How did some big name NFL quarterbacks perform in their first NFL start?

[grb]

2 hours ago, BobChalmers said:

I think it's pretty likely Peterman will get a few (1-3) more starts this year.  Tyrod and the Bills need at least a win against KC or NE to remain at all in the playoff conversation.

 

AND highly probable he will start the 2018 season for the Bills.

 

How he does in his other chances this season and how the draft falls next year will determine whether he's starting long-term or just as a placeholder for the rookie they get.

 

Three points about this :

• I still don't get why everyone assumes or wants Taylor to be benched the second the Bills are out of the playoffs. He still will be the best quarterback on the team. He still will give them the best option to win. He still will have earned the starters slot. The old reasoning - to see whether Peterman could preclude the need to draft a quarterback high - is no longer operative. So why bench Taylor with a handful of games left? Isn't that rather petty? What does it tell the locker room, the rest of the league, and the majority of fans? Of course, with some fans the answer is obvious. They'd bench Taylor out of gleeful spite.
• Highly probable Peterman starts in 2018? Wow. Look, the average lifespan for a Bills' coach and Gm in this millennium is about 2.75 years, and we've already burned through year-one. Discounting the chance it was ownership's call, some combination of coach-coordinator-gm just made the team a nationwide laughing stock - and McDermott looked confused / weaselly / childishly-stubborn in the process. There is NO chance Peterman starts in 2018 unless everyone is certain that decision won't blow-up in their face. And give the ease which Peterman panicked & got flustered, how certain can you ever be on that point? Way back in mid-October, my take on NP was this : Yes, he has a chance to become a starter. But - like Taylor - he fell in the draft for a reason. Like Taylor, he has flaws in his game. Like Taylor, he can overcome those flaws with a great deal of work on his strengths and weakness. But if Taylor had gone in for Flacco his first year, he would have probably flamed-out ages ago. Start Peterman too soon and that's probably the end result. I still think that take is right.
• Taylor is gone. Of course it makes sense to keep him around in '18 as insurance while the golden boy draftee matures, but that's now unlikely. McBeane will cut him purely to save face. So this will be the result : (1) Rookie, (2) Cheap veteran burnout, (3) Peterman. That could have a Hollywood ending, but given the number of holes to fill on this team, I'd lay odds not. I just was looking at a 4-round mock draft and there wasn't a o-lineman in sight. That alone is a sign of the problems this team faces......

Edited November 24, 2017 by grb

[BadLandsMeanie]

7 minutes ago, billsfan11 said:

Those guys you listed were all 1st picks off the board or first round picks though.

 

Peterman is a 5th round pick with minimal talent. 

 

I don't follow the reasoning. Unless you mean a bad first game means nothing for a first round pick, but it means a 5th round pick is no good? Why would that be? I don't see the sense in it.

 

I have seen plenty of similar thinking though on the Bills alone and I never have liked it.

EJ is good because we drafted him in the first. So we have to watch many bad games because the games are wrong, EJ is actually quite good. Because we drafted him in the first.

 

JP is good because we drafted him in the first. Same thing then.

 

I think once the draft is over, it is over.  And if a team doesn't think anyone drafted after round 3 will ever amount to anything, why draft them? Why not just trade away every pick after round 3 every year?

 

I'm sorry I do see your initial idea but when I think it through it doesn't add up to sound reasoning to me.

 

 

[RoyBatty is alive]

2 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Anything could happen with regard to those possibilities with so much to be determined.  Peterman could start, but posting that it's extremely probable is far too premature. 

I agree, it is proabaly 50/50 at nest.

 

25% chance TT starts ( he leads us to the playoffs)

25% pick up a vet

25% we draft high and he starts

25% Peterman

 

I am all in favor of letting patience and letting Peter man develop but there is a good **** he is not ready next year.

[Chadwick Bay Chad]

Peterman will start again this year and he will be much better.  Will he be a superstar? No but I see him like a FrankReich.  Can come off the bench for a few games and win.  In the off season, we will pick up one of the Vikings gbs to compete for the starting job.  We will trade both Glenn and Shady.  Don’t expect a big return for Glenn, he is damaged goods. Look for t5th or lower and a second or third for McCoy 

[BadLandsMeanie]

15 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

18 for 27, 150 yards, 2 tds, 0 turnovers, 23 yards rushing, left the field with the lead against the Patriots - EJ Manuel!!!

 

this comparison is completely invalid.  As others have pointed out, they were all basically 1 overall picks. Thus, they went to rock bottom teams.  

 

Also, as number 1 picks, they were elite prospects and not 5th round picks despite being the "most pro ready prospect."

 

And it's not Peterman's fault at all.  It's irrational fans and a coach who seems over his head's fault.  Most smart people thought it was a terrible idea to put a 5th round rookie who was ok at best against fringe NFL players in preseason in a game with playoff implications.  Stupid, stupid move and most likely, NP is a backup at best.  Completely irrational.

 

See above.

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

See above.

There I should no guarantee what NP will become but the overwhelming data suggests he will be a backup/ fringe NFL qb.  It's not like he was se hidden gem in college without elite physical skills.  He is pretty much maxed out and NFL teams thought he was a 5th round talent.

 

and that's pretty fine.  I think fans just want to believe in a qb so bad that they will fall in love quickly.  I just hope we spend a high pick to get a guy who has a more realistic shot to be a franchise qb.

[BadLandsMeanie]

10 minutes ago, grb said:

 

 (1) Rookie, (2) Cheap veteran burnout, (3) Peterman. That could have a Hollywood ending, but given the number of holes to fill on this team, I'd lay odds not.

You make some good points in your post but I want to  just address this one part.

 

What you describe there is exactly what I would like to see. We would have our rookie hotshot high pick who has time to learn on the bench if needed. The burnout to hold the fort if needed. And Peterman as longer term backup who might possible get better to be a starter. That gives us two chances at a long term starter as I see it.

 

Also you leave out one thing. I didn't do research but Tyrod will get something like 16 million dollars next year.

 

So that could instead be three 5 million per year free agents.

 

Poyer for example is getting 3.25 millon per year.

 

So it isn't just that Tyrod is gone. It can be 1)Tyrod Taylor 2)Rookie 3)Peterman

 

or it can be (1) Rookie, (2) Cheap veteran burnout, (3) Peterman AND 3 pretty good quality free agents.

 

I don't think it is as clear cut when you look at it that way.

[Theshallowcross]

2 hours ago, klos63 said:

Keep in mind, except for Tarkenton, you are looking at #1 overall picks, there was a likely expectation of great success for them, not the same case for a 5th round pick. Doesn't mean Peterman can't recover, but it's apples and oranges.

 

Exactly. There are seven 1st rounders on that list and 6/7 were the #1 overall pick. Massive difference. 

 

He also threw more interceptions then any of those guys did and he managed to do it in the 1st HALF. 

Edited November 24, 2017 by Theshallowcross

[Jerome007]

51 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

 

Why even bother drafting quarterbacks? One game and they are through. Lets trade the picks away...

Terry Bradshaw said "I had worse games, hang in there kid"

I listened to "draft a QB"..... draft a QB" for 15 years now....then they get a crummy half game???

Not listening anymore

 

 

Nicely put.  It was an historically bad game, and he is a 5th round pick. So I'm far from convinced on anything. But yeah, people complain about not drafting QBs and after a half game want him gone WTH

 

And to the "anti-Tyrod" crowd. Again all of us would want a better QB. But letting him go doesn't make the "franchise one" appear!!! I'm sure we all also hope for a better LB, a superb pass rusher, a dominant LT and on and on. Just sending someone packing doesn't cure it all!  

[Lfod]

I was hoping that Nate Peterman was a very cerebral Quarterback. That being very intelligent would be his strength instead of being an athletic wonder. It may of been a long shot but if there was a potential then it was worth a shot. 

 

I wouldn't bury him over the very poor first showing but I do think you take it into consideration moving forward. What I saw was a player being overly aggressive with the football not making intelligent moves. 

 

I was in the mindset that you have to be understanding that a rookie in his first start might struggle but you have to admit it got as ugly as it possibly could.

[SoTier]

5 minutes ago, Jerome007 said:

Nicely put.  It was an historically bad game, and he is a 5th round pick. So I'm far from convinced on anything. But yeah, people complain about not drafting QBs and after a half game want him gone WTH

 

And to the "anti-Tyrod" crowd. Again all of us would want a better QB. But letting him go doesn't make the "franchise one" appear!!! I'm sure we all also hope for a better LB, a superb pass rusher, a dominant LT and on and on. Just sending someone packing doesn't cure it all!  

 

Ummm... when fans say "draft a QB", they've mean in the first round not in the fifth.  In this day and age, QBs who fall below the second round generally lack significant physical attributes to be NFL QBs, primarily NFL arm and/or height.  Both Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins have NFL arms, but Wilson is short and Cousins is slight (small framed) so they were both considered risks.  If they had been more prototypical size, they'd have both gone in the first.  Even going to unimportant football schools doesn't necessarily mean real prospects can hide from the scouts: Joe Flacco is from Delaware and Carson Wentz from North Dakota State.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

All those QBs with the exception of Luck played their first game in a much less pass friendly league then what we have seen since 2010 or so. It's not uncommon at all in today's NFL to see rookie QBs have immediate success. 

[grb]

There's an ESPN article today on the latest feel-good story, Case Keenum, and what it means about choosing qbs. It's points are :

1. Coaching matters : Comparing the fortunes of Keenum & Golf with old and new coaching
2. Investing money in infrastructure is probably better than throwing money at a prayer of a passer : This is aimed primarily at picking up a qb on the open market, but emphasizes Keenum is succeeding because he's in a situation to succeed.
3. If you're going to take a flier on a quarterback, don't look for the same sort of prototype you're chasing with the first overall pick : Once you're out of the First Round, you need to look beyond your checklist of stud quarterback requirements and consider more intangibles.
4. The idea there aren't 32 good NFL quarterbacks is overstated : Money quote :  "Instead of saying that there aren't 32 good quarterbacks to go around, we should be saying that there aren't 32 good situations for quarterbacks at any given time in the NFL"

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/21533844/what-learn-star-turn-case-keenum-minnesota-vikings-whether-re-signed-2017-nfl

 

[Jerome007]

9 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

Ummm... when fans say "draft a QB", they've mean in the first round not in the fifth.  In this day and age, QBs who fall below the second round generally lack significant physical attributes to be NFL QBs, primarily NFL arm and/or height.  Both Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins have NFL arms, but Wilson is short and Cousins is slight (small framed) so they were both considered risks.  If they had been more prototypical size, they'd have both gone in the first.  Even going to unimportant football schools doesn't necessarily mean real prospects can hide from the scouts: Joe Flacco is from Delaware and Carson Wentz from North Dakota State.

Of course drafting in the 1st round improves your chances, and the sooner you pick the better. But there has been many 1st round QB busts, and there are exceptions like Brady, etc.

 

My point remains the same: you don't let go of the best QB on your roster unless someone beats him to get the spot. Not BEFORE someone beats him to get the spot, as that may not happen for years! If dratfting franchise QB was easy, 25+ teams would have one. 

 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, HOUSE said:

I listened to "draft a QB"..... draft a QB" for 15 years now....then they get a crummy half game???

Not listening anymore

 

But how many of us have been saying draft a QB in the 5th round? We passed on Mahomes and Watson. Watson looks special. Mahomes looked pretty darn good in pre-season. I think those are the kind of QBs we are craving to draft. First round talented QBs. But I guess since Losman and Manuel were flops we should just never draft QBs early anymore.

[klos63]

44 minutes ago, Lfod said:

I was hoping that Nate Peterman was a very cerebral Quarterback. That being very intelligent would be his strength instead of being an athletic wonder. It may of been a long shot but if there was a potential then it was worth a shot. 

 

I wouldn't bury him over the very poor first showing but I do think you take it into consideration moving forward. What I saw was a player being overly aggressive with the football not making intelligent moves. 

 

I was in the mindset that you have to be understanding that a rookie in his first start might struggle but you have to admit it got as ugly as it possibly could.

White QB vs Black QB?

Edited November 24, 2017 by klos63

[grb]

41 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

You make some good points in your post but I want to  just address this one part.

 

What you describe there is exactly what I would like to see. We would have our rookie hotshot high pick who has time to learn on the bench if needed. The burnout to hold the fort if needed. And Peterman as longer term backup who might possible get better to be a starter. That gives us two chances at a long term starter as I see it.

 

Also you leave out one thing. I didn't do research but Tyrod will get something like 16 million dollars next year.

 

So that could instead be three 5 million per year free agents.

 

Poyer for example is getting 3.25 millon per year.

 

So it isn't just that Tyrod is gone. It can be 1)Tyrod Taylor 2)Rookie 3)Peterman

 

or it can be (1) Rookie, (2) Cheap veteran burnout, (3) Peterman AND 3 pretty good quality free agents.

 

I don't think it is as clear cut when you look at it that way.

 

First, a confession : I have no head whatsoever for NFL contract talk. When people start talking "dead money" and "cap space", I get light headed and have to sit down with my head bowed until the room stops spinning. But this seems to be the clearest formulation : Bills could cut Taylor in 2018–they’d incur over $8 million in dead money, but they would also save $9.4 million in cap space, as well as $16 million in 2018 cash commitments. If I read this right, cutting Taylor gains 9.4 million in cap, from which you sign your Poyer for 3 million. Savings, yes, but I don't think it's as clear cut when you look at it that way.

Edited November 24, 2017 by grb

[BillsFan130]

53 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

I don't follow the reasoning. Unless you mean a bad first game means nothing for a first round pick, but it means a 5th round pick is no good? Why would that be? I don't see the sense in it.

 

I have seen plenty of similar thinking though on the Bills alone and I never have liked it.

EJ is good because we drafted him in the first. So we have to watch many bad games because the games are wrong, EJ is actually quite good. Because we drafted him in the first.

 

JP is good because we drafted him in the first. Same thing then.

 

I think once the draft is over, it is over.  And if a team doesn't think anyone drafted after round 3 will ever amount to anything, why draft them? Why not just trade away every pick after round 3 every year?

 

I'm sorry I do see your initial idea but when I think it through it doesn't add up to sound reasoning to me.

 

 

Not all first round picks pan out of course to your point, but obviously if a guy is drafted in the first round especially first overall, they have a much higher skill set.

 

Think about it this way. Was anyone doubting Andrew Luck after his first game? Hmmm probably not. Nate Peterman on the other hand? Of course because he is a 5th rounder and has a very limited skill set.

 

This is not to say he can't be successful, but the odds are heavily stacked against him compared to a QB who is drafted first off the board

44 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

There I should no guarantee what NP will become but the overwhelming data suggests he will be a backup/ fringe NFL qb.  It's not like he was se hidden gem in college without elite physical skills.  He is pretty much maxed out and NFL teams thought he was a 5th round talent.

 

and that's pretty fine.  I think fans just want to believe in a qb so bad that they will fall in love quickly.  I just hope we spend a high pick to get a guy who has a more realistic shot to be a franchise qb.

Exactly this^

[Billsfan1972]

4 hours ago, xRUSHx said:

Right on with your post man. But I can see where the OP was going with the thread. I'd rather see this team give Peterman experence for next season over watching Tyrod a QB that hopefully will gone. Peterman playing this season gives him experence to sit on next season as the backup as our #1 pick starts day 1.

Actually this thread more then proves that McDermott lied to all you Petermaniacs. 

 

If some of the greatest hof qbs couldn't perform in their first start then with an important game with playoff implications on the line McDermott made you believe Peterman gave the Bills the best chance to win then he either lied or should be fired for incompetence.

Edited November 24, 2017 by Billsfan1972

[Billsfan1972]

3 hours ago, HOUSE said:

I am sending this to my brother in CA . Says Peterman is through in Buffalo

 

LOL, through in one game....embarrassing

No you're emabrrassing in your continual need to denigrate Tyrod and ignore 5 interceptions

[DriveFor1Outta5]

Certainly not as bad as Peterman. He performed at a level equal to a fringe practice squad guy. Staying patient with a young QB is paramount to their success, but there is a line. Guys who have Peterman like debuts don’t stick around long. He looked like he’d be lucky to have a future in the NFL. People keep mentioning Jeff Tuel, he made Tuel look spectacular. 

[fansince88]

Great post.

[xRUSHx]

2 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Actually this thread more then proves that McDermott lied to all you Petermaniacs. 

 

If some of the greatest hof qbs couldn't perform in their first start then with an important game with playoff implications on the line McDermott made you believe Peterman gave the Bills the best chance to win then he either lied or should be fired for incompetence.

No not at all. Fired for trying to get better? Truth is Tyrod is not good enough. Come on man McD showed me he isnt as blind as some when it comes to wanting to get better at QB.

 

The kid got one start on the road against a very good D, I did not lose confidence in his choice to play him at all. All it proved to me was the team did not get behind the kid enough and also showed he needs to learn to tone down the start of a game, can't have all the big plays on the first few drives. McD should have had a softer game plan for him. SMH Petermaniacs? That type of name is sure a COT way of thinking and why they get blasted on so much as such a narrow minded bunch stuck in Baltimore's backup QB jock.

Edited November 24, 2017 by xRUSHx

[vincec]

So Peterman is the answer after all! I thought his poor start was bad news, but it actually it shows that he’s on track to being an all time great.

[SoTier]

2 hours ago, grb said:

There's an ESPN article today on the latest feel-good story, Case Keenum, and what it means about choosing qbs. It's points are :

1. Coaching matters : Comparing the fortunes of Keenum & Golf with old and new coaching
2. Investing money in infrastructure is probably better than throwing money at a prayer of a passer : This is aimed primarily at picking up a qb on the open market, but emphasizes Keenum is succeeding because he's in a situation to succeed.
3. If you're going to take a flier on a quarterback, don't look for the same sort of prototype you're chasing with the first overall pick : Once you're out of the First Round, you need to look beyond your checklist of stud quarterback requirements and consider more intangibles.
4. The idea there aren't 32 good NFL quarterbacks is overstated : Money quote :  "Instead of saying that there aren't 32 good quarterbacks to go around, we should be saying that there aren't 32 good situations for quarterbacks at any given time in the NFL"

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/21533844/what-learn-star-turn-case-keenum-minnesota-vikings-whether-re-signed-2017-nfl

 

 

Thanks for the article. 

 

 

2 hours ago, Jerome007 said:

Of course drafting in the 1st round improves your chances, and the sooner you pick the better. But there has been many 1st round QB busts, and there are exceptions like Brady, etc.

 

My point remains the same: you don't let go of the best QB on your roster unless someone beats him to get the spot. Not BEFORE someone beats him to get the spot, as that may not happen for years! If dratfting franchise QB was easy, 25+ teams would have one. 

 

 

 

Yes, but Peterman isn't a smaller QB like Taylor or a skinny (he might have been called slight) kid like Tom Brady was when he was drafted or a kid that got caught up in some kind of power struggle at his school like Tony Romo who wasn't even drafted.  Being "pro ready"" is not a good reason to gamble on a fifth round QB because a team should be drafting for potential.

 

I totally agree that it would be wisest for the Bills to keep Taylor in 2018, but I just don't see it happening.  Whether they get rid of him to save money or to placate the anti-Taylor contingent of vociferous fans or to pave the way for a yet-to-be-drafted first round QB, he's history just like Fitzpatrick was in 2013.  It will undoubtedly be better for Tyrod.  I doubt it will be better for the Bills or their fans in 2018 but then it's most definitely "the Bills way".

 

[xRUSHx]

1 minute ago, vincec said:

So Peterman is the answer after all! I thought his poor start was bad news, but it actually it shows that he’s on track to being an all time great.

This thread IMO is just showing the kid might not be as bad as the one half he played. SMH.

 

Funny how the COT is out pushing hard on the kid for  bad 2 quarters but forget about Tyrods 4 quarters and only 54 yards in his last start.

 

I can imagine how bad Tyrod would have played if he started a game his first season, it took Tyrod 4 years on the bench to be even be considered a starter and that consideration wasn't even from the team that drafted him it was Rex.

[vincec]

1 minute ago, xRUSHx said:

This thread IMO is just showing the kid might not be as bad as the one half he played. SMH.

 

Funny how the COT is out pushing hard on the kid for  bad 2 quarters but forget about Tyrods 4 quarters and only 54 yards in his last start.

 

I can imagine how bad Tyrod would have played if he started a game his first season, it took Tyrod 4 years on the bench to be even be considered a starter and that consideration wasn't even from the team that drafted him it was Rex.

I didn’t mention Tyrod at all in my post. I think you are the one with Tyrod obsession, not me.

Edited November 24, 2017 by vincec

[xRUSHx]

6 minutes ago, vincec said:

I didn’t mention Tyrod at all in my post. I think you are the one with Tyrod obsession, not me.

I did not say you I said the COT, are you a member?

I addressed your post with the first paragraph, sorry if you felt I pointed it at you.

BTW, this post isnt saying Peterman is all that just saying some people need to chill out a little towards him IMO. Guess your post of saying"Peterman is the answer after all" was a little smug and got me going.

Edited November 24, 2017 by xRUSHx

[xRUSHx]

4 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

There I should no guarantee what NP will become but the overwhelming data suggests he will be a backup/ fringe NFL qb.  It's not like he was se hidden gem in college without elite physical skills.  He is pretty much maxed out and NFL teams thought he was a 5th round talent.

 

and that's pretty fine.  I think fans just want to believe in a qb so bad that they will fall in love quickly.  I just hope we spend a high pick to get a guy who has a more realistic shot to be a franchise qb.

Excellent post 

Edited November 24, 2017 by xRUSHx

[grb]

20 hours ago, xRUSHx said:

Funny how the COT is out pushing hard on the kid for  bad 2 quarters but forget about Tyrods 4 quarters and only 54 yards in his last start.

 

Really? First, NP wasn't bad, but pretty-much the worst in modern history. There's a difference there if you're willing to open your eyes. Second, Taylor was bad vs New Orleans. But he was good against the Jets, Raiders, and Bucs. He was good against the Jets despite facing the same kind of pass rush which had Peterman throwing an interception every other attempt. Funny how you forgot that......

Edited November 25, 2017 by grb

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Winning the superbowl with Peterman!

 

Once we lose the next 2 games pety goes in.

[bobobonators]

Did anyone on that list have 5int? 

[Comebackkid]

12 minutes ago, grb said:

 

Really? First, NP wasn't bad, but pretty-much the worst in modern history. There's a difference there if you're will to open your eyes. Second, Taylor was bad vs New Orleans. But he was good against the Jets, Raiders, and Bucs. He was good against the Jets despite facing the same kind of pass rush which had Peterman throwing an interception every other attempt. Funny how you forgot that......

Definitely unproductive, which is still miles from 5 ints bad. 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

9 hours ago, zow2 said:

Pretty sure Peterman will get another chance. If not this season than beginning in spring 2018. He was so hyper-over aggressive in his play. Just being so careless.  He will learn a lot from it. Just hope he gets one more crack to do something positive.

 

I think he heard all the talk about tt being ultra conservative and not taking chances that he didn't want to be like that.

[timekills17]

10 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Considering this new regimes personnel decisions to date, I would say somebody who's not very good

.

I heard the Dolphins are looking for some new fans.

[reddogblitz]

EJ Manuel 18 for 27 170 2TD 0 Int

JP Losman 18 for 27 150 1 TD 0 Int

 

 

[Sweats]

If Peterman becomes a Hall of Famer, I will gladly admit that I was wrong.

[Passepartout]

These days rookies start and are thrown in the lions den. But now it is or used to be they sat back and watch to learn. Hence Aaron Rodgers.

[reddogblitz]

When I see a QB come in and start chucking and ducking, I know he's a NFL (Not For Long) QB.

[vincec]

15 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

EJ Manuel 18 for 27 170 2TD 0 Int

JP Losman 18 for 27 150 1 TD 0 Int

 

 

This shows that they were destined to fail. If they bombed epically then that would indicate a clear path to greatness.