Jackson, Rudolph or Pass

[1billsfan]

 

I voted for Jackson, simply because he just looks like he's going to become the best NFL QB that comes out of this draft. The other guys have really weird quirks to them...

 

Rosen has a real screwy personality

Mayfield does too, along with his being very short

Allen's college stats are ridiculously pitiful next to Jackson's

Darnold looks just "meh"

 

As for Rudolph, I'd rather go for the dynamic "high ceiling" star QB player in Jackson, and not the supposed safe "could become a solidly average NFL starter" player in Rudolph.

 

One thing for sure, this QB class does not seem "one for the ages" type of class as it was billed. I'm actually glad the Bills aren't drafting very high and forcing themselves into choosing from the QBs currently ranking as top 10. Our head coach and GM are from the Panthers, so they know you can have success a multidimensional QB talent like Cam Newton. They saw it up close. So if they did take Jackson, they could keep Taylor as the placeholder and have a solid QB group of Jackson, Taylor and Peterman for 2018.

 

 

[Kelly the Dog]

4 hours ago, DCOrange said:

 

ProFootballFocus tracks Drop %:

Mayfield: 8.0%

Rosen: 7.5%

Rudolph: 6.6%

Lamar: 8.5%

Darnold: 4.3%

Allen: 4.8%

 

This is a percentage of drops compared to all attempts (with spikes and throw-aways, and I THINK balls batted at the line removed). I think it's important to note that because for example, Allen's drop % looks very low because his throws are so often off target, but I imagine if you were looking specifically at drop % of catchable balls, Allen's would be much more in line with his peers because his WRs were god awful.

 

But point being, compared to their total adjusted attempts numbers, Lamar had a higher percentage dropped than any of the other top prospects.

 

Rudolph's drop % should be in the minuses. His WR make so many obscene receptions that they way outnumber the amount of drops.

[Jay_Fixit]

3 hours ago, jrober38 said:

Allen's drop percentage makes his completion percentage even more scary. 

Guy is just not an accurate passer. 

 

[MrEpsYtown]

 

2 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

When was Bryce Petty drafted?

 

That'll give you an idea of when Rudolph will get picked...

 

I agree with this sentiment. Some people were mentioning Petty as a late one, early 2 and he went in the fourth. I think Rudolph goes in the fourth. I just don't see it with him. I'm not sure what the appeal is here. I'm not drafting either of these guys in the first, but at least Jackson has some high end potential. Rudolph is big and put up impressive numbers...he's also slow, played in a simple offense, has shoddy footwork, and an ok arm. Like many have said, he is a bigger, slower Bryce Petty in my opinion. 

 

There are the top four that go in the first. I think someone sneaks up and grabs Jackson at the end of the first with the extra year option. I really think that Allen, Darnold, and Rosen are the only first rounders, but Mayfield will be over drafted and Jackson sneaks in the first round as well. Then I honestly think we wait awhile for Rudolph, Falk, Ferguson and such to go. Those guys are 3-4s for me. Just my opinion, but I'm having hard time with all the Rudolph love. I just don't get it. 

 

I actually like Drew Lock more than some of the second tier.

Edited January 19, 2018 by MrEpsYtown

[jrober38]

15 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

 

I agree with this sentiment. Some people were mentioning Petty as a late one, early 2 and he went in the fourth. I think Rudolph goes in the fourth. I just don't see it with him. I'm not sure what the appeal is here. I'm not drafting either of these guys in the first, but at least Jackson has some high end potential. Rudolph is big and put up impressive numbers...he's also slow, played in a simple offense, has shoddy footwork, and an ok arm. Like many have said, he is a bigger, slower Bryce Petty in my opinion. 

 

There are the top four that go in the first. I think someone sneaks up and grabs Jackson at the end of the first with the extra year option. I really think that Allen, Darnold, and Rosen are the only first rounders, but Mayfield will be over drafted and Jackson sneaks in the first round as well. Then I honestly think we wait awhile for Rudolph, Falk, Ferguson and such to go. Those guys are 3-4s for me. Just my opinion, but I'm having hard time with all the Rudolph love. I just don't get it. 

 

I actually like Drew Lock more than some of the second tier.

 

I rate Mayfield very highly but otherwise I agree. I think Allen will be over drafted, but I think he's a horrible prospect. He's not a good football player. 

 

The top prospects are Rosen, Darnold and Mayfield. Jackson has upside. Allen will get grossly over drafted due to his measurables.

 

Past them there's a big drop off. 

Edited January 20, 2018 by jrober38

[DCOrange]

17 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

 

I agree with this sentiment. Some people were mentioning Petty as a late one, early 2 and he went in the fourth. I think Rudolph goes in the fourth. I just don't see it with him. I'm not sure what the appeal is here. I'm not drafting either of these guys in the first, but at least Jackson has some high end potential. Rudolph is big and put up impressive numbers...he's also slow, played in a simple offense, has shoddy footwork, and an ok arm. Like many have said, he is a bigger, slower Bryce Petty in my opinion. 

 

There are the top four that go in the first. I think someone sneaks up and grabs Jackson at the end of the first with the extra year option. I really think that Allen, Darnold, and Rosen are the only first rounders, but Mayfield will be over drafted and Jackson sneaks in the first round as well. Then I honestly think we wait awhile for Rudolph, Falk, Ferguson and such to go. Those guys are 3-4s for me. Just my opinion, but I'm having hard time with all the Rudolph love. I just don't get it. 

 

I actually like Drew Lock more than some of the second tier.

I think Lock will be a first rounder next year. Wish he had stayed in this year’s draft to give Buffalo another option. 

[Green Lightning]

On 1/18/2018 at 8:36 AM, Dalton said:

I don't know if Rudolph is a good choice but Jackson is a bad choice IMO.  His accuracy issues would need a substantial improvement, not a marginal tweak.

 

Agree 100%.  Rudolph had a 65% pass completion, which is one of the thresholds that you'd like to see. TD to interception ratio was really good as well. Although I hate to even say this but he doesn't look like he sees the whole field - EJ Style. I haven't watched him enough to see if he has slow eyes or not!

[swnybillsfan]

55 minutes ago, Green Lightning said:

 

Agree 100%.  Rudolph had a 65% pass completion, which is one of the thresholds that you'd like to see. TD to interception ratio was really good as well. Although I hate to even say this but he doesn't look like he sees the whole field - EJ Style. I haven't watched him enough to see if he has slow eyes or not!

i don't really know anything about these guys other than what i hear on the radio and read in these posts. but i do like what i have heard about rudolph, and i also like that he could be had without trading anything away. he seems to be a very "safe" or "boring" pick, but i don't see anything wrong with that. if he can execute the offense that our coaches want to run, i would sign up for that. a lot of people have opined that he is a rich man's peterman. i think that could be ok. 

[BeginnersMind]

Draft 5 starters this year or 4 and a project QB they are comfortable with. I hope they don’t trade away picks. 

[Green Lightning]

16 minutes ago, swnybillsfan said:

i don't really know anything about these guys other than what i hear on the radio and read in these posts. but i do like what i have heard about rudolph, and i also like that he could be had without trading anything away. he seems to be a very "safe" or "boring" pick, but i don't see anything wrong with that. if he can execute the offense that our coaches want to run, i would sign up for that. a lot of people have opined that he is a rich man's peterman. i think that could be ok. 

Particularly if they could bring him along slowly and not throw him into The fray. Let him sit a few years behind Smith or Bridgewater or AJ McCarron.

[OldTimer1960]

On January 18, 2018 at 11:23 AM, Bray Wyatt said:

if one of the guys we likes starts to get towards #10, i dont see any reason why we wouldnt trade one of the 1st and one of the 2nds to go up and get him

 

it would still leave us with another first round and second round pick

I don't think that would be enough to get to 10.

[swnybillsfan]

57 minutes ago, Green Lightning said:

Particularly if they could bring him along slowly and not throw him into The fray. Let him sit a few years behind Smith or Bridgewater or AJ McCarron.

i would be pretty weary of drafting someone that high only to sit him for multiple years, but if he sat for a year, year and a half...that could be fine. i would just be worried that if he is not going to be better than a journeyman, stop gap qb, within the first two years, then this is definitely not the guy we need. but..sitting until the guy is 100% ready to go would be nice. (even though we ridiculously overreactive fans will be screaming for him long, long before he is ready)

[Green Lightning]

1 hour ago, swnybillsfan said:

i would be pretty weary of drafting someone that high only to sit him for multiple years, but if he sat for a year, year and a half...that could be fine. i would just be worried that if he is not going to be better than a journeyman, stop gap qb, within the first two years, then this is definitely not the guy we need. but..sitting until the guy is 100% ready to go would be nice. (even though we ridiculously overreactive fans will be screaming for him long, long before he is ready)

 

Aaron Rodgers did okay by it as have others. I hear you though. It will be interesting to watch Mahomes next season.

Edited January 20, 2018 by Green Lightning

[swnybillsfan]

15 minutes ago, Green Lightning said:

 

Aaron Rodgers did okay by it as have others. I hear you though. It will be interesting to watch Mahomes next season.

i was thinking about rodgers, but he was sitting behind favre. if we go with a journeyman veteran, i don't think he will be quite that caliber. but i am really hoping that this staff identifies their guy and goes for it. but i can also appreciate that each qb has his own price. i am sure they would give up much more to grab darnold than they would for rudolph, and i am trusting the process that they will make the right move for this team. 

[Green Lightning]

29 minutes ago, swnybillsfan said:

i was thinking about rodgers, but he was sitting behind favre. if we go with a journeyman veteran, i don't think he will be quite that caliber. but i am really hoping that this staff identifies their guy and goes for it. but i can also appreciate that each qb has his own price. i am sure they would give up much more to grab darnold than they would for rudolph, and i am trusting the process that they will make the right move for this team. 

It's all we can do. So far, so good. I just hope beyond all hope we finally draft a real QB.  I think these guys are the guys to do it.

 

[swnybillsfan]

47 minutes ago, Green Lightning said:

It's all we can do. So far, so good. I just hope beyond all hope we finally draft a real QB.  I think these guys are the guys to do it.

 

that's kinda where i am. i feel really good about the kind of men that mcdermott wants on his team. and i also feel like beane has the right approach when it comes to finding value in the talent. hopefully these guys turn out to be as good as we hope they are. 

[MrEpsYtown]

5 hours ago, DCOrange said:

I think Lock will be a first rounder next year. Wish he had stayed in this year’s draft to give Buffalo another option. 

 

Thanks I didn't realize he went back. I like him a lot. 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

To me, accuracy is the most critical part of a QB. And it seems like both of these guys could have accuracy issues.

 

But how do you measure accuracy?! Completion percentage doesn’t seem to be a good indicator. 

[swnybillsfan]

6 minutes ago, JR in Pittsburgh said:

To me, accuracy is the most critical part of a QB. And it seems like both of these guys could have accuracy issues.

 

But how do you measure accuracy?! Completion percentage doesn’t seem to be a good indicator. 

hopefully the people making these decisions are good at differentiating between the two. i really want a qb that can hit someone on the run. i have seen other teams do it, so i know it is within the rules. 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

....now that Beane/McD may have the broad/general parameters in their minds as far as offensive philosophy with Daboll hiring, which one is the better fit?.................

[Alphadawg7]

On 1/18/2018 at 5:49 AM, ProcessTheTrust said:

I'm just curious, does everyone who knows for sure that Jackson won't be good  - were you the same people who knew Watson wouldn't be good - or better yet, STILL think he's not that good? I get that the mechanics of a protypical QB are important, but sometimes, when an athlete is a freak and has "IT", the seemingly big issues aren't as big. Us reaching for EJ has scarred us for life because our GM/scouts didn't recognize he didn't have the "IT" factor to cover his flaws. I'm not saying Jackson will be good for sure. I'm just not convinced the reasons he will suck are going to hold up. It's not that simple.

 

I was skeptical of Watson last year because I had concerns about his turnover issues and downfield accuracy.  The sample size is small, but he certainly came into the NFL and caught fire pretty quick.  Is it his WR's...is it the lack of tape on him...or is it that he is going to be pretty good or better?  Either way, it was a great start for the kid.

 

So, I have been watching a lot of Falk, Mason, and Jackson as there are three I am starting to think are the most likely candidates for the Bills (assuming we dont surprise and land Cousins) as I dont think Beane will pay the price needed to get one of the top 4.  

 

And after doing so, I came away thinking Jackson is the guy and just might have the highest ceiling of all the QBs in the draft.  He has a lower floor than some of the top guys, but I was really impressed and surprised to see so many legit NFL throws in and out of the pocket, tight windows, leading his guys, etc.  Used the whole field on top of that.  

 

So mark me down as a guy who wants to sign Teddy (or keep TT) and draft Lamar.  I won't hate Mason or anything, but this is just the way I am leaning right now and I reserve the right to change my mind as we go through senior bowl, combine, workouts etc lol.

[NastyNateSoldiers]

5 hours ago, swnybillsfan said:

i don't really know anything about these guys other than what i hear on the radio and read in these posts. but i do like what i have heard about rudolph, and i also like that he could be had without trading anything away. he seems to be a very "safe" or "boring" pick, but i don't see anything wrong with that. if he can execute the offense that our coaches want to run, i would sign up for that. a lot of people have opined that he is a rich man's peterman. i think that could be ok. 

Who wants boring for your future franchise QB . I'll pass on that. 

[swnybillsfan]

13 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

Who wants boring for your future franchise QB . I'll pass on that. 

i would settle for a boring guy that is far from flashy but can sit back and hit his receivers on the move. someone who can get the ball into his playmakers' hands and put the ball in a location to let his guys keep on running.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

15 minutes ago, swnybillsfan said:

i would settle for a boring guy that is far from flashy but can sit back and hit his receivers on the move. someone who can get the ball into his playmakers' hands and put the ball in a location to let his guys keep on running.

 

...having a difficult time remembering such a time in Bufalo...damn senior moments...............

[swnybillsfan]

1 hour ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

....now that Beane/McD may have the broad/general parameters in their minds as far as offensive philosophy with Daboll hiring, which one is the better fit?.................

i have been wondering this as well. which qb is the best fit for what they want to do? i know mcd wants a strong character/effort guy. and beane has stated he wants the big guy that can stand tall in the pocket and distribute the ball to his playmakers. the wildcard would be daboll and what his input is here.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

10 minutes ago, swnybillsfan said:

i have been wondering this as well. which qb is the best fit for what they want to do? i know mcd wants a strong character/effort guy. and beane has stated he wants the big guy that can stand tall in the pocket and distribute the ball to his playmakers. the wildcard would be daboll and what his input is here.

 

 

...it will be interesting to say the least....but I think we are on more solid footing than in recent years regarding QB spot.......the Kolb mat attack foiled any vet presence leadership.....EJ tanked woefully when thrust into starting....waiting for Orton until August while he resolved his Jurry fight was no help.......Roman went ballistic internally at OBD with the Cassell trade and I don't think he ever warmed up to working with TT.......Roman was Wreck's scapegoat and Lynn did the best he could thrust into the position.......overall, that OBD "continuity (COUGH)" rivaled Middle East "stability".......but me thinks Beane/McD selected Daboll with their offensive ideas in mind and he's already on board to provide substantial input in the draft process.......

[BigDingus]

If those were my only options, pass.

Not unless I can grab Jackson or Rudolph in the 2nd round. Wouldn't use either of our 1st rounders on them.

[swnybillsfan]

5 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

 

...it will be interesting to say the least....but I think we are on more solid footing than in recent years regarding QB spot.......the Kolb mat attack foiled any vet presence leadership.....EJ tanked woefully when thrust into starting....waiting for Orton until August while he resolved his Jurry fight was no help.......Roman went ballistic internally at OBD with the Cassell trade and I don't think he ever warmed up to working with TT.......Roman was Wreck's scapegoat and Lynn did the best he could thrust into the position.......overall, that OBD "continuity (COUGH)" rivaled Middle East "stability".......but me thinks Beane/McD selected Daboll with their offensive ideas in mind and he's already on board to provide substantial input in the draft process.......

i would have to think that this regime has more stability than any other in the recent past. coach and gm are seemingly on the same page. and this oc was brought in so quickly that i have to believe he was the number one choice. now for the qb. i can't help but think that they are going to, one way or another, get the guy they think fits best philosophically, as well as schematically, within their organization. 

[Franco_92]

Good stuff in this thread, and in all the other QB ones. I love having pages of this stuff to read and learn, especially on such a critical topic

[Turk71]

I don't see a can't miss qb prospect in this draft so I hope the Bills don't give up too much to move higher. I think Rosen Allen and Darnold are overrated at this point and would not be surprised if they all disappoint in the NFL. Mayfield processes the field and makes great decisions with the ball. Jackson has incredible speed and athleticism for a qb. I see them both as boom or bust, risky with a high ceiling. Rudolph is 6'5", had incredible production and has progressed every year. He also is athletic and ran for 10 tds this year. With proper development I think he has as much potential as any of them. Hang onto the draft picks, bring in a good fa like Smith, draft Rudolph, draft for the lines lbs etc., get quality rb and speedy wr. I think getting an established qb and building the overall team while still drafting a good qb prospect is a better plan than going all in on one of the 'top' qbs.

[MrEpsYtown]

4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I was skeptical of Watson last year because I had concerns about his turnover issues and downfield accuracy.  The sample size is small, but he certainly came into the NFL and caught fire pretty quick.  Is it his WR's...is it the lack of tape on him...or is it that he is going to be pretty good or better?  Either way, it was a great start for the kid.

 

So, I have been watching a lot of Falk, Mason, and Jackson as there are three I am starting to think are the most likely candidates for the Bills (assuming we dont surprise and land Cousins) as I dont think Beane will pay the price needed to get one of the top 4.  

 

And after doing so, I came away thinking Jackson is the guy and just might have the highest ceiling of all the QBs in the draft.  He has a lower floor than some of the top guys, but I was really impressed and surprised to see so many legit NFL throws in and out of the pocket, tight windows, leading his guys, etc.  Used the whole field on top of that.  

 

So mark me down as a guy who wants to sign Teddy (or keep TT) and draft Lamar.  I won't hate Mason or anything, but this is just the way I am leaning right now and I reserve the right to change my mind as we go through senior bowl, combine, workouts etc lol.

 

While I do think Beane will find a way to get up to draft Rosen or Darnold, I do agree with you. Aside from probably Rosen, none of these guys should start this year.  No one can really argue that Jackson doesn't have the most upside here. When I'm drafting a young guy to develop, he better be clearly better than Nate Peterman. I don't see that with Rudolph or Falk. Though I do like Falk and I see some Michigan Tom Brady in him. Again, not saying he is going to be Brady, but I like some of his traits. You have to move the needle, and to me, guys like Rudolph, Falk, Ferguson, White just don't move the needle all that much. Are they worth a 4th round Peterman-Cardale Jones flyer? Yes. Does it mean the QB conundrum is solved? No way.   

 

Jackson has a chance to be Michael Vick, or RG3. But he has some unbelievable athletic ability and I think he goes late one, early 2.  

 

I think this regime is only going to draft a Darnold, Rosen, Allen. Otherwise, I think they will pass on the quarterbacks this year. So I kind of feel it is trade up or bust. This franchise has really never drafted a high upside top prospect quarterback since Kelly. With the draft currency we have, the time is now to get that guy. If no trade up is available, you trade down and gather picks to move up next year. You can't force it. 

[Spielman]

On 1/18/2018 at 12:36 PM, buffalobloodfloridahome said:

I don't consider Mayfield a pocket passer either even though he's not in this discussion. We have had a mobile QB with accuracy issues for the past few years and it hit it's ceiling this year even though Tyrod didn't have a great year we made the playoffs in spite because of his lack of turnovers. Lamar has shown that he does take chances and does throw down the field unfortunately without great accuracy he'll probably be a career backup somewhere (Joe Webb). Rudolph is more of the prototypical passer that stands in the pocket and has decent accuracy from what I've watched I like his ability.

Finally, someone who know what he’s talking about.  Mayfield is NOT a pocket passer .  He throws on rollouts more than any of the top 6 QB’s.  

 

Howver, Jackson is terrific from the pocket.  There is a misconception by many that he is a running QB only.  He has a cannon for an arm and is the best running QB I’ve ever seen.  I think we will be a great pro.