Bandit's 2018 QB Evaluations

[thebandit27]

Thanks for all the nice comments everyone

 

I'll try to add a few others in the next couple of days

[Elite Poster]

The best post I've seen on this board since I joined. I didn't agree with everything you said, but you were able to back up what you presented and I learned a decent bit about guys I was down on.

 

 

[BadLandsMeanie]

This is a great post. Thank you Bandit27 for all the work you put into it.

[Reed83HOF]

Awesome Job Bandit27!

[JohnC]

52 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Thanks for all the nice comments everyone

 

I'll try to add a few others in the next couple of days

The below link is an segment with Cosell on the Cowherd show. It is an 11:30 piece. It mirrors mostly what you have stated here. Are you sure that you are not really Greg Cosell who uses an alias to post here? 

 

[Juice_32]

This is better than just about everything I've read from the "professionals". 

 

Well done sir, very good.

[C.Biscuit97]

First of all, amazing breakdown. I respect the time you took to make this. You are one of the best posters on this board.

 

my tiny nitpick (and trust me, I don’t expect more) is the one game sample size.  I don’t blame you at all to break it down further because that would take insane amount of time.  And maybe it’s because I’m not a fan of Allen (and for the record, I hope all of these guys become studs), but I think it really favors him.  I like the MAC but it isn’t the same as being a top ranked pass defense in a major conference.  

 

Additionally, to be a franchise qb, it is about consistency. Allen is the type of guy who has all the tools to light it up for a game. It’s how he does in the next game that is the key.  He severely lacks that and it is a huge red flag that one game tape doesn’t fully highlight.  

 

But it excellent work my friend.  

[Mat68]

If this was 2008 i think Rosen would be the unquestioned pick.  Since Big Ben teams love the guys who can make something from nothing and the ultimate embody of that is Allen.   I will peg Beane a genius if he gets Rosen and keeps 22.  For that to happen Rosen would need to get through the first 5 picks.  I think Buffalo wants him but is also scared off by the price tag at 2.  Getting him at 4 is much cheaper and past 5 best case scenerio but for me unlikley.

[C.Biscuit97]

8 minutes ago, JohnC said:

The below link is an segment with Cosell on the Cowherd show. It is an 11:30 piece. It mirrors mostly what you have stated here. Are you sure that you are not really Greg Cosell who uses an alias to post here? 

 

Not trying to be a jerk but what are Cosell’s qb expert qualifications?

[BarleyNY]

Thanks for the hard work. Nice job!

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Not trying to be a jerk but what are Cosell’s qb expert qualifications?

For a very long time he has reviewed tape on players for NFL Films. From what I know about him he is a respected evaluator of players. He has been doing this for a very long time. I'm sure there are people in the business who disagree with some or many of his judgments but I have never heard anyone say that he isn't a credible person in judging talent. This is the time of year where he gets a lot of coverage from many outlets.  

[TigerJ]

Thinking that Buffalo is not really going to get the chance to draft most of the top 4 (one or two may slip down far enough for Buffalo to trade up and get him) I appreciate the film work you did on the next couple of guys (Jackson and Rudolph).  If the Bills end up selecting one of them, it gives me a little more to go on.

[K-9]

5 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

A few folks asked me to post my evaluations of this year’s QB class, so I’ve put this thread together.  What follows are not comprehensive breakdowns of every player, but rather individual games that I feel highlight what each player can do well and needs to improve upon entering the NFL.

 

Note that while I only present one game’s worth of notes on each player, I watched every throw of every video I could get my hands on, and did so multiple times for each guy.  My goal here is to show examples of how I formed my opinion on these players.

 

 

Josh Rosen

 

Game selected: @ USC

Reason: Full complement of throws against team with NFL-level defensive talent

 

Notes (timestamp correlates to beginning of play):

 

0:42 small but important play, as he shows the willingness to take the easy money on 3^rd down

2:06 more easy money; these plays get you into 2^nd and 3^rd downs with manageable to-go yards

2:14 what more do you want from a downfield throw?

2:45 shows great drive off the back foot at the top of his drop

3:12 wish we could’ve seen more of this play, because that’s a Brady-like move to get in position and get the ball snapped to take advantage of defense being disorganized

4:10 what a job to stay on the balls of his feet under pressure, keep composure, and hit the open man for a huge 3^rd-down conversion

5:40 this play is everything…fast process through the blast action, nice zip on the ball, perfect placement for RAC

5:53 I’d like to see him be more consistent with his release point—multiple batted balls on plays where extra pressure comes

6:56 nobody better question the kid’s toughness; he hangs in and makes a great throw on this play

8:46 it’s worth pointing out that on the quick lateral throws, he manages to get the ball out lightning-quick without rushing his delivery; that’s a unique trait that other QBs don’t seem to have

9:42 he doesn’t do this often, but Rosen will trust himself too much at times and throw this kind of ball into traffic

12:15 shame on that WR; that’s a beauty of a back-shoulder throw that should’ve been had

 

Summary: Rosen has everything you want in a franchise QB: plenty of arm, pinpoint accuracy, intelligence, and toughness.  He does get too many of his intermediate throws batted down for my liking, and I worry that he gets spooked by phantom pressure when teams are able to get to him early.  Overall, he’s my QB1 and should easily be a top-5 pick that can start immediately.

 

 

 

 

Baker Mayfield

 

Game selected: Georgia (Rose Bowl – neutral site)

Reason: Facing 2^nd-ranked pass defense in FBS (in terms of YPA)

 

Notes (timestamp correlates to beginning of play):

 

0:00 right away you see the ability to throw accurately on the run

0:35 this here is RPO to perfection; freeze the 2^nd level, recognize the breakdown, and deliver a perfect ball

1:28 great accuracy to all levels of the field

1:51 great execution on the zone read; enough athletic ability to hurt teams when he runs

2:04 it’s not a great throw, but watch the lower-body mechanics in the pocket.  Keeps a nice wide base, stays high on the balls of his feet, constant balance established; this is why he’s so accurate.

2:46 this is one of my issues with Baker: he holds the ball too long.  There’s a wide open target on the sideline, and he needs that ball to come out.  NFL defenses don’t give you all day.

4:43 he has to know when to bail on the play and throw the ball away; can’t take negative plays like that.  I could also pick on him for pulling his eyes down and not seeing the open receiver on the sideline here.

5:36 he did a really nice job at the start of this play to look off the swing route and then climb the pocket...only to bail out the back of a decent pocket and take a sack.

6:50 what a throw…fearless, and it shows that he knows when to push the ball down the field.

7:07 for all the guff I give him about holding the ball, he can really make things happen when he scrambles.  Buys time, rolls left, and makes a brilliant throw across his body beating double coverage for a game-tying TD.

 

Summary: Mayfield gets knocked for his size, but for a guy that small, he almost never has the ball batted down.  His throwing mechanics are excellent, and he’s very accurate.  My biggest issue is that he needs to get comfortable working the pocket better.  He won’t be able to hold the ball for 3+ seconds like he did routinely in college, and he can’t afford to bail clean pockets in the NFL, where the defenders are too athletic to allow him to roam free untouched.  The arm talent and athleticism, combined with the attitude and desire to win, make him an easy top-10 pick for me.

 

 

 

 

Sam Darnold

 

Game selected: vs. Ohio State

Reason: Facing 11^th-ranked pass defense in FBS (in terms of YPA)

 

Notes (timestamp correlates to beginning of play):

 

0:00 ball comes out quickly, with a ton of zip, and right on the money…that’s an NFL throw right there

0:21 can buy time with his athleticism, and keeps his eyes downfield.  His throws on the run are generally great.

0:31 can we all stop and acknowledge this play?  The ball is out in less than 2 seconds, and is placed absolutely perfectly about 25 yards downfield.

1:15 beautiful touch to drop the ball into the space in the zone

1:25 the worst thing with Darnold: turnovers.  This is just a bad read and a bad decision.

2:06 again the pocket mechanics: feet active, finding safety, and delivering quickly and accurately

2:32 even when he has to wait for things to develop, he still executes quickly and efficiently

2:38 fumbles…way too many of them

2:54 the next two throws are Sam Darnold in a nutshell: a spectacular ball that’s out fast to a safe spot where his WR can make a big play, followed by an I’m-way-better-than-you ball into triple coverage that should’ve been picked.

4:14 underrated throw here: rolls away from the pressure and completes across his body to pick up a big first down

5:17 he’s absolutely money on these boundary touch throws

5:31 he’s absolutely trash on protecting the football in the pocket

6:31 climbs to safety and hits another downfield throw

 

Summary: There’s so much to like with Darnold: athleticism, accuracy, arm strength, and everything happens fast with him.  If it weren’t for his turnovers and ball security, he’d probably be my QB1…if it weren’t for turnovers and ball security.  He’s got to get that under control.  As it is, he’s good enough to be a top-5 pick.

 

 

 

 

Josh Allen

 

Game selected: Central Michigan (Potato Bowl – neutral site)

Reason: Facing 8^th-ranked pass defense in FBS (in terms of YPA)

 

Notes (timestamp correlates to beginning of play):

 

0:00 here’s where I see Big Ben comparisons: Ostman has him wrapped up, but Allen is big and strong enough to make a throw anyway (side note: he should’ve just taken the sack)

0:14 and 0:23 are back-to-back plays that look ordinary, but are important for two reasons: (1) they show that Allen’s boundary accuracy isn’t nearly as erratic as some say, and (2) they show that when Allen’s footwork is right (nice wide base, good drive at top of dropback, even stride), his accuracy and placement are fine

0:34 great play fake, and the best throw I’ve seen on film from any of these QBs.  Just sit silently and watch the replay…gorgeous.

1:08 good enough mobility to extend the play, and has the arm to fire a bullet on the run

1:42 is this an erratic throw, or a sloppy route by the WR?  Can’t tell, but Conway looks just a hair slow coming out of his break there

1:55 one thing nobody will knock is this kid’s deep ball; best in the class

2:40 these next 4 plays show you my biggest issue with Josh Allen: stop trying to make things happen when they’re obviously not there.  Throw the ball away and live for the next play…half the reason this kid gets beat up and throws dangerous passes is that he’s constantly trying to do too much.

3:42 takes the contact and still throws a rope to the furthest part of the field

4:00 this here’s a misfire that’s footwork related; that’s gotta get cleaned up

4:06 bad Josh shows up again; stop trying to do too much, Joshua

4:32 watch this throw, and then tell me the kid isn’t accurate; that’s an NFL throw all day

4:59 another issue that he needs to clean up: he occasions to lack a bit of touch on boundary throws

6:01 he has no business being able to make this throw; that’s obscenely good

 

Summary: I keep watching Allen over and over trying to find the “major accuracy issues” that others say he’s got.  I’m sorry, but I don’t see them.  I see a guy that needs to refine his touch throws to the boundary and clean up some occasional footwork issues, but mostly I see a guy that tries to make something out of nothing too often.  Sometimes that’ll present itself via him trusting his arm too much and throwing into danger, but a lot of gunslinger-type QBs do that.  I have him as my QB4, and I’ve given him a top-10 grade; when he’s right, he’s the best QB in the class.

 

 

 

 

Lamar Jackson

 

Game selected: @ Florida State

Reason: Facing 6^th-ranked pass defense in FBS (in terms of YPA)

 

Notes (timestamp correlates to beginning of play):

 

0:00 boy can that ball come out quick

0:24 makes very good zone-reads on back-to-back plays

1:11 my least favorite thing about Jackson is his relative lack of pocket mechanics; his footwork breaks down under pressure (and perceived pressure) and he loses accuracy

1:20 to folks that believe he won’t be a dangerous dual threat in the NFL: that’s Derwin James he just blew by on that play

1:41 nice patience, and a full-field read to find the TE over the middle

3:04 again, the breakdown in pocket mechanics forces an inaccurate throw

4:22 the hidden benefit of having a guy like Jackson is that defenses have to commit players to cover the run threat, which leaves easy swing passes like this one open

4:33 nice job keeping eyes downfield

4:53 gotta get rid of the football

5:23 there’s the bad footwork again, forcing a miss to the boundary, but…

5:30 this throw is a dime; nice touch

6:55 this play makes me think he can be deadly on RPOs in the pros; how do you maintain coverage responsibilities AND commit enough guys to stop Jackson on the ground?

7:59 this is the kind of chain-moving money throw that he’ll have to make on Sundays…apparently he can make it

8:34 this ball is just a smidgeon underthrown, but still a nice touch on a deep throw that could’ve been a game-winner.

8:56 these next 3 plays are a portfolio unto themselves as to why this kid can be special.  It’s crunch time, and he (1) shows a willingness to take what the defense gives him, (2) shows the ability to extend the play and keep his eyes downfield to hit a critical first down, and (3) throws a beautiful deep ball that, again, should’ve been a game-winner.

 

Summary: he’s not a perfect prospect, but Jackson has the goods.  He’s ultra-athletic, and can keep defenses honest, which will really help a team’s running game.  I also like that he’s got the take-what-they-give-you mentality, and if he’s willing to use it he can have early success in the NFL.  I think he should’ve gone back to school to clean up his pocket mechanics and become a more nuanced passer, but right now he’s got a first-round grade from me.

 

 

 

 

Mason Rudolph

 

Game selected: vs. Virginia Tech

Reason: Best pass defense that Oklahoma State faced in FBS (in terms of YPA)

 

Notes (timestamp correlates to beginning of play):

 

0:00 Rudolph’s accuracy is generally very good; placement is solid.  Spoiler alert: he struggles with boundary throws…placement and velocity wane dramatically.

0:29 he knows when to take off with the ball and when to get down

0:50 stands tall in the pocket and delivers a strike into coverage; again, notice the accuracy on interior passes

1:12 here’s a great example of the good and the bad.  The good? Keeps on the balls of his feet, climbs to safety, and finds the open man.  The bad? The loss of velocity and placement on the boundary throw.  You’ll see this continue on 3 of the next 5 throws as well.

2:02 some of the best deep-ball accuracy in the class.

2:37 willingness to hold the ball when necessary; nice job of coming across to find the open man for a key 3^rd down conversion

3:28 another poor boundary throw

3:40 I like the throw, but this ball needs to come out sooner.  Yes, I know, it’s a TD, but he’s not going to get 4 seconds to throw that ball in the NFL

4:52 this shows me that he is indeed able to speed up his snap-to-release process

 

Summary: I have Rudolph rated as a Day 2 QB; a guy that has the potential to be a starter in the NFL.  I don’t like that he doesn’t take any snaps under center, and I don’t see a player that can hit the full spectrum of NFL throws with enough consistency to be someone’s long-term answer at the position.  He is, however, a good enough passer to win games if given enough talent around him, and he does show good ability to make pre-snap reads.

[BADOLBILZ]

 

Excellent analysis, Bandit.

 

We've been in agreement about it........but it takes some guts to actually start a thread where you admit you like all 5 of the top QB prospects.

 

That group of 5 all bring something "franchise" to the table.......they aren't all generational players by any means but any one of them could be a #1 overall pick in a given year.  

 

 

 

[Domdab99]

Very nice, OP. Great breakdowns and comments, and I have to say I think this is the best study of all 6 QBs on the internet. Well done. 

[WideRightRevenge]

Bravo ... great work Bandit ... finally a comprehensive overview ... the big question is who of the top 4 will drop and can we grab them .. based on above .. I'm good with any of the top 4 .. noting Darnold is probably gone .. seems likes its a battle between Mayfield and Allen for us ... unless we trade up to 2 . .which I'm not a fan of.

[dave mcbride]

I watched Lamar Jackson all the way through because honestly I saw very little of him. I must say that outside of his runs, I wasn't particularly impressed. I didn't think he was awful or anything like that, but overall I thought his mechanics, pocket presence, and ball placement were pretty spotty. I hesitate to use this comparison, but he reminded me of Vince Young while at Texas. To be fair, I think Young could have been a solid pro if he had been willing to put the work in. He wasn't, but my understanding is that Jackson is the sort of person who will.

Edited March 28, 2018 by dave mcbride

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

this is exactly what I had seen and read about Tyrod 2.0  - PASS 

 

Summary: he’s not a perfect prospect, but Jackson has the goods.  He’s ultra-athletic, and can keep defenses honest, which will really help a team’s running game.  I also like that he’s got the take-what-they-give-you mentality, and if he’s willing to use it he can have early success in the NFL.  I think he should’ve gone back to school to clean up his pocket mechanics and become a more nuanced passer, but right now he’s got a first-round grade from me.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

I watched Lamar Jackson all the way through because honestly I saw very little of him. I must say that outside of his runs, I wasn't particularly impressed. I didn't think he was awful or anything like that, but overall I thought his mechanics, pocket presence, and ball placement were pretty spotty. I hesitate to use this comparison, but he reminded me of Vince Young while at Texas. To be fair, I think Young could have been a solid pro if he had been willing to put the work in. He wasn't, but my understanding is that Jackson is the sort of person who will.

 

I think this is very fair Dave... although Lamar is definitely a better, more natural, thrower of a ball than Young ever was.  And you nail the key point with Jackson.  He needs to improve still to be a successful NFL Quarterback.  I have said consistently that if he never improves as a passer on the guy he is today he is a backup level NFL QB.  The thing that gives you hope with Jackson is that he has improved year on year and seems the kind of kid that really wants to be great.  If he takes another step as a pro similar to the one he took even between 2016 and 2017 as a college player then you are getting into the territory of solid NFL starter.  If he can make a step as a pro similar to the combined one between 2015 and 2017..... well then you might just have a franchise Quarterback.  

[Mark80]

Nice write up my man.  As you may recall I was on the Mayfield train last year and I remember us both saying that we can't understand why he was getting a round 3-4 grade going into this season.  Hitting a little vaca time next week so I'm planning on digging into QBs more at that point, but here is where I stand right now.

 

1.  Darnold - I think his turnovers can be cleaned up.  He makes some amazing throws, throws into tight windows, willing to take chances...which hurts him sometimes.  I think this can be improved easier than accuracy issues.  It's not that his throws are off, it's that he believes in his ability too much sometimes.  I also think this is a guy teammates can and will rally around.  Hit % - 60%

 

2.  Mayfield - Underrated arm, great accuracy, good mobility, total "it" factor for Buffalo fans.  Buffalo would love this guys attitude I think.  Need to show that attitude at the right time though.  Planting the flag against OSU...awesome, grabbing crotch against at team like Kansas...not so cool.  Hit % - 50%

 

3.  Rosen - He is a feast or famine type guy to me.  I can see the Rodgers comparisons for sure, but I can also see him causing rifts with teammates and fans, and if he doesn't perform early, I can see him fading fast.  Watched him a few times, never did I think, wow, this guy has it.  Need to watch more of him though.  Hit % 40%

 

4.  Jackson - Criminally underrated arm.  Made tremendous strides from last season to this season in his footwork, pocket awareness, and decision making.  This kid knows his flaws and is willing to work tirelessly to fix them.  I disagree that staying in college would have been beneficial.  He needs NFL quality QB coaching now, not another year of subpar college positional development.  His athleticism is game changing if he can learn to slide and run out of bounds instead of taking the hits.  Love his attitude, leadership, demeanor, but he is one ugly mofo.  Hit % - 35%

 

5.  Allen - Cannon arm, but I'm sorry, I do see accuracy issues...a lot of them.  I do think this can be improved...but only to a certain extent.  Guys don't improve their completion % 10 or 15 points going into the NFL, just doesn't happen.  Maybe 5%, but that only takes him to low 60s.  I want mid 60s at a minimum and I don't see it from him.  Hit % - 25% 

 

6.  Rudolph - I barely watched him at all, but from what I was all I could think of was Zach Mettenberger.  A nice arm, but stats inflated by having 2 quality NFL receivers on his squad, the offense they run, and in Rudolph's case he was going up against Big12 defenses who are not known for their quality.  Hit % - 20%.