Matt Waldman's film study of Josh Allen

[HappyDays]

The video is 30 minutes long but it goes into good detail on what Allen does well and what he needs to develop.

 

 

[billsfan1959]

IMHO, those who like Allen will be able to find all the evidence they need to justify his potential to be a franchise QB. Conversely, those that do not like Allen will be able to find all the evidence they need to justify his potential to be a complete bust. Whether or not I agree with the pick, I respect that, not only, did this franchise finally take a real shot at finding a franchise QB, they chose the one that has the highest potential ceiling. They swung for the fence and I hope they hit it out of the park.

[JinxedBill1]

Good stuff, thanks for sharing.  I see a lot of good and some things that need to develop.  Hopefully this staff can develop him.

[Not at the table Karlos]

I wish we had someone to develop him on the staff. We have a TE and a WR coach trying to teach him how to play QB. I'd feel a lot better if he had someone that played the position to help him. 

 

I'll go on record as not being a fan of the pick but I'm trying to come around. He does throw some beautiful balls that are perfectly placed and had some terrible drops by wrs. But there's times he has a clear view of a defender that is going to intercept the pass and throws it anyway. Saw a bunch of his out passes that would be picked in the pros.  

 

I feel a lot better about him than I did about EJ or losman but something is still missing. I hope I'm wrong and the kid can put it all together. 

[Tjm3]

Could have been 5 minute video. Absolutely horrible editing or lack there of. Almost unwatchable. 

[Success]

I think what separates Allen from other “big arm/raw talent” guys who we cite as busts is the strong work ethic and dedication to improving.  More than one scout talked about things he worked on and improved just from the season to the Senior bowl to the combine.

 

I’m optimistic, but it is hard to separate my hope that he works out from reality.  It has been a long haul and a lot of bad qb’s since Kelly.

[cd1]

15 minutes ago, Success said:

I think what separates Allen from other “big arm/raw talent” guys who we cite as busts is the strong work ethic and dedication to improving.  More than one scout talked about things he worked on and improved just from the season to the Senior bowl to the combine.

 

I’m optimistic, but it is hard to separate my hope that he works out from reality.  It has been a long haul and a lot of bad qb’s since Kelly.

 

Sorry -  Both EJ Manuel and Tyrod Taylor have incredible strong work ethics.  Work Ethic is not a determination of achievement.

Edited April 29, 2018 by cd1

[Epstein's Mother]

30 minutes ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

I wish we had someone to develop him on the staff. We have a TE and a WR coach trying to teach him how to play QB. I'd feel a lot better if he had someone that played the position to help him. 

 

I have to believe that Beane and McDermott are gonna provide whatever support is necessary to bring this kid along.  They don't seem like the type to leave things to chance.

1 minute ago, cd1 said:

 

Sorry -  Both EJ Manuel and Tyrod Taylor have incredible strong work ethics.  Work Ethic is not a determination of achievement.

 

I don't think this fan base will ever confuse effort with results.

[HappyDays]

38 minutes ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

I wish we had someone to develop him on the staff. We have a TE and a WR coach trying to teach him how to play QB. I'd feel a lot better if he had someone that played the position to help him. 

 

I'll go on record as not being a fan of the pick but I'm trying to come around. He does throw some beautiful balls that are perfectly placed and had some terrible drops by wrs. But there's times he has a clear view of a defender that is going to intercept the pass and throws it anyway. Saw a bunch of his out passes that would be picked in the pros.  

 

I feel a lot better about him than I did about EJ or losman but something is still missing. I hope I'm wrong and the kid can put it all together. 

 

This is exactly how I feel about him. You can't deny that he has the ability to make incredible throws. The one throw he makes at I think the 24 minute mark is ridiculous. His best throws are better than any throw of any QB in this draft, they're just not as frequent as you'd like. He just doesn't make smart decisions all the time, takes sacks he shouldn't take or gets lazy with his footwork in anticipation of pressure. He sometimes has bad movement in the pocket but occasionally it's perfect. By all accounts he's smart and dedicated so I'm hoping he puts it all together eventually, I feel a lot better about it than I did when we first announced the pick.

[Success]

16 minutes ago, cd1 said:

 

Sorry -  Both EJ Manuel and Tyrod Taylor have incredible strong work ethics.  Work Ethic is not a determination of achievement.

Taylor has nowhere near the basic skill set and ceiling as Allen.

 

EJ’s only similarity is a strong arm.  No one ever saw the same high potential with his overall skill set.

[cd1]

23 minutes ago, Success said:

Taylor has nowhere near the basic skill set and ceiling as Allen.

 

EJ’s only similarity is a strong arm.  No one ever saw the same high potential with his overall skill set.

????????

 

STRONG WORK ETHIC!  

 

I was responding to the post:    "I think what separates Allen from other “big arm/raw talent” guys who we cite as busts is the strong work ethic"

[Success]

8 minutes ago, cd1 said:

????????

 

STRONG WORK ETHIC!  

 

I was responding to the post:    "I think what separates Allen from other “big arm/raw talent” guys who we cite as busts is the strong work ethic"

Bad communication on my part.  I wasn’t trying to single out work ethic as the ONLY factor.  But it’s a differentiator when a prospect has all of the other skills that you want.

[Wayne Arnold]

Waldman's bottom line regarding Josh Allen: Freak physical characteristics, very little wisdom.

 

He's everything the NFL establishment (aka dinosaurs) want in a quarterback prospect. They think they can teach him the wisdom that prevented from being successful in college.

[Bring it]

Wisdom? Somewhere along the way EVERY NFL Qb had to learn to not take a sack on 3rd down when you are in fg range in a tight game. You aren’t born with it. Some recognize those instances when they need to and throw it out of bounds, some not quick enough. What will Allen do? I don’t know. But, when he gets his base right and throws he is mostly accurate. He has arm talent that is rare! He is worth the gamble imo because if he continues to show improvement he will be very good maybe great!

[hondo in seattle]

I thought the Kirk Cousins interviews with Allen were good.  Allen seemed to know his stuff.

 

https://officialize.com/originals/the-wake-up-call/kirk-cousins-josh-allen-part-1?utm_campaign=KCwakeup1_042418&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

 

The thing about Cousins is that he also had flaws coming out of college.  One draft profile on NFL.com said this, "Cousins has late-round value to a team looking for someone to compete for a backup role."  Some guys overcome their flaws.  Fingers crossed that Allen is one of them.  

 

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/kirk-cousins?id=2532820

 

 

[richardb1952]

I feel some of this "lack of wisdom" on the part of Allen is based on a lack of experience.  If he can learn from his mistakes, he has a chance to be very good.  If he is not able to gain the necessary wisdom to further his mental processing skills, the Bills will be looking for a new QB in 3 years.  He definitely has some great tools to work with though.  I hope the Bills have a plan to give him the greatest opportunity for success.  GO BILLS>

Edited April 29, 2018 by richardb1952

[transplantbillsfan]

Okay... this thread needs legs, but I understand why it doesn't have them simply because Waldman's video is just over 30 minutes.

 

Lots of exceptional breakdowns in here and Allen demonstrates he has the ability to be very well rounded. But there are 2 quotes that stand out to me as "highlights" or "scouting notes" inserted:

 

"Emotional IQ/Strategic Wisdom is what separates top franchise QBs--and it's the most difficult thing to teach in any industry!"

 

"Allen's on-field emotional IQ based on football behaviors has a lot of opportunity for growth and he'll be entering a league that is really hit or miss with training and development."

 

To me, the 2nd quote says Allen has some work to do with on-field wisdom and Emotional IQ. He points to a couple examples, particularly a play where he sees no coverage to one side of the field and instead of rifling it to his WR with his howitzer for a potential TD before any defender could reach him, Allen floats it in. Still a positive play. Still a 1st down. Could have been more.

 

But the thing is, based on the kid in terms of personal background, he seems to have the Emotional IQ and enough smarts to develop that strategic wisdom already.

 

In the end, that aspect of what Waldman talks about is the reason I have a decent amount of confidence Allen can succeed.

[Coach Tuesday]

But this is also what bugs me about the pick.  It will likely take years to try to develop the guy and the debate will rage within the fanbase and locker room about whether he has “it” or not - with one camp insisting he has he tools and blaming the coaches for not developing him, and another constituency convinced he’ll never be successful.

 

Talented QBs who lack a feel for the game suck years out of a franchise and kill coaches’ careers.

 

I just don’t think this was a risk worth taking with Rosen sitting there.

 

Then again, Rosen is the type who would go straight to the owner (or media) with his gripes about the pop gun offense that McDermott seems to favor, so I get why he wasn’t the choice...

 

Ugh.

[BullBuchanan]

On 4/29/2018 at 10:31 AM, billsfan1959 said:

IMHO, those who like Allen will be able to find all the evidence they need to justify his potential to be a franchise QB. Conversely, those that do not like Allen will be able to find all the evidence they need to justify his potential to be a complete bust. Whether or not I agree with the pick, I respect that, not only, did this franchise finally take a real shot at finding a franchise QB, they chose the one that has the highest potential ceiling. They swung for the fence and I hope they hit it out of the park.

 

Honest question. All over the boards I've seen it repeated over and over since the draft that Allen has the highest ceiling. What exactly does that mean and how are people getting to that conclusion? What QB does he look like if he gets there? How does he win games? What are his losses like? Why can't Mayfield be the next Drew Brees? Why can't Darnold be the next Marino, Rosen the next Eli, Rudolph the next Roethlisberger?

 

If Allen becomes the next Favre, is that the pinnacle of quarterbacking?

How EXACTLY does Allen have the "highest ceiling" when he's never played better than any of his peers going back to pee-wee?

Edited May 1, 2018 by BullBuchanan

[Turk71]

On 4/29/2018 at 11:28 AM, Success said:

I think what separates Allen from other “big arm/raw talent” guys who we cite as busts is the strong work ethic and dedication to improving.  More than one scout talked about things he worked on and improved just from the season to the Senior bowl to the combine.

 

I’m optimistic, but it is hard to separate my hope that he works out from reality.  It has been a long haul and a lot of bad qb’s since Kelly.

He is smart, willing to learn and has rare physical tools. That is a good combo to have a good chance. I am encouraged that he is still young and he was the smartest qb on the wonderlic. Say what you will, but one thing the wonderlic measures is how quickly you can see patterns and discern the proper response. He has a good aptitude for learning and so far a humble willingness to do so, that bodes well for his success imo.

Edited May 1, 2018 by Turk71

[Imissbeastmode]

25 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

 

Honest question. All over the boards I've seen it repeated over and over since the draft that Allen has the highest ceiling. What exactly does that mean and how are people getting to that conclusion? What QB does he look like if he gets there? How does he win games? What are his losses like? Why can't Mayfield be the next Drew Brees? Why can't Darnold be the next Marino, Rosen the next Eli, Rudolph the next Roethlisberger?

 

If Allen becomes the next Favre, is that the pinnacle of quarterbacking?

How EXACTLY does Allen have the "highest ceiling" when he's never played better than any of his peers going back to pee-wee?

 

His ceiling is Jay Cutler.

[Bfanlc]

25 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

 

Honest question. All over the boards I've seen it repeated over and over since the draft that Allen has the highest ceiling. What exactly does that mean and how are people getting to that conclusion? What QB does he look like if he gets there? How does he win games? What are his losses like? Why can't Mayfield be the next Drew Brees? Why can't Darnold be the next Marino, Rosen the next Eli, Rudolph the next Roethlisberger?

 

If Allen becomes the next Favre, is that the pinnacle of quarterbacking?

How EXACTLY does Allen have the "highest ceiling" when he's never played better than any of his peers going back to pee-wee?

I think people are confusing highest ceiling with largest amount of growth to do to reach his ceiling. I don't think his ceiling is any higher than Darnolds or Mayfields. They are just more NFL ready than he is.

[GunnerBill]

On 29/04/2018 at 4:31 PM, billsfan1959 said:

IMHO, those who like Allen will be able to find all the evidence they need to justify his potential to be a franchise QB. Conversely, those that do not like Allen will be able to find all the evidence they need to justify his potential to be a complete bust.

 

The fact is Josh Allen has the potential to do either and you don't need to look at his film for very long to see that. He is the definition almost of the sky high ceiling but rock bottom floor. I think anyone who has watched him and is interested in a fair analysis will accept that. The question is where you peg him as likely to end up on that spectrum and ultimately now the next point at which we get real evidence to begin to plot on the graph is when he gets on the field. As I said elsewhere last night my feeling listening to Beane is that will be sooner rather than later. 

[RPbillsfan]

1 hour ago, Imissbeastmode said:

 

His ceiling is Jay Cutler.

How is Josh Allen in any way comparable to Jay Cutler.

 

If your talking arm strength maybe that's the only area I see.  Allen looks like he is a natural leader, hard working, involved and dedicated, none of those attributes were ever part of Jay Cutler's persona.

 

Sorry, really don't see the comparison

[Coach Tuesday]

44 minutes ago, RPbillsfan said:

How is Josh Allen in any way comparable to Jay Cutler.

 

If your talking arm strength maybe that's the only area I see.  Allen looks like he is a natural leader, hard working, involved and dedicated, none of those attributes were ever part of Jay Cutler's persona.

 

Sorry, really don't see the comparison

 

He's not really like Jay Cutler as an overall player/person - but both players over-rely on their arm strength to their advantage and disadvantage.  Cutler never bothered to fix his mechanics and would heave the ball up for grabs off his back foot 2-5 times per game.  Allen has flashed some of that in college and it's up to him to fix it.

[Fadingpain]

On April 29, 2018 at 11:31 AM, billsfan1959 said:

IMHO, those who like Allen will be able to find all the evidence they need to justify his potential to be a franchise QB. Conversely, those that do not like Allen will be able to find all the evidence they need to justify his potential to be a complete bust. Whether or not I agree with the pick, I respect that, not only, did this franchise finally take a real shot at finding a franchise QB, they chose the one that has the highest potential ceiling. They swung for the fence and I hope they hit it out of the park.

Disagree.  Blowing the draft choice on a guy who is highly likely to bust according to all the data is not "taking a real shot at finding a franchise QB" any more than taking EJ was a real shot.

 

Want a real shot at a franchise QB?  Take the best passer in this draft class, Josh Rosen.

 

Time will tell.

 

 

[ganesh]

On 4/29/2018 at 10:13 PM, cd1 said:

 

Sorry -  Both EJ Manuel and Tyrod Taylor have incredible strong work ethics.  Work Ethic is not a determination of achievement.

It is the strong work ethic to overcome their deficiencies.

[billsfan1959]

24 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

Disagree.  Blowing the draft choice on a guy who is highly likely to bust according to all the data is not "taking a real shot at finding a franchise QB" any more than taking EJ was a real shot.

 

Want a real shot at a franchise QB?  Take the best passer in this draft class, Josh Rosen.

 

Time will tell.

 

 

You are certainly welcome to your opinion; however, IMHO, I believe there is far less certainty about who will be a bust and who will be great than you seem to.

 

Just a feeling on my part, but, I don't think ALL the data indicates Allen will be a bust. Then again, I haven't seen ALL the data and you apparently have. So, maybe you are right.

 

We do agree on one thing: Time will tell.

[billsfan1959]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The fact is Josh Allen has the potential to do either and you don't need to look at his film for very long to see that. He is the definition almost of the sky high ceiling but rock bottom floor. I think anyone who has watched him and is interested in a fair analysis will accept that. The question is where you peg him as likely to end up on that spectrum and ultimately now the next point at which we get real evidence to begin to plot on the graph is when he gets on the field. As I said elsewhere last night my feeling listening to Beane is that will be sooner rather than later. 

Always respect your opinion Gunner and I absolutely agree his ceiling is very high and his floor is very low. I watched as much film and read as many analyses as I could on the QBs in this draft, as I was fairly certain the Bills would select one of the "top 4.". I do not believe I have anywhere near the ability of guys like you or Kirby in assessing their talent; however, I also wouldn't consider myself to be completely void of any ability - maybe somewhere in between. At the end, when the choice on draft night came down to Rosen or Allen, my analyses told me they should go with Rosen over Allen.

 

With all that said, risk assessment is a very tricky business - and that is really all the draft process is: An assessment of as many variables possible to predict future behavior. That is something I do have considerable experience with (although not football success). Since 1997, there have been 56 quarterbacks taken in the first round. Less than 35% have won a playoff game and less than 35% have career winning records.In that same span, there were 33 QBs taken in the top 10. Excluding the four that have been in the league less than three years, 44% (13) have career winning records and have won at least one playoff game (we'll use this as an arbitrary measure of success for this). That doesn't mean a team has a 44% chance of finding that successful QB if they pick one in the top 10. The QB they select will either be successful or he will not. The real question is: Do all of the variables indicate a greater chance of him being in the 44% who are successful or the 56% that are not.

 

I would agree with you that the variables I have looked at seem to say Allen has a greater chance of being in the unsuccessful group (not to the degree that you do). However, from experience, I also know that risk assessment is a very inexact science. In any given case we really do not know which variables will be the most weighted,  what variables we are unaware of, and how all of the variables ultimately come together. And some of those variables may not even exist yet. At this point, based on what I have looked at, I just do not feel as strongly as you do about which group he is more likely to end up in.

 

So, Allen was not my first choice; however, I was not unhappy with the selection and I am just not as pessimistic as some others may be. I will hope for the best, as you will, until there is no reason to hope anymore. I certainly haven't reached that point yet - not even close.

Edited May 1, 2018 by billsfan1959