Beane/McDermott - finding value & talent to match needs?

[FlaFitz1]

First let me say I loved the Bills draft for the 4th consecutive year 

 

Have there been some hiccups?  Sure Zay Jones in the 2nd and Nathan Peterman 

 

However, trading back and getting Tre' at 27th? Drafting Dawkins as a LT at the end of the 2nd when many projected him and the NFL draft site still lists him as a guard.  How about Matt Milano a converted safety to play OLB in the 5th? 

 

Sure Allen and Edmunds were both 1st round picks but what about Phillips, Johnson and Neal in the 3rd, 4th and 5th respectively?  Weber State, Jacksonville State?  Are you kidding me!!!

 

We have just started to scratch the surface of 2019's class but Oliver and Ford are top line prospects that grew as the season went on.  I loved Singletary in the 3rd because I had the pleasure of watching him for 3 years at FAU and not only was 2017 magical because it seemed every time he touched the ball he scored but I also knew he was a better pass catcher than people were led to believe because of what he did his freshman year total catches wise and ypc his sophomore year.  Knox barely had a college career as a receiving TE but they found him also in the 3rd - Joesph, Johnson and Johnson we'll see about but all have great upside.  Sweeney?  Solid when his number has been called - not bad for the 7th.

 

That brings me to this year and looking at the value using the CBS Sportsline rankings.

 

First up Epenesa.  They had him ranked as the 34th overall and 4th DE.  They get him at 54 and as the 5th DE selected.   20 spots and 1 spot of value 

Third round pick Moss was ranked 82nd overall and 6 RB. They got him at 86th as the 9th RB selected.  4 spots and 3 spots of value

Their fourth round selection of Davis gave them the 119th overall and 20th ranked WR at 128th overall and as the 17th receiver off the board.   Plus 9 spots in value overall and minus 3 by position

Jake Fromm - the 167th selection and the 8th QB selected was ranked 123rd overall and as the 7th QB according to them.  A 44 spot value overall and 1 in the QB rankings

Tyler Bass was taken 188th but he was the 207th ranked player and the top kicker.   So on overall value they lost 19 spots but gained one by position.

Oregon State product Hodgins was ranked 129th overall and as the 23rd receiver.   They stole him at 207 and as the 30th pass catcher!!  78 spots overall and 7th in his group.

Finally we have Dane Jackson - the 239th selection and 25th CB selected.  The crew at CBS had him at 138th overall and the 18th ranked CB!!  101 spots later and 7 spots lower 

 

So what's this all mean?   Well looking at this draft the Bills took players that gave them a total of 256 spots worth of value overall not including Bass but including him 237 spots of value.  I don't think anyone could say they reached or didn't receive value.   Only Davis was ranked in his position group lower than where he was taken but he was still selected 9 spots after his overall ranking matching the value for the spot.

 

I went back and looked at the previous 3 drafts.  This is a theme.   They get more overall and positional value than their selection spots and don't reach 

[Brennan Huff]

Peterman and Jones were Whaley picks. But so were Dawkins and Milano. He was let go right after the draft 

Edited April 27, 2020 by Brennan Huff

[Ethan in Cleveland]

3 minutes ago, Brennan Huff said:

Peterman and Jones were Whaley picks. He was let go right after the draft 

Then Whaley gets credit for Tre and Dawkins too.

But you are correct Beane was still with Carolina for that draft

Edited April 27, 2020 by Ethan in Portland

[Brennan Huff]

Just now, Ethan in Portland said:

Then Whaley gets credit for Tre and Dawkins too

Correct. I edited my post 

[TigerJ]

It's true that Beane didn't reach for a single pick.  He got good value (Zack Moss?), great value (AJ Epenesa?) or ridiculous value (Jake Fromm State Farm?) in every single pick.  Some of that is luck at the way the draft fell, but Beane is so consistent in his selections that you have to say it's mostly a self discipline to stay with the philosophy/strategy.

[FlaFitz1]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Then Whaley gets credit for Tre and Dawkins too.

But you are correct Beane was still with Carolina for that draft

 

I understand Whaley was still in Buffalo but it's widely believed McDermott was the one to call in the shots especially because the draft ended Saturday night around 7pm and his firing was announced around 8:30 am the next morning.  

Edited April 27, 2020 by FlaFitz1

[shane nelson]

100% agree.  All of Beane's drafts have been excellent.  The building of this team reminds me so much of the Bills in the late 80's, just before our magical run as Polian picked gems through F/A, division 2 schools and smart drafts.  Let's now hope that we stay healthy like last year and keep this staff together.

 

Go Bills   

[thronethinker]

Buffalo is as complete a team as any other in the NFL right now. The Super Bowl is not a myth at this point, it is a possibility. Start by winning the division, which almost every critic will agree is Buffalos to be had. Get homefield and a bye, and Buffalo is in position to make it to Tampa. 

[Rockinon]

This is a nice thread topic.  Beane gets a lot for the money(draft capital). Amazing draft but how do you measure the value of the guys he picked up in free agency. The Diggs trade at first seemed expensive, but when you consider what he is (a proven #1 WR, in his prime, with 4 years left on his contract), maybe the price was still a steal. It should be noted that he is doing pretty damn good there too.  He's still not done either. There are still some roster spots to fill going forward.

[1ManRaid]

If you give a damn what PFF thinks they actually had Epenesa and Moss ranked even higher.  I think 21st overall and 2nd at position for Epenesa and don't remember overall for Moss but 2nd at position.

[BillsM@fia]

I like the drafts but as great is a player Tre is, I am not as ecstatic as you about the additional first round pick. We traded out of the pick and Chiefs landed Patrick Mahomes.  Sure, nobody knew what he would become but it still leaves a bitter taste in my mouth, additional first rounder or not.  (DeShaun Watson also available at #10)

 

Regarding the 2017 draft.  Yes, Whaley was GM at the time but if I recall, McDermott was given a lot of power.  Whaley and his scouting department may have put the board together, but I believe McDermott was ultimately making the final call. 

[Rockinon]

2 minutes ago, 1ManRaid said:

If you give a damn what PFF thinks they actually had Epenesa and Moss ranked even higher.  I think 21st overall and 2nd at position for Epenesa and don't remember overall for Moss but 2nd at position.

The theme for these draft picks is production. At nearly every position the collage production was there regardless of how highly they were ranked. Epenesa is not a speed pass rusher, but he is very good at winning his matchups with power instead.  Moss is similar to Singletary in a very important stat(yards after contact). Both are incredible in this stat. I wonder if that is what Beane was looking at.

3 minutes ago, BillsM@fia said:

I like the drafts but as great is a player Tre is, I am not as ecstatic as you about the additional first round pick. We traded out of the pick and Chiefs landed Patrick Mahomes.  Sure, nobody knew what he would become but it still leaves a bitter taste in my mouth, additional first rounder or not.  (DeShaun Watson also available at #10)

 

Regarding the 2017 draft.  Yes, Whaley was GM at the time but if I recall, McDermott was given a lot of power.  Whaley and his scouting department may have put the board together, but I believe McDermott was ultimately making the final call. 

Are we still crying over that?

[BillsM@fia]

11 minutes ago, thronethinker said:

Buffalo is as complete a team as any other in the NFL right now. The Super Bowl is not a myth at this point, it is a possibility. Start by winning the division, which almost every critic will agree is Buffalos to be had. Get homefield and a bye, and Buffalo is in position to make it to Tampa. 

 

Much more difficult to obtain a first round bye because of the new CBA.   Only one spot available, must win the conference.

1 minute ago, Rockinon said:

The theme for these draft picks is production. At nearly every position the collage production was there regardless of how highly they were ranked. Epenesa is not a speed pass rusher, but he is very good at winning his matchups with power instead.  Moss is similar to Singletary in a very important stat(yards after contact). Both are incredible in this stat. I wonder if that is what Beane was looking at.

 

I think McBeane is also looking at north/south runners.  McDermott does not want to turn the ball over and I bet he feels the same way about taking huge losses on running plays.  Moss is also the short yardage back we desperately need.  It seems our only option on 3rd/4th and short was QB keeper.  Swapping out Moss for Gore should extend drives and punch in a few more TDs,

[BillsM@fia]

11 minutes ago, Rockinon said:

Are we still crying over that?

 

I'm still crying about TJ Graham over Russel Wilson?.  When this thread is about praising the Bills past few drafts, not only passing on, but trading out of the spot of a generational talent at the most important position deserves some criticism. 

Edited April 27, 2020 by BillsM@fia

[Rockinon]

3 minutes ago, BillsM@fia said:

 

I'm still crying about TJ Graham over Russel Wilson?.  When this thread is about praising the Bills past few drafts, not only passing on, but trading out of the spot of a generational talent at the most important position deserves some criticism. 

We're trying to move forward now. Put on your sneakers and try to keep up.

[BillsM@fia]

1 minute ago, Rockinon said:

We're trying to move forward now. Put on your sneakers and try to keep up.

 

This thread is literally about their draft history.  Many users on this forum are as big of homers as One Bills Live.  God forbid you critique a team that hasnt won a playoff game in 25 years.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

45 minutes ago, FlaFitz1 said:

 

I understand Whaley was still in Buffalo but it's widely believed McDermott was the one call in the shots especially because the draft ended Saturday night around 7pm and his firing was announced around 8:30 am the next morning.  

I agree. Can't have it both ways though.  Cant blame Whaley for Zay and Peterman and credit McD for White. It was all McD including passing on Mahomes 

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

57 minutes ago, Brennan Huff said:

Peterman and Jones were Whaley picks. But so were Dawkins and Milano. He was let go right after the draft 

Whaley wasn't even in charge of picking up the donuts for the draft war room.  To give him any credit or blame for anything that happened in that draft is insanely wrong and misplaced.  

[FlaFitz1]

9 minutes ago, Rockinon said:

This is a nice thread topic.  Beane gets a lot for the money(draft capital). Amazing draft but how do you measure the value of the guys he picked up in free agency. The Diggs trade at first seemed expensive, but when you consider what he is (a proven #1 WR, in his prime, with 4 years left on his contract), maybe the price was still a steal. It should be noted that he is doing pretty damn good there too.  He's still not done either. There are still some roster spots to fill going forward.

 

I measure it a couple ways.

 

The first is they traded Wyatt Teller, who they drafted at 166 in the 5th, and a 2021 7th round pick to Cleveland.  In return they got the 155th and the 188th pick in this draft they used on Bass.  The day after trading Teller they traded Russell Bodine for a 6th round pick for the 207th pick (who they used on Hodgins).  That trade allowed them to send the 201st pick along with the 155th and their first round selection to Minnesota and still retain picks (Bass and Hodgins ) in the 5th and 6th rounds.  

 

The actual then turned out to be the 22nd, 155th and the 201st pick - a value of 820 points plus (assuming the Bills have a season at least equal to this past) a 4th next year which would be worth between 44 and 58 points making the total 864 to 878 points - less roughly 7 points for the 7th round pick they got in addition to Diggs.  So lets just call it 870 points traded which is worth roughly the 19th pick - depending on the chart could be 18th but most show 19th.  

 

In other words they gave up enough draft capital to move up 3 spots.  Options?  Arnette, Reagor, Chaisson, Jefferson plus obviously the others taken after 22.   Great value for a proven receiver who can run any route, catch contested balls and be a deep threat.  A Swiss army knife on the outside.

 

The other thing I look at is the league isn't going to have a regular off season by any means.   Now Beane has not only used that draft pick value on a proven commodity but also one that won't have a learning curve and won't be hurt as much going to a new team as rookie would be.   That - when the window for this team is now - is HUGE!!

 

I didn't even discuss having one of the top 5 WRs in the league with an average cap hit of under $12 million per year for the next for year which puts him 18th in the league.

 

Again - great value filling a need!!

 

 

[Brennan Huff]

22 minutes ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

Whaley wasn't even in charge of picking up the donuts for the draft war room.  To give him any credit or blame for anything that happened in that draft is insanely wrong and misplaced.  

So who gets the credit/blame?

[Gugny]

Picking Peterman wasn't a bad move by anyone.  He was a 5th rounder.

 

Naming Peterman the starter and only having a rookie backing him up ... that was a monumental eff up (which Beane has owned).

[Straight Hucklebuck]

1 hour ago, FlaFitz1 said:

 

I understand Whaley was still in Buffalo but it's widely believed McDermott was the one to call in the shots especially because the draft ended Saturday night around 7pm and his firing was announced around 8:30 am the next morning.  

But McDermott didn’t complete all 2017 Draft Scouting for the Bills in 4 months.

 

Whaley had a college staff and a pro personnel staff. 
 

The owner of the team said it didn’t make sense to relieve Whaley until after the draft because of the scouting effort. 

[Rampage]

1 hour ago, thronethinker said:

Buffalo is as complete a team as any other in the NFL right now. The Super Bowl is not a myth at this point, it is a possibility. Start by winning the division, which almost every critic will agree is Buffalos to be had. Get homefield and a bye, and Buffalo is in position to make it to Tampa. 

Exactly. Stout defense and running the football gets you to the big game. If Allen develops that's essentially the icing on the cake. You need that quarterback to win it all in the fourth quarter. We're 2/3's of the way there.

[FlaFitz1]

34 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

But McDermott didn’t complete all 2017 Draft Scouting for the Bills in 4 months.

 

Whaley had a college staff and a pro personnel staff. 
 

The owner of the team said it didn’t make sense to relieve Whaley until after the draft because of the scouting effort. 

 

That's true - they did the scouting and but it's believed McDermott ran the draft.

 

One theory, that runs in line with that is Whaley was fired hours after the draft concluded is that the decision had been made much earlier but Whaley was kept on board so he couldn't share his scouting reports and the Bills draft plans with another organization.

Edited April 27, 2020 by FlaFitz1

[Malazan]

1 hour ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

Whaley wasn't even in charge of picking up the donuts for the draft war room.  To give him any credit or blame for anything that happened in that draft is insanely wrong and misplaced.  

 

That is only sort of true...Whaley did all of the work for that draft. It's extremely likely he didn't make the picks, but the Bills board, the scouting work, everything except for picking the name off the board at the time of the selection was based on Whaley's work. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

13 minutes ago, jeremy2020 said:

That is only sort of true...Whaley did all of the work for that draft. It's extremely likely he didn't make the picks, but the Bills board, the scouting work, everything except for picking the name off the board at the time of the selection was based on Whaley's work. 

 

It's also unpopular, by Whaley was the GM for Hyde and Poyer. 

 

I get it, the Bills have made the Playoffs twice with McDermott, so we like McDermott, so he gets the credit. 

 

But I don't think it was McDermott completing the tape study to where his notes overrode the scouts. 

 

Of course Whaley was being phased out, but it was his group that did the bulk of the 2017 offseason work.

[Antonio]

1 hour ago, BillsM@fia said:

 

I'm still crying about TJ Graham over Russel Wilson?.  When this thread is about praising the Bills past few drafts, not only passing on, but trading out of the spot of a generational talent at the most important position deserves some criticism. 

 

You can say the same thing about the 9 other teams that pass on him and didn´t get a 1st rounder back. I don´t think a lot o people thought he was gonna be the next best QB, otherwise he would have gone 1st overall. 

 

For the record, I wanted Watson or Mahomes in that draft, but oh well!

[chris heff]

5 hours ago, FlaFitz1 said:

 

I understand Whaley was still in Buffalo but it's widely believed McDermott was the one to call in the shots especially because the draft ended Saturday night around 7pm and his firing was announced around 8:30 am the next morning.  

True, but was still Whaley’s staff.

[Don Otreply]

Beane knows how to fill scheme needs, and gets quality player that by and large don’t stress the salary budget. It’s money ball ish, and I like it. A hand full of great players and a whole bunch of good players. Beane knows what he is up to. 

 

Go Bills !!!

[RobbRiddick]

6 hours ago, thronethinker said:

Buffalo is as complete a team as any other in the NFL right now. The Super Bowl is not a myth at this point, it is a possibility. Start by winning the division, which almost every critic will agree is Buffalos to be had. Get homefield and a bye, and Buffalo is in position to make it to Tampa. 

Hmm, so it's the 55th super bowl, exactly 30 years after our first, it's in Tampa and the Bills are on the rise. 

 

No wonder they drafted a kicker, he better start practicing those 47 yarders

[Rockinon]

Is there a position on this team that doesn't have someone competing to take his job?

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

4 hours ago, Brennan Huff said:

So who gets the credit/blame?

Good question. Whaley was a dead man walking after the end of the season.  The scouting/personnel department did provide all of the input but McD was the main decision maker based on the information that was made available to him.  If you remember, the scouting/personnel department was basically cleaned out after the draft.  To answer your question, the scouting/personnel department was blamed for the bad moves and most of them lost their jobs.  McD was bullet proof being the new guy that just walked into the mess that was the Bills.  A friend of mine works in the NFL and knew a lot about what was going on at that time.  He also thought it was unusual to hire the head coach before getting a new GM.  I guess some of this disorganization falls clearly on ownership.  It's good that the Bills are past all of this and seem to be functioning very well.

[Buddo]

4 hours ago, Antonio said:

 

You can say the same thing about the 9 other teams that pass on him and didn´t get a 1st rounder back. I don´t think a lot o people thought he was gonna be the next best QB, otherwise he would have gone 1st overall. 

 

For the record, I wanted Watson or Mahomes in that draft, but oh well!

 

The problem with the Graham pick was that Nix actually liked Wilson, and intended to pick him in the next round.

 

Something similar happened with Cousins. Teams basically were picking QBs a round earlier than Nix was expecting them to go, and he kept missing out because of it.

 

As much as I like Allen, and I understand that when you are about to get a new GM, you want to let him pick his own QB, I still think that it was a mistake to not take either Mahomes or Watson - you simply shouldn't be passing up opportunities to take those levels of talent at the most important position, when you haven't got a genuine starting QB.

 

To me, it smacks of the same type of NFL idiocy that lets a new HC dismantle stuff that's working, just so he can install his own systems.

 

Anyway, onwards and upwards.

 

In respect of the OP, it does seem as though Beane manages to find a match of 'need' and value, on a regular basis.  Some of this, I think, is because their FA strategy appears to pretty much fill current holes prior to the draft, allowing them to go after who they want, even if it means moving up a few spots to take them.

 

I feel that became more obvious with the trade for Diggs. Before the trade, we had two main 'needs'. A genuine #1 WR, and another RB, to spell or backup, or whatever you want to call it. Beane realises he isn't guaranteed to get one of the top WRs in the draft, so does the trade for Diggs, knowing that somewhere, he can get another solid RB in this draft.

 

It also has to be said that strategically, making the trade makes sense from the standpoints of the contract, and also the current uncertain situation. There are a lot of picks that will struggle to make an impact due to the lack of a regular off-season, with the mini-camps etc. Veterans should be able to come in with the playbook down, and it just then becomes a familiarisation process, to ensure you are on the same page as your teammates.

 

Thankfully, RB is a position where rookies regularly come in and perform immediately.

[Augie]

I’m not spending time worrying about laying blame and pointing fingers for stuff that happened years ago. I love our FO and scouts, and I have faith in this regime. I can’t wait to see these new guys playing in Bills uniforms! 

[CaptnCoke11]

Can’t believe Beane drafted Mike Williams, Losman and Manuel.. What was he thinking