Has MLB shown a "non-bubble" plan is doomed for failure?

[Big Turk]

Honestly it is not looking good right now for how the NFL wants to do things.  Baseball has a major issue after a few games with games having to be cancelled and the Marlins with 14 players testing positive...they also admitted they knowingly played a game with 4 players that had tested positive...I mean how is this even possible that the MLB didn't know about those positive tests??

 

The NFL has far more players on each team than the MLB, granted they are not travelling as much but they are still doing the same thing, going in and out of places that may be hot spots at any given time...I just don't see how this is going to work the way they want it to...kind of similar how I don't see how these schools plans to reopen are going to work they way they want it to.

 

I can foresee at least one team having 15-20 positive tests within a few weeks of starting the season and a game or two has to be cancelled and then they have to re-evaluate their plans and may have to have an extended in-season shutdown to come up with a better plan, like going to multiple bubbles and having games played more evenly through Thursday-Sunday at the same facility or have only a few facilities hosting games...

 

I just don't see any way where we complete a season without serious issues and/or in season shutdowns with the current plan they are using.

[MAJBobby]

 

[Royale with Cheese]

I think the NFL does need to go to a bubble.

[Seasons1992]

5 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I think the NFL does need to go to a bubble.

 

Exactly why I said they need to start one month later this year. Bubble up in September and prepare for that all next month, and then start October. 

[Tisker A Tasker]

Somehow the Premier League was able to play without a bubble for nearly three months with only 20 positive tests. More contact in soccer than baseball as well.  Perhaps there is something they are doing right that the NFL can learn from.

 

Here's the data:

 

Round 1: 17-18 May - 748 tested, with six testing positive from three clubs.
Round 2: 19-22 May - 996 tested, with two testing positive from two clubs.
Round 3: 25-26 May - 1,008 tested, with four testing positive from two clubs.
Round 4: 28-29 May - 1,130 tested, with zero testing positive.
Round 5: 1-2 June - 1,197 tested, with one testing positive.
Round 6: 4-5 June - 1,195 tested, with zero testing positive.
Round 7: 8-9 June - 1,213 tested, with one testing positive.
Round 8: 11-12 June - 1,200 tested, with two testing positive from two clubs.
Round 9: 15-16 June - 1,541 tested, with one testing positive.
Round 10: 17-21 June - 1,829 tested, with one testing positive.
Round 11: 22-28 June - 2,250 tested, with one testing positive.
Round 12: 29 June-5 July - 1,973 tested, with zero testing positive.
Round 13: 6-12 July - 2,071 tested, with one testing positive.
Round 14: 13-19 July - 2,208 tested, with zero testing positive.

Round 15: 20-26 July - 1,574 tested, with zero testing positive.

Edited July 28, 2020 by Tisker A Tasker

[SCBills]

NFL definitely needs to bubble teams, and it's much more feasible than in MLB because the team can just stay on top of it during the week and they only travel once per week / play one team per week.

 

Also, what protocols are even in place for baseball players/coaches/staff, specifically when they leave the facilities?  I don't even know... I do know what the NFL has put in place.

 

 

Edited July 28, 2020 by SCBills

[Seasons1992]

9 minutes ago, Tisker A Tasker said:

Somehow the Premier League was able to play without a bubble for nearly two months with only 20 positive tests. More contact in soccer than baseball as well.  Perhaps there is something they are doing right that the NFL can learn from.

 

England has done vastly better than the US has.

[MAJBobby]

10 minutes ago, Tisker A Tasker said:

Somehow the Premier League was able to play without a bubble for nearly two months with only 20 positive tests. More contact in soccer than baseball as well.  Perhaps there is something they are doing right that the NFL can learn from.

Yeah the Nations there have had it under control.  So unless that occurs here Bubbling has proven effective for NBA thus far

[Big Turk]

13 minutes ago, Tisker A Tasker said:

Somehow the Premier League was able to play without a bubble for nearly two months with only 20 positive tests. More contact in soccer than baseball as well.  Perhaps there is something they are doing right that the NFL can learn from.

 

The UK reopened much better than most places here did while still controlling and continuing to lower case counts.  All hell broke loose in most places in the US while reopening.  New York showed how to do it properly and effectively but nobody bothered to pay attention.  So yes, they should have far fewer cases because there are far fewer places to catch it in the UK than in the US currently.

Edited July 28, 2020 by matter2003

[MAJBobby]

 

[Penfield45]

8 minutes ago, Tisker A Tasker said:

Somehow the Premier League was able to play without a bubble for nearly two months with only 20 positive tests. More contact in soccer than baseball as well.  Perhaps there is something they are doing right that the NFL can learn from.

 

that is because the PL had a proper plan and was monitoring their players throughout the entire break between March and June.  They were literally crafting meal plans every single day so players never had to leave their homes or eat food outside what was approved by the clubs. 

 

there is also far less players on an football team than any american football team. there is no way the NFL can test 300+ people per team every week and do contact tracing, football is not returning on time this season. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, Tisker A Tasker said:

Somehow the Premier League was able to play without a bubble for nearly two months with only 20 positive tests. More contact in soccer than baseball as well.  Perhaps there is something they are doing right that the NFL can learn from.

 

What was the community prevalence where they played?  It makes a difference........

Premier League, That's UK, right?  Though I'm a bit confused because I thought I read their season would start 12 September?

 

(Also this article makes it sound like it's pretty bubbled or at least restricted?)

[Tisker A Tasker]

1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

Yeah the Nations there have had it under control.  So unless that occurs here Bubbling has proven effective for NBA thus far

The bubble's worked well for MLS as well.  I'm just wondering if there's a way we can make football work without one.

[Penfield45]

Just now, MAJBobby said:

 

 

yes. the virus is about 4-6x more contagious than the seasonal flu. yet there are still people comparing it to the flu. 

 

this is why opening schools up will be an epic disaster, if schools open up communities will shatter and we can kiss sports goodbye in America until 2022 season 

[MAJBobby]

Just now, Tisker A Tasker said:

The bubble's worked well for MLS as well.  I'm just wondering if there's a way we can make football work without one.

Doesn't seem it.  The Sports that have Bubbled are controlling, the one that has not already postponing games again what three days after "opening day"

[DCOrange]

9 minutes ago, Tisker A Tasker said:

Somehow the Premier League was able to play without a bubble for nearly two months with only 20 positive tests. More contact in soccer than baseball as well.  Perhaps there is something they are doing right that the NFL can learn from.

That's because Covid is barely a thing in the UK right now. They've had 18,000 new cases in the past month. We have roughly 4 times that many per day.

[Big Turk]

3 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

 

I am still just floored by how they knowingly played a game with 4 players who tested positive and MLB either was OK with it or completely clueless that it happened.

[MAJBobby]

1 minute ago, Penfield45 said:

 

yes. the virus is about 4-6x more contagious than the seasonal flu. yet there are still people comparing it to the flu. 

 

this is why opening schools up will be an epic disaster, if schools open up communities will shatter and we can kiss sports goodbye in America until 2022 season 

 

Yep that is why my family is "bubbling" school with Virtual Option this year

[Tisker A Tasker]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

What was the community prevalence where they played?  It makes a difference........

Premier League, That's UK, right?  Though I'm a bit confused because I thought I read their season would start 12 September?

 

(Also this article makes it sound like it's pretty bubbled or at least restricted?)

 

That article's great.  Thank you for sharing it. I'd say what they are doing goes well beyond what baseball's done.

[DCOrange]

6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

What was the community prevalence where they played?  It makes a difference........

Premier League, That's UK, right?  Though I'm a bit confused because I thought I read their season would start 12 September?

 

(Also this article makes it sound like it's pretty bubbled or at least restricted?)

That's when the new season is expected to start. They just finished their season this past weekend.

[MJS]

8 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

The UK reopened much better than most places here did while still controlling and continuing to lower case counts.  All hell broke loose in most places in the US while reopening.  New York showed how to do it properly and effectively but nobody bothered to pay attention.  So yes, they should have far fewer cases because there are far fewer places to catch it in the UK than in the US currently.

Yeah, New York really showed us. Get more infected than anywhere on the planet. Amazing job, New York.

 

But they got the antibodies from it, so the disease ran its course.

[Big Turk]

13 minutes ago, Penfield45 said:

 

yes. the virus is about 4-6x more contagious than the seasonal flu. yet there are still people comparing it to the flu. 

 

this is why opening schools up will be an epic disaster, if schools open up communities will shatter and we can kiss sports goodbye in America until 2022 season 

 

It is just amazing to me how these schools come up with these elaborate plans but either willfully turn a blind eye to or don't really understand how many points of failure there are for them.  Everywhere you look there are points of failure in their plans...especially with school buses being a small enclosed place with poor ventilation and close proximity with lots of people that makes social distancing impossible.  

 

Then factor in how many kids are actually going to follow these rules and how many times a day the rules are going to be broken or forgot about, etc...it only takes 1 time for it to spread.  In addition kids 10 years and older have been found to spread it at the same rate as adults do, so anyone in 4th grade and above basically needs to take the utmost precautions and most of these kids at that age are not going to care or understand the seriousness.  Plenty of them will probably try and "be cool" by not following the rules, etc...

 

It's going to be an epic disaster and one I am not putting my kids through...they are staying home until there is no risk to them going back, if that means until they graduate highschool then so be it.

5 minutes ago, MJS said:

Yeah, New York really showed us. Get more infected than anywhere on the planet. Amazing job, New York.

 

But they got the antibodies from it, so the disease ran its course.

 

Yeah, that isn't even close to the truth but it's amazing what people ignorantly will believe in spite of the facts presented to them.  We controlled it here by strict adherence to guidelines set forth and no crying over wearing a mask in public. Antibodies at BEST last 2-3 months and are only present in a very small number of people so that point is pretty much false and/or irrelevant.

 

US Cases:

 

New York State Cases:

 

Edited July 28, 2020 by matter2003

[SCBills]

7 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

It is just amazing to me how these schools come up with these elaborate plans but either willfully turn a blind eye to or don't really understand how many points of failure there are for them.  Everywhere you look there are points of failure in their plans...especially with school buses being a small enclosed place with poor ventilation and close proximity with lots of people that makes social distancing impossible.  

 

Then factor in how many kids are actually going to follow these rules and how many times a day the rules are going to be broken or forgot about, etc...it only takes 1 time for it to spread.  In addition kids 10 years and older have been found to spread it at the same rate as adults do, so anyone in 4th grade and above basically needs to take the utmost precautions and most of these kids at that age are not going to care or understand the seriousness.  Plenty of them will probably try and "be cool" by not following the rules, etc...

 

It's going to be an epic disaster and one I am not putting my kids through...they are staying home until there is no risk to them going back, if that means until they graduate highschool then so be it.

 

Yeah, that isn't even close to the truth but it's amazing what people ignorantly will believe in spite of the facts presented to them.  We controlled it here by strict adherence to guidelines set forth and no crying over wearing a mask in public. Antibodies at BEST last 2-3 months and are only present in a very small number of people so that point is pretty much false and/or irrelevant.

 

Is there an eyeroll reaction we can use for those that keep repping NY's response to COVID?

 

I mean, congrats, NY hasn't yet reached to the re-opening levels in NYC of places that are seeing spikes, so I guess we'll see how this plays out if they ever do.   

 

That being said, how do you explain Cali?  They've mimicked NY's response with a far different outcome so far.    

 

 

Edited July 28, 2020 by SCBills

[Big Turk]

13 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

Is there an eyeroll reaction we can use for those that keep repping NY's response to COVID?

 

I mean, congrats, NY hasn't yet gotten to the re=opening levels of places that are seeing spikes so I guess we'll see how this plays out if they ever do.   That being said, how do you explain Cali?  They've mimicked NY's response with a far different outcome so far.    

 

 

 

You can eyeroll all you want. There is no way if you look at the graph I posted above that you keep levels that low and flat for 2 months without doing something right. In fact just the other day we had the lowest new case counts, hospitalizations and deaths in New York State since mid March.

 

 It all comes down to how much buy in the people here have towards doing things right and stricter guidelines...there are some things like gyms that still aren't reopened here in NY...malls still aren't open, etc..

 

We also opened in controlled phases divided into regions where each region had to meet 7 key metrics at each phase for 2 straight weeks before going to the next phase.  Each region also had to have a designated number of contact tracers prior to even starting phase 1 based on population.

 

I just don't think Cali had the buy in from the people nor the stricter phased guidelines, so like the other states some places were stricter and some were looser. Are gyms open there? Bars? Malls? 

 

In effect, most of these places were simply too aggressive and fast with their reopening efforts where New York was very cautious.  It turned out we were right and they were wrong.

 

And you people in other places eyerolling are the reason we can't go to Canada still. Get your ***** together.

Edited July 28, 2020 by matter2003

[Kirby Jackson]

I’ve been saying on here, FOR YEARS, that the NBA is the best run league. It isn’t all that close and never has been.

[Big Turk]

3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’ve been saying on here, FOR YEARS, that the NBA is the best run league. It isn’t all that close and never has been.

 

In terms of league size they SHOULD have the easiest time managing this...teams only have what, 12 players? Versus 26 for MLB, 23 for NHL and 55 for NFL

Edited July 28, 2020 by matter2003

[MJS]

6 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Yeah, that isn't even close to the truth but it's amazing what people ignorantly will believe in spite of the facts presented to them.  We controlled it here by strict adherence to guidelines set forth and no crying over wearing a mask in public. Antibodies at BEST last 2-3 months and are only present in a very small number of people so that point is pretty much false and/or irrelevant.

Really? You want the facts?

 

2nd highest case count in the US. BY FAR the most deaths. They are still 6th highest in active cases. 2nd highest in cases per 1 million population. 2nd highest in deaths per 1 million population. A death rate of 7.4%, one of the highest in the nation (there are states well below 1% even).

 

New York got ravaged and they botched things at every turn. They required tons of aid and were short PPE despite being warned years ago that they were short if a flu pandemic ever were to hit. Cuomo and De Blasio were wrong countless times and telling everyone they had things under control and they didn't. De Blasio told people to go see a movie in March.

 

What evidence do you have that New York had a proper response?

[Buffalo_Stampede]

5 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’ve been saying on here, FOR YEARS, that the NBA is the best run league. It isn’t all that close and never has been.

Because it's a star driven league. NBA owners have very little power. 

[MAJBobby]

5 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’ve been saying on here, FOR YEARS, that the NBA is the best run league. It isn’t all that close and never has been.

When you really look at your players as "Partners" and Not Employees you get thinking centered around making sound decisions for your Partners

[SCBills]

35 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

You can eyeroll all you want. There is no way if you look at the graph I posted above that you keep levels that low and flat for 2 months without doing something right. In fact just the other day we had the lowest new case counts, hospitalizations and deaths in New York State since mid March.

 

 It all comes down to how much buy in the people here have towards doing things right and stricter guidelines...there are some things like gyms that still aren't reopened here in NY...malls still aren't open, etc..

 

We also opened in controlled phases divided into regions where each region had to meet 7 key metrics at each phase for 2 straight weeks before going to the next phase.  

 

I just don't think Cali had the buy in from the people nor the stricter phased guidelines, so like the other states some places were stricter and some were looser. Are gyms open there? Bars? Malls? 

 

And you people in other places eyerolling are the reason we can't go to Canada still. Get your ***** together.

 

I don't think keeping things closed indefinitely is an acceptable response to a virus that is relatively harmless to the vast, vast majority of people.  

 

I do believe in wearing masks (and everywhere I go in hot-spot Atlanta, believe it or not,  people are wearing masks).   I do believe in social distancing.  I even believed in the limited lock down.  

 

That said, eventually you need to re-open, and when you do, this will likely reappear in NYC.  

 

America has a ton of densely populated cities and when you re-open densely populated areas with no vaccine, COVID spikes.   Masks help.  Distancing helps.  But the spikes will occur.  

 

We don't all subscribe to praising a state that is responsible for a majority of COVID death in this country, while bragging about it's current low case counts as it's businesses and restaurants go under.

 

 

Edited July 28, 2020 by SCBills

[Punching Bag]

29 minutes ago, Penfield45 said:

 

yes. the virus is about 4-6x more contagious than the seasonal flu. yet there are still people comparing it to the flu. 

 

this is why opening schools up will be an epic disaster, if schools open up communities will shatter and we can kiss sports goodbye in America until 2022 season 

 

In Fairfax County, 10th biggest school system in US, they decided for first quarter of 2020-2021 to go remote teaching despite reports it was a disaster mostly due to pressure from teachers' union.  In general Virginia is doing well for COVID but they have been proactive about it needing to take a hammer to some idiots.  Their definitions of "essential" for businesses however seemed to determined by state contracts like those with DOT.

[MJS]

16 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

Is there an eyeroll reaction we can use for those that keep repping NY's response to COVID?

 

I mean, congrats, NY hasn't yet reached to the re-opening levels in NYC of places that are seeing spikes, so I guess we'll see how this plays out if they ever do.   

 

That being said, how do you explain Cali?  They've mimicked NY's response with a far different outcome so far.    

Yeah, except California has done way better. They have more cases but only 8,500 deaths compared to New York's 32,700.

 

Nobody is going to seriously stop the spread. It's just not going to happen.

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, MJS said:

Really? You want the facts?

 

2nd highest case count in the US. BY FAR the most deaths. They are still 6th highest in active cases. 2nd highest in cases per 1 million population. 2nd highest in deaths per 1 million population. A death rate of 7.4%, one of the highest in the nation (there are states well below 1% even).

 

New York got ravaged and they botched things at every turn. They required tons of aid and were short PPE despite being warned years ago that they were short if a flu pandemic ever were to hit. Cuomo and De Blasio were wrong countless times and telling everyone they had things under control and they didn't. De Blasio told people to go see a movie in March.

 

What evidence do you have that New York had a proper response?

 

Yeah and let's also fail to mention that at the time this was all still new and nobody really knew how to handle it appropriately.  We sure as hell didn't have all of the knowledge to the secondary things that need to be looked for like blood clots, etc that kill people, and there were NO effective treatments at the time or antibodies to use for people.  No Remdesivir, dexamethasone or antibody treatments, so yeah common sense tells you more people should have died since they didn't know how to treat it and had nothing to combat it other than Oxygen and ventilators.  In large part BECAUSE of this, we now know about and have more treatments available.

 

Evidence? Look at the graphs above showing case counts for NYS and the US.  That's all the evidence you need.  2 months of low case counts and just recently the lowest new cases, hospitalizations and deaths all while other places are exploding. Because we did it right and are STILL doing it right.  Very few mask crybabies here, and if you find one you also will likely find someone ready to fight them for not having it on.

[Gugny]

29 minutes ago, MJS said:

Yeah, New York really showed us. Get more infected than anywhere on the planet. Amazing job, New York.

 

But they got the antibodies from it, so the disease ran its course.

 

Are you serious?  Really???

[Punching Bag]

28 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

Yeah, that isn't even close to the truth but it's amazing what people ignorantly will believe in spite of the facts presented to them.  We controlled it here by strict adherence to guidelines set forth and no crying over wearing a mask in public. 

 

 

Correction: Lots of crying, bitching (mostly at governor) and cursing in NY.

[MJS]

11 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

Yeah and let's also fail to mention that at the time this was all still new and nobody really knew how to handle it appropriately.  We sure as hell didn't have all of the knowledge to the secondary things that need to be looked for like blood clots, etc that kill people, and there were NO effective treatments at the time or antibodies to use for people.  No Remdesivir, dexamethasone or antibody treatments, so yeah common sense tells you more people should have died since they didn't know how to treat it and had nothing to combat it other than Oxygen and ventilators.  In large part BECAUSE of this, we now know about and have more treatments available.

 

Evidence? Look at the graphs above showing case counts for NYS and the US.  That's all the evidence you need.  2 months of low case counts and just recently the lowest new cases, hospitalizations and deaths all while other places are exploding. Because we did it right and are STILL doing it right.  Very few mask crybabies here, and if you find one you also will likely find someone ready to fight them for not having it on.

That's not evidence of a proper response. That's evidence of New York getting hit first and hard and the disease running its course.

 

You really think that New Yorkers are all just good boys and girls who listened and wore masks and were just better citizens than everyone else in the US? How pompous is that? There are cities and states that have taken it just as seriously if not more and haven't gotten hit nearly as hard. And California has done everything New York has done and been far more strict, if you ask me.

Edited July 28, 2020 by MJS

[billsfan89]

57 minutes ago, Tisker A Tasker said:

Somehow the Premier League was able to play without a bubble for nearly three months with only 20 positive tests. More contact in soccer than baseball as well.  Perhaps there is something they are doing right that the NFL can learn from.

 

Here's the data:

 

Round 1: 17-18 May - 748 tested, with six testing positive from three clubs.
Round 2: 19-22 May - 996 tested, with two testing positive from two clubs.
Round 3: 25-26 May - 1,008 tested, with four testing positive from two clubs.
Round 4: 28-29 May - 1,130 tested, with zero testing positive.
Round 5: 1-2 June - 1,197 tested, with one testing positive.
Round 6: 4-5 June - 1,195 tested, with zero testing positive.
Round 7: 8-9 June - 1,213 tested, with one testing positive.
Round 8: 11-12 June - 1,200 tested, with two testing positive from two clubs.
Round 9: 15-16 June - 1,541 tested, with one testing positive.
Round 10: 17-21 June - 1,829 tested, with one testing positive.
Round 11: 22-28 June - 2,250 tested, with one testing positive.
Round 12: 29 June-5 July - 1,973 tested, with zero testing positive.
Round 13: 6-12 July - 2,071 tested, with one testing positive.
Round 14: 13-19 July - 2,208 tested, with zero testing positive.

Round 15: 20-26 July - 1,574 tested, with zero testing positive.

 

The Premiere League plays in Europe where the virus is under control more so. That's a big difference.

[MJS]

10 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

Are you serious?  Really???

I am deadly serious.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Can't imagine the NFLPA agreeing to a bubble for six months.  If you compare the time of the NBA bubble, they arrived in Orlando 2 to 3 weeks ago, but Sept 11th will be down to 4 teams left.  That's about 3 weeks longer than NFL training camps will last and the amount of players on four NBA teams is less than one NFL roster.

 

The only players I could see going for it would be the last couple of players on to make the team.  On the Bills a guy like the DE Johnson going for it as if this season gets canceled, he'd basically be fighting two rookies classes for a roster spot.  Not good odds for a guy that low on the roster to begin with.

 

WRT to MLS, didn't two teams drop out?  So how successful was that?

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

The NFL could pull this thing off if they do these 6 things.

 

1. Buy a 5,000 acre island.

2.  Build 7 low end football stadiums cheaper than high school ones.

3. Build a few very nice apartment building to house teams, families and strippers.

4. There is one small Walmart and every other building is a restaurant, bar or strip club. There could be a bowling alley and a par 3  9 hole golf course but the players would have to pay for it.

5. Once you are tested safe to be on the island you cannot leave until the season is over.

6. There is a small police force and a small hospital.

 

If the NFL does this we might be able to watch football this year.