schukamaru Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2015/the-new-england-patriots-mysteriously-became-fumble-proof-in-2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papazoid Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 rut ro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandius Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 haha, i think we all knew it was going to be that link when we saw the thread title  man, whether you agree with the analysis or not, that dude has probably collected tons of new subscribers to his gambling site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddaryl Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I saw another report that put together the similar data  its another smoking gun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTown Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 (edited) VERY INTERESTING! I had totally forgotten that it was Brady (and few others) that were lobbying for that change in policy on who provides the footballs. Â I believe that when all is said and done, Roger is going to be forced to punish the Patriots harshly. IMO, they will never save their tarnished image by pinning De-flate Gate on a poor minion and think the public out-cry would not cause irreparable damage. Particularly, with multi-billion dollar sponsors reputations also at stake. Â I'm actually hoping that NE wins, so Roger has to stand on that stage next Sunday night and hand that trophy to Belicheat and Tom "soft balls" Brady knowing damn well they should never have been there representing the AFC to begin with., and if he (Roger) had done his due diligence during Spy-Gate the Patriots would not likely relevant anyway. Edited January 27, 2015 by JTown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nanker Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 IN case you missed it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Wait a minute, this sounds interesting. Tell me more!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 (edited) So Brady pushed for this rule change 8 years ago, but bellicheat never asked him why? Because he had "no knowledge" of ball prep before his psi cram session over the weekend Edited January 27, 2015 by YoloinOhio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBillsWillRiseAgain Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Does this prove without a shadow of a doubt they've been deflating balls since 2007? No. But it sure as hell looks extremely suspicious that they just so happen to start having a drastic reduction in fumbles the same year that a rule that Brady pushed for gets passed. A rule that allows them to prep their own balls, which would allow them to purposely deflate balls which is what they're now being accused of doing. Â The timing matches up perfectly. Brady being one of the main proponents of the rule change matches up perfectly. Suspiciously low fumble numbers and suspiciously high cold weather passing numbers match up perfectly. The accusations by the NFL right now matches up with all that. The science matches up with disproving the explanation given by Bellichick. You have to be looking pretty hard for a reason to find the Patriots innocent to not come to the conclusion that it's very likely they cheated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterpan Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Not surprised one bit. I've been saying they cheat for ever. I'm glad this is getting so much attention because you know the nfl just wants it swept under the rug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
firemedic Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 WOW....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidkski Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Even the homers in the Boston media are reporting it now. Â The data is so skewed it defies any rational explanation. And it certainly lends creedance to the theory that once Bellichek and the Pats were caught cheating in SPygate they simply found new rules to flout. Â It'd be fascinating to track down all the Pats ballboys since Brady convinced the league to change the rule and see if any of them can corroborate it. Â http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/2015/01/25/patriots-fumble-nearly-impossible-rate/LCgrlUR9qgxDsIgcal9dUI/story.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jester43 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 has anyone looked at their fumble rate when receiving punts/kicks? presumably those balls are inflated to the max. Â if their fumble rate was the same as other teams when receiving punts/kicks, but much less on plays from scrimmage, that would be pretty damning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Even the homers in the Boston media are reporting it now. Â The data is so skewed it defies any rational explanation. And it certainly lends creedance to the theory that once Bellichek and the Pats were caught cheating in SPygate they simply found new rules to flout. Â It'd be fascinating to track down all the Pats ballboys since Brady convinced the league to change the rule and see if any of them can corroborate it. Â http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/2015/01/25/patriots-fumble-nearly-impossible-rate/LCgrlUR9qgxDsIgcal9dUI/story.html ugh.... there have been several rational explanations that could tighten up the numbers, in atleast a dozen threads now..... its an interesting stat, but hardly factual proof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Man, how much manufactured anger (and threads) can this same topic produce? Â The OP just saw this data? Silly man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Man, how much manufactured anger (and threads) can this same topic produce? Â The OP just saw this data? Silly man. It was freshly rehashed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 ugh.... there have been several rational explanations that could tighten up the numbers, in atleast a dozen threads now..... its an interesting stat, but hardly factual proof  I thought the best of those arguments was the low sack numbers argument.....which I debunked in another thread:   I think that the "Patriots don't get sacked much" devil's advocate argument for the reason that they have an extremely low fumble percentage is fair.....so I thought I would crunch some numbers and see what happens....  Below are Tom Brady's and Matt Cassel's numbers through their careers. I have decided to use the combined sack and rush numbers as those were the plays where the QB theoretically has to hold onto the ball.  Source: NFL.com player stats Cassel(http://www.nfl.com/p...562/careerstats) NFL.com player stats Brady(http://www.nfl.com/p...211/careerstats)  Matt Cassel fumble rates with Patriots(2007+2008): 124 plays 8 fumbles (1 in 15.5) 4 fumbles lost (1 in 31)  Matt Cassel fumble rates pre-2007 with Patriots and post Patriots(2009+) 305 plays 40 fumbles (1 in 7.6) 15 fumbles lost (1 in 20.3)   Tom Brady fumble rates 2007+ 413 plays 36 fumbles (1 in 11.5) 15 fumbles lost (1 in 27.5)  Tom Brady fumble rate pre-2007 421 plays 59 fumbles (1 in 7.1) 25 fumbles lost (1 in 16.9)   It looks like there is a clear reduction in the fumble rate for the Patriots QBs after the 2006 season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBillsWillRiseAgain Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 ugh.... there have been several rational explanations that could tighten up the numbers, in atleast a dozen threads now..... its an interesting stat, but hardly factual proof  Tighten up but still not put the Patriots in the average. It's not a court of law and we'll never get factual proof out of anything with any statistic football tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chilly Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 http://regressing.deadspin.com/why-those-statistics-about-the-patriots-fumbles-are-mos-1681805710 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Why....my GOD, how come this is the first we're hearing about this???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Why....my GOD, how come this is the first we're hearing about this???? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nL22e30bFic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalScotts Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 NO it's because Bill really stresses hang on to the football Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidkski Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Seriously? Â He was a hard-as* about hanging onto the ball before the rule change, too, yet the Patriots still fumbled about as frequently as most other teams back then. Â It was only after the league granted Brady his new rule change that the Pats fumbe numbers dropped- quite literally - off the charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleed Bills Blue Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 As bad as this seems in the abstract, how many close games might the Bills have lost to the Pats* because of a fumble or two? For instance, maybe if McKelvin had been using one of their balls we would have won that game when he fumbled. Sure, on balance, I know they've been the better team for awhile, but when I spend many thousands of dollars on season tickets over the years, I'd like to think I'm watching a fair contest. Instead, I'm furious because, really, cheating is stealing my hard-earned money from me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBillsWillRiseAgain Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Seriously? Â He was a hard-as* about hanging onto the ball before the rule change, too, yet the Patriots still fumbled about as frequently as most other teams back then. Â It was only after the league granted Brady his new rule change that the Pats fumbe numbers dropped- quite literally - off the charts. Â Bingo. The massive improvement coincides exactly with the time the rule changed which would allow the Patriots to doctor their footballs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
napmaster Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 This would explain some of Belicheck's first press conference. I couldn't understand why he focused on the ball conditions during practice - how he makes they balls so tough to handle and doesn't care how much the players complain. It seemed completely irrelevant to the deflated balls issue. Was he addressing this fumbling rate issue based on some of the NFL's investigation we are not yet aware of, and feedback from some people in the Pats organization they had already interviewed? It all seemed odd, but this would make some sense out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davspo Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, without a smoking gun the NFL will remain the Pats lap dog. Folks as Bills fans we are use to disappointment. Be assured that the NFL "investigation" will be a disappointment. The only one who looks good in all this is Richard Sherman. The guy had the guts to say what everyone knows but is afraid to say. He will likely be the only on penalized out of all this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 (edited) If a tree falls down in the forest does it make a sound if no one is there to hear the noise? Â The balls became under inflated by some means. The Pats have to prove without any reason of doubt that they didn't tamper with the balls and show the NFL repeated examples how it happened under normal circumstances. Edited January 28, 2015 by BillsFan-4-Ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark80 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2015/the-new-england-patriots-mysteriously-became-fumble-proof-in-2007 Great article, thanks. The great thing about numbers and statistics is that they never lie, unlike Tom and Bill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Great article, thanks. The great thing about numbers and statistics is that they never lie, unlike Tom and Bill. the crazy thing about stats, is that they often bend the truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 (edited) http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2015/the-new-england-patriots-mysteriously-became-fumble-proof-in-2007 Â Well I guess Peyton Manning cheats too...because 1. Peyton is the one who spear headed this rule change, other QBs including Aaron Rogers have already credited Manning, not Brady, with this change. 2. Manning teams fumble at a comparable rate to Brady led teams. Â Therefore, Manning also deflates footballs. Â And the most annoying thing about this study is that it doesn't break down the other 31 teams individually...so its comparing one teams rate with an average of the rest of the league which is stupid and skewed. If you take 32 individuals, then compare the best individual to the average of the other 31, there is going to be a big discreprency, especially if the the lower tier is significantly worse. Â This study does not show NE as an abnormally because we don't know if any other teams have reasonably similar fumble rates. If 3 teams have a similar fumble rate, then the conclusion that its just the Patriots and must be cheating can't be concluded unless you assume they all cheat. Furthermore, we already know that Peyton led teams fumble at a similar rate a the Pats, in fact the difference is barely noticeable. Edited January 28, 2015 by Alphadawg7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webtoe Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The 'smoking gun' in this analysis is the dramatic improvement in the rate of fumbles after 2007 to present compared to the league average. Prior to 2006, the Pats were right in line with it, afterward they were better by an unbelievable amount. What could possibly account for that improvement? Quite the coincidence.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark80 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 (edited) Â Well I guess Peyton Manning cheats too...because 1. Peyton is the one who spear headed this rule change, other QBs including Aaron Rogers have already credited Manning, not Brady, with this change. 2. Manning teams fumble at a comparable rate to Brady led teams. Â Therefore, Manning also deflates footballs. Â And the most annoying thing about this study is that it doesn't break down the other 31 teams individually...so its comparing one teams rate with an average of the rest of the league which is stupid and skewed. If you take 32 individuals, then compare the best individual to the average of the other 31, there is going to be a big discreprency, especially if the the lower tier is significantly worse. Â This study does not show NE as an abnormally because we don't know if any other teams have reasonably similar fumble rates. If 3 teams have a similar fumble rate, then the conclusion that its just the Patriots and must be cheating can't be concluded unless you assume they all cheat. Furthermore, we already know that Peyton led teams fumble at a similar rate a the Pats, in fact the difference is barely noticeable. Â The first graph shows all the teams. The Y axis represents the teams, "Frequency." Â Prior to the change, no team was over 56 touches per fumble, after the change no team is over 56 as well, except the Pats, who are at an astounding 74 (which includes all of Peyton's non Colt years). That's a severe outlier in stats terms. Edited January 28, 2015 by Mark80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 (edited) I saw another report that put together the similar data  its another smoking gun. Unfortunately it's absolutely not a smoking gun.  The ball boy is the only possible smoking gun.  This data while arguably indicative of a anomalous pattern, is circumstantial evidence.... It only proves they got better at ball security.  It's sort of like accusing OJ of mudering his wife to stop paying alimony, then trying to prove it by showing he no longer is paying alimony. Edited January 28, 2015 by over 20 years of fanhood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 (edited) when / how soon before the game do the Refs hand the balls to the team? Â Are the balls left under supervision while in the care of said ball attendant? Â Is there a Ref on the sideline monitoring the footballs? Â Toiletgate is still usable but I'm still leaning at "other" Edited January 28, 2015 by BillsFan-4-Ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Direhard Fan Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 sounds like a good class action lawsuit. Fans against NE and Brady. They have already justified this in there minds. Typical crimanals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan_34 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Just change the rule. No team should be allowed to supply the game balls. Let the league/refs handle that. Right before kick off check the PSI and throughout the game randomly sample game balls. What is the odds of 11/12 balls losing over 1 PSI in about 2 hours time simply going from 70 degrees to 20 degrees? I just dont think its possible. Simple physics says the warmer it is the faster air molecules move, this causes the molecules to hit the insides of the ball faster and more frequent thus increasing presssure. When it is cold the molecules will move slower and PSI will decrease some. I just cant see 1 PSI in 2 hours for 11 balls. Werent they all at the same psi too? Whats the odds stat men/women? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBillsWillRiseAgain Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 sounds like a good class action lawsuit. Fans against NE and Brady. They have already justified this in there minds. Typical crimanals. Â That online petition against the Pats is over 60,000 people now. If someone is pissed enough to start an online petition there's probably couple that are pissed/crazy enough to try to sue the Patriots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Just change the rule. No team should be allowed to supply the game balls. Let the league/refs handle that. Right before kick off check the PSI and throughout the game randomly sample game balls. What is the odds of 11/12 balls losing over 1 PSI in about 2 hours time simply going from 70 degrees to 20 degrees? I just dont think its possible. Simple physics says the warmer it is the faster air molecules move, this causes the molecules to hit the insides of the ball faster and more frequent thus increasing presssure. When it is cold the molecules will move slower and PSI will decrease some. I just cant see 1 PSI in 2 hours for 11 balls. Werent they all at the same psi too? Whats the odds stat men/women? I'll reiterate one of my comments. Use new balls and do not let either team scuff, soak or rub the balls before game time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan_34 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I'll reiterate one of my comments. Use new balls and do not let either team scuff, soak or rub the balls before game time^this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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