Bandit's 2018 QB Evaluations

[jr1]

thanks. this was incredibly professional 

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

Thanks so much bandit! Four with top-10 grades, wow.

[Augie]

13 minutes ago, PIZ said:

Surprisingly to me, it looks like we should try to trade up to get Josh Allen.  Didn't think I'd say that.  He appears to have everything McBeane wants in a QB.

 

I’m going to skip Darnold and jump to Allen. I really WANT to be more sold. I’ve seen disappointing..... and I’ve seen greatness! At the very least this gives me some hope! I need something positive as Louisville and their strippers/hookers stole Xavier’s coach today. Bummer day for me... Good news is very welcome! 

[4merper4mer]

Good stuff.  Anything on Keane or Lauluelalueletta?

[oldmanfan]

Nice work.  Very informative.

[Augie]

Was Allen “dating” the sisters of all his OLine? 

Edited March 27, 2018 by Augie

[xRUSHx]

Nice write up man, thanks for taking the time to do it.

[KDIGGZ]

I can't believe there is any question whether Rosen is the best QB in the draft.  But I am surprised when I see someone that agrees with me.  I open a thread and I expect to see someone else at the top.  It feels like I'm taking crazy pills.  Glad you agree.  He has next level mechanics.  Coaches like to think you can teach that but you can only make small improvements to mechanics because when the bullets are flying the player reverts back to what he knows best.  Josh Rosen was absolutely born to be a QB.  Sadly, I don't think the Bills will draft him.  We will watch him go to pro bowls and always wonder what if.

 

I actually have Allen as my #2 for the same reasons you stated.  I don't see the horrible accuracy issues.  I see touch issues.  He throws a fastball when a change-up is needed.  That's fine, he will learn that the more he throws and I saw improvements with that at the senior bowl.  Watch the 2nd half tape, it's impressive.  The footwork gets sloppy when under pressure.  You want to see replicatable precision.  Tom Brady works on that with Tom House.  Every throw should look the same.  That's one of the first things you learn as a baseball pitcher too.  If your delivery is in check then you can put the ball wherever you want it.  He will work on that.  But the good news is he's built like a tree so good luck getting him down.  Once he gets more comfortable in the pocket I think his footwork will improve.  He also has to work on anticipation.  Growing up, when you throw a football that hard you don't have to anticipate the receiver breaking open but in the NFL the windows are so small that you do.

 

I go back and forth on Darnold and Mayfield.  I hate Darnold's delivery and footwork.  As a connoisseur of QB's, I can't get over huge mechanical flaws.  He has happy feet and starts tap dancing and even employs the jump pass from time to time.  Just say no to the jump pass.  Slide in the pocket, have a good base when you throw, keep the ball high and ready to fire.  There's no need for all of that other stuff.  Plus the fumbles and int's are a huge concern.  But he has the body for the position and a quick release with good arm strength and anticipation so it makes me think maybe he can overcome his flaws if he works at it.

 

Mayfield I just can't get over his height.  I didn't see him work very much in the pocket, just a lot of quick throws from the shotgun.  He just represents a much bigger risk for me.  But I love his drive and determination and he would be the kind of guy that a team drafts him and you hear about him doing amazing in camp and taking over the leadership reigns and just never letting go.  I think he will start year 1 because he doesn't know any other way.  He's taller, better arm strength, and better anticipation than I gave him credit for in the past.  I wouldn't be upset if the Bills got him at pick 6-12.  He would easily beat out anyone we have.

[Foxx]

33 minutes ago, the skycap said:

Freudian slip 

you do know you can go back and edit it to cut it down, right?

[Augie]

Yes, Rosen just LOOKS like an NFL QB. By biggest concern is concussions. I saw his head bounce on the turf a few times and thought “was THAT one?”

[Mr_Robotulism]

Josh Allen, lol

[Royale with Cheese]

Love this thread Bandit!

[HappyDays]

Man I would trade up to #1 overall for Rosen's talent alone, whatever it takes. But I just don't know if he would be good in Buffalo. I feel like he's the kind of guy that will have a long career if drafted by the Giants or Jets but would get ruined in Buffalo or Cleveland. That's my big concern with him.

 

I would trade up to 5 or below for Mayfield. I wouldn't trade up for anyone else and my personal preference is take Jackson at 12. Nothing in the OP changes my mind about that. Thanks for putting this together bandit.

Edited March 27, 2018 by HappyDays

[BuffaloBillyG]

Very nice thread. I just hope Beane gets the guy he wants at a price that is sensible.

[NeverOutNick]

Great job I agree completely. In summation the top 4 guys are worth the risk and we should do whatever we can to move up for one of these franchise guys and not settle for any other QB in this draft. Go Bills!

[Dr. Who]

37 minutes ago, No Place To Hyde said:

Very nice thread. I just hope Beane gets the guy he wants at a price that is sensible.

I kinda think getting the guy he wants and sensible price are not going to be compatible, but let's hope so.

[billspro]

Great post!!! 

 

Seems like you agree with with most of the media outlets. 

 

This is the deepest QB class since 2004. I'm excited to see who becomes a Bill.

[GunnerBill]

As ever great job. A lot of stuff here that is very, very similar to what I see. I am probably furthest away on Allen because I do think he has fundamental inaccuracy issues but I am hoping to get my reports finished off over the Easter weekend. 

 

Appreciate the work Bandit. 

[Bills Freak]

Thanks, Incredible job,  I had the order slightly different w/ Darnold before Baker but very nice work. I see some hope for Allen (just in case we get him) as most of his film illustrates your points. Be nice to see what  it lloks like for the next tier of Kyle Lauletta, Luke Falk, Mike White.

[SouthNYfan]

2 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

A few folks asked me to post my evaluations of this year’s QB class, so I’ve put this thread together.  What follows are not comprehensive breakdowns of every player, but rather individual games that I feel highlight what each player can do well and needs to improve upon entering the NFL.

 

Note that while I only present one game’s worth of notes on each player, I watched every throw of every video I could get my hands on, and did so multiple times for each guy.  My goal here is to show examples of how I formed my opinion on these players.

 

 

Josh Rosen

 

 

 

Summary: Rosen has everything you want in a franchise QB: plenty of arm, pinpoint accuracy, intelligence, and toughness.  He does get too many of his intermediate throws batted down for my liking, and I worry that he gets spooked by phantom pressure when teams are able to get to him early.  Overall, he’s my QB1 and should easily be a top-5 pick that can start immediately.

 

 

 

 

Baker Mayfield

 

Summary: Mayfield gets knocked for his size, but for a guy that small, he almost never has the ball batted down.  His throwing mechanics are excellent, and he’s very accurate.  My biggest issue is that he needs to get comfortable working the pocket better.  He won’t be able to hold the ball for 3+ seconds like he did routinely in college, and he can’t afford to bail clean pockets in the NFL, where the defenders are too athletic to allow him to roam free untouched.  The arm talent and athleticism, combined with the attitude and desire to win, make him an easy top-10 pick for me.

 

 

 

 

Sam Darnold

 

Summary: There’s so much to like with Darnold: athleticism, accuracy, arm strength, and everything happens fast with him.  If it weren’t for his turnovers and ball security, he’d probably be my QB1…if it weren’t for turnovers and ball security.  He’s got to get that under control.  As it is, he’s good enough to be a top-5 pick.

 

 

 

 

Josh Allen

 

Summary: I keep watching Allen over and over trying to find the “major accuracy issues” that others say he’s got.  I’m sorry, but I don’t see them.  I see a guy that needs to refine his touch throws to the boundary and clean up some occasional footwork issues, but mostly I see a guy that tries to make something out of nothing too often.  Sometimes that’ll present itself via him trusting his arm too much and throwing into danger, but a lot of gunslinger-type QBs do that.  I have him as my QB4, and I’ve given him a top-10 grade; when he’s right, he’s the best QB in the class.

 

 

 

 

 

Mason Rudolph

 

Summary: I have Rudolph rated as a Day 2 QB; a guy that has the potential to be a starter in the NFL.  I don’t like that he doesn’t take any snaps under center, and I don’t see a player that can hit the full spectrum of NFL throws with enough consistency to be someone’s long-term answer at the position.  He is, however, a good enough passer to win games if given enough talent around him, and he does show good ability to make pre-snap reads.

 

Great post.

I edited down to parts I wanted to talk about.

 

BTW thurmanator should read this.

He said that Rudolph will be picked before Rosen and that Rosen is garbage.

 

Rosen: 

Agree on him completely.

I'm a little wary with his injury history, but overall I'm a fan.

 

Mayfield:

Agree on all aspects.

 

Darnold:

The turnovers and consistency leave questions, could get cleaned up and be a force, or they could remain and he will fizzle.

 

Allen:

Agreed again, I think he's got a crazy ceiling, and I am with you on the "not seeing the accuracy issues" that people act like are glaring.

 

Jackson:

Spot on, I deleted his paragraph by accident, but you're correct.

He'd be a lock for top10 next year if he stayed in school.

 

Rudolph:

Again, spot on.

I cannot fathom how we have people on this board who are advocating to take him at freaking #12... It boggles my mind.

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

As ever great job. A lot of stuff here that is very, very similar to what I see. I am probably furthest away on Allen because I do think he has fundamental inaccuracy issues but I am hoping to get my reports finished off over the Easter weekend. 

 

Appreciate the work Bandit. 

 

Stop slacking Gunner.