Ted's Film Room: Josh Allen's Rookie Year in Review (TheAthletic article)

[Logic]

Great article on The Athletic today from Ted Nguyen, who is not a regular Bills reporter and who does a nice little breakdown. If you're a subscriber, check it out. Great little video breakdowns and a pretty fair and balanced take on Allen, reasonably listing his strengths, weakness, and areas of improvement in his rookie year. I'll post a few snippets I thought were interesting, but it won't begin to cover all the ground that Nguyen does in his article.

https://theathletic.com/1072179/2019/07/17/teds-film-room-josh-allens-rookie-year-in-review/


...Allen also threw many passes that were just slightly off and made life harder on his receivers. In Weeks 1-9, Allen ranked tied for 32nd in percentage of attempts that were off target. This didn’t improve much as the season went along. In Weeks 10-17, he ranked 31st in percentage of throws that were off target (34.81 percent).

...Another area where Allen didn’t show much improvement throughout the season was his propensity for turnovers, which he also struggled with in college. In Weeks 1-9, he fumbled the ball four times, threw five interceptions and ranked 31st in turnover-worthy play percentage (3.93 percent). In Weeks 10-17, Allen fumbled four times, threw seven interceptions and ranked 28th in turnover-worthy play rate (3.67 percent). Out of his eight fumbles throughout the season, he only lost two but that’s more of a matter of luck. Learning how to take care of the ball has to be one of his biggest priorities heading into next year.

...Allen’s definition of what is open is different from most quarterbacks because he has the arm strength to fit the ball into tight spaces, but it’s a line that he has to learn how to straddle better. You don’t want to stop being aggressive but you also don’t want 12 interceptions in 320 attempts. His 3.8 interception percentage ranked 32nd in the NFL among quarterbacks who threw at least 14 times per game.

...

[After returning from injury, Allen] was much better against zone coverage, as he was throwing passes as windows opened rather than after they opened. In Weeks 1-9, his PFF passing grade vs. zone ranked 37th but in Weeks 10-17, his rating against zone jumped to 26th, which still isn’t ideal but is much better given the circumstances. When he combined his ridiculous pass velocity with anticipation, he was able to beat zone coverage in ways that very few quarterbacks could.

...Going back to college, Allen has had trouble identifying blitzes and reacting to them, but he improved throughout his rookie year. In Weeks 1-9, his passer rating vs. the blitz was 54.3. In Weeks 10-17, his rating vs. the blitz climbed to 71.4.

...

As the season went along, Allen also started completing more “big-time throws” (BTT). PFF defines a BTT as “best described as a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window”. This is imperative for Allen because although he’ll miss the occasional throw because of his inaccuracy, he has the arm talent to make up for it by making BTTs.

In Weeks 1-6, Allen only completed 4 BTTs, which ranked tied for 31st. In Weeks 11-17, he completed 12 BTTs, which ranked tied for 9th.

...Overall, Allen was a much more skilled passer than I anticipated from watching his college tape. He made touch throws, threw with anticipation and stood strong in the pocket. Most importantly, he made strides in the mental side of the game as the season went along. His accuracy is still a problem but cleaning up his mechanics should help. He may never be a precise passer but if the Bills weaponize his athletic ability, he could still be extremely effective.

 

Edited July 17, 2019 by Logic

[stevewin]

Can't remember which one - but Allen admitted in one interview that he basically didn't know what he was doing his first game against the Chargers - messed up calls etc. - and the down time from his injury and working with Anderson really helped him as the season went on.  Can't wait to see how much he improves after a full offseason.  

[C.Biscuit97]

2 hours ago, stevewin said:

Can't remember which one - but Allen admitted in one interview that he basically didn't know what he was doing his first game against the Chargers - messed up calls etc. - and the down time from his injury and working with Anderson really helped him as the season went on.  Can't wait to see how much he improves after a full offseason.  

Smart move not to start the season with another qb besides a 2nd year one then. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Logic said:

Great article on The Athletic today from Ted Nguyen, who is not a regular Bills reporter and who does a nice little breakdown.
https://theathletic.com/1072179/2019/07/17/teds-film-room-josh-allens-rookie-year-in-review/
...Allen also threw many passes that were just slightly off and made life harder on his receivers. In Weeks 1-9, Allen ranked tied for 32nd in percentage of attempts that were off target. This didn’t improve much as the season went along. In Weeks 10-17, he ranked 31st in percentage of throws that were off target (34.81 percent).

 

I want to focus in on this.

 

One of my concerns watching Allen pre-draft was that when he threw way off target, I couldn't tell why - couldn't see what the flaw in technique was.  Apparently Jordan Palmer feels he could diagnose/help.  And yet, at other times, Allen has laser accuracy including when he's throwing across his body off balance.

 

It needs to be pointed out that when Allen is not just slightly off, but way the heck off, it can be hard for the lay person to tell whether the problem is Allen making a WTF? throw, or the WR not running the route Allen expects (a misread of the D between QB and WR).  I believe that was the case in several of the plays compiled in the "inaccuracy" clip in that article.

 

 

 

[Gugny]

18 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I want to focus in on this.

 

One of my concerns watching Allen pre-draft was that when he threw way off target, I couldn't tell why - couldn't see what the flaw in technique was.  Apparently Jordan Palmer feels he could diagnose/help.  And yet, at other times, Allen has laser accuracy including when he's throwing across his body off balance.

 

It needs to be pointed out that when Allen is not just slightly off, but way the heck off, it can be hard for the lay person to tell whether the problem is Allen making a WTF? throw, or the WR not running the route Allen expects (a misread of the D between QB and WR).  I believe that was the case in several of the plays compiled in the "inaccuracy" clip in that article.

 

 

 

 

Excellent point.  Can professionals determine this?  Or is it up to the WR, HC or QB to tell? - Which they wouldn't.

[The Wiz]

3 hours ago, stevewin said:

Can't remember which one - but Allen admitted in one interview that he basically didn't know what he was doing his first game against the Chargers - messed up calls etc. - and the down time from his injury and working with Anderson really helped him as the season went on.  Can't wait to see how much he improves after a full offseason.  

Here is part of the interview and link. 

 

https://buffalonews.com/2019/05/30/josh-allen-buffalo-bills-chris-sims-first-start-chargers-houston-texans-interview/

 

“Did not know where my hots were,” Allen told Simms. “It was bad news. They were bringing Derwin James off the end and he got to me a couple times.”

 

“After that game, I kind of sat down with Dabs and we went over everything and making sure I knew my protection rules, I knew where my hots were, if there was a hot built in,” Allen said, referring to offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. “We kind of based it upon ourselves and not really what the defense was doing, but just trying to be right on our end.”

 

“That was my first start,” Allen said. “I was trying to change the protection. I said different words than what they actually meant and what I actually meant to say. The line was all discombobulated. It was all my fault, and there was nothing I could do about it. It was just kind of one of those baptism by fire deals.”

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 7/17/2019 at 6:44 PM, Gugny said:

 

Excellent point.  Can professionals determine this?  Or is it up to the WR, HC or QB to tell? - Which they wouldn't.

 

Sometimes the player will dish - has happened several times, not with Allen/Bills yet that I've seen, but years ago TJ Graham (I think) admitted he ran the wrong route on an INT.

Sometimes a commentator with a good amount of playing and coaching experience can make an educated guess, especially if they watch a lot of film on a given offensive system.  The route trees and route options in response to different D coverage are fairly standard, which enables this.  There was a missed TD assessed by Cover1 last year where he commented that Zay was running the route dictated by one defensive coverage, but Allen was throwing to the route dictated by another (I don't recall who was correct - I think it was Allen).  That wasn't his main point in the commentary, it was to break down how Allen was progressing in his reads and that he was improving in that aspect.

Sometimes a novice who watches a lot of film, usually coaches film, can make an educated guess - the receiver hesitates and looks for the ball at a place in his route, then continues but doesn't make it to where the ball is thrown.  You can guess that the WR and QB probably made a different read on the route option given how they saw the D coverage.

 

I do think it's telling that our WR coach was sent packing. 

[Virgil]

This really doesn't make me feel better about the accuracy issue.  To be dead last in these metrics and not much better even after the break is tough to read.  I get that short throws will help with that, but I always wonder just how much a QB can increase their overall accuracy.  I feel like you either have it or you don't.

 

 

[MJS]

1 hour ago, Virgil said:

This really doesn't make me feel better about the accuracy issue.  To be dead last in these metrics and not much better even after the break is tough to read.  I get that short throws will help with that, but I always wonder just how much a QB can increase their overall accuracy.  I feel like you either have it or you don't.

Bad offensive line and bad receivers surely contributed to any struggles Allen had. With more talent around him I bet we'll see slot of his struggles cure themselves.

[JaCrispy]

On 7/17/2019 at 7:24 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I want to focus in on this.

 

One of my concerns watching Allen pre-draft was that when he threw way off target, I couldn't tell why - couldn't see what the flaw in technique was.  Apparently Jordan Palmer feels he could diagnose/help.  And yet, at other times, Allen has laser accuracy including when he's throwing across his body off balance.

 

It needs to be pointed out that when Allen is not just slightly off, but way the heck off, it can be hard for the lay person to tell whether the problem is Allen making a WTF? throw, or the WR not running the route Allen expects (a misread of the D between QB and WR).  I believe that was the case in several of the plays compiled in the "inaccuracy" clip in that article.

 

 

 

I recall a throw that missed a wide open Zay Jones in the end zone against the Dolphins...at first I remember being upset that it was such an inaccurate pass...but after the game both players pointed out miscommunication as to whether Jones was supposed to hold up or keep running across the back of the end zone.

[eball]

1 hour ago, Virgil said:

This really doesn't make me feel better about the accuracy issue.  To be dead last in these metrics and not much better even after the break is tough to read.  I get that short throws will help with that, but I always wonder just how much a QB can increase their overall accuracy.  I feel like you either have it or you don't.

 

 

I believe confidence helps accuracy.  As Allen is more confident in what he sees and has more confidence in who he's throwing to, I think the accuracy will improve.

 

Some will label me a "homer" for that statement but I think it applies to any QB.

[JaCrispy]

I expect:

 

60% completions 

3,750 yards

22 TD

12 INT

 

Given his knowledge of the offense and increased talent around him, I think this seems reasonable.

Edited July 20, 2019 by JaCrispy

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

On 7/17/2019 at 4:42 PM, stevewin said:

Can't remember which one - but Allen admitted in one interview that he basically didn't know what he was doing his first game against the Chargers - messed up calls etc. - and the down time from his injury and working with Anderson really helped him as the season went on.  Can't wait to see how much he improves after a full offseason.  

 

...EXACTLY why I like this kid.....humble, mindful and respectful of the game......he is learning what he has to correct to get better and certainly works his tail off to do so (ie. Professor Palmer).....his quote, "OUR team and OUR family" exemplifies his persona.....sure I'm probably a staid, old school crustacean, but 3 guys in recent memory have earned my LOATHE label as in RG II 5/8, Kaep and Cam.....RG II5/8 and Cam had NO problem stepping up to the podium after a "W" and talking about "ME" as THE reason.....same podium after a "L" and teammates were under the bus in a nanosecond....Kaep's immaturity got him wrapped in tats 'n poses as his focal point because of early on success, forgetting what the hell he was getting PAID FOR....Allen falling into those scenarios?.....strictly my opinion, but I will say "not a chance" until proven otherwise.........

[Logic]

12 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

I expect:

 

60% completions 

37,500 yards

22 TD

12 INT

 

Given his knowledge of the offense and increased talent around him, I think this seems reasonable.

I don't know man. 37,500 yards in a season seems a bit lofty.

[mrags]

21 minutes ago, eball said:

 

I believe confidence helps accuracy.  As Allen is more confident in what he sees and has more confidence in who he's throwing to, I think the accuracy will improve.

 

Some will label me a "homer" for that statement but I think it applies to any QB.

Not to mention “you have it or you don’t” can mean more than just throwing some passes. I feel like it’s almost clear that Allen is a gamer and has “it”. He’s just got to get his confidence and familiarity with his WRs. 

13 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

I expect:

 

60% completions 

37,500 yards

22 TD

12 INT

 

Given his knowledge of the offense and increased talent around him, I think this seems reasonable.

I’ll take 37,000 yards any season. 

Edited July 20, 2019 by mrags

[Buddy Hix]

2 hours ago, Virgil said:

This really doesn't make me feel better about the accuracy issue.  To be dead last in these metrics and not much better even after the break is tough to read.  I get that short throws will help with that, but I always wonder just how much a QB can increase their overall accuracy.  I feel like you either have it or you don't.

 

 

It's a big hurdle to overcome, for sure. I know a lot of posters on here are adamant that the inaccuracy is non-existent, similar to most, or a result of a combination of factors, but I think the kid just isn't going to be an accurate QB. That being said, as the article states, it's up to Allen and Daboll to exploit the areas that Allen excels at, which could result in a quality starter.

 

This season is so pivotal for the Bills. Beane and Allen are tied at the hip and the progress that Allen makes, or doesn't make, will most likely set the table for the next 3-5 seasons.

[JaCrispy]

8 minutes ago, Logic said:

I don't know man. 37,500 yards in a season seems a bit lofty.

Only 234 yards a game...may be the homer in me but I think Josh has it in him ?

[Dr. Who]

9 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

Only 234 yards a game...may be the homer in me but I think Josh has it in him ?

Dude, more like 2,340. But maybe. Don't think our wr corps is quite that good, though.

Edited July 20, 2019 by Dr. Who

[Logic]

1 minute ago, Dr. Who said:

Dude, more like 2,340. But maybe. Don't think our wr is quite that good, though.

This. If Allen can sling it for 2,340 per game, I'll grudgingly concede that he's a franchise quarterback.

[JaCrispy]

4 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Dude, more like 2,340. But maybe. Don't think our wr is quite that good, though.

???? just caught that...my bad...correction made 

Edited July 20, 2019 by JaCrispy

[Dr. Who]

4 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

???? just caught that...my bad...correction made 

I like the optimism . . . 

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, Virgil said:

This really doesn't make me feel better about the accuracy issue.  To be dead last in these metrics and not much better even after the break is tough to read.  I get that short throws will help with that, but I always wonder just how much a QB can increase their overall accuracy.  I feel like you either have it or you don't.

 

 

 

He won't ever be known for his pinpoint accuracy. If he can learn to read defenses correctly his other traits will make up for it. I don't really want to replicate the New England offense. The Kansas City offense makes way more sense for his skill set. Considering all the speed they've added I think that might be the plan.

[Chandler#81]

2 hours ago, Virgil said:

This really doesn't make me feel better about the accuracy issue.  To be dead last in these metrics and not much better even after the break is tough to read.  I get that short throws will help with that, but I always wonder just how much a QB can increase their overall accuracy.  I feel like you either have it or you don't.

 

 

Well, this should make you feel a little better; at #32,  Allen was far from dead last. Hell, he was our teams 4th QB to play. There’s 32 teams, but probably 100 QBs played in games. 

I feel he Has it. I’ll check back after his 2nd season.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

30 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

He won't ever be known for his pinpoint accuracy. If he can learn to read defenses correctly his other traits will make up for it. I don't really want to replicate the New England offense. The Kansas City offense makes way more sense for his skill set. Considering all the speed they've added I think that might be the plan.

 

...and you know this how?.....isn't the jury out versus your assumed skill set of pre-determined judgment?.......what did I miss here?.....

[Virgil]

9 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

Well, this should make you feel a little better; at #32,  Allen was far from dead last. Hell, he was our teams 4th QB to play. There’s 32 teams, but probably 100 QBs played in games. 

I feel he Has it. I’ll check back after his 2nd season.

 

No!  You make a decision this moment and either write him off or don’t!

[Chandler#81]

3 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

No!  You make a decision this moment and either write him off or don’t!

?OK, I’ll roll the dice and say he’s going to be fantastic!

[buffalobloodfloridahome]

Getting time to set his feet and having familiarity with the playbook. Building chemistry and having improved his receiving corps, I think will all factor into his accuracy improving year two. His foot work which palmer has made a priority should help as well. Will he ever be the most accurate qb in the league, prolly not, but I believe he can become a solid passer. 

[cd1]

3 hours ago, Virgil said:

This really doesn't make me feel better about the accuracy issue.  To be dead last in these metrics and not much better even after the break is tough to read.  I get that short throws will help with that, but I always wonder just how much a QB can increase their overall accuracy.  I feel like you either have it or you don't.

 

 

 

Just ask Tyrod CheckDown Taylor...  

Edited July 20, 2019 by cd1

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

I don't know man. 37,500 yards in a season seems a bit lofty.

 

 

...Tuhrod came close, right??........

[Rocket94]

I like that Allen admits that he was lost at times. Who wouldn't be? Arriving in Buffalo and the NFL and thrust in to a starting role almost immediately. Get off a plane from Wyoming and get handed a play book. I don't know what's harder, his situation, or hitting a 90 mph curveball! He now has a good quarterback coach and game experience in his favor. 

Edited July 20, 2019 by Rocket94

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...and you know this how?.....isn't the jury out versus your assumed skill set of pre-determined judgment?.......what did I miss here?.....

 

He's never been a consistently accurate passer and I don't expect that to change. I'm not complaining though. He has to model himself after Mahomes. Mahomes didn't break records with accuracy. He consistently found the open receiver and got it in their vicinity, and his pure arm strength and athleticism did the rest. I don't think Allen's accuracy is as bad as people say, it's good enough for him to be a top QB if he masters everything else. But I don't expect him to hit passes like Brees or Mayfield. That isn't his game.

[C.Biscuit97]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

He's never been a consistently accurate passer and I don't expect that to change. I'm not complaining though. He has to model himself after Mahomes. Mahomes didn't break records with accuracy. He consistently found the open receiver and got it in their vicinity, and his pure arm strength and athleticism did the rest. I don't think Allen's accuracy is as bad as people say, it's good enough for him to be a top QB if he masters everything else. But I don't expect him to hit passes like Brees or Mayfield. That isn't his game.

I agree with all this but just wanted to ppoint out Mahomes completed 66% of his passes this year.  

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

8 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

He's never been a consistently accurate passer and I don't expect that to change. I'm not complaining though. He has to model himself after Mahomes. Mahomes didn't break records with accuracy. He consistently found the open receiver and got it in their vicinity, and his pure arm strength and athleticism did the rest. I don't think Allen's accuracy is as bad as people say, it's good enough for him to be a top QB if he masters everything else. But I don't expect him to hit passes like Brees or Mayfield. That isn't his game.

...your opinion and we disagree, but respectfully so noted....2019 will be our proving stage....stay tuned..........

[Rocket94]

11 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

...your opinion and we disagree, but respectfully so noted....2019 will be our proving stage....stay tuned..........

I cannot believe all of the scrutiny. The kid admits that he has work to do, he didn't even play a whole season and he didn't have the greatest supporting cast did he! I think that he did remarkably well considering that he was often running for his life. Speaking of accuracy, it is often not accurate to compare him to other QB's. Often times they are playing in different circumstances with different personal.

Edited July 20, 2019 by Rocket94

[HappyDays]

9 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I agree with all this but just wanted to ppoint out Mahomes completed 66% of his passes this year.  

 

Allen completed 65% of his passes in the last game and was no more accurate than he had been all year. He was finding open receivers to deliver the ball to, and if I remember correctly there were no drops in that game. That's the game I would use to model his path for success. We already know his athleticism, arm strength, and contact balance are elite. If he can read a defense at an above average level he will survive with below average accuracy. I just want to see us build the offense around that skill set. Get receivers that can quickly get open 15 yards down field and let the offense fly.

[Buffalo Boy]

7 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

...your opinion and we disagree, but respectfully so noted....2019 will be our proving stage....stay tuned..........

Not to mix threads but 

Cam Newton went from 59.7 career % completions to 67.9 in 2018.

it is possible for a QB to be coached into a different way of playing.

JA played “ Hero Ball” in college and here last year.

With improved parts around him and a year under his belt, it shouldn’t be surprising if he bumps that completion percentage up an appreciable amount.

[HappyDays]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo Boy said:

Cam Newton went from 59.7 career % completions to 67.9 in 2018.

 

Yeah, completion percentage doesn't measure accuracy. It measures your ability to complete a pass. That's it. It takes more than pinpoint accuracy to complete a pass. I don't know why so many people still conflate the two.

Edited July 20, 2019 by HappyDays

[Buffalo Boy]

7 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yeah, completion percentage doesn't measure accuracy. It measures your ability to complete a pass. That's it. It takes more than pinpoint accuracy to complete a pass. I don't know why so many people still conflate the two.

The comparison is based on the fact that neither are “ accurate QBs”.

Cam has also been a guy who drives balls downfield using arm strength and bad mechanics. He was coached by N Turner to take the underneath stuff with McCaffrey.

JA is being coached to scan short to long this year( if reports are correct.)

Edited July 20, 2019 by Buffalo Boy

[Rocket94]

I would like to believe that Allen's "accuracy" will improve over time.

[Chandler#81]

27 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Allen completed 65% of his passes in the last game and was no more accurate than he had been all year. He was finding open receivers to deliver the ball to, and if I remember correctly there were no drops in that game. That's the game I would use to model his path for success. We already know his athleticism, arm strength, and contact balance are elite. If he can read a defense at an above average level he will survive with below average accuracy. I just want to see us build the offense around that skill set. Get receivers that can quickly get open 15 yards down field and let the offense fly.

I’ll add to this. In just 11 starts, ‘Mr. Inaccurate’ led the Bills to two 4th Quarter come from behind WINS -against Tennessee & Detroit. That’s twice as many as Tyrod ‘the 3 year, “Pro Bowl” starter’ Taylor, who preceded him here. He’d have had 2 MORE comeback wins if our overrated Defense could have kept Darnold from topping his late comeback effort vs. NYJ and Charles Clay could have caught a soft pass in his belly -WIDE OPEN in the end zone. Add to this, he was far and away the Best Player on the field in wins @ Minnesota, vs. Miami and Jacksonville. Do I expect improvement in all aspects of his game this year? Of course! Even Scott Law expects improvement.

How much? Like last season, he’ll be held back only by substandard play of teammates.