One important question I have on the last drive

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

Cover 0 means there's no safety help, yet I can only see 3 of the 4 DBs (assuming the corner at the bottom is on Brown). 

 

Where's the 4th DB if he's not providing safety help deep?

 

7 guys blitz, 2 on screen, one off screen covering Brown down the sideline. 

 

Where's the 11th man?

 

Right, I knew there is no way you misunderstood the play call.  Yeah, the 4th DB is off screen behind the other two. He starts deep, but on a cover-0 blitz the assumption is he will come down to get Beasley (or whoever his assignment is) in coverage.  It doesn't work out that way, hence the screen shot above, but that is the reason JA looks right.  Look, when the coverage says all your WRs are gonnna be 1-1, you go to your best WR. That is what Josh did.  I just wish they would have audibled to a more makable pass. 

2 minutes ago, TJC25 said:

Please stop with the notion our oc is telling him to throw a ball to a receiver not open if josh came back to the sideline and told daboll i saw soft coverage on the left and hit Beasley for 20 so that was my read. Qbs make there decisions pre snap my guy stop saying a oc is telling josh where to throw a ball bills fans blame a oc for inept qb play.

 

Please start using periods and commas. I literally have no idea what you are trying to say. 

[BillsFanSD]

Beasley might as well be triple-covered on that play.  Allen is looking at Brown and is about 1/2 second away from being sacked.  There is no possibility of looking across to the other side of the field, seeing Beasley, and getting him the ball.  It is Brown-or-bust on this play.

 

And honestly, having Brown one-on-one is a pretty good match-up.  I would have liked to have seen a higher-percentage play, but I don't hate this one.

[TJC25]

2 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

Right, I knew there is no way you misunderstood the play call.  Yeah, the 4th DB is off screen behind the other two. He starts deep, but on a cover-0 blitz the assumption is he will come down to get Beasley (or whoever his assignment is) in coverage.  It doesn't work out that way, hence the screen shot above, but that is the reason JA looks right.  Look, when the coverage says all your WRs are gonnna be 1-1, you go to your best WR. That is what Josh did.  I just wish they would have audibled to a more makable pass. 

 

Please start using periods and commas. I literally have no idea what you are trying to say. 

You are just making excuses for a bad play by the QB simple enough 

[Ramza86]

Miss...he made the read presnap and then the pressure got to him immediately. He stuck with the throw.

 

Obviously if he had just a little more time or experience he may have been able to wait or guess Beas would be open like that.

 

Im not too beat up about the decision to throw it, would have just wanted better placement 

 

 

[Solomon Grundy]

56 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Coming into this season we all wanted Josh to improve his completion percentage, which he has.  We wanted him to improve going through his progressions.  I think if you watch objectively he has.  But what he still needs to work on is his pre-snap reads.  I think that throw was a pre-snap read, and his read was that he had Brown one on one.  The read probably should have been Beasley, assuming he read the blitz coming from the left side.

 

Reading NFL defenses isn't easy, but Josh has to improve there.

He hasn't been able to read that blitz all season. Go back and watch previous games

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

2 minutes ago, TJC25 said:

You are just making excuses for a bad play by the QB simple enough 

 

Why do you hate your QB so much?

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

35 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

(D) Allen stated he saw cover 0 and was going to have a one on one match-up on Brown.  Brown in his post game interview said he “got tapped for a go ball “.  This tells me he and Allen had some sort of pre-snap communication.  The concept is if Brown beats his guy put it in front of him; if not throw a back shoulder behind the WR.  Allen threw back shoulder and supposedly Brown stated he misread the route meaning he wasn’t necessarily expecting the back shoulder.  If you rewatch the tape, the back shoulder pass was there, just miscommunication for an easy completion. Perhaps Allen should have known Beasley would be open, but his mind was made up upon reading the coverage and was trying to recreate the same magic he captured in the Jets game in my opinion,

 

No way of knowing whats going to happen pre-snap at the LOS.  9 guys lined up there and 3 to the left.  Blitz will most definitely come from the right.  Can't set pass pro, can't hard count.  If the blitzer on the left drops into coverage you lose the beasley play and you are trying to buy time - which he wouldn't have had.  

[jrober38]

7 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

Right, I knew there is no way you misunderstood the play call.  Yeah, the 4th DB is off screen behind the other two. He starts deep, but on a cover-0 blitz the assumption is he will come down to get Beasley (or whoever his assignment is) in coverage.  It doesn't work out that way, hence the screen shot above, but that is the reason JA looks right.  Look, when the coverage says all your WRs are gonnna be 1-1, you go to your best WR. That is what Josh did.  I just wish they would have audibled to a more makable pass. 

 

Please start using periods and commas. I literally have no idea what you are trying to say. 

 

I just rewatched the play 4 times.

 

In no way shape or form is it Cover 0. 

 

The Browns are in a hybrid shell. Man on the near side, zone in the middle and on the far side to keep everything in front.

 

Denzel Ward is manned up against John Brown in press man coverage. That's obvious. 

 

On the other side, the CB is 12 yards off the line of scrimmage in a soft zone. He's on his heels, and is no no way going to be playing man coverage. He's already back peddling as the ball is snapped. 

 

The safety is 15 yards off the line of scrimmage and shifts over towards Beasley a little bit, and probably gets to about 12 yards when the ball is snapped. Both he and the corner both appear to be be bailing deep, to not let anything behind them. 

 

There's a linebacker or safety in the middle of the field who checks our TE, but appears to also be in a zone, or possible spy in case Allen escapes the pocket.

 

It's a misread all the way by Allen. 

 

You need 4 yards, and the guys responsible for not letting Beasley get behind him is 12 yards off the line of scrimmage. Just brutal situational awareness to not take the easy check down.

Edited November 11, 2019 by jrober38

[Hebert19]

If he had time maybe he goes thru progressions but if he felt the pressure off the edge he had to go to primary there. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 minute ago, Ramza86 said:

Miss...he made the read presnap and then the pressure got to him immediately. He stuck with the throw.

 

Obviously if he had just a little more time or experience he may have been able to wait or guess Beas would be open like that.

 

Im not too beat up about the decision to throw it, would have just wanted better placement 

 

 

 

I like the placement, brown had almost half the field to work over there - he didn't look for the ball until it was too late.

[DRA3196]

If those are the options I have to roll with C and place an * next to it. Josh is not immature. He has been playing frustrated. He doesn't want to go for the 3 yard completion and the first down. He went for the kill shot and it failed. 

 

The one issue I have with the last drive was the confusion about huddle or no huddle. were we going for the tie or the win? hard to determine. I think this confusion led to instability and created a lack of confidence. Instead of knowing what they can do to succeed, they were hoping for something good to happen. Lack of preparation and execution killed our chances to score a TD.

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

2 minutes ago, Ramza86 said:

Miss...he made the read presnap and then the pressure got to him immediately. He stuck with the throw.

 

Obviously if he had just a little more time or experience he may have been able to wait or guess Beas would be open like that.

 

Im not too beat up about the decision to throw it, would have just wanted better placement 

 

 

 

If Brown turns around a half-second sooner, he catches that (according to Brown).

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, jrober38 said:

 

I just rewatched the play 4 times.

 

In no way shape or form is it Cover 0. 

 

The Browns are in a hybrid shell. 

 

Denzel Ward is manned up against John Brown in press man coverage.

 

On the other side, the CB is 12 yards off the line of scrimmage in a soft zone. He's on his heels, and is no no way going to be playing man coverage.

 

The safety is 15 yards off the line of scrimmage and shifts over towards Beasley a little bit, and probably gets to about 12 yards when the ball is snapped. Both he and the corner both appear to be be bailing deep, to not let anything behind them.

 

There's a linebacker or safety in the middle of the field who checks our TE, but appears to also be in a zone, or possible spy in case Allen escapes the pocket.

 

It's a misread all the way by Allen. 

 

You need 4 yards, and the guys responsible for not letting Beasley get behind him is 12 yards off the line of scrimmage. Just brutal situational awareness to not take the easy check down.

 

I see what you're saying but its hard to tell who's blitzing there - and if you guess wrong you could be screwed.  The fact that the clock was running (McD burning a timeout on D, and singletary not getting OOB) makes it worse because you just have to make a gut call.

[oldmanfan]

4 minutes ago, the skycap said:

He hasn't been able to read that blitz all season. Go back and watch previous games

Yes.  Which is why I said it's an area he has to improve upon.

[Solomon Grundy]

54 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

It was never a decision. It was cover-0, meaning he got one read.  He had Brown (his #1 WR) 1-1 on the outside running either a go or an option route, depending on whether he got a jump.  The ball was always going to Brown, and the read was always on the right. These snap shots do nothing to help explain what happened on the play.  

Cover 0, cover 2, man to man, no matter what defense is called if they send a blitzer don't you throw to that side of field?

[TJC25]

4 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

No way of knowing whats going to happen pre-snap at the LOS.  9 guys lined up there and 3 to the left.  Blitz will most definitely come from the right.  Can't set pass pro, can't hard count.  If the blitzer on the left drops into coverage you lose the beasley play and you are trying to buy time - which he wouldn't have had.  

The left side corner back moved up twice on the play showing he is rushing. It was a bad read by allen simple as that. The brown back shoulder was his throw no matter what the defense was in no awareness 

[Wayne Cubed]

The ball is going to Brown pre snap no matter what. This has been coached to JA, when you see Cover 0 and Brown, your #1 WR, is in tight man coverage, you throw the ball his way. If he beats his man you throw the ball over the top. If he doesn’t you throw back shoulder. 
 

The problem I have is they have run this play this season against Cover 0 and have had minimal success with it. Also, if you look at the bunch formation the secondary is playing off and you only need 4 yards, someone should be open on that sides. Why isn’t Josh being coached to read the defense a bit more. This is situational. While the Brown 1v1 is a nice look, it’s a low percentage play. And the bunch formation, just presnap, looks like a better look and higher percentage play seeing as you only need 4 yards.
 

Also, re:Dawkins, JA sets the protections. Dawkins immediately blocks down inside, as if that was the protection. To me that reads as JA didn’t think the CB was blitzing and set the protection as such. Also history tells us he has a tough time diagnosing the CB blitz.

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

4 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I just rewatched the play 4 times.

 

In no way shape or form is it Cover 0. 

 

The Browns are in a hybrid shell. Man on the near side, zone in the middle and on the far side to keep everything in front.

 

Denzel Ward is manned up against John Brown in press man coverage. That's obvious. 

 

On the other side, the CB is 12 yards off the line of scrimmage in a soft zone. He's on his heels, and is no no way going to be playing man coverage. He's already back peddling as the ball is snapped. 

 

The safety is 15 yards off the line of scrimmage and shifts over towards Beasley a little bit, and probably gets to about 12 yards when the ball is snapped. Both he and the corner both appear to be be bailing deep, to not let anything behind them. 

 

There's a linebacker or safety in the middle of the field who checks our TE, but appears to also be in a zone, or possible spy in case Allen escapes the pocket.

 

It's a misread all the way by Allen. 

 

You need 4 yards, and the guys responsible for not letting Beasley get behind him is 12 yards off the line of scrimmage. Just brutal situational awareness to not take the easy check down.

 

No, it is definitely cover 0. 3 route runners, 3 defenders, no deep help. That is text-book cover 0. 

 

The confusion is the corner back.  I honestly think he screwed up. Him backpedaling there makes zero sense and leaves Cole wide open, with the slot (Mackenzie) double covered. HOWEVER, reading the play from the beginning, it looks like it is going to be man coverage. JA cannot predict that the corner is going to inexplicably backpedal himself out of the play. 

11 minutes ago, TJC25 said:

You are just making excuses for a bad play by the QB simple enough 

 

Good comeback. You really got me. 

[JinxedBill]

1 hour ago, Steptide said:

Could be that Browns defender to Allen's left that's about to tackle him 

This. The pressure forced Allen to get rid of it quickly. Imo he did the right thing to chuck it for hopefully a big play with someone bearing down on him

[Wayne Cubed]

Just now, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

No, it is definitely cover 0. 3 route runners, 3 defenders, no deep help. That is text-book cover 0. 

 

The confusion is the corner back.  I honestly think he screwed up. Him backpedaling there makes zero sense and leaves Cole wide open, with the slot (Mackenzie) double covered. HOWEVER, reading the play from the beginning, it looks like it is going to be man coverage. JA cannot predict that the corner is going to inexplicably backpedal himself out of the play. 

Yup cover 0, means no safety help in the middle of the field. 0 players deep.

[jrober38]

5 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

I see what you're saying but its hard to tell who's blitzing there - and if you guess wrong you could be screwed.  The fact that the clock was running (McD burning a timeout on D, and singletary not getting OOB) makes it worse because you just have to make a gut call.

 

Sure.

 

That's why he should just look left, realize he needs 4 yards, and throw the 5 yard curl to the guy whose defender is playing 12 yards off the line of scrimmage.

 

Horrible awareness by Allen. 

 

Don't get me started on McDermott. That's the biggest play of the game. As soon as Singletary was tackled in bounds you call a timeout, put a plan in place and run the play that's going to get you 5 yards, then go clock it. If it's incomplete you kick the field goal. 

[ILBillsfan]

58 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

I agree with those suggesting that Dawkins whiffed block may have had a lot to do with this, but Josh still chose the lowest percentage / least open receiver on the field. I watched the post game presser and he proclaimed that he liked the one-on-one matchup with Brown down the field and that he had confidence that Brown could go get it. He did admit that it wasn't a good enough ball and didn't really give him a chance to do that.

 

While I am glad that Josh has confidence in his "#1 receiver", I just don't have that same confidence in Brown for back shoulder / jump ball type throws. It seems like we have built this receiving core for deep balls and timing routes, but we have a QB that just isn't very good at either of those. I truly hope he can improve and do it soon.

Go listen to Brown.  Cover zero look it was a back shoulder throw and Brown said he made the mistake.

 

So much more than than these snip it pictures.  This is the same play they score the TD in the Jets earlier this year.

 

Every week QB’s will miss wide open guys and every week some fan with a computer and no experience playing QB will say hey look he missed this 

[Thunderstruck]

6 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I just rewatched the play 4 times.

 

In no way shape or form is it Cover 0. 

 

The Browns are in a hybrid shell. Man on the near side, zone in the middle and on the far side to keep everything in front.

 

Denzel Ward is manned up against John Brown in press man coverage. That's obvious. 

 

On the other side, the CB is 12 yards off the line of scrimmage in a soft zone. He's on his heels, and is no no way going to be playing man coverage. He's already back peddling as the ball is snapped. 

 

The safety is 15 yards off the line of scrimmage and shifts over towards Beasley a little bit, and probably gets to about 12 yards when the ball is snapped. Both he and the corner both appear to be be bailing deep, to not let anything behind them. 

 

There's a linebacker or safety in the middle of the field who checks our TE, but appears to also be in a zone, or possible spy in case Allen escapes the pocket.

 

It's a misread all the way by Allen. 

 

You need 4 yards, and the guys responsible for not letting Beasley get behind him is 12 yards off the line of scrimmage. Just brutal situational awareness to not take the easy check down.

I'm not trying to be overly harsh on Allen- it sounds like there was some blame to go around on this play... But this is how I saw the play too.

 

So here is another question- If Dawkins kicks out and gets that block, would Allen have come back to Beasley? I guess we don't have a definitive answer for that.

[TJC25]

1 minute ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

No, it is definitely cover 0. 3 route runners, 3 defenders, no deep help. That is text-book cover 0. 

 

The confusion is the corner back.  I honestly think he screwed up. Him backpedaling there makes zero sense and leaves Cole wide open, with the slot (Mackenzie) double covered. HOWEVER, reading the play from the beginning, it looks like it is going to be man coverage. JA cannot predict that the corner is going to inexplicably backpedal himself out of the play. 

 

Good comeback. You really got me. 

Your in the mind set daboll is controlling allens arm and where he throws it and when so your opinion sucks tbh 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Have they even completed a single back shoulder throw all year? Seems like the timing has been way off on those. 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

Just now, TJC25 said:

Your in the mind set daboll is controlling allens arm and where he throws it and when so your opinion sucks tbh 

Grown ups are talking. Please don't interrupt. 

Just now, JR in Pittsburgh said:

Have they even completed a single back shoulder throw all year? Seems like the timing has been way off on those. 

That, the deep crosser, and the come back have been their bread and butter all year. 

[oldmanfan]

Just now, JR in Pittsburgh said:

Have they even completed a single back shoulder throw all year? Seems like the timing has been way off on those. 

Several

[ILBillsfan]

1 minute ago, JR in Pittsburgh said:

Have they even completed a single back shoulder throw all year? Seems like the timing has been way off on those. 

Yeah they have in fact it got them a TD vs the Jets

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

No, it is definitely cover 0. 3 route runners, 3 defenders, no deep help. That is text-book cover 0. 

 

The confusion is the corner back.  I honestly think he screwed up. Him backpedaling there makes zero sense and leaves Cole wide open, with the slot (Mackenzie) double covered. HOWEVER, reading the play from the beginning, it looks like it is going to be man coverage. JA cannot predict that the corner is going to inexplicably backpedal himself out of the play. 

 

Good comeback. You really got me. 

 

Hard to argue with someone who can't count to 4, ie the number of defenders in coverage.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

1 minute ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

Grown ups are talking. Please don't interrupt. 

That, the deep crosser, and the come back have been their bread and butter all year. 

 

Just now, oldmanfan said:

Several

 

haha— whoops. 

[Thunderstruck]

1 minute ago, ILBillsfan said:

Go listen to Brown.  Cover zero look it was a back shoulder throw and Brown said he made the mistake.

 

So much more than than these snip it pictures.  This is the same play they score the TD in the Jets earlier this year.

 

Every week QB’s will miss wide open guys and every week some fan with a computer and no experience playing QB will say hey look he missed this 

I think you are missing the overall picture here- I guess that makes you "some fan with a computer who has little experience posting who likes to criticize other posters".

 

So I ask again- do you believe that the downfield back shoulder throw is a high percentage throw? Do you believe we were safely in range of a tying field goal if we don't get that play? My answer to these two questions is "NO" and I didn't have to play QB to have an opinion on that.

[poblano]

Allen go to the easiest read, in the way  the defense shows blitz you can expect a 4 man rush and the other 3 players drop in short coverage, so Allen saw one on one outside with Brown and goes there 

Obviously a bad choice, but also forced to that for the situation, not only Dawkins blew the blitz, to other players get fast in the backfield.

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

2 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Hard to argue with someone who can't count to 4, ie the number of defenders in coverage.

 

Come on, its clear I'm only talking about the left side of the field...

2 minutes ago, JR in Pittsburgh said:

 

 

haha— whoops. 

We have all been there...

[wettlaufer]

1 hour ago, Thunderstruck said:

 

This play continues to bother me, because this is demonstrating a terrible pattern of behavior, either by our QB or our coaching staff (maybe both?)

 

 

 

He has a free rusher right on top of him. That was not a bad election given the play called and what was in front of him. But the play call was poor.

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

1 minute ago, wettlaufer said:

 

He has a free rusher right on top of him. That was not a bad election given the play called and what was in front of him. But the play call was poor.

 

Every one so focused on a an out of context screen grab. Its the play call people should be really pissed about.

[Scott7975]

I’m going to guess that Beasley was later in the progression tree and due to the pressure he didn’t get that far. Hopefully as he plays more he will get faster in his reads. Maybe he just liked the matchup he was shown presnap. Really the only people that know are the Buffalo Bills. Anyone here is just guessing. They may be right but it’s a guess none the less. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Thunderstruck said:

On this last attempt before the field goal- Beasley is clearly wide open at the stick and could easily get 10+ yards before getting out of bounds. This gives us time for a shot or two at the end zone (if they have faith to try that) and a much easier kick for the tie.

 

I would really like to know whether this is a case of

  a) Josh not seeing the open man

  b) The coaching staff having already pre-determined that the ball was going to be forced to Brown down the sideline

  c) An immature QB that knew Beas would be open there but decided to go for the glory anyway

  d) Other suggestions?

 

This play continues to bother me, because this is demonstrating a terrible pattern of behavior, either by our QB or our coaching staff (maybe both?)

 

 

 

What Aldo Raine said about the Cover0 and pre-snap decision on Brown

 

Cover1 has some workup on it.  The thought as I understand it is that Allen has been struggling against Cover0 where "they're coming, no time to read the field" so they cooked up some pre-defined "sight adjustments" to specific plays 

That would pretty much be b) I think, but it's an illogical choice for a hot read.  That should be your quick, 7-11 guy.   "Throw At the Blitz"   But maybe other teams were (logically) covering Beasley and leaving Brown open in that situation, or maybe that's what the Browns did earlier?  I dunno.  A "go" route is really too long developing for that

 

But on the other hand, if it worked, it could win the game.  I would just like a higher percentage throw to move the chains and get the tie there.

 

I wish our press would ask Daboll some fair, "I really would like an answer" questions about this.

 

Here's the Cover1 thing

 

 

 

3 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

I’m going to guess that Beasley was later in the progression tree and due to the pressure he didn’t get that far. Hopefully as he plays more he will get faster in his reads. Maybe he just liked the matchup he was shown presnap. Really the only people that know are the Buffalo Bills. Anyone here is just guessing. They may be right but it’s a guess none the less. 

 

It's Cover0.  "They're coming for you, get it out NOW".  There must BE no progression tree.

[jrober38]

6 minutes ago, wettlaufer said:

 

He has a free rusher right on top of him. That was not a bad election given the play called and what was in front of him. But the play call was poor.

 

The Browns are showing a sell out blitz.

 

If you need 4 yards for a first down, are you throwing the fade down the sideline against press man coverage, or the 5 yard button hook to the guy whose defender is leaning on his heels 12 yards off the line of scrimmage?

 

The answer should be an easy one, and our QB picked the wrong one. 

[Wayne Cubed]

1 minute ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

Every one so focused on a an out of context screen grab. Its the play call people should be really pissed about.

Hmm, disagree a bit there. The play design works to get Beasley open. And I get that Allen’s been coached that when he sees 1v1 on the outside vs Cover 0 with his number 1 receiver, the ball goes there. But it’s situational awareness and how far off the secondary is playing in the bunch formation. The LB has the TE drag route but the other 2 are so far off the ball  there is cushion there for a completion. The number 1 beater of Cover 0 is the long ball to the middle of the field. The Browns obviously are playing coverage so far off to not give that up that it looks like they are willing almost to give up a 1st down. 

[Capco]

Dunno if this was said yet, but a rule of thumb when being blitzed is "pass towards the blitz, run away from the blitz".  

 

Two extra rushers came from Allen's right, one extra came from Allen's left.  According to that rule of thumb in this situation, throwing to the right is usually better (since more potential coverage defenders have left that area to blitz the QB).  

 

Could be that Allen went with that rule of thumb, but that rule of thumb doesn't account for completely blown coverages on the other side of the field aka Beasley being open.