The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[Tiberius]

 

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

6 hours ago, Gene Frenkle said:

 

It's justification after the fact for Trump acting like it wasn't a big deal. Now you have his base trying to claim that the numbers are inflated like it's some political issue or something ######ed like that. What a joke. What an absolute disgusting disgrace. I almost can't believe what I'm reading here. It's like Trump wins if it's "not that bad". Now you have every nutjob in the country acting like a conspiracy theorist just so their daddy can be right and get re-elected. It's unbelievable. Way to show your true colors.

 

Hey deplorables, way to live up to the stereotype! Do you remember when he said that fifteen cases would soon be zero? Is that what this is all about? You're all a bunch of ***** losers with zero empathy for what's going on around you. Jesus ***** Christ on a cross. Arguing for inflated numbers is a new low. It's a conspiracy!!!. Piss the ***** off.

 

Triggered.

[SoCal Deek]

If everyone could take a breath and stop focusing on NYC for a second you’d see that HALF of the States had low single deaths yesterday, and many had NONE at all. This thing is clearly running it’s course. There’ll be a long debate about whether it was social distancing or warmer weather or just mutations of the virus, but that’ll be for the scientific community. 

[RaoulDuke79]

Thank you Tom Wolf you useless hack.

https://www.wgal.com/article/pennsylvania-house-passes-bill-that-could-reopen-some-businesses/32148233

[billsfan1959]

47 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

 

 

 

Ummm, you forgot to add one teeny, weeny, little caveat to this: The population of the United States is more than that of the next five countries, Spain, Italy, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom combined.

 

United States:                                        331 million people,  639,664 cases,  1932 cases per 1 million, 30,985 deaths,  93 deaths per 1 million

 

The next five countries combined:     321 Million people, 716, 822 cases,  2159 cases per 1 million, 74,591 deaths, 224 deaths per 1 million

 

I'm sure you weren't trying to paint a dishonest picture..

 

Edited April 16, 2020 by billsfan1959

[shoshin]

50 minutes ago, Troll Toll said:

If they refused to test these people while they were alive, why would they add them to the count? Not a good look for our health care system! Families of those should have a case for negligence if their dead family member was denied a test for COVID and now docs are making the determination that it was a COVID death.

Refused? You think these people were not tested because the health care system had tests and people to do the test but they just didn’t want to? What world are you living in? Doctors would love to test everyone they could. 

[SoCal Deek]

35 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

 

 

Take the NYC metro area out of that chart and the USA drops to 350,000 cases.

[GG]

51 minutes ago, Troll Toll said:

If they refused to test these people while they were alive, why would they add them to the count? Not a good look for our health care system! Families of those should have a case for negligence if their dead family member was denied a test for COVID and now docs are making the determination that it was a COVID death.

 

They weren't refused.  These are the people who never went to the hospital and died at home.  NY EMTs say that they're making many more calls like this than in a normal day before April.

[shoshin]

4 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Ummm, you forgot to add one teeny, weeny, little caveat to this: The population of the United States is more than that of the next five countries, Spain, Italy, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom combined.

 

United States:                                        331 million people,  639,664 cases,  1932 cases per 1 million, 70,671 deaths, 212 deaths per 1 million

 

The next five countries combined:     321 Million people, 716, 822 cases,  2159 cases per 1 million, 30,985 deaths,  93 deaths per 1 million

 

I'm sure you weren't trying to paint a dishonest picture..

 

Is twice as many deaths and still several weeks behind the growth curve some kind of victory? It’s not a competition but if it was, we would not be winning. 

2 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Take the NYC metro area out of that chart and the USA drops to 350,000 cases.

Take Lombardy out and ... NYC is America. 

[RaoulDuke79]

3 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Ummm, you forgot to add one teeny, weeny, little caveat to this: The population of the United States is more than that of the next five countries, Spain, Italy, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom combined.

 

United States:                                        331 million people,  639,664 cases,  1932 cases per 1 million, 70,671 deaths, 212 deaths per 1 million

 

The next five countries combined:     321 Million people, 716, 822 cases,  2159 cases per 1 million, 30,985 deaths,  93 deaths per 1 million

 

I'm sure you weren't trying to paint a dishonest picture..

 

It would also be nice to see the number tested vs. confirmed cases. I remember weeks ago when the gripe was we need more testing. We're doing more testing and the number of conformed cases is going up. Shocking. I'd venture to guess there are few poor countries with high numbers simply because they aren't testing. 

[SoCal Deek]

1 minute ago, shoshin said:

Refused? You think these people were not tested because the health care system had tests and people to do the test but they just didn’t want to? What world are you living in? Doctors would love to test everyone they could. 

Go ahead. Test everyone you want. But fast forward a week from now and you’re going to see the death count drop like a stone. Just look at the graphs of newly admitted patients. You better set your hair on fire now because this story will look far different on April 21st.

[GG]

2 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Take the NYC metro area out of that chart and the USA drops to 350,000 cases.

 

Here's a pictorial representation of which areas are mostly affected

 

[RaoulDuke79]

2 hours ago, shoshin said:

Re the above...

 

If we had adequate resources, you are right. But we don’t and didn’t in NYC especially.  Currently all we can hope for is consistency so this makes sense. 
 

And the symptoms of Covid are not to be easily confused with the flu. There is overlap but coroners can make an educated conclusion. 

So do we blame Cuomo for NYC's shortcomings or does it go directly to  Trump like everything else?

[SoCal Deek]

Just now, GG said:

 

Here's a pictorial representation of which areas are mostly affected

 

Thanks GG

I’ve recommended that everyone visit worldometer.com. The site updates daily and you can see all the important stats (cases, deaths, tests) by country and by state. It puts things in perspective. That is unless you just want to scream about the sky falling as many on here do. 

[GG]

4 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Go ahead. Test everyone you want. But fast forward a week from now and you’re going to see the death count drop like a stone. Just look at the graphs of newly admitted patients. You better set your hair on fire now because this story will look far different on April 21st.

 

New York finally hit a net negative for hospitalizations this week.

[SoCal Deek]

Just now, GG said:

 

New York finally hit a net negative for hospitalizations this week.

Bingo! But wait....there’ll be some new reason to blame President Trump....trust me. 

[Tiberius]

7 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Ummm, you forgot to add one teeny, weeny, little caveat to this: The population of the United States is more than that of the next five countries, Spain, Italy, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom combined.

 

United States:                                        331 million people,  639,664 cases,  1932 cases per 1 million, 74,591 deaths, 224 deaths per 1 million

 

The next five countries combined:     321 Million people, 716, 822 cases,  2159 cases per 1 million, 30,985 deaths,  93 deaths per 1 million

 

I'm sure you weren't trying to paint a dishonest picture..

 

Those death rates, gees 

 

 

[billsfan1959]

14 minutes ago, shoshin said:

Is twice as many deaths and still several weeks behind the growth curve some kind of victory? It’s not a competition but if it was, we would not be winning. 

 

We are not 3 weeks behind those five countries and I'm not claiming some sort of victory or anything at all. If people are going to present information, then be accurate.

 

Don't post a stat that the United States has more cases than any country in the world, without putting it in some kind of context to it, and then claim a complete failure on Trumps part - which is what he did.

 

BTW; We don't have twice as many deaths, I transposed the death numbers. Fixed it

Edited April 16, 2020 by billsfan1959

[GG]

1 minute ago, SoCal Deek said:

Thanks GG

I’ve recommended that everyone visit worldometer.com. The site updates daily and you can see all the important stats (cases, deaths, tests) by country and by state. It puts things in perspective. That is unless you just want to scream about the sky falling as many on here do. 

 

I use Avi's site as well, because he tracks the entire world.  

[BuffaloHokie13]

16 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Ummm, you forgot to add one teeny, weeny, little caveat to this: The population of the United States is more than that of the next five countries, Spain, Italy, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom combined.

 

United States:                                        331 million people,  639,664 cases,  1932 cases per 1 million, 74,591 deaths, 224 deaths per 1 million

 

The next five countries combined:     321 Million people, 716, 822 cases,  2159 cases per 1 million, 30,985 deaths,  93 deaths per 1 million

 

I'm sure you weren't trying to paint a dishonest picture..

 

74,591 US deaths? That's like triple the number I'm seeing.

 

Double checked, total US coronavirus deaths is currently 28,559. 

Edited April 16, 2020 by BuffaloHokie13

[billsfan1959]

1 minute ago, Tiberius said:

Those death rates, gees 

 

Thanks - posted them backward. Fixed it.

[Tiberius]

1 minute ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Thanks - posted them backward. Fixed it.

 

Ok, cool. And Good Morning  

[billsfan1959]

7 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

74,591 US deaths? That's like triple the number I'm seeing.

 

Double checked, total US coronavirus deaths is currently 28,559. 

 

Yep, Tibs pointed it out. I transposed the death numbers. (Current US death is 30, 985) 

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

United States:                                        331 million people,  639,664 cases,  1932 cases per 1 million, 30,985 deaths,  93 deaths per 1 million

 

The next five countries combined:     321 Million people, 716, 822 cases,  2159 cases per 1 million, 74,591 deaths, 224 deaths per 1 million

 

Edited April 16, 2020 by billsfan1959

[SoCal Deek]

California is at 19 deaths per million

New York is at 513 deaths per million

 

See any disparity there? The problem is not the same in all regions of the country. Not even close! 

[shoshin]

41 minutes ago, RaoulDuke79 said:

Thank you Tom Wolf you useless hack.

https://www.wgal.com/article/pennsylvania-house-passes-bill-that-could-reopen-some-businesses/32148233

Gov Wolf deserves a ton of credit for Pa’s low death count. I tried to find details of what the Senate passed but couldn’t. I’m for openings but it wasn’t clear to me how informed by science this bill was. 

21 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

We are not 3 weeks behind those five countries and I'm not claiming some sort of victory or anything at all. If people are going to present information, then be accurate.

 

Don't post a stat that the United States has more cases than any country in the world, without putting it in some kind of context to it, and then claim a complete failure on Trumps part - which is what he did.

 

BTW; We don't have twice as many deaths, I transposed the death numbers. Fixed it

Great fix and that’s awesome. We are behind Europe on when we will peak, so that’s what I mean. A better comparison is where Europe was 10-14 days ago vs Us now. I’m not caring about this comparison that much but if we are doing an academic exercise, that’s a better data point. 
 

I have rarely blamed a single politician for decisions made in this crisis. Could Trump have done better? Absolutely. And if he wasn’t such a narcissist, he could admit that. But he didn’t make any decision early on that others would have made all that differently. Monday Morning QBing this is a fair thing to do when we vote in November but I didn’t see anyone in politics in the US or Europe getting ahead of this thing and many of his biggest critics were in fact advising to do the exact wrong thing (China travel). 

Edited April 16, 2020 by shoshin

[shoshin]

15 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

California is at 19 deaths per million

New York is at 513 deaths per million

 

See any disparity there? The problem is not the same in all regions of the country. Not even close! 

And?

[Troll Toll]

36 minutes ago, shoshin said:

Refused? You think these people were not tested because the health care system had tests and people to do the test but they just didn’t want to? What world are you living in? Doctors would love to test everyone they could. 

I’ve heard that they’ve been turning away people that don’t appear to be “sick enough”. Are they following up on these people?

[Taro T]

13 minutes ago, shoshin said:

Gov Wolf deserves a ton of credit for Pa’s low death count. I tried to find details of what the Senate passed but couldn’t. I’m for openings but it wasn’t clear to me how informed by science this bill was. 

Great fix and that’s awesome. We are behind Europe on when we will peak, so that’s what I mean. A better comparison is where Europe was 10-14 days ago vs Us now. I’m not caring about this comparison that much but if we are doing an academic exercise, that’s a better data point. 
 

I have rarely blamed a single politician for decisions made in this crisis. Could Trump have done better? Absolutely. And if he wasn’t such a narcissist, he could admit that. But he didn’t make any decision early on that others would have made all that differently. Monday Morning QBing this is a fair thing to do when we vote in November but I didn’t see anyone in politics in the US or Europe getting ahead of this thing and many of his biggest critics were in fact advising to do the exact wrong thing (China travel). 

 

It's partially that and also the fact that the media are desperate to pounce on any mea culpa he might make.  No way he gives his enemies anything that would make them that ecstatic.

[Troll Toll]

39 minutes ago, GG said:

 

They weren't refused.  These are the people who never went to the hospital and died at home.  NY EMTs say that they're making many more calls like this than in a normal day before April.

Do we really know they never went?

[SoCal Deek]

6 minutes ago, shoshin said:

And?

And the point is the entire country is in a similar state of shut down over a virus that isn’t a national problem. Next time we have our seasonal wildfires in Southern California let’s see if Pennsylvania goes into lockdown.

[billsfan1959]

19 minutes ago, shoshin said:

Gov Wolf deserves a ton of credit for Pa’s low death count. I tried to find details of what the Senate passed but couldn’t. I’m for openings but it wasn’t clear to me how informed by science this bill was. 

Great fix and that’s awesome. We are behind Europe on when we will peak, so that’s what I mean. A better comparison is where Europe was 10-14 days ago vs Us now. I’m not caring about this comparison that much but if we are doing an academic exercise, that’s a better data point. 
 

I have rarely blamed a single politician for decisions made in this crisis. Could Trump have done better? Absolutely. And if he wasn’t such a narcissist, he could admit that. But he didn’t make any decision early on that others would have made all that differently. Monday Morning QBing this is a fair thing to do when we vote in November but I didn’t see anyone in politics in the US or Europe getting ahead of this thing and many of his biggest critics were in fact advising to do the exact wrong thing (China travel). 

 

Yeah, we are about 10-14 days behind.  Here's hoping we continue to do what we need to in order to keep the final numbers (particulary death) as low as possible.

 

Aslo, my comment about trying to assess blame wasn't directed at you. You have been a strong advocate for the positions you have taken, and you have been fair in your assessment of the response by the government.

 

Edited April 16, 2020 by billsfan1959

[GG]

6 minutes ago, Troll Toll said:

Do we really know they never went?

 

There's no definitive proof that they never went, but it's unlikely they did.   People are turned away from testing sites if they don't exhibit symptoms, but they're not turned away from hospitals.    Doctors are also advising patients to stay away from hospitals unless they absolutely have to go.   Lastly, demographics play a major role, and it's known than a large number of blacks & Hispanics don't trust the medical profession.  

 

This is the quote from the NYC health official in the Gothamist article that first flagged the issue

 

Quote

But another 200 city residents are now dying at home each day, compared to 20 to 25 such deaths before the pandemic, said Aja Worthy-Davis, a spokeswoman for the medical examiner’s office. 

 

[shoshin]

38 minutes ago, Troll Toll said:

I’ve heard that they’ve been turning away people that don’t appear to be “sick enough”. Are they following up on these people?

 

This is a lack or resources issue (kits and humans). And while the system is overwhelmed and most people recover well on their own, not testing everyone also keeps the general population healthier.

 

My neighbors just are getting over it (presumably) after 9 and 12 days of fever, muscle pain, etc (they were in NYC the days before the NBA/Tom Hanks night). Their primary care doc gave them advice for what to do and how to self-treat, as well as when it would be necessary for the hospital. 2 cases with a certainty of 99+% as Covid, not tested. Before that, another person I know tested positive, her family got it too. But only the mom was counted as a positive test because why drag the whole family out and use up kits and nurse time to do the testing (as well as risk exposing the nurses). This is happening all over the place. I've seen we're undercounting cases by as much as 10x in the news.

 

I have no idea what the real number of uncounted positive cases is and it's why I prefer counting deaths as a measure of progress, even with its flaws. You can't not count a body and at least a doctor saw it and made some informed Dx.   

 

36 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

And the point is the entire country is in a similar state of shut down over a virus that isn’t a national problem. Next time we have our seasonal wildfires in Southern California let’s see if Pennsylvania goes into lockdown.

 

If we have a national plan, we could re-open regionally as it made sense. 

 

And this is a national problem with NYC as its current epicenter but Florida and other states will get it bad when they are peaking in 3 weeks. Not NYC bad, but bad enough. Our shutdown helped contain it. Let's not make it a bigger problem by reopening in a random (state by state) fashion where we have a situation like what happened on the shutdowns where NYC is closed and Boston is open for 10 days. 

Edited April 16, 2020 by shoshin

[Justice]

1 hour ago, RaoulDuke79 said:

It would also be nice to see the number tested vs. confirmed cases. I remember weeks ago when the gripe was we need more testing. We're doing more testing and the number of conformed cases is going up. Shocking. I'd venture to guess there are few poor countries with high numbers simply because they aren't testing. 

Yeah but I could imagine the only people getting tested are those that have symptoms. Thankfully I feel great and have no need or urge to be tested

and I’m sure that goes for the rest of the world. I don’t have the numbers but I wonder what the percentage of positive tests are as opposed to negative. 

[shoshin]

2 minutes ago, Justice said:

Yeah but I could imagine the only people getting tested are those that have symptoms. Thankfully I feel great and have no need or urge to be tested

and I’m sure that goes for the rest of the world. I don’t have the numbers but I wonder what the percentage of positive tests are as opposed to negative. 

 

You can see total tests and total cases on the worldometers site. 

[Justice]

46 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

And the point is the entire country is in a similar state of shut down over a virus that isn’t a national problem. Next time we have our seasonal wildfires in Southern California let’s see if Pennsylvania goes into lockdown.

How much of that do you credit to the lockdown?

[jrober38]

53 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

And the point is the entire country is in a similar state of shut down over a virus that isn’t a national problem. Next time we have our seasonal wildfires in Southern California let’s see if Pennsylvania goes into lockdown.

 

Well, the belief is that without the shutdown it would be a national problem. 

 

That's literally why everything is shut down. To avoid it from being exponentially worse. 

[Doc]

1 hour ago, billsfan1959 said:

Ummm, you forgot to add one teeny, weeny, little caveat to this: The population of the United States is more than that of the next five countries, Spain, Italy, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom combined.

 

United States:                                        331 million people,  639,664 cases,  1932 cases per 1 million, 30,985 deaths,  93 deaths per 1 million

 

The next five countries combined:     321 Million people, 716, 822 cases,  2159 cases per 1 million, 74,591 deaths, 224 deaths per 1 million

 

I'm sure you weren't trying to paint a dishonest picture..

 

Meanwhile there were over 60M cases of H1N1.  But it was far less deadly.

 

1 hour ago, RaoulDuke79 said:

So do we blame Cuomo for NYC's shortcomings or does it go directly to  Trump like everything else?

 

Yes.  And also de Blasio.  In March they were telling people to go about with their business.

[Deranged Rhino]

14 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Well, the belief is that without the shutdown it would be a national problem. 

 

That's literally why everything is shut down. To avoid it from being exponentially worse. 

You’re no longer running around screaming about millions of Americans dying then? 

[IDBillzFan]

44 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Meanwhile there were over 60M cases of H1N1.  But it was far less deadly.

 

 

Yes.  And also de Blasio.  In March they were telling people to go about with their business.

 

That wasn't them. That was Trump. He told everyone to go out in public. He even recommended some movies to go see. He told them to visit Chinese restaurants and attend Mardis Gras and head to the beaches for Spring Break.

 

All this while de Blasio and Cuomo and Pelosi sounded the pandemic alarm.

 

(Editor's Note: Coming soon to a junior high history book in your neighborhood.)