Jump to content

Kentucky Derby Predictions?


Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, plenzmd1 said:

well, just got 4th, 8th and 9th in The Old Forester..thats good, got my bad one out of my system!!!!

 

Did you have money on Maximum Security? It must have been somewhat sentimental after all the years you lived there! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, KD in CA said:

He was bumping guys on the way home, no?

 

Oh no! It’s like the NBA? They should go more Like Ben Hurr. Get to the line, you win! 

 

 

(Kidding, pro-horse health guy, and the jockeys are people too.) 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

Oh no! It’s like the NBA? They should go more Like Ben Hurr. Get to the line, you win! 

 

 

(Kidding, pro-horse health guy, and the jockeys are people too.) 

 

Looks like he cut off the guy on the outside then came back down and cut off the guy on the inside!

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting given all the horse health and security conversation earlier here. That could have been horrific, and nearly was, when I watch it in slow motion. I’m not a horse race guy, but I’m glad everyone is OK. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Augie said:

Interesting given all the horse health and security conversation earlier here. That could have been horrific, and nearly was, when I watch it in slow motion. I’m not a horse race guy, but I’m glad everyone is OK. 

 

Hate to see the refs determine the outcome, but it was a foul and quite possibly impacted Country House.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BS call in my opinion. Do you know how much bumping, rubbing and cutting off goes into every race?  Additionally, the winner was still 3 lengths back. Furthermore, when Maximum went outside he let all the inside horses gain position. 

 

BS call. To tell you the truth reminds me of a lot of Bills games. 

 

I would like to think i am a horse health advocate too. However, horse racing is inherently bad for horse health. Getting in front of a horse has no more risk than any other aspect of the whole race. 

 

Sloppy conditions... 20+field... giant peloton of horses....  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, KD in CA said:

 

Hate to see the refs determine the outcome, but it was a foul and quite possibly impacted Country House.

 

19 minutes ago, RaoulDuke79 said:

That's just like holding in football. It could be called every play. I'm amazed they overturned the win. No skin off my back either way, but I'm shocked they made the call.

Was it really that egregious?

 

He definitely got in the way of War of Will, but I don't see how it affected Country House.

 

I'm stunned.

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, Mark Vader said:

 

Was it really that egregious?

 

He definitely got in the way of War of Will, but I don't see how it affected Country House.

 

I'm stunned.

Totally agree.  Only the 1 and the 18 horses were interfered with and neither complained.   They knew their horses were spent.  Country Home wasn't affected.   The jockey said his horse was turned sideways.   Pure BS.  That jockey saw an opportunity to win the derby so he filed the complaint.   It's a tainted win.  The better horse was robbed.  Feel badly for the jockey and trainer and owners of Maximum Security. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, jkeerie said:

Totally agree.  Only the 1 and the 18 horses were interfered with and neither complained.   They knew their horses were spent.  Country Home wasn't affected.   The jockey said his horse was turned sideways.   Pure BS.  That jockey saw an opportunity to win the derby so he filed the complaint.   It's a tainted win.  The better horse was robbed.  Feel badly for the jockey and trainer and owners of Maximum Security. 

 

Just imagine if Maximum Security wins the next two. Funny thing happened on the way to the Triple Crown....

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I feel HORRIBLE for the jockey. That was brutal. He did interfere with the 1 but man that’s tough.

You can technically call interference in those tight groups all the time. This may have been technically the right call but from a judgment standpoint it was a horrible call. There was no need to make this a historical race because of a post race judging call. Upholding rules without exercising common sense and good judgment has been the bane of the present day sports scene. The best horse in the race won and then it was taken away from him. That's wrong. 

  • Like (+1) 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

Just imagine if Maximum Security wins the next two. Funny thing happened on the way to the Triple Crown....

 

I said the same exact thing to the fam'.

 

I wonder if Maximum Security will run the next two.

 

Not sure the hows and whys, but I know that horses sometimes drop out when the Triple Crown is out of reach.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, JohnC said:

You can technically call interference in those tight groups all the time. This may have been technically the right call but from a judgment standpoint it was a horrible call. There was no need to make this a historical race because of a post race judging call. Upholding rules without exercising common sense and good judgment has been the bane of the present day sports scene. The best horse in the race won and then it was taken away from him. That's wrong. 

 

Totally agree with the bane comment. 

 

But I heard one of the owners say that if it was a regular race and not the Kentucky Derby the disqualification would have been routine. KD called it early.

 

I watch about 6 minutes of horse racing per year so I have no clue whether the reversal was legit, but what gives the call legs to me is how long it took to reverse it (they didn't want to) and the fact that it was the first in history (not an easy call to make).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, SinceThe70s said:

 

Totally agree with the bane comment. 

 

But I heard one of the owners say that if it was a regular race and not the Kentucky Derby the disqualification would have been routine. KD called it early.

 

I watch about 6 minutes of horse racing per year so I have no clue whether the reversal was legit, but what gives the call legs to me is how long it took to reverse it (they didn't want to) and the fact that it was the first in history (not an easy call to make).

Where I disagree with you is that in a low level race the disqualification call has little consequence. If this was a SB game and there was a close interference play at the end of the game I would say let the players determine the outcome. As I said in the previous post technically this was the right call. But for a historical race where the infraction didn't influence the outcome I say let it go. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Where I disagree with you is that in a low level race the disqualification call has little consequence. If this was a SB game and there was a close interference play at the end of the game I would say let the players determine the outcome. As I said in the previous post technically this was the right call. But for a historical race where the infraction didn't influence the outcome I say let it go. 

 

That's an age old argument - should the rules apply less when the stakes are larger - bigger game or closer to the end of a game. I never fully bought into that line of reasoning.

 

For the record, I'm not taking sides - I don't have a horse in this race :)  -  and I'm in no way qualified to offer an objective or subjective opinion.

 

But the fact that this overturn was unprecedented suggests to me that it 'didn't influence the outcome' may be debatable.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

Where I disagree with you is that in a low level race the disqualification call has little consequence. If this was a SB game and there was a close interference play at the end of the game I would say let the players determine the outcome. As I said in the previous post technically this was the right call. But for a historical race where the infraction didn't influence the outcome I say let it go. 

I agree with you that it was a bad call but not for the same reason.  The rider of the 1 is a bad rider and does stupid stuff like what he did  there quite often.  

 

There was no hole for him to go through with the 7 on his inside and the 16 on his outside.  His impatience almost caused a catastrophe and may have also cost his horse a better placing.  The 7 drifted out on the turn like many horses do.  He did not drift a lot.  It isn't the same thing as coming out on someone in the stretch.  The 16, although probably about to tire anyway, took the worst of it.  

 

The 1 took a bump for sure but it was his jockey's fault for letting him get on heels.  Wait until the lane.  Know the situation.  When the 16 fades, take the spot and maybe even win the race.  Saez simply rode the race the way it should be ridden and the horse drifted a bit.  It was not an egregious amount by any stretch and was not inconsistent by much if any against what can be expected on the turn.  Gafflione's stats look good but are built on getting good mounts at a second tier track.  He often is clueless in competitive races but very few have 20 horses.  He usually just causes his horse to lose if he faces any adversity.  He belongs nowhere near the Derby at this point in his career.  Saez on the other hand is one of, if not the very top jockey in America.  The Ortiz brothers and Flavien Prat can make a case, but Saez is right there.  

 

Maximum Security was best today, the 20 ran great and got lucky, the 13 got unlucky with a bad spot but the 1 will be dangerous in the Preakness assuming a rider switch and/or an easy trip.

Edited by 4merper4mer
  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, SinceThe70s said:

 

Totally agree with the bane comment. 

 

But I heard one of the owners say that if it was a regular race and not the Kentucky Derby the disqualification would have been routine. KD called it early.

 

I watch about 6 minutes of horse racing per year so I have no clue whether the reversal was legit, but what gives the call legs to me is how long it took to reverse it (they didn't want to) and the fact that it was the first in history (not an easy call to make).

 

That was Bill Mott, trainer of Country House, interviewed by NBC.

 

He said, among other things, “If this was just a Maiden Claimer held on a weekday at some other track, the disqualification would be routine...shouldn’t be any different for this race...I just hope the stewards do the right thing.  I wouldn’t want to be in their shoes.”

.

Edited by The Senator
  • Like (+1) 1
  • Thank you (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, The Senator said:

 

That was Bill Mott, trainer of Country House.  

 

He said, among other things, “If this was just a Maiden Race held on a weekday at some other track, the disqualification would be routine...shouldn’t be any different for this race...I just hope the stewards do the right thing.  I wouldn’t want to be in their shoes.”

.

 

I have no clue how horse racing works. Was the review initiated by Mott's team or is it something that happens automatically for every race?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I saw a new to me angle on the news and can see why it was tough for the stewards.  It was a little more sudden than I thought.  Still, the root cause was the impatience of the rider of the 1 going to a spot where he didn't belong.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, SinceThe70s said:

 

I have no clue how horse racing works. Was the review initiated by Mott's team or is it something that happens automatically for every race?

 

The short answer is, no, every race is not automatically reviewed.

 

I believe the objection was sought by 2 of the jockeys, including Country House jockey Flavien Pratt, and initiated by Mott.

.

 

 

 

  • Thank you (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, SinceThe70s said:

 

I have no clue how horse racing works. Was the review initiated by Mott's team or is it something that happens automatically for every race?

There are actually two "types" of revirews in horse racing

 

1) Inquiry..this is called for by the stewards(refs) who watch every race, almost always 3 of them..and decide if they want to sse something again. Anytime a horse falls, aotomatic inquiry. 

 

2) Objection is filed by usually the jockey..but I guess it could be by the trainer as well, but I have never seen that in my 40years of regularly going to the track. Jockeys can be fined if deemed it was a silly objection ..don't want an objection in every race! And though these guys are competing, they are a community that needs to trust each other for their safety and well bing and so objections are rare.

 

As a horseplayer,, an inquiry could usually go either way.., an  Inquiry AND an Objection means your chances on the horse coming down are much better..

 

BTW, live i did not see the incident. However, as soon as the jock said..paraphasing here"my horse veered a bit a from the crowd on the turn, but i got him straighten quick", i said to my wife...oh oh, something is amiss, he is worried bout something.

 

I think it was the right call, surprised as hell the stewards had the stones to overturn it..good for them!

  • Thank you (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, Mark Vader said:

 

Was it really that egregious?

 

He definitely got in the way of War of Will, but I don't see how it affected Country House.

 

I'm stunned.

The announcers made the point several times that there was no affect on Country House, and the best horse crossed the line first. But other horses were affected, good chance places 3-5 would have ended differently, and the rules call for disqualification if the outcome (not just the winner) is affected, which it was. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...