Jump to content

Over/Under 20 ppg defensive scoring


Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Good topic and I’m hedging. I think that the defense will be better and possibly very good. I think that the increase in short fields will hurt them. Last year the Bills averaged 1.1 turnover a game. If you take away the Peterman nightmare half it would have been 11 total, the fewest in the league. If that doubles this year to 22 (middle of the league) the defense will face more short fields. I think that they will be better but the additional turnovers may hurt the scoring number. I’ll reluctantly take the over but think that they might be quite good.

 

Don't forget last year the Bills had that horrible 3-game run in the middle of the season when they gave up 34/47/54.  They actually held teams to 20 or less in 11 of 17 games.  I think the under is a good bet with the improvements made and another year in the system.

 

Edited by eball
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I say over, but I think they finish just above 20 PPG. The Bears finished 2017 right at 20, good for 8th best. Their offense struggled at times with Glennon and Trubisky at QB, and I think it's safe to expect the Bills offense to struggle much the same way, so field position may play a role. For the first half or so of the season, the Bills did a really good job of holding teams to FGs, and I think that will continue for the most part. 

 

The offense has several question marks this year, that can either hurt or help the defense. Who will be the QB, and how well will they play (compared to reasonable expectations)? Will Zay step up his game, and help extend drives rather than halt them? Will the offensive line take a step back, or will they be ok after losing Wood and Incognito? Will the line have a negative effect on the run game (which can "shorten" games)? Will there be improved play from WRs #3 & #4? Just how good the defense is will depend on players on that side of the ball, but certain aspects of the offense can play a role in PPG on defense.

Edited by Drunken Pygmy Goat
Stupid auto correct
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The over/under for defensive points allowed is a tough one for me, considering the offensive turnover.  If you were to tell me that the offense was going to be the same with a game manager under center that didn't take chances, but also didn't turn the ball over, I would take the under.  However, we don't know what we're going to get offensively.  Take away the Nate Pick-erman debacle and they didn't give the ball to the other team a whole lot.  -0.50 per game for the offense and +1.67 per game for the defense.  That disparity is big enough that we can't really say that it will happen again.  I want to be optimistic,  but at the same time tend to be more realistic.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Don't forget last year the Bills had that horrible 3-game run in the middle of the season when they gave up 34/47/54.  They actually held teams to 20 or less in 11 of 17 games.  I think the under is a good bet with the improvements made and another year in the system.

 

 

 I thought of that too....that was a bad, bad stretch.  

11 of 17 under 20 is pretty good.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think the defense will be better this year but lets not forget that really good defense requires good offense too.

 

It is hard to play great defense if you are on the field all the time and in bad field position.  We need the offense to generate first downs, control the cloak, and score some points. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Bob in STL said:

I think the defense will be better this year but lets not forget that really good defense requires good offense too.

 

It is hard to play great defense if you are on the field all the time and in bad field position.  We need the offense to generate first downs, control the cloak, and score some points. 

 

If our offense is invisible to the opponent we are going to score a LOT of points!

  • Haha (+1) 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, Bob in STL said:

I think the defense will be better this year but lets not forget that really good defense requires good offense too.

 

It is hard to play great defense if you are on the field all the time and in bad field position.  We need the offense to generate first downs, control the cloak, and score some points. 

 

 Agreed. The offense does not look good on paper. The left side of the line , including the center is gone. The receiver position looks weak, and we don't know if the QB who starts can protect the ball like Taylor did.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think points per game will improve slightly. I see the team really improving in run defense, though. Overall I think we'll be around a top 10 defense. Top 15 for sure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Last year we were at 21.7 ppg which put us at 16th in the league.  20 ppg  would probably put us around 10th in the league generally speaking.

With the additions we've made in the draft and FA....could you see us holding teams to 20 ppg or below this year?

 

I think that's very attainable.  I think we got stronger in the middle, I think our pass rush will be better and it's another year in this defense.  

 

I think Murphy will be a huge addition.  Hughes I believe last year was top 20 in pressures but lacked the sacks because we didn't have any threat anywhere else on the DL.  Lorax was on WGR a while back and talked about how Star will help the pass rush....basically he won't allow the QB to step in the pocket because he's an immovable object in the middle.  I think Harrison Phillips provides more than what we had last year in the rotation.  

 

I'm really excited about Edmunds and Milano....we have speed at LB now it seems.  Lorax is a weak link at LB but I see him coming off the field a lot on 2nd/3rd downs.

 

Our secondary I expect will continue being great and might be better with a better pass rush.....better pass rush is the key.

 

You literally hit all the points I had planned on making on the head. Albeit I believe that the LorAx is nearly done as a LB however, he will benefit from the rest of the motley crue and still play productive football... If we utilize him as a pass rusher and remove him when we are primarily in a nickel front (which I think is the plan...).

 

Although I am skeptical about Star's presence being 180 degrees from last year, I do think he will be a MORE than sufficient piece to the puzzle and most definitely open things up for Jerry Hughes, who unfortunately has ALWAYS generated a ton of pressure and produced a surprisingly low number of actual sacks. He is still very talented and sacks are just stats (I know I am rationalizing because I know he is productive and I like him... lol). Real excitement/apprehension goes to Trent Murphy who I am curious to see how he does. In that same vein, how Shaq competes for PT and stats due to the nature of his impending contract year. 

 

Our defense will surprise early on if we are healthy and rather than us hanging in there for games and pundits not understanding why, I believe there will be concrete pieces of evidence in the form of bonafide play-makers that validate our Bills D this year!

 

Go Bills!

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

chicago had the 9th ranked scoring defense and 29th scoring offense.  so having a great offense doesn't mean our defense will suffer in the stat line because of it. but i get where your heads are at.  We got run all over last year and with star and edmunds in the middle we should be much more stout against the run.  that's going to be a huge help for this defense and getting off the field.  The offense can help quite a bit and I hope our run game can be very effective this year.  run and stop the run. success

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Depends on how well they can get off the field and how well the offense can stay on the field.  

 

I don't expect much change in the defense (because of the hits on offense) despite the defensive additions.

 

I'll take the over at around 21.7ppg again.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

chicago had the 9th ranked scoring defense and 29th scoring offense.  so having a great offense doesn't mean our defense will suffer in the stat line because of it.

 

Sure it does (I assume you meant "having a poor offense", and Chicago defense at 8th). You just have to look at it from a different angle. 

 

Generally, the defensive PPG rankings are a good reflection of the quality of play on that side of the ball, but part of the numbers being what they are has to do with other facets of the team, and other factors. Having a poor offense means that opponents probably don't have to pass quite as much, or take many risks, in order to beat you, because you aren't scoring much yourself. They get the lead, and run to victory. That "shortens" games, and typically keeps the score lower, as teams average 1-2 less possessions per game. That helps the defensive PPG, to some extent. 

Edited by Drunken Pygmy Goat
  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Im taking the under. Reasons:

  1. I think Edmunds will be a finalist for DROY after a very strong rookie campaign
  2. I think Harrison Phillips and Star are going to vastly improve our DL
  3. I believe Trent Murphy is going to make a FA impact similar to Hyde and Porter last year
  4. I believe Hughes will be more effective this season with better talent around him to free him up more to do more of what he does best
  5. I love our secondary and think its going to be even better this year than last
  6. I believe our defensive front 7 is going to prove to be quite a bit better than last year to go with our already very strong secondary.  

Additionally, I think Shaq will surprise some of his doubters this year and make noticeable strides in his 3rd year.  He's come in motivated, determined, lighter, etc and the coaches have even noticed that there is something different with him this year.  I think he is figuring out what it takes to succeed in the NFL and seems committed to doing it and I am optimistic that he will see some positive strides in him.

 

I don't know if the team overall will be able to still make the playoffs again, will greatly depend on our young QB situation and questionable OL and WR situation as well.  But I do expect the D to improve and has top 10 potential IMO.  

 

Devils Advocate:  While I am optimistic about the things above, I do recognize there are things they may play out different and could see the D not improve and could slip this year.  However, my personal opinion is the one above and still take the under, but I do realize there are these risks below:

  1. Tre could have a sophomore slump like Darby did.
  2. Hyde/Porter have had injury problems in the past
  3. Edmunds and Phillips are rookies and we will need them to have strong rookie campaigns
  4. Murphy has shown potential, but needs to stay healthy and show it wasn't a fluke
  5. Star has to be better than he was the last couple years in Carolina
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good points here.  I think our defense will be better but the nerds like to point out turnovers aren’t a constant stat.  Odds are the Bills are going to create as many turnovers and whether you like him or not, Tyrod took care of the ball.  I think I would go with the over but I believe the defense will actually be better.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...