Jump to content
Royale with Cheese

Over/Under 20 ppg defensive scoring

Recommended Posts

I think the defense will be better this year but lets not forget that really good defense requires good offense too.

 

It is hard to play great defense if you are on the field all the time and in bad field position.  We need the offense to generate first downs, control the cloak, and score some points. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Bob in STL said:

I think the defense will be better this year but lets not forget that really good defense requires good offense too.

 

It is hard to play great defense if you are on the field all the time and in bad field position.  We need the offense to generate first downs, control the cloak, and score some points. 

 

If our offense is invisible to the opponent we are going to score a LOT of points!

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, Bob in STL said:

I think the defense will be better this year but lets not forget that really good defense requires good offense too.

 

It is hard to play great defense if you are on the field all the time and in bad field position.  We need the offense to generate first downs, control the cloak, and score some points. 

 

 Agreed. The offense does not look good on paper. The left side of the line , including the center is gone. The receiver position looks weak, and we don't know if the QB who starts can protect the ball like Taylor did.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Under: 19.999999 points per game.

We are not rounding up.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think points per game will improve slightly. I see the team really improving in run defense, though. Overall I think we'll be around a top 10 defense. Top 15 for sure.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Last year we were at 21.7 ppg which put us at 16th in the league.  20 ppg  would probably put us around 10th in the league generally speaking.

With the additions we've made in the draft and FA....could you see us holding teams to 20 ppg or below this year?

 

I think that's very attainable.  I think we got stronger in the middle, I think our pass rush will be better and it's another year in this defense.  

 

I think Murphy will be a huge addition.  Hughes I believe last year was top 20 in pressures but lacked the sacks because we didn't have any threat anywhere else on the DL.  Lorax was on WGR a while back and talked about how Star will help the pass rush....basically he won't allow the QB to step in the pocket because he's an immovable object in the middle.  I think Harrison Phillips provides more than what we had last year in the rotation.  

 

I'm really excited about Edmunds and Milano....we have speed at LB now it seems.  Lorax is a weak link at LB but I see him coming off the field a lot on 2nd/3rd downs.

 

Our secondary I expect will continue being great and might be better with a better pass rush.....better pass rush is the key.

 

You literally hit all the points I had planned on making on the head. Albeit I believe that the LorAx is nearly done as a LB however, he will benefit from the rest of the motley crue and still play productive football... If we utilize him as a pass rusher and remove him when we are primarily in a nickel front (which I think is the plan...).

 

Although I am skeptical about Star's presence being 180 degrees from last year, I do think he will be a MORE than sufficient piece to the puzzle and most definitely open things up for Jerry Hughes, who unfortunately has ALWAYS generated a ton of pressure and produced a surprisingly low number of actual sacks. He is still very talented and sacks are just stats (I know I am rationalizing because I know he is productive and I like him... lol). Real excitement/apprehension goes to Trent Murphy who I am curious to see how he does. In that same vein, how Shaq competes for PT and stats due to the nature of his impending contract year. 

 

Our defense will surprise early on if we are healthy and rather than us hanging in there for games and pundits not understanding why, I believe there will be concrete pieces of evidence in the form of bonafide play-makers that validate our Bills D this year!

 

Go Bills!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'll take the under, this team will finish around 17 points per game. Second year in the system and they are bringing in players that fit what they need. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

chicago had the 9th ranked scoring defense and 29th scoring offense.  so having a great offense doesn't mean our defense will suffer in the stat line because of it. but i get where your heads are at.  We got run all over last year and with star and edmunds in the middle we should be much more stout against the run.  that's going to be a huge help for this defense and getting off the field.  The offense can help quite a bit and I hope our run game can be very effective this year.  run and stop the run. success

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Depends on how well they can get off the field and how well the offense can stay on the field.  

 

I don't expect much change in the defense (because of the hits on offense) despite the defensive additions.

 

I'll take the over at around 21.7ppg again.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, eball said:

 

If our offense is invisible to the opponent we are going to score a LOT of points!

 

Ya gotta get up pretty early to trip up eball.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

chicago had the 9th ranked scoring defense and 29th scoring offense.  so having a great offense doesn't mean our defense will suffer in the stat line because of it.

 

Sure it does (I assume you meant "having a poor offense", and Chicago defense at 8th). You just have to look at it from a different angle. 

 

Generally, the defensive PPG rankings are a good reflection of the quality of play on that side of the ball, but part of the numbers being what they are has to do with other facets of the team, and other factors. Having a poor offense means that opponents probably don't have to pass quite as much, or take many risks, in order to beat you, because you aren't scoring much yourself. They get the lead, and run to victory. That "shortens" games, and typically keeps the score lower, as teams average 1-2 less possessions per game. That helps the defensive PPG, to some extent. 

Edited by Drunken Pygmy Goat
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Im taking the under. Reasons:

  1. I think Edmunds will be a finalist for DROY after a very strong rookie campaign
  2. I think Harrison Phillips and Star are going to vastly improve our DL
  3. I believe Trent Murphy is going to make a FA impact similar to Hyde and Porter last year
  4. I believe Hughes will be more effective this season with better talent around him to free him up more to do more of what he does best
  5. I love our secondary and think its going to be even better this year than last
  6. I believe our defensive front 7 is going to prove to be quite a bit better than last year to go with our already very strong secondary.  

Additionally, I think Shaq will surprise some of his doubters this year and make noticeable strides in his 3rd year.  He's come in motivated, determined, lighter, etc and the coaches have even noticed that there is something different with him this year.  I think he is figuring out what it takes to succeed in the NFL and seems committed to doing it and I am optimistic that he will see some positive strides in him.

 

I don't know if the team overall will be able to still make the playoffs again, will greatly depend on our young QB situation and questionable OL and WR situation as well.  But I do expect the D to improve and has top 10 potential IMO.  

 

Devils Advocate:  While I am optimistic about the things above, I do recognize there are things they may play out different and could see the D not improve and could slip this year.  However, my personal opinion is the one above and still take the under, but I do realize there are these risks below:

  1. Tre could have a sophomore slump like Darby did.
  2. Hyde/Porter have had injury problems in the past
  3. Edmunds and Phillips are rookies and we will need them to have strong rookie campaigns
  4. Murphy has shown potential, but needs to stay healthy and show it wasn't a fluke
  5. Star has to be better than he was the last couple years in Carolina

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good points here.  I think our defense will be better but the nerds like to point out turnovers aren’t a constant stat.  Odds are the Bills are going to create as many turnovers and whether you like him or not, Tyrod took care of the ball.  I think I would go with the over but I believe the defense will actually be better.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think it goes up by a field goal, at least.

 

We got A LOT of breaks with INTs last year.  I can't see that kind of luck again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Good points here.  I think our defense will be better but the nerds like to point out turnovers aren’t a constant stat.  Odds are the Bills are going to create as many turnovers and whether you like him or not, Tyrod took care of the ball.  I think I would go with the over but I believe the defense will actually be better.

I think the defense will be better but the offense will turn the ball over a lot more which will hurt the PPG with shorter fields for the opposing teams offenses and perhaps some even returned for TDs. 

 

It will all even out and they will be about the same, IMO.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

I think the defense will be better but the offense will turn the ball over a lot more which will hurt the PPG with shorter fields for the opposing teams offenses and perhaps some even returned for TDs. 

 

It will all even out and they will be about the same, IMO.

Basically, we will be better 7-9 and 9-7 like we are every year!!! 😆 

 

I think people overlook how completely lucky this team was last year (and obviously we deserved it after 17 years!!!).  We scored 302 points and gave up 359.  In 2008, we went 7-9, scored 336 (our qbs threw 14 tds to 15 ints!!!), and gave up 342 points. 

 

Last year was a masters class in Jauronball!

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Basically, we will be better 7-9 and 9-7 like we are every year!!! 😆 

 

I think people overlook how completely lucky this team was last year (and obviously we deserved it after 17 years!!!).  We scored 302 points and gave up 359.  In 2008, we went 7-9, scored 336 (our qbs threw 14 tds to 15 ints!!!), and gave up 342 points. 

 

Last year was a masters class in Jauronball!

 

Yea. They won because they didn't turn the ball over while eating clock and sustaining drives, and playing bend but don't break defense. 

 

They'll try and do something similar this year except I expect the turnovers to increase at a pretty significant number which means they lose more games.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I got the under. The defense has improved and last year's numbers were inflated by our 3 blowout losses. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Updated my numbers and over the past 3 years the only team with a defense more bipolar than ours is the Texans. Opponents scored 14.7 PPG against us in wins which is good for 7th in the league, and opponents scored 31.0 PPG against us in losses which is good for DFL 32nd.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×