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CJ Beathard only has 3 more career starts than Josh Allen


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Shanahan has gotten the most out of every QB he has had at his disposal. You can look at the track record with Griffin, Cousins, Ryan, Garapolo, and Beathard. Allen doesn't have that on his side. 

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9 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

Where? What evidence is there that he is actually progressing?

 

There hasn't been any.

 

He's bailing out of the pocket faster and faster each game. He's not trusting his protection, and can't seem to get over his habit to run backwards from defenders which results in him walking into sacks (like the one Watt had on Sunday). 

 

On 3rd downs he rarely looks like he's even trying to read the defense. He's just dropping back, and looking at the linebackers trying to figure out how he can run for a 1st down.

 

As is the case with pretty much every project QB who "fixes" their issues during the draft process, he's slowly but surely reverting back to the guy he was at Wyoming who can't consistently operate from the pocket and has hardly any ability to read a defense. 

Edited by jrober38
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24 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

Where? What evidence is there that he is actually progressing?

From yesterday when I was asked the same question.  I went back and looked at each passing play of the first half.

 

Earlier I was asked to explain why I thought Allen showed progress today vs.  the Packers, his worst game.  So I've gone through passing plays from the game to see how I think he did.  My focus was how accurate he was and whether I felt he was making quicker decisions pre-snapand where to go with the ball. Was he decisive, did he make his read and get the ball out.  Things like that.  With that said,  here we go.  And I would love to have some feedback and discussion vs.  the "he sucks" kind of stuff.

 

1st quarter,

 

Drive 1

 1.  Horrible throw to Clay.  Not even close.  Just awful.

2.  Throw to McCoy.  Hung in pocket for a good amount of time, good escape, risky pass back across but his arm strength is an asset there

3.  2nd pass to Clay.  Decisive read and very accurate.

4.  Swing to Clay.  Again decisive, pass was a little low

5.  Benjamin:  long pass into double coverage. Threw it long.  Better long than short into the double coverage- I think he wanted to put it up high for Benjamin to go get but was too long

6.  Over the middle to Zay.  I think if Zay didn't get tackled it's completed.  Again made his read quickly and got the ball out.

 

Second Drive

 

1.  Went through progression to two guys, saw nothing, got yardage scrambling up the middle

2.  Sacked.  Looked at his first read and rush was getting to him.  Thought he might have had more time to maybe get to a second read but I didn't see a safety valve.  But did not try to spin out backwards or make an ill conceived desperation throw like against the Pack

 

Third Drive

 

1.  Quick out to Ray Ray.  Decisive and on target.  Gets criticized for not being accurate on short throws but was right on the money.

2.  Bullet to Clay.  Again decisive and right on target, fit between two defenders.

3.  Rushed by Watt.  Going backward threw to sideline for no gain.  Showed his arm strength but not a great decision, should have just thrown it away.

4.  Short pass to Clay.  Went through progression to second read.  Short no gain.  Not much to say.

5.  Sideline to James.  Low and outside where only Zay could get it.  Placement was the right idea but could have been a bit higher.  May also been a timing thing with Zay not getting to the spot quicker.

 

Fourth Drive.

 

1.  Quick out to Benjamin.  Again a decisive read and on target throw.

2.  Runs for first down but holding negated play.  Thought he locked into his first read too long.

3.  Sack by Watt.  Kept his head up looking for an open guy, eyes were not down looking for rushers as he's done sometimes.  Needed to sense it more and throw the ball away.

 

Fifth Drive:  the swing to Shady to close the half.  Nothing remarkable either way.

 

So looking at this half, when I say I saw improvement, I saw him being more decisive with the ball, which to me means his pre-snap thought process was improved.  He was generally more accurate, and while he should be with short throws that is one of the criticisms he gets.

 

Need to do the third quarter but have to make the birthday dinner for the daughter.  Would like to get others' thoughts.

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4 hours ago, twoandfourteen said:

 

Which should show you just how far behind the Bills actually are. 

 

The 49ers have a young QB they drafted in the 3rd round that is currently miles ahead of where the Bills 7th overall pick is -- and the 49ers still made a move to get even better at the position. 

Beathard has a full year of learning in the NFL ahead of Allen. That is considerable.

 

As for the 49'ers attempting to get better at the position.....They gave a five year $137.5 million contract with over $70 million guaranteed to a quarterback who has never played an entire season of NFL football.

 

We shall see how that works out.

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4 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

From yesterday when I was asked the same question.  I went back and looked at each passing play of the first half.

 

Earlier I was asked to explain why I thought Allen showed progress today vs.  the Packers, his worst game.  So I've gone through passing plays from the game to see how I think he did.  My focus was how accurate he was and whether I felt he was making quicker decisions pre-snapand where to go with the ball. Was he decisive, did he make his read and get the ball out.  Things like that.  With that said,  here we go.  And I would love to have some feedback and discussion vs.  the "he sucks" kind of stuff.

 

1st quarter,

 

Drive 1

 1.  Horrible throw to Clay.  Not even close.  Just awful.

2.  Throw to McCoy.  Hung in pocket for a good amount of time, good escape, risky pass back across but his arm strength is an asset there

3.  2nd pass to Clay.  Decisive read and very accurate.

4.  Swing to Clay.  Again decisive, pass was a little low

5.  Benjamin:  long pass into double coverage. Threw it long.  Better long than short into the double coverage- I think he wanted to put it up high for Benjamin to go get but was too long

6.  Over the middle to Zay.  I think if Zay didn't get tackled it's completed.  Again made his read quickly and got the ball out.

 

Second Drive

 

1.  Went through progression to two guys, saw nothing, got yardage scrambling up the middle

2.  Sacked.  Looked at his first read and rush was getting to him.  Thought he might have had more time to maybe get to a second read but I didn't see a safety valve.  But did not try to spin out backwards or make an ill conceived desperation throw like against the Pack

 

Third Drive

 

1.  Quick out to Ray Ray.  Decisive and on target.  Gets criticized for not being accurate on short throws but was right on the money.

2.  Bullet to Clay.  Again decisive and right on target, fit between two defenders.

3.  Rushed by Watt.  Going backward threw to sideline for no gain.  Showed his arm strength but not a great decision, should have just thrown it away.

4.  Short pass to Clay.  Went through progression to second read.  Short no gain.  Not much to say.

5.  Sideline to James.  Low and outside where only Zay could get it.  Placement was the right idea but could have been a bit higher.  May also been a timing thing with Zay not getting to the spot quicker.

 

Fourth Drive.

 

1.  Quick out to Benjamin.  Again a decisive read and on target throw.

2.  Runs for first down but holding negated play.  Thought he locked into his first read too long.

3.  Sack by Watt.  Kept his head up looking for an open guy, eyes were not down looking for rushers as he's done sometimes.  Needed to sense it more and throw the ball away.

 

Fifth Drive:  the swing to Shady to close the half.  Nothing remarkable either way.

 

So looking at this half, when I say I saw improvement, I saw him being more decisive with the ball, which to me means his pre-snap thought process was improved.  He was generally more accurate, and while he should be with short throws that is one of the criticisms he gets.

 

Need to do the third quarter but have to make the birthday dinner for the daughter.  Would like to get others' thoughts.

 

I think this method is flawed. I wouldn’t call it progress by comparing his worst game to a game where he was still bad but wasn’t a total tire fire. 

 

I see him still struggling with the same things now as when he first started. 

 

Would you say he’s regressing as a QB because he played significantly worse the week after the Vikings? 

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14 hours ago, jrober38 said:

Beathard looks great. 

 

He's got minimal talent but he knows how to play the game. 

That's the thing about immense amounts of raw talent. It gets you through youth sports, high school, and even college, making you look like a star. Then, when you get to the pros you have to actually learn how to play the game. I think this is a factor in what we are seeing with Allen. There are players who dominate the SEC on talent alone, so for Allen to do well in the Mountain West on pure skill and talent is not that surprising. The good news is, I do not think Allen is 100% raw talent who refuses to study, put in the work, or someone who cannot learn to play the game and use what he has at the NFL level (e.g. JaMarcus Russell, Vince Young, Charles Rogers, Dion Jordan, and others). It is going to take time, but I think he has both the intelligence and work ethic to, eventually, be able to utilize his talent at this level.

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8 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

I think this method is flawed. I wouldn’t call it progress by comparing his worst game to a game where he was still bad but wasn’t a total tire fire. 

 

I see him still struggling with the same things now as when he first started. 

 

Would you say he’s regressing as a QB because he played significantly worse the week after the Vikings? 

Of course you think it's flawed.  You have confirmation bias, I think.

 

When I watched the  game the first time I did so on DVR because I was tied up Sunday afternoon.  So I focused my attention on Allen, just to see how he'd look.  last night then after all the hullabaloo about how he's terrible, not progressing, etc., I went back and slow motioned through these plays.  I think if you objectively look at the plays on Sunday it is obvious he's done better than his bad game against the Pack.  He was much more decisive with the ball.  That may be because he's only getting one or two reads per play, but the ball was coming out quicker to be sure.  The other thing was accuracy especially on short throws and while his first pass was God awful there really wasn't any other throws that you could say were way off target.

 

The one throw he made that I thought was risky was when he tried to hit Zay in the corner of the end zone, and that ball could have been intercepted.  Shouldn't have thrown that, but it brings up another point that people make, which I think is flawed.  The idea that he has guys open all the time and doesn't see them.  That paly everyone was blanketed, and I saw a couple others where guys just weren't open.

 

Do like I did, go back and watch each play.  Watch objectively.

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14 hours ago, twoandfourteen said:

 

Look at his stats from his rookie year. 

 

That is what really is troubling.

 

CJB was competent out of the box. Meanwhile, JA has a lot of trouble executing a basic NFL passing play. 

 

Darnold, Mayfield, Rosen -- all of them have at least exhibited the ability to produce respectable passing production at this early stage in their careers. 200 yards seems impossible right now for Josh Allen.

 

 

Yeah, but Allen was a "project" meaning he was supposed to suck for several years before turning the corner and becoming an all time great. 

 

You clearly don't understand the process.

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2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Of course you think it's flawed.  You have confirmation bias, I think.

 

I don’t think you know what confirmation bias is if that’s what you’re getting from reading my post.

 

Saying a player is progressing and using the example you used is flawed. I would say the same thing if someone used your logic to show why he is regressing as a QB. 

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If CJB was so awesome, why did they trade for Jimmy G? So last season the 49ers had Garcon, Goodwin, Celek, Kittle, Hyde, and Juszczyk. All of them were productive in catching passes. Allen was not even supposed to be playing right now. If you want to blame the Bills for not having a better back up plan then fine but picking apart Allen because he struggles doesnt make sense. Everyone knew Allen needed development but when he is forced to play, everyone forgets about that and wants to see big passing yards. 

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21 minutes ago, DisplacedBillsFan said:

That's the thing about immense amounts of raw talent. It gets you through youth sports, high school, and even college, making you look like a star. Then, when you get to the pros you have to actually learn how to play the game. I think this is a factor in what we are seeing with Allen. There are players who dominate the SEC on talent alone, so for Allen to do well in the Mountain West on pure skill and talent is not that surprising. The good news is, I do not think Allen is 100% raw talent who refuses to study, put in the work, or someone who cannot learn to play the game and use what he has at the NFL level (e.g. JaMarcus Russell, Vince Young, Charles Rogers, Dion Jordan, and others). It is going to take time, but I think he has both the intelligence and work ethic to, eventually, be able to utilize his talent at this level.

 

My concern is that he's never been a star at any level of football. 


He was an unrecruited high school player, a mediocre JUCO QB, and a middle of the road QB in the Mountain West Conference.

 

As for work ethic, I think it's overrated at the NFL level because 99% of the QBs in the NFL have a great work ethic. Tim Tebow worked harder than anyone and he was one of the worst QBs to start in the NFL over the past 10 years. 

 

It's one thing to have talent, and it's another to have skill. Allen has tons of talent, but he's not skilled. He can throw a football 80 yards, but he can't consistently complete 5 yard passes for a whole host of reasons.

 

Maybe he'll work out. I don't think he will and that's based off the fact that all the guys drafted with Josh Allen's type of skill set and set of flaws haven't worked out in the NFL over the past 20 years, combined with the awful play I've witnessed from him as our QB so far. 

Edited by jrober38
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5 minutes ago, BillsfanAZ said:

If CJB was so awesome, why did they trade for Jimmy G? So last season the 49ers had Garcon, Goodwin, Celek, Kittle, Hyde, and Juszczyk. All of them were productive in catching passes. Allen was not even supposed to be playing right now. If you want to blame the Bills for not having a better back up plan then fine but picking apart Allen because he struggles doesnt make sense. Everyone knew Allen needed development but when he is forced to play, everyone forgets about that and wants to see big passing yards. 

Shhhh  You don't confuse them with facts 

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9 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

My concern is that he's never been a star at any level of football. 


He was an unrecruited high school player, a mediocre JUCO QB, and a middle of the road QB in the Mountain West Conference.

 

As for work ethic, I think it's overrated at the NFL level because 99% of the QBs in the NFL have a great work ethic. Tim Tebow worked harder than anyone and he was one of the worst QBs to start in the NFL over the past 10 years. 

 

It's one thing to have talent, and it's another to have skill. Allen has tons of talent, but he's not skilled. He can throw a football 80 yards, but he can't consistently complete 5 yard passes for a whole host of reasons.

 

Maybe he'll work out. I don't think he will and that's based off the fact that all the guys drafted with Josh Allen's type of skill set and set of flaws haven't worked out in the NFL over the past 20 years, combined with the awful play I've witnessed from him as our QB so far. 

 

He looks amazing on paper and in shorts as a prospect. Prototypical size, arm strength and athleticism. All the good stuff people drool over.

 

People love using the typical buzz words of “raw” and “high ceiling” which basically just means “he sucks but if the stars align and everything goes perfectly he might be really good”. The problem is that asking for that is unlikely even under the most ideal circumstances. I can’t imagine how unlikely it is when you surround him with such little talent at the skill positions and on the coaching staff.

 

McD and BB invested a lot to get him and are setting him up to fail. It’s probably what will get them fired.

Edited by Bangarang
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8 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

He looks amazing on paper and in shorts as a prospect. Prototypical size, arm strength and athleticism. 

 

People love using the typical buzz words of “raw” and “high ceiling” which basically just means “he sucks but if the stars align and everything goes perfectly he might be really good”. The problem is that asking for that is unlikely even the most ideal circumstances. I can’t imagine how unlikely it is when you surrounds him with such little talent at the skill positions and on the coaching staff.

 

McD and BB invested a lot to get him and are setting him up to fail. It’s probably what will get them fired.

 

Agreed.

 

When a QB is "raw", it just means that they're terrible on tape but have really good measureables. None of these guys ever go onto become quality NFL QBs.

 

EJ Manuel, JP Losman, Kyle Boller, Josh Freeman, Akili Smith, Vince Young, Paxton Lynch, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, etc. They were all "raw" QBs who were complete busts as 1st round picks.

 

The only projects who have had success were Joe Flacco coming out of Div 3, who had immediate success, and Pat Mahomes, who threw for a billion yards in college but needed to learn to operate out of a structured offense. I don't think Allen is comparable to either of them.

 

I think Allen's closest comps are Blaine Gabbert and Paxton Lynch. Big, strong, athletic QBs who can run around, who never put it all together in college and were colossal busts in the NFL.

 

EDIT

 

Pro days are the stupidest thing going. Every year I ask why anyone on earth gives a crap about watching a QB throw scripted throws in the most controlled environment you could possibly imagine.

 

What happens on an NFL field is pure chaos. It's the exact opposite of what happens at a pro day. There are 22 guys, all doing something different, and each of them plays a part in the success or failure of any given play.

 

I will never understand how watching a guy throw rehearsed passes at a pro day in shorts and a t shirt has any impact whatsoever on how that QB will perform when under live fire on a real NFL field. 

Edited by jrober38
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21 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

I don’t think you know what confirmation bias is if that’s what you’re getting from reading my post.

 

Saying a player is progressing and using the example you used is flawed. I would say the same thing if someone used your logic to show why he is regressing as a QB. 

How is my example flawed?  Please, go back like I did and watch the plays.  Then if you think it's flawed, explain why.

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1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

How is my example flawed?  Please, go back like I did and watch the plays.  Then if you think it's flawed, explain why.

 

I already explained why it’s flawed but I’ll try again and you can let me know if I’m not making it clear.

 

Your justification that he’s progressing is because you thought he played better against the Texans than he did the previous week against the Packers. I’m saying you need to take into account the entire body of work when trying to evaluate progress rather than simply going by a week to week basis like you did. Otherwise, one could counter your point and say he’s regressed badly because he was really bad against the Packers compared to his good performance the previous week against the Vikings.

 

 

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Every other starting quarterback in the NFL has better stats that Allen this year. You could argue that Allen is more talented than some of those quarterbacks. The problem is coaching and game planning. McDermott and staff are over their heads when it comes to building a NFL caliber offense.

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2 minutes ago, jkirchofer said:

Every other starting quarterback in the NFL has better stats that Allen this year. You could argue that Allen is more talented than some of those quarterbacks. The problem is coaching and game planning. McDermott and staff are over their heads when it comes to building a NFL caliber offense.

 

Allen is more talented than all of them.

 

The issue is that he's extremely unskilled. 

 

Who cares if you can throw a football 80 yards if you can't read a defense? 

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Just now, jrober38 said:

 

Allen is more talented than all of them.

 

The issue is that he's extremely unskilled. 

 

Who cares if you can throw a football 80 yards if you can't read a defense? 

They drafted him under the understanding that they would teach him to read a defense. They have not accomplished that goal. Nor have they built the game plan that allows him to grow. They play it safe and vanilla because that is all McDermott and Dabol are capable of doing. If this kid washes out of the NFL, it is their fault.

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10 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

I already explained why it’s flawed but I’ll try again and you can let me know if I’m not making it clear.

 

Your justification that he’s progressing is because you thought he played better against the Texans than he did the previous week against the Packers. I’m saying you need to take into account the entire body of work when trying to evaluate progress rather than simply going by a week to week basis like you did. Otherwise, one could counter your point and say he’s regressed badly because he was really bad against the Packers compared to his good performance the previous week against the Vikings.

 

 

I see where you're coming from now.  I would say he looks better in some ways even comparing to the Vikings game.  The things folks are getting on him about are his ability to get pre-snap reads and go to a guy quickly, his pocket presence, and his accuracy particularly on short passes.  I think he looked pretty good on all those Sunday.  Now, that may be because the plays are calling for less reads.  I don't know that; none of us would without knowing the play calls.  But on most of his drop backs Sunday he looked like he knew right where he wanted to go with the ball and delivered it.  That to me is progress.  Other than the horrible first pass he either was putting the ball right on guys, or missing where it was a smart miss and where defenders could not make a play on the ball. 

 

He still needs to hang in the pocket longer on some throws.  I think that will come with time.

 

If what you are saying is that progress can only be defined as being better week 1, vs 2, then 2, vs 3, and so on, I would disagree.  Young QB's will have ups and downs, good games and bad.  Mayfield for example had a tough day this past Sunday, but I would not say he regressed.  He just had a day that will happen with young QBs as they figure things out.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, jkirchofer said:

They drafted him under the understanding that they would teach him to read a defense. They have not accomplished that goal. Nor have they built the game plan that allows him to grow. They play it safe and vanilla because that is all McDermott and Dabol are capable of doing. If this kid washes out of the NFL, it is their fault.

 

When do raw QBs ever learn to read a defense once they get to the NFL?

 

Josh Allen's college game tape didn't lie. 

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2 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

When do raw QBs ever learn to read a defense once they get to the NFL?

 

Josh Allen's college game tape didn't lie. 

I don't know.  Terry Bradshaw?  Jim Kelly?  Carson Wentz?  Phil Simms?  Let's  make it simple - pretty much any QB that comes into the league.  They are all "raw" in terms of facing NFL defenses and their complexities.

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1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

If what you are saying is that progress can only be defined as being better week 1, vs 2, then 2, vs 3, and so on, I would disagree.  Young QB's will have ups and downs, good games and bad.  Mayfield for example had a tough day this past Sunday, but I would not say he regressed.  He just had a day that will happen with young QBs as they figure things out.

 

No, I’m not saying that progress can only be defined as something that is linear like that. I try not to look at it on a weekly basis though. However, I still think he’s struggling in all the same areas. Basically, I don’t expect to see much progression this year because of the situation he has been put in. 

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1 hour ago, jkirchofer said:

Every other starting quarterback in the NFL has better stats that Allen this year. You could argue that Allen is more talented than some of those quarterbacks. The problem is coaching and game planning. McDermott and staff are over their heads when it comes to building a NFL caliber offense.

 

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

 

When do raw QBs ever learn to read a defense once they get to the NFL?

 

Josh Allen's college game tape didn't lie. 

 

I do think coaching is sometimes underrated actually. Speaking about McDermott specifically, as a defensive coach, look at what he has been able to do with this defense. And, he has done it with a group that includes a lot of guys that would be called below average from a talent level. Of course, now some of them seem like stars, but go back and look at how upset people were the Poyer was our choice for a starting safety. Now everyone loves him because our coaching is getting the most out of him.

 

Tie this back to QBs, and for just one example, we'll use who seems like one of the ultimate QB gurus, or at least offensive minds, in Kyle Shanahan, and the QBs he has worked with.

 

2007 through 2009 - Houston Texans - In his first year as the Texans QB coach, Shanhan gets nearly 3900 yards passing and 24TDs out of Matt Schaub and Sage Rosenfels. We cannot really compare Schaub prior to this year, because he was mostly on the bench in ATL, but Schaub continued to produced mostly above average and even downright good (2009 - 4770 yards and 29TDs) good season, relying on Shanhan's coaching and development.

 

2010 - 2013 - Washington Redskins - An aging Donovan McNabb provided little production, and Rex Grossman was serviceable the following year, and Shanahan is then primarily credited with the development of both RGIII and Cousins. Remember, RGIII was once good, and his stats in 2012 read as 3200 yards, 20 TDs, 5 Ints. He had a similar season in 2013, though the interceptions increased. Cousins never got the chance to be the guy with Shanhan there, but did great during his limited playing time.

 

2015 and 2016 - Atlanta Falcons - Matt Ryan has always performed at a high level, but his only MVP season comes with Shanahan as the OC

 

2017 - Present - 49ers - Jimmy Garoppolo, who has a lot of hype but few stats, ends the season looking like the next great QB (After the trade with NE), and now we see Beathard, previously thought of as "not good", even in college he cause significant frustration during games with his play and decision making, playing at a high level. Even when Garoppolo went down, there were multiple analysts and writers that could not fathom how the 49ers were going to roll with Beathard. 

 

I guess what I'm saying with all of this is, yes, coaching absolutely does make a difference and is an issue for the Bills, and also yes, I do think Allen can learn to read a defense and can eventually be the guy that wins games for us, but man, we need that coaching for him, and right now, I believe superior offensive coaching is exactly what we do not have as part of this team.

Edited by DisplacedBillsFan
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1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

 

When do raw QBs ever learn to read a defense once they get to the NFL?

 

Josh Allen's college game tape didn't lie. 

So it's all a lost cause.

 

Josh Allen will never be successful in this league. Is that the bottom line?

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18 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

No, I’m not saying that progress can only be defined as something that is linear like that. I try not to look at it on a weekly basis though. However, I still think he’s struggling in all the same areas. Basically, I don’t expect to see much progression this year because of the situation he has been put in. 

I agree we won't see definitive progress till he has a better line and WR corps.  But I am seeing good signs of progress.

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3 hours ago, Bangarang said:

 

I think this method is flawed. I wouldn’t call it progress by comparing his worst game to a game where he was still bad but wasn’t a total tire fire. 

 

I see him still struggling with the same things now as when he first started. 

 

Would you say he’s regressing as a QB because he played significantly worse the week after the Vikings? 

When he first started - you mean a month ago?

1 hour ago, Chris66 said:

I would say Allen has progressed since minny game. He hasnt fumbled 3x in any game since.

Just can’t help yourself, can ya?

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