Buffalo Bills Fan Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 (edited) nevermind Edited May 11, 2020 by Buffalo Bills Fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 Funny how the scaredycats who warn that positive cases are still rising in some places, never cite the CO and GA statistics, who opened 2 weeks ago. Shouldn't they be spiking like mad by now? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, GG said: Funny how the scaredycats who warn that positive cases are still rising in some places, never cite the CO and GA statistics, who opened 2 weeks ago. Shouldn't they be spiking like mad by now? But there are still people saying that GA's spiking. When they are shown the numbers from the GDPH, literally, they shrug. Apparently, following data is very passe. But, if NPR has a story, well ... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, Taro T said: But there are still people saying that GA's spiking. When they are shown the numbers from the GDPH, literally, they shrug. Apparently, following data is very passe. But, if NPR has a story, well ... Especially if you take a deeper look into where the growth has been outside NYC, and it's still the latency of the related outbreaks in CT, NJ, MA and PA. Everywhere else it's relatively quiet. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foxx Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 good ol' sunshine for that Vitamin D. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoshin Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 2 hours ago, GG said: Funny how the scaredycats who warn that positive cases are still rising in some places, never cite the CO and GA statistics, who opened 2 weeks ago. Shouldn't they be spiking like mad by now? No. Exponential case growth wouldn’t work that quickly if it is going to catch. Two weeks would just be 1-2 rounds of expansion. If R0 is above 1.2 or so, you’d give it 4-6 weeks to declare things are going well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 1 hour ago, shoshin said: No. Exponential case growth wouldn’t work that quickly if it is going to catch. Two weeks would just be 1-2 rounds of expansion. If R0 is above 1.2 or so, you’d give it 4-6 weeks to declare things are going well. That would be the case in the initial outbreak, not something that's been festering for months. You wouldn't see a continual decline over the past 2 weeks. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoshin Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 (edited) 7 hours ago, GG said: That would be the case in the initial outbreak, not something that's been festering for months. You wouldn't see a continual decline over the past 2 weeks. Yes you might. The newly infected may only just be hitting the case count. I'm noting that only time will tell how well we are doing. So far Georgia looks like it's on a slight downtrend over the last month, which is good. Germany does a way better job than us on testing and measuring and they have seen their rate of transmission (not necessarily case counts remarkably yet) go up starting this week 3 weeks after opening. They are now on a razor's edge where their R0 is creeping to the danger zone. Use them as the model of reopening. Edited May 12, 2020 by shoshin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 Coronavirus Live Updates: Fauci to Warn of ‘Needless Suffering and Death’ if States Open Too Soon The United States’ top infectious disease expert plans to testify at a Senate hearing that moving too quickly to ease restrictions could undermine the country’s quest to return to normalcy. RIGHT NOW The New York Times will be providing live coverage of the Senate hearing at 10 a.m. Eastern. “The major message that I wish to convey to the Senate HLP committee tomorrow is the danger of trying to open the country prematurely,” he wrote. “If we skip over the checkpoints in the guidelines to ‘Open America Again,’ then we risk the danger of multiple outbreaks throughout the country. This will not only result in needless suffering and death, but would actually set us back on our quest to return to normal.” It is a message starkly at odds with the “things are looking up” argument that President Trump has been trying to put out: that states are ready to reopen and the pandemic is under control. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoshin Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Tiberius said: Coronavirus Live Updates: Fauci to Warn of ‘Needless Suffering and Death’ if States Open Too Soon The United States’ top infectious disease expert plans to testify at a Senate hearing that moving too quickly to ease restrictions could undermine the country’s quest to return to normalcy. RIGHT NOW The New York Times will be providing live coverage of the Senate hearing at 10 a.m. Eastern. I'm not sure it's needless. We cannot stay closed. Most states are ready for some reopening, albiet cautiously and with good distancing guidelines in place. I look at Philly, Boston, Chicago and obviously NYC and see a different situation calling for some stricter rules but most of the US doesn't need to be in lockdown anymore and should try to open up and see what's happening. GA is the test case at one extreme and lots of more rural NE areas are another, non-NE cities are another, and the NE cities are another. It's an experiment for sure. We don't know how it will go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 2 hours ago, shoshin said: Yes you might. The newly infected may only just be hitting the case count. I'm noting that only time will tell how well we are doing. So far Georgia looks like it's on a slight downtrend over the last month, which is good. Germany does a way better job than us on testing and measuring and they have seen their rate of transmission (not necessarily case counts remarkably yet) go up starting this week 3 weeks after opening. They are now on a razor's edge where their R0 is creeping to the danger zone. Use them as the model of reopening. Lazy journalism. Funny how Germany's numbers are trending now, and everyone is focusing on German health authorities sounding the alarm that estimated transmission rate is moving above R1.1. Of course that was the only thing picked from the German report, which is chockfull of data and has other statistics that contradict the worrisome trend that the virus is on the rebound. Little things like actual infection rates and hospitalizations, which continue to decline: My biggest problem with the R coefficient is that it's an estimate based on dubious data. How many times have all the models that were based on that mythical R -value needed to be revised, because they were woefully wrong? I'm not going to impugn the academics' motives, because they're trying their best given the information. But, we also have to recognize that their shading is always to the negative, because there's no penalty to them for erring on the downside. If you add their role in advising public policy, there's a true disincentive to be more optimistic in their modeling. That's why you continue to see a more negative slant from academia, despite what the actual numbers say. And the press eats it up, without truly examining the numbers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoshin Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 14 minutes ago, GG said: Lazy journalism. Funny how Germany's numbers are trending now, and everyone is focusing on German health authorities sounding the alarm that estimated transmission rate is moving above R1.1. Of course that was the only thing picked from the German report, which is chockfull of data and has other statistics that contradict the worrisome trend that the virus is on the rebound. Little things like actual infection rates and hospitalizations, which continue to decline: My biggest problem with the R coefficient is that it's an estimate based on dubious data. How many times have all the models that were based on that mythical R -value needed to be revised, because they were woefully wrong? I'm not going to impugn the academics' motives, because they're trying their best given the information. But, we also have to recognize that their shading is always to the negative, because there's no penalty to them for erring on the downside. If you add their role in advising public policy, there's a true disincentive to be more optimistic in their modeling. That's why you continue to see a more negative slant from academia, despite what the actual numbers say. And the press eats it up, without truly examining the numbers. Doom and gloom sells for sure. But look to Germany for a country doing a lot of testing and a pretty compliant reopening to see what we may see. Like Italy and Spain were good predictors of when we could expect to peak, Germany will be a decent measure of the optimistic end of what we can expect on reopening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orlando Tim Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 37 minutes ago, Tiberius said: Coronavirus Live Updates: Fauci to Warn of ‘Needless Suffering and Death’ if States Open Too Soon The United States’ top infectious disease expert plans to testify at a Senate hearing that moving too quickly to ease restrictions could undermine the country’s quest to return to normalcy. RIGHT NOW The New York Times will be providing live coverage of the Senate hearing at 10 a.m. Eastern. “The major message that I wish to convey to the Senate HLP committee tomorrow is the danger of trying to open the country prematurely,” he wrote. “If we skip over the checkpoints in the guidelines to ‘Open America Again,’ then we risk the danger of multiple outbreaks throughout the country. This will not only result in needless suffering and death, but would actually set us back on our quest to return to normal.” It is a message starkly at odds with the “things are looking up” argument that President Trump has been trying to put out: that states are ready to reopen and the pandemic is under control. Most of the country is ready to reopen. This past weekend I went a brewery and sat at a table without anyone helping me, I wiped it down ala Niles from Frasier, and I ordered my beers for me and my wife without coming within 5 feet of others except when I put my credit card in the machine. There is no reason most of the country outside the 5 largest cities can't open with some intelligent distancing. BTW I live in Orlando which is a top 25 city in America. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Man Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 WELL, YES: Quarantine Fatigue Is Real And Shaming People Won’t Help. #StayHome had its moment. The United States urgently needed to flatten the curve and buy time to scale up health-care capacity, testing, and contact tracing. But quarantine fatigue is real. I’m not talking about the people who are staging militaristic protests against the supposed coronavirus hoax. I’m talking about those who are experiencing the profound burden of extreme physical and social distancing. In addition to the economic hardship it causes, isolation can severely damage psychological well-being, especially for people who were already depressed or anxious before the crisis started. In a recent poll by the Kaiser Family Foundation, nearly half of Americans said that the coronavirus pandemic has harmed their mental health. . . . But the choice between staying home indefinitely and returning to business as usual now is a false one. Risk is not binary. And an all-or-nothing approach to disease prevention can have unintended consequences. Individuals may fixate on unlikely sources of contagion—the package in the mail, the runner or cyclist on the street—while undervaluing precautions, such as cloth masks, that are imperfect but helpful. Related: More Resistance in Michigan: Mayor of Perry Opens up the Town, Defying Gov. Whitmer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 58 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said: Most of the country is ready to reopen. This past weekend I went a brewery and sat at a table without anyone helping me, I wiped it down ala Niles from Frasier, and I ordered my beers for me and my wife without coming within 5 feet of others except when I put my credit card in the machine. There is no reason most of the country outside the 5 largest cities can't open with some intelligent distancing. BTW I live in Orlando which is a top 25 city in America. But what type of beer were you drinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whatnot78 Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 27 minutes ago, Tiberius said: But what type of beer were you drinking? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orlando Tim Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 36 minutes ago, Tiberius said: But what type of beer were you drinking? Wait is this a topic we can agree on?? We were sharing- so we had a hefeweizen, an Irish red, a quad, and a scotch ale in what was basically a large flight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 That's interesting about the pool testing for schools and colleges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 11 minutes ago, Tiberius said: That's interesting about the pool testing for schools and colleges. I may have missed that..what did hear on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 1 minute ago, plenzmd1 said: I may have missed that..what did hear on that? Sewage! They can check a campus sewage system to see if the virus is present Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Tiberius said: Sewage! They can check a campus sewage system to see if the virus is present True. Gross, but true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, Tiberius said: Sewage! They can check a campus sewage system to see if the virus is present We talked about that like 4 weeks ago, super effective to spot outbreaks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Man Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 40 minutes ago, B-Man said: Perhaps that could be a way to reframe the argument and recruit Democrat support ; By remaining locked down, we are favoring the protection of an older, more well to do, largely Caucasian population in expensive nursing homes while ignoring the working poor and the homeless. It’s an inequality ; it’s unfair. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Man Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said: Perhaps that could be a way to reframe the argument and recruit Democrat support ; By remaining locked down, we are favoring the protection of an older, more well to do, largely Caucasian population in expensive nursing homes while ignoring the working poor and the homeless. It’s an inequality ; it’s unfair. Well ...................that should make sense to democrats, but.....................................................................Orange Man Bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deranged Rhino Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 2 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warren Zevon Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 - DR in Mich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IDBillzFan Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 3 hours ago, Boatdrinks said: Perhaps that could be a way to reframe the argument and recruit Democrat support ; What evidence do you see that suggests the Democrats have ANY interest in a mutual plan to address the pandemic? I don't need another fake headbob from the left to know how little they care about this country and the people who love to call it home. These people legitimately told America to go eff itself for an entire week before finally agreeing to the CARES Act, which kept millions of people on payrolls. Between that and every other gang rape they'd done to Trump, Kavanaugh, etc., I would no sooner try to bridge that gap than get Joe Biden to complete a full sentence without puking tapioca all over his bib. They do not care about this country. They care about one thing and one thing only: power. Eff' em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 1 minute ago, IDBillzFan said: What evidence do you see that suggests the Democrats have ANY interest in a mutual plan to address the pandemic? I don't need another fake headbob from the left to know how little they care about this country and the people who love to call it home. These people legitimately told America to go eff itself for an entire week before finally agreeing to the CARES Act, which kept millions of people on payrolls. Between that and every other gang rape they'd done to Trump, Kavanaugh, etc., I would no sooner try to bridge that gap than get Joe Biden to complete a full sentence without puking tapioca all over his bib. They do not care about this country. They care about one thing and one thing only: power. Eff' em. Close...they care about CONTROL. You’ve seen that on full display during the pandemic. Power is the tool they use to get to their goal...which is, control! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted May 12, 2020 Author Share Posted May 12, 2020 4 hours ago, B-Man said: So what does Los Angeles do? They announce that they will be in lock down for another 3 months. 2 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said: It would funny if it weren't so sad. This is literally their position on this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Magox said: It would funny if it weren't so sad. This is literally their position on this. Shouldn't at least one of the hands in that cartoon, be a person of color! You can pick which one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted May 12, 2020 Author Share Posted May 12, 2020 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Magox said: Classic! We can go to the beach...but we have to keep moving. Wouldn't it make WAY MORE sense to lie on a towel, in one place, where you would contact WAY LESS people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chef Jim Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 25 minutes ago, Magox said: Are you ***** kidding me?!?! Why? What does this mean? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Chef Jim said: Are you ***** kidding me?!?! Why? What does this mean? It's LA County. We'll see if the surrounding 'working' counties follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chef Jim Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 Just now, SoCal Deek said: It's LA County. We'll see if the surrounding 'working' counties follow suit. We're already having people come back to work in my office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 Just now, Chef Jim said: We're already having people come back to work in my office. I thought you were in Orange County? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bockeye Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, Chef Jim said: Are you ***** kidding me?!?! Why? What does this mean? Keep kicking the can down the road until: a) A large majority of the population is dependent upon the government for their survival b) Mail in ballots are required for the presidential election c) Small businesses are wiped out and Capitalism is snuffed out for good and we can usher in the new age of socialism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo_Gal Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, Bockeye said: Keep kicking the can down the road until: a) A large majority of the population is dependent upon the government for their survival b) Mail in ballots are required for the presidential election c) Small businesses are wiped out and Capitalism is snuffed out for good and we can usher in the new age of socialism And don't forget about the part where the Feds bail them out to the tune of trillions! Well, at least that is what the west coast states are asking for. As far as California reopening, new guidance here. Looks like Stage 2. ?♂️ 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chef Jim Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 16 minutes ago, Bockeye said: Keep kicking the can down the road until: a) A large majority of the population is dependent upon the government for their survival b) Mail in ballots are required for the presidential election c) Small businesses are wiped out and Capitalism is snuffed out for good and we can usher in the new age of socialism I'm as cynical as the next guy but I'm thinking it's more of they just don't have the balls to make a decision. Hand wringing at it's finest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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