What if we still had Hogan & Gillislee?

[Kirby Jackson]

 

Tolbert is on-pace for 8 TD's, which is what MG got last year.

He always steals TDs. That's how he earned the nickname the touchdown vulture. Edited September 24, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[NoSaint]

 

Tolbert is on-pace for 8 TD's, which is what MG got last year.

Do you believe he's as impactful a player?

[Billsmovinup]

Hogan would be on the bench. I mean in the world of what if...we would still have Watkins, Woods and Goodwin who each clinched the HoF Thursday night...or so I've basically read here.

You need to learn to read.

[ganesh]

Matthews isn't a 1 but Hogan is? Alrighty.

+1. This team needs Mathews to be part of the game plan in a big way. He can be a game changer. His injury during TC was unfortunate. Tyrod needs to look for Clay and Mathews more often. Then he will get Jones on a 1-on-1 matchup.

[Doc]

Do you believe he's as impactful a player?

Backup RBs rarely are.

[bigduke6]

what if we still had 2 marginal skill players who became overpayed while still having a mediocre QB distributing the ball to them?

 

probably win the superbowl!!!

[Fadingpain]

If we still had Hogan and Gillislee, we would be unstoppable.

[Webster Guy]

TD Mike got let go over $1M. Dareus gets $16M.

 

Nice job Doug.

[GG]

TD Mike got let go over $1M. Dareus gets $16M.

 

Nice job Doug.

 

Do you pay $4 million to a RB with a sub 3.5 ypc average?

[NoSaint]

 

Do you pay $4 million to a RB with a sub 3.5 ypc average?

Perhaps. Really not a great framing of the discussion. I am a fan of not overthinking situations but that's an incredible lack of thought put into it.

[GG]

Perhaps. Really not a great framing of the discussion. I am a fan of not overthinking situations but that's an incredible lack of thought put into it.

 

That's exactly the thought. MG was a three time cast off with a 3.5 ypc until he got to Buffalo. He's right back to his natural average, which is probably what he'd produce in Buffalo this year with defenses keying in on the run so far. So from a team's perspective, do you allocate $4 million to a guy whose replacement value is vet minimum?

[CommonCents]

 

That's exactly the thought. MG was a three time cast off with a 3.5 ypc until he got to Buffalo. He's right back to his natural average, which is probably what he'd produce in Buffalo this year with defenses keying in on the run so far. So from a team's perspective, do you allocate $4 million to a guy whose replacement value is vet minimum?

Ask me when Shady inevitably goes down and Tolbert is carrying the load.

[Paul Costa]

We'd have a lot less cap space 💰💰💰

[NoSaint]

 

That's exactly the thought. MG was a three time cast off with a 3.5 ypc until he got to Buffalo. He's right back to his natural average, which is probably what he'd produce in Buffalo this year with defenses keying in on the run so far. So from a team's perspective, do you allocate $4 million to a guy whose replacement value is vet minimum?

I believe he's the second best back on our roster. I'd venture JWill would be 3rd.

 

If his replacement cost is vet minimum, where do we find a couple of those guys that are better than our current depth?

 

I don't think he's some great back but I think we created a hole and didn't actually fill it back in.

[GG]

Ask me when Shady inevitably goes down and Tolbert is carrying the load.

 

Highly unlikely that Tolbert is the primary back if Shady goes down.

I believe he's the second best back on our roster. I'd venture JWill would be 3rd.

 

If his replacement cost is vet minimum, where do we find a couple of those guys that are better than our current depth?

 

I don't think he's some great back but I think we created a hole and didn't actually fill it back in.

 

For all the tooth gnashing, Tolbert's stats are nearly identical to MG's after three games. MG is supposed to be Pats* feature back, but his alleged strength was picking up the tough yards. So far, on his 4 carries on 3rd & 4th downs, he's gained a total of 2 yards.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Ask me when Shady inevitably goes down and Tolbert is carrying the load.

 

Commonsense says that Tolbert would still be the #2 back with Banyard likely being the featured back.

[NoSaint]

 

Highly unlikely that Tolbert is the primary back if Shady goes down.

 

 

For all the tooth gnashing, Tolbert's stats are nearly identical to MG's after three games. MG is supposed to be Pats* feature back, but his alleged strength was picking up the tough yards. So far, on his 4 carries on 3rd & 4th downs, he's gained a total of 2 yards.

Purely on rushing ability (ignore cost) how do you rank MG, JWill, tolbert, banyard, jones.

 

mccoy tweaks a hammy- what's your depth chart look like from there looking just at skill

 

Commonsense says that Tolbert would still be the #2 back with Banyard likely being the featured back.

I think it might be hazier than we all assume. I like to think the same thing but there have been a few spots where we assumed the plan and were surprised when it unfolded

 

Tolbert and shady had equal carries at the half and only finished with McCoy up 3 carries yesterday. I think in case of injury we may see a by committee approach where tolbert remains up around 50% of the workload

[GG]

Purely on rushing ability (ignore cost) how do you rank MG, JWill, tolbert, banyard, jones.

 

mccoy tweaks a hammy- what's your depth chart look like from there looking just at skill

I think it might be hazier than we all assume. I like to think the same thing but there have been a few spots where we assumed the plan and were surprised when it unfolded

 

Tolbert and shady had equal carries at the half and only finished with McCoy up 3 carries yesterday. I think in case of injury we may see a by committee approach where tolbert remains up around 50% of the workload

 

I think it will depend on the injury. If it's short term, then committee of Tolbert, Jones & Banyard. Longer term will be a FA pick up

[BADOLBILZ]

 

Do you pay $4 million to a RB with a sub 3.5 ypc average?

 

 

You complain because my takes are open ended but the takes in this thread are some of the more eggregious examples of trying to have it both ways I've ever seen.

 

For apologists.......Tolbert is on pace for 8 TD's just like MG did last year.........and has a low ypc like MG has this year.

 

But this year MG is on pace for 20-22 TD's............and last year MG had 5.7 ypc..........while Tolbert still sucked in both categories.

 

It's pretty simple that MG is the better player and #2 option by a considerable margin and cherry picking just isn't helping the argument of you and Doc(it should concern you that you are arguing on Doc's side, btw ).

 

I've pointed this out before..........numerous times..........but neither McCoy or MG is a 5.5 ypc running back.........the Roman offense alone added a half yard to their totals(see Frank Gore post Roman)...........and Tyrod Taylor added another half yard to their totals as long as he had SOME KIND of legitimate deep threat to throw to and keep the safeties from jumping up into the box.

 

Tolbert in last years offense probably averages just a little over league average......about 4.3-4.5 ypc..........which wouldn't have sufficed under the circumstances and certainly does not now.

 

Longtime admirer of his play but he's whipped as a regular RB....... and we will see more of the plays like him dropping the ball while losing his balance going into the end zone and fair catching a kickoff at the 10 yard line if he is continually asked to carry a significant load.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

 

You complain because my takes are open ended but the takes in this thread are some of the more eggregious examples of trying to have it both ways I've ever seen.

 

For apologists.......Tolbert is on pace for 8 TD's just like MG did last year.........and has a low ypc like MG has this year.

 

But this year MG is on pace for 20-22 TD's............and last year MG had 5.7 ypc..........while Tolbert still sucked in both categories.

 

It's pretty simple that MG is the better player and #2 option by a considerable margin and cherry picking just isn't helping the argument of you and Doc(it should concern you that you are arguing on Doc's side, btw ).

 

I've pointed this out before..........numerous times..........but neither McCoy or MG is a 5.5 ypc running back.........the Roman offense alone added a half yard to their totals(see Frank Gore post Roman)...........and Tyrod Taylor added another half yard to their totals as long as he had SOME KIND of legitimate deep threat to throw to and keep the safeties from jumping up into the box.

 

Tolbert in last years offense probably averages just a little over league average......about 4.3-4.5 ypc..........which wouldn't have sufficed under the circumstances and certainly does not now.

 

Longtime admirer of his play but he's whipped as a regular RB....... and we will see more of the plays like him dropping the ball while losing his balance going into the end zone and fair catching a kickoff at the 10 yard line if he is continually asked to carry a significant load.

Someone here suggested a middle round pick on a RB from Toledo named Kareem Hunt. (Pats self on back)

[GG]

 

 

You complain because my takes are open ended but the takes in this thread are some of the more eggregious examples of trying to have it both ways I've ever seen.

 

For apologists.......Tolbert is on pace for 8 TD's just like MG did last year.........and has a low ypc like MG has this year.

 

But this year MG is on pace for 20-22 TD's............and last year MG had 5.7 ypc..........while Tolbert still sucked in both categories.

 

It's pretty simple that MG is the better player and #2 option by a considerable margin and cherry picking just isn't helping the argument of you and Doc(it should concern you that you are arguing on Doc's side, btw ).

 

I've pointed this out before..........numerous times..........but neither McCoy or MG is a 5.5 ypc running back.........the Roman offense alone added a half yard to their totals(see Frank Gore post Roman)...........and Tyrod Taylor added another half yard to their totals as long as he had SOME KIND of legitimate deep threat to throw to and keep the safeties from jumping up into the box.

 

Tolbert in last years offense probably averages just a little over league average......about 4.3-4.5 ypc..........which wouldn't have sufficed under the circumstances and certainly does not now.

 

Longtime admirer of his play but he's whipped as a regular RB....... and we will see more of the plays like him dropping the ball while losing his balance going into the end zone and fair catching a kickoff at the 10 yard line if he is continually asked to carry a significant load.

You cannot ignore the contract that Pats* gave MG in this discussion. Bills tendered him at the exact replacement value, and so far they've been proven right.

 

Do you think NE is wise to allocate $4 million to what appears to be a one trick pony? He has 0 yards on 2 4th down carries, which was supposed to be his calling card. Pats* would have had better production for less $$ out of Blount. Do you find it odd that in an offense as varied as NE's, MG has not caught a single pass in 3 games?

 

You understate the Bills offensive additions to MG's career average. He's averaged +2 yds more per carry here. You'd figure that playing with Brady, he'd be well over 4.0. But just the fact that his numbers aren't that distinguishable from Tolbert's says a lot.

[Doc]

Ask me when Shady inevitably goes down and Tolbert is carrying the load.

 

MG isn't a starting RB. He's a backup RB. So they'd be in the same boat.

 

 

Highly unlikely that Tolbert is the primary back if Shady goes down.

 

For all the tooth gnashing, Tolbert's stats are nearly identical to MG's after three games. MG is supposed to be Pats* feature back, but his alleged strength was picking up the tough yards. So far, on his 4 carries on 3rd & 4th downs, he's gained a total of 2 yards.

 

Yup.

[BADOLBILZ]

Someone here suggested a middle round pick on a RB from Toledo named Kareem Hunt. (Pats self on back)

 

 

Yep and how soon people forget that the ORIGINAL solution to the problem by those poo-pooing the loss of Gillislee was that they would OBVIOUSLY use one of their picks on a RB in what was considered a pretty solid draft class.

 

I've never put a big value on running backs but if someone would have told me in December that Mike Tolbert would end up being this team's #2 RB........BY CHOICE.......in 2017 I simply would not have believed that possible. I'd be less surprised to be told now that Kamar Aiken would be their #1 WR option next year.

[Doc]

Someone here suggested a middle round pick on a RB from Toledo named Kareem Hunt. (Pats self on back)

 

Except the Chefs took Hunt in the middle of the 3rd round.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

Except the Chefs took Hunt in the middle of the 3rd round.

So a mid round pick?

[xsoldier54]

Hogan would be our #1 or #2 on this team while Gillislee would only be getting better. We should have paid up...

WE don't, so maybe it's time to move on.

[Doc]

So a mid round pick?

 

I consider anything within the top-100 high round.

[LABILLBACKER]

Tyrod would not be finding Hogan down the field, and Gilislee definitely would not be finding holes Shady can't find Zero change

Gillislee > Tolbert

[KGun12TD]

If sh!t had wings, then it would fly! Geez!!! Stop with the stupid already!

Edited September 25, 2017 by KGun12TD

[Kirby Jackson]

 

I consider anything within the top-100 high round.

I go top 2 rounds as high, 3-5 mid and 6-7 late. I guess it's semantics.

[GreggTX]

Hogan and Gillislee? I suppose Hogan would start, but I can't imagine either would make that much difference. Let's be honest. Hogan was pretty average with Fitz and above average with Brady. That's the real difference.

[cba fan]

Hogan and Gillislee?

 

What people are forgettting is the house cleaning mission McDerma and Beano are on.

 

They just as likely would have cut or traded both those guys. Hogan from first hand accounts is a complete tool in locker room and with fans at times also, so likely kicked ASAP. Based on what Gillislee said after going to Pats he likely would have not bought into the process here with Bills and also gone ASAP.

[CardinalScotts]

we would be 2-1

[blacklabel]

At the time Hogan left they still had some options at receiver. In hindsight I'm sure it'd be nice to have him here but he's not an integral part of any team so it's not like he was irreplaceable.

 

Gillislee is showing so far that he was a product of a well-designed run game. I don't think he's ran for more than 50 yards yet in any game. If I'm being honest though, I'd probably prefer him over Tolbert.

[Ron Burgundy]

We might be 2-1 if we still had them both.

[BADOLBILZ]

You cannot ignore the contract that Pats* gave MG in this discussion. Bills tendered him at the exact replacement value, and so far they've been proven right.

 

Do you think NE is wise to allocate $4 million to what appears to be a one trick pony? He has 0 yards on 2 4th down carries, which was supposed to be his calling card. Pats* would have had better production for less $$ out of Blount. Do you find it odd that in an offense as varied as NE's, MG has not caught a single pass in 3 games?

 

You understate the Bills offensive additions to MG's career average. He's averaged +2 yds more per carry here. You'd figure that playing with Brady, he'd be well over 4.0. But just the fact that his numbers aren't that distinguishable from Tolbert's says a lot.

 

 

Last year MG was much better than Tolbert this year or last.........and MG has 4 TD's and Tolbert has 1 this year.........so in almost all comparable instances his numbers are distinguishable..........but yes, Tolbert has failed on 100% of his 4th down carries this season so you got me there.

 

As for the Bills pegging his replacement value........they haven't replaced him so not sure where you think you've come up with a number.

[jumbalaya]

We should have kept Sammy and gave the Rams a #5 for EJ Gaines. Then make the Matthews trade. Matthews is much better with a #1 & #2 on the team, he is a good #3 slot guy. Anquan would have stayed as the number 2. Bring Zay along without the pressure of having to be a number 1 or 2 on day one.

 

Keeping Gillislee was a no brain-er. Should also bring back J Will.

[GG]

 

 

Last year MG was much better than Tolbert this year or last.........and MG has 4 TD's and Tolbert has 1 this year.........so in almost all comparable instances his numbers are distinguishable..........but yes, Tolbert has failed on 100% of his 4th down carries this season so you got me there.

 

As for the Bills pegging his replacement value........they haven't replaced him so not sure where you think you've come up with a number.

 

And who's comparing 2016 MG to 2017 Tolbert? Oh that's right, nobody but you in yet another attempt to reframe the topic to appear right.

 

The option for Bills wasn't a street free agent Gillislee vs another option, it was paying Gillislee $4 million this year. Genius Bill thought he was getting a 5+ yd a carry RB with that investment, and instead he got a pedestrian back who's very good exploiting wide open holes. For half the investment and more production he should have kept Blount.

 

BTW, Tolbert does not have a 100% failure rate on 4th down conversions this year (unlike MG). In that regard, Tolbert hasn't failed yet.

[Fan in San Diego]

I always liked Hogan and would have preferred we kept him. MG, meh! Who did we keep behind Tolbert? Williams or ?

[NoSaint]

We should have kept Sammy and gave the Rams a #5 for EJ Gaines. Then make the Matthews trade. Matthews is much better with a #1 & #2 on the team, he is a good #3 slot guy. Anquan would have stayed as the number 2. Bring Zay along without the pressure of having to be a number 1 or 2 on day one.

 

Keeping Gillislee was a no brain-er. Should also bring back J Will.

Hard to argue we wouldn't be a more realistic playoff contender with that and still have some ammo for the qb trade if needed still (granted it would likely be a second tier qb)