Would you, right now, trade TT for Deshaun Watson?

[Rochesterfan]

Assuming there's no dead money.

 

I think you have to take Watson's potential to be more than a middling to mediocre starter over a middling to mediocre starter.

 

I would not trade the two - they are too similar in my mind. The advantage would be cap savings and control, but you have a potential at a QB that could be worse.

 

To me Watson was a draft option to grow under TT, but I would not want Watson without TT on the roster.

 

I am not sure any of the top QBs will be more than low to mid-level QBs from this draft - so if I was going to trade TT give me a more polished pocket passer not Watson.

[JM57]

Yes. His floor is basically Tyrod Taylor, and at half the price.

[Bill_with_it]

Yes. His floor is basically Tyrod Taylor, and at half the price.

So your saying his floor iscto lead a top ten scoring offense, historically low turnover rate, and a 89.7 rating?

[JM57]

So your saying his floor iscto lead a top ten scoring offense, historically low turnover rate, and a 89.7 rating?

Oh you're one of those guys. Yes, his floor is probably "average starting QB" unless he's got issues with the mental side of the game and can't grasp a playbook.

[ALF]

Watching Sammy's highlights , Taylor was connecting amazing passes into tight double coverage.

 

I want to see one healthy year for both and hope Dawkins can be the solid RT.

[jeffismagic]

Benjamin Allbright‏Verified account @AllbrightNFL May 1

More

Post-Draft survey show most teams had Watson as the #3 QB on their boards, a couple even lower than that. No one, including Hou, had him #1.

 

https://twitter.com/AllbrightNFL/status/859051986599247872

[Jasovon]

Watson is this year's Jimmy clausen. He will be garbage and may never start a game.

[Buffaloed in Pa]

Couldn`t we just have drafted him ?

[BarleyNY]

Yes. His floor is basically Tyrod Taylor, and at half the price.

Watson' floor could be much lower than Tyrod's - and I'm not a big Taylor fan. He's a serviceable bridge QB. We don't know what Watson is yet, but I don't like his weak arm or lack of accuracy. The OP's guidelines were not to consider draft capital spent or cap consequences in the comparison, but if you do - and you did - then no way do I take Watson. I wouldn't have touched him anywhere close to 10. Sure, his contract would be lower, but it'll also be guaranteed for 4 seasons and we wouldn't have two first round and one third round pick to spend on other players. NFW do I take Watson in the realistic scenario.

[jeffismagic]

Watson' floor could be much lower than Tyrod's - and I'm not a big Taylor fan. He's a serviceable bridge QB. We don't know what Watson is yet, but I don't like his weak arm or lack of accuracy. The OP's guidelines were not to consider draft capital spent or cap consequences in the comparison, but if you do - and you did - then no way do I take Watson. I wouldn't have touched him anywhere close to 10. Sure, his contract would be lower, but it'll also be guaranteed for 4 seasons and we wouldn't have two first round and one third round pick to spend on other players. NFW do I take Watson in the realistic scenario.

 

That's why you trade Tyrod to get more picks.

 

Trade Tyrod for Deshaun Watson.

 

Trade Deshaun Watson for equivalent of 2 1st round picks.

 

Trade a 5th next year for Foles or Siemian to start.

 

You start a comparable QB to Tyrod and get 2 1st round picks! Winning.

[dbflaBill]

I dont get the hate for TT. He has done enough with the offense the last 2 years for them to be good enough to make the playoffs. The sole reason the Bills didnt make it is because of the defense, not because of TT.

[BILLiever55]

With two firsts next year in a better QB class, no. If tyrod clicks this year, awesome. If not, we package our firsts and move up for QB. If we had Watson, good or bad, we'd be invested.

 

Basically what I'm getting at

 

2018 QB draft class > Watson

[C.Biscuit97]

I back my judgment on Deshaun. I believe he has a very good chance to be a Franchise quarterback. So yes, I would. Doesn't mean I hate Tyrod... just means I think he is already at his ceiling.

Tyrod hater!!!

 

And I agree. Tyrod is the 2nd best Bills qb in the last 10 years (I think Fitz was slightly better because he was asked to win games and had way less talent). But like with Fitz, you are limited. And limited gives you false hope and you end up constantly spinning your wheels.

 

Watson may very well be worse than Taylor. But he also could be better. And if Mahomes or Watson ends up being franchise qbs, it could be a very bad trade.

With two firsts next year in a better QB class, no. If tyrod clicks this year, awesome. If not, we package our firsts and move up for QB. If we had Watson, good or bad, we'd be invested.

 

Basically what I'm getting at

 

2018 QB draft class > Watson

1) next years qb class is always better. Remember when Jake Locker or Matt Leinart were going to be the number 1 pick but returned to college?

 

2) if the class is as good as everyone says, why would a bad team not pick the top qbs? Maybe we can trade up and get the next Losman!

Edited May 4, 2017 by C.Biscuit97

[Kirby Jackson]

The reason that I answered "I don't know" is because I don't know who the Bills are. If they are set on reaching the playoffs, it is Tyrod. If they are hitting the reset it is Watson.

[Bangarang]

I dont get the hate for TT. He has done enough with the offense the last 2 years for them to be good enough to make the playoffs. The sole reason the Bills didnt make it is because of the defense, not because of TT.

Tyrod is absolutely part of the reason why we didn't make the playoffs.

 

People just don't think he's good enough to be a long term option and there's certainly enough proof to make that a valid opinion.

Edited May 4, 2017 by Bangarang

[DJB]

Yes because we knkw what TT is. Watson could be a franchise guy and im willing to gamble on that

[dbflaBill]

Yes because we knkw what TT is. Watson could be a franchise guy and im willing to gamble on that

lets just keep changing coaches and QBs every 2-3 years, that seems to work.

[hondo in seattle]

Without critiquing Watson's game, I think about it in a probabilistic way.

 

Given the low success rate of 1st round QBs, the chances that Watson ends up better than TT are slim.

 

Chasing after longshots is more likely to make the Bills worse, not better.

Edited May 4, 2017 by hondo in seattle

[JohnC]

The reason that I answered "I don't know" is because I don't know who the Bills are. If they are set on reaching the playoffs, it is Tyrod. If they are hitting the reset it is Watson.

The Bills are not a playoff roster with or without TT. They simply are too thin from a starting roster standpoint but more importantly are very thin with their reserve staffing. The gambling community at this premature juncture are pegging the Bills to be a six win team. No one is arguing that they are a final authority on anything. But they are outside eyes who have no stake in this franchise other than from a gambling and business perspective. So they have no incentive to over or under rate this team.

 

My view of what McDermott is going to do is cull this roster and get rid of a lot of players associated with the Whaley regime. He will steadily be bringing in players who better suit his profile of player. Players such as Dareus and Henderson will either demonstrate a commitment to the game and a serious work ethic or will be sent packing.

 

There is no quick fix. The organization is going to be completely overhauled with the authority going through the wrestling HC. It's going to take at least three years to stabilize this very unstable franchise. As far as I am concerned the Pegulas set this franchise back by years and made Whaley's job impossible because of the moronic Rex hire. Now they are attempting to rectify much of what they created.

[jeffismagic]

The Bills are not a playoff roster with or without TT. They simply are too thin from a starting roster standpoint but more importantly are very thin with their reserve staffing. The gambling community at this premature juncture are pegging the Bills to be a six win team. No one is arguing that they are a final authority on anything. But they are outside eyes who have no stake in this franchise other than from a gambling and business perspective. So they have no incentive to over or under rate this team.

 

My view of what McDermott is going to do is cull this roster and get rid of a lot of players associated with the Whaley regime. He will steadily be bringing in players who better suit his profile of player. Players such as Dareus and Henderson will either demonstrate a commitment to the game and a serious work ethic or will be sent packing.

 

There is no quick fix. The organization is going to be completely overhauled with the authority going through the wrestling HC. It's going to take at least three years to stabilize this very unstable franchise. As far as I am concerned the Pegulas set this franchise back by years and made Whaley's job impossible because of the moronic Rex hire. Now they are attempting to rectify much of what they created.

 

And does anyone expect the Pegulas to give Sean three years if he wins only 12 games and loses 20 over the next 2 years? Based on recent history I would say no.

[xsoldier54]

Houston gave up 2 1st round picks for Watson. I would trade TT in a heartbeat for a similar haul.

That wasn't the question. I'd trade him for 2 first round picks as well, but not for Watson.

[jeffismagic]

That wasn't the question. I'd trade him for 2 first round picks as well, but not for Watson.

 

Yes, I answered I would trade Tyrod for Deshaun Watson in a heartbeat. I would then turn Watson into two 1st round picks or the equivalent.

 

Watson's value > Tyrod's Value.

 

Not even close.

Edited May 4, 2017 by jeffismagic

[dbflaBill]

Lets not forget it was only TT 2nd year playing really. He sat for all those years in Baltimore. This is the big year for him. I don't feel much judgement can be made until after this year. Unfortunately for him hes on his 3rd OC in 3 years. Luckily he worked his Dennison in Baltimore.

[JohnC]

 

And does anyone expect the Pegulas to give Sean three years if he wins only 12 games and loses 20 over the next 2 years? Based on recent history I would say no.

I respectively but strenuously disagree with you. The organization is going through a complete remake. The roster is also going to go through a major remake. Too many people are falsely reading what is going on here. This isn't a situation where a little patchwork is going to put this team over the hump. What is clearly demonstrated (at least to me) is that McDermott has convinced the owner in his pitch for the job that the problem with the organization isn't incremental but a structural problem. That's not a quick fix situation.

 

Pegula lacks knowledge in the football business. But he certainly isn't a fool. When you hire someone with full authority to top to bottom rebuild your complex organization you are not going into the endeavor as a quick patch up job. Pegula's start as an owner indicated that he had a tendency to act very impulsively and rashly. It seems to me that with the way he is empowering the wrestling coach that he is going to stand back and let the process move forward. He saw how his first method was disastrous so now he is going in the opposite direction.

[Bangarang]

lets just keep changing coaches and QBs every 2-3 years, that seems to work.

The alternative is keeping mediocre players and finishing with mediocre draft picks. 7-9 or 8-8 is not the place you want to be.

Lets not forget it was only TT 2nd year playing really. He sat for all those years in Baltimore. This is the big year for him. I don't feel much judgement can be made until after this year. Unfortunately for him hes on his 3rd OC in 3 years. Luckily he worked his Dennison in Baltimore.

It's his 7th year in the league and 3rd year starting. It's very likely this is his ceiling.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

 

Yes, I answered I would trade Tyrod for Deshaun Watson in a heartbeat. I would then turn Watson into two 1st round picks or the equivalent.

 

Watson's value > Tyrod's Value.

 

Not even close.

 

This is probably the conclusion i'd come to. It's like a madden move - keep trading until you somehow secure the #1 pick. 0% chance someone trades a 1st round QB in the first 4 years unless the offer is for higher picks in a better QB draft.

[Ramza86]

Who wouldnt take a chance on Watson? I dont even like Watson...but still.

 

You already know what Tyrod brings to the table. Hes solid...but lets be real as a passer...its not enough.

 

Easy yes for me.

Edited May 4, 2017 by Ramza86

[Kirby Jackson]

The Bills are not a playoff roster with or without TT. They simply are too thin from a starting roster standpoint but more importantly are very thin with their reserve staffing. The gambling community at this premature juncture are pegging the Bills to be a six win team. No one is arguing that they are a final authority on anything. But they are outside eyes who have no stake in this franchise other than from a gambling and business perspective. So they have no incentive to over or under rate this team.

 

My view of what McDermott is going to do is cull this roster and get rid of a lot of players associated with the Whaley regime. He will steadily be bringing in players who better suit his profile of player. Players such as Dareus and Henderson will either demonstrate a commitment to the game and a serious work ethic or will be sent packing.

 

There is no quick fix. The organization is going to be completely overhauled with the authority going through the wrestling HC. It's going to take at least three years to stabilize this very unstable franchise. As far as I am concerned the Pegulas set this franchise back by years and made Whaley's job impossible because of the moronic Rex hire. Now they are attempting to rectify much of what they created.

Maybe they aren't a playoff roster but don't underestimate how truly awful Rex Ryan was. On Christmas Eve the Bills were 1:30 from being a playoff team and his garbage decisions cost them. I think that the talent on offense is as good or better (although I'm not sold on Dennison). The defensive talent is worse but my hope is the McDermott's scheme keeps that flowing. I have my doubts. At the same time 10 wins isn't out of the question. It will be somewhere between 6 & 10 wins IMO so obviously they will need things to bounce their way to get there (and they still can't win a Super Bowl). I guess, they CAN be a playoff team.

[DefenseWins]

why would I want to trade a QB that has proven he can play starting QB in the NFL for a rookie?

 

Yeah, he has definitely proven that he can "PLAY" starting QB... The rookie at least has an upside...

Maybe they aren't a playoff roster but don't underestimate how truly awful Rex Ryan was. On Christmas Eve the Bills were 1:30 from being a playoff team and his garbage decisions cost them. I think that the talent on offense is as good or better (although I'm not sold on Dennison). The defensive talent is worse but my hope is the McDermott's scheme keeps that flowing. I have my doubts. At the same time 10 wins isn't out of the question. It will be somewhere between 6 & 10 wins IMO so obviously they will need things to bounce their way to get there (and they still can't win a Super Bowl). I guess, they CAN be a playoff team.

 

IMHO 10 wins is definitely out of the question - even before you look at the schedule....

[GoBills808]

Maybe they aren't a playoff roster but don't underestimate how truly awful Rex Ryan was. On Christmas Eve the Bills were 1:30 from being a playoff team and his garbage decisions cost them. I think that the talent on offense is as good or better (although I'm not sold on Dennison). The defensive talent is worse but my hope is the McDermott's scheme keeps that flowing. I have my doubts. At the same time 10 wins isn't out of the question. It will be somewhere between 6 & 10 wins IMO so obviously they will need things to bounce their way to get there (and they still can't win a Super Bowl). I guess, they CAN be a playoff team.

I wouldn't count on McDermott suddenly righting the ship on defense. I know that's the expectation, but that Carolina roster was absolutely loaded, especially along the front 7. We don't have anything in the way of LBs to compare, and if we get another season of Dareus dogging it and Williams showing his age...watch out.

[JohnC]

Maybe they aren't a playoff roster but don't underestimate how truly awful Rex Ryan was. On Christmas Eve the Bills were 1:30 from being a playoff team and his garbage decisions cost them. I think that the talent on offense is as good or better (although I'm not sold on Dennison). The defensive talent is worse but my hope is the McDermott's scheme keeps that flowing. I have my doubts. At the same time 10 wins isn't out of the question. It will be somewhere between 6 & 10 wins IMO so obviously they will need things to bounce their way to get there (and they still can't win a Super Bowl). I guess, they CAN be a playoff team.

Who on this board has been a harsher critic of Rex than I? Who on this board has more often stated that Rex was not only a bad coach but he set this franchise back by years? Where we have a fundamental disagreement is that I don't believe this roster is as good as you think it is. In addition, we have a fundamental disagreement on how good TT is and can be. I see this team as a 6 to 7 win team, and if McDermott coaches the team to 8 wins he will have done a superb job.

 

If you examine the Bills record over the past five years or so what you will find that our established record doesn't illustrate how mediocre our team is. The record against winning teams is dismal. My point is that the record understates the true status of the team.

 

When you watch a good team with a qood qb playing and compare it to a Buffalo game there is a stark qualitative difference to the caliber of play. In my estimation the Bills are not close to being a playoff team. The organization is going through a dramatic change and the roster will steadily be reworked to the point that the Whaley imprint will be negligible. What I have often stated and still strongly hold to is that until the qb position is significantly upgrade this team will continue to flounder. While you understandably have a more positive view my view is much more jaundiced. I say with utmost confidence that this team is not a playoff team. It comes down to different folks with different judgments.

Edited May 4, 2017 by JohnC

[Kemp2Warlick]

no

[C.Biscuit97]

Who on this board has been a harsher critic of Rex than I? Who on this board has more often stated that Rex was not only a bad coach but he set this franchise back by years? Where we have a fundamental disagreement is that I don't believe this roster is as good as you think it is. In addition, we have a fundamental disagreement on how good TT is and can be. I see this team as a 6 to 7 win team, and if McDermott coaches the team to 8 wins he will have done a superb job.

 

If you examine the Bills record over the past five years or so what you will find that our established record doesn't illustrate how mediocre our team is. The record against winning teams is dismal. My point is that the record understates the true status of the team.

 

When you watch a good team with a qood qb playing and compare it to a Buffalo game there is a stark qualitative difference to the caliber of play. In my estimation the Bills are not close to being a playoff team. The organization is going through a dramatic change and the roster will steadily be reworked to the point that the Whaley imprint will be negligible. What I have often stated and still strongly hold to is that until the qb position is significantly upgrade this team will continue to flounder. While you understandably have a more positive view my view is much more jaundiced. I say with utmost confidence that this team is not a playoff team. It comes down to different folks with different judgments.

Good post John. Most normal people think Taylor is an ok qb. But to act like this was the worst defense ever is just stupid. It was basically average. And when you watch other qbs play, it is a different game than the one Tyrod plays.

 

The opening game, where everyone was healthy, we lost 13-7 that set a tone for the whole season. How was that the defense's fault?

[Kirby Jackson]

Good post John. Most normal people think Taylor is an ok qb. But to act like this was the worst defense ever is just stupid. It was basically average. And when you watch other qbs play, it is a different game than the one Tyrod plays.

 

The opening game, where everyone was healthy, we lost 13-7 that set a tone for the whole season. How was that the defense's fault?

They gave up TDs on 17 of 18 red zone possessions at one point and lost 6 games where the offense scored at least 24 points. The defense was BEYOND atrocious and the metrics actually make them look better than they were. They were 28 in DVOA defense.

[KellyToughII]

I choose option 3 which is neither one

[Guest NeckBeard]

 

Yes, I answered I would trade Tyrod for Deshaun Watson in a heartbeat. I would then turn Watson into two 1st round picks or the equivalent.

 

Watson's value > Tyrod's Value.

 

Not even close.

 

In as much as I disagree with the sentiment of this, there is probably a team out there who would do exactly this, and I can't even include the Bills in this, because DW is toast.

[JohnC]

Good post John. Most normal people think Taylor is an ok qb. But to act like this was the worst defense ever is just stupid. It was basically average. And when you watch other qbs play, it is a different game than the one Tyrod plays.

 

The opening game, where everyone was healthy, we lost 13-7 that set a tone for the whole season. How was that the defense's fault?

I'm sure that it has gotten to the point that many people are tuning me out with my repeated commentary on this issue. The lackadaisical and casual attitude toward upgrading the qb position by our front office/s is in my view extends to the level of malfeasance and nonfeasance. I don't understand it. It's really weird. For almost a qb century our qb staffing has been deficient and yet the organizational spends far more resources and effort in addressing the defensive backfield.

 

As far as how our defense has under-performed what do you expect when an incompetent HC tries to apply his archaic approach to the defense when the roster is suited for another scheme? It really isn't too difficult to understand why the defense plummeted so dramatically. When you have a player mismatch to the changed scheme and factor in the lack of discipline and have discordant voices from too many coaches what is the surprise on how screwed up the defense was.

 

The debate over whether the defense or the offense is worst off and need to be addressed first rings is not the right issue to be debated. They are inextricably linked. Upgrading each side of the ball upgrades the other side of the ball both directly and indirectly.

 

If Mahomes and Watson turn out to be good qbs how is the wrestling coach's first draft going to be viewed? If this staff buys into the notion that TT is more than a bridge qb then this team has a ceiling that puts it in the same fringe position where it has been for most of its inconsequential existence. That is what I am very concerned with.

[BuffaloHokie13]

I'm sure that it has gotten to the point that many people are tuning me out with my repeated commentary on this issue. The lackadaisical and casual attitude toward upgrading the qb position by our front office/s is in my view extends to the level of malfeasance and nonfeasance. I don't understand it. It's really weird. For almost a qb century our qb staffing has been deficient and yet the organizational spends far more resources and effort in addressing the defensive backfield.

 

As far as how our defense has under-performed what do you expect when an incompetent HC tries to apply his archaic approach to the defense when the roster is suited for another scheme? It really isn't too difficult to understand why the defense plummeted so dramatically. When you have a player mismatch to the changed scheme and factor in the lack of discipline and have discordant voices from too many coaches what is the surprise on how screwed up the defense was.

 

The debate over whether the defense or the offense is worst off and need to be addressed first rings is not the right issue to be debated. They are inextricably linked. Upgrading each side of the ball upgrades the other side of the ball both directly and indirectly.

 

If Mahomes and Watson turn out to be good qbs how is the wrestling coach's first draft going to be viewed? If this staff buys into the notion that TT is more than a bridge qb then this team has a ceiling that puts it in the same fringe position where it has been for most of its inconsequential existence. That is what I am very concerned with.

I suppose that ultimately also depends on what we do with the extra 1st in '18 as well.

[Guest NeckBeard]

I'm sure that it has gotten to the point that many people are tuning me out with my repeated commentary on this issue. The lackadaisical and casual attitude toward upgrading the qb position by our front office/s is in my view extends to the level of malfeasance and nonfeasance. I don't understand it. It's really weird. For almost a qb century our qb staffing has been deficient and yet the organizational spends far more resources and effort in addressing the defensive backfield.

 

As far as how our defense has under-performed what do you expect when an incompetent HC tries to apply his archaic approach to the defense when the roster is suited for another scheme? It really isn't too difficult to understand why the defense plummeted so dramatically. When you have a player mismatch to the changed scheme and factor in the lack of discipline and have discordant voices from too many coaches what is the surprise on how screwed up the defense was.

 

The debate over whether the defense or the offense is worst off and need to be addressed first rings is not the right issue to be debated. They are inextricably linked. Upgrading each side of the ball upgrades the other side of the ball both directly and indirectly.

 

If Mahomes and Watson turn out to be good qbs how is the wrestling coach's first draft going to be viewed? If this staff buys into the notion that TT is more than a bridge qb then this team has a ceiling that puts it in the same fringe position where it has been for most of its inconsequential existence. That is what I am very concerned with.

 

The Bills are in a quandary. They don't have that elusive franchise QB, and yet they need to beat teams where having a stout D is also required. Plus, they changed ownership without changing the FO, i.e. no new vision was installed in the subsequent season. I hope this is all a learning experience, and a couple of years from now we are all kicking ourselves about how we got it all wrong, but I sense a lot more mediocrity (and maybe even straight out being awful a couple of years from now) before things get better. Still, I am excited to see how aggressive changes in this org really play out. It's been a LONG time coming.

Edited May 4, 2017 by NeckBeard

[reddogblitz]

I back my judgment on Deshaun. I believe he has a very good chance to be a Franchise quarterback. So yes, I would. Doesn't mean I hate Tyrod... just means I think he is already at his ceiling.

I disagree. He's just getting warmed up.

Oh you're one of those guys. Yes, his floor is probably "average starting QB" unless he's got issues with the mental side of the game and can't grasp a playbook.

 

Or he throws too many picks. He threw a lot in college. And they don't even play defense in college.