The Death of the New Era of Running QBs Has Been Greatly Exaggerated

[The Frankish Reich]

Today:  Ravens leading the Browns late. 296 yards on the ground, including 92 from Lamar Jackson; offense is just plain better than it was with Flacco, and yes, the running game in general (even other ballcarriers) is better with Jackson opening things up.  Josh Allen: 95 yards rushing; Bills 42 points.

Just a couple seasons ago, we were being told that the Kaepernicks and Vicks of recent years were now a thing of the past, and that pocket passers are the future. Not so fast!  On the homefront, my biggest takeaway from Josh Allen's rookie campaign is this: very effective when he doesn't hesitate to run; very ineffective when he tries to be a pocket passer.  Set Josh free!

[SoCal Deek]

My takeaway is that Josh must've always been the biggest, fastest kid on the field growing up...but this is the NFL.  While super fun to watch, it'll end up getting him seriously injured in 2019.

[PlayoffsPlease]

2 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

My takeaway is that Josh must've always been the biggest, fastest kid on the field growing up...but this is the NFL.  While super fun to watch, it'll end up getting him seriously injured in 2019.

His worst hits have been when he stayed in the bills version of a pocket. 

[BillsVet]

Quick: Name a running QB who has perennially led his team to the playoffs. 

 

This off-season opposing DC’s will study the running QBs and figure out ways to force them to play from the pocket.  Allen’s future and that of other running QBs will be decided on how they throw the ball. 

[The Frankish Reich]

7 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

My takeaway is that Josh must've always been the biggest, fastest kid on the field growing up...but this is the NFL.  While super fun to watch, it'll end up getting him seriously injured in 2019.

I wish every great athlete could somehow also turn into Tom Brady, Elite Pocket Passer. But they can't. So I'm willing to take my chances with Josh Allen as a kind of Kaepernick 2.0. He's electric when running, whether it results in a pass downfield or a run. Not every Allen can become a Brady or Rodgers (a kind of restrained runner), but it's just as true that not every Bortles can become a Josh Allen. And there's always the Russell Wilson example to fall back on regarding fear of injury ...

3 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

Quick: Name a running QB who has perennially led his team to the playoffs. 

 

This off-season opposing DC’s will study the running QBs and figure out ways to force them to play from the pocket.  Allen’s future and that of other running QBs will be decided on how they throw the ball. 

It's kind of far away, like almost in that far-flung part of Canada or something, but I've heard of a young man who plays QB in Seattle who seems to fit the bill.

 

					Games		Rushing							Receiving									Total Yds
Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Rush	Yds	TD	Lng	Y/A	Y/G	A/G	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	Lng	R/G	Y/G	Ctch%	Touch	Y/Tch	YScm	RRTD	Fmb
2012*	24	SEA	QB	3	16	16	94	489	4	25	5.2	30.6	5.9										94	5.2	489	4	6
2013*	25	SEA	QB	3	16	16	96	539	1	27	5.6	33.7	6.0										96	5.6	539	1	12
2014	26	SEA	QB	3	16	16	118	849	6	55	7.2	53.1	7.4	1	1	17	17.0	0	17	0.1	1.1	100.0%	119	7.3	866	6	13
2015*	27	SEA	QB	3	16	16	103	553	1	24	5.4	34.6	6.4										103	5.4	553	1	7
2016	28	SEA	QB	3	16	16	72	259	1	18	3.6	16.2	4.5	2	2	14	7.0	1	15	0.1	0.9	100.0%	74	3.7	273	2	8
2017*	29	SEA	QB	3	16	16	95	586	3	31	6.2	36.6	5.9

Edited December 31, 2018 by The Frankish Reich

[BillsVet]

18 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

I wish every great athlete could somehow also turn into Tom Brady, Elite Pocket Passer. But they can't. So I'm willing to take my chances with Josh Allen as a kind of Kaepernick 2.0. He's electric when running, whether it results in a pass downfield or a run. Not every Allen can become a Brady or Rodgers (a kind of restrained runner), but it's just as true that not every Bortles can become a Josh Allen. And there's always the Russell Wilson example to fall back on regarding fear of injury ...

It's kind of far away, like almost in that far-flung part of Canada or something, but I've heard of a young man who plays QB in Seattle who seems to fit the bill.

 

					Games		Rushing							Receiving									Total Yds
Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Rush	Yds	TD	Lng	Y/A	Y/G	A/G	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	Lng	R/G	Y/G	Ctch%	Touch	Y/Tch	YScm	RRTD	Fmb
2012*	24	SEA	QB	3	16	16	94	489	4	25	5.2	30.6	5.9										94	5.2	489	4	6
2013*	25	SEA	QB	3	16	16	96	539	1	27	5.6	33.7	6.0										96	5.6	539	1	12
2014	26	SEA	QB	3	16	16	118	849	6	55	7.2	53.1	7.4	1	1	17	17.0	0	17	0.1	1.1	100.0%	119	7.3	866	6	13
2015*	27	SEA	QB	3	16	16	103	553	1	24	5.4	34.6	6.4										103	5.4	553	1	7
2016	28	SEA	QB	3	16	16	72	259	1	18	3.6	16.2	4.5	2	2	14	7.0	1	15	0.1	0.9	100.0%	74	3.7	273	2	8
2017*	29	SEA	QB	3	16	16	95	586	3	31	6.2	36.6	5.9

 

Wilson is the only one of his kind and OC's struggle (ask Darrell Bevell) to game-plan with him.  Wilson's game is dependent on moving around regardless of the play-call:

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2017/12/13/russell-wilson-seattle-seahawks-mvp-darrell-bevell

 

Meanwhile, classic drop-back QBs are the most likely path to winning each year.  

[BillsFanSD]

29 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

Quick: Name a running QB who has perennially led his team to the playoffs. 

John Elway and Steve Young.

[JMF2006]

28 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

Quick: Name a running QB who has perennially led his team to the playoffs. 

 

This off-season opposing DC’s will study the running QBs and figure out ways to force them to play from the pocket.  Allen’s future and that of other running QBs will be decided on how they throw the ball. 

 

Brett Favre and Fran Tarkenton come to mind.

 

The thing is JA can play from the pocket but if you go man to man you better have your head on a swivel.

 

[/dev/null]

1 minute ago, BillsFanSD said:

John Elway and Steve Young.

In 1987 John Elway rushed for 304 yards

In 1992 Steve Young rushed for 537

 

In 11 games Josh Allen rushed for 536

 

Elway and Young weren't running QBs.  They were mobile QBs

[BillsVet]

2 minutes ago, JMF2006 said:

 

Brett Favre and Fran Tarkenton come to mind.

 

The thing is JA can play from the pocket but if you go man to man you better have your head on a swivel.

 

 

Fran Tarkenton played literally decades ago. What he did in the 60s and 70s isn't relevant to 2018.  Favre, OTOH, made plays with his arm and never rushed for more than 220 yards in a season. 

[Maine-iac]

53 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

Quick: Name a running QB who has perennially led his team to the playoffs. 

 

This off-season opposing DC’s will study the running QBs and figure out ways to force them to play from the pocket.  Allen’s future and that of other running QBs will be decided on how they throw the ball. 

McNabb, McNair, Rogers,  Luck, Vick, Brunell, Cunningham, Smith, Elway, and Young.  I'm sure I'm missing several.  A QB's success has so much to do with his surroundings.  A good OC, defense, and an ability to make throws at clutch times can make all the difference between winners and losers.  The pairing of Jackson and the offense in Baltimore works because of the coaching staff in Baltimore.  So much of thier staff is built up of proven option and RPO type offensive coaching that working Jackson in is easy.  McNair and McNabb are two of the best examples of running QB's who were very successful.  They got better in the pocket over time but both were still very capable at breaking the pocket throughtout their careers.

[row_33]

41 minutes ago, /dev/null said:

In 1987 John Elway rushed for 304 yards

In 1992 Steve Young rushed for 537

 

In 11 games Josh Allen rushed for 536

 

Elway and Young weren't running QBs.  They were mobile QBs

 

Young ran all the time

 

Elway and Marino wisely refused to run

 

 

2 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

McNabb, McNair, Rogers,  Luck, Vick, Brunell, Cunningham, Smith, Elway, and Young.  I'm sure I'm missing several.  A QB's success has so much to do with his surroundings.  A good OC, defense, and an ability to make throws at clutch times can make all the difference between winners and losers.  The pairing of Jackson and the offense in Baltimore works because of the coaching staff in Baltimore.  So much of thier staff is built up of proven option and RPO type offensive coaching that working Jackson in is easy.  McNair and McNabb are two of the best examples of running QB's who were very successful.  They got better in the pocket over time but both were still very capable at breaking the pocket throughtout their careers.

 

Fran Tarkenton was one of the greatest scrambling QBs

 

[JerseyBills]

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

My takeaway is that Josh must've always been the biggest, fastest kid on the field growing up...but this is the NFL.  While super fun to watch, it'll end up getting him seriously injured in 2019.

Idk man. He's still the biggest and close to fastest besides the DL . Teams just can't contain him on the ground . The only hit I didn't like on a day he ran for 90 something and 2 TD was illegal. I think we have to utilize his legs , no other QB can run like that and throw to anywhere on the field.

[oldmanfan]

As long as he gets down and slides quicker no reason to take the run game away from him

[cgg716]

1 hour ago, BillsVet said:

Quick: Name a running QB who has perennially led his team to the playoffs. 

 

This off-season opposing DC’s will study the running QBs and figure out ways to force them to play from the pocket.  Allen’s future and that of other running QBs will be decided on how they throw the ball. 

Kapernick, Vick, Newton. It’s very possible, though I tend to agree not sustainable. Though to be fair, Newton has gotten worse since toning down the running. Ideal scenario for us is Allen to be a bit like Big Ben.. he’s got the arm and size, just needs to use that mobility to extend plays. Give him a better line and a few weapons and I think we can head in that direction 

[The Frankish Reich]

49 minutes ago, /dev/null said:

In 1987 John Elway rushed for 304 yards

In 1992 Steve Young rushed for 537

 

In 11 games Josh Allen rushed for 536

 

Elway and Young weren't running QBs.  They were mobile QBs

Correct re: Elway. Not correct re: Young!  It wasn't that apparent because his early years were in the USFL, but he was criticized widely for thinking "run first." And he ran a fair amount in his early NFL years. As he go more fully indoctrinated in the Walsh system, he became more of a "mobile QB" than a "running QB." That's a normal progression if the QB is smart and willing to adapt. But my point here: right now, Allen succeeds because he's a running QB; at this stage of his development, he's not much of a threat if you take the run away.

[RalphWilson'sNewWar]

there will most definitely come a point in 2019 when numerous fans. Angrily ask, “why isn’t Allen Running that much anymore.”

 

it will be this weird effect that by getting more mature with a better team around him...Allen will feel the need to trust his arm more, the pockets will be cleaner and hopefully the game will slow down...and then he will throw it instead of sprinting.  And strangely the odds of it being a 30 yard td pass will be less than the run.

 

thats when fans will be like “he was more effective when he ran!”

Edited December 31, 2018 by RalphWilson'sNewWar

[whatdrought]

Is there a distinction here between run first QB's, and QB's who can run? 

 

Because the example of Wilson falls apart because he is such a great thrower as well. Vick is close to the only QB who had consistent success as a run first QB, but even then, he could still throw the ball extremely well. 

 

QB's that run are not that rare and are a great piece, if they stay healthy. 

 

Run first QB's are not usually successful as they are eventually forced to beat a team with their arm and a lot of them fall short (Kapernick, Taylor, Tebow, etc). 

 

Jackson didn't win the game for the Ravens today. When the Browns keyed in on his running they started coming back and then that last drive when the Ravens could have put it away, it ended up being a disaster. There was no fear from the Browns to stacking the box and forcing Jackson to throw. The defense bailed him out, but they were closer than it should have been. 

 

Not to say that Jackson can't become more successful, but that model that they are employing now only works because of a great line, and a phenomenal defense. I hope it keeps working for them if it means they can beat New England. 

[KD in CA]

4 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

Is there a distinction here between run first QB's, and QB's who can run? 

 

 

Apparently not in this thread.  Elway and Favre were running QBs??   

 

BillsVet nailed it above.  It's nice as a compliment, but DCs will force Allen and Jackson to beat them from the pocket.

[whatdrought]

1 minute ago, KD in CA said:

 

Apparently not in this thread.  Elway and Favre were running QBs??   

 

BillsVet nailed it above.  It's nice as a compliment, but DCs will force Allen and Jackson to beat them from the pocket.

 

The nice thing is that Allen's big runs seem to come off of broken passing plays. That touchdown run today was all about the D protecting against the pass and leaving it open to him. 

I would consider him a QB that runs, rather than a run first QB. Jackson is definitely a run first QB and the playoffs will likely expose that. 

[Boatdrinks]

While plays will still have to be made from the pocket, the NFL game is changing . It’s becoming more college like. QBs are now a “ protected class”. The added weapon of mobility will remain a pert of these QBs games. Can’t just look at the past without acknowledging the rules changes. Unlike RG 3, who was too slightly built and actually ran too much these guys can make the required plays from the pocket. Fans just have to adjust to watching the game differently because those involved in the game are coaching/ playing it differently to suit the times. 

Edited December 31, 2018 by Boatdrinks

[CLTbills]

2 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Today:  Ravens leading the Browns late. 296 yards on the ground, including 92 from Lamar Jackson; offense is just plain better than it was with Flacco, and yes, the running game in general (even other ballcarriers) is better with Jackson opening things up.  Josh Allen: 95 yards rushing; Bills 42 points.

Just a couple seasons ago, we were being told that the Kaepernicks and Vicks of recent years were now a thing of the past, and that pocket passers are the future. Not so fast!  On the homefront, my biggest takeaway from Josh Allen's rookie campaign is this: very effective when he doesn't hesitate to run; very ineffective when he tries to be a pocket passer.  Set Josh free!

What I love about Josh, though, is that he CAN do either... which makes him more lethal. We had a running QB in Tyrod, but he couldn't throw the ball. I think we can ALL agree on then difference in on-field results.

 

the other thing I like (and you saw it today on his long TD run) is that he doesn't throw it just for the sake of throwing it. If he's got a guy open for a ten yard gain, but he knows he can get 15 with his legs, he'll take the 15 every time. Clay was open for a big gain but he saw a shot to score. He doesn't just force a throw because he's "supposed to." The fact that he can be so lethal with his arm makes his running game even more efficient.

Edited December 31, 2018 by CLTbills

[The Frankish Reich]

Just now, CLTbills said:

What I love about Josh, though, is that he CAN do either... which makes him more lethal. We had a running QB in Tyrod, but he couldn't throw the ball.

 

the other thing I like (and you saw it today on his long TD run) is that he doesn't throw it just for the sake of throwing it. If he's to a guy open for a ten yard gain, but he knows he can get 15 with his legs, he'll take the 15 every time. He doesn't just force a throw because he's "supposed to." The fact that he can be so lethal with his arm makes his running game even more efficient.

I do think it's a normal progression. For a guy like Allen - tons of athletic ability, very little experience (not even high level college experience) - it's natural for him to want to improvise and let his pure gifts shine. He has extreme confidence in his ability to make something out of nothing. The hope is with experience - and a more talented/better designed offense around him - he'll go the way of Steve Young or John Elway or certain phases of Russell Wilson, playing in a more structured, less improvisational manner. I'm reasonably confident that it'll happen, but for now, I think the best Allen is the freelancing Allen, and I think that will remain true at least for next year too. Part of me wants him to play without any constraints next year because I think the good will outweigh the bad.

[CLTbills]

1 minute ago, The Frankish Reich said:

I do think it's a normal progression. For a guy like Allen - tons of athletic ability, very little experience (not even high level college experience) - it's natural for him to want to improvise and let his pure gifts shine. He has extreme confidence in his ability to make something out of nothing. The hope is with experience - and a more talented/better designed offense around him - he'll go the way of Steve Young or John Elway or certain phases of Russell Wilson, playing in a more structured, less improvisational manner. I'm reasonably confident that it'll happen, but for now, I think the best Allen is the freelancing Allen, and I think that will remain true at least for next year too. Part of me wants him to play without any constraints next year because I think the good will outweigh the bad.

Well that's kind of what I mean. Everybody WANTS him to be a pocket passer... but he doesn't become one just because he's supposed to. He's going to make the biggest play that he can make, no matter how he has to do it. I agree with you 100% though.

[CincyBillsFan]

21 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

While plays will still have to be made from the pocket, the NFL game is changing . It’s becoming more college like. QBs are now a “ protected class”. The added weapon of mobility wills remain a pert of these QBs games. Can’t just look at the past without acknowledging the rules changes. Unlike RG 3, who was too slight and actually ran too much these guys can make the required plays from the pocket. Fans just have to adjust to watching the game differently because those involved in the game are coaching/ playing it differently to suit the times. 

I think you're on to something here.  The NFL has copied the college games spread offensive attack but have left out a key ingredient - the QB who can both pass AND run.   That combined with the new targeting rules means that it may now be possible for a QB to be productive on the ground, stay healthy and still be an effective passer.  IMO Allen has this potential. 

 

It means that the QB of the future may not need to hit 70% of their passes to be elite.  He may need to be able to run for 75 - 90 yards in a game while completing 55% of his passes.  The new QB metrics that define how good a QB is might be passing TD's, rushing TD's, passing yards, rushing yards and yards per completion and fumbles lost/INT's thrown. 

 

 

[The Frankish Reich]

As far as injury risk goes, there's also a rethinking of things regarding pocket passers vs. mobile or running QBs. Major QB injuries the last few years include Teddy Bridgewater (pocket passer, non-contact injury), Joe Flacco (same), Bradford (same), Deshaun Watson (running QB, but non-contact injury), Wentz (mobile QB, non-contact injury this year, but injured on a hit while running last year if I remember correctly), Alex Smith (mobile, but injured while trying to avoid a big rush up the middle), Mariota (running QB, but shoulder injury I believe started with a sack in the pocket ... correct me if I'm wrong), Garoppolo (mobile, injury happened on a run but was non-contact); Tannehill (running QB, or at least "mobile," but injuries were on non-contact plays). Meanwhile Russell Wilson hasn't missed a start in his NFL career.

I'm not saying running isn't dangerous. It can be. But the idea that a mobile QB, or even a flat-out run-happy QB is significantly more likely to suffer a major injury just doesn't seem to be supported by recent history. A lot of this may, of course, have to do with rule changes of the sort that made Kiko's hit today illegal.

Edited December 31, 2018 by The Frankish Reich

[row_33]

2 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Correct re: Elway. Not correct re: Young!  It wasn't that apparent because his early years were in the USFL, but he was criticized widely for thinking "run first." And he ran a fair amount in his early NFL years. As he go more fully indoctrinated in the Walsh system, he became more of a "mobile QB" than a "running QB." That's a normal progression if the QB is smart and willing to adapt. But my point here: right now, Allen succeeds because he's a running QB; at this stage of his development, he's not much of a threat if you take the run away.

 

Young had one of the all time QB runs for a TD in NFL history, it wasn’t a shocker he pulled that off

 

Got a Burger King ad out of it

 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

As long as he gets down and slides quicker no reason to take the run game away from him

 

I think he has done a great job of protecting himself on his runs. The only time he takes a beating is when he is trying to score a TD. That's understandable when you are trying to make a play at the goal line. Otherwise he does a great job of sliding. He often slides early and gives up yards. Where he is getting killed at times is inside the pocket.

[The Frankish Reich]

1 hour ago, whatdrought said:

Is there a distinction here between run first QB's, and QB's who can run? 

 

Because the example of Wilson falls apart because he is such a great thrower as well. Vick is close to the only QB who had consistent success as a run first QB, but even then, he could still throw the ball extremely well. 

 

QB's that run are not that rare and are a great piece, if they stay healthy. 

 

Run first QB's are not usually successful as they are eventually forced to beat a team with their arm and a lot of them fall short (Kapernick, Taylor, Tebow, etc). 

 

Jackson didn't win the game for the Ravens today. When the Browns keyed in on his running they started coming back and then that last drive when the Ravens could have put it away, it ended up being a disaster. There was no fear from the Browns to stacking the box and forcing Jackson to throw. The defense bailed him out, but they were closer than it should have been. 

 

Not to say that Jackson can't become more successful, but that model that they are employing now only works because of a great line, and a phenomenal defense. I hope it keeps working for them if it means they can beat New England. 

Most of the great running QBs could throw and throw well. Vick had a fantastic arm. I have already pulled out the ancient example of Bobby Douglass as a Josh Allen type - cannon arm, fantastic runner. Kaep, of course, had that famous pitcher's fastball arm. The problem with all of the above was reading defenses .... and that will be what determines whether Allen become Kaepernick or, well, Favre? Cutler? Rodgers?

[Mark Vader]

2 hours ago, row_33 said:

 

Young ran all the time

 

Young would run as a last resort. I almost never saw designed running plays for Young.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

3 hours ago, /dev/null said:

In 1987 John Elway rushed for 304 yards

In 1992 Steve Young rushed for 537

 

In 11 games Josh Allen rushed for 536

 

Elway and Young weren't running QBs.  They were mobile QBs

 

I would categorize Allen as the same. He's only been running 9 times a game since he came back from the injury. Less actually because there are at least 5 kneel downs I think in that total. Compare that to Lamar Jackson who is running nearly twice as much as Allen. 

[row_33]

1 minute ago, Mark Vader said:

Young would run as a last resort. I almost never saw designed running plays for Young.

 

Sorry you missed his career, he loved to run, lots of great hi-lites.

 

 

[Mark Vader]

1 minute ago, row_33 said:

 

Sorry you missed his career, he loved to run, lots of great hi-lites.

 

 

I grew up watching 49'ers football on local television for years.

 

Young did like running, but he was a pass first quarterback. He ran only when he had to.

[BillsVet]

14 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Most of the great running QBs could throw and throw well. Vick had a fantastic arm. I have already pulled out the ancient example of Bobby Douglass as a Josh Allen type - cannon arm, fantastic runner. Kaep, of course, had that famous pitcher's fastball arm. The problem with all of the above was reading defenses .... and that will be what determines whether Allen become Kaepernick or, well, Favre? Cutler? Rodgers?

 

Bobby Douglass and Fran Tarkenton haven't played a NFL game in 40 years.  Whatever they did has no bearing on whether running QBs (whatever that is) works in 2018.  

 

Vick was on the winning side in a post-season game twice as a starting QB and not after his suspension.  His highest total for rushing was 2006, when Atlanta went 7-9.        

 

Every example you've cited in this thread has not been relevant to the modern NFL or proven that "running QBs" can win consistently.  Furthermore, Kaepernick and Vick were exposed because they were simply not accurate enough throwing the ball.  Defenses learned how to contain them.   

 

And besides, Kaepernick, Favre, Cutler, and Rodgers can never be lumped into the same group.  All were different type QBs.    

[CincyBillsFan]

On the topic of how a QB gets hurt am I the only one who was screaming at the TV telling Allen not to throw any more blocks?  I thought his attempts to impersonate O-linemen were by far his most dangerous plays.  And for the record he wasn't very good at it.