A Few Thoughts about the Bucs Game - Community Edition

[No_Matter_What]

@Virgil Re snap counts.

 

We had 70 total defensive snaps.

 

Hairston 36 / White 34

Poyer 58 / Hancock 15

 

So CB2 was 50/50 job and there was actually less Hancock than recent games.

[corta765]

48 minutes ago, Rich Stadium Original said:

As far as the run defense...think it always goes to the defensive tackles.  If you look at the history of the best run stuffing LBs in the history of the Bills and the NFL, they probably had a dominant DT in front of them.  Even if the Tackles weren't making the play themselves, they were occupying a double team that meant less pressure on the linebackers behind them.

 

Fridge Perry - Mike Singletary

Siragusa/Sam Adams - Ray Lewis

 

Bills just don't have THAT guy at the position since Kyle William

Timing in sports is sometimes a b*tch. Kyle Williams would've been so good with this group and heck even Jerry Hughes (peak  with his drive/personality would've added some needed juice they never have had on the d-line. I think they hoped Edmunds would've become a true blue blood LB whereas he is just really good. It figures Oliver has seemingly come into his own this year only to get hurt.

[Big Turk]

I know this is crazy saying it after the Bills scored 44 points but I felt like they left a lot of easy plays out there and could have easily put up 60 on the Bucs.  

 

On the long throw to Hardman, Shakir is running wide open on a deep crosser 25 yards downfield with nobody anywhere near him and he might have taken it to the house...

 

 

on another play where Samuel was wide open and turned the wrong way at first or it was an easy 40+ yard TD...

 

they had players running wide open all day long it seemed like and Allen missed quite a few of them that he doesn't usually miss (the airmail to a wide open Shakir out of bounds along the sideline) that I believe happened before the 2nd INT on 4th down, etc...

Edited 18 hours ago by Big Turk

[billsfan714]

Thank god for the Bengals or we would have the worst rushing defense in the league.  It was the same old, same old except we made Sean Tucker look like Gibbs.  It wasnt a good runningback this time.  It was a guy who probably isnt rostered in 14 team fantasy leagues.  Look at the teams in the bottom 8 in rush defense, none of them will go to the superbowl, including us.  As happy as I was seeing an improved passing attack, it was more than disappointing watching that rush defense, again.  Its atrocious, plain and simple.

[corta765]

@Virgil

 

3. Shakir

 

So I agree with you to an extent, but I actually think it is deeper with Shakir and his productivity being down. This last game it was these three factors:

 

1. Injury, they absolutely used him as a decoy

2. Josh looking for bigger plays and not looking low as much

3. Teams are defending him differently now.

 

Take a look at Shakir's numbers from mid 2023 right before Brady on his production skyrocketed. Brady absolutely found some cheat code stuff with the screens and short yardage which he blossomed under. Last year he was brilliant in the slot and game in game out he was dynamite.

 

This year though teams are doubling him and cheating down more so it has been far more boom or bust. Luckily he is so good he is more boom then bust, but if you combine his longest catch yardage in each game together literally half his yardage this year has been on those plays (227 yards). By comparison last year he had 353 yards on his longest each game out of his 821 yards receiving (factor in last game vs NE he didn't play). Still a sizable amount by any means but he was a bit more diversified. Additionally as others have pointed out Brady has not been using him across the middle the same / Josh has stop throwing to him nearly as much there.

 

Overall he is still on a trajectory for a similar season to last year, but his usage has been different by comparison and Buffalo has struggled a bit in how teams have defended him IMO which is part of why the passing game has been stifled.

 

I truly believe if they can get some better outside WRs in next year you could see him go off for like 1100 yards 80 recs 10 TDs.

[billsfan_34]

5 hours ago, Freddie's Dead said:

3 - Shavers.  Keon's benching led directly to the coming out party for Shavers.  I'm fine with Keon riding the pines until a WR injury forces him back into the lineup.  Tyrell "Earnie" Shavers is here to stay, and he just wrestled the #1 spot from Keon's cold, dead hand.  

Keon was our number 1? Good lawd thats bad 😂

[BCAS Baritone]

1 hour ago, billsfan_34 said:

Keon was our number 1? Good lawd thats bad 😂

At least in terms of snaps he definitely has been.  Total snaps this year (including week 11, when Keon didn't play)

425 - Keon Coleman

392 - Khalil Shakir

223 - Tyrell Shavers

201 - Joshua Palmer

159 - Elijah Moore

151 - Curtis Samuel

 

[BRH]

5 hours ago, Big Turk said:

I know this is crazy saying it after the Bills scored 44 points but I felt like they left a lot of easy plays out there and could have easily put up 60 on the Bucs.  

 

On the long throw to Hardman, Shakir is running wide open on a deep crosser 25 yards downfield with nobody anywhere near him and he might have taken it to the house...

 

 

 

I 100% believe that throw to Hardman was happening no matter what, just to send a message early on.

 

It would have been a completion to Shakir, and maybe he breaks it, but the safety and CB would have let Hardman go the second they saw the ball going to Shakir.  Big gain for sure, but at that point in the game I was perfectly fine with the lower-percentage bomb just for the message it sent.

[BobbyC81]

6 hours ago, Allen2Moulds said:

As always, great writeup.  I really appreciate your thoughts on the game, as you hit on all the key things.

 

On the coaching thing, I couldn't help but think to myself, who is calling this defense?   I know they showed McD with a playsheet, but Bobby is still in the booth, and I'm thinking that at the moment, both are involved.  I would love to see Bobby on the sideline and erase all doubt.  To me, the defensive calls felt a lot more like the 1st half against Atlanta.  Specifically remember a 3rd and 12, where we chose to sit back and play soft coverage, and allow the conversion.  It was a very vanilla look, no disguise, no pressure.  I thought to myself, was that McD?   McD is typically more aggressive in those situations.

I don't think we'll ever truly know.  They'll likely continue to say that it's a collaborate effort between the 2.

 

As for the run D, it always starts with the D-line, but Bernard playing with a bad wheel, and both Milano, and Poyer not having any wheels at this point, all contributes.  I was really surprised that Shaq Thompson was a full go at practice and was then inactive.  I'm wondering if that has to do with the short turnaround, and Bernard already being banged up. Maybe McD sits Bernard this week, and gives him a full 2 weeks to rest that ankle.

 

I would love to see a lot more of Shaq and Dorian.  If Bernard could get fully Healthy, Ideally, I would like to see Shaq and Bernard, assuming Shaq is able to play Milano's WLB role. 

I was glad to see Williams in some as a 3rd LB on first down, not that it helped the rushing total given up.

 

 I wish they would just use Bosa as a pass rushing specialist.  He frequently fails to hold the edge and they give up big chunks on runs.   Isn’t Epenesa better against the run?

[JGMcD2]

7 hours ago, Wraith said:

You're analysis on the play from Point #1 is not accurate. If anything, Allen locked in on Knox too early and/or for too long. As J.J. Watt mentioned during the game, the Tampa LB gets lost in coverage immediately, which Josh recognizes, but due to the nature of Knox's route and the cross-traffic, Allen has to wait several beats before pulling the trigger. Josh throws the ball with two defenders crossing in front of Knox but their momentum carries them out of the throwing lane. Unfortunately, the Tampa LB recovers and is able to cover a ton of ground to break up the pass.

 

 

I thought this had a chance to go to the house if he had just checked it down to Ty. At the very least it was a 10-15 yard gain. 

[Mike in Horseheads]

In particular order, Congrats on the kiddo's big win!

[HappyDays]

14 hours ago, Wraith said:

You're analysis on the play from Point #1 is not accurate. If anything, Allen locked in on Knox too early and/or for too long. As J.J. Watt mentioned during the game, the Tampa LB gets lost in coverage immediately, which Josh recognizes, but due to the nature of Knox's route and the cross-traffic, Allen has to wait several beats before pulling the trigger. Josh throws the ball with two defenders crossing in front of Knox but their momentum carries them out of the throwing lane. Unfortunately, the Tampa LB recovers and is able to cover a ton of ground to break up the pass.

 

 

 

I didn't have any problem with this read from Allen. It's 4th down and the 1st read appears like it will be open, you take it every time. Palmer getting knocked down and Latu getting slowed up disrupted the timing because Allen is waiting for the short crossers to pass so he can throw the ball.

 

I'd like to see Knox show some awareness here... He's just standing watching the ball come to him and somehow doesn't realize a defender is on his way to the ball. Step up and sn*tch that thing out of the air.

 

Edited 6 hours ago by HappyDays

[GunnerBill]

18 hours ago, H2o said:

Looked like he was calling the defense to me. He's had the play sheet in hand and talking into the mic in between every snap with the sheet guarding his mouth. 

 

McDermott is calling the defense. 

4 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I didn't have any problem with this read from Allen. It's 4th down and the 1st read appears like it will be open, you take it every time. Palmer getting knocked down and Latu getting slowed up disrupted the timing because Allen is waiting for the short crossers to pass so he can throw the ball.

 

I'd like to see Knox show some awareness here... He's just standing watching the ball come to him and somehow doesn't realize a defender is on his way to the ball. Step up and sn*tch that thing out of the air.

 

 

The problem isn't the read. Or Knox. Josh is just late on the throw. I think a lot of his issues in recent weeks - including the poorer throws in this game - have been due to timing. If that is thrown half a second sooner it is a completion. 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

18 hours ago, Virgil said:

5 - Run defense -

Like anything in football, it is never a single factor.  I’ve worked through the first half, so I can only comment on the run defense thus far. Considering they gave up 120+ plus on the ground through two quarters, it is a significant piece to the defensive puzzle. 
 

You would be right at times putting it on the line backers. Other times they made phenominal plays. It’s a mixed bag. From Ogunjobi getting completely washed by a double, to Poyer missing a tackle in the box, there are countless examples where it was a 1/11th failure. It puts a ton of pressure on everyone to do their job. 1 blemish in the armor is all it takes.

 

That said, I think the biggest issue they had at LB in this game is the misdirection Tampa used. Many times the perception is that we struggle and get bullied in the run game, but actually they held up quite well when the ground game was deliberate and immediate. Rather, there were a handful of times LBs and DEs got caught up with some window dressing, watching the flow of backs, reacting to motions, too aggressive on the mesh point, etc. Bakers running hurt them a bit, as did the long TD run.

 

Below you will see two clips. This is Tampa running counter, the exact concept in two different variations. You’ll notice the first is with Epinessa/Williams handling the pullers and the second with Bosa/Johnson. 
 

It is impossible to know what they are trying to do schematically as a defense but my best guess here based on what I’ve seen is they’re trying to spill this play to the force player and boundary, working inside out allowing for guys to run to the football. 
 

In this first clip, you will see Epinessa use a wrong arm to try and sit in the hole. As the pullers work to reach Epinessa, Williams is there maintaining outside leverage. It is clear he is the force player here keeping them from getting the edge. He plays it very well stringing this out without giving up ground while the troops rally to the ball. 

 

However in this clip, you will see how the window dressing I referenced impacts the result of the play. The motion by the WR strongly influence Taron Johnson here. Between him and Bosa, one of these guys should be the force player on the edge and the other in the C gap. Based on the previous clip, I’d think Johnson is supposed to be the force here but the motion pulls him far to inside. Bosa wrong arms the puller again, bouncing the play to the boundary but with no force player they get the edge and it’s off to the races. It is impossible to know if there was a change in assignment here, and Bosa actually should have been maintaining leverage as the force. All we can do is guess. Based on the first clip and how Bosa plays the TE, I think the motion paired with what appears man coverage lead to a lack in gap integrity for Taron. Without that motion, you’d likely get a different result. 
 

 

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

19 hours ago, Freddie's Dead said:

3 - Shavers.  Keon's benching led directly to the coming out party for Shavers.  I'm fine with Keon riding the pines until a WR injury forces him back into the lineup.  Tyrell "Earnie" Shavers is here to stay, and he just wrestled the #1 spot from Keon's cold, dead hand.  

 

I'd use a Tortoise vs Hare reference to Shavers and Coleman except that Coleman is also the slow one in this scenario.

[davefan66]

Rewatched yesterday knowing they win and was able to see a few things I missed.

 

Poyer had a good game.  Closed coverage well, got to the ball quickly (even stopping a first down).  Got beat badly on the TD run up the right, not sure many safeties would have recovered on that.

 

Hardman.  Having him go long, even incomplete helped open the field for the offense for the game. I’m all for taking shots just to give the offense more room around the LOS.

 

Coleman was addition by subtraction. Shavers had a great game with tons of effort.

 

Gabe. Gave Josh a safety valve on a few plays. Seemed in sync with Josh much more than when he played here last.

 

3rd and long. They gave up a first down on the left side 12-15 yards deep too many times yesterday and this season.  Not sure if they are in zone when they do this but there is a consistent gap in coverage the receiver finds and sits in about 15 yards deep.  Seems too easy for the offense to get long first downs.  This was too close a game to be giving up easy firsts like this.

 

Josh. Nothing can be said but let him be Josh. Yeah, you get not so great goal line interceptions, but you also get a beast who will take the game over and will it to a win.

[GunnerBill]

44 minutes ago, davefan66 said:

Rewatched yesterday knowing they win and was able to see a few things I missed.

 

Poyer had a good game.  Closed coverage well, got to the ball quickly (even stopping a first down).  Got beat badly on the TD run up the right, not sure many safeties would have recovered on that.

 

Hardman.  Having him go long, even incomplete helped open the field for the offense for the game. I’m all for taking shots just to give the offense more room around the LOS.

 

Coleman was addition by subtraction. Shavers had a great game with tons of effort.

 

Gabe. Gave Josh a safety valve on a few plays. Seemed in sync with Josh much more than when he played here last.

 

3rd and long. They gave up a first down on the left side 12-15 yards deep too many times yesterday and this season.  Not sure if they are in zone when they do this but there is a consistent gap in coverage the receiver finds and sits in about 15 yards deep.  Seems too easy for the offense to get long first downs.  This was too close a game to be giving up easy firsts like this.

 

Josh. Nothing can be said but let him be Josh. Yeah, you get not so great goal line interceptions, but you also get a beast who will take the game over and will it to a win.

 

And the touchdown run isn't Poyer's responsibility. Obviously ultimately you want your safety capable of saving a touchdown there and making Tampa get it in from the 10 or something but the failure was on the 2nd level (think Milano) who misplayed his assignment.

[Livinginthepast]

18 hours ago, H2o said:

Looked like he was calling the defense to me. He's had the play sheet in hand and talking into the mic in between every snap with the sheet guarding his mouth. 

This is the bizarre thing about McD, he takes over the defensive playcalling when things get bad for his DCs, sometimes it works and sometimes its its takes a while but eventually works then other times its embarrassing. This seems to happen with regularity so what is the point of Babich exactly? If he is so incapable that helicopter dad McD has to take over for him then why is he the DC?. Maybe we should get a seasoned proven DC in here and revamp this defense? Someone better than Babich and McD?

 

 

[Coach Tuesday]

Some of my thoughts:

 

This was a game where we really missed Ed Oliver.  There was almost no disruption up the middle and it would’ve helped on some of those long third down conversions.

 

The Bills were helped by Bowles doing Bowles things - the bad challenges and poor clock management Jets fans know all too well, plus not going for it on that 4th and 2 (come on we were all feeling like they would’ve converted it).  The Bucs are talented and scrappy but Bowles is an odd gameday manager.

 

I am hard on Beane but you can see glimpses that the plan for this year could’ve worked.  When you squint your imagination a bit there is a world in which the defense got an infusion of young and faster talent from the draft, younger vets like Dorian, Dewayne and Cole improved, and older vets like Bernard, Benford, Rapp and Milano didn’t fall off cliffs in the same season.  And on offense if Keon was a professional who was doing more than the bare minimum to hone his craft, Palmer and Kincaid were healthy, etc., it could’ve worked.  
 

And I suppose it still can work - a lot needs to go right including getting through some tough road games without anymore major injuries - but it is not impossible.

 

Gabe catching that 4th down pass on the first drive felt like a potentially season-altering fork in the road.  Josh’s confidence in the entire system seemed to grow throughout the game starting at that moment.  Can you imagine if it had clunked off of his hands?

 

Watching Miles Garrett get like five sacks for a losing Cleveland team - Beane should go all in trying to pry him away this offseason.  He would be the missing piece on d.