BuffaloHokie13 Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 (edited) Hey all! As some of you know, I like to track my own efficiency rating for QBs throughout the year. Now that we're through 4 weeks, here's how things have shook out. I only included QBs with 50+ attempts. What do you think? Anything stand out? Edited October 1, 2019 by BuffaloHokie13 Vlookup issues... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joevan Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 Jared Goff is horrible! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangarang Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 Lamar Jackson at 2 and 3 rookies ahead of Allen was surprising. Then again, I also didn’t expect Allen to be so low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted October 1, 2019 Author Share Posted October 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Bangarang said: Lamar Jackson at 2 and 3 rookies ahead of Allen was surprising. Then again, I also didn’t expect Allen to be so low. It's mostly due to his (Allen's) turnover % and yards per touch. The order tends to work better as the sample size grows. I suspect the turnovers will come down throughout the season, just as I suspect Lamar's TD% will come down as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangarang Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 1 minute ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: It's mostly due to his (Allen's) turnover % and yards per touch. The order tends to work better as the sample size grows. I suspect the turnovers will come down throughout the season, just as I suspect Lamar's TD% will come down as well. I don’t expect Lamar to continue his pace and throw 40 TDs this year. Not sure I can say the same about Allen and his turnovers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan17 Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 What about Allen makes anyone think the turnovers will come down? I dont have a doubt in my mind Allen is healthily over 20 INTs on the year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlbillsfan1975 Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 Mariota’s numbers remind me of Tyrod’s. I’m Probably way of base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LABILLBACKER Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 wow, Goff 4.27 YPA....Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted October 1, 2019 Author Share Posted October 1, 2019 (edited) 26 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said: wow, Goff 4.27 YPA....Yikes ? I missed a game. Thank you! Corrected image to follow! It was a vlookup error on my part. I double checked everyone's attempts, yards, tds, and ints for this go-around. Goff and Bridgewater seemed to get screwed up. My bad! Edited October 1, 2019 by BuffaloHokie13 Explanation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CincyBillsFan Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 It's not good to play QB for the Miami Dolphins. Also with a small sample size it hurts to have played the NE Pats. Serious question - do you factor in junk yardage? Jackson is very high on the list but the last two weeks he's thrown a couple of TD's and gained a lot of yardage AFTER the game was decided. Do you take that into consideration or is it just to subjective a parameter to assess? As an aside I like your system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticaclub Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 49 minutes ago, Bangarang said: Lamar Jackson at 2 and 3 rookies ahead of Allen was surprising. Then again, I also didn’t expect Allen to be so low. Really, I was actually expecting Allen to be lower 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CincyBillsFan Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 36 minutes ago, BillsFan17 said: What about Allen makes anyone think the turnovers will come down? I dont have a doubt in my mind Allen is healthily over 20 INTs on the year. Just like Favre in his 3rd year (19 TD's & 24 INT's)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Long Beach Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 2 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: Hey all! As some of you know, I like to track my own efficiency rating for QBs throughout the year. Now that we're through 4 weeks, here's how things have shook out. I only included QBs with 50+ attempts. What do you think? Anything stand out? Yeah, In a small sample size, the elite defenses tend to show up big. Buffalo: 24-Dalton 27 Eli (no Darnald) NE: 25 J Allen 33 Ruthlessburger 35 L Falk 36 Fitzpatrick I omitted Tom Brady at number 4 although it's clear how strong his stats are as we made him have a miserable game against us. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted October 1, 2019 Author Share Posted October 1, 2019 11 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said: It's not good to play QB for the Miami Dolphins. Also with a small sample size it hurts to have played the NE Pats. Serious question - do you factor in junk yardage? Jackson is very high on the list but the last two weeks he's thrown a couple of TD's and gained a lot of yardage AFTER the game was decided. Do you take that into consideration or is it just to subjective a parameter to assess? As an aside I like your system. Thanks! To your question, yes. It's all derived from the raw stats and I don't modify them. The final column, which is my part, is based on efficiency stats and not raw numbers, so between that and the fact that every QB has a bit of garbage time I just leave the numbers as is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 51 minutes ago, BillsFan17 said: What about Allen makes anyone think the turnovers will come down? I dont have a doubt in my mind Allen is healthily over 20 INTs on the year. Because he doesn’t appear to be a simpleton. He will probably realize that he has to stop the unforced errors or he will be out of the league in short order. Who knows, though? Maybe he’s a dunce. 48 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said: Mariota’s numbers remind me of Tyrod’s. I’m Probably way of base. You’re not. Watching Mariotta play reminds me of watching Tyrod at QB. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted October 1, 2019 Author Share Posted October 1, 2019 53 minutes ago, BillsFan17 said: What about Allen makes anyone think the turnovers will come down? I dont have a doubt in my mind Allen is healthily over 20 INTs on the year. I don't think he'll have Tyrod or Rodgers like turnover numbers, but week 1 had several unlucky breaks and those tend to even out over the course of a season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seven-N-Nine Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 56 minutes ago, BillsFan17 said: What about Allen makes anyone think the turnovers will come down? I dont have a doubt in my mind Allen is healthily over 20 INTs on the year. He's a turnover machine, I don't see that ever changing tbh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, Seven-N-Nine said: He's a turnover machine, I don't see that ever changing tbh. Pretty cool that you can see this. Tell me, who do you see as the next QB of the Bills , since Allen will play himself out of the league? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackOrton Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 2 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: Hey all! As some of you know, I like to track my own efficiency rating for QBs throughout the year. Now that we're through 4 weeks, here's how things have shook out. I only included QBs with 50+ attempts. What do you think? Anything stand out? I have to say, your ranking system almost always holds up to scrutiny. Well done as always. Has Dak been this high in the past? I feel like he’s been quietly efficient since his rookie campaign but he just gets crucified because he wasn’t “great” the year Zeke missed time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CincyBillsFan Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 18 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: Thanks! To your question, yes. It's all derived from the raw stats and I don't modify them. The final column, which is my part, is based on efficiency stats and not raw numbers, so between that and the fact that every QB has a bit of garbage time I just leave the numbers as is. Fair enough and in the end it should average out over 16 games. My sense is that Jackson is benefiting big time from that after 4 games. As an aside, QB's on good teams may not see as much garbage time yardage/TD's to pad their stats as QB's on teams that get blown out. But I can't see an easy way to incorporate this data without adding a potential bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 Have to check it out in more detail later but hands down the consistently best ranking system for QBs imo, cheers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Say When... Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 48 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said: wow, Goff 4.27 YPA....Yikes 2 hours ago, joevan said: Jared Goff is horrible! that can't be, how will the Pats*** D hang their hat on being an elite D in the SB last year??!?!?!? think of the children! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted October 1, 2019 Author Share Posted October 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said: I have to say, your ranking system almost always holds up to scrutiny. Well done as always. Has Dak been this high in the past? I feel like he’s been quietly efficient since his rookie campaign but he just gets crucified because he wasn’t “great” the year Zeke missed time. Thanks! And Dak is an enigma lol. Every year he starts out very high and slowly declines to middle of the pack. He finished 6th in 2016, 16th in 17, and 19th in 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 27 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: I don't think he'll have Tyrod or Rodgers like turnover numbers, but week 1 had several unlucky breaks and those tend to even out over the course of a season. They do? He has 22 TO in 16 games. You mentioned the bad luck in week 1. He also had 3 INT's in week 4. Doesn't feel like it is evening out 6 INTS and 6 Fumbles (2 lost) this year. 10 career games with 2 or more turn overs. Only 7 career games with 2+ TDs (Rush + Pass). This is a big one...Thrown more than one touchdown in a game twice in his career. Neither this year.... I am cool if he turns into Favre. He has a similar style, and some of the hero ball in him. He has to put up more points with his arm. I don't give a $h*t if he throws 2 INTS every game, but in 2019, you have to be able to toss more than 1.1 TD per game to go along with it. There have been great flashes that get me excited, but it has to stop being a play or two, or just a series at some point. 38 minutes ago, Seven-N-Nine said: He's a turnover machine, I don't see that ever changing tbh. This! I am actually fine with it, but if this is going to be the case, he needs to start putting up more yards and TD's with his arm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lagoon Blues Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 1 hour ago, CincyBillsFan said: Just like Favre in his 3rd year (19 TD's & 24 INT's)! This is the comparison that I always keep coming back to for Allen style wise. Who knows how it will end up shaking out in a couple years though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticaclub Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 31 minutes ago, Lagoon Blues said: This is the comparison that I always keep coming back to for Allen style wise. Who knows how it will end up shaking out in a couple years though. Rules favor the QB much more in 2019 than 1993, the best QBs threw as many TDs and they did INTs. We are still holding out hope Allen can clean up his game, 3 home games after the bye will be a huge test. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seven-N-Nine Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 3 hours ago, Mango said: This! I am actually fine with it, but if this is going to be the case, he needs to start putting up more yards and TD's with his arm. Right, he was supposed to be Favre-like. He has the stupid decision throws down pat, but not the scoring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trogdor Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 2 hours ago, uticaclub said: Rules favor the QB much more in 2019 than 1993, the best QBs threw as many TDs and they did INTs. We are still holding out hope Allen can clean up his game, 3 home games after the bye will be a huge test. I feel like this gets glossed over way too much, thank you. Also, I take it that this only tracks lost fumbles? Equally concerning with the run style of play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eanyills Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 (edited) 4 hours ago, Boatdrinks said: Pretty cool that you can see this. Tell me, who do you see as the next QB of the Bills , since Allen will play himself out of the league? I’m not sure why you’re being condescending towards an opinion that’s the opposite of the opinion that you’re giving. They’re both opinions. There’s plenty of tape on Josh, dating back to Wyoming, to suggest this is largely who he is. Maybe he cleans up his game a little, maybe he doesn’t. I don’t think he ever will, either. The question is can he continue to progress towards making great plays more consistently? The good might end up far outweighing the bad but someone suggesting he’s always going to be a gunslinger bordering on reckless isn’t absurd. Edited October 1, 2019 by eanyills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted October 1, 2019 Author Share Posted October 1, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, Trogdor said: I feel like this gets glossed over way too much, thank you. Also, I take it that this only tracks lost fumbles? Equally concerning with the run style of play. Correct. The ultimate goal there is TD/TO ratio and TO% (based on all touches), so I'm using fumbles lost since they are the turnovers. Edited October 1, 2019 by BuffaloHokie13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 7 hours ago, BillsFan17 said: What about Allen makes anyone think the turnovers will come down? I dont have a doubt in my mind Allen is healthily over 20 INTs on the year. I have seen Josh Allen throw the ball away this year......so there is that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 7 hours ago, Mark Long Beach said: Yeah, In a small sample size, the elite defenses tend to show up big. Buffalo: 24-Dalton 27 Eli (no Darnald) NE: 25 J Allen 33 Ruthlessburger 35 L Falk 36 Fitzpatrick I omitted Tom Brady at number 4 although it's clear how strong his stats are as we made him have a miserable game against us. I realize this was a quarter season mark, but have to wonder what the same rankings looked like after week 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted October 1, 2019 Author Share Posted October 1, 2019 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Augie said: I realize this was a quarter season mark, but have to wonder what the same rankings looked like after week 3. Josh Allen was 19 and Andy Dalton was 20. The others from that post were basically the same since Eli, Ben, Falk, and Fitz didn't play this week. Edited October 1, 2019 by BuffaloHokie13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 7 hours ago, eanyills said: I’m not sure why you’re being condescending towards an opinion that’s the opposite of the opinion that you’re giving. They’re both opinions. There’s plenty of tape on Josh, dating back to Wyoming, to suggest this is largely who he is. Maybe he cleans up his game a little, maybe he doesn’t. I don’t think he ever will, either. The question is can he continue to progress towards making great plays more consistently? The good might end up far outweighing the bad but someone suggesting he’s always going to be a gunslinger bordering on reckless isn’t absurd. What’s condescending about it ? The poster stated an absolute , they “ don’t see it changing “ . Since they can see the future so clearly, I want to know who the future Bills QB is. Curiously, they haven’t responded . You don’t know even what my opinion, is so Ill tell you. My opinion is that nobody knows, obviously including myself. I only know that JA doesn’t appear to be a moron, and probably will understand that lots of turnovers will lead to him being replaced. Also that players can improve especially in areas that are not caused by physical limitations. I don’t claim to be able to “ see” what will happen in the future, so don’t post in absolutes about what lies ahead. If he doesn’t improve , we do know that he will eventually be replaced because that’s how the NFL works. Lastly, when I see a post from someone with a negative “ handle”and a very low post count making extremely negative absolute statements I recognize them as a “ troll”. You may not have spent enough time on this board to spot them, judging from your own post count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSHMEAB Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 12 hours ago, Boatdrinks said: Because he doesn’t appear to be a simpleton. He will probably realize that he has to stop the unforced errors or he will be out of the league in short order. Who knows, though? Maybe he’s a dunce. Allen is definitely no dunce in terms of intelligence, but intelligence and football IQ are two entirely different things. He hasn't (of yet) demonstrated a great deal of football IQ. He makes up for many of his shortcomings with big plays and the ability to run, but that intelligence will need to translate to an improved football IQ if he's gonna get exponentially better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said: Allen is definitely no dunce in terms of intelligence, but intelligence and football IQ are two entirely different things. He hasn't (of yet) demonstrated a great deal of football IQ. He makes up for many of his shortcomings with big plays and the ability to run, but that intelligence will need to translate to an improved football IQ if he's gonna get exponentially better. Meaningless buzzword. This is simply realizing that if you continue giving the ball away by chucking it up for grabs , you lose your extremely high paying job playing a game. Call it “ football IQ” or whatever you want, but it’s a simple equation that only an idiot wouldn’t understand. Football IQ is code for “ dumb as a box of rocks, but has great athletic skills running around a field with a ball”. It reminds me of ex Bills D line coach Chuck Dickerson on his WGR radio show years ago. A caller stated that a certain Bills player was just too dumb to play. Dickerson interjected “ No, No, that’s not it! You cannot be too dumb to play football! It doesn’t exist! “. He was absolutely correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSHMEAB Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 39 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said: Meaningless buzzword. This is simply realizing that if you continue giving the ball away by chucking it up for grabs , you lose your extremely high paying job playing a game. Call it “ football IQ” or whatever you want, but it’s a simple equation that only an idiot wouldn’t understand. Football IQ is code for “ dumb as a box of rocks, but has great athletic skills running around a field with a ball”. It reminds me of ex Bills D line coach Chuck Dickerson on his WGR radio show years ago. A caller stated that a certain Bills player was just too dumb to play. Dickerson interjected “ No, No, that’s not it! You cannot be too dumb to play football! It doesn’t exist! “. He was absolutely correct. MMMMKAY. Josh Allen scored a 37 on his wonderlic so there is empirical evidence that he's a smart guy. Thus far, he has NOT consistently demonstrated the ability to adequately read through progressions and throw the ball at the correct time under the right circumstances. He's also demonstrated some poor situational awareness that would be considered "dumb." Not quite sure how one could not understand the term football IQ. As an aside, I hate the word and most words of this nature bandied about, but it has merit, especially at the QB position. Ryan Fitzpatrick is essentially a genius and I've seen him look like the dumbest human being alive on the football field. Dan Marino is pretty much an idiot, but he was an extremely smart QB independent his elite physical skill. It's not that complicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said: MMMMKAY. Josh Allen scored a 37 on his wonderlic so there is empirical evidence that he's a smart guy. Thus far, he has NOT consistently demonstrated the ability to adequately read through progressions and throw the ball at the correct time under the right circumstances. He's also demonstrated some poor situational awareness that would be considered "dumb." Not quite sure how one could not understand the term football IQ. As an aside, I hate the word and most words of this nature bandied about, but it has merit, especially at the QB position. Ryan Fitzpatrick is essentially a genius and I've seen him look like the dumbest human being alive on the football field. Dan Marino is pretty much an idiot, but he was an extremely smart QB independent his elite physical skill. It's not that complicated. Not making it complicated , mmmmmmkay? I obviously don’t think JA isn’t a smart guy. I also don’t share your crusade about his instincts or football IQ or whatever buzzword you want to use. If he wants to keep his job, he’ll stop the attempted heroics and realize they aren’t part of a winning style. If he doesn’t, he’ll be gone. I don’t have a burning need to be “ right “ about a player, unlike yourself. I’ll root for him , and if he fails I’ll root for the next guy. Using buzzwords and jargon in an effort to seem superior is lame -O Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSHMEAB Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said: Not making it complicated , mmmmmmkay? I obviously don’t think JA isn’t a smart guy. I also don’t share your crusade about his instincts or football IQ or whatever buzzword you want to use. If he wants to keep his job, he’ll stop the attempted heroics and realize they aren’t part of a winning style. If he doesn’t, he’ll be gone. I don’t have a burning need to be “ right “ about a player, unlike yourself. I’ll root for him , and if he fails I’ll root for the next guy. Using buzzwords and jargon in an effort to seem superior is lame -O You're making a lot of assumptions here, but that's cool. Enjoy your night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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