The path to the Playoffs

[PrimeTime101]

3 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

The eye test tells me that the Bills lose that game even without the INTs. Taylor was strip sacked for a TD in that game as well. He was a mediocrity today as well, just less mediocre than Smith. Rivers on the other hand is a different story. The Bills were hardly going to be a favorite in that game, nor should they have been. The decision wasn't incompetent as it was desperate. Taylor leftvthem with no option. He stunk in the Jets game as well, though many want to give him a pass there for some reason. He had one on one coverage and saw the same 5 man rush on most plays, yet couldn't and wouldn't beat it. He was BAD. Same in the Saints game . They won today because the defense did a good job albeit vs a struggling KC team that hasn't looked good in a month. Sticking with NP would have been incompetent after that game, but trying it wasn't. What was the alternative really? Lose by less points? What good does that do? You have to try to win each game. 

 

Just now, Peace Frog said:

Completely agree with the above post.  Even if Taylor had started against the Chargers, we still would've lost.

Agreed and Ageed

[Norwood for Wall of Fame]

If you really want to analyze it, go here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html

 

According to that, if the Ravens lose Monday night and we beat Indy and Miami twice, we have a 69% chance of making the playoffs

 

Edited November 27, 2017 by Norwood for Wall of Fame

[Bing Bong]

4 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

The eye test tells me that the Bills lose that game even without the INTs. Taylor was strip sacked for a TD in that game as well. He was a mediocrity today as well, just less mediocre than Smith. Rivers on the other hand is a different story. The Bills were hardly going to be a favorite in that game, nor should they have been. The decision wasn't incompetent as it was desperate. Taylor leftvthem with no option. He stunk in the Jets game as well, though many want to give him a pass there for some reason. He had one on one coverage and saw the same 5 man rush on most plays, yet couldn't and wouldn't beat it. He was BAD. Same in the Saints game . They won today because the defense did a good job albeit vs a struggling KC team that hasn't looked good in a month. Sticking with NP would have been incompetent after that game, but trying it wasn't. What was the alternative really? Lose by less points? What good does that do? You have to try to win each game. 

"losing by less points" means you were closer to winning by more points.. what in the ????

[PrimeTime101]

1 minute ago, Norwood for Wall of Fame said:

If you really want to analyze it, go here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html

Great way to add something supportive to this topic and Thank You!

 

So there you have it. We go 9-7 with beating Miami twice and Indy we have a 50% chance of going to the playoffs.

[BuffaloBillyG]

At worst I see Baltimore finishing 3-3.

 

Wins over: Texans, Colts, Browns

 

Possible losses to Lions, Steelers, Bengals

 

Even if they close like this we would likely be out unless in addition to sweeping Miami and beating the Colts...we would need to steal a win from NE.

[PrimeTime101]

22 minutes ago, PetermanThrew5Picks said:

the national media had a crystal ball too

really? half the national media agreed with the decision when it was made then when it went bad they changed tune.

I am actually surprised with how close this poll is. keep up with the votes guys

 

[Boatdrinks]

53 minutes ago, PetermanThrew5Picks said:

"losing by less points" means you were closer to winning by more points.. what in the ????

Sure it does, but close doesn't matter. The risk of playing NP was worth it as it might lead to the offense scoring more points . It didn't happen, but playing Tyrod and perhaps losing by a few less points than if NP played poorly was a risk they had to take. They thought he would play well. 

40 minutes ago, KelsaysLunchbox said:

At worst I see Baltimore finishing 3-3.

 

Wins over: Texans, Colts, Browns

 

Possible losses to Lions, Steelers, Bengals

 

Even if they close like this we would likely be out unless in addition to sweeping Miami and beating the Colts...we would need to steal a win from NE.

If Baltimore goes 3-3 they would have 8 wins. If they go 9-7 ( probably the Bills best possible finish) it would come down to some tiebreaker. Why would the Bills likely be out in case of such a tie? Just curious 

Edited November 27, 2017 by Boatdrinks

[Domdab99]

I can'y answer on the grounds that the poll question syntax hurts my head

[Boatdrinks]

36 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

really? half the national media agreed with the decision when it was made then when it went bad they changed tune.

I am actually surprised with how close this poll is. keep up with the votes guys

 

The national media doesn't really pay attention to Tyrod Taylor's play or the Bills except for a few highlights and box scores. 

[PrimeTime101]

12 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

The national media doesn't really pay attention to Tyrod Taylor's play or the Bills except for a few highlights and box scores. 

read up your missing on conversation then you would understand

 

48 votes in and near dead even

[CA OC Bills Fan]

Assuming our main worry is a tie with Baltimore and that our record ends up at 9-7 in a two way tie (for a three way tie there are two many options on who the other team is to figure it out right now):

- They are 5-5 which means they will go 4-2 in their last six games.

- They play Houston (tonight), Pittsburgh, Detroit, Cleveland, Ind, Cin

- Since we don't play them, the next tiebreaker is division record.

- Both of us are currently 4-3 in the AFC. The rest of our games are against AFC teams so our conference record will be 7-5 for us to be at 9-7. Baltimore must lose two games to AFC teams (unless of course they lose three games but that changes all of the above assumptions that we both get to 9-7).

- Likely one of the losses will be to Pittsburgh.

= The next tiebreaker is common opponents.

- We both play Miami (us twice), Cincinnati (them twice), Oakland, Indianapolis. I.e. we have five games against common opponents. 

- If we split with both NE and Miami, that is much worse than the more likely scenario of us beating Miami twice and losing to NE twice. Same thing with losing to Indianapolis but beating NE one time to get to our 9-7 record. Since both Baltimore and the Bills play Miami and Indianapolis, they are critical to our common opponent record.

- If we beat Miami twice and Indianapolis, our common opponent record will be 4-1 (two over Miami, W over Ind and Oakland).

- Currently, Baltimore is 3-0 in common opponents (W over Cin, Oak, Miami). So, their other, non-Pittsburgh loss must be to either Cin or Ind. If so, then we are both tied for common opponents.

- Next tiebreaker after common opponents is strength of victories. As of now, and including our future wins against Miami twice and Ind, our wins are against teams with 40 wins. Baltimore, after adding in wins against Houston, Detroit, Cleveland, and Cincinnati, are against teams with 37 wins (if they lost to Cincinnati and beat Indianapolis instead, their wins would be against teams with 35 wins).

 

Bottom line, we need to win the games we're supposed to win and need Baltimore to lose to either Cincinnati or to Indianapolis. 

 

 

[Big C]

Baltimore has been inconsistent, definitely lousy on offense. We are pretty similar teams right now. We can reasonably expect them to finish 9-7 given their schedule, but 8-8 is equally possible - and the same can be said for us. 

[ganesh]

5 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

The path now is now more possible because of this win.

 

Beat Miami twice and Indy. Puts us at 9-7. Here is the key question. Does 9-7 make it to the playoffs this year? Can this team clean up Miami twice and beat Indy?

As silly as this sounds my thought is yes on both. Its been a long time that we have seen a clear possible path to playoffs.. do we get there? your thoughts

The Pats play the Steelers in a couple of weeks that will decide the AFC #1 seed.  If they knock off the steelers, then the season finale may be up for grabs. If we are 9-6 at that time, then the Bills will be going full blast at the patriots in Week 17

[switz1610]

1 hour ago, ganesh said:

The Pats play the Steelers in a couple of weeks that will decide the AFC #1 seed.  If they knock off the steelers, then the season finale may be up for grabs. If we are 9-6 at that time, then the Bills will be going full blast at the patriots in Week 17

 

We play NE in Week 16.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Ask me again in 15 hours 

[JinxedBill1]

7 hours ago, aceman_16 said:

I will feel a TON better about Buffalo's 9-7 odds if the Ravens go on a losing streak.

This.  The biggest obstacle besides being the Bills, is the Ravens who have a very favorable schedule.  SAN Diego could be a problem if they kee winning and the chiefs win the division as well.  They hold the tie breaker over us as well.

[mannc]

I don’t think the Bills make it unless they figure out a way to win one of the NE games.  

[ALF]

That horrid 3 game losing streak has me worried . Can't predict after seeing that mess.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

6 hours ago, CA OC Bills Fan said:

- Since we don't play them, the next tiebreaker is division record.

- Both of us are currently 4-3 in the AFC. The rest of our games are against AFC teams so our conference record will be 7-5 for us to be at 9-7. Baltimore must lose two games to AFC teams (unless of course they lose three games but that changes all of the above assumptions that we both get to 9-7).

 

 

Great breakdown CA OC, but I think you missed one crucial game that kind of blows all the tiebreaker stuff up. Any tied scenario, such as 9-7 must include a win against Detroit for Baltimore if we are to win a tiebreaker against them. If we both end up 9-7 but they lose to Detroit that would automatically mean they have a better conference record then us and no need to go to common games/SOV tiebreakers.

 

That is not to say we should hope for a Baltimore victory over Detroit. Just the opposite. Hope they lose that game, the Pitt game and any other loss will give us the wild card outright.

[PrimeTime101]

4 hours ago, ALF said:

That horrid 3 game losing streak has me worried . Can't predict after seeing that mess.

yea but we can have fun trying

 

[Royale with Cheese]

Watch out for Miami, they're on a 5 game losing streak but are still a lock for the playoffs.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Watch out for Miami, they're on a 5 game losing streak but are still a lock for the playoffs.

we're on to the NE Cheatriots and the cyborg known as Tom Brady 

[CodeMonkey]

15 hours ago, billsfan11 said:

I see 8 and 8. Lose to the Pats twice, beat Indi and split with Miami

That's where I am as well.  But not inconceivable that the Bills sweep the fish.

[Boatdrinks]

11 hours ago, Big C said:

Baltimore has been inconsistent, definitely lousy on offense. We are pretty similar teams right now. We can reasonably expect them to finish 9-7 given their schedule, but 8-8 is equally possible - and the same can be said for us. 

 

 I think the Ravens defense is far superior to the Bills. The only similarity between the Bills and Ravens is their offensive struggles. The offensive point output is about the same, but the Ravens have surrendered 89 fewer points than the Bills ( they've played one less game) good enough for second in the AFC in scoring defense. 

[billsredneck1]

well my optimistic side says we can still finish 10-6 then the ravens are not a problem. they will drop 2. if they leave yarborough in and come up with an attacking,blitzing scheme, we could pull this game off at home vs. brady. we can play man with poyer and hyde covering the back end....it is doable. we need to get cadet involved more and just keep moving the chains. if these coords. can come up with some twists, we could do it bills24/17......or

 

we stick to our base front four dependency for the rush and get rolled. if we can somehow split with the pats, we can put the hammer down the rest of the way. you never know.

 

[Marty McFly]

Need the Ravens to implode and beat Mia x2 and IND. 

 

Thats it, Jax lost so if they implode too that def helps.

 

Basically. Madddddddd implosions.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

22% change of recapturing the WC per ESPN PFI thingy 

it's better than 12 at this time last season.  

[ndirish1978]

Mark my words, the Ravens will go 8-8 and we will have a shot to the playoffs, which we will blow with a loss to Miami or Indy. 

[Big C]

49 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

 

 I think the Ravens defense is far superior to the Bills. The only similarity between the Bills and Ravens is their offensive struggles. The offensive point output is about the same, but the Ravens have surrendered 89 fewer points than the Bills ( they've played one less game) good enough for second in the AFC in scoring defense. 

 

I think the Ravens D is slightly better, but far superior is an overstatement. The points allowed is definitely in part due to three shutouts. While I know that's impressive, the opponents should be considered: Bengals (week 1 with a lousy offense before the the OC was canned), Dolphins and the Hundley Packers (who until yesterday were rather listless). This same defense allowed 44 points to the Jags.

 

I don't disagree that the Ravens have the inside track to the playoffs. 

[Tuco]

5 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Great breakdown CA OC, but I think you missed one crucial game that kind of blows all the tiebreaker stuff up. Any tied scenario, such as 9-7 must include a win against Detroit for Baltimore if we are to win a tiebreaker against them. If we both end up 9-7 but they lose to Detroit that would automatically mean they have a better conference record then us and no need to go to common games/SOV tiebreakers.

 

That is not to say we should hope for a Baltimore victory over Detroit. Just the opposite. Hope they lose that game, the Pitt game and any other loss will give us the wild card outright.

But that goes without saying. As CA OC said, if we tie at 9-7 Baltimore must lose 2 AFC games. If Baltimore loses 2 AFC games and finishes 9-7, they will have had to beat Detroit. If they lose to Detroit and go 9-7 then they won't have lost 2 AFC games. To go 9-7 they have to lose 2 games. Saying they must lose 2 AFC games or saying one of their wins must be against Detroit is the same thing.

[Boatdrinks]

5 minutes ago, Tuco said:

But that goes without saying. As CA OC said, if we tie at 9-7 Baltimore must lose 2 AFC games. If Baltimore loses 2 AFC games and finishes 9-7, they will have had to beat Detroit. If they lose to Detroit and go 9-7 then they won't have lost 2 AFC games. To go 9-7 they have to lose 2 games. Saying they must lose 2 AFC games or saying one of their wins must be against Detroit is the same thing.

Exactly . Saying they must win vs Detroit to help the Bills is just an inverted and silly way to put it. Never understood that whole backwards logic about winning NFC games hurting the playoff chances lol 

[ctk232]

Shouldn't we be hoping the Chief's slide continues and they drop off the face of the earth and hope LA takes over as the division lead given our tiebreakers? I can't see us holding off the ravens AND chargers for the wild card spot if KC keeps their division spot and OAK doesn't start winning the rest of the way.

 

Probably just stating the obvious here but if the Chief's do collapse and we go 4-1 the rest of the way I think we do it. 3-2 probably doesn't cut it with the Ravens remaining schedule, looming Cincy, and LA's resurgence all combined.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

15 minutes ago, Tuco said:

But that goes without saying. As CA OC said, if we tie at 9-7 Baltimore must lose 2 AFC games. If Baltimore loses 2 AFC games and finishes 9-7, they will have had to beat Detroit. If they lose to Detroit and go 9-7 then they won't have lost 2 AFC games. To go 9-7 they have to lose 2 games. Saying they must lose 2 AFC games or saying one of their wins must be against Detroit is the same thing.

I think I miss read CA OC's post. I thought when he said the rest of our games are against the AFC he was speaking to both the Bills and Ravens.

[Boatdrinks]

5 minutes ago, ctk232 said:

Shouldn't we be hoping the Chief's slide continues and they drop off the face of the earth and hope LA takes over as the division lead given our tiebreakers? I can't see us holding off the ravens AND chargers for the wild card spot if KC keeps their division spot and OAK doesn't start winning the rest of the way.

 

Probably just stating the obvious here but if the Chief's do collapse and we go 4-1 the rest of the way I think we do it. 3-2 probably doesn't cut it with the Ravens remaining schedule, looming Cincy, and LA's resurgence all combined.

Yes, that's assumed to be part of it too and at this point it looks like a good assumption compared to the others. The Chiefs are in a free-fall and appear ripe to be overtaken by a surging Chargers squad for the division lead. The Ravens really appear to be the main threat, IF the Bills are able to win two home games vs IND and MIA, then see where the chips fall with a fairly unduanting road game at MIA to close things out. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Tonight's game is huge. Texans could easily pull out the win. They could easily lose too. 

[BillsfanAZ]

I still think the Bills are not a playoff caliber team. If they beat the Pats then I will be impressed. The Bills dont have the offense to compete with good teams. The Bills defense basically takes teams into deep water to drown them, the Bills offense does just enough to keep their nose above the waterline. 

[Boatdrinks]

1 hour ago, BillsfanAZ said:

I still think the Bills are not a playoff caliber team. If they beat the Pats then I will be impressed. The Bills dont have the offense to compete with good teams. The Bills defense basically takes teams into deep water to drown them, the Bills offense does just enough to keep their nose above the waterline. 

That the Bills don't have the offense to compete with the better teams in the league is probably true. They aren't likely to beat the Pats either, though everyone would be impressed if they did. However, if they win 9 games, and qualify for the playoffs the they are a " playoff caliber team" in 2017. 

[Fadingpain]

It is entirely possible that things fall our way and it all comes down to the final game of the season in Miami.

 

Let's say a win there takes us to 9-7 and that is enough for a playoff berth.

 

That would be the next game we are expected to win, but will probably lose.

 

I will give this team the benefit of the doubt when they earn it, and not before.

 

I think we lose to NE at home this week, beat Indy at home, beat Dolphins at home, lose to Patriots in NE and then it all comes down to final game of season in Miami.

 

You have to assume we lose that game because...Bills.

 

 

 

1 hour ago, BillsfanAZ said:

I still think the Bills are not a playoff caliber team. If they beat the Pats then I will be impressed. The Bills dont have the offense to compete with good teams. The Bills defense basically takes teams into deep water to drown them, the Bills offense does just enough to keep their nose above the waterline. 

We don't have the offense and we don't have the defense either, apparently, when we are playing a team with a strong QB.

 

It is almost impossible to believe we could actually win a playoff game, even if we qualify for one, though that would largely depend on the breaks of who we end up playing and who that team's QB is.

 

If it's a good team with a good QB, no way we win.  If we get lucky with a suspect QB, possible we could win, though Tyrod will need to still put up points, and we struggle with that.

 

 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

18 hours ago, Woodman19 said:

Im not going to be optimistic unless we can steal a game from the Patriots to make up for lost opportunities earlier in the season and build in some buffer for a future let down.

 

...hell at this juncture, I'd take the deja vu 2003 series split, 31-0 at The Ralph and 0-31 in Foxboro............

[PrimeTime101]

4 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...hell at this juncture, I'd take the deja vu 2003 series split, 31-0 at The Ralph and 0-31 in Foxboro............

and we can always keep dreaming lol