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Realistically, how does this all play out?


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I'm floored at the negativity and doom and gloom in these threads.

 

The Bills are 3-4 and have two weeks to heal up and start kicking butt. IMO the Bills will be making the playoffs this year. The Jets and Steelers both have brutal schedules where the Bills ends much easier.

 

For instance...

The Jets finish the season against the @Giants, Titans, @Cowboys, Patriots and @Bills

The Steelers finish @Seahawks, Colts, @Bengals, Broncos, @Ravens and @Browns

The Bills finish @Chiefs, Texans, @Eagles, @Redskins, Cowboys and Jets

 

Why are fans panicking so much around here?LOL

Because Tyrod won't finish the season, we already have 4 losses, the coaching sux, we still play NE, a healthy Dallas, the Jets twice and a surging Miami and our star players can't even stay healthy. How's that for a start?

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I really think we have 24-36 months left in the Brady era. He will eventually not be able to do it or get hurt. The Bills have been crummy for a long time but they have to be near perfect to win the division most years. They have had 15 years of playing against the best franchise in history and as a small market team--good luck. If we were in the NFC east or AFC south we would be perennial contenders.

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I'm floored at the negativity and doom and gloom in these threads.

 

The Bills are 3-4 and have two weeks to heal up and start kicking butt. IMO the Bills will be making the playoffs this year. The Jets and Steelers both have brutal schedules where the Bills ends much easier.

 

For instance...

The Jets finish the season against the @Giants, Titans, @Cowboys, Patriots and @Bills

The Steelers finish @Seahawks, Colts, @Bengals, Broncos, @Ravens and @Browns

The Bills finish @Chiefs, Texans, @Eagles, @Redskins, Cowboys and Jets

 

Why are fans panicking so much around here?LOL

The Jet's win 3 of 5 at least - possibly 4 of 5

The Steelers win 3 of 5

The Bills win 1 of 5 (either Texans or Red Skins)

 

You don't really think Tyrod is the answer at QB do you? And the D has been relatively healthy and is ranked slightly below middle of the pack this year....so much for a quarter of a billion dollars....

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I would love to eat crow. I just hope it tastes like chicken.

 

I was actually trying hard to not be entirely negative in my OP, and I do think they can turn it around and make the playoffs. My point, though, is that if they don't change the trajectory of the season, things could get ugly fast - even by the standards of the last 15 years. I have been and always will be a fan, but looking at yet another rebuild is terrifying.

I am with you, man. My faith this year is grounded in the fact that the injuries have derailed us. There is no chance we lose the game on Sunday with TT playing.

 

But we get healthy and we are back,

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Unless you're ready to fire Ryan I think there's a good chance Whaley also comes back for the reasons you state. You don't want a new GM to have to keep Rex if he's not sold on him. Conversely you don't want ot bring in some GM who is a Rex guy then in two years fire Rex, but now have his hand picked GM still here. So the simple thing is give Whaley one more year, if 2016 is equally bad particularly no improvement defensively, then you're 2 years into Ryans five year deal and would be a little easier for TP to swallow the deal, say it was a mistake a fire them both, then bring in a new GM to also hire a coach of his choosing.

 

IF and this is a big if IMO if the rumors of Whaley and Ryan not being on the same page on many of these deals is true, then the other thing I'd do this off-season if I'm TP is get the two of them together for some "bonding" to try and get them more on the same page. But also wonder how much truth there is to this vs. guys like Sulley and Gleason developing stories to fit their agenda. then you have national guys like Shector picking up the stories as he figures, the local guy must know what's going on.

 

 

 

At this point, it's not unreasonable to think that this season will fall short of expectations. Frankly, any step back from last year's 9-7 finish is a disappointment. Assuming that happens, what do people realistically think happens next? Assuming that we can't just magically trade for a Pro Bowl QB and lure away a top-notch HC, is anyone else worried that we're looking at another two to three year reset?

 

I know the feeling on this board is that Whaley likely goes, and that's probably right. It's also hard to imagine Terry firing Rex one year into a 5 year deal worth close to $28 million. If that all plays out, is the next GM a Rex-guy? And if Rex truly isn't the answer, that's basically setting the stage for a full-blown housecleaning in a couple of years. On the other hand, if they hire a GM who has no ties to Rex, don't we risk having the same scheme-to-personnel mismatch that we're dealing with now (and also a GM biding his time for a year or so to fire Rex and bring in "his guy")?

 

I really didn't want to create yet another thread full of negative speculation, but I'm honestly having trouble seeing how this doesn't end with another "re-build."

 

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Are people suggesting that 7 games into the new regime we need to fire the coaches and GM? Honestly, this is an absurd notion. I know people are tired of not making the playoffs... But there's not a coach, GM, Free agent or draft pick that's going to come in and be 100% right and good and have us on top of the AFC from day 1. The world doesn't work that way people.

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I think the injuries will serve as a rationalization for Pegula. But to me, it's clear that Ryan isn't getting the most out of the defense.

 

i think a thorough analysis would include the inspection of any event that may have moved the needle - inspect the circumstances surrounding an injury, the anticipated performance level of the player lost to injury, the source of his replacement, the effectiveness of his replacement, the impact to productivity of the injured player's unit, the duration of that impact, etc. - are all parts of the season's anatomy. Unfortunately, in our case, they've already contributed quite a bit.

 

I think Whaley is the most vulnerable, football czar or not. How attractive would the GM position be with cap issues and a requirement that you keep Rex? Not sure.

 

i'm not sure how past moves would be weighted in the analysis. i suppose if the actions of anyone in the organization formed a net pattern of poor decision making, their responsibilities would be adjusted or terminated. in the specific case of our GM, his riskier decisions may be considered as high risk - high reward moves that in their worst case scenarios, could be absorbed by the team over a short time. but i don't have a clue how a paid consultant would evaluate them.

 

personally, i think he's done a solid job overall.

Pegula may believe that too - but that's exactly why an outside expert is needed - to expose all the unseen rewards and consequences his managers were responsible for.

Edited by BackInDaDay
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I think Whaley does a very good job stocking the roster. Franchise QB's are not that easy to come by. Firing him would be a mistake. I would not miss Rex for a second, but I seriously doubt he goes anywhere after this season.

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Neither Whaley or Rex are going anywhere after this season. If things dont turn around after next season I can see a house cleaning but one year in I just dont see it. The Pegulas are not as frusterated as Bills fans as they arent the ones who have truely experienced this 15 year drought. They just got here I dont think they'll make rash, overemotional, decisions like most fans.

When does Whaley's contract end? That to me is the most telling fact. He barely survived last year, and they're presently on a path to a worse record than last season. We haven't heard a peep about an extension.

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I got a couple scenarios.

 

1. 8-8ish, no playoffs. Whaley demoted under a football czar who coordinates Rex and Whaley. Hopefully playoffs after that, but probably not. Rex canned year two barring a 10-6 tiebreaker no playoffs.

 

2. 6-10 or worse case scenario. Whaley gone. Football czar with just Rex. Again, same story as above.

 

3. 10-6 and/or playoffs. Whaley may remain the top dog in the FO, but a consultant will be brought in.

So you see no way Whaley keeps his job as is?

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I hope we don't follow the Pegula / Sabre model because there are a lot of parallels

 

Hire popular coach, keep the GM

Spend big on the roster

Under achieve

Purge roster coach GM and tank for a number of seasons

All the time jacking ticket prices

 

Right now the Bills are on step 3

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anyone who fires a coach after 1 year is just a bad organization every year. As far as Rex he's in a tough spot hit with injuries like no one before or since that alone should get him a pass for this year. "Hey this guy can't win with his back ups" - seriously who can? A new coach coming to a new team rarely make the playoffs that year- although i'm not saying they won't this year is shaping up as 9-7 for wildcard. I hope someone can inquire the league about the penalties from bogus pass interference to not knowing the rules on what a chop block is and a legal peel back block. Playing a first year starting qb and missing so far through 7 games guard has missed 3, tackle has missed 2, running backs revolving door, tight end out for the year, both starting wideouts missing 3 1/2 games the other one might be out for the year. Your starting safety and a top defensive tackle. Were running Chris Hogan, Boobie Dixon, Boom Herron, Kraig Urbik, Chris Gragg, EJ Manuel, Corbin Bryant and Duke Williams out there and out fan base is saying ...what ? what's the problem?.......holy crap guys look big picture get realistic. If we have our starters back they will make a playoff push and likely make it, if we have to play the same guys i've listed again over and over were not gonna make it and it's not a coaches fault.

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In my opinion, there is zero chance Rex is gone after 1 year. I think he's here for 3 yrs minimum.

I expect them to hire the "football czar" that Pegula hoped he was getting in Polian.

That guy will decide what happens with Whalley. It would not surprise me for Whalley to get fired or resign.

I also expect a big roster changeover on defense in the offseason since the guys we have don't seem to be executing Rex's scheme well.

I agree this is most likely... but.... they just invested a lot of bucks on the d line long term.

 

If the team doesn't have a good second half, they could have a mutiny. What do they do then?

Are people suggesting that 7 games into the new regime we need to fire the coaches and GM? Honestly, this is an absurd notion. I know people are tired of not making the playoffs... But there's not a coach, GM, Free agent or draft pick that's going to come in and be 100% right and good and have us on top of the AFC from day 1. The world doesn't work that way people.

This mgt has been in charge awhile. Do they get a pass because the coach they hired decided to walk off a cliff instead of coach here another year (possibly due to disfunction in the front office)?

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At this point, it's not unreasonable to think that this season will fall short of expectations. Frankly, any step back from last year's 9-7 finish is a disappointment. Assuming that happens, what do people realistically think happens next? Assuming that we can't just magically trade for a Pro Bowl QB and lure away a top-notch HC, is anyone else worried that we're looking at another two to three year reset?

 

I know the feeling on this board is that Whaley likely goes, and that's probably right. It's also hard to imagine Terry firing Rex one year into a 5 year deal worth close to $28 million. If that all plays out, is the next GM a Rex-guy? And if Rex truly isn't the answer, that's basically setting the stage for a full-blown housecleaning in a couple of years. On the other hand, if they hire a GM who has no ties to Rex, don't we risk having the same scheme-to-personnel mismatch that we're dealing with now (and also a GM biding his time for a year or so to fire Rex and bring in "his guy")?

 

I really didn't want to create yet another thread full of negative speculation, but I'm honestly having trouble seeing how this doesn't end with another "re-build."

 

 

I'd rather get the right GM in here and if Rex can't deal with it then we move on.

 

They better not think Taylor is the answer and I don't care if Whaley or whoever is GM we are going nowhere with out a drop back passer.

 

The best thing for us is to lose out and draft Cook, Goff or Lynch.

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What exact facts bear that out?? Other than speculation as there were all these rumors flying around about Polion coming back in some capacity. That to me is the key, everyone was assuming he was going to be the GM, but I doubt that was ever the case and that's why he's not here.

 

When does Whaley's contract end? That to me is the most telling fact. He barely survived last year, and they're presently on a path to a worse record than last season. We haven't heard a peep about an extension.

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We really don't know what's going on behind the scenes or in the locker room. We've heard that some players are unhappy with how they've been used, but that was after a tough loss and that talk hasn't gotten out of hand. I don't see the Bills making the playoffs, but I don't see any big changes either. Has anyone heard how the relationship between Whaley and Rex is? I've heard nothing negative on that front - unlike with Whaley and Marrone. So if the coach and the GM are working well together and Rex hasn't lost the team I don't see any big changes. IMO it would be a big mistake to make any unless there's some real issues that haven't come to light.

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