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Josh Allen 1st Rookie To Win SB...Odds?


theRalph

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Time for another RalphRant:

This post's title is insane...maybe. But it is no more insane than the negatively charged, analytics infested, 3 -13 cover-your-ass sort of drivel I've been hearing about the Bills' chances this season. This inanity has been largely present in the national press, but also in the local radio shows. A national guest on the Flagship the other day even went so far as to say the Bills are the worst team in the league. Of course this notion is espoused and spread like foul flatulence by the current crowd of drippy analytics geeks that have no index for heart and desire. Here are my five reasons the Bills will surprise the league this year, indeed returning to the playoffs...

 

1. Josh Allen will excel as a rookie QB. "Analytics" as a science is, to a degree, both valid and valuable. But past that degree, analytics isn't worth a hockey puck. There is the Eyeball Test and the "it" factor, which Allen passes and possesses, respectively. He came from a program that was under-talented, but this is of great value to him since he is already familiar with adversity. The other high QB picks don't share this attribute. He has progressed before the Bills' eyes, and he is obviously completely unafraid to aggressively throw anywhere on the field (in addition to being probably the most gifted prospect in a generation).  The only reason there is no real QB separation yet is that they're all playing well.

 

2. Contrary to the annoying opinion of the local afternoon radio host, words like "process", "family", "DNA", "culture","chemistry", "got-your-back", "attitude" and "accountable" do indeed have a huge impact on the performance of a team. And Sean McDermott is a firm believer in this. It has much to do with the Bills playoff appearance last season. Even the Dalton throw. It's the Law of Attractions at work. The Bills outdo many, if not most other teams in this regard I believe. This was in evidence last season. How much better will it be this season? 

 

3. The Bills' Defense is in it's Sophomore year, with a highly regarded DC, and stocked with inarguably more talent than last year's squad. There is no rational reason for them not to improve. The secondary, so important in today's NFL, may be amongst the best in the league.

 

4. This is meant for the receivers, but applies to all players. It is very, very difficult to make the NFL. Rex once said it's easier to win the lottery, which is accurate. This just in: The level of talent in the NFL is pretty even across the board. The players are all good. But there is more than talent, much more. There is team, intelligence, experience, coaching, and effort, and yes, character (see point 2). There is some speed at the receiver position now, but this notion that the Bills receiver group was so bad is crap. They're all good. An intelligent offense that throws into mismatches (check) and good and great throws (check) make receivers look great. Our receiving corps is just fine. This also applies to the O-Line. It's so much more about scheme and team. They're all good. 

 

5. The point about the schedule difficulty is not a point at all, but more a surfeit of inane projections based on reputation and expection, not performance. These teams are all new and all different. We have to see the performance. The Bills will be a tough out on the road and will be a surprise early in the season. Shady is going to blossom into something we haven't seen before, simply because a pass offense exists. 

 

They're going to be better. Period.

I do wonder what kind of odds one could get on that Allen bet...

 

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29 minutes ago, theRalph said:

Time for another RalphRant:

This post's title is insane...maybe. But it is no more insane than the negatively charged, analytics infested, 3 -13 cover-your-ass sort of drivel I've been hearing about the Bills' chances this season. This inanity has been largely present in the national press, but also in the local radio shows. A national guest on the Flagship the other day even went so far as to say the Bills are the worst team in the league. Of course this notion is espoused and spread like foul flatulence by the current crowd of drippy analytics geeks that have no index for heart and desire. Here are my five reasons the Bills will surprise the league this year, indeed returning to the playoffs...

 

1. Josh Allen will excel as a rookie QB. "Analytics" as a science is, to a degree, both valid and valuable. But past that degree, analytics isn't worth a hockey puck. There is the Eyeball Test and the "it" factor, which Allen passes and possesses, respectively. He came from a program that was under-talented, but this is of great value to him since he is already familiar with adversity. The other high QB picks don't share this attribute. He has progressed before the Bills' eyes, and he is obviously completely unafraid to aggressively throw anywhere on the field (in addition to being probably the most gifted prospect in a generation).  The only reason there is no real QB separation yet is that they're all playing well.

 

2. Contrary to the annoying opinion of the local afternoon radio host, words like "process", "family", "DNA", "culture","chemistry", "got-your-back", "attitude" and "accountable" do indeed have a huge impact on the performance of a team. And Sean McDermott is a firm believer in this. It has much to do with the Bills playoff appearance last season. Even the Dalton throw. It's the Law of Attractions at work. The Bills outdo many, if not most other teams in this regard I believe. This was in evidence last season. How much better will it be this season? 

 

3. The Bills' Defense is in it's Sophomore year, with a highly regarded DC, and stocked with inarguably more talent than last year's squad. There is no rational reason for them not to improve. The secondary, so important in today's NFL, may be amongst the best in the league.

 

4. This is meant for the receivers, but applies to all players. It is very, very difficult to make the NFL. Rex once said it's easier to win the lottery, which is accurate. This just in: The level of talent in the NFL is pretty even across the board. The players are all good. But there is more than talent, much more. There is team, intelligence, experience, coaching, and effort, and yes, character (see point 2). There is some speed at the receiver position now, but this notion that the Bills receiver group was so bad is crap. They're all good. An intelligent offense that throws into mismatches (check) and good and great throws (check) make receivers look great. Our receiving corps is just fine. This also applies to the O-Line. It's so much more about scheme and team. They're all good. 

 

5. The point about the schedule difficulty is not a point at all, but more a surfeit of inane projections based on reputation and expection, not performance. These teams are all new and all different. We have to see the performance. The Bills will be a tough out on the road and will be a surprise early in the season. Shady is going to blossom into something we haven't seen before, simply because a pass offense exists. 

 

They're going to be better. Period.

I do wonder what kind of odds one could get on that Allen bet...

 

Concur.  There have been many years since the SB days where we've had plenty of talent, but not the leadership needed to make a good team.  Last year, we had less talent than many other years yet made the playoffs.  One word: leadership.  I firmly believe the Pegulas have found the best young coach in the NFL and he has brought tons of leadership talent over to us in the form of Beane, Frazier, Daboll, etc.  Clap away McD!

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1 minute ago, theRalph said:

Not what I wrote. I said “to a degree”. Thx for reading!

What you wrote makes no sense that’s why I commented. You said analytics are valid and also not worth a hockey puck. There’s a dividing line in there I guess? But that’s not really how it works. A useful thing doesn’t become completely useless all of a sudden. 

 

Giving you a chance to rethink this LAMP but I guess you just want commenters to agree with you instead because you clearly put no thought into this. Cheers have another one.

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8 hours ago, JoPar_v2 said:

What you wrote makes no sense that’s why I commented. You said analytics are valid and also not worth a hockey puck. There’s a dividing line in there I guess? But that’s not really how it works. A useful thing doesn’t become completely useless all of a sudden. 

 

Giving you a chance to rethink this LAMP but I guess you just want commenters to agree with you instead because you clearly put no thought into this. Cheers have another one.

LOL OK Socrates … you are fixating on a technical incongruity and missing the overall point completely.  

 

But as another poster said, we will know more when JA plays this weekend.

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9 hours ago, JoPar_v2 said:

What you wrote makes no sense that’s why I commented. You said analytics are valid and also not worth a hockey puck. There’s a dividing line in there I guess? But that’s not really how it works. A useful thing doesn’t become completely useless all of a sudden. 

 

Giving you a chance to rethink this LAMP but I guess you just want commenters to agree with you instead because you clearly put no thought into this. Cheers have another one.

 

You're right.

 

 "Analytics" as a science is, to a degree, both valid and valuable. But past that degree, analytics isn't worth a hockey puck". 

 

For those old enough to remember, this thought could have come out of the mouth of Norm Crosby.

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12 hours ago, JoPar_v2 said:

So analytics are valid and valuable, and also useless. Gotcha

We'll, yes.  You actually explianed them perfectly.  It's important to understand that trends get bucked and you can't create a vacuum to view them in.  They are a guide to probability.      In poker, there is a hand known as the Brunson.  Dude won with a 2 and 10. LOW probability.  Very low, but he played it out.

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Good question, what are the odds? anyone?

 

The Bills 2nd year HC McD is building a Championship caliber D in my humble opinion.

 

Smart play from the QB position can get the job done.

 

Josh Allen has the highest wonderlic score in the draft class.

 

(I'm just saying)

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7 minutes ago, Figster said:

Good question, what are the odds? anyone?

 

The Bills 2nd year HC McD is building a Championship caliber D in my humble opinion.

 

Smart play from the QB position can get the job done.

 

Josh Allen has the highest wonderlic score in the draft class.

 

(I'm just saying)

Man, I'd blow $50 of the odds we're insaine!

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I don't know how many Superbowls he's going to win (if any). Some great QBs never did, as we all know. Nothing is guaranteed, but what I feel comfortable saying is that there is a palpable possibility that the Bills may have landed nothing less than a generational talent at the all important position. The only other rook I have felt that way about is Andrew Luck.

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15 minutes ago, starrymessenger said:

I don't know how many Superbowls he's going to win (if any). Some great QBs never did, as we all know. Nothing is guaranteed, but what I feel comfortable saying is that there is a palpable possibility that the Bills may have landed nothing less than a generational talent at the all important position. The only other rook I have felt that way about is Andrew Luck.

You know, some of his thows are so freaking accurate... Even though he misses some stuff too.  I see the windows he can hit.  It's there, he needs practice reps to get consistent.

And In a half of play, his good throws led guys out of danger.  Especially that TD.  He basically put it on the floor for McCloud to slide under.  

 

Peterman side line throw to KB was beautiful too.

Edited by JaxBills
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5 minutes ago, JaxBills said:

You know, some of his thows are so freaking accurate... Even though he misses some stuff too.  I see the windows he can hit.  It's there, he needs practice reps to get consistent.

And In a half of play, his good throws led guys out of danger.  Especially that TD.  He basically put it on the floor for McCloud to slide under.  

 

Peterman side line throw to KB was beautiful too.

Probably a little bit of the homer in me shining through right now,

 

but Josh Allen has got the look...

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1 hour ago, Figster said:

Good question, what are the odds? anyone?

 

The Bills 2nd year HC McD is building a Championship caliber D in my humble opinion.

 

Smart play from the QB position can get the job done.

 

Josh Allen has the highest wonderlic score in the draft class.

 

(I'm just saying)

He scored high on a written test, but has proven to make dumb choices on the field. He could correct them longterm, but extremely doubtful as a rookie. 

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2 minutes ago, cle23 said:

He scored high on a written test, but has proven to make dumb choices on the field. He could correct them longterm, but extremely doubtful as a rookie. 

I get that, 

 

What I love about Allen right now is the fearless way he attacks the football field.

 

Kid carried the weight of his school at the college level and it shows IMO.

 

thanks for the reply

 

 

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1 hour ago, JaxBills said:

I noticed he still does the same thing from college.... He will look right past an open dump off to get the big play....and I'm ok with that.

 

Man, we need to draft a star receiver.  Someone big!

Our receivers will be Stars, if we keep getting them the ball!

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23 hours ago, cle23 said:

He scored high on a written test, but has proven to make dumb choices on the field. He could correct them longterm, but extremely doubtful as a rookie. 

What dumb choices? Cite examples. Enough of these sweeping generalizations. Have you been watching??

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55 minutes ago, theRalph said:

What dumb choices? Cite examples. Enough of these sweeping generalizations. Have you been watching??

It takes 2 seconds to find several examples of him throwing off balance into double coverage.

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