during the season to even say who works harder at their game... Mahomes, Allen, Rodgers all in same tier this year. Grand spanking effing awesomeness.  I am not going to sit here and assume one works harder then another.. one has a better work ethic then the other...  what do you know that Mahomes did or didn't do to say this?? Even 

 

Im not going to completely destroy your post cause there is a whole lot I agree with you,, but in these 2 topics? I think your off.

 

 

 

 

10 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Their OL is way better.....how is that even possible though?  They were starting 3 backups vs us and starting 4 backups tomorrow in the super bowl. They’ll be playing without Fisher, Osemele, Duvernay-Tardif and Schwartz tomorrow playing against what is possibly the best front 7 in the league.  
 

I’m not saying that they aren’t better....I just don’t understand how a bunch of backup nobody’s can be better than our 15M LT, 10M C, Former all pro RT.  
 

much of this has to do with coaching, scheme and Mahomes’ QB play.  I don’t think their actual players along the OL are better than ours.  

I agree man.. I cant say how either? System ? Scheme? IDK but there was a clear difference.

[Thurman#1]

On 2/6/2021 at 12:46 AM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Hill's ascension to a first team all-pro WR happened when he got Mahomes as his QB in 2018.    

 

As @NewEra stated Hill was the first team all-pro return man in 2016.     For perspective, Andre Roberts was first team all-pro return man in 2018.  

 

Kelce was first team all-pro but that was relative.........Mahomes has basically increased his production by about 30% which is crazy considering he was already well into his prime and outstanding.

 

That's not to detract from those players but my point stands..........they were not nearly as lethal with "only" a pro bowl QB in Alex Smith..........in fact, that's why they went out and paid $16M per year to get Sammy Watkins.........they didn't feel they were explosive enough.    The 2017 Bills were able to shut them down and that was when they had the league's leading rusher as well.   Mahomes is a HUGE difference maker.

 

As for whether either will have greater weapons........who knows?    Allen's receivers caught more passes than any NFL team since 1995.   Once he gets paid they won't  likely be able to have a $30M three man WR corps anymore like they do now.    Mahomes has one more year before his cap # comes up and Allen has two.    At that point they both might have to make due with a little less.

 

 

 

Yes, Mahomes increased Tyreek's production by about 30% ... just by throwing to him more. His catch percentage was higher in 2017 (71.4%, which dropped to 63.5%  under Mahomes). He had 105 targets and then 137 under Mahomes. 

 

I'm not convinced he was much better with Mahomes, just more used, though. His yards per target was higher in 2017.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

Josh is my guy.  I wouldn’t trade him for Mahomes because he’s my guy.  

 

Unfortunately, it’s Mahomes by a billion.  So far

 

I'll take Allen. Not just because he's "my guy". But also because I like where he is trending. We've possibly seen the best from Mahomes already. He's not likely to ever have a better supporting cast. IMO we could swap QB's now and it wouldn't have changed a thing other than we would be watching Allen and the Chiefs getting ready to play the Bucs tomorrow.

 

Mahomes by a billion? If we are talking about career accomplishments then yes. No doubt. But the idea of "Allen having caught Mahomes" is not about career accomplishments. It's about is he on the same talent level at this moment in time? Would GM's take Allen over Mahomes today because they think that talent gap has narrowed enough and Allen is likely to hit his pre-draft ceiling?  GM's that like Allen are looking at his resume and seeing that he has taken giants leaps forward every year, but up a 2020 season on par with Mahomes despite having a clear personnel disadvantage. Taking that information and projecting it to the future. 

[Billl]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Athleticism

Allen  >>> Mahomes

This won't ever change, barring injury.  And although Mahomes is definitely athletic and elusive, I don't really think this one is arguable.

Josh is inarguably more athletic than the guy who’s been drafted in both the MLB and NFL drafts?  Mahomes played shortstop and pitcher with a 95 MPH fastball in HS.  Did I miss Allen getting drafted by the NBA or something?  Josh is a hell of an athlete, but so is Patrick.

[PrimeTime101]

48 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

This is ridiculous. 

at first I wanted to give you a smiley face but then thought no.. how will think I am laughing at him.

Then I thought about giving you thumbs up but I could not cause some of it is ridiculous and some isn't.

 

so i wrote the above to let ya know lol

[NewEra]

32 minutes ago, Billl said:

Josh is inarguably more athletic than the guy who’s been drafted in both the MLB and NFL drafts?  Mahomes played shortstop and pitcher with a 95 MPH fastball in HS.  Did I miss Allen getting drafted by the NBA or something?  Josh is a hell of an athlete, but so is Patrick.

Athletically, what can Mahomes do better than Allen on a football field?  
 

allen can do everything Mahomes can do plus he can stiff arm 2 defensive lineman into the dirt and carry 2 more LBs afterward. 
 

I agree that Mahomes is one of the best athletes in NFL history, but allens size and strength is what puts him on a different level imo.  John Wall is big, super fast and can jump.....that doesn’t mean he’s a better athlete than Lebron.  Who can do everything Wall can do, plus he’s just a bigger human being that can run through you.  Size/strength is a big part of ones athleticism imo.  Allen has that in bunches.  

[Dr.Sack]

What are we arguing about? Seems to me a better evaluation is in the longevity of their careers. Three seasons of elite play doesn’t mean squat in the grand scheme. Andrew Luck didn’t have it in him to go beyond age 29, Kelly retired at 36, Aikman at 34. NFL QB career arc varies wildly. Mahomes has shown a penchant for injury toes, knees, due possibly to his double-jointedness - which could be argued either as a blessing or curse. Mahomes was also knocked out cold in college and recently in the Divisional round. Allen has suffered numerous injuries - elbow, shoulder, concussion. 
 

If I’m evaluating a QB I want to see 10-20 years of elite play. 
 

Mahomes game and weapons will evolve as will Allen’s. They won’t always have Kelce (31), Diggs (27), Beasley (31), Watkins (27), Hill (27), to throw the ball to. 
 

QBs will retire, new stars are coming. The key to success goes beyond QB, and is attributed to the organization, coaching and dare I say fanbase. If we’ve learned anything in the last 20 years is that stability is a main predictor of success. 
 

 

[NewEra]

56 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I'll take Allen. Not just because he's "my guy". But also because I like where he is trending. We've possibly seen the best from Mahomes already. He's not likely to ever have a better supporting cast. IMO we could swap QB's now and it wouldn't have changed a thing other than we would be watching Allen and the Chiefs getting ready to play the Bucs tomorrow.

 

Mahomes by a billion? If we are talking about career accomplishments then yes. No doubt. But the idea of "Allen having caught Mahomes" is not about career accomplishments. It's about is he on the same talent level at this moment in time? Would GM's take Allen over Mahomes today because they think that talent gap has narrowed enough and Allen is likely to hit his pre-draft ceiling?  GM's that like Allen are looking at his resume and seeing that he has taken giants leaps forward every year, but up a 2020 season on par with Mahomes despite having a clear personnel disadvantage. Taking that information and projecting it to the future. 

No, you’ll take Allen because he’s your guy. You can say whatever you like and you can believe it.  I won’t.  Josh has the tools to be the better QB.  In 3 years he hasn’t shown that he’s nearly the QB that Mahomes is imo.  Watch them play in big games.  Mahomes has been calm and cool under pressure since day one.  Allen has been the opposite.  I believe that will come with time and Josh will get a SB or two, but to choose Allen over Mahomes because you think he might eventually get there isn’t a smart choice. It’s a homer choice.  💯 

 
I’m not coming down on Allen.   This has more to do with Mahomes doing things no one in the history of SPORTS has done.  Not just football.  He’s completely dominated since his first game and hasn’t shown any flaws....other than throwing passes that could’ve been intercepted but aren’t.  A stat I hadn’t heard about up we started comparing allen to mahomes

[NewEra]

39 minutes ago, Dr.Sack said:

What are we arguing about? Seems to me a better evaluation is in the longevity of their careers. Three seasons of elite play doesn’t mean squat in the grand scheme. Andrew Luck didn’t have it in him to go beyond age 29, Kelly retired at 36, Aikman at 34. NFL QB career arc varies wildly. Mahomes has shown a penchant for injury toes, knees, due possibly to his double-jointedness - which could be argued either as a blessing or curse. Mahomes was also knocked out cold in college and recently in the Divisional round. Allen has suffered numerous injuries - elbow, shoulder, concussion. 
 

If I’m evaluating a QB I want to see 10-20 years of elite play. 
 

Mahomes game and weapons will evolve as will Allen’s. They won’t always have Kelce (31), Diggs (27), Beasley (31), Watkins (27), Hill (27), to throw the ball to. 
 

QBs will retire, new stars are coming. The key to success goes beyond QB, and is attributed to the organization, coaching and dare I say fanbase. If we’ve learned anything in the last 20 years is that stability is a main predictor of success. 
 

 

This is a message board....people like to discuss things like this.  15 pages worth.  

You can certainly wait 10-20 years to discuss this though.  We won’t be mad at ya

[Billl]

45 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Athletically, what can Mahomes do better than Allen on a football field?  
 

allen can do everything Mahomes can do plus he can stiff arm 2 defensive lineman into the dirt and carry 2 more LBs afterward. 
 

I agree that Mahomes is one of the best athletes in NFL history, but allens size and strength is what puts him on a different level imo.  John Wall is big, super fast and can jump.....that doesn’t mean he’s a better athlete than Lebron.  Who can do everything Wall can do, plus he’s just a bigger human being that can run through you.  Size/strength is a big part of ones athleticism imo.  Allen has that in bunches.  

I think Mahomes has better acceleration and lateral agility.  Allen is maybe stronger, but I’m not sure that’s true.  Josh is 12 pounds heavier and 3 inches taller, so he’s not as thick.  I’ve seen both drag defenders, though Mahomes definitely picks his spots more carefully than Allen does.  If you look at what PM does in the playoffs running the ball, you get a better idea of what he’s capable of when he really needs it.  He’s got 4 rushing TDs in 7 games vs Josh’s 1 in 4 games.  The run against the Titans in last year’s AFCCG was an all time great QB run.

 

Josh is much more of a freight train once he gets going.  He’s also a tremendous athlete.  I just don’t know how you can say that he’s inarguably a better athlete than Patrick is when PM was good enough to play professional baseball as well as football.

 

They’re just very different types of players.  It’s going to be fun watching them but heads over the next decade plus.  I’d much rather argue about Mahomes vs Allen than whether my team should trade picks for a guy like Wentz or Darnold.