Erie County Dept. of Health Warning Fans Who Plan on Attending the Miami Game

[Lagoon Blues]

7 minutes ago, arcane said:

Man, I'm glad you dont have legislative influence. 

 

Any explanation for why America's ILI curve this season was identical to past years despite being a less communicable illness than covid, and unprecedented PPE use and lockdowns during the height of Hope-Simpson flu seasonality for each climate region in the country? Hint - epidemiologists using garbage-in garbsge-out assumptive computer modeling that is often off by an order of magnitude or more, who are fixated on non-immunoligical legislation, are not the place to go to find a genuine science-based explanation for this 

Been practicing up on your CTRL C and CTRL V I see...

[dwight in philly]

What if you wear a mask if you go? and sit 6 feet apart? 

[Franco_92]

Just now, Lagoon Blues said:

Been practicing up on your CTRL C and CTRL V I see...

Uh, okay? Google search my post and show me what I copied from? I'm typing on mobile while working bich itd be harder to use the internet than to summarize what I've already spent months learning and reading about and generating plots and regressions on myself 

[Lagoon Blues]

2 minutes ago, arcane said:

Uh, okay? Google search my post and show me what I copied from? I'm typing on mobile while working bich itd be harder to use the internet than to summarize what I've already spent months learning and reading about and generating plots and regressions on myself 

The lack of intellectual prowess is staggering.

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, arcane said:

Could be a good time to remind our local legislators that the pandemic planning literature from the WHO, CDC, ECDC (euro version) categorically recommend against the quarantine and restricted travel of healthy individuals. They made this determination from comprehensive review of all literature and study ever done on the topic. The experts are still insisting that we should have followed these protocols, if you're listening to the right ones. 

 

And using egregiously amplified PCR testing rates while regularly testing previously unsampled young, healthy populace, to write legislation, is abhorrently unscientific and asinine. 

 

CDC:

 

CDC uses Travel Health Notices (THNs) to tell travelers and other audiences about health threats around the world. On March 27, 2020, CDC posted a Level 3 Global COVID-19 Pandemic Notice. That notice advised travelers from the United States to avoid all nonessential travel to foreign countries and US Territories around the world. On August 6, 2020, CDC replaced the global travel notice with destination-specific COVID-19 THNs.

 

 

Quarantine is used to keep someone who might have been exposed to COVID-19 away from others. Quarantine helps prevent spread of disease that can occur before a person knows they are sick or if they are infected with the virus without feeling symptoms. People in quarantine should stay home, separate themselves from others, monitor their health, and follow directions from their state or local health department.

 

 

Some types of travel and activities can put you at higher risk for exposure to COVID-19 (see list below).  If you participated in higher risk activities or think that you may have been exposed before or during your trip, take extra precautions (in addition the ones listed above) to protect others for 14 days after you arrive:

• Stay home as much as possible.
• Avoid being around people at increased risk for severe illness from COVID-19.
• Consider getting tested for COVID-19.

What activities are considered higher risk?

Here are examples of activities and situations that can increase your risk of exposure to COVID-19:

• Being in an area that is experiencing high levels of COVID-19, including destinations with a Level 3 Travel Health Notice. You can check the Travel Health Notices for recommendations for places you have traveled, including foreign countries and U.S. territories.  You can also check states, counties, and cities to determine if these areas are experiencing high levels of COVID-19.
• Going to a large social gathering like a wedding, funeral, or party.
• Attending a mass gathering like a sporting event, concert, or parade.
• Being in crowds — for example, in restaurants, bars, airports, bus and train stations, or movie theaters.
• Traveling on a cruise ship or river boat.

11 minutes ago, arcane said:

Uh, okay? Google search my post and show me what I copied from? I'm typing on mobile while working bich itd be harder to use the internet than to summarize what I've already spent months learning and reading about and generating plots and regressions on myself 

 

Now even YOU are plotting against you?

 

Trust no one!!!

[Beast]

2 hours ago, MiltonWaddams said:

Will you be joining 12000 people in a stadium for your work trip?

 

Who's to say what I will be doing. There will be football games I can attend while I am down there.

[LabattBlue]

I have a family member who upon arriving back in Buffalo recently from a restricted state, scribbled illegibly all the info required, threw it at the person and kept walking.  So proud to call them family. 
 

👎

[Franco_92]

15 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

CDC:

 

CDC uses Travel Health Notices (THNs) to tell travelers and other audiences about health threats around the world. On March 27, 2020, CDC posted a Level 3 Global COVID-19 Pandemic Notice. That notice advised travelers from the United States to avoid all nonessential travel to foreign countries and US Territories around the world. On August 6, 2020, CDC replaced the global travel notice with destination-specific COVID-19 THNs.

 

 

Quarantine is used to keep someone who might have been exposed to COVID-19 away from others. Quarantine helps prevent spread of disease that can occur before a person knows they are sick or if they are infected with the virus without feeling symptoms. People in quarantine should stay home, separate themselves from others, monitor their health, and follow directions from their state or local health department.

 

 

Some types of travel and activities can put you at higher risk for exposure to COVID-19 (see list below).  If you participated in higher risk activities or think that you may have been exposed before or during your trip, take extra precautions (in addition the ones listed above) to protect others for 14 days after you arrive:

• Stay home as much as possible.
• Avoid being around people at increased risk for severe illness from COVID-19.
• Consider getting tested for COVID-19.

What activities are considered higher risk?

Here are examples of activities and situations that can increase your risk of exposure to COVID-19:

• Being in an area that is experiencing high levels of COVID-19, including destinations with a Level 3 Travel Health Notice. You can check the Travel Health Notices for recommendations for places you have traveled, including foreign countries and U.S. territories.  You can also check states, counties, and cities to determine if these areas are experiencing high levels of COVID-19.
• Going to a large social gathering like a wedding, funeral, or party.
• Attending a mass gathering like a sporting event, concert, or parade.
• Being in crowds — for example, in restaurants, bars, airports, bus and train stations, or movie theaters.
• Traveling on a cruise ship or river boat.

 

Now even YOU are plotting against you?

 

Trust no one!!!

I'm talking about pandemic planning literature that was complied over decades and established before covid-19 existed. 

 

While you're at it, please post Miami hospital data, preferably rolling averages compared to this time period historically, and show me the excess death and bed numbers. I'll wait, and then cry at the doom and gloom currently ravaging the hospitals, er, I mean 45 Ct labs

26 minutes ago, Lagoon Blues said:

The lack of intellectual prowess is staggering.

Because your two posts have taught me so much about covid.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 minutes ago, arcane said:

Ooh, I appear to have struck a little nerve.i appreciate your good-faith compliment r.e. my vocabulary. 

 

The literature categorically recommends against the quarantine of healthy individuals even in the height of the disease curves which passed in NY months ago. The literature is clear, their justification complete with examples. They sum up their positions in simple and complete tables, and their conclusions are what I stated. I will not be searching the pdfs at work while on mobile, but if I have time tonight I might be able to get to it for you. I know, it stings when real science cuts through the view you have spent months cultivating. We have legislated like headless chickens and it will be looked back on as such. 

 

PCR amplification above 35 cycles (2**n increase in DNA magnification for n increase in cycles) indicating a positive result is often indicative of a nonviable virus load that does not induce symptoms or viral transfer in the real world. In a human body with a typical immune system, that number is closer to thirty. Most labs I've seen are operating between 35 and 45 cycle threshold, which is inducing a huge number of positive cases that should not by any definition be considered positive. This distinction is why countries like Uruguay seem to be "performing well" compared to neighbors- they just have more pragmatic/consistent lab procedures. But here, in america and the west, we decide to institute weekly testing of a previously unsampled population whether they display symptoms or not, at these insane amplification rates, and are wringing our hands at the results, and letting them dictate the test-rate laws we've already written. This doesnt even consider that at this amplification we can detect dead (the test makes no distinction) fragments from as long as 12 weeks prior. There is no honest lens through which you can look and give serious, genuine justification to this practice, and it will be an embarrassment to look back on down the line. This type of testing is not and was never designed to be used as a case metric the way we are using it. This is the asinine testing I was referring to. PCR tests at an appropriate threshold for those experiencing symptoms are incredible tools. This is their domain. 

 

Ah-Ha!  I'm starting to get the picture here.

Would you, by any chance, be one of those asymptomatic people in America being subjected to weekly testing and having your movement restricted on the basis of a positive test?

 

Since we aren't, in fact, instituting weekly testing in America or the West except at a few colleges and universities (and in a few places, HCW at congregate living facilities), the bolded statement and indignation about "cycle threshold" indicates you may be a member of a group of healthy dudes being subjected to such testing.

 

People who develop RT-PCR testing and visit enough diagnostic laboratories to justify phrases like 'most labs' likely use different terminology than "amplification rate", especially applied to RT-PCR vs Q-PCR.  Just sayin'.  BTW, what was the cycle number specified in the original WHO and CDC covid-19 diagnostic tests?

 

Virologists understand that a single test can't tell you which side of the titer/days since exposure curve the patient is on (increasing or decreasing titer), that the question of sample storage time is a confounding factor, and that we really have very little firm data

 

But by all means, search for those .pdfs recommending against quarantine of exposed healthy individuals for containment of a disease with extensive spread by asymptomatic and presymptomatic people and provide them - over in the Off the Wall covid threads.   The sources you have definitively correlating PCR cycle threshholds with covid-19 infectivity would also of great interest and I'll await them easily.

 

Meanwhile, my tolerance for non-football-related generalized covid-19 ranting in the football board is at a low ebb - See you over on the Off the Wall Covid threads with your sources.  CAN'T WAIT!

 

 

 

 

[Franco_92]

I was a little sloppy in the umbrella of categorical recommendation - that is true for the quarantine of healthy individuals, but they do *advise that countries* recommend their individuals *voluntarily refrain from travel to hot spots. Of course, southern US Hope-Simpson seasonality matches the relevant numbers which suggest that Miami is past its hot spot. 

 

But the realities of climate-dependent illness (https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316) coupled with the physical/biological mechanisms for this behavior (via aerosol half-life and gravitational loss) render any non-immunological legislation to being the useless clusterf* that it has been, as evidenced by zero correlation between any of these measures and covid impacts analyzed at the county level, aggregated to the national level. This is true of masks (check "all states" here: https://rationalground.com/interactive-tool-masks-covid-19/?fbclid=IwAR3c1cX-pJ6bUO-H9wQM2dyqKwJbXUOc2Jfjl3-hjllpRjIv1PHhuzX3MPQ), lockdowns (use google mobility data (i'd stick with retail & recreation as the best proxy for lockdown legislation) and plot rolling average of hospitalizations against this data, and adjust for a 1-2 week lag, and you'll find that seasonality is the only thing driving spikes, and that no abrupt change in covid impacts on hospitals is ever preceded by meaningful change in mobility, in the half of the states that got hit in their predicted Hope-Simpson season, you can associate lockdowns with more cases, while you can do the opposite for the states hit later, which renders the lockdowns useless as a driving variable), anything else we've tried. But we must continue to do things so we can feel like we are stopping things! 

 

[Mod Edit.  Dude: glad to see you're providing a few references and acknowledge being a "little sloppy in the umbrella of categorical recommendation". 😇 Further discussion of the general covid-19 thing in the OTW covid-19 threads, Please.  And be sure to bring your references about the correlation between cycle threshold and demonstrated covid-19 infectivity, K?  CAN'T WAIT!  

 

In case this hint wasn't clear enough let me translate: further general covid posts  in this thread will disappear.]

[prissythecat]

2 hours ago, Beast said:

To put this into prespective, I have to travel to Florida in October concerning work. However,  since I am an "essential" employee, I do not have to quarantine when I return to New York.

 

Makes sense, huh?

 

The exemption for essential workers has some terms and conditions.  You don't have carte blanche to do whatever you want...

 

NY State Quarantine Guidelines

[Hapless Bills Fan]

45 minutes ago, billspro said:

This is true. It’s statistically insignificant. 

 

Actually, it's felt that the "false negative" rate for people who actually have or develop symptoms relevant to covid-19 by naso-pharangeal sampling and are positive on repeat testing may be as high as 29%.  One review study on the preprint server medrxiv suggests 54% (keep in mind that server means it's not peer reviewed yet)

Factors relating to this include:

1) where the virus is located when the test is conducted - if it's moved on from the upper respiratory tract into the lungs or internalized, it may not be detected.  Some countries do lavage, blood, and stool sampling on symptomatic patients for this reason.

2) how well the sample was taken or other sampling interference - if a nasopharangeal sample isn't deep enough, for example

3) duration of sample storage time and sample storage conditions between collection and test - this is a real question in states where tests can take 10-14 days to be run

4) days since exposure - there's a good Annals of Internal Medicine paper out of JHU on this point.  Popular article about it.  Basically, if you may be infected and are tested prior to day 4 since exposure, very good chance of a false negative test.

[Mr. WEO]

14 minutes ago, arcane said:

I'm talking about pandemic planning literature that was complied over decades and established before covid-19 existed. 

 

While you're at it, please post Miami hospital data, preferably rolling averages compared to this time period historically, and show me the excess death and bed numbers. I'll wait, and then cry at the doom and gloom currently ravaging the hospitals, er, I mean 45 Ct labs

Because your two posts have taught me so much about covid.

 

 

 

 

.....then COVID-19 existed and those were the CDC's recommendations ( to refresh your memory, you posted this: "WHO, CDC, ECDC (euro version) categorically recommend against the quarantine and restricted travel of healthy individuals."  ).  Sure looks like the CDC is recommending quarantine after high risk exposure behavior AND restricted travel (they clearly are).  

 

I'm not sure what Miami hospital data you are requesting....rolling averages of death from any cause?  Why would that help you?  Do you mean summer-time deaths from other viruses?

 

 

 

 

 

 

[RyanC883]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

See, this is where I start to lose patience.  "Everybody's an Infectious Disease Expert" who can proclaim what "common sense" is with regard to infectious disease.  NOT.

 

A negative Covid test is a snapshot in time.   The median time from exposure to an infectious titer is 4-5 days, but the range is 2-12 days - meaning someone can be infected with covid-19 and not develop a titer that would show up on a covid-19 test for 12 days. 

The 14 day quarantine period is the result of data that only 101 out of 10,000 people would still develop covid-19 symptoms (and test positive) after 14 days pass.

 

So it's COMMON SENSE that you quarantine for 14 days even if you have a negative test 4-5 days after exposure, because you may still be infected.

 

although many health departments do not require a quarantine if you have a negative test. 

[North Buffalo]

1 hour ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Common sense??  So are you proposing people who go to Miami come back and get tested and if it's negative they are fine, no worries? It takes up to 14 days after exposure before you could test positive and in turn pass on to others.  You could return get tested every day for the first seven days and be negative, then stop being tested, then on day 11 you have the virus in you and are capable of passing it to others, and BTW could still test negative.  Now you exposed the virus to others, finally on day 12 you develop symptoms yourself, get tested again and it comes back positive.

 

No idea what your logic is that a negative test would mean you don't need to quarantine??

 

Having heard to from a couple of people who actually were sick with Covid, health officials were only concerned with the people they interacted with in the 48 hours prior to them developing symptoms.  So apparently 5 days or so prior to a person having symptoms, they aren't able to be spreaders.  Also sounds like most people develop symptoms within a week of exposure, but in some cases can be up to 14 days so to be cautious require a 14 day period.

Wrong... man people have a lot of incorrect info.  It can take up to 14 days for exposure to manifest itself.  Up to, it can happen before.  Asymptomatic people can spread disease... In addition its all about viral load and proximity to an infected person as to whether or not you catch it.  Jeez there is a lot of misunderstanding out there about the disease.  The 14 day quarantine from potential exposure is generally the most it takes for you to have the disease symptomatic or asymptomatic and spread it to others.  

54 minutes ago, dwight in philly said:

What if you wear a mask if you go? and sit 6 feet apart? 

Generally means you are safe... and wash your hands regularly while there and dont touch anything and then yourself ...  

54 minutes ago, dwight in philly said:

Edited September 14, 2020 by North Buffalo

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

.....then COVID-19 existed and those were the CDC's recommendations ( to refresh your memory, you posted this: "WHO, CDC, ECDC (euro version) categorically recommend against the quarantine and restricted travel of healthy individuals."  ).  Sure looks like the CDC is recommending quarantine after high risk exposure behavior AND restricted travel (they clearly are).  

 

I'm not sure what Miami hospital data you are requesting....rolling averages of death from any cause?  Why would that help you?  Do you mean summer-time deaths from other viruses?

 

Let's move this to the covid-19 thread please.  Thanks.

[PromoTheRobot]

2 hours ago, Beast said:

To put this into prespective, I have to travel to Florida in October concerning work. However,  since I am an "essential" employee, I do not have to quarantine when I return to New York.

 

Makes sense, huh?

 

Maybe they assume as an essential worker you won't go unmasked to a pool party with a thousand people?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

54 minutes ago, arcane said:

Uh, okay? Google search my post and show me what I copied from? I'm typing on mobile while working bich itd be harder to use the internet than to summarize what I've already spent months learning and reading about and generating plots and regressions on myself 

 

May I gently recommend you refrain from posting until you are in an environment that allows you to share your months of learning in a more coherent fashion?

[ziltoid]

This discussion ended as expected.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, RiotAct said:

then why don’t they just state that???

 

That's a really good question.  I got that from seeing it in print, now I need to dig it up.

 

So the NYS Phase 4 Reopening guidelines are no spectators, no tailgating:

https://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/2020/07/no-fans-will-be-allowed-to-attend-buffalo-bills-games-during-covid.html

"One of the mandatory conditions in the physical distancing section reads: “Ensure that no live audience, fans, or spectators are allowed to attend or permitted to enter any professional sports venue, even if an outdoor venue. Prohibit fans from congregating outside the venue and implement a security plan to safely disperse any individuals that gather outside of the venue.” "

 

So then there's this Bills statement that these guidelines will remain unchanged for "at least the first two games".  The implication is something could change it - what?

 

Then there's this statement from Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz:

https://www.wivb.com/news/local-news/erie-county/erie-county-executive-says-if-people-dont-take-precautions-ban-on-bills-game-may-extend-into-october/

 

"Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz says our infection rate in Western New York could lead to the state announcing no fans will be allowed inside football stadiums indefinitely, especially as the region’s rates are higher than the rest of the state. 

While the Bills announced yesterday no fans will be there for the two home games next month – the County Executive says we still have a shot to attend the home games in October, but it will only be if we get our positive cases down."

 

 

I guess it's my inference that if WNY gets positive cases down more towards some of the lower infection rate regions, fans at football games will be back on the table (according to discussions with the state that Poloncarz may be, to use the immortal words of Whaley, "privy to"

 

Reasonable inference/not reasonable?

 

You be the judge.

 

 

 

 

 

[Mr. WEO]

9 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Let's move this to the covid-19 thread please.  Thanks.

 

I'm bailing out.  

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

15 minutes ago, North Buffalo said:

Wrong... man people have a lot of incorrect info.  It can take up to 14 days for exposure to manifest itself.  Up to, it can happen before.  Asymptomatic people can spread disease... In addition its all about viral load and proximity to an infected person as to whether or not you catch it.  Jeez there is a lot of misunderstanding out there about the disease.  The 14 day quarantine from potential exposure is generally the most it takes for you to have the disease symptomatic or asymptomatic and spread it to others.  

Generally means you are safe... and wash your hands regularly while there and dont touch anything and then yourself ...  

 

 

That's exactly what I said.

 

From my post

Also sounds like most people develop symptoms within a week of exposure, but in some cases can be up to 14 days so to be cautious require a 14 day period.

[Franco_92]

Hapless, I'm sorry, I'm just seeing your warnings about moved posts now. I logged out of work to be able to access a couple of links there, but I can't spend any more time away right now, I have things to do. Feel free to move the posts. No promises I can get back today, I have a busy day. And no promises I'll care enough to head off the wall and find the discussion again when I do get some free time

[Hapless Bills Fan]

51 minutes ago, Beast said:

Who's to say what I will be doing. There will be football games I can attend while I am down there.

 

It's a valid point, unless we establish a police state, all Public Health measures ultimately depend upon the good will of the individual to act towards the Public Good by behaving to minimize exposure while traveling on essential business, and voluntarily complying with the measures.

 

I think the point about essential workers vs. travel for pleasure is 1) the number of essential workers traveling is expected to be fewer than those traveling just for fun 2) rightly or wrongly, essential workers are expected to be more motivated to avoid infection.

 

Both those expectations could, of course, be flat out wrong.

 

[North Buffalo]

13 minutes ago, arcane said:

I've never taken a covid test, and gratefully finished up grad school and came back home to start work about 3 weeks before the virus was discovered in Wuhan. In fact, working from home is the norm at my position, and so my life may have been impacted the least by the coronavirus pandemic out of anyone you could find from a random selection of thousands of individuals. I am eternally grateful for my luck in this, and I mean that sincerely. You may be taking me for a "covid is a hoax!" person, but I merely insist that the pandemic knowledge we possessed before December 2019 is correct, and the frenzied rush of nonsensical legislation in some western nations was both damaging and useless, as that knowledge predicted it would be.(I will forever chuckle at the lauding of Peru, Belgium that took place weeks and months before they assumed positions 1 & 2 atop total coronavirus deaths per civilian in the entire world, and that of the US states which would hold that record themselves if they were counted as their own nation). But it was a genuine pandemic that killed a lot of people and destroyed a lot of lives with secondary, tertiary etc. effects that rippled from our decisions (both good and bad). I certainly acknowledge this. Luckily, a lot of the real science and speculation I hint at suggests that we are in a pretty decent spot moving forward all things considered.

Of course, if you need me to be a jaded undergrad who just wants to partay and doesn't want muh rights trampled, feel free. This is an anonymous internet forum after all. 

When you parse testing data by age group, you'll find that the rise in cases is almost always related to this huge spike in testing. This corresponds to dozens of thousands of confirmed positives over a span of just a couple weeks, from just a handful of colleges, with no associated hospitalizations.  An example here:

I'll let you guess what phenomenon played into that. 

 

I certainly don't claim to run around to labs and do important medical jobs like that. So forgive my layman's terminology. Let's not pretend you've provided tangible material counter to this though, rather than engaging in reddit-tier debate fallacies. You're reeling a bit, as resident covid "expert," and it's enjoyable to see from the perspective of someone only interested in understanding things as well as possible, and watching you misdiagnose so much about me personally.

 

But I do insist that, to my understanding, "amplification" is the proper phrase used when discussing the RNA/DNA replication that PCR cycles are built to employ. The tests make billions of copies of these fragments. The cycle threshold sets the sensitivity of these measurements, and should only be set at levels that can detect viable viral loads in the blood of those being tested. The NY Times have reported on this phenomenon too, so it's not some fringe take. Some labs have obfuscated their cycling practices, while others set the number ridiculously high. We legislate based on these results, and there's no consistency or logical grounding in them. Again, this way of handling things will be widely derided in the near future. 







 

Agree the testing and its consistency is problematic.  That being said, this is not a case of increased testing for the increase in positives.... more related to few infected persons going into a large gathering of irresponsible young folks not practicing social distancing and standard precautions.  The disease causes heart attacks, long term vascular issues, PEs and aneurysms even in asymptomatic otherwise healthy people.  Those with other issues are at even greater risk regardless of testing.  Please be safe people. Just not worth it.

 

PS I work in a hospital just outside NYC, saw the worst of it and though down to a dull roar... 1 dying a week v 11 a day at its height... it is still around and know a few nurses still experiencing issues since April infection.  

Edited September 14, 2020 by North Buffalo

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 minutes ago, arcane said:

Hapless, I'm sorry, I'm just seeing your warnings about moved posts now. I logged out of work to be able to access a couple of links there, but I can't spend any more time away right now, I have things to do. Feel free to move the posts. No promises I can get back today, I have a busy day. And no promises I'll care enough to head off the wall and find the discussion again when I do get some free time

 

I apologize, unfortunately I have no ability to move posts.  However, since you're making a good faith effort to listen, I do appreciate that and will adjust accordingly.  *poof*.

I will look forward to seeing your sources correlating covid-19 RT-PCR cycle threshold with Sars-Cov2 viral infectivity as I know many people who would be most interested in solid information upon this point.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

3 minutes ago, North Buffalo said:

Agree the testing and its consistency is problematic.  That being said, this is not a case of increased testing for the increase in positives.... more related to few infected persons going into a large gathering of irresponsible young folks not practicing social distancing a precautions.  The disease causes heart attacks, long term vascular issues, PEs and aneurysms even in asymptomatic otherwise healthy people.  Those with other issues are at even greater risk regardless of testing.  Please be safe people. Just not worth it.

 

Did you see the video from Miami of Ohio where the kid was positive, was told to quarantine so had the party at his house.  He didn't go out, so figured he was following the rules!

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

19 hours ago, billspro said:

If you have had it and test negative it means you have immunity to it and are no longer spreading it.

 

If you haven’t had it and test negative you can still get it at any moment. The test is just a snap shot of one moment.

 

If you had it,  you should have Antibodies which can be verified.  If you donate blood at the Red Cross they will test for Antibodies  

Kind of like a free test.  After a period of time you no longer spread it. 

 

I do not believe a negative test says you were ever exposed to it.  *   It just means you don't have it.

If Hap tells me I am wrong, I will believe her as she is in the field of medicine

 

 

EDIT *  this is why players are tested continuously.  

Edited September 15, 2020 by SlimShady'sSpaceForce

[Beast]

1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

Maybe they assume as an essential worker you won't go unmasked to a pool party with a thousand people?

 

Do you think I wouldn't attend a college football game if I got the chance to?

Edited September 14, 2020 by Beast

[North Buffalo]

45 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Did you see the video from Miami of Ohio where the kid was positive, was told to quarantine so had the party at his house.  He didn't go out, so figured he was following the rules!

Yep idiot.

[BullBuchanan]

2 hours ago, billspro said:

This is true. It’s statistically insignificant. 

That does not appear to be true. Where are you getting that information?

2 hours ago, billspro said:

If you have had it and test negative it means you have immunity to it and are no longer spreading it.

 

If you haven’t had it and test negative you can still get it at any moment. The test is just a snap shot of one moment.

That is also not true on either point. A person with a false negative can spread it, and there have already been cases of people getting it more than once. Likely different strains and perhaps not common enough to worry about, but the concern is about people spreading disease.
https://abc7chicago.com/health/nevada-man-becomes-first-in-the-us-to-catch-covid-19-twice/6393798/
 

[BullBuchanan]

10 minutes ago, billspro said:

Of course people with a false negative can spread it. If you have a false negative it means your positive. It just doesn’t happen frequently enough to worry about. Unless the goal is to bring COVID transmission to 0%, which does not seem realistic to me. 
 

You can get any disease more than once. You can also get COVID if you have a vaccine to it. It just means your immune system will be more prepared and you are more likely to be asymptomatic. This is basic immunology and if you haven’t taken a course you shouldn’t talk about COVID online imo.

What are you basing this on? You keep repeating it but won't back it up with data. For reference, my company provides B2B software platforms as solutions for our clients. Anything over 99.9999 % uptime is in breach of our contracts which amounts to 56 minutes per year. By contrast, if the COVID test has a 99% accuracy rating, across the global population it amounts to 76,000,000 with false negatives or 2 1/2 times the total amount of people that have reportedly had the virus. From the data reported, 99% seems optimistic.

 

"Two studies from Wuhan, China, arouse concern about false negative RT-PCR tests in patients with apparent Covid-19 illness. In a preprint, Yang et al. described 213 patients hospitalized with Covid-19, of whom 37 were critically ill.² They collected 205 throat swabs, 490 nasal swabs, and 142 sputum samples (median, 3 per patient) and used an RT-PCR test approved by the Chinese regulator. In days 1 through 7 after onset of illness, 11% of sputum, 27% of nasal, and 40% of throat samples were deemed falsely negative"

 

"Assessment of clinical sensitivity in asymptomatic people had not been reported for any commercial test as of June 1, 2020."

 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2015897#:~:text=In days 1 through 7,at least one respiratory specimen.

[Billsfan1972]

And you wonder why the #'s in the US continue at the current levels?  

 

Really it's just a football game (that will be on TV), but people feel the need to travel & go to the Stadium.....

 

 

[CA OC Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, Beast said:

To put this into prespective, I have to travel to Florida in October concerning work. However,  since I am an "essential" employee, I do not have to quarantine when I return to New York.

 

Makes sense, huh?

I just came into the state yesterday and am considered an essential worker. I got tested this morning so that I can go into work as soon as I get results (I got the rapid test so already have results). The NYS Covid Tracing called me this morning also to go over everything. I was under the same impression as you, no need to quarantine with the negative test results. They told me this is incorrect. I can go into work based on the results but must otherwise quarantine for 14 days. The reasoning is the incubation period. If I was exposed in the last few days, I may give a negative test result but still have it and still be contagious. So, I can go to work and then go home and isolate myself at home.

[PromoTheRobot]

1 hour ago, Beast said:

 

Do you think I wouldn't attend a college football game if I got the chance to?

 

Do you know why I had to get tested recently? Because my barber told me 2/3rd way through my haircut about his fun weekend in Sturgis.

 

I don't know what you do for a living but if you interact closely with people you should take extra care. At least let people know what you did over the weekend.

 

ICYW I was negative.

Edited September 14, 2020 by PromoTheRobot

[BullBuchanan]

10 minutes ago, billspro said:

Every test likely has a different sensitivity. It suppose to be 99%, which is a very good sensitivity for a medical test. 

There is obviously nothing I can say to change your mind. You believe very strongly in a 14 day quarantine. I am okay with people being out in public after testing negative. That is how my area handles COVID and we have been very successful.

 

Not necessarily, no. I just see you saying dangerously incorrect things about a virus and felt the need to interject. What I believe is immaterial to your statements. 

Where are you getting 99% testing accuracy? The article I linked published by the New England journal of medicine showed a 7% - 40% false positive rate for the tests out of Wuhan. And it seems the accuracy of the US tests is unknown. John Oliver did an expose on the antigen tests and how there's little to no oversight on that process.
 

 

[NickelCity]

6 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

John Oliver did an expose on the antigen tests and how there's little to no oversight on that process.

 

 

The in depth investigations on that show are phenomenal. 

[Gugny]

6 hours ago, Beast said:

To put this into prespective, I have to travel to Florida in October concerning work. However,  since I am an "essential" employee, I do not have to quarantine when I return to New York.

 

Makes sense, huh?

 

I don't think that's how it works.

[Beast]

12 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

I don't think that's how it works.

 

Umm, it's exactly how it works. I made sure because I wouldn't have agreed to go otherwise.

Edited September 14, 2020 by Beast

[Gugny]

Just now, Beast said:

 

Umm, it's exactly how it works. I made sure because I wouldn't have agreed to go.

 

My apologies.  I am also essential, but my company won't allow any travel to "bad states," without doing the 14-day quarantine when returning to New York.  I thought they were following the NYS rules/guidelines, but it seems that they're company guidelines.

 

Be well.