Convince Me: Why Jackson or Rudolph Should be the Pick at 12 (if no trade up occurs)

[BillsVet]

11 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

 And when has reaching ever worked?  Whitner?  McCargo?  Maybin?  Just as easy to reach at QB as it is at other positions.  We were more than a QB away during the decade of darkness.

 

I've said it repeatedly here: finding your QB is the fastest way to success.

 

Besides, Whitner/McCargo/Maybin were drafted by people masquerading as GM's and inferior HC/front office personnel. They had no plan or a weak one for rebuilding and the results speak for themselves.

 

From 2006-2016 OBD used the draft primarily to fill holes while essentially expecting the one QB they hoped would work actually did. When that option didn't, they looked for one other guy. The only time there's been anything close to an attempt to improve at QB was 2007 when Marv took Edwards. After that, OBD was scared to death of acquiring anyone who would challenge their anointed QB.

 

[Wayne Arnold]

11 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Timmy Chang and Colt Brennan disgree. 

 

I don't think he was elite. He was a good Big XII QB similar to Landry Jones or Bryce Petty. They weren't elite either, and were both 4th round picks.  

 

I agree that none of Rosen, Darnold or Allen were elite either. Not sure any of them are a slam dunk, and I think Allen is going to be a colossal bust. 

 

The thought of trading three firsts, a second, a third, etc. for either Rosen, Allen or Mayfield scares the crap out of me. Rosen and Allen because I just don't think they're good football players (and Rosen is injury-prone). And while Mayfield is a special talent he lacks self-control and imo will struggle in the transition from big man on campus to professional.

.

Rudolph won't get past the Patriots and Belichick will continue torturing us for decades even after Brady retires.

[Buffalo Bills Detective]

5 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

The thought of trading three firsts, a second, a third, etc. for either Rosen, Allen or Mayfield scares the crap out of me. Rosen and Allen because I just don't think they're good football players (and Rosen is injury-prone). And while Mayfield is a special talent he lacks self-control and imo will struggle in the transition from big man on campus to professional.

.

Rudolph won't get past the Patriots and Belichick will continue torturing us for decades even after Brady retires.

But, if WE take Jackson or Rudolph at 12, will WE be the ones now torturing Belichick and the Patriots for the next decade plus?

[Formerly Allan in MD]

2 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Maybe a good QB with a great team wins more than a great QB with no team?

And that goes for any quarterback.  Why is this factor so often ignored during this discussion?

[Rad Likes The Bills]

46 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

I've said it repeatedly here: finding your QB is the fastest way to success.

 

Besides, Whitner/McCargo/Maybin were drafted by people masquerading as GM's and inferior HC/front office personnel. They had no plan or a weak one for rebuilding and the results speak for themselves.

 

From 2006-2016 OBD used the draft primarily to fill holes while essentially expecting the one QB they hoped would work actually did. When that option didn't, they looked for one other guy. The only time there's been anything close to an attempt to improve at QB was 2007 when Marv took Edwards. After that, OBD was scared to death of acquiring anyone who would challenge their anointed QB.

 

So Ej wasn't drafted in 2013? Yes he busted but to act like they havent used ANY resources is just wrong. 

28 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Detective said:

But, if WE take Jackson or Rudolph at 12, will WE be the ones now torturing Belichick and the Patriots for the next decade plus?

You're telling me Jackson wouldn't scare teams with his ability to press the line of scrimmage with designed  qb runs & rpo(run, pass, option)?  People are severely underestimating the impact Lamar will have on the ground game. Think about what Tyrod did now multiply that by 3 and that's what Jackson gives you as a runner. With the added bonus of him actually being a quarterback... IF he ends up in Miami (my biggest fear) then we will be the ones being tortured. 

[Cash]

2 hours ago, Buffalo Bills Detective said:

But, how many running QBs have led their teams to Super Bowl wins in the modern era?

 

Frequently, when people say "running QBs", they mean that to mean ONLY a QB who can run, but can't throw - a la Tim Tebow or Vince Young.  That's begging the question, because obviously a QB who can't throw is about as valuable as a WR who can't catch or a RB who can't run.  But if a WR is a good run blocker, that's an asset.  And if an RB is a good receiver, that's an asset.  And if a QB is a good runner, that's an asset.  Setting aside the question of whether Jackson will be a good NFL thrower (I have no idea, but I'll willing to take the chance), here's some Super Bowl-winning QBs:

 

2013 - Russell Wilson - 539 rushing yards that year, 1 TD

2010 - Aaron Rodgers - 356 rushing yards, 6 TDs

Unless you count 1997 Elway (I don't), you then have to go all the way back to...

1994 - Steve Young - 293 rushing yards, 7 TDs

 

If we expand the list from "win a Super Bowl" to "make a Super Bowl", we also include:

2015 - Cam Newton - 636 rushing yards, 10 TDs

2014 - Russell Wilson - 849 rushing yards, 6 TDs (and should've won if he hadn't passed on the last play!)

2012 - Colin Kaepernick - 415 rushing yards, 5 TDs in 13 games (7 starts)

McNabb's rushing numbers were surprisingly low in 2004, so then we have to go back to...

1999 - Steve McNair - 337 rushing yards, 8 TDs in 11 games

 

Either way, there aren't many, but there also aren't none.  I think it just comes down to this: Good QBs are rare.  Good QBs who are also good runners are even more rare.  But I don't think the Bills should actively avoid a prospect just because he can run.  If they think he can't throw, by all means, take him off the board.  But it's hard enough to find a good QB without artificially limiting the pool.

[SouthNYfan]

52 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Detective said:

But, if WE take Jackson or Rudolph at 12, will WE be the ones now torturing Belichick and the Patriots for the next decade plus?

 

Nope.

I wouldn't trust our franchise to develop/"grow" a freaking Chia pet, let alone a QB.

[Buffalo Bills Detective]

Just now, SouthNYfan said:

 

Nope.

I wouldn't trust our franchise to develop/"grow" a freaking Chia pet, let alone a QB.

Then why not just become a full-time Eagles, Jets or Giants fan?

[SouthNYfan]

Just now, Buffalo Bills Detective said:

Then why not just become a full-time Eagles, Jets or Giants fan?

 

Excuse me?

I didn't know I had to be "100% positive" about a franchise that hasn't had a QB worth a sh*t since Ronald Reagan was in office.

 

You asked a question, to which I answered, and the answer has 3 decades of evidence to support it. 

[Buffalo Bills Detective]

Just now, SouthNYfan said:

 

Excuse me?

I didn't know I had to be "100% positive" about a franchise that hasn't had a QB worth a sh*t since Ronald Reagan was in office.

 

You asked a question, to which I answered, and the answer has 3 decades of evidence to support it. 

Calm down, Bucky (or Jerry, whichever you are).  It's not unreasonable to wonder why you even post on the message board of a team that you have no faith in, instead of becoming a fan of another team.

[RochesterRob]

1 hour ago, Formerly Allan in MD said:

And that goes for any quarterback.  Why is this factor so often ignored during this discussion?

  Because people around here have "shiny and new" syndrome regarding QB's.  I bet their wives (or girlfriends) make a point of not going down past "automobile dealer row" in their community if they can help it  as what is on the lot is automatically better than what the family owns in their minds.  

[SouthNYfan]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Detective said:

Calm down, Bucky (or Jerry, whichever you are).  It's not unreasonable to wonder why you even post on the message board of a team that you have no faith in, instead of becoming a fan of another team.

 

Not Bucky or Jerry.

I don't jump ship when things aren't going great.

I'll not a frontrunner.

I've been rooting for the Bills since I was in kindergarten, through thick and thin, and want them to win.

I guess we should censor all dissenting and negatives opinions regarding the team, right?

We should only allow positive and happy thoughts, right?

Anybody unhappy with the team, and it's decisions, should just leave, right?

You're a jackass**.

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, DFT said:

The funny thing  about this draft is how heavy it is with potential day one starters. There are something like 70 projected potential day one starters estimated in this draft. 

 

Not on my board there isn't.  I decidedly do not think this is a great draft class.  

[DFT]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Not on my board there isn't.  I decidedly do not think this is a great draft class.  

Interesting.  I’m at the very opposite end of the spectrum.  That’s what makes the draft special!  

[GunnerBill]

Just now, DFT said:

Interesting.  I’m at the very opposite end of the spectrum.  That’s what makes the draft special!  

 

Fair enough. Where do you think the great players are? My personal view is that it is a really good linebacker class, a really good running back class and good interior DL and QB classes.  

 

After that - I think it is an average interior OL class; a below average DB class; a poor OT class; a bad class of pass rushers; and a woeful WR class. 

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

I like Rudolph at 12 and wouldn't mind drafting him there. 

[Buffalo Bills Detective]

Just now, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

I like Rudolph at 12 and wouldn't mind drafting him there. 

Thank God you aren't in charge of making personnel decisions for this team.

[DFT]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Fair enough. Where do you think the great players are? My personal view is that it is a really good linebacker class, a really good running back class and good interior DL and QB classes.  

 

After that - I think it is an average interior OL class; a below average DB class; a poor OT class; a bad class of pass rushers; and a woeful WR class. 

I think you have it well-pegged outside of WR being woeful.   I also think this is a very solid TE group.  The DL group is just unreal; best I’ve seen in years.  This is not the draft to draft one of these guys so high because the difference in them is so negligible.  I’m high on this DB class, maybe more than most because of how many quality CB/S transitional players will be available.  RB is similar to APs draft.  2-3 elite guys and 10-13 solid potential starters.   I think this WR class is going to shock people.  I really do!!!

[jrober38]

1 hour ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

The thought of trading three firsts, a second, a third, etc. for either Rosen, Allen or Mayfield scares the crap out of me. Rosen and Allen because I just don't think they're good football players (and Rosen is injury-prone). And while Mayfield is a special talent he lacks self-control and imo will struggle in the transition from big man on campus to professional.

.

Rudolph won't get past the Patriots and Belichick will continue torturing us for decades even after Brady retires.

 

Landry and Petty both got past the Patriots numerous times so I don't see how you can draw that conclusion. 

 

Belichick likes guys who have elite accuracy in the short and intermediate passing game. That's what Brady is, and that's what Garoppolo offers. That's the most important thing they value in QBs because their offense is predicated around getting the ball out accurately and on time so that receivers can run after the catch. 

 

Rudolph is best at chucking the ball down the field, so I don't think there's a fit there at all.

 

Rudolph would have made sense to Bruce Arians. No idea if there's anyone else left in the NFL who runs something similar. 

Edited March 21, 2018 by jrober38

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

1 minute ago, Buffalo Bills Detective said:

Thank God you aren't in charge of making personnel decisions for this team.

I know, we would only have Wilson, Cousins or Carr as a QB if I was.

[BigDingus]

They shouldn't. 

[Buffalo Bills Detective]

Just now, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

I know, we would only have Wilson, Cousins or Carr as a QB if I was.

Someone's sure full of himself.

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, DFT said:

I think you have it well-pegged outside of WR being woeful.   I also think this is a very solid TE group.  The DL group is just unreal; best I’ve seen in years.  This is not the draft to draft one of these guys so high because the difference in them is so negligible.  I’m high on this DB class, maybe more than most because of how many quality CB/S transitional players will be available.  RB is similar to APs draft.  2-3 elite guys and 10-13 solid potential starters.   I think this WR class is going to shock people.  I really do!!!

 

Thanks. I'm guessing all your extra "day 1 starters" are at WR and DB then.  I would be shocked if this is a good WR group. I think it sucks.  I think the DB group (beyond Fitzpatrick and James) is full of guys who either only transition as nickel corners at the NFL level or who are very precise scheme fits. 

 

You are probably closer to the media consensus.  I have heard a lot of folks say they think this is a deep talented class.  I just don't see it.  

 

EDIT: I should say TE is the one position I am really behind on. Haven't done much work at all on that position group yet.  Even the top guys are a bit of a blindspot for me.  

Edited March 21, 2018 by GunnerBill

[DFT]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

I'm guessing all your extra "day 1 starters" are at WR and DB then.  I would be shocked if this is a good WR group. I think it sucks.  I think the DB group (beyond Fitzpatrick and James) is full of guys who either only transition as nickel corners at the NFL level or who are very precise scheme fits. 

Most of my day 1 are on defense, but I’m speaking collectively about what I’m hearing from others.  The consensus seems to be that this is an outstanding draft, especially for teams needing Defense, QB or RB.   There’s always going to be disagreement, but should be a good one!

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

2 hours ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

He was an elite college quarterback. Much more so than Rosen, Darnold, and Allen. You can't be an elite college quarterback without elite traits.

You really don't want to hear what almost all of the scouts say do you? And that is that Rudolph is not an elite QB. You dodged our earlier discussion trying to use your opinion as evidence. Now you're trying to tell us that the top guys as rated by the scouts weren't elite. I'm sorry but this can't be taken seriously. Just take your Loss and drop the argument.

[Tyrod's friend]

I just think there's so much value in this draft, especially between picks 12 and 60. I'd strongly consider moving down from 12, accumulating a higher second round pick (and even, use 2019 draft capital to do so). If we could increase our draft picks in the first and second round by one or two picks, we'd be able to totally restock this team. 

It is entirely possible that you could be looking at almost an entire starting lineup under the age of 25 in 2018 - several of them, budding stars. You would have considerable flexibility to offer Matt Ryan a fully guaranteed, three year contract valued at $115MM. I'm pretty sure he'll be at least as good as Sam Darnold over the next few years. 
 

I'm not saying don't move to 2; but if the Browns are in love with the same QB you want or the Giants want to rape you, take a flyer on the likes of a QB no sooner than the 4th round (White) and stock the pond. 

Just take Falk or similar in the 4th or later. 

Edited March 21, 2018 by Tyrod's friend

[DFT]

Just now, Tyrod's friend said:

I just think there's so much value in this draft, especially between picks 12 and 60. I'd strongly consider moving down from 12, accumulating a higher second round pick (and even, use 2019 draft capital to do so). If we could increase our draft picks in the first and second round by one or two picks, we'd be able to totally restock this team. 

It is entirely possible that you could be looking at almost an entire starting lineup under the age of 25 in 2018 - several of them, budding stars. 
 

I'm not saying don't move to 2; but if the Browns are in love with the same QB you want or the Giants want to rape you, take a flyer on the likes of a QB no sooner than the 4th round (White) and stock the pond. 

If the Browns are in love with the same QB you are, and the Giants want to rape you, just take Falk or similar in the 4th or later. 

It’s not a terrible idea, to move down, it’s just wildly unpopular, with the QB talent at the forefront and that arguably being the biggest need.  If you can’t secure one of the big 4 though and the prototypical LB or WR is gone, definitely trade down.  Agreed!

[oldmanfan]

The best reason to take one?  All the people here saying Jackson or Rudolph will stink are the ones who will go nuts criticizing OBD if either one winds up being the guy for some team.  And it would shut them up if you take one of them

[Boatdrinks]

They should take Jackson at 12 if no teams are willing to trade out of their spots and assuming Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Allen are gone. Why? Because they don't have a QB. The potential payoff is greater at that spot than any other player remaining on the board not named Barkley. Find a QB. A huge part of the reason the Bills haven't had a QB for so long isn't a lack of moving up, but a lack of taking a chance while you have it. Keep taking QBs until you hit on one. You miss all the shots that you don't take, as Wayne Gretzky once said. As for Rudolph , he lacks any great upside potential. I'd take a different QB that was available after round 1 as well, just not Rudolph. 

[SouthNYfan]

5 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

The best reason to take one?  All the people here saying Jackson or Rudolph will stink are the ones who will go nuts criticizing OBD if either one winds up being the guy for some team.  And it would shut them up if you take one of them

 

I would criticize them solely on the fact that it's their job to scout and draft, and they made an error, but I would also bow down and eat crow yo the guys saying they should draft one of them.

[Wayne Arnold]

37 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Landry and Petty both got past the Patriots numerous times so I don't see how you can draw that conclusion. 

 

Belichick likes guys who have elite accuracy in the short and intermediate passing game. That's what Brady is, and that's what Garoppolo offers. That's the most important thing they value in QBs because their offense is predicated around getting the ball out accurately and on time so that receivers can run after the catch. 

 

Rudolph is best at chucking the ball down the field, so I don't think there's a fit there at all.

 

Rudolph would have made sense to Bruce Arians. No idea if there's anyone else left in the NFL who runs something similar. 

 

Landry and Petty were never considered first-round or even second-round talents. Neither had nearly the same size and downfield accuracy that Rudolph has. Landry never finished better than 24th in the country in passer rating.

 

I don't know why you keep bringing them up. Because they played in the Big 12? So did Pat Mahomes, Baker Mayfield and Andy Dalton. Jimmy Garappolo, Jared Goff, Case Keenum and Deshaun Watson all played in similar spread/shotgun/no-huddle offenses in college.

 

The days of writing off quarterbacks just because of the system they played in are over.

[Solomon Grundy]

5 hours ago, Buffalo Bills Detective said:

What makes him spectacular though?  Because he can run?

He simply makes plays!! With arm or legs, he's a PLAYMAKER!! 

5 hours ago, DFT said:

I disagree heavily and respectfully.  I love Petrino, but  my opinion is he left a lot of the development on the table (which is truly unlike him) and took advantage of his QBs natural athleticism. This kid has infinite untapped potential as a QB. 

He's IMPROVED every season under Petrino!! Check the stats!! Ask the "experts"!!

[RochesterRob]

57 minutes ago, DFT said:

It’s not a terrible idea, to move down, it’s just wildly unpopular, with the QB talent at the forefront and that arguably being the biggest need.  If you can’t secure one of the big 4 though and the prototypical LB or WR is gone, definitely trade down.  Agreed!

  I kind of like the idea of trading down out of 12 if Mayfield and Roquan Smith are off the board then.  Especially if is a good bet Evans is there at 19 or so.   

[DFT]

9 minutes ago, the skycap said:

He simply makes plays!! With arm or legs, he's a PLAYMAKER!! 

He's IMPROVED every season under Petrino!! Check the stats!! Ask the "experts"!!

Improved stats don’t always equal improved mechanics.  It sometimes means that the coach is doing a good job building around their QB and masking difficiencies, as is (in my opinion) the case with Jackson.   

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

12 is too high for Rudolph. If Rosen or Darnold are there, take them. (They won’t be though, Darnold won’t for sure) otherwise BPA

 

 

[DFT]

3 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  I kind of like the idea of trading down out of 12 if Mayfield and Roquan Smith are off the board then.  Especially if is a good bet Evans is there at 19 or so.   

You are not alone there!!!   Jackson would be VERY hard for me to pass up at 12 though, knowing how highly regarded some of the top teams hold him.

[RochesterRob]

1 hour ago, DFT said:

It’s not a terrible idea, to move down, it’s just wildly unpopular, with the QB talent at the forefront and that arguably being the biggest need.  If you can’t secure one of the big 4 though and the prototypical LB or WR is gone, definitely trade down.  Agreed!

  It's only wildly unpopular with several extremely vocal posters.  I would say based on casual observation that the board is almost split 50/50 between going up and adopting more or less a BPA available strategy.  In any event there seems to be only 100 active posters or so on a daily basis here so I would hate to think that OBD would go out of its way to please any one block of poster.

[DFT]

Just now, RochesterRob said:

  It's only wildly unpopular with several extremely vocal posters.  I would say based on casual observation that the board is almost split 50/50 between going up and adopting more or less a BPA available strategy.  In any event there seems to be only 100 active posters or so on a daily basis here so I would hate to think that OBD would go out of its way to please any one block of poster.

You are correct.  They have a non-fan/Analyst facing strategy and they are guarding it better than any previous regime.  They’re all in on their direction and regardless of what happens, it won’t please everyone.   Anyone who comes forward and says they know what Buffalo is doing is just speculating (poorly).  1 Bills is air tight, which tells me they are locked on to someone specifically.   But again, that’s strictly a guess on my part

[Alphadawg7]

5 hours ago, Buffalo Bills Detective said:

Interested in hearing your arguments as to why you feel that Beane should take either Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph at 12, in the event that the Browns and Giants are unwilling to trade out of their spots.

 

There are all kinds of threads on here making their case for each of those QB's...just saying.

[jrober38]

1 hour ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Landry and Petty were never considered first-round or even second-round talents. Neither had nearly the same size and downfield accuracy that Rudolph has. Landry never finished better than 24th in the country in passer rating.

 

I don't know why you keep bringing them up. Because they played in the Big 12? So did Pat Mahomes, Baker Mayfield and Andy Dalton. Jimmy Garappolo, Jared Goff, Case Keenum and Deshaun Watson all played in similar spread/shotgun/no-huddle offenses in college.

 

The days of writing off quarterbacks just because of the system they played in are over.

 

LOL

 

Who the hell cares about where a guy is projected. Matt Barkley was supposed to be a top 10 pick. He went in the 4th round.  Bryce Petty was supposed to be a 2nd round pick; he went in the 4th round. Where arm chair GMs project a guy to go is about as useless a piece of info as their is. All that matters is where a guy actually gets picked on draft day. 

 

I bring those things up because their pros and cons as prospects are essentially the same.

 

They all had good size.

They all had outstanding college production. 

They all had limited mobility. 

They all had mediocre arms.

They all had limited experience reading the field.

 

Aside from Dalton who was pretty average, all of the guys you named had one elite thing going for them, whether it be accuracy, arm strength or mobility; they all had at least one trait that was well above average if not elite. 

 

Rudolph doesn't have elite accuracy (his deep ball is very good, short and intermediate throws are less consistent).

He doesn't have elite mobility.

He doesn't have elite arm strength. 

 

He's just a guy. You might love him but I see a guy who is going to be nothing more than a backup in the NFL. He was a good college QB who played in a super QB friendly system surrounded by really good NFL talent. Maybe he'll be really good, but I'm not betting on it. I don't see any difference between him and the majority of NFL prospects who never amount to anything.