JGMcD2 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Ben Baldwin wrote an article predicting the MVP race today. Using the same method he’s predicted the last two MVPs, Mahomes and Jackson. This year he had his final 4 as Rodgers, Mahomes, Allen and Tannehill... because QBs are inherently more valuable than any other position, as long as MVP has the word “valuable” in it, it should go to a QB. Right at the onset he said it’s only a two man race: Rodgers and Mahomes. He threw out Tannehill and Allen for different reasons. “To placate Bills and Titans fans: Josh Allen had a great season that should make Bills fans excited for the upcoming playoff run and thrilled about the future. A mid-season slump — by his standards — was enough to knock the Bills out of contention for the No. 1 seed and Allen for the MVP award. Ryan Tannehill had a great season and led the league’s second-best offense, but I don’t think he has an argument over Mahomes or Rodgers. And on Derrick Henry, don’t even think about it: The Titans gained 166 EPA on Tannehill dropbacks and 31 EPA on Henry rush attempts.” He pretty much said that Josh’s mid-season slump took him out of the race, if I’m reading that directly. I went and looked at Josh’s mid-season slump using Baldwin’s metrics to evaluate Mahomes last 4 weeks of the season, which many commented was a drop-off from his normal play. Here are the results... Allen Weeks 5-8 Plays: 166 EPA+CPOE: 0.099 EPA/PLAY: 0.156 Un Adj. EPA: .127 CPOE: -0.6 Mahomes Weeks 13-16 Plays: 193 EPA+CPOE: 0.093 EPA/PLAY: 0.165 Un Adj. EPA: 0.128 CPOE: -2.2 There is virtually no difference... Josh Allen's mid-season slump by his metrics is identical to Patrick Mahomes end of the season slump... So I take it the argument now falls to the fact that Mahomes and the Chiefs were the #1 seed, that's why he's mentioned as a finalist with Rodgers? Link: https://theathletic.com/2260536/2021/01/07/nfl-mvp-patrick-mahomes-aaron-rodgers/?source=user_shared_article 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whkfc Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 What one do you want more Allen for MVP or a superbowl win? Me Ive seen a Bill win the league MVP before Ive never seen a Superbowl or any championship for a team that im a fan of before i wanna see how that feels badly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buffaloboyinATL Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Funny how other players seem to get dispensation from the national media for injuries, but no on ever seems to mention Josh's shoulder injury. I know it was not his throwing shoulder, but I am 100% convinced that it affected his play. I am really impressed that he played through this, and I am sure the team appreciates his toughness. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buftex Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, buffaloboyinATL said: Funny how other players seem to get dispensation from the national media for injuries, but no on ever seems to mention Josh's shoulder injury. I know it was not his throwing shoulder, but I am 100% convinced that it affected his play. I am really impressed that he played through this, and I am sure the team appreciates his toughness. I don't disagree with you about how it affected his play, but was Josh's shoulder injury ever really on the record? If he had missed game action because of it, he might get the same dispensation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JGMcD2 Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Buftex said: I don't disagree with you about how it affected his play, but was Josh's shoulder injury ever really on the record? If he had missed game action because of it, he might get the same dispensation. He was on the injury report because of it. Weeks 5-10 and came off the injury report after the bye in Week 12. Edited January 7, 2021 by JGMcD2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buffaloboyinATL Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Just now, Buftex said: I don't disagree with you about how it affected his play, but was Josh's shoulder injury ever really on the record? If he had missed game action because of it, he might get the same dispensation. I believe the shoulder harness that he wore impacted his throwing motion a bit. He was listed on the injury report for a few weeks with it and the games with the harness coincided with his "slump". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dukestreetking Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Thanks to @JGMcD2 for article (I'm not a subscriber) and cogent analysis. One thing we seem to forget amidst the shoulder injury discussion: JA's been playing w (significant??) knee and ankle injuries during/after Week 12. Nature unspecified, but bad enough to be consistently listed on the Injury Report. Indeed, last week was the first time I recall he was not wearing the knee brace, but don't quote me on that. So, like...triple-tough-greatness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBobs Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 2 hours ago, JGMcD2 said: There is virtually no difference... Josh Allen's mid-season slump by his metrics is identical to Patrick Mahomes end of the season slump... So I take it the argument now falls to the fact that Mahomes and the Chiefs were the #1 seed, that's why he's mentioned as a finalist with Rodgers? Link: https://theathletic.com/2260536/2021/01/07/nfl-mvp-patrick-mahomes-aaron-rodgers/?source=user_shared_article I think Mahomes gets a pass in part because his slump coincided with the Steelers complete collapse so the pressure was complete off the Chiefs for control of the conference and the Chiefs continued winning games. It also speaks to how high he set that bar that you could consider it a 'slump' while he still averaged 300+ yards a game with 2 TDs and an interception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nextmanup Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 It won't be Allen. I think the race is between Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers. I think Rodgers wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orlando Tim Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 As of this week Josh passed Mahomes on some boards in Vegas but it is Rodgers this year. The fact that he played lesser teams does not change that he has superior numbers in TD passes and interceptions. I think Josh has been better but many people saw his bad weeks and stopped watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 3 hours ago, Whkfc said: What one do you want more Allen for MVP or a superbowl win? Me Ive seen a Bill win the league MVP before Ive never seen a Superbowl or any championship for a team that im a fan of before i wanna see how that feels badly. I'll take both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4merper4mer Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Are these the same type of dweebs that think Tre is the 27th best corner in the NFL or that Duck Dodgers is better than Josh? Useless. I’m not Rodgers/Mahomes as MVP are unreasonable or that Tannehill isn’t underrated.....he is....but I saw something that had AJ Brown and Justin Jefferson were both listed in the top three receivers in the NFL from one of these outfits. Again...good players but some of this stuff is just crazy. Would you rather have AJ Brown over both Diggs and Hopkins? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whkfc Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 10 minutes ago, MJS said: I'll take both. greedy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSBill Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 5 hours ago, JGMcD2 said: Allen Weeks 5-8 Plays: 166 EPA+CPOE: 0.099 EPA/PLAY: 0.156 Un Adj. EPA: .127 CPOE: -0.6 Mahomes Weeks 13-16 Plays: 193 EPA+CPOE: 0.093 EPA/PLAY: 0.165 Un Adj. EPA: 0.128 CPOE: -2.2 I've been following football for my 40 years of adult life, and besides "Plays," I have no idea what those other categories are. When did I get off the bus ????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FieldGeneral Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Rodgers wins it. All offseason the talk of not fixing the offense was at the forefront. That they drafted his replacement. That he wanted out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangarang Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 3 hours ago, Nextmanup said: It won't be Allen. I think the race is between Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers. I think Rodgers wins. Its not even a race. Rodgers is going to win and it won’t be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 3 hours ago, Nextmanup said: It won't be Allen. I think the race is between Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers. I think Rodgers wins. Then you’d likely be wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 hour ago, GoBills808 said: Then you’d likely be wrong Doesn't this just mean that there is more money coming in on both Rodgers and Allen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 41 minutes ago, The Wiz said: Doesn't this just mean that there is more money coming in on both Rodgers and Allen? Not necessarily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrimeTime101 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 10 hours ago, Whkfc said: What one do you want more Allen for MVP or a superbowl win? Me Ive seen a Bill win the league MVP before Ive never seen a Superbowl or any championship for a team that im a fan of before i wanna see how that feels badly. how about both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ya Digg? Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 What’s I retesting is that they say Josh lost it because of his injury and play during the middle of the year, which is when the Bills arguably played their worst football....so the QB starts playing worse and the team plays worse, then the QB gets much better and the team gets much better. Obviously it’s not a direct correlation, but that sounds like an MVP to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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