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Hapless Bills Fan

QB who can pass to victory - a myth?

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There's a lot of talk about needing to find a QB who can win the game with his arm.

 

Now some would say I'm a football Australopithecine.  I love to watch a good defensive battle.  And I think nothing helps a young QB more than the knowldge his team can get a first down with their feet any time.  I think a balanced run-pass attack is critical for most QB's success.  But I'm told I should get with the era of Modern Football where passing must predominate.

 

Being a simple Hapless Fan, it occurred to me to ask a simple question:  What is the W-L outcome, actually, when a team's QB passes for most of the plays in a game?

 

I'll put the bottom line right up front here, then give you the details: 62% of the time, You Lose. 2% of the time, you Tie. 

 

Smoke That, Sports Fans: When the QB is slinging the rock a lot, almost 2/3 of the time your team ain't gonna win.

 

Now I know what some of you are probably thinking.  If I looked at most of the QB in the league, maybe that skewed the data.  The top passers win more, the bottom passers lose more.  But that isn't what I saw.  It was pretty consistent through ALL the QB.  Exceptions were Mr GOAT Tom Brady (7W, 1L).  Other exceptions who won 2x as much as they lost were Aaron Rodgers, Russ Wilson, Drew Brees.  Limited data on some positive newbies who won more than L but didn't have many high passing attempt games were Josh Allen, Jacoby Brisset, Mason Rudolph and Desean Watson.  Mahomes and LJax even split.

 

So, Cro Magnon Football Fans: the Australopithecine here wants to raise the question, is the QB who can carry the team to victory with a blistering passing attack a myth?  There seem to be about 4 of 'em in the league right now.

 

OK, here's what I done:

 

Criterion: The league average #plays per PFR is 63.  So I defined "most of the plays" as "more than half" and chose >= 55% of the ave. # of plays as my cutoff.  That is 35 or more passes per game. 

 

Method: I looked at the top 34 QB based on passing attempts as of Week 10, then excluded the best (Tom Brady, 7-1) and the worst (Andy Dalton, 0-8) [that's a common statistical practice, to prevent outliers from skewing the data set].  I used the QB game stats in Pro Football Reference, sorted by pass attempts, and tallyed W-L-T.  Total games were 105.

 

 

 

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We have one. His name is Josh Allen. The coaches have clipped his balls and won’t allow him to do too much though. It’s sad really...

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4 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

We have one. His name is Josh Allen. The coaches have clipped his balls and won’t allow him to do too much though. It’s sad really...

 

wasn't a good move to have Tyrod teach him the old

 

drop back

wait a microsecond

RUN FOR YOUR LIFE!

 

theory last offseason

 

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8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

There's a lot of talk about needing to find a QB who can win the game with his arm.

 

Now some would say I'm a football Australopithecine.  I love to watch a good defensive battle.  And I think nothing helps a young QB more than the knowldge his team can get a first down with their feet any time.  I think a balanced run-pass attack is critical for most QB's success.  But I'm told I should get with the era of Modern Football where passing must predominate.

 

Being a simple Hapless Fan, it occurred to me to ask a simple question:  What actually is the W-L outcome, actually, when a team's QB passes for most of the plays in a game?

 

I'll put the bottom line right up front here, then give you the details: 62% of the time, You Lose. 2% of the time, you Tie. 

 

Smoke That, Sports Fans: When the QB is slinging the rock, almost 2/3 of the time your team gonna lose.

 

Now I know what some of you are probably thinking.  If I looked at most of the QB in the league, maybe that skewed the data.  The top passers win more, the bottom passers lose more.  But that isn't what I saw.  It was pretty consistent through ALL the QB.  Exceptions were Mr GOAT Tom Brady (7W, 1L).  Other exceptions who won 2x as much as they lost were Aaron Rodgers, Russ Wilson, Drew Brees.  Limited data on some positive newbies who won more than L but didn't have many high passing attempt games were Josh Allen, Jacoby Brisset, and Mason Rudolph.  LJax split.

 

So, Cro Magnon Football Fans: the Australopithecine here wants to raise the question, is the QB who can carry the team to victory with a blistering passing attack a myth?  There seem to be about 4 of 'em in the league right now.

 

OK, here's what I done:

 

Criterion: The league average #plays per PFR is 63.  So I defined "most of the plays" as "more than half" and chose >= 55% of the ave. # of plays as my cutoff.  That is 35 or more passes per game. 

 

Method: I looked at the top 34 QB based on passing attempts as of Week 10, then excluded the best (Tom Brady, 7-1) and the worst (Andy Dalton, 0-8) [that's a common statistical practice, to prevent outliers from skewing the data set].  I used the QB game stats in Pro Football Reference, sorted by pass attempts, and tallyed W-L-T.  Total games were 105.

 

 

 

 

I have not yet read beyond the bolded point, but I seriously doubt many of us would say such a thing about you.  😋

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Good work! 

Now lets send this to McBeanoll

 

 

Edited by nedboy7

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9 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

We have one. His name is Josh Allen. The coaches have clipped his balls and won’t allow him to do too much though. It’s sad really...

 

Is that why he threw 41 passes, including multiple deep balls, while handing off 14 times against the 30th ranked run defense in the entire league. Please, do enlighten us. 

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9 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

I have not yet read beyond the bolded point, but I seriously doubt many of us would say such a thing about you.  😋

 

Believe me, I've been called far worse things around here! 

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13 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

Is that why he threw 41 passes, including multiple deep balls, while handing off 14 times against the 30th ranked run defense in the entire league. Please, do enlighten us. 


you mean a 30 ranked run defense that was playing cover 1 all game to stop the run?  

Edited by MAJBobby

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4 minutes ago, Chemical said:

You pass when you’re behind. End thread 

 

Down 3 TD’s in the second half? Or down more like, 3-6 points with plenty of time left in the game? 

 

Your “end thread” doesn’t even make sense. 

.

Edited by Augie
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Yep, good work and very interesting. It seems that the QB you describe is not a myth, but exists only in the rarified air that all fans want their QB to occupy. There are only a few of these around; some are near the end of their storied careers and a few notable others are off to a great start to take their place. If you win that QB lottery your team can be set for 10-15 years or more ( these days). When it doesn’t happen fans want to bang their fists on the table, calling for firings all around. It’s just a total crapshoot, and fans today only want to wait about a season and a half before moving on to another guy. So what to do ? A GM could probably draft a 1st round QB every year for 5 years and still not end up with one of your 4 truly elite guys. It’s notable that zero NFL teams do this. Fwiw the Bills are probably going to stick with Josh Allen until the end of the 2020 season, though many already want him gone. It appears all us fans can do is be patient, but if you’re waiting for that top 5 elite guy your favorite team might not ever get one. 

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What is a better game in terms of trying to get to points often?
 

a RB going for 120

 

or a QB going for 320

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23 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Now I know what some of you are probably thinking.  If I looked at most of the QB in the league, maybe that skewed the data.  The top passers win more, the bottom passers lose more.  But that isn't what I saw.  It was pretty consistent through ALL the QB.  Exceptions were Mr GOAT Tom Brady (7W, 1L).  Other exceptions who won 2x as much as they lost were Aaron Rodgers, Russ Wilson, Drew Brees.  Limited data on some positive newbies who won more than L but didn't have many high passing attempt games were Josh Allen, Jacoby Brisset, and Mason Rudolph.  LJax split.

Based on the bolded...

If you have a future HOF quarterback, then your odds of going deep into the playoffs are significantly better.

 

There are people on this forum who keep saying that backing into the playoffs is not the goal, winning the Super Bowl is the goal.  Those people are less likely to believe that Josh Allen is the guy. 

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1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

What is a better game in terms of trying to get to points often?
 

a RB going for 120

 

or a QB going for 320

 

The one that leads to more TDs?

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5 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:


you mean a 30 ranked run defense that was playing cover 1 all game to stop the run?  

Good teams can run the ball even when the defense is expecting it. 

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7 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:


you mean a 30 ranked run defense that was playing cover 1 all game to stop the run?  

 

Yep! Until they stop it! Do what works until they stop it. I don’t care of they “double dared you” I’m not in middle school, I’m trying to win football games and Singletary was averaging 5.2 ypc and the pass game was a mess. Inexcusable. Don’t let THEM dictate to US, WE dictate to THEM! THAT is winning football.

 

What do you do up 6 in the 4th with time running down? Get afraid of all the men in the box and pass? NOPE. You run your 4 minute drill and pound the rock. 

 

.

Edited by Augie

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Just now, Heitz said:

 

The one that leads to more TDs?


irrelevant in my point. Which would give you the opportunity to score more points. A RB going for 120 (good game by Running standards). Or a QB going for 320 (good yardage game by passing standards)

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2 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

What is a better game in terms of trying to get to points often?
 

a RB going for 120

 

or a QB going for 320

 

The one that lets you move the ball and score points?

 

You must know that's a false dichotomy.  No one is saying it should be all run.  But I found it very interesting that the results were so poor when the QB is passing the majority of the plays.

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Just now, Augie said:

 

Yep! Until they stop it! Do what works until they stop it. I don’t care of the “double dared you” I’m not in middle school, I’m trying to win football games and Singletary was averaging 5.2 ypc and the pass game was a mess. Inexcusable. Don’t let THEM dictate to US, WE dictate to THEM! THAT is winning football.

 

What do you do up 6 in the 4th with time running down? Get afraid of all the men in the box and pass? NOPE. You run your 4 minute drill and pound the rock. 


this is a McD coached team. We don’t dictate we react and keep it close. 

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Good research.  A balanced attack is the way to go.  You can pass to set up the run or you can run to set up the pass.   When you have to pass you can't just always check it down.  On the final drive last week the Bills threw 3 screen passes for 6 yards.  This going to happen more and more if you have a QB that can't complete a long pass.  Game on the line Browns covered John Brown 1 on 1.  Knowing Josh Allen wouldn't/couldn't hit him long.  

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Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The one that lets you move the ball and score points?

 

You must know that's a false dichotomy.  No one is saying it should be all run.  But I found it very interesting that the results were so poor when the QB is passing the majority of the plays.


so In a vaccum the way to score more points would be being able to go up the field more than 3 times vs being able to go up the field once. 

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1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:


this is a McD coached team. We don’t dictate we react and keep it close. 

 

No, nice try. YOU were just advocating we have to pass because it was c over 1. YOU can’t have it both ways. 

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now the Biggest Myth in football is you have to be able to run the ball for Play Action to be effective. 

Just now, Augie said:

 

No, nice try. YOU were just advocating we have to pass because it was c over 1. YOU can’t have it both ways. 


nope was saying that is what McD and Daboll do. The matchup says pass they pass. They don’t dictate they react. 

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36 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

There's a lot of talk about needing to find a QB who can win the game with his arm.

 

Now some would say I'm a football Australopithecine.  I love to watch a good defensive battle.  And I think nothing helps a young QB more than the knowldge his team can get a first down with their feet any time.  I think a balanced run-pass attack is critical for most QB's success.  But I'm told I should get with the era of Modern Football where passing must predominate.

 

Being a simple Hapless Fan, it occurred to me to ask a simple question:  What actually is the W-L outcome, actually, when a team's QB passes for most of the plays in a game?

 

I'll put the bottom line right up front here, then give you the details: 62% of the time, You Lose. 2% of the time, you Tie. 

 

Smoke That, Sports Fans: When the QB is slinging the rock a lot, almost 2/3 of the time your team ain't gonna win.

 

Now I know what some of you are probably thinking.  If I looked at most of the QB in the league, maybe that skewed the data.  The top passers win more, the bottom passers lose more.  But that isn't what I saw.  It was pretty consistent through ALL the QB.  Exceptions were Mr GOAT Tom Brady (7W, 1L).  Other exceptions who won 2x as much as they lost were Aaron Rodgers, Russ Wilson, Drew Brees.  Limited data on some positive newbies who won more than L but didn't have many high passing attempt games were Josh Allen, Jacoby Brisset, and Mason Rudolph.  LJax split.

 

So, Cro Magnon Football Fans: the Australopithecine here wants to raise the question, is the QB who can carry the team to victory with a blistering passing attack a myth?  There seem to be about 4 of 'em in the league right now.

 

OK, here's what I done:

 

Criterion: The league average #plays per PFR is 63.  So I defined "most of the plays" as "more than half" and chose >= 55% of the ave. # of plays as my cutoff.  That is 35 or more passes per game. 

 

Method: I looked at the top 34 QB based on passing attempts as of Week 10, then excluded the best (Tom Brady, 7-1) and the worst (Andy Dalton, 0-8) [that's a common statistical practice, to prevent outliers from skewing the data set].  I used the QB game stats in Pro Football Reference, sorted by pass attempts, and tallyed W-L-T.  Total games were 105.

 

 

 


If what you are getting at is that the Bills need to give Devin Singletary more carries and less passes for Josh, then I would agree

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Good analysis, Hap, but it would be helpful to look at situational play-calling too. Some of those passes were thrown when the team was trailing by two scores, while others were part of the typical run/pass balance. It would be interesting to see how those situations affected the W-L records.

 

Any statisticians out there want to run an ANOVA test on this? 😉

 

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