Search the Community

I think Beane gets under-rated here sometimes - his long-term lock-ups have pretty much all been spot-on, marred only by injury (Tre White). But Josh, Milano, Dawkins, Power and Hyde in their prime, Oliver (a surprise to me) -- all great moves that have provided a ton of value and kept us competitive year-after-year-after-year (plus Josh's greatness, which he gets fair credit for projecting). And making hard choices on beloved players were all good calls as well (Singletary, Edmunds, Diggs, Horrible Harry). I think he is in a small handful of the very best GMs.

Yeah, like I said, I feel that way too. They are just making the wrong decision at WR again, IMO. Same as they have the previous couple offseasons when they stupidly went all-in on Gabe Davis opposite their All Pro Diggs and did little else. Now they are expecting to replace Diggs and Davis with Coleman and Samuel(and a cast of cast-offs). That is an even greater leap of faith than those prior offseasons. It's not like the MLB position in that regard.......that was the first time they'd risked leaving themselves short at the position. This is them tripling down on not doing enough at WR. I was 100% behind their plan at MLB last year. Everybody they had used in place of Edmunds over the years had produced in limited roles. Pedestrian-Preston Brown lead the NFL in tackles under McDermott in 2017. There was AMPLE reason to trust in that decision. Not so much at WR. Skepticism should be the order of the day there.

Wr is getting similar discourse as Linebacker last season. I think Shakir has the chance to be top targeted Wr in the offense. In Allens career that player had alot of success. Brown, Beasley, Diggs all had career years with Allen. I think Shakir has a year similar to Browns 2019. 70 plus catches over 1,000 yards close to 10 TDs. Benard stepped in and on day 1 there wasn't much a drop off from Edmunds. I think Shakir has the same effect on the offense. Will have a shockingly small drop off from Diggs.

We have seen Shakir and what he can do already. He just needs to maintain the same consistency. Nobody thought Bernard was going to play anywhere near as well as he did when he was thrust into a starting role with the loss of Edmunds. He really looked lost the year before. I don't know who is going to surprise us like that this year. Would like to see a rookie rise up and take a starting position.

Gore was 44, not 54. At age 34 Ray Davis is definitely older than the average rookie. By comparison Tremaine Edmunds is going into his 7th season and he's only 21... but every athlete is different so in that regard, age is just a number.

True. He's already 3 years older than Tremaine Edmunds.

When you see it laid out like this you realize how much turn over there’s been in the last couple of seasons from the entrenched ‘household’ names we’d all become accustomed to during this era of Bills football. Now gone are: Singletary Morse Gabe Davis Diggs Edmunds Tre White Poyer Hyde I know it’s all part of the business but it has to be weird for guys like Josh, Milano and Ed Oliver to look around the locker room.

I never knew about the snap rate as accordance to comp picks until the NFL stiffed us from the 3rd Rd pk we should've gotten from losing Edmunds. In my opinion it's a horrible way to factor the comp picks. A player can get injuries and still be great the rest of the yr or the following year. The NFL is not acting on good faith by adding these guidelines to the comp formula. Teams do base there entire off-seasons on these supposed comp picks and it's stupid in my opinion to have anything else in the formula other then what said player received in his contract. It's not the Bills fault that Edmunds didn't reach the threshold for snaps because he was hurt we still lost a big piece of our defense by not resigning him.

Can't disagree with the McD + (slow-playing) rookies sentiments, but... ...there have been significant challenges to our widely accepted view of McD's conservative rookie development approach. These include: O'Cyrus Torrence, Tremaine Edmunds, Tre White, Spencer Brown, Christian Benford, Groot and Ed Oliver. Roughly 1 rookie per year gets starting traction from the jump, on average. And usually another rookie or two begins to contribute with increasing frequency/impact as the season progresses. Bunch more really solid examples there: with Allen and Milano leading that accelerated year-one progression charge. Sounds to my Bills ears like Coleman will have EVERY chance to see the field a LOT early on, and like Bishop will definitely rotate in and play Teams, and Carter will absolutely be the #3 or #4 DT in the rotation there. I think Solomon will actually get a bunch of pass rush reps by mid-year if game scripts allow for it. (I hope Shorter and/or Shavers take a legitimate step forward this season. We all should, of course, but I am actually optimistic one of them will earn an outside spot.)

Uh, yes? We extended him before his 5th year option officially kicked in. Maybe it gave us an extra two months to negotiate, but that's all. Like I said, it's a bargaining chip. The same effect can be had by using the franchise tag if you really need it. The 5th year option is most useful for players like Edmunds or Rousseau where you're not quite sure what you have and you want that one extra year of tape to see if they're worth extending. No, they did it for the same reason Minnesota swapped one pick with NY at #10 - they got scared we would trade back with someone else (likely aided by a bit of salesmanship from Beane) and they would lose out on getting their guy. This happens all the time. Again, look at the trade value chart. #31 to #32 is -6 points. #32 to #33 is -4 points. #33 to #34 is -5 points. Teams are telling you that the 5th year option is worth less than the drop off in total contract value.

Could be they changed it. I think including void years to lower a cap hit is fine, but in the context of a comp pick discussion i'd almost have to eliminate them. How do you calculate an APY including void years IE Leonard Floyd. Either you don't get the comp pick because you "cut him" and have dead cap on your books, or you get the comp pick, but his APY is calculated as a 1 year deal at the full value. I do know the bengals moving into the 3rd was because of bates making all-pro. There are a few other reasons that edmunds could've moved from 3rd to 4th beyond his playing time. They also moved the player 3rd round cut-off up i believe when factoring in the coaching hire 3rd round picks.

My understanding is that Edmunds's void year(s) were the reason why it dropped from a third to a fourth. Bean said as much: https://sports.yahoo.com/brandon-beane-bills-got-raw-105923422.html.

I'll believe it when I see it. Has OTC calculated the effect of the cap increase over last year, which was very substantial (a 13.6 percent increase)? Factoring that in, Davis's AAV would have been $11.4 million last year, which is 63.6 percent of what Edmunds got (and with one less year). Even factoring in a void year for Edmunds (btw, do we know if Davis has a void year in his Jax contract?) his cap-adjusted AAV is only 79 percent of what Edmunds's AAV is assuming a (phantom) five-year deal for Edmunds. Anyway, I ain't counting on it.

How are they getting a fourth for 3 years / $39 million when Edmunds's contract was vastly larger than that (four years / $72 million)? Plus Samuel is 3 years / $24 million. That'll offset Davis somewhat. I'm expecting a fifth at best for Davis.

https://overthecap.com/compensatory-formula - I agree that the NFL is right to not use a formula that uses cap number alone as that isn't the only thing tied to compensation. Void years allow you to pay a player a higher salary but lessen cap burden - but the average per year should remain the same if that's what you are measuring players against. The highest APY point value is the highest paid player, and the lowest APY point value is the lowest. Buffalo also lost their 3rd because jessie bates made 2nd team all-pro (honors category). This additional 20 points put him at 1878 points, which was 13 points higher than Edmunds. Bates was originally listed as a 4th round player that cancelled out with Orlando Brown. Orlando Browns 4th round value cannot cancel out a 3rd round player (unless they don't carry a net player loss), so Brown instead cancelled out Vonn Bell in the 6th. Looking at 2025, the only likely way we'd lose a pick is if hollins jumps into that cutoff (or settle falls behind it, or both). Hollins is ranked at 671 and is right next to the cutoff of 670, but he'd need to exceed his 45% snaps from 2023 in order to raise the 1281 point total. Other players in that range can do the same though - it isn't just tied to compensatory qualifying players. Settle falling out is probably less likely - he'd need to play fewer than 30% of snaps to lower his point total. Even at 0 snaps he's still 1284 which is above Hollins. Of all the free agents: Davis is a 4th, and 11 points clear of cutoff. He played 72% of snaps last year and barring major injury that seems likely again with ridley and zay jones departing and him and BTJ replacing. As long as buffalo remains a net loss, they will get a 4th for Davis. Leonard floyd is a 5th. Decreased snap counts likely don't bump him out. Curtis samuel would need to increase snaps considerably to jump into 5th round territory. If he jumps into 5, the 2nd comp pick becomes a 6 for Dane Jackson. Dane is very low on the 6th round chart, but he's a projected starter so i'd assume he sticks Dodson has a potential to jump into 6th if he starts. Johnson could maybe jump into 6. Edwards is barely in the cuttoff, as is settle. All this to say - i would say the 5th is at risk, but it would require either Samuel jumping into the 5th and moving the pick to the 6th. Or Hollins jumping in as a 4th CFA gained and we'd lose the lowest pick we had. I would say having 6 picks through round 4 is plenty anyway tbh.

Unless they do another change or Floyd or Davis miss an extended period of time next year - we'll get those picks. We didn't get the 3rd for two reasons. 1.) They on a whim decided to change the formula and incorporate things like void year money instead of just the strict cap number it was before - choosing to do it retroactively instead of going forward and 2.) Edmunds missed some time. Beane said they were talking to the league all year and they told him he was getting a 3rd, until they randomly decided to change the qualifications at the buzzer. I don't think they're going to do that again this year. It is wrong. Our picks are as follows: 1 2 (from Minnesota via Houston for Diggs) 2 3 4 (from Chicago for a 2024 5th) 4 4 (Compensation for Davis) 5 (Compensation for Floyd) 6 (from NYG for Basham and our 2025 7th) 6 Our 5th was traded to Houston as part of the Diggs trade.

The ONLY reason it was put in the CBA was to give teams a negotiating point. For a QB, “we only have to pay you ~20M on the 5th year option, so to make this work for both of us, you need to consider that in your ask.” With a guy like Groot who is worth maybe 10M a year, you just guaranteed him more than he’s worth at this time, essentially resetting your own negotiation floor if you wanted to extend him. I think this front office does a lot of things really well, but the egregious 5th year option usage proves they do not get the art of negotiation or cap management to the degree the fan boys here like to think they do. The only player the Bills should have used it on was Allen and they obviously re-upped him before it was a point. Using it and not extending him was a major miss on Edmunds, I would argue it was a floor set point for Oliver, who was over paid for his output and sorry, not sorry, is not the big impact player people here want to believe either. So twice it’s cost you more than it would have to extend a guy at the time and once it’s allowed him to price himself off the team, the other it allowed to increase their contract to more than it should have been.

This is all Tremaine Edmunds fault but at least he is still young and can grow

I see Coleman on an Edmunds projection. Mostly blah, some stats and gone after 4. Bishop and Carter will get second contracts

Was reading article in todays BN that listed stats from Beanes draft class. I found it kind of interesting as in the past Beane often took people based on potential upside. Edmunds and Knox are a couple of names that come to mind. Even Allen is true of. Seems like his picks are more what can he do for me right away which likely reflects the fact that years back they more were drafting for long term future, but that has changed. The average age of the first nine picks was 22.8 years (oldest of any Beane class) and the average games of college experience was 46.4 (most of any Beane class); the six-year averages entering this draft were 22.0 years and 39.8 games. UCF offensive tackle Tylan Grable’s 58 college games are the most of any Beane pick.

His first five seasons in the NFL 2016-2021 he was one of the best LBs in football. Zero doubt. It was much commented on at the time in the Tremaine Edmunds debates but at the time there was definitely an inbalance in LB talent that skewed towards the NFC. He had some injuries never quite seemed to recover some of his speed and his zest after that. I am surprised he isn't older to be honest. But this is his 4th team in 4 years for a reason. He isn't quite the guy he used to be.

Thanks for this. I'd only say that, having seen and heard Coleman for a week now, and seeing what the Bills saw, I seriously doubt that they think they'll have to wait for year three. I'm sure they expect him to move into serious playing time in year one, just like Rousseau, Kincaid, Cook, and others. And I agree with that assessment. He has special physical talent, and he's tuned in to what the position takes. I expect he'll be soaking up information from last week through Labor Day, and the Bills will get him the field in live action pretty quickly. (They started Edmunds from day 1, and he had more to learn than Coleman.)

I get the minority hiring comp picks or if a team truly wants a player back, but it seems weird that if a team actively lets a player go, why should they get a comp pick. Edmunds for example, it really doesn’t seem like we had any intention of re-signing him. Then we have a SB team getting the most comp picks, so we can’t say they are given out for parity.

This is the sneakiest Tre Edmunds thread I've seen here. Kudos.

I certainly hope that Allen was not involved in this pick. That is not his job. If the Bills picked Coleman because Allen wanted him then Beane definitely needs to be fired. My guess is that the involvement by Allen was prefunctory, sort of like King Charles officially has to approve all legislation before it becomes law. Coleman fits the high ceiling low floor profile of most early round Beane picks. Except for the 40 time, he is a freakish athlete whose college stats are not super impressive. Examples include Allen, Edmunds, Brown, Knox, Elam, and Rousseau. They are betting on that can teach him to separate in the pros. Hopefully they are right.