Would you, right now, trade EJ for Tannehill? Chapter 2

[FireChan]

It's not because of them, specifically. It would be mainly because of their supporting cast. Kind of like what Rex/Whaley are trying to do here in Buffalo. Reference the free agent acquisitions

We agreed that those guys win enough regular season games to keep their staffs from looking too hard for replacements. A lot of it is about them. Any of them as the Bills QB in 2014 brings us to the playoffs.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

A repeat of last year's, with a poll! http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/170205-would-you-right-now-trade-ej-for-tannehill-straight-up/

 

For me, it's a yes.

 

Try not to turn this into a full EJ topic. I want to get a baseline on the career's of two young QB's in the AFC East, not talk Matt Cassel.

 

 

where is the hell yes LOL option

[NewEra]

31 Ej homers and counting!!

[Deranged Rhino]

31 Ej homers and counting!!

 

Not all of us are EJ homers. Some of us just don't think Tanny is a long term answer at the position. Doesn't mean he's not an upgrade over EJ right now, he clearly is. It also doesn't mean they (and by they I mean me) think EJ will necessarily prove to be the answer. It's just more I don't want to tie up long term, big time money in Tanny when I don't believe he's going to win a Super Bowl in his career.

[GunnerBill]

Okay, I'll take Kaep out. Would you be okay with saying that Dalton/Smith/Tanny make the playoffs 30-40% of the time?

 

I would agree with that I think it is a fair estimate. I'd then add that they will win only around 15-20% of the play-off games they make.

Edited March 15, 2015 by GunnerBill

[JESSEFEFFER]

 

I voted no, but with more information...I get you said straight up, but why debate that, its not within the realm of possibility, so whats the point in my eyes other than try and further slam EJ. It would be too expensive to package EJ with high pick or picks to get Tannehill, so therefore I vote no as I don't know if Tannehill is worth that at this time. So these make believe scenarios are pointless.

 

I will never understand how so many people here made excuse after excuse for horrible QBs like JP, Trent, and even Fitz yet go out of their way to grossly over exaggerate EJs struggles. EJ has had a better first 14 games than many top QBs, past and present, yet people talk about here like he is in the Brohm, Tuel, Leaf, category. Its actually absurd.

 

The kid has talent, has 3 comeback wins in 14 games, a couple rookie of the week nods, and some decent games on his resume. He has only had a few really bad games, yet guys like Fitz, Trent, and JP had more hoffible games than good games yet they got years to prove they suck. People wanted to prove EJ sucks the day he stepped on the field

 

If he can stop playing overly careful and let loose, use his legs, and not hold back this kid could become a legit starter. But haters just want to OVER EXAGGERATE the hate to levels reserved for guys like Whitner despite the fact that the kid puts in the time to be great, is a great teammate, didn't pout when Orton got the nod, running up and down the sidelines cheering the offense when Orton (rarely) did something right, etc.

 

I just don't understand the mission to destroy the kid on this board. He may or may not become a good starter, but the potential is there and he's putting in the work...so let it go and let it play out on the field already and wish the kid luck.

 

I am with you AD7 on all these points. I think the part of your post that I bolded best explains the source of most of the animus toward EJ. One could legitimately vote for Tannehill on the basis of where he is in his career path and think he'd be better for this Bills team, this year but that's not me. Some think all you have to do is pick "Mr QB Right" and all can live happily ever after but that's not me. I believe in talent, hard work, character and patience. I really want to see how EJ looks in this offense with these coaches. He just might surprise us all.

I am with you AD7 on all these points. I think the part of your post that I bolded best explains the source of most of the animus toward EJ. One could legitimately vote for Tannehill on the basis of where he is in his career path and think he'd be better for this Bills team, this year but that's not me. Some think all you have to do is pick "Mr QB Right" and all can live happily ever after but that's not me. I believe in talent, hard work, character and patience. I really want to see how EJ looks in this offense with these coaches. He just might surprise us all.

Edited March 15, 2015 by JESSEFEFFER

[JESSEFEFFER]

I'll add this to this thread. I've been kicking around a concept for QBs that is analogous to MLB's quality start for pitchers (3 or fewer runs in 7 or more innings.) Using FO's/ESPN's tQBR (designed to be comprehensive within game context) and setting the arbitrary bar at 50 (their midpoint of a QB helping or hurting the cause) I came up with the following:

 

Ryan Tannehill has hit the QS threshold in 50% of his starts in every one of this three years in the league.

 

Locker and Bradford (favored by many this off season) are at 42% for their careers.

 

Joe Flacco (I most directly compare EJ to him in terms of what I think he can be) was 37.5% in his first year.

 

Kyle Orton was 4 of 12 in 2014 (my comment is Yikes!!!) Really Doug Marrone. This guy was giving us the best chance to win? Actually, he might have done EJ a favor by hitting the reset button on his career in terms letting him roll into 2015 with something of a chance to be "new and improved."

 

EJ is 8 of 14 for 58% of his starts.

 

I intend to do a more thorough job of this soon but his is what I think it can show vs. the aggregate tQBR for a season or career. Is the number a result of overall bad games that are pulled up by a few great games? This is Kyle Orton's 2014, especially due to the starts vs. the Jets.

 

Or is it a result of a majority of decent games but with a few bad/horrible games (usually weighted greater than good games) that have skewed a rating downward? This is generally true of EJ (TB, SD,Houston.)

 

So this is why I, along with AD7's reasoning, vote NO. This is not blind faith. It is a fact based rationale for wanting to see EJ in this offense, this year.

[Dorkington]

I'll add this to this thread. I've been kicking around a concept for QBs that is analogous to MLB's quality start for pitchers (3 or fewer runs in 7 or more innings.) Using FO's/ESPN's tQBR (designed to be comprehensive within game context) and setting the arbitrary bar at 50 (their midpoint of a QB helping or hurting the cause) I came up with the following:

 

Ryan Tannehill has hit the QS threshold in 50% of his starts in every one of this three years in the league.

 

Locker and Bradford (favored by many this off season) are at 42% for their careers.

 

Joe Flacco (I most directly compare EJ to him in terms of what I think he can be) was 37.5% in his first year.

 

Kyle Orton was 4 of 12 in 2014 (my comment is Yikes!!!) Really Doug Marrone. This guy was giving us the best chance to win? Actually, he might have done EJ a favor by hitting the reset button on his career in terms letting him roll into 2015 with something of a chance to be "new and improved."

 

EJ is 8 of 14 for 58% of his starts.

 

I intend to do a more thorough job of this soon but his is what I think it can show vs. the aggregate tQBR for a season or career. Is the number a result of overall bad games that are pulled up by a few great games? This is Kyle Orton's 2014, especially due to the starts vs. the Jets.

 

Or is it a result of a majority of decent games but with a few bad/horrible games (usually weighted greater than good games) that have skewed a rating downward? This is generally true of EJ (TB, SD,Houston.)

 

So this is why I, along with AD7's reasoning, vote NO. This is not blind faith. It is a fact based rationale for wanting to see EJ in this offense, this year.

This is an eye opening post. Didn't really think about it in terms of "quality starts".

 

I am with you AD7 on all these points. I think the part of your post that I bolded best explains the source of most of the animus toward EJ. One could legitimately vote for Tannehill on the basis of where he is in his career path and think he'd be better for this Bills team, this year but that's not me. Some think all you have to do is pick "Mr QB Right" and all can live happily ever after but that's not me. I believe in talent, hard work, character and patience. I really want to see how EJ looks in this offense with these coaches. He just might surprise us all.

 

Tannehill most likely would never have gotten three seasons to develop here, frankly.

[1billsfan]

31 Ej homers and counting!!

 

Way too many Tanny lovers.

[agardin]

I gotta give this debate to Biscuit hands down.

I m with you two

[FireChan]

 

I would agree with that I think it is a fair estimate. I'd then add that they will win only around 15-20% of the play-off games they make.

Right. Totally okay with that. The problem with the argument that a QB like Tanny isn't good enough falls flat when you look at those numbers. Once the playoffs start, by math, the average QB's that make the playoffs have an infinitely higher chance of winning the Super Bowl compared to an EJ or a Geno. And when I say infinite, I mean it.

Tannehill most likely would never have gotten three seasons to develop here, frankly.

Why not?

I'll add this to this thread. I've been kicking around a concept for QBs that is analogous to MLB's quality start for pitchers (3 or fewer runs in 7 or more innings.) Using FO's/ESPN's tQBR (designed to be comprehensive within game context) and setting the arbitrary bar at 50 (their midpoint of a QB helping or hurting the cause) I came up with the following:

 

Ryan Tannehill has hit the QS threshold in 50% of his starts in every one of this three years in the league.

 

Locker and Bradford (favored by many this off season) are at 42% for their careers.

 

Joe Flacco (I most directly compare EJ to him in terms of what I think he can be) was 37.5% in his first year.

 

Kyle Orton was 4 of 12 in 2014 (my comment is Yikes!!!) Really Doug Marrone. This guy was giving us the best chance to win? Actually, he might have done EJ a favor by hitting the reset button on his career in terms letting him roll into 2015 with something of a chance to be "new and improved."

 

EJ is 8 of 14 for 58% of his starts.

 

I intend to do a more thorough job of this soon but his is what I think it can show vs. the aggregate tQBR for a season or career. Is the number a result of overall bad games that are pulled up by a few great games? This is Kyle Orton's 2014, especially due to the starts vs. the Jets.

 

Or is it a result of a majority of decent games but with a few bad/horrible games (usually weighted greater than good games) that have skewed a rating downward? This is generally true of EJ (TB, SD,Houston.)

 

So this is why I, along with AD7's reasoning, vote NO. This is not blind faith. It is a fact based rationale for wanting to see EJ in this offense, this year.

How many did EJ have his second season vs. his first? Was there a noticeable downward trend?

[1billsfan]

Right. Totally okay with that. The problem with the argument that a QB like Tanny isn't good enough falls flat when you look at those numbers. Once the playoffs start, by math, the average QB's that make the playoffs have an infinitely higher chance of winning the Super Bowl compared to an EJ or a Geno. And when I say infinite, I mean it.

 

You're assuming that EJ and Geno wouldn't ever make the playoffs as the starting QB of their teams.

 

You just can't wait to make the final call on EJ and Geno who are only on their third season. Why are you so quick to judge them? Alex Smith took 4 whole years before he showed the ability to even become a borderline average NFL starting QB.

[cale]

According to Tweet:

 

https://twitter.com/FANtasyTandem/status/577106407004217345

 

According to Tim Graham, Dolphins have "moved on":

 

http://www.buffalorumblings.com/buffalo-bills-news/2015/3/14/8217057/charles-clay-buffalo-bills-miami-dolphins-nfl-free-agency-2015

[FireChan]

 

You're assuming that EJ and Geno wouldn't ever make the playoffs as the starting QB of their teams.

 

You just can't wait to make the final call on EJ and Geno who are only on their third season. Why are you so quick to judge them? Alex Smith took 4 whole years before he showed the ability to even become a borderline average NFL starting QB.

Because I'm asking if you'd trade one of them for Tanny.

 

This topic is a great vessel for discussion because it sets borders. Most QB topics end up with consensus being, "we don't know, we'll find out." Which is fine, if not a little ambiguous for my taste.

 

With this topic, the dilemma is clear. Do you take an unproven guy, or a proven average guy? With only a year difference, it's hard to say Tannehill can't improve too. It's risk analysis. Bird in the hand vs. two in the bush. How much do you have to believe in EJ to reject a trade like that?

 

Now, the arguments against it are also indicative of the general vibe here. Not a lot of guys tried to prove that EJ is a better QB than Tanny (indicative that Tanny is better), and I find that an interesting concession. The salary cap argument is an interesting one, as it does give the keep-EJ side more ammunition. If I had said, "all cap/salary being equal," I think the poll would've been even more one sided.

 

So you want to know why I'm trying to close the book on EJ? I'm not. At least, not, outside the purpose of this hypothetical. I just know the odds. And even though there's a risk that we trade for Tanny, and EJ turns into a top 10 guy in Miami, I'd take that risk any day of the week.

Edited March 15, 2015 by FireChan

[Doc]

$9M/year? Jeez.

[SWATeam]

Wow, that is big

[Ittakestime]

Did anyone actually click on the twitter link??

 

Get rid of this garbage.

[YoloinOhio]

That twitter account has 41 followers.

[marauderswr80]

I see these big contracts and it leads me to think they may be in the process of restructuring Mario!?

[cale]

Right. FWIW.

[Matt in KC]

I'm fine with that compensation, if it's the total with incentives: 4 Pro Bowls, 4 Super Bowl wins, playing >70% of our offensive snaps. . . .

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

$9M/year? Jeez.

following all the threads and capology $9 mil is par for the course

[Matt in KC]

And to be clear: I'm not really opposed to paying a lot, so long as it doesn't handcuff the team in the future. I have just never thought Clay was that valuable. Were you particularly worried about Clay when we played the Dolphins last year?

[SWATeam]

https://twitter.com/jimijamm/status/577110569595068416/photo/1

 

 

Other gems from this "source"

[Big Turk]

And to be clear: I'm not really opposed to paying a lot, so long as it doesn't handcuff the team in the future. I have just never thought Clay was that valuable. Were you particularly worried about Clay when we played the Dolphins last year?

Perhaps in Roman's system they are

[YoloinOhio]

I'll reiterate that I don't care how much he makes. I wouldn't be surprised if that was the number due to other leaks that it is "big" and the Bills seemed pretty confident they would get him.

[BuffaloBillsForever]

Just a brutal move by the FO for a mediocre TE if true.

Edited March 15, 2015 by BuffaloBillsForever

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

there are some twits on Clay from Tim

 

https://twitter.com/search?q=clay%20&src=typd

[Mark80]

Is it weird that one of my favorite things about Clay is that his number is #42? Love TEs with numbers in the 40's.

[nucci]

Salary cap is $143M...teams have to spend $125M...stop worry about money and contracts....just worry about the talent we are acquiring....ridiculous that everyone brings up cap space and money constantly.

[boyst]

hahahah people take this as a source.

[1billsfan]

Because I'm asking if you'd trade one of them for Tanny.

 

I don't like Tanny and I still don't know about EJ or Geno yet.

 

Head to head in their last game Geno had a 158 rating and 3 TDs vs Tanny who had a 87 rating and 1 TD. EJ beat Tanny in their head to head match up.

 

I wouldn't trade EJ or Geno for Tanny because I know that Tanny isn't the answer. Much better to see what I have with either of those two with the ability to easily move on if they can't reach the average level of play of Tanny. I'm looking for something better than Tanny, a guy who I think will never win you a Superbowl as your starting QB. Trading for Tanny is signing on for being in "no mans land". No thank you.

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

microwave society first to break

 

from fake twit accounts ???

[Nanker]

Salary cap is $143M...teams have to spend $125M...stop worry about money and contracts....just worry about the talent we are acquiring....ridiculous that everyone brings up cap space and money constantly.

Agreed. It's really the player's pool of money, and it's up to each team to parcel it out to whomever they want and can.

[YoloinOhio]

Salary cap is $143M...teams have to spend $125M...stop worry about money and contracts....just worry about the talent we are acquiring....ridiculous that everyone brings up cap space and money constantly.

thank you kind sir

[LEBills]

According to Tweet:

 

https://twitter.com/FANtasyTandem/status/577106407004217345

 

Haha he's close to clays Mom apparently

 

Sports Source ‏@FANtasyTandem 25m25 minutes ago

@BreakinDownFilm @FranksYanks23 Im close with his mother

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

you forgot to add a part two

 

(is the OP) Am I an Idiot (troll)

Yes or No

31 Ej homers and counting!!

80 % feel EJ can be the starter....

 

what has Tannehill done in Miami again?

[YoloinOhio]

 

 

According to Tweet:

 

https://twitter.com/FANtasyTandem/status/577106407004217345

 

Haha he's close to clays Mom apparently

Sports Source ‏@FANtasyTandem 25m25 minutes ago

@BreakinDownFilm @FranksYanks23 Im close with his mother

but how close is he to Luke Russert's mom?

[bonechiller]

But, But, But, The source says he is friends with Clay's MOM!!!

what a schmuck

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Just remember Miami is already paying him $7 million. So to get him away from Miami it better be more than $7 million. It's easy to guess what the Bills will offer. It's going to be between $8-$10 million per year.