The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[Foxx]

Just now, BuffaloHokie13 said:

We can take it a step further too. Let's assume that everyone tested was showing symptoms and only 20% of people show symptoms. That'd push the number to a whopping 0.5% of the population, and it would push the mortality rate down to 0.6%.

that can't be because those would be flu like numbers.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

2 hours ago, ALF said:

Joe Biden: Trump is worst possible leader to deal with coronavirus outbreak   Jan 27 ,  2020   USA Today

 

President has blithely tweeted that 'it will all work out well.' Yet the steps he has taken have only weakened our capacity to respond.

 

To be blunt, I am concerned that the Trump administration’s shortsighted policies have left us unprepared for a dangerous epidemic that will come sooner or later.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/01/27/coronavirus-donald-trump-made-us-less-prepared-joe-biden-column/4581710002/

 

So saith our resident "moderate independent."

 

[Buffalo_Gal]

1 hour ago, ALF said:

 

So there was no way possible to have lessened the pandemic in the US and disaster to the economy 

I think during the postmortem of this there will be a lot to  be learned.  The political tug-of-war afterward for "how to," funding, what went right, what went wrong, will make the last 3 years look like child's play. And, it will not just be politicians - lobbyists, scientists, medical doctors, R&D labs, pharmaceutical corporations, are all going to want a seat at the table. Money, money, money... public health concerns will be secondary. (I really hope I am wrong about the last, I doubt I am.)

 

[billsfan1959]

4 minutes ago, Foxx said:

that can't be because those would be flu like numbers.

 

 

[Warren Zevon]

7 minutes ago, Foxx said:

that can't be because those would be flu like numbers.

 

Just now, billsfan1959 said:

 

 

 

Nice to see you've both come full circle back to IT'S THE FLU DAMMIT 

[billsfan1959]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

I think during the postmortem of this there will be a lot to  be learned.  The political tug-of-war afterward for "how to," funding, what went right, what went wrong, will make the last 3 years look like child's play. And, it will not just be politicians - lobbyists, scientists, medical doctors, R&D labs, pharmaceutical corporations, are all going to want a seat at the table. Money, money, money... public health concerns will be secondary. (I really hope I am wrong about the last, I doubt I am.)

 

There are a lot of good things that could come out of this if everyone can find a way to just keep the politics to a minimum

 

I know, that's a tough thing to ask 

[Buffalo_Gal]

41 minutes ago, Chef Jim said:

I’ve found a great way to negotiate or to win over prospects is only ask questions you already know the answer to. 

Lawyer-ing 101. It also helps when you are in marketing and in business. ?

[Westside]

Liberals hate facts like vampires hate sunlight.

 

(No, I'm not talking about Nasty Pelosi)

[Magox]

2 minutes ago, Gary Busey said:

 

 

Nice to see you've both come full circle back to IT'S THE FLU DAMMIT 

 

 

I think there is enough data out there to understand that this is not like the flu.

 

However, here is what I believe that the final numbers will end up telling us.  

 

For those with no health afflictions under the age of 60, it will be about the same as the flu.

 

For those under the age of 19, it will be more benign than the flu.

 

For those with health afflictions under the age of 60, it will be slightly more deadly than the flu.

 

For those with health afflictions over the age of 60, it will be considerably more deadly than the flu.

 

For those with no health afflictions over the age of 60, it will be slightly more deadly than the flu.

 

I think when all is said and done, the overall mortality rate will be somewhere between .25%-.5%        

 

Aside from there being what I believe about a X 3 to X 5 higher mortality rate, what makes this disease especially insidious is the rate of contagion.   It seems to be highly contagious, which I think we will soon find out that many more people were infected that were asymptomatic than what was previously thought.  Which would lower the mortality rates.

 

I could be way off, but base off of everything that I have seen, the studies that I have looked at and the known infections etc, this is about where I think it will generally be.

[meazza]

4 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

 

I think there is enough data out there to understand that this is not like the flu.

 

However, here is what I believe that the final numbers will end up telling us.  

 

For those with no health afflictions under the age of 60, it will be about the same as the flu.

 

For those under the age of 19, it will be more benign than the flu.

 

For those with health afflictions under the age of 60, it will be slightly more deadly than the flu.

 

For those with health afflictions over the age of 60, it will be considerably more deadly than the flu.

 

For those with no health afflictions over the age of 60, it will be slightly more deadly than the flu.

 

I think when all is said and done, the overall mortality rate will be somewhere between .25%-.5%        

 

Aside from there being what I believe about a X 3 to X 5 higher mortality rate, what makes this disease especially insidious is the rate of contagion.   It seems to be highly contagious, which I think we will soon find out that many more people were infected that were asymptomatic than what was previously thought.  Which would lower the mortality rates.

 

I could be way off, but base off of everything that I have seen, the studies that I have looked at and the known infections etc, this is about where I think it will generally be.

 

Good post.  I keep hearing about seasonality but I have friends who have family in Brazil who are having a hard time fighting the virus and it's summer there.  I'm curious about Florida and how its doing in contrast to NYC.

Edited April 7, 2020 by meazza

[Foxx]

11 minutes ago, Gary Busey said:

 

 

Nice to see you've both come full circle back to IT'S THE FLU DAMMIT 

come on Gary, i think we both know that neither BF59 nor i said  that.

[Q-baby!]

21 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

After all this time and discussion you still don’t know how this virus works or spreads or where it came from...do you? It’s just way easier to be hysterical. It’s an odd way to look at your world, but you and my nutty sister in law would be great friends.

No hysteria here. You just don’t get to pick and choose stats to include. They are what they are. 

Edited April 7, 2020 by Q-baby!

[billsfan1959]

Just now, Magox said:

 

 

I think there is enough data out there to understand that this is not like the flu.

 

However, here is what I believe that the final numbers will end up telling us.  

 

For those with no health afflictions under the age of 60, it will be about the same as the flu.

 

For those under the age of 19, it will be more benign than the flu.

 

For those with health afflictions under the age of 60, it will be slightly more deadly than the flu.

 

For those with health afflictions over the age of 60, it will be considerably more deadly than the flu.

 

For those with no health afflictions over the age of 60, it will be slightly more deadly than the flu.

 

I think when all is said and done, the overall mortality rate will be somewhere between .25%-.5%        

 

Aside from there being what I believe about a X 3 to X 5 higher mortality rate, what makes this disease especially insidious is the rate of contagion.   It seems to be highly contagious, which I think we will soon find out that many more people were infected that were asymptomatic than what was previously thought.  Which would lower the mortality rates.

 

I could be way off, but base off of everything that I have seen, the studies that I have looked at and the known infections etc, this is about where I think it will generally be.

 

You are pretty spot on from everything I have read. It looks like the mortality rate will certainly be higher than the flu, but should still be under 1% - somewhere around .5 - .6 %. I think for this to not end up in second wave that equals this one, we need antibody tests available on a mass scale, advancements and availability of therapeutic drugs, and a smart way to phase into full employment.

[Tiberius]

1 hour ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Of course. Pretty in-depth answer there, Tiberius. Hope you didn't overwork yourself in formulating it.

No need to go any deeper, why waste words? 

[3rdnlng]

3 hours ago, ALF said:

Navarro memos warning of mass coronavirus death circulated in January

 

In late January, President Trump's economic adviser Peter Navarro warned his White House colleagues the novel coronavirus could take more than half a million American lives and cost close to $6 trillion, according to memos obtained by Axios.

 

Navarro's grim estimates are set out in two memos — one dated Jan. 29 and addressed to the National Security Council, the other dated Feb. 23 and addressed to the president. The NSC circulated both memos around the White House and multiple agencie

 

The "naivete, arrogance and ignorance" of White House advisers who disagreed with Navarro "put the country and the world in jeopardy," Bannon said, adding that Navarro was sidelined from the task force after the memo.

 

The Jan 29 memo set out two stark choices "Aggressive Containment versus No Containment."

 

Navarro compared cost estimates for the choices and wrote that the Council of Economic Advisers' estimates for stopping travel from China to the U.S. would be $2.9 billion per month. If the virus turned out to be a pandemic, that travel ban could extend 12 months and cost the U.S. $34.6 billion.

Doing nothing (the "No Containment" option) could range from "zero economic costs" to $5.7 trillion depending on the lethality of the virus.

On the high end, he estimated a scenario in which the coronavirus could kill 543,000 Americans.

 

https://www.axios.com/exclusive-navarro-deaths-coronavirus-memos-january-da3f08fb-dce1-4f69-89b5-ea048f8382a9.html

 

Wow , if only they took Peter Navarro serious back then

Seems like Trump took Navarro seriously enough to shut down travel to & from China 2 days later.

[billsfan1959]

Just now, Tiberius said:

No need to go any deeper, why waste words? 

 

A motto you should live by in the future. It would greatly reduce the mortality rate of the threads you participate in.

[Foxx]

19 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

 

I think there is enough data out there to understand that this is not like the flu.

 

However, here is what I believe that the final numbers will end up telling us.  

 

For those with no health afflictions under the age of 60, it will be about the same as the flu.

 

For those under the age of 19, it will be more benign than the flu.

 

For those with health afflictions under the age of 60, it will be slightly more deadly than the flu.

 

For those with health afflictions over the age of 60, it will be considerably more deadly than the flu.

 

For those with no health afflictions over the age of 60, it will be slightly more deadly than the flu.

 

I think when all is said and done, the overall mortality rate will be somewhere between .25%-.5%        

 

Aside from there being what I believe about a X 3 to X 5 higher mortality rate, what makes this disease especially insidious is the rate of contagion.   It seems to be highly contagious, which I think we will soon find out that many more people were infected that were asymptomatic than what was previously thought.  Which would lower the mortality rates.

 

I could be way off, but base off of everything that I have seen, the studies that I have looked at and the known infections etc, this is about where I think it will generally be.

to my way of thinkin', what makes this 'virus' insipid is the fact that there doesn't seem to be a basic pattern of affliction. from all appearances, it seems random, though more than likely it most certainly is not. what i mean by this is that you can take two identical people, same age, same demographic, same apparent health status and it will seemingly affect both differently. i'm sure there is a underlying (genetic) rhyme and reason for this but it will be sometime, if ever that we understand the correlation.

 

with this in mind, it very well could be that this virus was nothing more than a SARS- Corona mutation that somehow made a jump from bat to humans. however, also because of this, in my mind i simply can not rule out the possibility that it was bio-engineered.

Edited April 7, 2020 by Foxx

[Tiberius]

1 minute ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

A motto you should live by in the future. It would greatly reduce the mortality rate of the threads you participate in.

The mortality rate? 

[Magox]

7 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

Seems like Trump took Navarro seriously enough to shut down travel to & from China 2 days later.

 

 

That's not to be understated.  @ALF  If you are being reasonable about this, then you have to acknowledge that was a major move that saved lots of lives.

[Tiberius]

Just now, Magox said:

 

 

That's not to be understated.  @ALF  If you are being reasonable about this, then you have to acknowledge that was a major move that saved lots of lives.

He didn't shut down travel from China, that's not true 

[B-Man]

Lesson from coronavirus: Federalism works, not centralized government

by Tim Worstall

Original Article

 

 

 

 

This was just another dumb save the planet progressive idea.

 

Beware bug-breeding reusable grocery bags

 

Original Article

[Warren Zevon]

Has boy man missed a single story about grocery bags? Thanks for keeping us informed.

[3rdnlng]

1 hour ago, ALF said:

Trump spent the past 2 years slashing the government agencies responsible for handling the coronavirus outbreak

 

In 2018, for instance, the CDC cut 80% of its efforts to prevent global disease outbreaks because it was running out of money. Ultimately, the department went from working in 49 countries to just 10.

 

Here are some other actions the Trump administration undertook to dismantle government-spending programs related to fighting the spread of global diseases, according to Foreign Policy:

 

Shutting down the entire global-health-security unit of the National Security Council.

 

Eliminating the US government's $30 million Complex Crises Fund.

 

Reducing national health spending by $15 billion.

 

Consistently attacking Mark Green, the director of the US Agency for International Development.

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-cuts-programs-responsible-for-fighting-coronavirus-2020-2

Seriously Alph? Where have you been? The article you quote is from February 25, 2020 and the points it makes have been refuted time after time here. The NSC group having to do with the spread of disease was an Obama created redundant team. Simply put, Trump's team streamlined many of the NSC groups that had been created by Obama and made the NSC bloat to 400 people vs. 100 people previously. 

[Magox]

8 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

He didn't shut down travel from China, that's not true 

 

It barred anyone who had been in China over the previous 14 days, except U.S citizens.

 

You can downplay it all you want, but Dr. Fauci claimed that the China travel ban absolutely made a difference.

 

You can't pick and choose the facts you dislike.   Thankfully the candidate you wanted, Biden wasn't in charge or else we'd have been much worse off.

[Doc]

39 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

I think during the postmortem of this there will be a lot to  be learned.  The political tug-of-war afterward for "how to," funding, what went right, what went wrong, will make the last 3 years look like child's play. And, it will not just be politicians - lobbyists, scientists, medical doctors, R&D labs, pharmaceutical corporations, are all going to want a seat at the table. Money, money, money... public health concerns will be secondary. (I really hope I am wrong about the last, I doubt I am.)

 

Yeah like replenishing our stockpiles after a pandemic or not creating legislation that drives the production of medical products and medicine to other countries.  Then there needs to be a re-evaluation of the legitimacy of the WHO and never trusting China again.

 

37 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

 

 

Wait, so Colbert also mocked that NYT reporter?

[ALF]

9 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

 

That's not to be understated.  @ALF  If you are being reasonable about this, then you have to acknowledge that was a major move that saved lots of lives.

 

I give Trump credit for the China travel ban that saved many lives. Maybe he listened to Navarrow ,  but it spread here and cost the economy massive.

 

Fact Checker
Analysis
Trump’s claim that he imposed the first ‘China ban’

 

The New York Times calculated that at least 430,000 people arrived in the United States on direct flights from China since Jan. 1, including nearly 40,000 in the two months after Trump imposed restrictions. Moreover, screening proceedings of travelers from China have been uneven and inconsistent, the Times said.

 

In any case, the United States certainly was not the first country — by a long shot. We reviewed a list of country actions maintained by the Council on Foreign Relations and cross-checked with official announcements. Six countries imposed travel restrictions even before the World Health Organization declared a global health emergency on Jan. 30. Another six announced travel restrictions that same day, followed by 11 countries (besides the United States) announcing restrictions Jan. 31.

 

But most countries imposed the restrictions immediately. By the time Trump’s restrictions took effect Feb. 2, an additional 15 countries had taken similar actions

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/04/07/trumps-claim-that-he-imposed-first-china-ban/

[Doc]

2 minutes ago, Magox said:

It barred anyone who had been in China over the previous 14 days, except U.S citizens.

 

You can downplay it all you want, but Dr. Fauci claimed that the China travel ban absolutely made a difference.

 

You can't pick and choose the facts you dislike.   Thankfully the candidate you wanted, Biden wasn't in charge or else we'd have been much worse off.

 

Ignore Tibs.  It's his bag.  Sure it's got holes in it, but hey, it's his!

[3rdnlng]

7 minutes ago, Gary Busey said:

Has boy man missed a single story about grocery bags? Thanks for keeping us informed.

Don't worry Gary, I heard that if you get reusable grocery bags decorated with unicorns and rainbows the intensity of the "feelings" emanating from the bags themselves will kill any germs. 

[IDBillzFan]

1 hour ago, ALF said:

 

So there was no way possible to have lessened the pandemic in the US and disaster to the economy 

 

Once again, it is incredible to me that anyone could look at what is happening in the world right now and come to the conclusion that what the world really needs now is to point and blame.

 

Point and blame is the product of a lazy mind. Anyone can do it. As you so repeatedly show us.

 

[Doc]

2 minutes ago, ALF said:

I give Trump credit for the China travel ban that saved many lives. Maybe he listened to Navarrow ,  but it spread here and cost the economy massive.

 

Fact Checker
Analysis
Trump’s claim that he imposed the first ‘China ban’

 

The New York Times calculated that at least 430,000 people arrived in the United States on direct flights from China since Jan. 1, including nearly 40,000 in the two months after Trump imposed restrictions. Moreover, screening proceedings of travelers from China have been uneven and inconsistent, the Times said.

 

In any case, the United States certainly was not the first country — by a long shot. We reviewed a list of country actions maintained by the Council on Foreign Relations and cross-checked with official announcements. Six countries imposed travel restrictions even before the World Health Organization declared a global health emergency on Jan. 30. Another six announced travel restrictions that same day, followed by 11 countries (besides the United States) announcing restrictions Jan. 31.

 

But most countries imposed the restrictions immediately. By the time Trump’s restrictions took effect Feb. 2, an additional 15 countries had taken similar actions

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/04/07/trumps-claim-that-he-imposed-first-china-ban/

 

Yes it spread here because China lied about it for months, the WHO denied it could be spread P2P, and we have a free society.

[B-Man]

 

 

WHEN IS A CORONAVIRUS DEATH ACTUALLY A CORONAVIRUS DEATH? 

 

Good question, raised by Julie Kelly of American Greatness. 

 

The answers are about as clear as a gallon of Mississippi River mud flats water.

 

 

 

.

 

[IDBillzFan]

27 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

Seems like Trump took Navarro seriously enough to shut down travel to & from China 2 days later.

 

But other than that, he totally nailed it. 

[ALF]

Just now, IDBillzFan said:

 

Once again, it is incredible to me that anyone could look at what is happening in the world right now and come to the conclusion that what the world really needs now is to point and blame.

 

Point and blame is the product of a lazy mind. Anyone can do it. As you so repeatedly show us.

 

 

So it's ok not to have a adequate supply of PPE to protect healthcare workers and first responders. 

[GG]

1 minute ago, IDBillzFan said:

 

Once again, it is incredible to me that anyone could look at what is happening in the world right now and come to the conclusion that what the world really needs now is to point and blame.

 

Point and blame is the product of a lazy mind. Anyone can do it. As you so repeatedly show us.

 

 

Actually I will continue to point and blame China & WHO for downplaying the seriousness of the virus and not sharing enough information as early as possible.   February was a critical lost month where all Western health officials' assumptions were based on low human to human transmissability, thanks to China & WHO.

Just now, ALF said:

 

So it's ok not to have a adequate supply of PPE to protect healthcare workers and first responders. 

 

Where are the shortages?

[Doc]

1 minute ago, ALF said:

So it's ok not to have a adequate supply of PPE to protect healthcare workers and first responders. 

 

Ask Obama.  The H1N1 outbreak depleted them and they were never restocked.

[billsfan1959]

1 minute ago, Doc said:

 

Yes it spread here because China lied about it for months, the WHO denied it could be spread P2P, and we have a free society.

 

Right, most of those people came into the country before the Jan 31 restrictions. Forget the fact that, on Jan 23, the WHO was still reporting to the world that the outbreak did not yet constitute a public emergency of international concern and there was "no evidence" of the virus spreading between humans outside of China.....

[IDBillzFan]

2 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Yes it spread here because China lied about it for months, the WHO denied it could be spread P2P, and we have a free society.

 

Hey, knock it off with facts. Besides, don't you know that WHO is getting ready to sponsor a national coming together with Colbert and Fallon to make us all feel better?

[Buffalo_Gal]

2 minutes ago, ALF said:

 

I give Trump credit for the China travel ban that saved many lives. Maybe he listened to Navarrow ,  but it spread here and cost the economy massive.

 

Fact Checker
Analysis
Trump’s claim that he imposed the first ‘China ban’

 

The New York Times calculated that at least 430,000 people arrived in the United States on direct flights from China since Jan. 1, including nearly 40,000 in the two months after Trump imposed restrictions. Moreover, screening proceedings of travelers from China have been uneven and inconsistent, the Times said.

 

In any case, the United States certainly was not the first country — by a long shot. We reviewed a list of country actions maintained by the Council on Foreign Relations and cross-checked with official announcements. Six countries imposed travel restrictions even before the World Health Organization declared a global health emergency on Jan. 30. Another six announced travel restrictions that same day, followed by 11 countries (besides the United States) announcing restrictions Jan. 31.

 

But most countries imposed the restrictions immediately. By the time Trump’s restrictions took effect Feb. 2, an additional 15 countries had taken similar actions

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/04/07/trumps-claim-that-he-imposed-first-china-ban/

Nice title.

Apparently, the country that came before the US was the Marshall Islands.
 

</snip>
 

The earliest action was taken by Singapore on Jan. 23, canceling all flights from Wuhan, but the first country to impose a travel ban was the Marshall Islands on Jan. 24. It was tougher than the eventual U.S. action: No one could enter the country less than 14 days after visiting China, not even citizens.
 

</snip>

The article also says Italy and Australia banned travel from China the same day as the US, but what it does not say was it was after the US did it.


MARSHALL ISLANDS imposed an entry ban on anyone from China or who has transited through China, requiring that those individuals spend at least fourteen days in a country not affected by the coronavirus prior to arriving in the Marshall Islands, effective January 24

If accurate, this would be a great source for travel restrictions.

Everyone else followed the US travel ban (recall the gasp heard 'round the world?)



 

[Warren Zevon]

Just now, Doc said:

 

Ask Obama.  The H1N1 outbreak depleted them and they were never restocked.

 

Obama used the last roll of TP in the White House too. Has Trump been wiping his ass with his hand this whole time?

[3rdnlng]

4 minutes ago, ALF said:

 

I give Trump credit for the China travel ban that saved many lives. Maybe he listened to Navarrow ,  but it spread here and cost the economy massive.

 

Fact Checker
Analysis
Trump’s claim that he imposed the first ‘China ban’

 

The New York Times calculated that at least 430,000 people arrived in the United States on direct flights from China since Jan. 1, including nearly 40,000 in the two months after Trump imposed restrictions. Moreover, screening proceedings of travelers from China have been uneven and inconsistent, the Times said.

 

In any case, the United States certainly was not the first country — by a long shot. We reviewed a list of country actions maintained by the Council on Foreign Relations and cross-checked with official announcements. Six countries imposed travel restrictions even before the World Health Organization declared a global health emergency on Jan. 30. Another six announced travel restrictions that same day, followed by 11 countries (besides the United States) announcing restrictions Jan. 31.

 

But most countries imposed the restrictions immediately. By the time Trump’s restrictions took effect Feb. 2, an additional 15 countries had taken similar actions

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/04/07/trumps-claim-that-he-imposed-first-china-ban/

Alph, from the time we absolutely know that China was well aware that the coronavirus could be spread from people to people and the time that Trump shut down that travel, China allowed 20,000 people a day to travel to the U.S. That's about 600,000 people. During the time China was lying to the world they were stockpiling such things as masks, ventilators and other PPE's. Thisshit is on China!