Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

[Jrb1979]

19 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Got it, see above

Please quit obsessing over this.  There is no statistical difference between his percentage last year and 60%, yet you treat it like it’s the Holy Grail.

No there isn't much difference between his percentage last year and 60%. If you look at the QBs who made the playoffsover the last few seasons, the lowest completion percentage was Rogers this year at 63%. Yes Allen was better this season but still not good enough to be the " franchise" as many of you call him. I understand a lot of you are afraid that if Allen isn't the answer of starting over again. 

[GoBills808]

42 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

The team had 31 drops. They dropped 7.3 percent of passes that weren’t spiked or thrown away. 
 

That’s absolutely atrocious.

 

If they were even average (5.5%) his completion percentage would rise to above 63%.

 

No offense, but posts like the above are why this discussion drags on and on.

 

If sub 60 isn’t acceptable, then get some WRs and TEs that catch the ***** ball.

And then factor in how dependent stats like passer rating and the like are upon comp%

 

This is why I can safely disregard people who harp on statistics because they don't seem to understand the simple facts of what you posted. I have written these exact words several times.

 

It's also why when Booger McFarlane and Joe Tessitore are in the booth and seeing Allen play for what I have to imagine is the first time vs the Texans they sound incredulous that he isn't falling to pieces...because they don't watch Bills games and are viewing him based purely on statistics that were influenced to an outsized degree on the offensive talent around him. 

 

The point being as per usual: if you don't understand statistical analysis or how certain 'ratings' are calculated you are going to have a very hard time grading Allen last season.

[Mango]

36 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Got it, see above

Please quit obsessing over this.  There is no statistical difference between his percentage last year and 60%, yet you treat it like it’s the Holy Grail.

 

But I think there is a difference between him and his peers. 

 

I think what @C.Biscuit97 is eluding to, is that it seems to be a pattern of Josh's to trend on the low end of this metric over his career. Not necessarily that 60% is the absolute marker. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

6 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

If you look at the QBs who made the playoffsover the last few seasons, the lowest completion percentage was Rogers this year at 63%.

Can you expand on this? At its face it seems completely false, so I'd like to know exactly what you intended as criteria. 

 

Brady was 60.8% this year, for instance. Rodgers was 62%. Wentz was 60.2% a couple years ago before getting hurt. Cam was 59.8% his MVP season. 

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Can you expand on this? At its face it seems completely false, so I'd like to know exactly what you intended as criteria. 

 

Brady was 60.8% this year, for instance. Rodgers was 62%. Wentz was 60.2% a couple years ago before getting hurt. Cam was 59.8% his MVP season. 

Not to mention, um, Allen this year lmao

[oldmanfan]

6 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

But I think there is a difference between him and his peers. 

 

I think what @C.Biscuit97 is eluding to, is that it seems to be a pattern of Josh's to trend on the low end of this metric over his career. Not necessarily that 60% is the absolute marker. 

And some of that is him, some of it is drops, some of it is offensive philosophies where he throws downfield more in college and the pros.

 

I have no problem saying Allen needs to continue to improve.  Why can’t some just say they understand that statistics can be misleading?

29 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

No there isn't much difference between his percentage last year and 60%. If you look at the QBs who made the playoffsover the last few seasons, the lowest completion percentage was Rogers this year at 63%. Yes Allen was better this season but still not good enough to be the " franchise" as many of you call him. I understand a lot of you are afraid that if Allen isn't the answer of starting over again. 

No.  There is no difference period.  Given the number of passes he threw there is no difference between 58.8% and 60%.

[C.Biscuit97]

56 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

And some of that is him, some of it is drops, some of it is offensive philosophies where he throws downfield more in college and the pros.

 

I have no problem saying Allen needs to continue to improve.  Why can’t some just say they understand that statistics can be misleading?

No.  There is no difference period.  Given the number of passes he threw there is no difference between 58.8% and 60%.

I mean we’re never going to agree on this and that’s fine.  But 60% is like .500 for a qb.  He has never hit .500 so it’s like saying 7-9 Jauron is a .500 coach.  It’s not true.   You think Allen is the only qb who throws downfield?  He is 26th in yards per attempt.  
 

again, I’ve seen some improvement and I’m definitely fine with another year.  But I just think some of y’all are just quick to dismiss this.  I could only imagine how much hate Lamar Jackson or some other qb would get if they were a 58.8% passer.

[Meatloaf63]

5 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I mean we’re never going to agree on this and that’s fine.  But 60% is like .500 for a qb.  He has never hit .500 so it’s like saying 7-9 Jauron is a .500 coach.  It’s not true.   You think Allen is the only qb who throws downfield?  He is 26th in yards per attempt.  
 

again, I’ve seen some improvement and I’m definitely fine with another year.  But I just think some of y’all are just quick to dismiss this.  I could only imagine how much hate Lamar Jackson or some other qb would get if they were a 58.8% passer.

No 58.9 is well above 500 no matter how you slice it that’s just you being negative. It’s not even comparable you’re just making things up. We’re all glad your fine with another year?Hate to tell you he’s getting at least two more whether you like it or  not unless something catastrophic happens next year that would totally be out of his character. Why? Because for what he’s been working with he has earned it whether your biased eyes let you see it or not. If the bills fix their oline issues and add some weapons and he does not improve then the talk will begin. I have a feeling that the Bill brass would have quite a chuckle on your take..,

[reddogblitz]

On 2/10/2020 at 4:36 AM, Meatloaf63 said:

Neither has Dak, Wentz, or Goff, but two of those three have got those contracts and the third is about to, and they had much better situations to thrive in yet they all have there flaws. Allen was seen as a project from day one, to ignore the obvious improvements made in the environment he has played in is ridiculous. Terrible offensive line to start with little or no weapons, improved but still substandard o line and weapons second year and Gee what happens with this and experience he improves. Still has receivers who can’t consistently catch, and still has an o line that lets jail break pressure more often than not. Still an inconsistent running game that often put him in a hole. None of the three previously mentioned qbs operate under those conditions. If your eyes can’t tell you what is going on, it must be the neuroplasticity of your brain doesn’t allow it. The real science is people who form bad opinions especially based on statistics  will go to the end of the earth to protect those poor opinions even if their eyes tell them differently....

 

While you are right about this,it also sounds like a long laundry list of excuses.  The talent and coaching around him was good enough to win 10 games and get to OT in the playoffs.  

 

Hopefully he can become a more consistent passer and cut down on the TOs in years 3.

[K-9]

16 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

While you are right about this,it also sounds like a long laundry list of excuses.  The talent and coaching around him was good enough to win 10 games and get to OT in the playoffs.  

 

Hopefully he can become a more consistent passer and cut down on the TOs in years 3.

Was the coaching and talent around him enough to win 10 games and get to OT in the playoffs with Matt Barkley at the helm? You make it sound like Allen was just along for the ride. 

[transplantbillsfan]

On 2/10/2020 at 2:40 AM, BigBillsFan said:

 

 

First of all I agree with everything you wrote. I think Allen will improve. I used the extreme example of newbs learning football to show it's not coaching that's 100% the solution, but the person as well.

 

I once helped coach a kid to have Division I technique in 6 months in tennis, he had borderline pro technique instantly. Great athlete, fast learning, incredible hand-eye coordination, etc.. Once it was a match with pressure he couldn't be consistent to save his life. He was overthinking everything. I'm sure he made a great college player by his 3rd year, but that's as far as it could go. Pressure destroys coaching all the time without the pressure cooker of time to solidify it. There has to be time applied to the learning where it feel natural.

 

Every sport requires massive nuance that just can't be coached, it must be done over and over again. It's called the "feel" for the game. I know you know this, but people think if the player gets X coaching they get a Y solution. It's freaking hard to play sports at the highest level.

 

I 100% believe Josh will be better next year. That same confidence does not mean he'll be a $35 million QB or a starter in the NFL. I hope he does. But the mere belief I think he may not makes people go insane. To say he's inaccurate right now does not mean he can't improve.

 

Is that so unreasonable as to say he may not pan out in this system/staff? That he needs a strong run game and patience to see if he's capable? That other players may in fact be better than he is currently? That he didn't "lead" the team to 10-6 but he was basically along for the ride of a great defense? That a 4th quarter comeback against the Bengals isn't really an accomplishment and more of an indictment we had no offense the whole game?

 

All of those questions are objectively true or could reasonably be argued.

 

 

You 100% believe Josh will be better next season but although he'll 100% better you don't know if he's an NFL starter????

[transplantbillsfan]

Wow.

 

This thread has turned into a crazy analytics argument.

 

Some very simple facts:

 

1) Josh Allen's upgraded OL still needs to improve because Allen was tied for having the least amount of pocket time in the NFL at 2.3 seconds per dropback. His legs keep him (and the team) alive, but our OL (particularly RG and G) needs to give him a clean pocket to throw from... because in general when he has a clean pocket, he's accurate.

 

2) If all our WRs actually caught the balls the NFL tracked as drops (these are not passes that you can put on Allen) his completion percentage would be 65.5%.

 

3) If you also discount Allen's spikes (these are counted as incomplete passes but obviously aren't and are typically good or at least neutral plays by the QB) his completion percentage would be 66.2%.

 

4) If you also discount throwaways, for which Allen got a lot of heat for NOT doing in his rookie year,  his completion percentage would be 71.6%.

 

5) If you want to keep spikes and throwaways and drops because all QBs have them, fine. What if we made his drop percentage equal to the WRs in Atlanta, who were the best in the NFL at not dropping the football? Now Allen's completion percentage is 64.9%.

 

Would that be considered "good" for our 2nd year still-raw QB?

 

6) "Giving us the most surehanded WRs in the NFL is unfair!" you say... Fine, how about our WRs are as capable of catching as Lamar Jackson's were in Baltimore, who had the 7th lowest drop percentage in the NFL. If that were the case, Allen's completion percentage would be 62%.

 

Is that a promising improvement for him?

 

7) Or what if we were just in the middle of the pack... like let's say our drop percentage was Washington Redskin level, instead. Okay, now his completion percentage is 60.7%.

 

Would those so critical of Allen here view that with optimistic eyes?

 

 

 

Surrounding Allen with talent is very simply the first and most obvious answer. It started last offseason but the OL clearly needs time to gel, Dawson Knox needs time with a jugs machine, and Allen needs another #1 WR.

 

And yes, Allen needs to work on his game this offseason.

 

But anyone who watched Allen this year and thought there wasn't some wildly promising improvement in his passing from his rookie year is also probably someone who doesn't think kittens are cute.

 

 

 

 

[GoBills808]

19 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I mean we’re never going to agree on this and that’s fine.  But 60% is like .500 for a qb.  He has never hit .500 so it’s like saying 7-9 Jauron is a .500 coach.  It’s not true.   You think Allen is the only qb who throws downfield?  He is 26th in yards per attempt.  
 

again, I’ve seen some improvement and I’m definitely fine with another year.  But I just think some of y’all are just quick to dismiss this.  I could only imagine how much hate Lamar Jackson or some other qb would get if they were a 58.8% passer.

Do you realize how off base it is to compare the difference between 58.8% and 60% over 461 attempts to .500 and .4375 over 16 games? 

Edited February 12, 2020 by Hapless Bills Fan
inappropriate language - italicized replacement

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

But anyone who watched Allen this year and thought there wasn't some wildly promising improvement in his passing from his rookie year is also probably someone who doesn't think kittens are cute.

 

I don't think kittens are cute, just for the record. 

[Buffalo716]

11 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I mean we’re never going to agree on this and that’s fine.  But 60% is like .500 for a qb.  He has never hit .500 so it’s like saying 7-9 Jauron is a .500 coach.  It’s not true.   You think Allen is the only qb who throws downfield?  He is 26th in yards per attempt.  
 

again, I’ve seen some improvement and I’m definitely fine with another year.  But I just think some of y’all are just quick to dismiss this.  I could only imagine how much hate Lamar Jackson or some other qb would get if they were a 58.8% passer.

You do realize that he was top 5 in drops and top 5 in throwaways

 

Yea he has alot to improve but he is definitely not in as scheme friendly system as Lamar and has had to make alot happen

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think kittens are cute, just for the record. 

Damn do you have a soul Gunner?

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

Damn do you have a soul Gunner?

 

Can't stand cats. I am not a big pet person. I had a goldfish once when I was a kid. Does that count?

[Buffalo716]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Can't stand cats. I am not a big pet person. I had a goldfish once when I was a kid. Does that count?

Not a huge cat fan but I still think a kitten is cute lol

 

And yes, only if you flushed him down the toilet

[Stank_Nasty]

9 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

 

While you are right about this,it also sounds like a long laundry list of excuses.  The talent and coaching around him was good enough to win 10 games and get to OT in the playoffs.  

 

Hopefully he can become a more consistent passer and cut down on the TOs in years 3.

13 total TO’s doesn’t really seem like a huge issue to me going forward. And 8 of those came in the first 4 games.... 
 

In fact I’d actually be ok with a couple of more picks if it meant we were being even mode aggressive and saw more yds and points come with it

[transplantbillsfan]

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think kittens are cute, just for the record. 

[Mango]

5 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said:

13 total TO’s doesn’t really seem like a huge issue to me going forward. And 8 of those came in the first 4 games.... 
 

In fact I’d actually be ok with a couple of more picks if it meant we were being even mode aggressive and saw more yds and points come with it

 

I am guessing he meant his fumbles, many of which we dodged a bullet on. 

[Meatloaf63]

15 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

 

While you are right about this,it also sounds like a long laundry list of excuses.  The talent and coaching around him was good enough to win 10 games and get to OT in the playoffs.  

 

Hopefully he can become a more consistent passer and cut down on the TOs in years 3.

Excuse or the truth, have to consider the environment it’s all happening in. Time will tell...

14 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Wow.

 

This thread has turned into a crazy analytics argument.

 

Some very simple facts:

 

1) Josh Allen's upgraded OL still needs to improve because Allen was tied for having the least amount of pocket time in the NFL at 2.3 seconds per dropback. His legs keep him (and the team) alive, but our OL (particularly RG and G) needs to give him a clean pocket to throw from... because in general when he has a clean pocket, he's accurate.

 

2) If all our WRs actually caught the balls the NFL tracked as drops (these are not passes that you can put on Allen) his completion percentage would be 65.5%.

 

3) If you also discount Allen's spikes (these are counted as incomplete passes but obviously aren't and are typically good or at least neutral plays by the QB) his completion percentage would be 66.2%.

 

4) If you also discount throwaways, for which Allen got a lot of heat for NOT doing in his rookie year,  his completion percentage would be 71.6%.

 

5) If you want to keep spikes and throwaways and drops because all QBs have them, fine. What if we made his drop percentage equal to the WRs in Atlanta, who were the best in the NFL at not dropping the football? Now Allen's completion percentage is 64.9%.

 

Would that be considered "good" for our 2nd year still-raw QB?

 

6) "Giving us the most surehanded WRs in the NFL is unfair!" you say... Fine, how about our WRs are as capable of catching as Lamar Jackson's were in Baltimore, who had the 7th lowest drop percentage in the NFL. If that were the case, Allen's completion percentage would be 62%.

 

Is that a promising improvement for him?

 

7) Or what if we were just in the middle of the pack... like let's say our drop percentage was Washington Redskin level, instead. Okay, now his completion percentage is 60.7%.

 

Would those so critical of Allen here view that with optimistic eyes?

 

 

 

Surrounding Allen with talent is very simply the first and most obvious answer. It started last offseason but the OL clearly needs time to gel, Dawson Knox needs time with a jugs machine, and Allen needs another #1 WR.

 

And yes, Allen needs to work on his game this offseason.

 

But anyone who watched Allen this year and thought there wasn't some wildly promising improvement in his passing from his rookie year is also probably someone who doesn't think kittens are cute.

 

 

 

 

Man, just a fantastic post? Thank you for taking the time for this....

[reddogblitz]

23 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

I am guessing he meant his fumbles, many of which we dodged a bullet on. 

 

Many of which we didn't like in the Houston and Eagles games.

[transplantbillsfan]

 

[Stank_Nasty]

5 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I saw this yesterday on nfl.com and was just to lazy to paste it over here. Pretty fair ranking I’d say. Those guys from 14-19 are all pretty interchangeable on any given gameday depending on who’s feeling it. 
 

a panel that actually looks at the whole picture for their rankings. What novel idea. Haha. 

[thebandit27]

Kyler Murray at 13 seems absurd to me.

[Stank_Nasty]

6 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Kyler Murray at 13 seems absurd to me.

Seems a bit high. His raw stat line is quite impressive and I don’t think he had a ton of help out there.  Regardless I think this is one of the most reasonable and level headed QB lists I’ve seen so far after the season. 
 

as far as Allen goes I think they get it pretty good. Right on that line of average to below average with that clutch gene and occasional wow play. I think next year that 10-14 range is a reasonable progression. 

[thebandit27]

8 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

Seems a bit high. His raw stat line is quite impressive and I don’t think he had a ton of help out there.  Regardless I think this is one of the most reasonable and level headed QB lists I’ve seen so far after the season. 
 

as far as Allen goes I think they get it pretty good. Right on that line of average to below average with that clutch gene and occasional wow play. I think next year that 10-14 range is a reasonable progression. 

No issues with where Allen is listed—Murray is my only beef.

 

He had decent numbers. Remember though he’s throwing to a HOFer and Christian Kirk. Plus their run game ranked 3rd in the NFL in YPC. 

[Gugny]

Anyone catch Golic/Wingo yesterday morning?  They did a segment on who could/would be a breakout QB next season.  They brought up every single young QB, including Lock and Jones, and Josh's name never even came up.

 

I was perplexed.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

Kyler Murray at 13 seems absurd to me.

 

I've always felt these guy's QB rankings are pretty arbitrary, although this list at the end of season seems more connected to reality than most of their work.  They have heavy "I heard of him!" elements.  Kyler Murray was OROY, so they figgur he must at least be in the top-15.  There's actually a bunch I quibble with -Tannehill had a good year, but I don't think he's the 6th best QB in the league - but again, he was "Comeback Player of the Year" so he's gotta be up there, right?

 

Anyway it's nice to see that they've moved Josh out of the basement - I think he's now getting the "10 wins and team went to the playoffs! I've heard of him!" treatment.

 

 

 

 

 

[Stank_Nasty]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

No issues with where Allen is listed—Murray is my only beef.

 

He had decent numbers. Remember though he’s throwing to a HOFer and Christian Kirk. Plus their run game ranked 3rd in the NFL in YPC. 

the bolded really surprised me.... I shoulda done a bit more homework there. definitely helps his cause.

56 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I've always felt these guy's QB rankings are pretty arbitrary, although this list at the end of season seems more connected to reality than most of their work.  They have heavy "I heard of him!" elements.  Kyler Murray was OROY, so they figgur he must at least be in the top-15.  There's actually a bunch I quibble with -Tannehill had a good year, but I don't think he's the 6th best QB in the league - but again, he was "Comeback Player of the Year" so he's gotta be up there, right?

 

Anyway it's nice to see that they've moved Josh out of the basement - I think he's now getting the "10 wins and team went to the playoffs! I've heard of him!" treatment.

actually back in week 16 or 17 of the regular season this panel had moved allen all the way up to 14 or 15.... its NFL.com. so its a panel that consists of a bit more than "the I've heard of him" type of writers. they've honestly been pretty fair all year. they havnt been heavy on just rating systems or just wins. they really seem to take in the big picture. with allen that's still a below average pass game but a run threat and clutch gene that tosses him in the mix of anywhere from between 14-20.

Edited February 13, 2020 by Stank_Nasty

[thebandit27]

4 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

the bolded really surprised me.... I shoulda done a bit more homework there. definitely helps his cause.

Yeah, Edmunds and Drake were outstanding for them.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

actually back in week 16 or 17 of the regular season this panel had moved allen all the way up to 14 or 15.... its NFL.com, man. so its a panel that consists of a bit more than "the I've heard of him" type of writers. they've honestly been pretty fair all year. they havnt been heavy on just rating systems or just wins. they really seem to take in the big picture. with allen that's still a below average pass game but a run threat and clutch gene that tosses him in the mix of anywhere from between 14-20.

 

Well, we'll have to disagree.  Just because it's NFL.com does not, IMO, mean the panel is football knowledgeable guys who watch all 32 games every week.  Someone involved in national football coverage (sorry don't remember who) explained that outside of the primetime and marquee games, they really don't watch too much.

 

They moved Allen up in Week 16 because he'd just had a Sunday Nite win against the Steelers and previous to that a nationally televised win on Thanksgiving, so they'd actually watched him play.  They moved him back down because in the playoffs, they watched him play weirdly and lose (as opposed to hardly playing, like Tannehill).

[Stank_Nasty]

Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Well, we'll have to disagree.  Just because it's NFL.com does not, IMO, mean the panel is football knowledgeable guys who watch all 32 games every week.  Someone involved in national football coverage (sorry don't remember who) explained that outside of the primetime and marquee games, they really don't watch too much.

 

They moved Allen up in Week 16 because he'd just had a Sunday Nite win against the Steelers and previous to that a nationally televised win on Thanksgiving, so they'd actually watched him play.  They moved him back down because in the playoffs, they watched him play weirdly and lose (as opposed to hardly playing, like Tannehill).

he was in the teens most of the year. I looked at those rankings weekly. when allen started protecting the football and the team kept winning he magically started to climb the list. it wasn't just a couple of primetime games. but this really isn't worth the debate. so i'll end it with, IMO its about as fair a list as I've seen on a weekly basis. but like you said, we can agree to disagree.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, Stank_Nasty said:

he was in the teens most of the year. I looked at those rankings weekly. when allen started protecting the football and the team kept winning he magically started to climb the list. it wasn't just a couple of primetime games. but this really isn't worth the debate. so i'll end it with, IMO its about as fair a list as I've seen on a weekly basis. but like you said, we can agree to disagree.

 

Ha!  Well, you got me there....it can be both, "about as fair a list I've seen on a weekly basis" AND kind of arbitrary and "I've heard of him" based ?.  Peace out.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Tannehill at 7th, I'll wait to see him repeat this year. I'm dubious.

[Stank_Nasty]

2 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Tannehill at 7th, I'll wait to see him repeat this year. I'm dubious.

they state right in the write up its not a projection into the future. just how they performed in 2019....i'd wager a large amount he comes wayyyy back down to earth this season wherever he plays. But the fact remains he was really good down the stretch for them. 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

3 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

they state right in the write up its not a projection into the future. just how they performed in 2019....i'd wager a large amount he comes wayyyy back down to earth this season wherever he plays. But the fact remains he was really good down the stretch for them. 

It's not how I'd do it, to each their own.

[H2o]

3 hours ago, Gugny said:

Anyone catch Golic/Wingo yesterday morning?  They did a segment on who could/would be a breakout QB next season.  They brought up every single young QB, including Lock and Jones, and Josh's name never even came up.

 

I was perplexed.

You shouldn't be. It's ESPN programming. 

[Gugny]

7 minutes ago, H2o said:

You shouldn't be. It's ESPN programming. 

 

Allen's name came up frequently during the season.  Golic Sr., is the only one close to "sold," on him.  I thought, at the very least, he'd have brought him up.

[H2o]

1 hour ago, Gugny said:

 

Allen's name came up frequently during the season.  Golic Sr., is the only one close to "sold," on him.  I thought, at the very least, he'd have brought him up.

Did they mention any of the other QB's going into their 3rd year like Darnold, Mayfield, or Rosen?