FistingBot Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I am not sure that we should assume that he will go #1 next year. He may not have as great a season, or get injured, or other great players might show up (QB, DE, OL, RB) etc. In other words, we might not need to be first in the draft order to get Luck. Having said that, I'd be surprised if he dropped lower than #5. I have to say that his decision only heightens my respect for him. I am a college professor, and take education seriously. I am really pleased by the message this sends to young kids in America. ... but an economist might not be pleased with his decision to stay in school. If one assumes, for example, that a good quarterback on average plays until he is 35 (i.e. each player has a fixed amount of time that he will be athletically gifted enough to play in the league) then by not coming out he is shaving one year off of his total career. This, of course, negatively impacts his cumulative earnings (ignoring the myriad of other things that could impact earning potential). There really is no good economic reason for staying in school if you are likely to be the #1 overall pick. A player can finish his education whenever he retires or during the off-season (and, of course, many do). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbb Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 2.) When was the last time a "knee" ended a QBs career? Luck would have to break his neck or get his throwing arm amputated to drop in draft position. It didn't end it, but it seemed that Carson Palmer was 3rd only to Brady and Manning in 2005 (I think that was the year) and hasn't been the same since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malazan Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This just jacked up every mock draft in America. It's almost enough to make you think a mock draft prior to the season being over is a STUPID idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Austin_Bills_Fan Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 great news. Take the temptation off the table so Buddy can focus on finding a real pass rusher or RT. Totally agree.. Now we can focus on actual needs of the team and let Fitz lead the Bills to the playoffs next season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebug Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 :unsure: Is there an analogy in there somewhere....? Sorry Fez, I have no idea how that ending up replying to your post. It was meant for the Chris Farley comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agardin Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 It didn't end it, but it seemed that Carson Palmer was 3rd only to Brady and Manning in 2005 (I think that was the year) and hasn't been the same since. Dante won a co MVP award, blew out his knee and was never the same. But your point is well taken, there aren't many examples Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebug Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Tommy want wingie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Its just poor logic, is what it is. He can get an education the rest of his life after football or in the offseason. Besides, the entire point most people make when they say "Its so important to get a good education", is because it offers you the opportunity to get a better job to make more money. He had the opportunity to make the most money he ever will make, so to not take that is just downright illogical, especially considering he could go back to school at any point in time. Some people value education for reasons beyond the ability to earn more money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
karl malones other son Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 If he's as good as everyone says he is he will make his money eventually. Good for him...assuming he sticks to this. Still can change his mind. PTR While the chance of Luck declaring for the NFL Draft still exists, he won't. By deciding to return to college ball, Luck is not only increasing his opportunity for sustaining a career-ending injury, he is also passing on the LAST potential guaranteed $60 million contract. While Andrew Luck's "college try" spirit inspires the romantic side in all of us, it's an unreasonable risk and one that I struggle to understand. Betta' Have Mah Dohnuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbb Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Some people value education for reasons beyond the ability to earn more money. I believe Leinert's was to get laid, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdand12 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This is good and bad. I wonder if this is all manipulated to drive us crazy by the Powers that be. PTR mentioned to me once that there will always be seemingly franchise QBs. every draft season. We just cannot go 0-whatever next year. just because. So how could we get Luck the next year? I bet i am not the only person considering this. Much less other coaches and team FO's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roc Bronson Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 With all the writing on this board about Luck, I wouldn't be shock if a few of our fellow posters end up on top of a building or the tallest bridge they can find.. Sorry but some seem to worship this kid.. But good for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 While the chance of Luck declaring for the NFL Draft still exists, he won't. By deciding to return to college ball, Luck is not only increasing his opportunity for sustaining a career-ending injury, he is also passing on the LAST potential guaranteed $60 million contract. While Andrew Luck's "college try" spirit inspires the romantic side in all of us, it's an unreasonable risk and one that I struggle to understand. Betta' Have Mah Dohnuts There sure seem to be a lot of people who don't understand the concept of insurance. Luck will have a very large policy in place before he steps back on a field. Also, there is no gaurantee that 2011 draftees won't be subject to a new salary structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevestojan Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 There sure seem to be a lot of people who don't understand the concept of insurance. Luck will have a very large policy in place before he steps back on a field. Also, there is no gaurantee that 2011 draftees won't be subject to a new salary structure. I guess I don't understand insurance in this case then Will he get $20-$60MM if his ACL goes snap next year? I'm honestly asking since I don't know who in the world would insure him for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flmike Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I am not sure that we should assume that he will go #1 next year. He may not have as great a season, or get injured, or other great players might show up (QB, DE, OL, RB) etc. In other words, we might not need to be first in the draft order to get Luck. Having said that, I'd be surprised if he dropped lower than #5. I have to say that his decision only heightens my respect for him. I am a college professor, and take education seriously. I am really pleased by the message this sends to young kids in America. Hey I'm a college professor too, and I agree. In football terms, it's also smart. He was only finishing his sophomore year for goodness sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LancasterSteve Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 No biggie. Chances are that either Bowers or Fairley will fall to us, and if not, there's always Dareus. The Sporting News has us taking Anthony Castonzo T Boston College. Bowers #1 Fairley #2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Campy Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Gotta respect his decision. He understands the value of an education. But to walk away from the amount of money that he is going to walk away from and set your family up for life is admirable yet leaves me scratching my head a little bit. Nonetheless, kudos to Luck for sticking to his guns. His family is fairly well-off from what I've read. And he'll make his money, just not yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Dante won a co MVP award, blew out his knee and was never the same. But your point is well taken, there aren't many examples Actually, one could argue that it was Randy Moss being traded to the Raiders that led to Culpepper never being the same. Culpepper blew his knee out the first year without Moss and when he blew his knee out he had just 7 TD's (6 passing, 1 rushing) and 15 turnovers (12 INT's and 3 lost fumbles) and had a record of 2-4 going into the 7th game where he was knocked out in the first quarter. The year before with Moss he was Co-MVP with 39 TD's and 11 INT's...he also added 2 more TD's rushing that year. He looked terrible that year without Moss prior to his knee, so hard to say what "really" was the cause of the demise of Culpepper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bananathumb Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Wow, would I be pissed if I was a Carolina fan. Just a possibility but Luck has until Jan 15 to change his mind. Let's say Harbaugh went to Carolina or even Denver ... I admire Luck for being able to resist the temptation and pursue his educational goal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajzepp Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Some of you guys are like the people on Deal or No Deal who open too many damn suitcases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papazoid Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 if this was already said i apologize...... could you imagine if Buffalo had the #1 pick...we are whipped into a frenzy over Luck......and he announces he's not coming out ?.....OMG !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I guess I don't understand insurance in this case then Will he get $20-$60MM if his ACL goes snap next year? I'm honestly asking since I don't know who in the world would insure him for that? I doubt he would want to insure for $60MM given the low risk of career ending injury and the lack of need for that much money, but yes, lots of companies will insure him. He just has to pay the premiums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malazan Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 He's been saying all along that he wasn't coming out. The only people planning for it have been ESPN, SI, etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsintaiwan Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It's stupid for a few reasons. First of all, he can't do any better than #1, which is where he would be drafted this year. All he can do is the same or worse by staying in school. Second, we have no idea what is going to happen with the new CBA. He could end up earning a fraction of what he would have made this year by coming out. Third, as much as I agree with Tolstoy about education, there is no age limit on when you can complete it. Fourth, life happens. There is no guarantee that he will not be injured on or off the field, in some unforseen or unfortunate manner. And lastly, the simple fact is that when you have the opportunity to become a multi-millionaire, you TAKE IT!!! agree. particularly point 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Vader Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Wow. I must say I'm relieved. We will finally stop hearing the " we gotta draft Luck" broken record. Now lets focus on D... You are correct. However, now we will start to hear the "We gotta draft Newton" broken record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On the local Charlotte Fox affiliate weather station... "The Panthers only have one reason for excitement, 2010 season had only one highlight, the top draft pick and that might be screwed up; star QB Andrew Luck will not be entering the draft." Where are the fiddles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobobonators Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 ... but an economist might not be pleased with his decision to stay in school. If one assumes, for example, that a good quarterback on average plays until he is 35 (i.e. each player has a fixed amount of time that he will be athletically gifted enough to play in the league) then by not coming out he is shaving one year off of his total career. This, of course, negatively impacts his cumulative earnings (ignoring the myriad of other things that could impact earning potential). There really is no good economic reason for staying in school if you are likely to be the #1 overall pick. A player can finish his education whenever he retires or during the off-season (and, of course, many do). Of course you can finish your education whenever you want, but he's only at this specific age/time period in his life once. He's without a doubt having the time of his life at Stanford (he's practically king there), and he knows that ultimately he's going to get paid, and paid well regardless if he came out this year or next. Anything short of a career ending injury and he'll probably still go #1 next year (look at Bradford, sat out practically an entire year and look where he went). Maybe Luck just isn't mentally ready to make the next step and grow up. He has plenty of time to grow up and get paid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanInSouthBuffalo Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Mallett just declared. He isn't stupid. Unless he completely blows it between now and the draft he'll likely go a few slots higher with Luck out of the picture. http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/news?slug=ap-t25-arkansas-mallettdraft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FistingBot Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Hey I'm a college professor too, and I agree. In football terms, it's also smart. He was only finishing his sophomore year for goodness sake. Not true. He took a redshirt year so academically he is finishing his junior year. And to reiterate what many have pointed out, in economic terms this is a bad, bad move. He can finish his education at any time but has a finite, diminishing window of opportunity to play in the NFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simon Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I was hesitant to open my piehole earlier but I feel more comfortable with it now. While the Bills really do like Ryan Fitzpatrick, they absolutely love Andrew Luck and have for quite a while now. While no commitment was made as to how much they'd have been willing to spend, they were definitely going to make an effort to move into that #1 hole and draft him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4BillsintheBurgh Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I was hesitant to open my piehole earlier but I feel more comfortable with it now. While the Bills really do like Ryan Fitzpatrick, they absolutely love Andrew Luck and have for quite a while now. While no commitment was made as to how much they'd have been willing to spend, they were definitely going to make an effort to move into that #1 hole and draft him. Sources deep within? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simon Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Sources deep within? purdy deep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbb Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I was hesitant to open my piehole earlier but I feel more comfortable with it now. While the Bills really do like Ryan Fitzpatrick, they absolutely love Andrew Luck and have for quite a while now. While no commitment was made as to how much they'd have been willing to spend, they were definitely going to make an effort to move into that #1 hole and draft him. I really like what this front office is doing. That would have been the move to make! if this was already said i apologize...... could you imagine if Buffalo had the #1 pick...we are whipped into a frenzy over Luck......and he announces he's not coming out ?.....OMG !! I thought the same thing. I am sooooooo glad we didn't end up with the first pick. Not only would we be disappointed beyond belief, but we'd think it because he didn't want to come to Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2020 Our Year For Sure Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This is great news - when we go 2-14 next year - he's ours in 2012! +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bisonbrigade Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Maybe we should throw the 2011 season so we are guaranteed the #1 pick next year to draft him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simon Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Maybe we should throw the 2011 season so we are guaranteed the #1 pick next year to draft him. I wonder if that's why we're hanging on to George Edwards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1B4IDie Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The NFL may need to consider a lottery system for 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dayman Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 The NFL may need to consider a lottery system for 2012. They honestly should lottery the top 4 picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mousetrap08 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Thank God! I don't know why, but this makes me feel better about this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Booster4324 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yeah. But then there's that Mike Leach thing. And his gameday predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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