Joshs development has been amazing

[Doc]

I'm impressed and astonished.  I don't care that he was picked 7th overall.  From 1999-2019, 61 QBs have been taken in the 1st round  Out of those, 31 have been outright busts and (arguably) about 9 (15%) have played around Josh's current level.

[Nihilarian]

On 11/16/2020 at 10:55 PM, NewEra said:

Who said they were astonished?

 

Weren’t you the one that said the most overrated resource is a 1st rd pick.  It’s a roll of the dice.  Even at the #7

There is one so called draft expert poster here that rated Allen a third round pick because of his accuracy issues. So many Bills fans here were on the Josh Rosen bandwagon before the draft and quite frankly many were "astonished" when the Bills selected Allen with that #7. 

 

In fact, the days leading up to that 2018 draft so many fans here were saying we should trade "the farm" to the NY Giants in order to move up to #2 to draft Rosen. One of our heralded mega posters stated he was "gut punched" by the Allen selection.  

 

So many Bills fans here likened Allen to Kyle Boller and stated he will never be any good because nobody fixes their completion percentage! Some of us here put up numerous instances of players fixing their completion percentage and so many here saying, nope a bum forever. Even after his first NFL season with all the issues to the Buffalo offense so many Bills fans here were still complaining the Bills made the wrong choice.

 

Thankfully, the Buffalo FO built a solid team around Josh so he could develop properly. Some of the very best receivers in the NFL in Diggs, Beasley, Brown. Most all Bills fans now see that tremendous heart, drive to win instilled in Josh Allen and have come to love him. Also, for his blue collar work ethic. No other QB drafted in the last five years even compares to Allen as a Buffalo Bill IMHO. Not Mahomes, not Watson, not Murray, not Prescott. Allen is the perfect QB for the Buffalo Bills.

 

Also, thankfully, the Bills FO in Beane, McD saw the talent in Allen ahead of those other NFL teams in 2018 and drafted the right guy. 

 

 

 

P.S. I have been wrong too, and that is with Bills OC Brian Daboll. Although, I'm still not entirely sold on his game planning, play calling at times. Plus, the Bills run game should be more of a priority going into the cold weather and at times its like Buffalo only uses it as a diversion at times. That with the QB the leading rusher in several games this season. Besides Allen running, the Bills only called 11 RB runs against Arizona. Allen with 49 passing attempts. The offense should be much more balanced. 

 

Nonetheless, there is no denying Allen has developed into that so much sought after franchise QB that this team has been looking for since Jim Kelly and the 90's.  Daboll has hand a hand in that.

 

 

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

for a guy with a yearly Josh Stats tracker .... 

 

Why hasn't @transplantbillsfan posted in this thread?

[Cruiserplayer]

Imagine how Ryan Gates feels now. Probably mildly impressed.

[78thealltimegreat]

4 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

There is one so called draft expert poster here that rated Allen a third round pick because of his accuracy issues. So many Bills fans here were on the Josh Rosen bandwagon before the draft and quite frankly many were "astonished" when the Bills selected Allen with that #7. 

 

In fact, the days leading up to that 2018 draft so many fans here were saying we should trade "the farm" to the NY Giants in order to move up to #2 to draft Rosen. One of our heralded mega posters stated he was "gut punched" by the Allen selection.  

 

So many Bills fans here likened Allen to Kyle Boller and stated he will never be any good because nobody fixes their completion percentage! Some of us here put up numerous instances of players fixing their completion percentage and so many here saying, nope a bum forever. Even after his first NFL season with all the issues to the Buffalo offense so many Bills fans here were still complaining the Bills made the wrong choice.

 

Thankfully, the Buffalo FO built a solid team around Josh so he could develop properly. Some of the very best receivers in the NFL in Diggs, Beasley, Brown. Most all Bills fans now see that tremendous heart, drive to win instilled in Josh Allen and have come to love him. Also, for his blue collar work ethic. No other QB drafted in the last five years even compares to Allen as a Buffalo Bill IMHO. Not Mahomes, not Watson, not Murray, not Prescott. Allen is the perfect QB for the Buffalo Bills.

 

Also, thankfully, the Bills FO in Beane, McD saw the talent in Allen ahead of those other NFL teams in 2018 and drafted the right guy. 

 

 

 

P.S. I have been wrong too, and that is with Bills OC Brian Daboll. Although, I'm still not entirely sold on his game planning, play calling at times. Plus, the Bills run game should be more of a priority going into the cold weather and at times its like Buffalo only uses it as a diversion at times. That with the QB the leading rusher in several games this season. Besides Allen running, the Bills only called 11 RB runs against Arizona. Allen with 49 passing attempts. The offense should be much more balanced. 

 

Nonetheless, there is no denying Allen has developed into that so much sought after franchise QB that this team has been looking for since Jim Kelly and the 90's.  Daboll has hand a hand in that.

 

 

 

One thing I always go back to in his rookie year after like two practices Shady McCoy who has never been one to not say what he thinks was asked what he thought of Josh...Shady smiled and said “You can tell he’s special”....indeed Shady indeed 

[Doc]

2 hours ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

for a guy with a yearly Josh Stats tracker .... 

 

Why hasn't @transplantbillsfan posted in this thread?

And several others...

[BADOLBILZ]

16 hours ago, Doc said:

I'm impressed and astonished.  I don't care that he was picked 7th overall.  From 1999-2019, 61 QBs have been taken in the 1st round  Out of those, 31 have been outright busts and (arguably) about 9 (15%) have played around Josh's current level.

 

 

Again....less than half of first rounders at any position play well enough to even get their 5th year option picked up.

 

And all of those that do get their option picked up aren't necessarily playing anywhere near expecation......some of them(like David Njoku for instance) just had their option picked up in the hope that they would play better.........it's only guaranteed for injury.

 

The bottom line is that the majority of 1st rounders at any position fail to make the anticipated impact..........maybe 25%-30% of them pan out as hoped.

 

That's still a good % compared to subsequent rounds........so it's far from random.

 

But if the odds of getting a franchise QB in round 1 is 15% and a stud at another position is only 25%-30%.........it's inexcusable to be passing on QB's........and not that much more surprising when they turn into stars at their position.

Edited November 19, 2020 by BADOLBILZ

[BADOLBILZ]

18 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

They are similar words, but with varying magnitudes... just like based on the last few seasons, we expected Josh should be hopefully good this year but the leading passer in the nfl nearly 70% 10 games in, 100+ passer rating, gaudy YPA??? That’s great. Who jumps ten points in completion percentage YoY? 
 

so I guess to your point since Josh has been great this season not just good. It’s more than impressive.. I wish there were a word to convey that. I’ll go with astonishing 

 

You go with whatever suits you.
 

I tend to firm up my expectations around things I have a deep and up close understanding of or are actively influencing.  
 

Absent one of those two things expectation is just a naive version of expectation called  hope. 

 

The entire debate is about magnitude.......I don't know anyone who is just disappointed in Josh Allen to this point.

 

If you trust your own evaluation of a player.........as many of us who follow college football and the draft year round do.........you can make your own assessment.....and if you liked Allen a lot at the time you wouldn't be astonished by his progress now.

 

Or if you just trust McBeane's judgement........then all the work to get to #7 overall to take Allen should have created an expectation that he would be a stud.  

 

If you are neither of those type of fans then I can certainly understand you being astonished or shocked or whatever the adjectives...........when you come from a position of no expectation and no personal opinion....... it's easy to be swayed by equally uniformed opinions in the media...........and success probably then feels like it came from nowhere.

 

I'm not really that way with any of the sports I follow closely..........I form my own opinions on players or if I can't see them I at least assign an expectation to them based on the relative value of the chips it took to add them.

 

Personally,  my comp for Allen the past 3 years has been John Elway..........but he may be morphing into a different type of player than that.........either way,  I had a HOF ceiling on the guy so I guess I am just more pleased at year 3 than astonished. 

[BADOLBILZ]

17 hours ago, BruceVilanch said:

I'm just here to see the breakdown between "astonished" and "Impressed"

 

 

Yeah I tell employees or contractors/accountants/attorneys etc. that I am impressed by their work all of the time..........I can't think of one such instance where either party would find "astonished" as an appropriate synonym.

 

"Your work on that safety audit was astonishing."  "Your opening statement was very astonishing."

 

I think it would be simultaneously less appreciated and more expensive to go the "astonished" route.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

19 hours ago, BruceVilanch said:

I'm just here to see the breakdown between "astonished" and "Impressed"

I know, I’ve been trolled.... 😔  I’m surprised the thread title was permitted by the adjective  appropriations committee. 

Edited November 19, 2020 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[Doc]

5 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Again....less than half of first rounders at any position play well enough to even get their 5th year option picked up.

 

And all of those that do get their option picked up aren't necessarily playing anywhere near expecation......some of them(like David Njoku for instance) just had their option picked up in the hope that they would play better.........it's only guaranteed for injury.

 

The bottom line is that the majority of 1st rounders at any position fail to make the anticipated impact..........maybe 25%-30% of them pan out as hoped.

 

That's still a good % compared to subsequent rounds........so it's far from random.

 

But if the odds of getting a franchise QB in round 1 is 15% and a stud at another position is only 25%-30%.........it's inexcusable to be passing on QB's........and not that much more surprising when they turn into stars at their position.

 

That the 1st round is the best round in which to find players, including franchise QBs, isn't news and wasn't what I was disputing: it was your "well, he was a first rounder, he should be a franchise QB" sentiment.  About a 1 in 7 chance aren't very good odds.  Add to that a QB who never eclipsed 60% passing in college or his first 2 years in the NFL...

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Doc said:

 

That the 1st round is the best round in which to find players, including franchise QBs, isn't news and wasn't what I was disputing: it was your "well, he was a first rounder, he should be a franchise QB" sentiment.  About a 1 in 7 chance aren't very good odds.  Add to that a QB who never eclipsed 60% passing in college or his first 2 years in the NFL...

 

 

FWIW.......we already crossed that "15%" bridge before you jumped in to argue.    Here is an excerpt from the 6th post in this thread:

 

"QB's are a bit more of a risk.........I think @Kirby Jackson had a data set once that said you could expect about 15% of first round QB's to become franchise QB's........but the reward is so much higher than that of drafting any other position so what was amazing  was how few shots the Bills had taken at QB's in round 1 in the prior 58 drafts."

 

 

As for those odds........a general 15% chance of getting an actual stud franchise QB?

 

Those odds ain't that bad when the chance of getting just a star player at any position is only like 1 in 4.

 

So yes.........based on statistical probability.......fans should anticipate most of their first round picks to be a disappointment on some level.

 

[Chandler#81]

On 11/16/2020 at 11:25 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

1) The OP.    The literal definition of "amazing" is "to be filled with astonishment".  

 

2) I've said that if you aren't using it on a QB.........a first round pick is the most overrated personnel chip.

 

Fans always EXPECT a first round pick to become a star...........but less than half play well enough to even get their 5th year option picked up.

 

QB's are a bit more of a risk.........I think @Kirby Jackson had a data set once that said you could expect about 15% of first round QB's to become franchise QB's........but the reward is so much higher than that of drafting any other position so what was amazing  was how few shots the Bills had taken at QB's in round 1 in the prior 58 drafts.

Yes! Legendary names like Johnny Green, JP Losman, EJ Manuel account for the 85%. Jimbo was a 1st Rounder, but he was our 2nd #1 that year. As for Allen’s 1st Round class, Mayfield & Darnold went before him, with Wrong Josh & Lamar. Jackson has been terrific but odd. We nabbed the best in that crap shoot.

[machine gun kelly]

Chandman, agreed.  Three years later Allen is the best QB from that class.  Mayfield is progressing and Lamar has improved, but they are not on Allen’s level.  Allen has proven this year he is a franchise Qb, and no one is perfect.  I could care less what the talking heads say as they change like the wind.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

4 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

Chandman, agreed.  Three years later Allen is the best QB from that class.  Mayfield is progressing and Lamar has improved, but they are not on Allen’s level.  Allen has proven this year he is a franchise Qb, and no one is perfect.  I could care less what the talking heads say as they change like the wind.

 

That they do in a week to week league.  

 

They flow with the HOT stories.  

 

or seek controversy to get clicks 

 

[PrimeTime101]

On 11/16/2020 at 7:43 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

It's been fun and it's impressive how much work Allen has put in........ but we shouldn't be astonished by a QB who was picked 7th overall playing at a high level in year 3.

Hold on.... im astonished by your comment... how many early draft picks have failed top 10 QB?

 

should I list?

[LABILLBACKER]

I wonder if fans realize Josh Allen is going to shatter Jim Kelly's best season (1991) of 3844. He may also break the 33 tds he threw that same year? He needs to avg 249/ game to catch Bledsoe for all time Bills record for a season.

Edited November 21, 2020 by LABILLBACKER

[Putin]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I wonder if fans realize Josh Allen is going to shatter Jim Kelly's best season (1991) of 3844. He may also break the 33 tds he threw that same year? He needs to avg 249/ game to catch Bledsoe for all time Bills record for a season.

Cake walk 

Edited November 21, 2020 by Putin

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

11 hours ago, Putin said:

Cake walk 

thats Teef’s TM 

😝 

12 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I wonder if fans realize Josh Allen is going to shatter Jim Kelly's best season (1991) of 3844. He may also break the 33 tds he threw that same year? He needs to avg 249/ game to catch Bledsoe for all time Bills record for a season.

what’s he at? 21.  

 

6 games 2 TD per game 

 

it will be close. 
 

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

Funny how hard some the doubters go to extremes to praise Josh now that he’s a proven commodity. 
 

yeah, you know who you are 

[BADOLBILZ]

15 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I wonder if fans realize Josh Allen is going to shatter Jim Kelly's best season (1991) of 3844. He may also break the 33 tds he threw that same year? He needs to avg 249/ game to catch Bledsoe for all time Bills record for a season.

 

 

Last season, New Orleans now-third-string QB Jameis Winston also surpassed Dan Marino's then-and-long-time record 1984 season passing yardage total of 5,084.

 

The passing yardage numbers of today are great for creating faux awe and "shattering" the seemingly modest records of QB's past.............but obviously totally out of perspective relative to those before the 2010 rule enforcement changes.   It's a disservice to Jim Kelly and even Drew Bledsoe to act like passing their yardage totals TODAY means much.

 

[BADOLBILZ]

16 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

Hold on.... im astonished by your comment... how many early draft picks have failed top 10 QB?

 

should I list?

 

 

Approximately 15% of 1st round QB's become franchise QB's........and only about 25% of first rounders at all positions play up to the expectation when drafted...........better than half fail to even get their 5th year options picked up.

 

If the difference between a 15% chance and 25% chance is where they draw the line between expectation and astonishment then I'd suggest that person is easily amazed.

 

Fans like to create narratives that include things like destiny and a singular stroke of good fortune etc.............like Josh Allen becoming good means something magical has happened............there isn't anything mystical going on they just finally addressed their basic math problems.........the most likely place to find a franchise QB is round 1.......and you miss 100% of the chances you don't take.

 

And their timing was right because the 2017 and 2018 classes are going to produce double or triple the average amount of franchise QB's.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Approximately 15% of 1st round QB's become franchise QB's........and only about 25% of first rounders at all positions play up to the expectation when drafted...........better than half fail to even get their 5th year options picked up.

 

I see this being stated over. and over.  and over again.

 

I don't think an upthread reference to something @Kirby Jackson may have posted about once (without any reference or information as to his method) makes it a fact, or justifies endless repetition.

Then there's the question of how exactly one defines "franchise QB", historically a vexing issue here which has often turned out to be "we don't know, exactly, but we know one when we see one".

 

It may be time to consider:

"Two Bills Drive is a great place to discuss opinions on the Buffalo Bills. We are here because we all have them!   Having an opinion is great, but "crusading" on behalf of that opinion is another. Please don't post the same thing over and over and over again. Agree to disagree."

 

 

[Mat68]

By every measure he is a top 5 qb right now.  The addition of Diggs removes the game plan elite teams used to beat Buffalo last year.  Man up and blitz.  Teams who have tried that have been scorched.  He has become a true franchise qb.  Poor running game, average defense, and Buffalo is 7-3.  Average qb Buffalo is in a much worst position, you could flip the wins ans losses in my opinion.  

[BADOLBILZ]

12 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I see this being stated over. and over.  and over again.

 

I don't think an upthread reference to something @Kirby Jackson may have posted about once (without any reference or information as to his method) makes it a fact, or justifies endless repetition.

Then there's the question of how exactly one defines "franchise QB", historically a vexing issue here which has often turned out to be "we don't know, exactly, but we know one when we see one".

 

It may be time to consider:

"Two Bills Drive is a great place to discuss opinions on the Buffalo Bills. We are here because we all have them!   Having an opinion is great, but "crusading" on behalf of that opinion is another. Please don't post the same thing over and over and over again. Agree to disagree."

 

 

 

 

@Doc came to the exact same 15% number independently.

 

I remember agreeing with @Kirby Jackson about the players he determined to be franchise QB level.........perhaps Doc can show his work.

 

In any event I do think that number is too low nowadays.

 

It included a lot of guys from pre-2010 NFL.

 

So far the 2017 and 2018 drafts have produced QB league MVP's in 2018 and 2019...........and Allen looks like the real deal as well.    I also suspect Darnold will go to Indy or San Fran next season and within two years emerge as a franchise QB.   So 3 of 8 now........but I suspect 4 of 8 will end up being franchise QB's from those two classes.

 

2019 class may prove a total dud but the 2020 class looks like it will produce a couple more.   Lawrence is darn near a sure thing in 2020.

 

Unless there are like 15 QB's taken in round one of 2020 and all but Lawrence flames out I suspect that 5 year sample is going to be a lot higher than 15%.

 

It's never been easier to play QB in the NFL.........I don't think anyone disputes that.........so I don't think it's a surprise that the hit rate on QB's in round one is trending upward.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

We don’t want Josh to lead the league in passing 

 

No SB winning QB ever led the league in pass yards 

 

The 3rd and 4th have but not THE leader. 

[PrimeTime101]

4 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Approximately 15% of 1st round QB's become franchise QB's........and only about 25% of first rounders at all positions play up to the expectation when drafted...........better than half fail to even get their 5th year options picked up.

 

If the difference between a 15% chance and 25% chance is where they draw the line between expectation and astonishment then I'd suggest that person is easily amazed.

 

Fans like to create narratives that include things like destiny and a singular stroke of good fortune etc.............like Josh Allen becoming good means something magical has happened............there isn't anything mystical going on they just finally addressed their basic math problems.........the most likely place to find a franchise QB is round 1.......and you miss 100% of the chances you don't take.

 

And their timing was right because the 2017 and 2018 classes are going to produce double or triple the average amount of franchise QB's.

I agree with everything you said accept what I originally replied to and your % game. where you get that info?

[Doc]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

@Doc came to the exact same 15% number independently.

 

I remember agreeing with @Kirby Jackson about the players he determined to be franchise QB level.........perhaps Doc can show his work.

 

In any event I do think that number is too low nowadays.

 

It included a lot of guys from pre-2010 NFL.

 

So far the 2017 and 2018 drafts have produced QB league MVP's in 2018 and 2019...........and Allen looks like the real deal as well.    I also suspect Darnold will go to Indy or San Fran next season and within two years emerge as a franchise QB.   So 3 of 8 now........but I suspect 4 of 8 will end up being franchise QB's from those two classes.

 

2019 class may prove a total dud but the 2020 class looks like it will produce a couple more.   Lawrence is darn near a sure thing in 2020.

 

Unless there are like 15 QB's taken in round one of 2020 and all but Lawrence flames out I suspect that 5 year sample is going to be a lot higher than 15%.

 

It's never been easier to play QB in the NFL.........I don't think anyone disputes that.........so I don't think it's a surprise that the hit rate on QB's in round one is trending upward.

 

I copied off of someone else (not Kirby Jackson, and I missed your quoting of his stat in that earlier post).  So yes, it's interesting that we both came to the same number.

 

https://www.volnation.com/forum/threads/draftnics-success-rate-for-1st-round-qbs.316657/

 

That person listed 13 franchise QBs.  I whittled-it-down to 9.  Looking at it again, I'd say you could maybe make a case for 12.

 

Again the point is that expecting a franchise QB when the odds are anywhere from 15-20% a team will get one isn't logical.  Sure it's the best round in which to find one, but the odds are poor you'll get one even there.  Now throw in how raw Josh was and his numbers his first 2 seasons...

[BillsFan619]

21 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I wonder if fans realize Josh Allen is going to shatter Jim Kelly's best season (1991) of 3844. He may also break the 33 tds he threw that same year? He needs to avg 249/ game to catch Bledsoe for all time Bills record for a season.

Wow! It looks like we have a keeper, Bills Mafia.

[BillsFan619]

4 hours ago, Mat68 said:

By every measure he is a top 5 qb right now.  The addition of Diggs removes the game plan elite teams used to beat Buffalo last year.  Man up and blitz.  Teams who have tried that have been scorched.  He has become a true franchise qb.  Poor running game, average defense, and Buffalo is 7-3.  Average qb Buffalo is in a much worst position, you could flip the wins ans losses in my opinion.  

Yep and it feels good.

 

I love the way you framed it. You’re right, if we had average QB play we’d be a below .500 team. This is what a good QB does, he makes his team better than they are.

Edited November 21, 2020 by BillsFan619

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

 

I copied off of someone else (not Kirby Jackson, and I missed your quoting of his stat in that earlier post).  So yes, it's interesting that we both came to the same number.

 

https://www.volnation.com/forum/threads/draftnics-success-rate-for-1st-round-qbs.316657/

 

That person listed 13 franchise QBs.  I whittled-it-down to 9.  Looking at it again, I'd say you could maybe make a case for 12.

 

Again the point is that expecting a franchise QB when the odds are anywhere from 15-20% a team will get one isn't logical.  Sure it's the best round in which to find one, but the odds are poor you'll get one even there.  Now throw in how raw Josh was and his numbers his first 2 seasons...

 

 

I can accept those odds because 1 in 7 ain't bad at all.........it certainly makes no sense to wait 60 years to pick one with your originally slotted first pick(or trade up from it) in round 1 with those odds(but of course, the Bills did).

 

 A 1 in 7 chance would be top-4 Vegas odds to win the SB this year.    

 

1 in 5.......hell that would trail only the Chiefs who are at 7/2.

 

But in reality the odds are probably higher.    

 

From 2011-2019......beginning when the new level of passer freedom kicked in:

 

28 QB's drafted in round 1

8 franchise QB's.....Newton, Luck, Goff, Mahomes, Watson, Allen, Jackson, Murray......including 3 MVP winners.

29% franchise QB hits over that span.

 

And that's fairly conservative......it doesn't count Tannehill or Wentz who have had season long stretches where they have looked like top 5 QB's.

 

And the jury is still out on a bunch of others.

 

So really we are probably looking at more like a 1 in 3 "expected" hit rate at this point.

 

Those are GREAT odds.

 

And the 2020 class has Burrow, Tua and Herbert in it's class of 4.......who all could be on that "likely franchise QB" list by this time next year.........which would put the 5 year hit rate around 50%.

 

I understand why people want to feel amazed.........but we aren't talking about the odds of a Lloyd Christmas/Mary Swanson hookup here.

 

Edited November 21, 2020 by BADOLBILZ

[Coach Tuesday]

My opening statements are astonishingly good.

 

That is all.  

[BillsFan619]

On 11/17/2020 at 9:34 AM, The Jokeman said:

I'll admit going into this season I envisioned Allen at best a top 10-15 QB and said that he'd likely never be a top 5 guy as didn't expect he'd ever be a better than 62-64% completion guy and maybe get 300 yards ever 3 games or so. Yet he really has improved his play significantly from last year. Though I do think he tried a little too much on Sunday which lead to his interceptions. He does need help in the running game and to me a better TE as to me Knox/Kroft are at best #2 TEs. I'd love for us to draft a kid like Kyle Pitts in the 1st round in 2021 and our offense be even more deadly.  Yet the defense needs to middle out aka be middle of the road if we are truly going to make a run at the title the next year or two as giving up 25 plus points a game isn't good enough. Also the offense needs to wake up in the 3rd quarter or at the very least running game keep us moving the chains to get more points on the board. 

I think what’s really cool is that he’s improved with tougher competition. This has probably been his toughest schedule of his three year career.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

8 hours ago, BillsFan619 said:

I think what’s really cool is that he’s improved with tougher competition. This has probably been his toughest schedule of his three year career.

good point.  
the schedule has been tougher this season 

[Doc]

15 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

I can accept those odds because 1 in 7 ain't bad at all.........it certainly makes no sense to wait 60 years to pick one with your originally slotted first pick(or trade up from it) in round 1 with those odds(but of course, the Bills did).

 

 A 1 in 7 chance would be top-4 Vegas odds to win the SB this year.    

 

1 in 5.......hell that would trail only the Chiefs who are at 7/2.

 

But in reality the odds are probably higher.    

 

From 2011-2019......beginning when the new level of passer freedom kicked in:

 

28 QB's drafted in round 1

8 franchise QB's.....Newton, Luck, Goff, Mahomes, Watson, Allen, Jackson, Murray......including 3 MVP winners.

29% franchise QB hits over that span.

 

And that's fairly conservative......it doesn't count Tannehill or Wentz who have had season long stretches where they have looked like top 5 QB's.

 

And the jury is still out on a bunch of others.

 

So really we are probably looking at more like a 1 in 3 "expected" hit rate at this point.

 

Those are GREAT odds.

 

And the 2020 class has Burrow, Tua and Herbert in it's class of 4.......who all could be on that "likely franchise QB" list by this time next year.........which would put the 5 year hit rate around 50%.

 

I understand why people want to feel amazed.........but we aren't talking about the odds of a Lloyd Christmas/Mary Swanson hookup here.

 

The time period I (or more precisely, the guy whose homework I copied) used was fine.  Players weren't prevented from being franchise QB's by not having passer freedom: you either had it within the rules of your era or you didn't. 

 

But speaking of the time period you mentioned, the Bills used a 1st round pick on EJ in 2013 and on Josh in 2018.  And except for Mahomes and Watson, which were admittedly mistakes on the Bills' part for bypassing them (made up for by taking Allen the following year), they had no shot at those other QBs.  Newton, Luck, Goff, Murray and Wentz if you want to throw him in were the 1st or 2nd overall picks.  As for Jackson, his 2019 season notwithstanding, I don't think he's a franchise QB, but we shall see, and the Bills took Allen earlier in that draft. 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Doc said:

 

The time period I (or more precisely, the guy whose homework I copied) used was fine.  Players weren't prevented from being franchise QB's by not having passer freedom: you either had it within the rules of your era or you didn't. 

 

But speaking of the time period you mentioned, the Bills used a 1st round pick on EJ in 2013 and on Josh in 2018.  And except for Mahomes and Watson, which were admittedly mistakes on the Bills' part for bypassing them (made up for by taking Allen the following year), they had no shot at those other QBs.  Newton, Luck, Goff, Murray and Wentz if you want to throw him in were the 1st or 2nd overall picks.  As for Jackson, his 2019 season notwithstanding, I don't think he's a franchise QB, but we shall see, and the Bills took Allen earlier in that draft. 

 

Yes,  it's quite obvious that they were.

 

It became A LOT easier to be a successful QB than it was prior to those rule enforcement changes.

 

It's not a real blurry line when things changed either.........Cam Newton threw for a rookie record 422 yards in his first NFL game in 2011. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Not sure this belongs here, don't want to start a thread for it

 

Steve Tasker interview of Brian Daboll, start out talking about Josh Allen and then go to other aspects of offensive play calling.

 

Some good stuff in there, but I come away from it with the impression that Tasker is definitely kind of a tool, which is an impression I didn't have before.

Example: he starts out asking Daboll if Josh Allen's development this season is a "pleasant surprise", "even in your wildest aspirations" did you see this, "was it a surprise for you?"

Hell of a bunch of questions for an OC who has publicly stated "my faith in Josh Allen will never waver" and put it out there how much he thinks of him as a player and a person.

 

Now that I think about it, I remember that one of the GMFB guys before the playoff game said when he asked Tasker what kind of game the Bills expected from Josh Allen said Tasker told him something like "We have no idea what kind of game he's going to have, we've been waiting for him all season" which bugged me as a tacky thing for essentially a Bills employee to say to national media when his team is 10-6 because they rested the starters in the final game and won big games under the bright lights on Thanksgiving and at Pittsburgh in large part on Allen's arm.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Some good stuff in there, but I come away from it with the impression that Tasker is definitely kind of a tool,

a lot of people think that of Steve. 
 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

a lot of people think that of Steve. 
 

 

I had no idea.  I remember him as our high-energy reliable gunner.

 

Say more?

 

I have to say the way Daboll handled it was silky-smooth for a coach coming off a heartbreaking loss with 4 hrs sleep.

He just calmly took the interview exactly where he wanted it to go.

[Warcodered]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I had no idea.  I remember him as our high-energy reliable gunner.

 

Say more?

 

I have to say the way Daboll handled it was silky-smooth for a coach coming off a heartbreaking loss with 4 hrs sleep.

He just calmly took the interview exactly where he wanted it to go.

Watching him on One Bills Live he always seemed to answer his own questions when interviewing players.