Why not give McCarron an honest chance?

[RochesterRob]

1 minute ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

You can disagree all you like, but the Bills' 2018 receiving corps will not come close to matching the talent level of AJ Green, Marvin Jones, Mohamed Sanu, and Tyler Eifert.

  Are you saying that Rosen or Darnold will raise the game of our WR's?  That the potential of those QB's will not be held back by our WR's?  If we gamble away our picks in a move up then they won't be there to grab any help.

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, RochesterRob said:

  Are you saying that Rosen or Darnold will raise the game of our WR's?  That the potential of those QB's will not be held back by our WR's?  If we gamble away our picks in a move up then they won't be there to grab any help.

 

Absolutely I am saying they have the talent to potentially elevate those around them.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Just now, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Absolutely I am saying they have the talent to potentially elevate those around them.

Why doesn't that apply to AJ as well?    He has the same pedigree of National Championships 

 

[Jauronimo]

All we are saying is give AJ a chance

All we are saying is give AJ a chance

[RochesterRob]

4 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Absolutely I am saying they have the talent to potentially elevate those around them.

  Using the word "potentially" does not instill the highest level of confidence in me that this will happen.  At this point with McC already aboard I would rather see what he has learned from the bench plus seeing that at least his completion percentage is stable.

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, RochesterRob said:

  Using the word "potentially" does not instill the highest level of confidence in me that this will happen.  At this point with McC already aboard I would rather see what he has learned from the bench plus seeing that at least his completion percentage is stable.

 

That's why guys like Rosen and Darnold get drafted very high based on projections of what they can be at the NFL level.  Nothing is guaranteed, but you take the shot on talented players and especially so at the critical QB position. 

[RochesterRob]

8 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

That's why guys like Rosen and Darnold get drafted very high based on projections of what they can be at the NFL level.  Nothing is guaranteed, but you take the shot on talented players and especially so at the critical QB position. 

  At this point the most certain thing is McC's completion percentage is fairly stable and is reasonably healthy which says something about his ability to process information as a play unfolds and then make a decision.  At a minimum it is something that can be built upon.  

[26CornerBlitz]

3 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  At this point the most certain thing is McC's completion percentage is fairly stable and is reasonably healthy which says something about his ability to process information as a play unfolds and then make a decision.  At a minimum it is something that can be built upon.  

His presence will have no impact on the team's quest to draft a QB.

[RochesterRob]

2 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

His presence will have no impact on the team's quest to draft a QB.

  Probably not but that is not the same thing as saying we will mortgage the farm to go up to 2.  Waiting for a guy to fall to us at 12 or 22 or even wait until the second round is just as likely.  In a lot of ways taking White in the second makes the best use of risk/reward/ potential lost not selecting another player.

[Figster]

17 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

I don’t know if “the process” involves giving up an entire draft to grab a QB on a team with an inadequate WR and LB corps, and a questionable O line.

If you want to win a championship these holes have to be filled properly.

 

 The Eagles are a great example of what good coaching, good systems and good supporting cast can do for a football team. 

[without a drought]

Give him 3 years and if that doesn't work they can always take a qb in 2021.

 

 

I can't see how this could fail.

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

His numbers far exceed the guy he's replacing.   And that in and of itself is good enough!!

 

I want to hear the 26 take on  how Jimmy G has proven himself.  

AJ averaged 184 yards passing in his starts. Tyrod averaged over 200. He is 2-2. I’m not sure what numbers you are referring to (unless you are talking Jimmy G)? Jimmy G is really good and I’m thrilled to have him out of the division. 

[26CornerBlitz]

4 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

AJ averaged 184 yards passing in his starts. Tyrod averaged over 200. He is 2-2. I’m not sure what numbers you are referring to (unless you are talking Jimmy G)? Jimmy G is really good and I’m thrilled to have him out of the division. 

 

You are wasting time and keystrokes. 

[RochesterRob]

44 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

AJ averaged 184 yards passing in his starts. Tyrod averaged over 200. He is 2-2. I’m not sure what numbers you are referring to (unless you are talking Jimmy G)? Jimmy G is really good and I’m thrilled to have him out of the division. 

   The only way this means a lot is if one is plugged into the circumstances of the other for a fairly direct comparison.  Are you saying that Tyrod averaged 200 yards in his first four starts?  Did Tyrod face the league leader in passing yards defended such as AJ did with Denver?  Sounds like we are back to trading opinions again.

 

[Kirby Jackson]

8 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

   The only way this means a lot is if one is plugged into the circumstances of the other for a fairly direct comparison.  Are you saying that Tyrod averaged 200 yards in his first four starts?  Did Tyrod face the league leader in passing yards defended such as AJ did with Denver?  Sounds like we are back to trading opinions again.

 

That was a response to a quote “his numbers far exceeded the guy that he was replacing.” That isn’t an exchange of opinion. That is fact checking. If that post was a response to Taylor and McCarron it isn’t true. That’s why I asked the question. 

[buffalobloodfloridahome]

I say we bet the house move as far up as possible and get our Guy who then will compete with McCarron for the job may the better man win. Better to have two chances at a Franchise QB than one. Quit trying to horde picks all that's what the Browns do the same team that is Betting on Tyrod to bring them to the promise land smh.

[RochesterRob]

19 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

That was a response to a quote “his numbers far exceeded the guy that he was replacing.” That isn’t an exchange of opinion. That is fact checking. If that post was a response to Taylor and McCarron it isn’t true. That’s why I asked the question. 

  "His numbers far exceeded the guy that he was replacing" is not my quote.  You needed to post that to the person making that quote for them to draw a counter opinion based on what ever analysis they made.  Further, citing "facts" is of extremely limited value in situations such as this.  I did not come up with the "information" that Tyrod "averaged" over 200 yards per game  while McC averaged 184 yards per game.  How statistically significant is that?  That could be one catch for 16 yards difference per game.  Is that on the QB or the receiver or the DB that made an excellent play?  If one wanted to be scientific about it you subject each to the same circumstances to be able to judge relative ability using facts.  Otherwise we are back to exchanging opinions based on performances that are not linked to each other in a meaningful way.  Even if we went back to 2015 and noted that each player faced the league's pass defense leader in Denver that only tells us so much as McC did not face Denver with the Bills team and Tyrod did not face Denver with the Cincy team.  Even 26 wants to make that argument as he repeatedly wants to point out that McC's accomplishment was made with Cincy's receivers versus our core.

[Kirby Jackson]

5 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  "His numbers far exceeded the guy that he was replacing" is not my quote.  You needed to post that to the person making that quote for them to draw a counter opinion based on what ever analysis they made.  Further, citing "facts" is of extremely limited value in situations such as this.  I did not come up with the "information" that Tyrod "averaged" over 200 yards per game  while McC averaged 184 yards per game.  How statistically significant is that?  That could be one catch for 16 yards difference per game.  Is that on the QB or the receiver or the DB that made an excellent play?  If one wanted to be scientific about it you subject each to the same circumstances to be able to judge relative ability using facts.  Otherwise we are back to exchanging opinions based on performances that are not linked to each other in a meaningful way.  Even if we went back to 2015 and noted that each player faced the league's pass defense leader in Denver that only tells us so much as McC did not face Denver with the Bills team and Tyrod did not face Denver with the Cincy team.  Even 26 wants to make that argument as he repeatedly wants to point out that McC's accomplishment was made with Cincy's receivers versus our core.

It was quoted in the post that you responded to!! You were the one that took it as something else. You responded to my response to that quote. It’s not my fault that you didn’t read it. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

2 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

That's why guys like Rosen and Darnold get drafted very high based on projections of what they can be at the NFL level.  Nothing is guaranteed, but you take the shot on talented players and especially so at the critical QB position. 

They can also be a huge failure based on projections.  

[RochesterRob]

4 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

It was quoted in the post that you responded to!! You were the one that took it as something else. You responded to my response to that quote. It’s not my fault that you didn’t read it. 

  And I am being extremely consistent in that pointing out both times that a comparison means so much more when both QB's are plugged into the same test using the same supporting cast and same opponents.  

[Kirby Jackson]

Just now, RochesterRob said:

  And I am being extremely consistent in that pointing out both times that a comparison means so much more when both QB's are plugged into the same test using the same supporting cast and same opponents.  

At no point did I say you don’t need context. I responded to a very specific claim “his stats far exceeded the previous guy.” That isn’t a claim that has shades of gray. It is true or it is false. That is what I responded to. You chose to interpret a true or false statement. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

AJ averaged 184 yards passing in his starts. Tyrod averaged over 200. He is 2-2. I’m not sure what numbers you are referring to (unless you are talking Jimmy G)? Jimmy G is really good and I’m thrilled to have him out of the division. 

Lets honestly compare 4 games to 44.   

 

2017 - 186.6 to 184.   

 

Panthers game 107

Falcons game 164

Bengals game 139

Saints  game 129

NE Pats 1 - 85 through 3 QTR's 

Playoff game 133

 

[Success]

I think McCarron could be a big and welcome surprise.  He has almost all of the skills you need, but most importantly, he has that competitive fire.  

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

Lets honestly compare 4 games to 44.   

 

2017 - 186.6 to 184.   

 

Panthers game 107

Falcons game 164

Bengals game 139

Saints  game 129

NE Pats 1 - 85 through 3 QTR's 

Playoff game 133

 

Again, you made the comparison not me. I responded to your claim.

[Alphadawg7]

I think we should give AJ a chance, but for me the best way to do that is to sit tight and take a QB at 12 for competition.  I would rather NOT trade a ton of assets to move up and instead take Baker, Lamar, or Allen at 12...at least one will be there, maybe even 2 or all 3.  

 

Take the QB there, let them and AJ compete, and then also load up on talent around the team with the other picks.  That is now my preference although I would support a trade up still, but with he way FA has happened, I think the pressure to trade up has decreased.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

After 3 seasons of TT and diminishing passing 184 isn't a bad place to start.  

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

After 3 seasons of TT and diminishing passing 184 isn't a bad place to start.  

That isn’t “far exceeding the previous guy.” That was what you said. I simply answered that it wasn’t true. Now you are trying to move the goal posts. 

[Success]

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I think we should give AJ a chance, but for me the best way to do that is to sit tight and take a QB at 12 for competition.  I would rather NOT trade a ton of assets to move up and instead take Baker, Lamar, or Allen at 12...at least one will be there, maybe even 2 or all 3.  

 

Take the QB there, let them and AJ compete, and then also load up on talent around the team with the other picks.  That is now my preference although I would support a trade up still, but with he way FA has happened, I think the pressure to trade up has decreased.

I agree.  I’ll support what they choose to do, but I’m hoping they keep the picks at this point.  We could really take a leap with the players we could draft, and still get a solid QB prospect.

[reddogblitz]

3 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

You can disagree all you like, but the Bills' 2018 receiving corps will not come close to matching the talent level of AJ Green, Marvin Jones, Mohamed Sanu, and Tyler Eifert.

 

Probably not, but good QBs don't need good WRs.  Or so I read here often.  So we should be good.

[frogger]

Here's my thought process, if the player (QB) that we want is not there, trade down...tell everyone that Buffalo wanted AJ from the beginning and we played it correctly.  But trade down and get another 1st for next year, maybe someone wants Jackson and needs to leap frog Arizona.  Still keep two 1st,  pick up a 3rd this year and another 1st next year (like we did last year) Maybe the saints want their QB of the future?  Or stay put if it mean we can get one of the two outstanding ILBs. 

If AJ is good, that's great, gamble paid off!  If he is awful, then we'll have a chance to draft Lock or Patterson, or whoever is the top QB prospect next year...regardless, that QB, will be put into a situation where we have a boat load of cap room to spend on vets and a very talented young team and a bridge QB still (AJ or Peterman).  I hate putting it off for another year, but its this or we reach on a QB we are not sure of.

 

hopefully our guy is there at 12 though

[Tyrod's friend]

19 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

He was in Saban’s pro-style offense.  He played well in big games, won two national championships.  Is used to taking snaps under center.  Has a 66.9% accuracy percentage which is better than every other QB prospect in this year’s draft besides Mayfield.  He has now had a couple of years to sit behind Andy Dalton, a solid NFL QB, and acclimate to the NFL, and has looked good in spot duty when Dalton was out.

 

I think going up to pick 2 is going to take all of our draft capital.  I’d rather give McCarron an honest chance to be our QB.  Surround him with talent from this year’s draft and let’s see what the kid can do.

 

Accuracy percentages 2017

Mayfield. 70.1%

Rosen      62.6%

Darnold   63.1%

Allen        56.3%

Jackson  59.1%

 

McCarron career 66.9%

Don't stop there.

He replaced a QB that could have arguably been considered within the top 5 of all NFL QBs in 2015; he went on to complete 65% of his passes in his first year. He won two of three games, and the put in a reputable performance against the Steelers that in reality, the team lost through no fault of AJs. I'm pointing this particular point out because some people are wanting to look at McCarron and compare him to Tyrod. How absurd. The comp in statistics would be to the player he replaced, working in the exact same situation.

It is reasonable enough to say that he was put in a hard situation and the Bengals absorbed very, very little headwinds from it. Did he not pass for a lot of yards? Surely anyone that offers that has got to be joking. Their team was in a playoff run, the top QB was replaced, and we're expecting the OC to put in an aggressive offensive scheme of downfield passing??? I digress.

He heavily criticized his college HC - a legend. Still, after that Nick Saban came to his defense. I suppose that is irrelevant.  

You could go to NFL Tracker.  In 2014, he was rated 5.7 (Eventual NFL Starter). The "other guys"? Bortles, Bridgewater, Carr and Garapolo were all rated between his 5.8 and 6.2. So, three guys that led their teams to the NFL playoffs and a $27MM guy - and that last guy was a career backup until when? 

Let's stop and take a look at Jimmy Garapolo's numbers. 
 

Jimmy Garoppolo Passing Statistics for Career Games 2014 to 2016

 

		Games		Passing																Passing
Year	Tm	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD
2014-2016	NWE	17	2	2-0-0	63	94	67	690	5	5.3	0	0	37	7.3	8.4	11.0	40.6	106.2		8	51	6.26	7.25	7.8

He had a total of 94 attempts, nearly all of them not coming until 2016. Just to comp ... and remember, NFL Tracker considered the two QBs to be nearly identical in overall rating.
 

A.J. McCarron Passing Statistics for Career Games 2014 to 2015

 

		Games		Passing																Passing
Year	Tm	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD
2014-2015	CIN	7	3	2-1-0	79	119	66.4	854	6	5	2	1.7	66	7.2	7.4	10.8	122.0	97.1		12	63	6.04	6.27	9.2

Maybe you see a lot of difference there. I don't. They are different players with different limitations but there isn't a reason in heck why a two-time NCAA champion that is supported by Nick Saban, that has had his own level of success in the NFL, that completes passes at a 66% rate for his entire career and admirably led his team down the stretch to a home game against the Steelers ... can't do well in Buffalo. 

If only you surround him with talent. He's not going to do it on his own.

[Dr. Who]

24 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I think we should give AJ a chance, but for me the best way to do that is to sit tight and take a QB at 12 for competition.  I would rather NOT trade a ton of assets to move up and instead take Baker, Lamar, or Allen at 12...at least one will be there, maybe even 2 or all 3.  

 

Take the QB there, let them and AJ compete, and then also load up on talent around the team with the other picks.  That is now my preference although I would support a trade up still, but with he way FA has happened, I think the pressure to trade up has decreased.

I am okay with this strategy.  I am more inclined to make a small trade up in the seven to ten range if it will ensure getting a qb we are particularly interested in.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

22 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

That isn’t “far exceeding the previous guy.” That was what you said. I simply answered that it wasn’t true. Now you are trying to move the goal posts. 

Did I actually say far exceeding?     4 games one a playoff game for AJ.  There can be hope.  The other guy... none.

 

The kids in the draft.... a big unknown 

 

 

 

[Kirby Jackson]

Just now, ShadyBillsFan said:

Did I actually say far exceeding?     4 games one a playoff game for AJ.  There can be hope.  The other guy... none.

 

The kids in the draft.... a big unknown 

 

 

 

 

4 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

His numbers far exceed the guy he's replacing.   And that in and of itself is good enough!!

 

I want to hear the 26 take on  how Jimmy G has proven himself.  

That is what I responded to. 

[ndirish1978]

The fear in this thread is so palpable it's nauseating 

[MAJBobby]

20 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

He was in Saban’s pro-style offense.  He played well in big games, won two national championships.  Is used to taking snaps under center.  Has a 66.9% accuracy percentage which is better than every other QB prospect in this year’s draft besides Mayfield.  He has now had a couple of years to sit behind Andy Dalton, a solid NFL QB, and acclimate to the NFL, and has looked good in spot duty when Dalton was out.

 

I think going up to pick 2 is going to take all of our draft capital.  I’d rather give McCarron an honest chance to be our QB.  Surround him with talent from this year’s draft and let’s see what the kid can do.

 

Accuracy percentages 2017

Mayfield. 70.1%

Rosen      62.6%

Darnold   63.1%

Allen        56.3%

Jackson  59.1%

 

McCarron career 66.9%

So Drafting a Rookie QB is not giving McCarron (a guy that could not beat out a BLAH Dalton) an honest chance???

[PauleeeWalnuts]

20 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

I don’t know if “the process” involves giving up an entire draft to grab a QB on a team with an inadequate WR and LB corps, and a questionable O line.

Agreed here, I hope they stay at 12 and use all of their picks to bolster the roster. They should be able to grab some quality starters with these picks instead of sending away all those picks they worked so hard to obtain. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

28 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

 

That is what I responded to. 

 you got me for not being clear.    

 

184 is far better than the crappy 6 games I listed of under 150 and for a 7 year pro. 

 

In 3 games of his sophomore season here are some stats ...

 

6 TD to 2 INT   -  The TD rate of 2 per game exceeds what TT did in 2017 of.8 TD per game,  it exceeds the .9 TD per game in 2016 (with Sammy) and it also exceeds the 1.2 TD per  game in 2015 (with Sammy).   More passing attempts will net more INT's.  

 

Playoffs - Lost to Pitt 18-16.  16 pts for a 2nd year guy , not 3.  16 far exceeds 3 

[Kirby Jackson]

28 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

 you got me for not being clear.    

 

184 is far better than the crappy 6 games I listed of under 150 and for a 7 year pro. 

 

In 3 games of his sophomore season here are some stats ...

 

6 TD to 2 INT   -  The TD rate of 2 per game exceeds what TT did in 2017 of.8 TD per game,  it exceeds the .9 TD per game in 2016 (with Sammy) and it also exceeds the 1.2 TD per  game in 2015 (with Sammy).   More passing attempts will net more INT's.  

 

Playoffs - Lost to Pitt 18-16.  16 pts for a 2nd year guy , not 3.  16 far exceeds 3 

So compare all of AJ’s starts to Tyrod’s worst 6 games? That doesn’t seem to be right. He averaged 201 yards passing as the Bills QB. Why try to manipulate the stats instead of using the average? That’s obviously misleading (and disingenuous). There is no need to twist things to create a story. Let the facts speak for themselves.

[26CornerBlitz]

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

So compare all of AJ’s starts to Tyrod’s worst 6 games? That doesn’t seem to be right. He averaged 201 yards passing as the Bills QB. Why try to manipulate the stats instead of using the average? That’s obviously misleading (and disingenuous). There is no need to twist things to create a story. Let the facts speak for themselves.

 

I tried to tell you earlier.