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What creates a draft BUST?


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Lack of maturity and work ethic has to be part of it, meaning not taking your craft as serious in the NFL, as it is not college.  Not studying the playbook, spending all of your money and getting involved in the lifestyle that fame brings .  Everyone in the NFL is the best of the best.

Edited by Dablitzkrieg
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9 hours ago, NewDayBills said:

How do players like Trent Richardson go from being sure thing future HOFers to virtually out of the league in 2 or 3 years? How does this happen? How do these guys get the stamp of approval and the seal of perfection from GMs and pro scouts to out of the league in the blink of an eye? Do you guys see any projected top 15-20 pick in this year's draft that you feel may be out of the league in a few years? How and why does this happen?

 

 

It is interesting and I think each bust/failure has unique reasons.  Some like Jamarcus Russell or Ryan Leaf - attitude and desire got the better of them.  Their natural abilities were always enough to make them stars, but when you get to the NFL - you need desire and a hard work ethic to improve and they threw that away.

 

Others like Trent Richardson - played on the best team and that matching to their talent made them world beaters in college.  Once you got to the pro’s - the line could not bulldoze the same and the LBs and Safeties aren’t afraid to hit and suddenly you become average.  His vision was never really tested at Alabama because the O-Line opened holes right where he was supposed to go and therefore it made him look so much better.  Even now with the defunct AAFL he could no longer break away, but give him the ball near the goal line and he was money.

 

There are others - like Maybin where scheme fit is a huge issue.  He was expected to be something he was not, but he did not fit the role being asked.    It was obvious he feasted on lesser talent, but he never really fit a role in the NFL.  

 

A definitive measurement of heart and desire would go a long way to identify these potentially borderline players, but there can be more than that to make a final judgement.

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You need a guy that loves the game, the number one reason is that the kid got paid and he's had enough. If they manage it right they're set for life. You need a guy that loves waking up at 5am, hitting the gym and spending a good part of the day watching film on their tablet. If you can find a guy who has that hunger to get better every snap you're already halfway there.

 

Drafting based on measurables is the other downfall(Maybin comes to mind, bulked up for the combine when everyone knew he couldn't keep the weight on) I still to this day will never understand how a guy running a 40 in his underwear propels him up draft boards. Put on the tape, if he looks the part, and has the build, take him.

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9 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

 

 

Simple, you can’t truly predict motivation, competitiveness and the ability to adjust to the pro game.  This is not unlike business.  An Ivy League education with an advanced degree from a prestigious school does not equal success in business.  There are many examples of people with much less of a pedigree who become wildly successful due to hard work, determination and natural ability that was not displayed in degrees.

 

Yep.  Anyone who hires/manages/fires people at work knows that you frequently get someone a lot different from what was advertised on the resume and job interview.

 

We hired an HR Director 18 months ago who looked and sounded great....she turned out to be completely useless, the most do-nothing person I’ve ever worked with.  Never lobbied so hard to have someone fired.  

Bills equivalent draft pick:  Aaron Maybin.

 

Conversely, at my last company we hired a guy with terrible experience;  two of us just had a feeling he was someone who needed the right opportunity.  He flourished.  

Bills equivalent draft pick:  Stevie Johnson 

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10 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

 

 

Simple, you can’t truly predict motivation, competitiveness and the ability to adjust to the pro game.  This is not unlike business.  An Ivy League education with an advanced degree from a prestigious school does not equal success in business.  There are many examples of people with much less of a pedigree who become wildly successful due to hard work, determination and natural ability that was not displayed in degrees.

The player may also have landed in the wrong situation for them on top of the things you mentioned.  This is why certain QBs refused to go to certain franchises at times.

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21 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Some, not all busts, are immature kids who cannot handle the demands of being a professional.  The best examples are Jamarcus Russell & Ryan Leaf who did not take professionalism seriously.  Both were out of shape almost immediately after their final college year ended.  Russell was lazy & wouldn't study the playbook-the best story was the Raiders giving him blank tapes & him coming back telling them he watched the film that was on the tape.  Leaf was more into himself than a team concept.  The best story I heard on Leaf was after he was drafted he went to party in Vegas & when San Diego wanted him to showup for a press conference he told them they'd have to wait until he was done partying.  The Leaf story I heard on the radio years ago when a former Charger employee (I forget what title he held or who it was) was asked when did you first get an indication that you made a mistake drafting Leaf.  Leaf also showed bad signs at the combine.  He came in overweight and blew off interviews with Indy because he didn't want them to draft him. 

 

Other guys just don't have the talent to adjust to the speed of the NFL.  What makes scouting so tough is that these guys are playing against players who will never play ball again after college.  The guys drafted by the NFL are men against boys in college.  When it's all men against men they can't get the job done.  I place a greater emphasis on games like the Senior Bowl where these players are playing against other players who have a future in the NFL.  When all the film on a guy is him playing against future accountants, it's tough to evaluate his pro potential.  

 

The best ways to avoid a bust are 1)Talk with the player and those who know him like his coaches before the draft.  If he shows any signs of not being totally dedicated to football, don't waste a high pick on him.  2) Don't get too enamored with as physical freak at the combine whose game film doesn't match the athleticism shown there.  The best example in draft history is Mike Mamula.  3) Don't draft injury prone players, or guys who project to be so in the NFL.  If the guy has missed significant playing time in multiple seasons he may bust in the NFL.  The best examples of a player projecting to become injury prone in the NFL are QBs who take a lot of sacks in college because they hold onto the ball too long.  A QB who will continuously get sacked more than most other QBs is going to have injury problems in the NFL.  The best example is Rob Johnson.  When the Bills 1st acquired him I read some scouting reports and one of my 1st posts after the trade was titled "Rob Johnson, The Sacked Man"  

I agree with almost everything you wrote.

And then there are the exceptions like Khalil Mack. He dominated against mostly guys like you wrote that will never play after UB. How do you accurately project his success and compare it to a guy like Josh Allen who plays on on of the worst teams in the SEC?

That is why I advocate for trading down not up in most cases.

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Injury kills a lot of careers. Motivation or lack it lacks is a factor too. Also being drafted into the wrong situation is something that can derail a career. Also sometimes scouts just get it wrong on how a player's athletic ability translates to the NFL A player can be a freak athlete who had success at the college level but they just don't make it work when they need to be a polished player

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There also seems to be a herd mentality in terms of drafting, at least from fans and also in front offices I'm assuming where only X player is appropriate at a certain spot for appropriate value. Out of the box thinking seems to be discouraged these days by macho Bud Light drinking hairy cheeto eating man babies who flock with other numb nuts alike. I remember how Denzel Ward at #4 by Cleveland was scoffed at, but guess what? He made the Pro Bowl. 

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On 4/20/2019 at 10:40 AM, BuffaloBill said:

 

 

Simple, you can’t truly predict motivation, competitiveness and the ability to adjust to the pro game.  This is not unlike business.  An Ivy League education with an advanced degree from a prestigious school does not equal success in business.  There are many examples of people with much less of a pedigree who become wildly successful due to hard work, determination and natural ability that was not displayed in degrees.

 

Then you roll in scheme, personality fits, injuries, home life issues on top of those  (I think a lot of guys are playing far more hurt than we like to acknowledge any given day)

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