Ugh - Playoff Projection not too rosy - even with 10 wins

[Coach55]

It's that time of the year again, where I try to figure out how the Bills get in. I think it is very plausable for us to get 10 wins, given we have 4 very winnable home games and a listless Jets team on the road (I just don't see us beating the Raiders in the Black Hole). Assume we get 10 wins - where does it leave us.

 

Looking at everyone else's schedule and assuming that the home teams win comparable teams and every team beats the crappy teams.

 

NE 8 wins - proj 12 (Wins East) - W - @NYJ, LA, BAL, NYJ - L - @DEN, @MIA

DEN 7 wins - proj 11 (Wins West on TB with Raiders) - W - KC, @JAX, NE, OAK - L - @TEN, @KC

OAK 8 wins - proj 11 (Wins WC 1) - W - CAR, BUF, IND - L - @KC, @SD, @DEN

KC 7 wins - proj 10 (Wins WC 2 - 8 conference wins) - W - OAK, TEN, DEN - L - @DEN, @ATL, @SD

PIT 5 wins - proj 9 (Wins North) - W - NYG, @CIN, BAL, CLE - L - @IND, @BUF

IND 5 wins - proj 9 (Wins South based on division record w/ HOU and TEN) - W - PIT, @NYJ, HOU, JAX - L @MIN, @OAK

Near misses

MIA 6 wins - proj 10 - W - SF, ARI, @NYJ, NE - L - @BAL, @BUF

HOU 5 wins - proj 9 - W - SD, JAX, CIN - L - @GB, @IND, @TEN

TEN 5 wins - proj 9 - W - @CHI, DEN, @JAX, HOU - L - @KC

 

We need to win and need some help. Ugh...

 

[MAJBobby]

They are not getting in the playoffs. Have to win out and that is not happening.

[The Wiz]

They are not getting in the playoffs. Have to win out and that is not happening.

Those NFC West wins coming back to bite us again.

[Gugny]

The best the Bills will do is (8-8), IMO. I'm going with (7-9).

[dollars 2 donuts]

They are not getting in the playoffs. Have to win out and that is not happening.

 

 

Yes. Even after the New England loss I thought that they only way they get in is with a 7-1 second half.

 

After Seattle...run the table baby, but not likely.

 

The only thing 10-6 does is save Rex's job. I'm not sure that happens if he is 9-7 or less.

[section122]

 

 

Yes. Even after the New England loss I thought that they only way they get in is with a 7-1 second half.

 

After Seattle...run the table baby, but not likely.

 

The only thing 10-6 does is save Rex's job. I'm not sure that happens if he is 9-7 or less.

 

I would absolutely HATE firing Rex if the Bills go 9-7. Losing Dareus for the first 7 games, Sammy for 8, Aaron Williams for 10, McCoy for 2 and somehow going 9-7 would be a heckuva coaching job.

[Gugny]

 

I would absolutely HATE firing Rex if the Bills go 9-7. Losing Dareus for the first 7 games, Sammy for 8, Aaron Williams for 10, McCoy for 2 and somehow going 9-7 would be a heckuva coaching job.

 

What kind of a coaching job is going (8-8) following a (9-7) season?

[MAJBobby]

 

What kind of a coaching job is going (8-8) following a (9-7) season?

Apparently a good one (LoL) let's just do what LA did and extend the career mediocre coach

[quinnearlysghost88]

what about 11 wins?!?!?!?!??!

[John from Riverside]

I am curious about what peoples thoughts would be if we went 10-6 and didnt make the playoffs

 

Do they still suck? cuz in a normal year that would be a enough

[section122]

 

What kind of a coaching job is going (8-8) following a (9-7) season?

 

 

Apparently a good one (LoL) let's just do what LA did and extend the career mediocre coach

 

Down the rabbit hole...

 

So many key players hurt last year but still it wasn't a great coaching job by Rex last year. People don't want to pay attention to the rest of the league...

 

Is John Harbaugh a great coach? He followed up a 10-6 year with 5-11 in 2015

 

Rex came into a new team and after 2 years would be 17-15. The Buffalo Bills over 2 years would be 17-15. Did you forget who you root for? Some perspective for you, 17-15 over 2 years would be the Bills best stretch since 99-00.

[MAJBobby]

I am curious about what peoples thoughts would be if we went 10-6 and didnt make the playoffs

 

Do they still suck? cuz in a normal year that would be a enough

10-6 no playoffs will make people happy.

 

I still want Rex Gone even after a 10-6 season with no playoffs but that's because I don't think he is a good HC.

 

Because 10-6 missing the playoffs is still on them and their piss poor conference record

[CodeMonkey]

 

The Buffalo Bills over 2 years would be 17-15. Did you forget who you root for? Some perspective for you, 17-15 over 2 years would be the Bills best stretch since 99-00.

 

Wow, how depressing is that.

[MAJBobby]

 

 

 

Down the rabbit hole...

 

So many key players hurt last year but still it wasn't a great coaching job by Rex last year. People don't want to pay attention to the rest of the league...

 

Is John Harbaugh a great coach? He followed up a 10-6 year with 5-11 in 2015

 

Rex came into a new team and after 2 years would be 17-15. The Buffalo Bills over 2 years would be 17-15. Did you forget who you root for? Some perspective for you, 17-15 over 2 years would be the Bills best stretch since 99-00.

Great 17-15 not good enough but hey let's keep him and we can have the discussion again next year when that is 25-23

[BarleyNY]

Rex came into a new team and after 2 years would be 17-15. The Buffalo Bills over 2 years would be 17-15. Did you forget who you root for? Some perspective for you, 17-15 over 2 years would be the Bills best stretch since 99-00.

Wow, how depressing is that.

Incredibly depressing.

[section122]

 

Wow, how depressing is that.

 

Very but I feel like people lose perspective a lot around here. This team has been bad for a long time. Had 1 good year (if Rex had that year though it would suck because he sucks ) and all of a sudden Rex ruined the team by finishing 1 game worse with an injury depleted version of the same team.

 

Great 17-15 not good enough but hey let's keep him and we can have the discussion again next year when that is 25-23

 

Wow you know what their record will be next year?!?!?!? Can you tell me the lotto numbers for tonight? It will greatly free me up and would be much appreciated.

[Spurna]

I'd rather Rex stay and hover around 8-8 for 5 years than start rebuilding again

[HOUSE]

I will go with 9-7

[section122]

10-6 no playoffs will make people happy.

 

I still want Rex Gone even after a 10-6 season with no playoffs but that's because I don't think he is a good HC.

 

Because 10-6 missing the playoffs is still on them and their piss poor conference record

 

 

10-6 would guarantee the playoffs in 2 of the last 5 years. It would tie you with the 6 seed in the other 3 years.

 

10-6 would be the Bills best record since 1999.

 

Firing a coach after going 10-6 would give a lot of other candidates pause. Who would take the job where 10-6 gets you fired. Who would take THE BILLS job if 10-6 gets you fired. Firing for any less that 7-9 would imo cause a lot of coaches to put the Bills on their "nope not going there list"

[MAJBobby]

 

Very but I feel like people lose perspective a lot around here. This team has been bad for a long time. Had 1 good year (if Rex had that year though it would suck because he sucks ) and all of a sudden Rex ruined the team by finishing 1 game worse with an injury depleted version of the same team.

 

 

Wow you know what their record will be next year?!?!?!? Can you tell me the lotto numbers for tonight? It will greatly free me up and would be much appreciated.

Ha ha ha Have you watched this team. What has been their record essentially for the past 16 years?

[Gugny]

 

 

 

Down the rabbit hole...

 

So many key players hurt last year but still it wasn't a great coaching job by Rex last year. People don't want to pay attention to the rest of the league...

 

Is John Harbaugh a great coach? He followed up a 10-6 year with 5-11 in 2015

 

Rex came into a new team and after 2 years would be 17-15. The Buffalo Bills over 2 years would be 17-15. Did you forget who you root for? Some perspective for you, 17-15 over 2 years would be the Bills best stretch since 99-00.

 

If Rex Ryan continues to be a head coach for a few more years, he'll be known as Jeff Fisher, Jr.

 

It's been a looooong time since Rex coached a successful team.

[John from Riverside]

 

 

10-6 would guarantee the playoffs in 2 of the last 5 years. It would tie you with the 6 seed in the other 3 years.

 

10-6 would be the Bills best record since 1999.

 

Firing a coach after going 10-6 would give a lot of other candidates pause. Who would take the job where 10-6 gets you fired. Who would take THE BILLS job if 10-6 gets you fired. Firing for any less that 7-9 would imo cause a lot of coaches to put the Bills on their "nope not going there list"

Has a HC actually been fired after a record like that (I do seem to remember it happening once)

Ha ha ha Have you watched this team. What has been their record essentially for the past 16 years?

Bobby you really need to let go of the "last 16 years thing"

 

New Ownership

Different GMs along the way

Different coaches along the way

 

but every year is a new year.....its not one big beating (though sometimes it does feel like that)

[MAJBobby]

 

 

10-6 would guarantee the playoffs in 2 of the last 5 years. It would tie you with the 6 seed in the other 3 years.

 

10-6 would be the Bills best record since 1999.

 

Firing a coach after going 10-6 would give a lot of other candidates pause. Who would take the job where 10-6 gets you fired. Who would take THE BILLS job if 10-6 gets you fired. Firing for any less that 7-9 would imo cause a lot of coaches to put the Bills on their "nope not going there list"

That's fine 10-6 and no playoffs keep him.

 

I wouldn't never liked the hire to begins with still don't I think he is a poor HC and very over rated as a HC. So sorry that is my opinion of him and nothing is going to change that if we are out of the playoffs.

Has a HC actually been fired after a record like that (I do seem to remember it happening once)

 

Bobby you really need to let go of the "last 16 years thing"

 

New Ownership

Different GMs along the way

Different coaches along the way

 

but every year is a new year.....its not one big beating (though sometimes it does feel like that)

No I really don't until the Bills have proven to me that I can shut the door on the past 16 years. They haven't Edited November 22, 2016 by MAJBobby

[section122]

Ha ha ha Have you watched this team. What has been their record essentially for the past 16 years?

 

Exactly my point. What has their record been? I love that you are bashing the team but somehow Rex sucks because he can't take this team to 11-5 (as you stated 10-6 should still get him fired). Shirley you see the irony? The Bills are missing the piece that drives all teams that are consistently successful. A stud QB. Tyrod may get there but as one of his biggest detractors you obviously don't think he will ever get there.

 

So going off of your opinions:

 

Tyrod is terrible so the Bills are bad at one of the most important positions in all of sports and the Bills are consistently mediocre so much so that you can put next years record in the bank but Rex should win with this and he sucks even if he goes 10-6 with all of this?

 

hmmm...

 

Has a HC actually been fired after a record like that (I do seem to remember it happening once)

 

 

Marty Schottenheimer from the Chargers. They replaced him with Norv Turner and never got back to the records Marty was putting up.

[Kirby Jackson]

ESPN had them at 68.7% if they will 10 games and 99% at 11 games and like 9% at 9 wins.

[Nostradumbass]

I think as a Bills fan we have to lose the concept of sneaking into the playoffs

 

Playoffs are for the most part the territory of really, really good teams (I get that weak division winners get in sometimes)

 

If the Bills are playoff worthy they'l run the table, it's not that difficult of a schedule that it's undo-able

[The Wiz]

 

If Rex Ryan continues to be a head coach for a few more years, he'll be known as Jeff Fisher, Jr.

 

It's been a looooong time since Rex coached a successful team.

Rex doesn't hold a candle to what Fisher. Fisher has more losses than Rex has as total games coached.

[MAJBobby]

 

Exactly my point. What has their record been? I love that you are bashing the team but somehow Rex sucks because he can't take this team to 11-5 (as you stated 10-6 should still get him fired). Shirley you see the irony? The Bills are missing the piece that drives all teams that are consistently successful. A stud QB. Tyrod may get there but as one of his biggest detractors you obviously don't think he will ever get there.

 

So going off of your opinions:

 

Tyrod is terrible so the Bills are bad at one of the most important positions in all of sports and the Bills are consistently mediocre so much so that you can put next years record in the bank but Rex should win with this and he sucks even if he goes 10-6 with all of this?

 

hmmm...

 

 

Marty Schottenheimer from the Chargers. They replaced him with Norv Turner and never got back to the records Marty was putting up.

Yeah my opinion is Rex is not a good HC, but ok you think otherwise Cool.

[Kirby Jackson]

10 wins is not out of the question. The Bills will be the favorite in the Jags game, Jets game and Browns game. The Miami and potentially Pittsburgh games will be coin flips. The Oakland game the Bills will be the underdog. If they handle the 3 trash teams (I think that they will), they will have to win 2 of the 3 against the playoff contenders in the AFC (I don't think that they will). 9-7 feels about right to me at this point but 10-6 isn't impossible.

We need the AFC West to fall back some. They play each other a bunch.

[BringBackFergy]

Failed to take care of business when we had to...Ravens and Jets.

[Gugny]

Rex doesn't hold a candle to what Fisher. Fisher has more losses than Rex has as total games coached.

 

I was exaggerating. Just trying to make a point that he's sucked at being a HC for a while, now.

[NastyNateSoldiers]

If we finish 10-6 that makes us 18-14 since Rex took over. With all the injuries these past 2 seasons I would say that's a great job. We haven't been healthy since week 3 of 2015 vs Mia. BTW fellas our coaching staff is outstanding. Lynn, Kromor, Sanjay,Palmer,Lee,Blake,April Jr,Rob,Reed,Timmy & Crossman.

[ALF]

I am curious about what peoples thoughts would be if we went 10-6 and didnt make the playoffs

 

Do they still suck? cuz in a normal year that would be a enough

 

If the Bills could go 10-6 with so many injuries , I would look forward like crazy to the draft and next season with this coaching staff.

[cale]

This is a far more realistic playoff projection app. Right now our chances are slim to none.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html?_r=0

[Kirby Jackson]

Failed to take care of business when we had to...Ravens and Jets.

Agreed here, I think that EITHER of those games is going to end up being the difference in a playoff spot

[MAJBobby]

This is a far more realistic playoff projection app. Right now our chances are slim to none.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html?_r=0

Sshhhhhhh we are "In the Hunt Mode" as Bills fans for the next 4 weeks

[Kirby Jackson]

This is a far more realistic playoff projection app. Right now our chances are slim to none.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html?_r=0

That's about right at 20% (ish). The bottom line is that the Bills have to win 5 of 6 to have a chance. The next 3 weeks will tell the story. At 2-1 they will have a decent chance and at 3-0 they would be in GREAT shape. If they don't win at least 2 of these next 3 they are out.

[section122]

Agreed here, I think that EITHER of those games is going to end up being the difference in a playoff spot

 

My BBFS has been tingling since the schedule release.

 

I see us with the same scenario the Jets were in last year. All down to the final game and against the Jets who have nothing to play for. It will be Fitz's Super Bowl again. It just lines up to perfectly . I will be a wreck all week leading up to that game if that is the case lol

[zow2]

I am curious about what peoples thoughts would be if we went 10-6 and didnt make the playoffs

 

Do they still suck? cuz in a normal year that would be a enough

If they go 10-6 and miss it they don't suck.

 

The whole playoff drought is directly tied to New England success. the Bills, Fish and Jets are all in the top 10 of current playoff droughts. If we played in a normal division where all the teams had up-cycles and down-cycles the Bills would've won a division in 16 years. It's just harder to earn a Wild Card than occasionally bubble to the surface in a mediocre division,

[Chuck Wagon]

10 wins is not out of the question. The Bills will be the favorite in the Jags game, Jets game and Browns game. The Miami and potentially Pittsburgh games will be coin flips. The Oakland game the Bills will be the underdog. If they handle the 3 trash teams (I think that they will), they will have to win 2 of the 3 against the playoff contenders in the AFC (I don't think that they will). 9-7 feels about right to me at this point but 10-6 isn't impossible.

We need the AFC West to fall back some. They play each other a bunch.

 

 

Agreed here, I think that EITHER of those games is going to end up being the difference in a playoff spot

 

 

I think you are dead on with both points here. I fully expect a 9-7 / 10-6 type year forcing a holding pattern into next year. It's an extremely steep hill to climb to grab a playoff spot and the combination of those two losses, giving away the dolphins game and the Seattle MNF mess is likely too big a hill to climb.

 

 

 

Does it make me a bad fan to hope the wheels completely fall off and we go 5-11 or 6-10? We can still grab a top 10 pick and we've had the "feel good" 9-7 year recently. My biggest fear would be Rex coaching just good enough and TT playing just good enough for a "run it back" year next year with TT's contract costing us Gilmore and/or someone else only to have the wheels completely fall off next year.