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Calling it now: Zay Jones will not be on the week 1 roster.


Alphadawg7

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22 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I dont hate him, said it many times in this thread.  Will be happy for him to prove my skepticism wrong.  I even liked it when we drafted him, albeit I preferred JuJu as I saw more of him living in LA.  But still was excited about Zay.  

 

Im just being honest about what he’s done so far.  I was one of just a few people who liked the Stevie Johnson pick too.  And after watching him over several years, my earlier excitement grew critical of how he really played.  I was in the minority then too and people said I was crazy for doubting him just because he had 3 consecutive 1000 yard seasons. But he barley eclipsed 1000 yards in a pass happy offense as number 1 target with a gunslinging QB.  And he was always piling on stats at ends of blow out losses and irrelevant during close games too often or when it mattered. 

 

Once he left Buffalo he proved he was just another guy despite playing with a future HOF QB and was out of the league in his prime.

 

Not saying that’s going to happen to Zay, just saying that just because you are a fan of the Bills doesn’t mean you can’t be critically honest either even when you liked the player.

 

That might be the dumbest comment yet.  I don’t post with your type agendas.  

I know this is veering off the actual topic but since when is the age of 30 a wr's "prime"?

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1 hour ago, Stank_Nasty said:

I know this is veering off the actual topic but since when is the age of 30 a wr's "prime"?

 

He hasn't played in the NFL since 2015, when he was 28...and thats a WRs prime.  And he hasn't had a meaningful season since 2012 when he was 25. 

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3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

He hasn't played in the NFL since 2015, when he was 28...and thats a WRs prime.  And he hasn't had a meaningful season since 2012 when he was 25. 

he turned 29 his last season in the league and didn't play the next when he eventually turned 30.... that's not a dudes prime. I think its fairly evident his prime was ages 24-27. about like every other nfl player....

 

but I honestly don't care enough to keep a debate going over it..... so whatever. you win???

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19 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Does anyone here actually believe we had just 1 drop per game? Does that match up with anyone's memory of the games last year?

 

We had a lot more drops than what was counted as an official stat.  The stat is subjective, but at the end of the day, our WR's dropped a heck of a lot more passes than what got registered as an official drop.  This is true for all teams too.  

 

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9 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

he turned 29 his last season in the league and didn't play the next when he eventually turned 30.... that's not a dudes prime. I think its fairly evident his prime was ages 24-27. about like every other nfl player....

 

but I honestly don't care enough to keep a debate going over it..... so whatever. you win???

 

All good...to clarify, he didnt play his last season in the league.  He was 28 the last time he was on the field as 2015 was his last year he actually played.  28 is still a WR's prime, so is 29 as most good WR's play at a high level until at least 32 and even longer in a lot of cases.  More importantly, Stevie had not had a relevant season since 2013 when he was 25/26 years old.  

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

All good...to clarify, he didnt play his last season in the league.  He was 28 the last time he was on the field as 2015 was his last year he actually played.  28 is still a WR's prime, so is 29 as most good WR's play at a high level until at least 32 and even longer in a lot of cases.  More importantly, Stevie had not had a relevant season since 2013 when he was 25/26 years old.  

 

 

just because I'm being difficult..... he had 7 grabs for 90 yds and a td a day after his 29th birthday. then didn't catch another pass that year. must have gotten hurt..... soooooo 29. ?

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34 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

just because I'm being difficult..... he had 7 grabs for 90 yds and a td a day after his 29th birthday. then didn't catch another pass that year. must have gotten hurt..... soooooo 29. ?

 

Ah, didn’t know he turned 29 during his final season.  Either way, 29 is still prime years for a WR and SJ play fell off 3 years earlier

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1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

All good...to clarify, he didnt play his last season in the league.  He was 28 the last time he was on the field as 2015 was his last year he actually played.  28 is still a WR's prime, so is 29 as most good WR's play at a high level until at least 32 and even longer in a lot of cases.  More importantly, Stevie had not had a relevant season since 2013 when he was 25/26 years old.  

 

 

 

I would argue 25 and 26 are a receiver's prime now. It is kinda 25-27 rather than 28-30. Guys are coming into the league younger, starting younger... it is just different. That said Stevie was a very specific fit here. He was a #2 anywhere else but produced at a sort of 1B level here in the Chan offense. 

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18 hours ago, GG said:

Funny how you link a TD for a game that's out of hand.

 

This was the statement you made, to which I was responding:

"It would be easier to have faith if he once showed the ability to catch without fighting the ball. 

At this point, if you're appealing to faith, then it's a blind faith because he hasn't shown enough to merit anything else.  

 

The out-of-handness of the game is not germaine to addressing your statement.

 

Now you could acknowledge the point: yes, Zay has in fact shown the ability to catch without fighting the ball

But the game is apparently "let me exaggerate ridiculously then when someone calls me on it switch to a different argument"

 

I don't play that.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This was the statement you made, to which I was responding:

"It would be easier to have faith if he once showed the ability to catch without fighting the ball. 

At this point, if you're appealing to faith, then it's a blind faith because he hasn't shown enough to merit anything else.  

 

The out-of-handness of the game is not germaine to addressing your statement.

 

Now you could acknowledge the point: yes, Zay has in fact shown the ability to catch without fighting the ball

But the game is apparently "let me exaggerate ridiculously then when someone calls me on it switch to a different argument"

 

I don't play that.

 

 

 

If you're going to be a stickler for a totally literal interpretation of every comment, then perhaps you shouldn't have linked a video that shows Zay clearly bobbling a catch when he hits the ground.  That catch is likely overturned by 2017 rules. 

 

Having said that, thank you for finding the ONE catch that Zay made without fighting the ball.  So, despite the inconclusive evidence that he actually cleanly caught the ball without a bobble or double-tap, since the camera angle was shielded by the defender, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that this ONE particular catch was clean.

 

The commentary about out-of-hand games was related to another comment that I made earlier in the thread about Zay only showing up when the stakes don't matter.  The eye test and stats bear that out.

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1 hour ago, Stank_Nasty said:

just because I'm being difficult..... he had 7 grabs for 90 yds and a td a day after his 29th birthday. then didn't catch another pass that year. must have gotten hurt..... soooooo 29. ?

 

SJ, right?  IR'd with surgery for torn meniscus 2016, released next preseason.

 

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Ah, didn’t know he turned 29 during his final season.  Either way, 29 is still prime years for a WR and SJ play fell off 3 years earlier

 

In my opinion, SJ was a great fit for the Erhart-Perkins system the way Chan coached it - "beat your man, run to the spot"

When he moved to teams running a West Coast timing offense, he became JAG

 

Also, isn't he the one who said he took the off-season program pamplet they gave him (on the Bills) and stuck it in a drawer and never looked at it?  Guys who take their body for granted and don't make a craft out of caring for it and conditioning don't last that long. 

 

I don't think the records support the notion that 29 is 'still prime years for a WR'.  A handful of truly great WR last that long.  If you look at last year's top-20 receivers, 2 were 29 (Julio Jones and Kelce) and one is 30 (Antonio Brown).  The average age looks about 25-26 with a standard deviation of 2-3 yrs.  So most fall in the range 23-28 years.  JJSS is an outliery on the young end just as JJ and AB are at the high end.

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4 minutes ago, GG said:

 

If you're going to be a stickler for a totally literal interpretation of every comment, then perhaps you shouldn't have linked a video that shows Zay clearly bobbling a catch when he hits the ground.  That catch is likely overturned by 2017 rules. 

 

Having said that, thank you for finding the ONE catch that Zay made without fighting the ball.  So, despite the inconclusive evidence that he actually cleanly caught the ball without a bobble or double-tap, since the camera angle was shielded by the defender, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that this ONE particular catch was clean.

 

The commentary about out-of-hand games was related to another comment that I made earlier in the thread about Zay only showing up when the stakes don't matter.  The eye test and stats bear that out.

 

They don't, actually, but you go on beating your hoss.  How do I know you're hoss-beating?  Because it wasn't presented by me as the ONE catch, there are others - it was simply to illustrate a point of what lengths people are going to to dis off  Zay Jones, I could easily in a minute pull up clips of a couple good catches.  Distorting it into a straw-man is a sure sign of a stable agenda.

 

Is he what we all (and the Bills) hoped for, from looking at his college tape and trading up in the draft?  No, not to date.   He clearly struggled adjusting to the NFL, and not having an established, proficient passing QB throwing to him, an established #1 WR playing across from him, or (last year) a sound pass-protecting OL didn't help.  He was clearly much better last year than the year before.  When I watched every offensive snap the Bills made last year, I see a lot of places where he's doing what he's asked, getting open, and not getting the ball.    Has he had drops, or whiffed on catches he needs to make to be a quality WR, sure?  He needs to take another step this year.

 

But let's not be silly about it.  He's had good catches and good games, especially with Barkley and towards the end of the year as Allen progressed. 

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This is why I love Bills fans. 

A 38-page thread about a third year wide receiver.

What could still be being discussed on page 38 that hasn't been covered already?

Crikey!

Edited by Logic
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31 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

They don't, actually, but you go on beating your hoss.  How do I know you're hoss-beating?  Because it wasn't presented by me as the ONE catch, there are others - it was simply to illustrate a point of what lengths people are going to to dis off  Zay Jones, I could easily in a minute pull up clips of a couple good catches.  Distorting it into a straw-man is a sure sign of a stable agenda.

 

Is he what we all (and the Bills) hoped for, from looking at his college tape and trading up in the draft?  No, not to date.   He clearly struggled adjusting to the NFL, and not having an established, proficient passing QB throwing to him, an established #1 WR playing across from him, or (last year) a sound pass-protecting OL didn't help.  He was clearly much better last year than the year before.  When I watched every offensive snap the Bills made last year, I see a lot of places where he's doing what he's asked, getting open, and not getting the ball.    Has he had drops, or whiffed on catches he needs to make to be a quality WR, sure?  He needs to take another step this year.

 

But let's not be silly about it.  He's had good catches and good games, especially with Barkley and towards the end of the year as Allen progressed. 

The stats do bear out Zay's disappearance when things matter.  So does Foster's quicker improvement in half of the season compared to Zay's 2 year plan. 

 

That you chose to be a stickler on the literal vs hyperbole doesn't change the fact that there's little to base expectations of his sudden improvement in 2019 based on his body of work.  

 

He's easy to defend, isn't consistent and will lose snaps to the other guys who are more reliable.  

 

But you can still have faith.  

 

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2 hours ago, Logic said:

This is why I love Bills fans. 

A 38-page thread about a third year wide receiver.

What could still be being discussed on page 38 that hasn't been covered already?

Crikey!

If I were to guess, it’s about 1/3 content, 1/3 bickering and 1/3 people complaining that the thread even exists. (That is the usual for a thread this size)

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This thread is just nuts - it goes from extreme to extreme and then small pockets of actual good dialogue.

 

I really only have one point to make in this thread and I think it will bear seeing the other players in camp, but I believe Zay makes the team mostly because of position flexibility.

 

Zay has played outside as both the 1 & 2 receiver (not great, but he has experience against both the top and second corners).  He also has played some slot roles.  I think this gives him a huge advantage in making the final roster because he can fill in at multiple spots and that is harder for a guy like Ray Ray or McKenzie or other guys mentioned to replace him.

 

Sills and Duke Williams will be interesting because they bring some similar play, but not everything either - so they have to really show something to take his spot - bring something no one else can bring.

 

I really believe the team is looking at roles and what each player can do.  You have Brown and Foster really outside and Beasley in the slot.  If Zay can sort of move around - it allows you to change formations and also give breathers or pull injured players and keep most things the same.  

 

I see a lot of other guys that can fill one or 2 spots, but I think Zay has the most flexibility overall.

 

That is my opinion - I think he has a good shot at making the roster and having a totally average year and the coaching staff being fine with that if it is helping them win.  He is a good complementary piece that can give you enough help to be useful, but do not expect him to be your #1 - that just is not going to work.

Edited by Rochesterfan
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3 hours ago, Logic said:

This is why I love Bills fans. 

A 38-page thread about a third year wide receiver.

What could still be being discussed on page 38 that hasn't been covered already?

Crikey!

How ripped he looks?

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2 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

This thread is just nuts - it goes from extreme to extreme and then small pockets of actual good dialogue.

 

I really only have one point to make in this thread and I think it will bear seeing the other players in camp, but I believe Zay makes the team mostly because of position flexibility.

 

Zay has played outside as both the 1 & 2 receiver (not great, but he has experience against both the top and second corners).  He also has played some slot roles.  I think this gives him a huge advantage in making the final roster because he can fill in at multiple spots and that is harder for a guy like Ray Ray or McKenzie or other guys mentioned to replace him.

 

Sills and Duke Williams will be interesting because they bring some similar play, but not everything either - so that have to really show something to take his spot - bring something no one else can bring.

 

I really believe the team is looking at roles and what each player can do.  You have Brown and Foster really outside and Beasley in the slot.  If Zay can sort of move around - it allows you to change formations and also give breathers or pull injured players and keep most things the same.  

 

I see a lot of other guys that can fill one or 2 spots, but I think Zay has the most flexibility overall.

 

That is my opinion - I think he has a good shot at making the roster and having a totally average year and the coaching staff being fine with that if it is helping them win.  He is a good complementary piece that can give you enough help to be useful, but do not expect him to be your #1 - that just is not going to work.

Really good point. McBeane love that flexibility.  And it isn't theoretical - he has actually played all over.  With Duke and Sills, it's just guys who MIGHT be able do what Zay has done. 

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4 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

This thread is just nuts - it goes from extreme to extreme and then small pockets of actual good dialogue.

 

I really only have one point to make in this thread and I think it will bear seeing the other players in camp, but I believe Zay makes the team mostly because of position flexibility.

 

Zay has played outside as both the 1 & 2 receiver (not great, but he has experience against both the top and second corners).  He also has played some slot roles.  I think this gives him a huge advantage in making the final roster because he can fill in at multiple spots and that is harder for a guy like Ray Ray or McKenzie or other guys mentioned to replace him.

 

Sills and Duke Williams will be interesting because they bring some similar play, but not everything either - so that have to really show something to take his spot - bring something no one else can bring.

 

I really believe the team is looking at roles and what each player can do.  You have Brown and Foster really outside and Beasley in the slot.  If Zay can sort of move around - it allows you to change formations and also give breathers or pull injured players and keep most things the same.  

 

I see a lot of other guys that can fill one or 2 spots, but I think Zay has the most flexibility overall.

 

That is my opinion - I think he has a good shot at making the roster and having a totally average year and the coaching staff being fine with that if it is helping them win.  He is a good complementary piece that can give you enough help to be useful, but do not expect him to be your #1 - that just is not going to work.

 

You make valid points but there's one more aspect.

 

Unless McDermott and Beane learned nothing from last year, they have to bear in mind that what guys accomplish in preseason and what they can bring when it counts, aren't always the same. 

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7 hours ago, Logic said:

This is why I love Bills fans. 

A 38-page thread about a third year wide receiver.

What could still be being discussed on page 38 that hasn't been covered already?

Crikey!

 

I clicked on the last page to see if the OP changed his mind... I couldn't find any evidence of it and I'm not willing to go backwards to see if he did... Does anybody know?

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7 hours ago, Logic said:

This is why I love Bills fans. 

A 38-page thread about a third year wide receiver.

What could still be being discussed on page 38 that hasn't been covered already?

Crikey!

 

For the most part the same three or four arguments get regurgitated a number of times becuase people jump into the thread and share their opinion without reading what's already been written. 

 

Cliffs notes:

Zay may not make the roster

He is a jag with no special skills

He cant catch

but he only had three drops 

he has nice abs

eric Moulds though

zay stats improved

but they were in garbage time

zay sucks

but Stevie Johnson though

 

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7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I would argue 25 and 26 are a receiver's prime now. It is kinda 25-27 rather than 28-30. Guys are coming into the league younger, starting younger... it is just different. That said Stevie was a very specific fit here. He was a #2 anywhere else but produced at a sort of 1B level here in the Chan offense. 

 

It was due to his connection to Fritz.  Both came onto roster as backups and Stevie had a type of vision to find a way to get to a hole going off plan.  Fritz was able to make the adjustment to Stevie's view and get to him ball in place that was not on route.  When Stevie lost that connection he was no longer a 1B QB.

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2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Really good point. McBeane love that flexibility.  And it isn't theoretical - he has actually played all over.  With Duke and Sills, it's just guys who MIGHT be able do what Zay has done. 

 

What has Zay done? If their upside is guys who might be able to do what Zay has done, then cut them. This coaching staff values ST so much they should be finding a Marcus Easley then. Zay has played all over, but below average all over. Being below average all over is not a positive skill set. It's being flat out bad or completely misused.

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5 minutes ago, HuSeYiN_NYC said:

 

I clicked on the last page to see if the OP changed his mind... I couldn't find any evidence of it and I'm not willing to go backwards to see if he did... Does anybody know?

 

I do not think he has. There is no valid argument against his point. Just cherry picking stats and saying Moulds had a bad first two years, which has nothing to do with Zay. People talk about his statistcal improvement, the majority of which came when games didn't matter. The best argument is that he was a second round pick and will have a longer lease. But anybody looking at it without bias can see that he is not good. 

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7 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

You make valid points but there's one more aspect.

 

Unless McDermott and Beane learned nothing from last year, they have to bear in mind that what guys accomplish in preseason and what they can bring when it counts, aren't always the same. 

 

Agreed - all the more likely he makes the final roster as Zay has done it during the NFL season.

 

His age also helps - Zay is still young - so It is not like you are passing on a young UDFA for a mediocre 30+ year old veteran, but you have youth and experience rolled into Zay.

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9 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

For the most part the same three or four arguments get regurgitated a number of times becuase people jump into the thread and share their opinion without reading what's already been written. 

 

Cliffs notes:

Zay may not make the roster

He is a jag with no special skills

He cant catch

but he only had three drops 

he has nice abs

eric Moulds though

zay stats improved

but they were in garbage time

zay sucks

but Stevie Johnson though

 

Nice, but you left out Duke Williams.  And Foster's emergence as a Hall of Famer.  

 

Oh, and Allen's accuracy.  

 

Seriously, no one should expect that people read all the posts before posting their own thoughts.   A thread is a conversation; when you're talking with a group of people and someone joins late, that person often will repeat things people said earlier, before he arrived.  No one tells him to stop because we already talked about that.  It is, as you say, just people jumping in and out of a conversation.  

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10 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

For the most part the same three or four arguments get regurgitated a number of times becuase people jump into the thread and share their opinion without reading what's already been written. 

 

Cliffs notes:

Zay may not make the roster

He is a jag with no special skills

He cant catch

but he only had three drops 

he has nice abs

eric Moulds though

zay stats improved

but they were in garbage time

zay sucks

but Stevie Johnson though

 

 

Pretty much omitted all the positive arguments for Zay

 

9 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

I do not think he has. There is no valid argument against his point. Just cherry picking stats and saying Moulds had a bad first two years, which has nothing to do with Zay. People talk about his statistcal improvement, the majority of which came when games didn't matter. The best argument is that he was a second round pick and will have a longer lease. But anybody looking at it without bias can see that he is not good. 

 

Ah, this explains it then.  Read with deep bias, find only viewpoints that reinforce it.

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22 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Pretty much omitted all the positive arguments for Zay

 

 

Ah, this explains it then.  Read with deep bias, find only viewpoints that reinforce it.

 

Definitely! this is true on both sides imo. I was trying to be clever. 

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10 hours ago, Ol Dirty B said:

 

What has Zay done? If their upside is guys who might be able to do what Zay has done, then cut them. This coaching staff values ST so much they should be finding a Marcus Easley then. Zay has played all over, but below average all over. Being below average all over is not a positive skill set. It's being flat out bad or completely misused.

I'm one who agrees with the OP that Zay could be gone, but I think it's just a reasonable possibility.   If it happens it won't mean Zay is bad, just that some others are better. 

 

What has he done? As someone else pointed out, he has played all three wideout positions and had decent success.  Not great but decent.  So he knows and can perform in the system the Bills run.  Brown and Beasley, being vets, should be able to get up that learning curve.  Williams and the rookies start pretty far behind Zay.  Foster is behind him too.  So although I think Zay's upside is more limited than some of those others, he is more likely to perform adequately while the team figures out over the entire season whether any of the others can deliver on game day.  I share Hap's view in that regard.

 

If Zay isn't on the roster to start the season it will be because others have better upside, Foster or someone else emerged as the number 3, AND as the number 4 Zay's experience and versatility just isn't that important. If Zay is not on the roster for those reasons, that's a good thing for the Bills, because that will mean two guys, like Williams and Sills, both have demonstrated better upside than Zay, plus Foster progressing.

 

From my point of view, Zay on the team isn't a bad outcome, Zay not on the team is better.  

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But just to add, I don't really understand the positive arguments for Zay.

 

Most people are saying Eric Moulds took a while to develop so we need to give Zay time. This is a meaningless comparison. 

 

Other are saying he showed great improvement statistically. This is also meaningless. Stats came in garbage time and stats are just stats. Turds like Charles Johnson and Ashley Lelie had 1000 yard seasons. The numbers didn't tell you they sucked. (see I can cherry pick too) 

 

I don't think either if those arguments are really valid. Both are reaching. The only positive, and I have argued this in the thread on Zay's behalf, is that he showed tremendous potential in college and he hasn't shown any of that in the NFL. So I believe there may be some untapped talent there. His highlight film in college he looks like a completely different guy. 

 

Arguments against is that so far in his career: he has trouble catching the ball (which is the main part of his job), he gets no separation, has no RAC ability, has no ability to make contested catches, and cannot be counted on when the games count. To me that is the eye test, it is what he has actually shown the the field. And that is the big fat turd burger. Nobody can argue against these points. They are facts. 

Edited by MrEpsYtown
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15 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Definitely! this is true on both sides imo. I was trying to be clever. 

 

I'm not so sure "both sides" is accurate, but let that go.

 

I'm waiting to see the stats that demonstrate " People talk about his statistical improvement, the majority of which came when games didn't matter. "

-What does "when games didn't matter" even mean?

-Where are the stats that support this point of view?

I can look up player splits with the best of 'em, and I can't find 'em, but perhaps the problem lies with understanding the definition of "when games didn't matter".

 

 

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