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Our Problem... Josh Allen Can't Win


Midwest1981

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22 minutes ago, Midwest1981 said:

... and not in the way you think.  In fact, it may have very little to do with him.  But it's his situation- THIS situation- that makes it inherently difficult for him, as well as the Bills.  Let me explain.  First of all, what I was afraid would happen if Peterman won the job HAS happened.  Not just "Joe" (largely informed) "Fan" but also the media- Colin Cowherd each of the last two days has corroborated this, to cite but one example- are snickering at Peterman starting because of the "five picks in one half" performance he may never live down.  And Peterman beating out Allen naturally leads to more snickers, "Wow, if Josh Allen can't even beat out Nathan Peterman"... Josh Allen can't win from the perspective that it was widely acknowledged leading up to the draft, even among Allen supporters, that he required patience.  But then when he's granted that patience it's not because he's not ready as much as it's perceived he'll never be ready, if he can't beat up the "abominable" likes of Nathan Peterman.

 

That's just one problem.

 

This is not a problem at all. Nobody cares what Colin Cowherd/National Media says. He said he was wrong about Josh Allen two weeks ago and he will be great. 

 

22 minutes ago, Midwest1981 said:

 

The other problem is... this is the NFL in 2018.  How patient are Bills fans- and the Bills themselves- willing to be?  I'm absolutely willing to be patient; Allen has demonstrated enough to make me believe that he isn't the fundamentally lost cause many summarily dismissed him as pre-draft... but the Bills' surrounding cast, skill position "weaponry" and especially our offensive line, has also demonstrated enough that they could really threaten to undo any of the progress Allen has made and have him running for his life, locking onto targets, suffering mechanically, and even suffering serious injury (we were all lucky he remained unscathed from preseason's week #3) if he's out there playing any time soon.

 

I understand that trading up for Allen/Edmunds cost of 5 of our top-65 picks.  But it was still inexcusable to do so little with our remaining draft capital- not until deep in day #3- to provide some offensive help for the highest QB we've ever taken.  Yes, I know that will be addressed in time, specifically next offseason.  But QB's don't get the same time now that they used to.

 

Yes, I'm willing to be patient.  But in the new CBA (signed 7 years ago)... QB's are MUCH easier to move on from than before- the financial commitment/entanglement is just no longer there.  We didn't sign Allen to a 6-year, $78 million dollar deal with $50 million guaranteed like Sam Bradford did in 2010 (or Stafford the year before... or Alex Smith four years before, who lasted 8 years in San Francisco despite atrocious early career play).  Remember the outcry by many when Doug Marrone benched E.J. Manuel after week #4 of just his sophomore season?  "You don't- you CAN'T- bench a QB after just 15-20 starts!?  He needs at least 30."  Well, we did, and other than a week 17 game in 2016 to spite Tyrod and the recently fired Rex Manuel never started another game.  

 

Just two years ago the Broncos traded up in the 1st-round to draft Paxton Lynch.  Well, a mere four starts later- those four starts were evidently enough- and he's not only not starting; he isn't even on Denver's roster.  There's also some consensus that 2016 #1 overall pick Jared Goff was another really bad year in 2017- if it resembled 2016- from quite possibly the Rams looking for the next guy.

 

I'm not saying that any of this is right- I'm just saying that it 'is,' at least how other teams have operated recently, given that the CBA allows teams to extricate out of lesser high 1st-round contracts and given irrationally impatient owners & fanbases.  I'm willing to give Allen the time he needs but Buffalo must be, too.  And unfortunately we don't have an Alex Smith having his best statistical season and leading the Chiefs to a divisional title to obscure that our rookie is sitting.  Instead we have Nathan Peterman and the jokes that follow.

 

Paxton Lynch? Josh Allen has shown more in one camp than Paxton Lynch in 3.

 

Being ranked 32 by the media...butt of the jokes.....wont change the fact that this team will still continue to make improvements and become a winning team. Like every other team in the NFL. Like....why does it matter. Theyll stop caring about those things when we produce a good football team.

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15 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

I have no idea what’s going on here. Can anyone explain it like I’m 5?

 

- The media doesn't believe in us (so?)

- Our O line sucks (this just in.)

- We didn't draft O line (but we did draft Allen and Edmunds!)

- We're not paying Allen much so we can move on from him like Denver did with Lynch or the Rams might do weigh Goff (not sure why we, or the Rams, would do that, but ok...)

 

Same thing, less words, with my commentary ??

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You've made a few points that have you concerned.  Let me try to make you feel better...

 

1.  It doesn't really matter what the media is saying today about Josh Allen as it relates to Nate Peterman winning the QB competition.  If Peterman can play as efficiently in real games as he did in the pre-season, then that story line will go away.  If Peterman throws 5 INT's in a half again, then Allen will take the field and write his own story.  The truth about Allen will reveal itself over time.  As Bill's fans, we got to see every Josh Allen throw in his first pre-season and there was  a lot to like.  I'm looking forward to the Josh Allen era, but will cheer for Peterman while he's wearing the Bill's uniform.

 

2.  The supporting cast on offense is not strong...  I want to make you feel better, but it's true that we have limited talent on offence.  Hopefully, Daboll is talented enough to compensate for that.

 

3.  The low financial commitments to rookies these days actually works in Allen's favor.  Because he is relatively cheap, the ideal scenario is to surround Allen with tremendous talent during his rookie contract (after wiping the Salary Cap slate clean after this year), like the Seahawks did with Russell Wilson.  I don't see how the limited investment in rookies reduces the commitment by the Bills in Allen.

 

There's no point worrying about what the media has to say.  They are paid to say something every day whether or not there is anything to say.  Our coach and GM have a plan that feels like a real rebuild.  We traded players for picks, and bundled picks to get Allen.  We sacrificed this year to clean up our salary cap mess, so that next season we have a franchise QB and a supporting cast to match.  Let the story play out and enjoy the ride.

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3 minutes ago, Midwest1981 said:

First of all, this isn't an anti-Allen angle at all.  He's shown enough for me, even if it hasn't been with and against the 1st's (at least beyond training camp), that he has some unique talent and is making strides.  I just hope that the Pegula's, and other Bills fans, are willing to truly live with the growing pains.

 

Rex wasn't given two full years.  That was the right move and- yes- breaking the Playoff drought built up a lot of cache and goodwill- but McBeane and Allen may require three full years (excluding last year).  Allen may not start this year and if he does the results may not be pretty, even if he's mostly absolved of blame because we haven't set him up well to immediately succeed.  Then next year the results should improve but it might be incremental- we could see modest improvement as it takes some time for a newly-configured offensive line to gell and for Allen to build rapport with new skill position players.

 

Even if things go well, it may not be until year #3 that we see what we all hope to.  That might be a 3/4 win 2018 followed by a 5-7 win 2019.

 

I said the other day in another thread I started that I'm not terribly worried about this season because it's fundamentally about Allen learning his craft and if he gets on the field gradually getting better.

 

But we must all be prepared to live with the likely growing pains, from ownership on down.

 

Fans are always going to be inpatient, and "we" dont have to do anything, it is up to ownership and McD if they are patient with him.

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26 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

I have no idea what’s going on here. Can anyone explain it like I’m 5?

It's basically another time killing thread about nothing, effectively functioning as filler until we play our first game and actually have topics to discuss.

 

:thumbsup:

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Considering Josh Allen's college tape, no one should be giving him the benefit of the doubt. 

 

He was an average, to below average college QB in a terrible conference. He was drafted solely off his potential and what he might become if every aspect of his development goes perfectly, and until he shows signs of that having happened, everyone is just going to assume he can't play, because at this point they're almost certainly right.

 

Josh Allen will win when he shows he can play QB at a high level in the NFL. Until that happens, people are going to assume he's terrible because pretty much every QB drafted over the last 20 years with the same pros and cons on their scouting report was an enormous bust. 

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12 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

 

Fans are always going to be inpatient, and "we" dont have to do anything, it is up to ownership and McD if they are patient with him.

As far as what "we have to do," I think you would agree that sometimes owners have their fanbases' ear and serve to placate them when the frustration reaches a fevered pitch, often in the form of dumping a coach in favor of another.  While I don't think that is going to happen here, if things are ugly not only this year but also in 2019- because the progress is more incremental than substantial- I can't guarantee it won't.  While I don't think it will and believe the Pegula's know this will take time, nobody really can.

 

That might place them in the minority with the rinse/repeat "2-3 years or you're done!" mentality that's infiltrated many front-offices as GM's & head coaches sometimes seem to act as revolving doors...

 

 

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1 minute ago, Midwest1981 said:

As far as what "we have to do," I think you would agree that sometimes owners have their fanbases' ear and serve to placate them when the frustration reaches a fevered pitch, often in the form of dumping a coach in favor of another.  While I don't think that is going to happen here, if things are ugly not only this year but also in 2019- because the progress is more incremental than substantial- I can't guarantee it won't.  While I don't think it will and believe the Pegula's know this will take time, nobody really can.

 

That might place them in the minority with the rinse/repeat "2-3 years or you're done!" mentality that's infiltrated many front-offices as GM's & head coaches sometimes seem to act as revolving doors...

 

 

Cue the Marv Levy quote, once a coach starts listening to the fans he wil end up sitting with them.

 

f Ralph were around i bet he would force the issue eventually, the Pegula's, I think they selected their HC/GM  team and will  not do anything this year.  If this drags into next season, then it should be addressed.

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28 minutes ago, Tatonka68 said:

Learning from the bench in an oxymoron. An idiotic neanderthal idea. Learn something by not doing it. How does that actually make sense to people? Allen played with a bad offensive line and bad receivers in Wyoming nothing new here. 

 

He has had about two months practicing with the team... you honestly think he can’t learn anything else over the next month or so before he starts ? He ain’t just going to be standing on the sidelines on game days during that time

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58 minutes ago, Midwest1981 said:

... and not in the way you think.  In fact, it may have very little to do with him.  But it's his situation- THIS situation- that makes it inherently difficult for him, as well as the Bills.  Let me explain.  First of all, what I was afraid would happen if Peterman won the job HAS happened.  Not just "Joe" (largely informed) "Fan" but also the media- Colin Cowherd each of the last two days has corroborated this, to cite but one example- are snickering at Peterman starting because of the "five picks in one half" performance he may never live down.  And Peterman beating out Allen naturally leads to more snickers, "Wow, if Josh Allen can't even beat out Nathan Peterman"... Josh Allen can't win from the perspective that it was widely acknowledged leading up to the draft, even among Allen supporters, that he required patience.  But then when he's granted that patience it's not because he's not ready as much as it's perceived he'll never be ready, if he can't beat up the "abominable" likes of Nathan Peterman.

 

That's just one problem.

 

The other problem is... this is the NFL in 2018.  How patient are Bills fans- and the Bills themselves- willing to be?  I'm absolutely willing to be patient; Allen has demonstrated enough to make me believe that he isn't the fundamentally lost cause many summarily dismissed him as pre-draft... but the Bills' surrounding cast, skill position "weaponry" and especially our offensive line, has also demonstrated enough that they could really threaten to undo any of the progress Allen has made and have him running for his life, locking onto targets, suffering mechanically, and even suffering serious injury (we were all lucky he remained unscathed from preseason's week #3) if he's out there playing any time soon.

 

I understand that trading up for Allen/Edmunds cost of 5 of our top-65 picks.  But it was still inexcusable to do so little with our remaining draft capital- not until deep in day #3- to provide some offensive help for the highest QB we've ever taken.  Yes, I know that will be addressed in time, specifically next offseason.  But QB's don't get the same time now that they used to.

 

Yes, I'm willing to be patient.  But in the new CBA (signed 7 years ago)... QB's are MUCH easier to move on from than before- the financial commitment/entanglement is just no longer there.  We didn't sign Allen to a 6-year, $78 million dollar deal with $50 million guaranteed like Sam Bradford did in 2010 (or Stafford the year before... or Alex Smith four years before, who lasted 8 years in San Francisco despite atrocious early career play).  Remember the outcry by many when Doug Marrone benched E.J. Manuel after week #4 of just his sophomore season?  "You don't- you CAN'T- bench a QB after just 15-20 starts!?  He needs at least 30."  Well, we did, and other than a week 17 game in 2016 to spite Tyrod and the recently fired Rex Manuel never started another game.  

 

Just two years ago the Broncos traded up in the 1st-round to draft Paxton Lynch.  Well, a mere four starts later- those four starts were evidently enough- and he's not only not starting; he isn't even on Denver's roster.  There's also some consensus that 2016 #1 overall pick Jared Goff was another really bad year in 2017- if it resembled 2016- from quite possibly the Rams looking for the next guy.

 

I'm not saying that any of this is right- I'm just saying that it 'is,' at least how other teams have operated recently, given that the CBA allows teams to extricate out of lesser high 1st-round contracts and given irrationally impatient owners & fanbases.  I'm willing to give Allen the time he needs but Buffalo must be, too.  And unfortunately we don't have an Alex Smith having his best statistical season and leading the Chiefs to a divisional title to obscure that our rookie is sitting.  Instead we have Nathan Peterman and the jokes that follow.

 

27A7285E-FC90-4E29-ADC8-057509FEC9E1.jpeg

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You mean Nate Peterman can't win.

 

Will always be remembered for last year. Not his fault they put him in before being ready.

Is being fed to the wolves  this year.

Will always have Allen looking over his shoulders when he falters

No matter if he succeeds he will be replaced sooner than later, and delegated to 2nd string

Has pressure right away to win.

 

Allen can learn on the sidelines

Improve everything through more practice with the ones

Come in to play possibly when the softer opponents and easier schedule happens

Has no pressure to win this year, as he is seen as more a project

Can tell Ramsey and Cowterd that he will throw a football through their empty heads

 

 

 

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