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Draft QB: Worst Case Scenario


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Let's say the Bills don't land any notable FA QB which is highly probable.  They give Tyrod his $6M roster bonus.  They figure they will be drafting one to compete with Tyrod & Peterman. 

 

Now for the potential worst case sinario:

 

The TOP QB's all get drafted before we pick at 21 & 22.

Mock 1.0:

Browns-Darnold

Giants-Rosen

Broncos-Allen

Jets-Mayfield

Cardinals-Jackson

Chargers-Rudolph

 

Now what?  

 

My suggestion is we move up no matter the cost to get one of the top 4 QB's, otherwise we might have to panic and move up anyway and give up a lot for a Rudolph or Jackson if they start dropping off the board which is very possible.  Might as week move up and get one of the top 4.  If all 6 QB's get drafted before us and we sit still,  we would be screwed this season!  

 

Thoughts Mr. Beane??

Edited by BuffaloButt
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Rock with Tyrod for another year. I wouldn't like it, but I am certain he is better than at least 3 of those guys on that list. The Eagles would try to fleece us for Foles. 

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OBD is not going to throw all their eggs in the basket to move up IMO.

 

If a top 4 QB they like slips to 10, sure maybe. 

 

I see a VET QB, hopefully not Tyrod. 

 

Draft Mike White or Kyle Lauletta to compete with Peterman.

 

 

 

Edited by 1ZAYDAY1
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Two thoughts come to mind... I remember looking closely at the transcripts from Beane's interviews at the combine this past week. One comment he made that I found very interesting was that there were "6 -- maybe even 7" QBs that could go in the first round this year. Of course, he did not say who they were. But I wonder if the Bills have a higher grade on, say, Mike White and would be willing to take him with one of those 1st round picks. Still, I would hope that he would be available in the 2nd round.

 

Otherwise, I have to look at it this way: if the top 20 picks really are comprised of 6 QBs, then that must mean that only 14 other players at non-QB positions were drafted. That gives the Bills the opportunity to take the 15th and 16th best non-QB prospects in the draft. It would not be the end of the world to address other needs (LB, DT, DL, WR, OL...) with those two picks.

Edited by 2003Contenders
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4 minutes ago, 1ZAYDAY1 said:

OBD is not going to throw all their eggs in the basket to move up IMO.

 

If a top 4 QB they like slips to 10, sure maybe. 

 

I see a VET QB, hopefully not Tyrod. 

 

Draft Mike White or Kyle Lauletta to compete with Peterman.

 

 

 

 

It will take a lot to move up in this draft . Some risky QB will be there at 21.  If Cousins goes to Vikings , 3 FA QBs might be there. 

 

Mike White would be worth a gamble in rd2. I would not give more then a 2nd rd for Foles.  Dang , I wish we took Mahomes or Watson.

 

I was expecting a poor 2017 season and much better draft position for 2018 to get a QB in this draft.

 

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Worst case scenario is we give up a first for Nick Foles IMO and remember, just cause there is 5-6 highly rated QBs, it doesn't mean that the folks at OBD have them all rated highly, so keep that in mind as well. 

 

I think it's very possible only 2 QBs go in the top 10, that's the best case scenario. Darnold, Rosen, Allen or Mayfield are there at 10. Could happen.

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30 minutes ago, ALF said:

 

It will take a lot to move up in this draft . Some risky QB will be there at 21.  If Cousins goes to Vikings , 3 FA QBs might be there. 

 

Mike White would be worth a gamble in rd2. I would not give more then a 2nd rd for Foles.  Dang , I wish we took Mahomes or Watson.

 

I was expecting a poor 2017 season and much better draft position for 2018 to get a QB in this draft.

 

Devil's advocate here:  We could just as easily be saying "I'm glad we didn't draft Watson" had he had a bad season.  Because he didn't, we now say "Dang, I wish we took him".  Hindsight is an electron microscope.  Mahomes, however, hasn't proven anything to me yet.  Let him get a couple of full seasons under his belt first before we start chewing on our own guts for not drafting him.  One last thing on Watson; he may not be the same QB after coming back from his injury.  I, for one, will wait until after this draft before I start on the 'Should've, would've, could've" bandwagon.

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50 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

6 QBs aren't going in the first round.

 

Rudolph is a 3rd/4th round calibre prospect. 

You are probably correct, but teams like to reach for QBS. 

 

I think at least 5 go in the first round, and Rudolph will go late first or early-mid 2nd

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11 minutes ago, billsfan11 said:

You are probably correct, but teams like to reach for QBS. 

 

I think at least 5 go in the first round, and Rudolph will go late first or early-mid 2nd

 

This isn't really true. A lot of QBs projected to go in the 1st round over the past few years went much later than expected. 

 

In a year when there are 4 really good QB prospects, and a couple really good free agent options, no one is going to reach for Rudolph when it's all said and done. He's the same calibre of prospect as Landry Jones or Bryce Petty, who were both 4th round picks. 

 

Roughly seven NFL teams need a QB, and with Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Allen, Cousins, Keenum, Bridgewater, Bradford and possibly Foles all being options, no one is going to go out of their way to draft Rudolph whose ceiling is quite low. 

Edited by jrober38
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1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

 

This isn't really true. A lot of QBs projected to go in the 1st round over the past few years went much later than expected. 

 

In a year when there are 4 really good QB prospects, and a couple really good free agent options, no one is going to reach for Rudolph when it's all said and done. He's the same calibre of prospect as Landry Jones or Bryce Petty, who were both 4th round picks. 

 

Roughly seven NFL teams need a QB, and with Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Allen, Cousins, Keenum, Bridgewater, Bradford and possibly Foles all being options, no one is going to go out of their way to draft Rudolph whose ceiling is quite low. 

It goes both ways of course. There are many times where teams will reach, and there are going to be times where players fall.

 

I am willing to bet that at least 5 QBS go in the 1st round this year.

 

I am not saying Rudolph will go in the 1st as I think he will go in the 2nd, but I wouldn't be surprised if he did get drafted in the 1st.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

 

This isn't really true. A lot of QBs projected to go in the 1st round over the past few years went much later than expected. 

 

In a year when there are 4 really good QB prospects, and a couple really good free agent options, no one is going to reach for Rudolph when it's all said and done. He's the same calibre of prospect as Landry Jones or Bryce Petty, who were both 4th round picks. 

 

Roughly seven NFL teams need a QB, and with Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Allen, Cousins, Keenum, Bridgewater, Bradford and possibly Foles all being options, no one is going to go out of their way to draft Rudolph whose ceiling is quite low. 

That makes a lot of sense!!  Thanks for your comment!

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Taylor for another year, build up the roster with young talent with the 4 picks we have in the first 2 rounds and 8 picks we have in the first 5 rounds, re-sign Joe Webb for one more year as our 3rd string QB, and then go for broke for a QB through FA, trade, or draft next year.

 

I think this is something McDermott and Beane are willing to do.  The fact that McDermott said "we are not as far along as everyone thinks we are" is a big indicator to me that he wants to build the core of this team, which as of last September was the 2nd oldest roster in the NFL and 9th oldest in terms of starting lineup.

 

This board will go nuts, but I think it's probably option B or option C rather than option "HELL NO!!!" as some think it is.

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