Why not Andrew Luck? The Colts are in a great position.

[GreggTX]

1. They're drafting their QB.

2. See #1.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

13 minutes ago, dubs said:

Anytime you can introduce some snark to a conversation, you gotta do it.

 

Oh, no.  I pass up far, far more opportunities to add snark than I take, believe me.  But Jauronimo nailed the silliness level of this one.

[Mr. WEO]

28 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Yep.  It seems one of these let's trade for Luck threads pops up every couple of days. 

 

 

 

Tipster's special power seems to be posting redundant threads a few days after they have been posted by others...

 

Check out his Cutler piece. 

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

Tipster's special power seems to be posting redundant threads a few days after they have been posted by others...

 

Check out his Cutler piece. 

 

Yeah. Both were rather hurl worthy.

[dubs]

6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

You seem to be an earnest poster who is not just trying to stir sh** so I'll give you a little more answer from the Colts perspective

1) the Colts would NOT free much cap space by trading Andrew Luck at this time.  They would take on an accelerated cap hit of $19.2M dollars and save ony $5.2M, which, if you've looked at the QB FA market, is not quite enough to buy a bag of slightly used QB Cheetos.

2) Andrew Luck was (and if his shoulder heals, is) a true generational QB talent.  He is one of the 4-5 QB in the league who can actually carry a team.  If you want to actually understand how he is different from this year's crop of good QB prospects, read Andrew Luck's draft profile.  Now read Sam Darnolds and Josh Rosen's profiles.  See the differences?  If there is any chance Luck can recover, you do not give that up on the 50/50 chance that whoever is left at #3 will become a good QB.

 

From a reputational standpoint, the Colts GM has nothing to gain and plenty to lose by making this trade - the best thing that could happen is that Luck is never himself again for the new team, and the new guy is able to play capably in the NFL, in which case they'd look smart except to the team they fleece.  The worst thing that could happen is that Luck recovers and plays well, the draftee flames out like roughly half of the top 5 picks do, and they look like fools.

 

See my other post to you.

 

 

They would save 5 in ‘18, but 14, 22, and 21 in the subsequent 3 years. They would acquire a couple more picks in this and possible next years draft. 

 

I think it’s possible and that the colts would be smart to consider it.  

 

As an aside, I do sincerely appreciate the well thought out response. Reason I don’t come to the board very often anymore is how infested it’s become with snark, etc...

[Kwai San]

31 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I respectfully disagree.  Luck, if healthy, is a far better QB than Foles has proven to be.

 

Foles had one great season, lost his job and was a backup came in and struggled at the end of 2017 regular season and then got hot in the playoffs.  I would say the odds are that going forward Foles will play more like the backup that he's been for most of his career instead of the guy who had a miracle season and a 3 game hot streak at a very opportune time.

 

Correction - one good game - one bad 1/2 game, one mediocre game and 2 lights out games.........that being said - Foles can stay right where he is IMO. 

[BillsFan130]

Colts aren’t going to trade Luck.

 

He gets a lot of unfair criticism around here in my opinion.

 

This guy is a good QB with elite talent.

 

No way I see the Colts shopping him 

[Figster]

Cam...

 

...writting is on the wall...

 

...TSW...

 

 

[dave mcbride]

29 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

You seem to be an earnest poster who is not just trying to stir sh** so I'll give you a little more answer from the Colts perspective

1) the Colts would NOT free much cap space by trading Andrew Luck at this time.  They would take on an accelerated cap hit of $19.2M dollars and save ony $5.2M, which, if you've looked at the QB FA market, is not quite enough to buy a bag of slightly used QB Cheetos.

2) Andrew Luck was (and if his shoulder heals, is) a true generational QB talent.  He is one of the 4-5 QB in the league who can actually carry a team.  If you want to actually understand how he is different from this year's crop of good QB prospects, read Andrew Luck's draft profile.  Now read Sam Darnolds and Josh Rosen's profiles.  See the differences?  If there is any chance Luck can recover, you do not give that up on the 50/50 chance that whoever is left at #3 will become a good QB.

 

From a reputational standpoint, the Colts GM has nothing to gain and plenty to lose by making this trade - the best thing that could happen is that Luck is never himself again for the new team, and the new guy is able to play capably in the NFL, in which case they'd look smart except to the team they fleece.  The worst thing that could happen is that Luck recovers and plays well, the draftee flames out like roughly half of the top 5 picks do, and they look like fools.  You know, worse than how San Diego did when Brees turned all-world in N'Orleans, even WITH Rivers becoming a very talented QB?  Replace Rivers with Trent Edwards and that's how it could go.

 

 

See my other post to you.

 

Caveat: I don't think this trade happens for a host of reasons. But you're leaving out one potential factor: the possibility of a completely broken relationship between Luck and team management, including the owner. There have been signs that their relationship has nosedived despite the fact that they're saying the right things now. My hunch is that Luck doesn't trust Irsay and is suspicious of what is in truth has been a terrible organization for years. They may get better with a new gm/coach, but the damage may be done.

[RyanC883]

1 hour ago, Tipster19 said:

The more time that passes and the Bills don’t do anything to address the QB position the more it convinces me that they definitely have a plan in place. I mean who gets rid of their starting QB and not have one in place?? Before anyone suggests that whatever rookie that is suppose to be taken in the draft, none of them are projected to be NFL ready right out of the gate. Is Peterman suppose to start?? I think not. Are the remaining FA QBs the answer? I would think not because that would be like writing off the season even before the season starts. Trading for Foles wouldn’t be hateful, maybe that’s the plan but looking at where the Colts are at in the draft (#3 overall pick) and all the draft capital that we have why couldn’t we make a run at Luck? Between last year’s publicity (team propaganda) and having a lunatic owner in Irsay I would say that anything is possible. Already having the #3 pick overall and all the prime draft picks that we could provide, the Colts would sure be able to address a lot of their team’s weaknesses. So far McBeane has shown they are not at all intimidated by making big decisions. 

 

Lucks' recent rehab setback has me worried.  But, if they get Luck, they can draft Falk or White later on in the daft to have a Luck/rookie/Peterman combo.  That's not bad at all.  And if Luck returns to form, we are set at QB. 

[whatdrought]

I'm not picky when it comes to certain positions (such as linebacker), but when it comes to Qb's I absolute insist they have at least two fully functional arms.

 

I guess I could compromise and lessen my insistence to at least having a functional dominant/throwing arm. 

[NoSaint]

1 hour ago, dubs said:

I actually agree with much of this. From the Colts perspective, it’s actually an optimal time to do this. They can free the cap space, grab a new franchise QB on rookie pay scale, rid themselves of any shoulder concerns, and pick up a couple draft picks to fill more holes. 

 

From the Bills perspective, they keep more of their draft picks than if they were trading up to top 3 and can handle the cap hit. And get a proven commodity. 

 

I actually think the price to make this happen wouldn’t be too expensive and a huge win win for both teams. 

 

 

 

As these scenarios go it’s one of the more practical. If they love a young guy and are worried about either the shoulder or relationship it’s a good chance to make a move that might make sense for both sides

4 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

I'm not picky when it comes to certain positions (such as linebacker), but when it comes to Qb's I absolute insist they have at least two fully functional arms.

 

I guess I could compromise and lessen my insistence to at least having a functional dominant/throwing arm. 

 

The flip side is do you end up like the saints of the last decade by picking up a young qb that’s shown capable but is in a unique situation (both injury and ability to replace with a high pick).

 

its a risk but you almost never acquire a slam dunk qb

[BillsVet]

46 minutes ago, Tipster19 said:

That wasn’t very nice.

 

Tipster: You've been here for a long time and I want to be open about this. These types of threads have little value because there's nothing closely resembling facts to present here.

 

Others have already outlined the financial ramifications to the team and of course, it would require Indianapolis to use that pick on another QB to replace Luck.

 

Sometimes I think TBD is becoming Twitter with all these out there theories without any real reporting about who's getting traded and why it makes sense. It doesn't make any sense, neither for the Bills nor the Colts.

[Koko78]

The smart play for the Colts is to draft a QB at 3, and wait to see if Luck can recover his form.

 

If Luck does, then you have the option of trading either Luck or the new QB for picks next year. If Luck cannot regain his form, then you've got a quality successor in hand to build around, without having to waste a season or scramble to overpay for a replacement.

[dubs]

9 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

Tipster: You've been here for a long time and I want to be open about this. These types of threads have little value because there's nothing closely resembling facts to present here.

 

Others have already outlined the financial ramifications to the team and of course, it would require Indianapolis to use that pick on another QB to replace Luck.

 

Sometimes I think TBD is becoming Twitter with all these out there theories without any real reporting about who's getting traded and why it makes sense. It doesn't make any sense, neither for the Bills nor the Colts.

 

I strongly disagree with this statement. 

 

As as I outlined earlier, there are lots of reasons this makes sense for both parties. 

 

The biggest hurdles, in my opinion, would be:

 

- fear factor: Ballard being second guessed

- do the Colts love a QB coming out that they think they can get (say Mayfield)

- trade terms

 

 

[dave mcbride]

21 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

Tipster: You've been here for a long time and I want to be open about this. These types of threads have little value because there's nothing closely resembling facts to present here.

 

Others have already outlined the financial ramifications to the team and of course, it would require Indianapolis to use that pick on another QB to replace Luck.

 

Sometimes I think TBD is becoming Twitter with all these out there theories without any real reporting about who's getting traded and why it makes sense. It doesn't make any sense, neither for the Bills nor the Colts.

That's not really fair. As I understand it, the scenario is that the Bills get Luck and Reich gets Foles. I'm not saying that trade makes perfect sense for Indy, and I don't expect it to happen. That said, I do believe that all is not right in the relationship between Luck and the franchise, and the changes they just made might not be enough; it may be beyond fixability at this point. The other thing I go back to is McDaniel backing out. Why would he do that? It could be duplicity and/or second thoughts, but perhaps he learned something about Luck not being there for long because he's demanding to get out of there. My guess is that Luck is perfectly fine (it's a common enough injury) and I wonder if he's playing a game with the franchise to force his way out. I guarantee you that he's unhappy with how things went down there in the last couple of years. 

 

P.S. I also think that the franchise is unhappy with Luck's will-he-or-won't-he status for the first half of last season. His absence and the haziness surrounding his injury cost a bunch of people their jobs. There could well be bad blood on the other end too. Bear in mind that elite qbs can do this. Palmer forced his way out of Cincy because he despised the organization.

Edited March 14, 2018 by dave mcbride

[Tatonka68]

Never say never, could be possible but not likely.

[USABuffaloFan]

1 hour ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Reich would probably be just as happy with Foles as Luck.  

Foles and drafting a QB 3rd. Buffalo's 12 pick and 1st next year, a 2nd and 3rd for Luck allows Indy to get Foles too. Saying this though means just as likely we get their 3rd pick if any of this gets discussed. I would rather not risk the picks but if it lands Luck, things get interesting. If Buffalo can get there QB and still have a 1st, 2nd and 3rd I am game, any more than that NO WAY! Not worried about next years picks with all that Free agent money available.

Edited March 14, 2018 by USABuffaloFan

[Hapless Bills Fan]

39 minutes ago, Koko78 said:

The smart play for the Colts is to draft a QB at 3, and wait to see if Luck can recover his form.

 

If Luck does, then you have the option of trading either Luck or the new QB for picks next year. If Luck cannot regain his form, then you've got a quality successor in hand to build around, without having to waste a season or scramble to overpay for a replacement.

 

This, unless they are confident Luck will be back in which case use pick #3 to put more pieces around him and take a QB later.

[Kaenon]

He can't throw the ball...

[Koko78]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This, unless they are confident Luck will be back in which case use pick #3 to put more pieces around him and take a QB later.

 

That would be the best-case scenario for the Colts, but I do not believe it is likely they will know by the end of April. He just began being able to make throwing motions with his shoulder what, a month ago?

[USABuffaloFan]

1 hour ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I respectfully disagree.  Luck, if healthy, is a far better QB than Foles has proven to be.

 

Foles had one great season, lost his job and was a backup came in and struggled at the end of 2017 regular season and then got hot in the playoffs.  I would say the odds are that going forward Foles will play more like the backup that he's been for most of his career instead of the guy who had a miracle season and a 3 game hot streak at a very opportune time.

Reich coached Foles as OC. That is the difference. He knows Luck has 4 years left. If Indy likes one of these QB's a 3 way trade could happen. Foles has 1 year left cheap and Indy in 2019 can go with new QB and have 2 - 1st rounders. Indy is at least 2-3 years of rebuilding, why waste Luck and why get 2-3 more wins and damage draft status and NOT make the playoffs. Reich I am sure wants his style of players!

[26CornerBlitz]

Rapoport: Watson expected back for Texans' OTAs, Colts expect Luck for training camp (0:57)
 Mon, Mar 12, 2018

NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reports that the Houston Texans expect QB Deshaun Watson to be ready for OTAs, and the Indianapolis Colts expect Andrew Luck to be back for the team by training camp.

[akm0404]

If they'd trade him, we don't want him.  If they want him, we can't have him.  /thread

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, dubs said:

They would save 5 in ‘18, but 14, 22, and 21 in the subsequent 3 years. They would acquire a couple more picks in this and possible next years draft. 

 

Dubs: how much cap space do the Colts have?  Do you know?  Do they need to clear cap space?  (They would actually clear more than that, but cap space is far from the Colts most pressing need

 

1 hour ago, dubs said:

I think it’s possible and that the colts would be smart to consider it.  

As an aside, I do sincerely appreciate the well thought out response. Reason I don’t come to the board very often anymore is how infested it’s become with snark, etc...

 

OK, you appreciate the response, but did you actually USE it to go look at things like the Colt's cap space (one click from the link I included), Lucks draft profile vs 2 top rated QB this year, to actually like check your thoughts against various factors?

[Worstcaseontario]

I for one hope we get the lord and savior luck

[SouthNYfan]

This has his hashed out numerous times.

 

If the colts think his arm is healthy, then he isn't available, at all, period.

 

IfLuck is available, it means the colts think his arm is shot, so why would you want him at that point?

 

#lockthethread

[dubs]

16 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Dubs: how much cap space do the Colts have?  Do you know?  Do they need to clear cap space?  (They would actually clear more than that, but cap space is far from the Colts most pressing need

 

 

OK, you appreciate the response, but did you actually USE it to go look at things like the Colt's cap space (one click from the link I included), Lucks draft profile vs 2 top rated QB this year, to actually like check your thoughts against various factors?

 

Why would I click through for things I already know?  They have a lot of projected cap space available, they could get more. More is better. 

 

Luck’s college draft profile isn’t that useful of a data point now. The other draft profiles are useful, but you don’t know what the Colts draft profile of these QBs are and that’s all that really matters. 

 

Its not complicated. It’s also not likely to happen. But I don’t think its insane for the Colts to make a trade involving luck. 

 

The primary issue is you need two GMs with tons of conviction and fortitude. And get them to agree on a price. Today’s NFL is highly devoid of that. 

 

 

[DKBills25]

I think as soon as glen passes his pyshical we make the trade into top 5 

but I also think we are gonna trade for a QB

[BillsFanForever19]

Why not Tom Brady?

[Kaenon]

31 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

This has his hashed out numerous times.

 

If the colts think his arm is healthy, then he isn't available, at all, period.

 

IfLuck is available, it means the colts think his arm is shot, so why would you want him at that point?

 

#lockthethread

I would have to agree with this logic.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

14 minutes ago, dubs said:

Why would I click through for things I already know?  They have a lot of projected cap space available, they could get more. More is better. 

 

Now see, this is why people get snarky.  They try to be nice, and be all educational and point stuff out, and this is the kind of goofball crap that slings back at them.

"why would I click through things I already know"?  Um, maybe because you don't know as much as you think you do?  Maybe because if someone thinks you are flogging a silly point and offers you gouge, you should, oh, I don't know, have a look maybe?

 

What is the cap floor for an NFL team?  No, more is not always better.  Moreover the point of the NFL is to win games, not accumulate cap space.

 

14 minutes ago, dubs said:

Luck’s college draft profile isn’t that useful of a data point now. The other draft profiles are useful

 

The point is for you, and the things you already know, to compare what was said about Luck pre-draft vs what is being said about this year's QB pre draft - so as to better understand why Luck was seen as a generational QB, and this year's draft crop are seen as good QB this year, some of whom might become NFL starters.  The difference is quite stark, even stunning.

[dubs]

7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Now see, this is why people get snarky.  They try to be nice, and be all educational and point stuff out, and this is the kind of goofball crap that slings back at them.

"why would I click through things I already know"?  Um, maybe because you don't know as much as you think you do?  Maybe because if someone thinks you are flogging a silly point and offers you gouge, you should, oh, I don't know, have a look maybe?

 

What is the cap floor for an NFL team?  No, more is not always better.  Moreover the point of the NFL is to win games, not accumulate cap space.

 

 

The point is for you, and the things you already know, to compare what was said about Luck pre-draft vs what is being said about this year's QB pre draft - so as to better understand why Luck was seen as a generational QB, and this year's draft crop are seen as good QB this year, some of whom might become NFL starters.  The difference is quite stark, even stunning.

 

You really didn’t offer much of anything that’s not general knowledge, that’s the point. I wasn’t being snarky at all. Just fully aware of the information you passed along. Don’t agree with your conclusions. Why is that hard to understand?  Passing along a few links to data that isn’t hard to find doesn’t make you an authority on the topic. Fully respect your opinion on this and am fairly certain most people would agree with your take, im not one of them. 

 

Again, not saying I think it’s likely. But I certainly think it makes a ton of sense for both teams, given all of the current circumstances. 

[SouthNYfan]

3 hours ago, dubs said:

 

Anytime you can introduce some snark to a conversation, you gotta do it. 

 

But seriously though, I don’t think the price would be as high as people think.  If the colts have any concerns at all about luck, this is about their only chance to reboot.  Certainly worth considering from their end. 

 

The price would be huge.

If they don't think he's healthy long term, then why would we want to give up anything for him??

 

If they think he is healthy, then he's not available.

 

It's simple, really it is.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 minutes ago, dubs said:

 

You really didn’t offer much of anything that’s not general knowledge, that’s the point.

 

 

Great, then glad you agree with that 'general knowledge' that Luck is a generational talent at QB - one of the 4-5 best in the league when healthy - and a team would be foolish to give him up (if he can come back) for a chance at a draftee evaluated as much lower quality than Luck was, and some extra cap space they don't need.

 

And they say folks with opinions just can't be persuaded!

 

Saying stuff that contravenes 'general knowledge' and dismissing a post which takes the time to point out what the problems with a chap's opinions may be  - and you are being very dismissive here and in your last post - is one of the reasons for so much snark on this board - people get worn down.   And if "passing along a few links (that you admit you didn't bother to look at) doesn't make you an authority" isn't snarky, I don't know what is.

 

 

 

Edited March 14, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[dave mcbride]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Great, then glad you agree with that 'general knowledge' that Luck is a generational talent at QB - one of the 4-5 best in the league when healthy - and a team would be foolish to give him up (if he can come back) for a chance at a draftee evaluated as much lower quality than Luck was, and some extra cap space they don't need.

 

And they say folks with opinions just can't be persuaded!

Foles is the relevant comparison, not draftees. Take a look at Foles' religiousity (he plans on being a minister) and then think about Frank Reich - his ultra-religious OC from last year, after all. The Bills don't have a credible qb on the roster. Something is up, I suspect, although I don't know what's going to happen, obviously.

Edited March 14, 2018 by dave mcbride

[dubs]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Great, then glad you agree with that 'general knowledge' that Luck is a generational talent at QB - one of the 4-5 best in the league when healthy - and a team would be foolish to give him up (if he can come back) for a chance at a draftee evaluated as much lower quality than Luck was, and some extra cap space they don't need.

 

And they say folks with opinions just can't be persuaded!

 

There is much more to it and I don’t care to explain it, again. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

50 minutes ago, DKBills25 said:

I think as soon as glen passes his pyshical we make the trade into top 5 

but I also think we are gonna trade for a QB

 

Who?  And if we're making a trade into the top 5 - who or what are we trading?

2 minutes ago, dubs said:

 

There is much more to it and I don’t care to explain it, again. 

 

You didn't explain the first time, so there's no again.  Just stated an opinion, misstated that the Colts would clear a ton of cap (they won't, this year) and implied that's something they need (they don't), and mis-equated the value of an unproven draftee QB with (if healthy) a generational top prospect.  I'm done though.

 

5 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Foles is the relevant comparison, not draftees. Take a look at Foles' religiousity (he plans on being a minister) and then think about Frank Reich - his ultra-religious OC from last year, after all. The Bills don't have a credible qb on the roster. Something is up, I suspect, although I don't know what's going to happen, obviously.

 

The Bills lack of a credible QB is not the Colts problem.

 

And if Frank Reich drives (whatever input he has into) player personnel decisions with his religion instead of cold hard football evaluation, he'll be out of the league PDQ

Edited March 14, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[dave mcbride]

12 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Who?  And if we're making a trade into the top 5 - who or what are we trading?

 

You didn't explain the first time, so there's no again.  Just stated an opinion, misstated that the Colts would clear a ton of cap (they won't, this year) and implied that's something they need (they don't), and mis-equated the value of an unproven draftee QB with (if healthy) a generational top prospect.  I'm done though.

 

 

The Bills lack of a credible QB is not the Colts problem.

 

And if Frank Reich drives (whatever input he has into) player personnel decisions with his religion instead of cold hard football evaluation, he'll be out of the league PDQ

Check out the other threads. I strongly believe that the relationship between Luck and the Colts management has been terrible the last couple of years and may be fundamentally broken -- on both sides. Ask yourself: why did Josh McDaniels bail at the last second? As for the Bills' lack of a credible qb at the moment, do you really think they're simply trying and failing with regard to every credible option right now? This is a team with a plan and with the space to do to what they want. 

Edited March 14, 2018 by dave mcbride

[dubs]

6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

You didn't explain the first time, so there's no again.  Just stated an opinion, misstated that the Colts would clear a ton of cap (they won't, this year) and implied that's something they need (they don't), and mis-equated the value of an unproven draftee QB with (if healthy) a generational top prospect.  I'm done though.

 

 

You didn't explain the first time, so there's no again.  Just stated an opinion, (incorrect, it was a potential scenario) misstated that the Colts would clear a ton of cap (they won't, this year - as far as I know, 2019, 2020, and 2021 matter) and implied that's something they need (they don't - really?  20m can buy a lot of help to build a team), and mis-equated the value of an unproven draftee QB with (if healthy) a generational top prospect (Luck is fantastic, but he’s fallen a bit short of the predraft evaluation for years ago) I'm done though (sounds good!)

 

also and plus - the colts could be getting a couple valuable draft picks in return.