If we beat the Bengals, we’re winning the AFC

[No_Matter_What]

I know this is kind of a “hear me out” or LAM post, and I know that objectively we only have about a 4% chance right now. I also admit I’m a bit of a homer, but I still think this is rational enough.

 

I think the Bengals are the toughest game left on the schedule. If we win that one, we have a good chance to win out. I know most of you think this team is flawed and that McD is a bad coach, but we actually have a good regular-season track record with him, and we’re traditionally great in December. Oh, and we are NOT losing twice to the Pats* this year.

 

And if we do win out, only the following things need to happen for us to get the 1-seed:

 

Patriots lose one more divisional game (@ Jets, vs. Dolphins) or both of their other games (vs. Giants, @ Ravens). This is not impossible at all. I know they’re good, but nobody wins every game. I’d bet they drop one of those divisional matchups.

 

Broncos lose two more divisional games — @ Raiders, vs. Packers, vs. Jaguars, @ Chiefs, vs. Chargers. It is pretty likely this will happen. They’re winning too many close games, and that’s a tough schedule.

 

Colts, Chargers, Jaguars each lose one game. That’s basically guaranteed.

 

So in my mind, we really only need two things: beat the Bengals, and then hope either the Dolphins or Jets can pull off a divisional win.

 

If it fails, then I’m back to my original expectation: we’ll be playing a wild card game @ Ravens.

 

Edit: As @ColoradoBills pointed out, Broncos need to lose 2 divisional games. Which makes it more complicated than I thought. Still pretty realistic.

Edited 46 minutes ago by No_Matter_What
Changed wording related to Broncos

[ProcessTruster]

sure, sounds good to me.  the league has done a good job of loading the backend of the schedule with intra division / conference games. 

 

makes it all so interesting, esp this year where there is no runaway #1 seed at all

 

Get healthy, Bills.  LIght up the Bengals D and go from there.  

[boyst]

We could win out, the Patriots could lose one to us, and the colds could lose just one more putting us all at 13 and 4. We would be the five seed. This is the most likely happenstance in my opinion. 

[atlbillsfan1975]

If the Bills finish 13-4, for me it doesn’t matter what the rest of the league does, we are winning it all.

[Process]

We win the tiebreaker if Bills and Broncos finish 13-4? Do we know that?

[ColoradoBills]

2 minutes ago, Process said:

We win the tiebreaker if Bills and Broncos finish 13-4? Do we know that?

 

Only IF the Bronco losses are both AFC teams.

[Einstein]

Ya know what? I’m on board! Let’s do it.

[RobbRiddick]

Positivity! That's just what I needed after the weeks of misery I've been inflicting upon myself. A few more posts like this and I'll be ready to wash the feces off my bedroom walls and leave the house for the first time since October

[finn]

I'm starting to get excited about the Bills defense. Seems like McDermott has decided to assume the coordinator role, and the results are impressive: better tackling, more aggressive attitude, a renewed determination to force turnovers. Or at least what I think I'm seeing and hope will continue. They've struggled with tackling against the run, and if they really have fixed that, as it appears, they have a chance to be excellent, barring injuries. Shaq for Bernard is a key change, as is Poyer for Rapp. Sanders at end might be something. Still concerned about the pass rush, so it's not all daisies, but I do think this unit could do its part and more. Maybe, just maybe, soft zones and bend don't break have been shelved.

 

Offense... I keep thinking of those games--New England, Houston, Atlanta--where the D gave them a chance and they didn't take it. I've made Brady my whipping boy and stand by that take, but I think they can do better despite his input. Allen could audible to different plays, Cooks could end up being a late-model Diggs, Kincaid might not be injured the second he returns. Heck, Brady might even stumble across "play action" while browsing online some night and boldly put it in his game plan. Admittedly, it would mean the end of his quest for the NFL record for runs on first down, but he might be man enough to put his ego aside for the good of the team. A fan can only hope. 

EDIT: I meant say all this by way of agreeing they have a chance to go all the way to the AFCCG.

Edited 1 hour ago by finn

[Paup 1995MVP]

43 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

I know this is kind of a “hear me out” or LAM post, and I know that objectively we only have about a 4% chance right now. I also admit I’m a bit of a homer, but I still think this is rational enough.

 

I think the Bengals are the toughest game left on the schedule. If we win that one, we have a good chance to win out. I know most of you think this team is flawed and that McD is a bad coach, but we actually have a good regular-season track record with him, and we’re traditionally great in December. Oh, and we are NOT losing twice to the Pats* this year.

 

And if we do win out, only the following things need to happen for us to get the 1-seed:

 

Patriots lose one more divisional game (@ Jets, vs. Dolphins) or both of their other games (vs. Giants, @ Ravens). This is not impossible at all. I know they’re good, but nobody wins every game. I’d bet they drop one of those divisional matchups.

 

Broncos lose two more games — @ Raiders, vs. Packers, vs. Jaguars, @ Chiefs, vs. Chargers. It is pretty likely this will happen. They’re winning too many close games, and that’s a tough schedule.

 

Colts, Chargers, Jaguars each lose one game. That’s basically guaranteed.

 

So in my mind, we really only need two things: beat the Bengals, and then hope either the Dolphins or Jets can pull off a divisional win.

 

If it fails, then I’m back to my original expectation: we’ll be playing a wild card game @ Ravens.

You must have too much time on your hands coming up with all that.  I got a headache just reading it.  

 

That being said, regardless of if we get the #1 seed (which isn't going to happen) or the 7th seed.  If we play well over the next 5 games, we will have as good a shot as any team to win the AFC, and get to the Super Bowl.  Home field is overrated.  We lost to Cinci in 2022 and the Chiefs in 2023 on our home field in the playoffs.  (I think there is more pressure on the home team in the playoffs.)  If Josh and the rest of the team get their confidence at peak level, I like our chances at anybody's stadium.

 

Should be fun to watch it play out after curb stomping the mighty (LOL) Steelers.  

[TheFunPolice]

45 minutes ago, ProcessTruster said:

sure, sounds good to me.  the league has done a good job of loading the backend of the schedule with intra division / conference games. 

 

makes it all so interesting, esp this year where there is no runaway #1 seed at all

 

Get healthy, Bills.  LIght up the Bengals D and go from there.  

 

This is what the league wanted and it's really the first year it has worked out so well. 

 

December is going to be like Wild Card weekend every week, starting this Thursday night with Cowboys/Lions. Every weekend is going to be packed with games between teams with great records and all sorts of playoff implications. 

 

Almost anything could still happen. Those looking at the AFC and thinking it's over for teams like KC should remember that all those 3-4 loss teams are going to play each other, sometimes twice, still. 

 

So 9-3 or 8-4 teams will become 9-5 or 8-6 teams. Then the 7 seed becomes a race. 

Edited 1 hour ago by TheFunPolice

[NeverOutNick]

1 hour ago, No_Matter_What said:

I know this is kind of a “hear me out” or LAM post, and I know that objectively we only have about a 4% chance right now. I also admit I’m a bit of a homer, but I still think this is rational enough.

 

I think the Bengals are the toughest game left on the schedule. If we win that one, we have a good chance to win out. I know most of you think this team is flawed and that McD is a bad coach, but we actually have a good regular-season track record with him, and we’re traditionally great in December. Oh, and we are NOT losing twice to the Pats* this year.

 

And if we do win out, only the following things need to happen for us to get the 1-seed:

 

Patriots lose one more divisional game (@ Jets, vs. Dolphins) or both of their other games (vs. Giants, @ Ravens). This is not impossible at all. I know they’re good, but nobody wins every game. I’d bet they drop one of those divisional matchups.

 

Broncos lose two more games — @ Raiders, vs. Packers, vs. Jaguars, @ Chiefs, vs. Chargers. It is pretty likely this will happen. They’re winning too many close games, and that’s a tough schedule.

 

Colts, Chargers, Jaguars each lose one game. That’s basically guaranteed.

 

So in my mind, we really only need two things: beat the Bengals, and then hope either the Dolphins or Jets can pull off a divisional win.

 

If it fails, then I’m back to my original expectation: we’ll be playing a wild card game @ Ravens.

I like the optimism, but I’m betting we lose at least one more game.

[fergie's ire]

How will you feel if Patriots lose tonight?  Seems far fetched...but who would've thought the Broncos Commanders game would go to overtime.  Also heard something about Pats having O-line injuries.  Also, I think the chances of winning the division are better than they were this time of year 2 years ago.

[May Day 10]

Id say if they beat the Bengals and the Pats, with no more bad health news (which would mean health is improving) I will definitely start to really picture them running through the AFC.  

 

 

Right now, I just see a 1-dimensional team who probably cant have everything go their way 3+ weeks in a row.  They have to be able to run the ball and chew clock to win.  If a team stops the run and/or starts a track meet, the Bills are in a lot of trouble.   

 

 

Beat the Bengals and Pats, that is 3 games in a row, including 1 against the "top" team in the conference off their bye week on the road.  I could then picture them winning enough playoff games against the current AFC field

[Scott7975]

A lot of reshuffling is about to happen over these last weeks. I don't mind peoples optimism. Nor do I mind their pessimism. Good to have some balance IMO. Personally, I am not going to get too high over beating the Steelers. They aren't that good on either side of the ball. Bengals are at least good on one side. Pats arent great on either side but they are good on both. Browns are good on one side. Eagles, I dunno what the hell they are TBH. Then there is the Jets; a garbage team that would probably hope to lose for a better draft pick.

 

I think the one seed is out of reach. I also think the division is close to out of reach. The way the games this week went, has me at least confident we get into the playoffs now though. Anything can happen in there.

[eball]

1 hour ago, boyst said:

and the colds could lose just one more

 

your hypothesis sounds a bit buggy to me...

[No_Matter_What]

28 minutes ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

You must have too much time on your hands coming up with all that.  I got a headache just reading it.  

 

That being said, regardless of if we get the #1 seed (which isn't going to happen) or the 7th seed.  If we play well over the next 5 games, we will have as good a shot as any team to win the AFC, and get to the Super Bowl.  Home field is overrated.  We lost to Cinci in 2022 and the Chiefs in 2023 on our home field in the playoffs.  (I think there is more pressure on the home team in the playoffs.)  If Josh and the rest of the team get their confidence at peak level, I like our chances at anybody's stadium.

 

Should be fun to watch it play out after curb stomping the mighty (LOL) Steelers.  

I agree with you, if we win out, we are serious contender no matter what. But being seed one is not about having HFA, it's about having to play one less game and having more time to get healthy. Seed 1 is super important.

 

Not likely now but I remain optimist.

[BillsPride12]

I think the AFC is a mess and I'll hope for the best but our lack of a passing game and issues with our run Defense makes me much less optimistic than most on here.

 

Glad we beat Pittsburgh but that game didn't do anything to change my perceptions of the Bills this year 

[Gregg]

Let's Go Giants. It starts tonight if they are going to make a run at the #1 seed. I doubt they get the #1 seed or division, but a Giants win goes a long way towards improving the Bills odds of winning the division. Worry about Cincinnati next Sunday. We have a huge game tonight that concerns the Bills.

Edited 38 minutes ago by Gregg

[Dillenger4]

2 minutes ago, Gregg said:

Let's Go Giants. It starts tonight if they are going to make a run at the #1 seed. I doubt they get the #1 seed or division, but a Giants win goes a long way towards improving the Bills odds of winning the division. Worry about Cincinnati next Sunday. We have a huge game tonight that concerns the Bills.

Right on man! I'm with you. Go Giants and Go Jax Dart! I think the Giants D front will have success getting to Maye or at least disrupting him. Giants win. Then we beat Cincy and now we will be one game out heading into Foxboro. The Division is ours boys.