Keon Coleman success by route - Not pretty

[GunnerBill]

21 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I'd agree with all of that.

 

Worth noting that Philly has had a few of those too. Jalen Raegor. Marcus Smith. Andre Dillard. Arcega-Whiteside. Sidney Jones. 

 

Yep. I'm not the one arguing Beane has had more busts than others. I actually think he has had less. The issue I have with his drafting is at the other end of the scale.

[<bills4life>]

On 5/16/2025 at 10:03 PM, Bruffalo said:

McConkey had about double the target share than Coleman.  If you take Coleman's stat production and (unscientifically) extrapolate that to McConkey's target share they'd have almost identical stats.

 

I'm probably higher on Coleman still than most. He's got so much room to grow and he's in arguably the best organization in the NFL to do that.

The difference is Ladd can separate. Coleman has not demonstrated that on a consistent basis at all. This was his biggest concern when he was drafted and continues to remain so.

[Not at the table Karlos]

10 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

 

 

 

The Bills gave up a first and a fourth to get Diggs.  I think that qualifies as spending draft capital on "a speed WR early in the draft".

 

Diggs wasn’t a speed WR tho. He had solid speed but he was an elite route runner. 

[dave mcbride]

3 hours ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

Diggs wasn’t a speed WR tho. He had solid speed but he was an elite route runner. 

This is not true. Forget his 40 time at the combine after an injury plagued career at Maryland. He literally was one of the fastest players measured in an actual game in the past decade. https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/who-10-fastest-players-nfl-next-gen-stats-era

[billsfan89]

Advanced metrics in football can be flawed I would take them with a grain of salt. As a rookie I saw Keon have some struggle and some successes. Keon was a 21 year old rookie stepping into a big spot and he produced decently. He's a hard working guy with a good head for the game, I think he's gonna be better in year two but we will have to see. 

[JGMcD2]

18 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think there is a long list of "good". I think "slightly above average" is harsh. Beane has drafted a lot of good players. But you are absolutely right, the list of elite guys he has drafted begins and ends with Josh Allen.

 

Of the current roster (excluding rookies) the two guys I think have the potential to get there if they can improve again are Spencer Brown and Christian Benford. They both had good seasons in 2023 and excellent seasons in 2024. If either of them goes up another level they are there. Whether they will remains to be seen.

Who are the elite guys across the NFL? Where do the list of elite guys typically get drafted? 

Edited 4 hours ago by JGMcD2

[uticaclub]

12 hours ago, Doc said:

Are people forgetting that AJ Brown and Barkley weren't even drafted by the Eagles?

 

 

Name the best QB Brady faced in the division.

 

Never mind that that's just 6 games out of 16/17 and divisional opponents are built for each other meaning sweeping the division doesn't happen often.

35% is a healthy number

[JP51]

So I am gonna be an optimist here... WR sometimes need some time to develop in transition... So before I draw conclusions I would really like to see how he comes out this year... did he go to school, learn and start to hone his craft... do I see significant improvement and honestly commitment from him.... if not then I am probably ready to compare him to the James Hardy pick LOL... not a lot of patience for someone whose commitment seems to be being questioned by management... like I never see them call people out... and they came pretty close at the end of last season... He is young, maybe he learned a lesson... but if he didnt he is gonna move to a depth piece and then fade away within 2 years IMO... 

[Paup 1995MVP]

13 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

No. OU has the hardest schedule in the country and venables is going to get canned at the end of the season.

I just looked up the Sooners schedule.  It is really difficult.  Good luck.  I am a big college football fan.  And I have always rooted for the Sooners to a degree going back to the Barry Switzer years with JC Watts at QB when I was young. (loved them running all that Option wishbone football. Really interesting how the game has changed over the years.) And then I always liked Bob Stoops too.  But Michigan is my school and my team.  It should be an exciting game between the two blue blood teams that don't usually play each other.  

[GunnerBill]

24 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Who are the elite guys across the NFL? Where do the list of elite guys typically get drafted? 

 

Of course the hit rate at the top of round 1 is higher than anywhere else. But even just the list of the Chiefs and Eagles elite guys....

 

Jones was top of the 2nd round

AJ Brown was a 2nd rounder

Mailata was a 7th rounder.

 

I get it. It is harder drafting where the Bills do. And that is a legit excuse 2 years in. 3 years in. 4 years in. Beane is 8 drafts in. Other than 2018 - where drafting Allen trumps all else - he hasn't even had a draft that matched McDermott's 2017 haul of White, Dawkins, Milano. 

 

This isn't a Beane sucks or fire Beane post. But it is a legitmate criticsm at this stage. 

[oldmanfan]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Of course the hit rate at the top of round 1 is higher than anywhere else. But even just the list of the Chiefs and Eagles elite guys....

 

Jones was top of the 2nd round

AJ Brown was a 2nd rounder

Mailata was a 7th rounder.

 

I get it. It is harder drafting where the Bills do. And that is a legit excuse 2 years in. 3 years in. 4 years in. Beane is 8 drafts in. Other than 2018 - where drafting Allen trumps all else - he hasn't even had a draft that matched McDermott's 2017 haul of White, Dawkins, Milano. 

 

This isn't a Beane sucks or fire Beane post. But it is a legitmate criticsm at this stage. 

I would point out here that some of the Bills best players like Bernard, Benford, Brown, and Cook were 2nd round or lower.

[GunnerBill]

25 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I would point out here that some of the Bills best players like Bernard, Benford, Brown, and Cook were 2nd round or lower.

 

They are. He just hasn't found that elite guy outside Josh...... yet! As I said earlier in the thread though Benford and Brown if they take another step can get into that territory. Cook maybe needs to take two more stepsm but isn't a mile away. 

[Jauronimo]

On 5/16/2025 at 8:33 PM, FLFan said:

It is useless to compare the two.  If you want to make a case that the Bills should have drafted McConkey, then compare him to Shakir and make that argument.  Coleman has a completely different role, unless someone wants to argue that McConkey could play the X which is the position the Bills were trying to fill with that pick.  

Agreed that the comparison is useless.  Unfortunately, Coleman's chart doesn't need any comparisons to conclude that his results were less than optimal, to put it kindly.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

On 5/16/2025 at 9:05 PM, DJB said:

And for reference here is Ladd who many of us vouched for 

 

 

Coleman needs to step up or Beane massively screwed this one up 

 

Does anyone know the criteria of "success" in this chart? 

Edited 3 hours ago by Bleeding Bills Blue

[JGMcD2]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Of course the hit rate at the top of round 1 is higher than anywhere else. But even just the list of the Chiefs and Eagles elite guys....

 

Jones was top of the 2nd round

AJ Brown was a 2nd rounder

Mailata was a 7th rounder.

 

I get it. It is harder drafting where the Bills do. And that is a legit excuse 2 years in. 3 years in. 4 years in. Beane is 8 drafts in. Other than 2018 - where drafting Allen trumps all else - he hasn't even had a draft that matched McDermott's 2017 haul of White, Dawkins, Milano. 

 

This isn't a Beane sucks or fire Beane post. But it is a legitmate criticsm at this stage. 

Gunner, come on. Those examples don’t really hold up for a draft-related critique.

• Chris Jones was drafted by John Dorsey, not Brett Veach.
  • You reference the McDermott 2017 Draft, so might as well reference the Dorsey 2016 Draft
    • FWIW Dorsey also drafted Mahomes in 2017 
    • That means Veach has 1 guy (McDuffie) in 8 drafts too!
• AJ Brown was acquired via trade, and it cost a first-round pick plus a big contract.
• Mailata is a rare, once-in-a-decade kind of a seventh-round find.
  • That said, credit should absolutely be given there.

Let’s be real about how rare true impact players are and try to define them:

• Elite in my opinion is roughly the top 2% of NFL players - about 34 guys total.
• Near-elite in my opinion is roughly the top 5% - around 85 players.
• Very good in my opinion covers the top 15% - about 255 players.

This is keeping in mind, teams don’t draft players evenly across these categories - there are only so many elite or near-elite talents available at any given time in the NFL. Josh Allen is clearly elite - one of those franchise-changing talents. Benford, Spencer Brown, and James Cook are already in the near-elite category. That’s huge, especially considering where they were picked - 185, 93, and 63, respectively. This is on par with - or even better than - his peers. It’s especially impressive considering he hasn’t had the luxury of picking in the top third of each round as often as elite teams like Detroit (4), Philadelphia (3), and San Francisco (3) have from 2018 to 2024. He’s hitting similar marks to teams like Baltimore and Kansas City, which speaks volumes. 

 

If we want to have a fair conversation about Beane’s draft, we need to compare him against realistic standards, not outliers or examples that don't apply to him. Plus, the 2022 draft haul is well on its way to matching the quality of the 2017 haul, which speaks volumes about the direction Beane’s drafting has taken. And that’s not even counting guys like Khalil Shakir, Terrel Bernard, Greg Rousseau, Taron Johnson, and Ed Oliver, who all fall into the very good category. He's right up there with Howie Roseman and Brett Veach. 

Edited 3 hours ago by JGMcD2

[MJS]

How many of each route did he run?

[oldmanfan]

35 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They are. He just hasn't found that elite guy outside Josh...... yet! As I said earlier in the thread though Benford and Brown if they take another step can get into that territory. Cook maybe needs to take two more stepsm but isn't a mile away. 

Agreed.

[LEBills]

1 minute ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Does anyone know the criteria of "success" in this chart? 

https://receptionperception.com/introduction-to-reception-perception-and-its-new-home/

 

”A success is charted when a receiver “gets open” against the coverage. Creating separation, enough for the quarterback to have a reasonable target, is marked as a success. The only plays that are automatically given as success to the receiver are instances where a receiver is obviously held or interfered with (called or not). These plays make a big difference to an offense, and signify a receiver winning yards for his team by forcing the defensive back to hold him.”

 

It is subjective. Though using his stuff for a lot of years now I think he is pretty good at making that judgement. 

[ColoradoBills]

All this speculation about Coleman isn't worth spit.  He was a 21-year-old rookie who got injured.

 

He will be part of Brady's game-planning, and we will all soon see whether he can rise to the expectations of the Bills offense.

[appoo]

 

 

One of these are DK Metcalf. The other is AJ Brown. 

8 minutes ago, LEBills said:

https://receptionperception.com/introduction-to-reception-perception-and-its-new-home/

 

”A success is charted when a receiver “gets open” against the coverage. Creating separation, enough for the quarterback to have a reasonable target, is marked as a success. The only plays that are automatically given as success to the receiver are instances where a receiver is obviously held or interfered with (called or not). These plays make a big difference to an offense, and signify a receiver winning yards for his team by forcing the defensive back to hold him.”

 

It is subjective. Though using his stuff for a lot of years now I think he is pretty good at making that judgement. 

It’s wildly subjective. Also Keon was a very different player pre injury (one of the 3 best rookie WRs and actually a pretty good ranking WR in general) when going by EPA (by far the most accepted and respected advanced stat around) vs post injury. 
 

He acknowledged that, Beane acknowledged that, McDermott did…he’s 21. He’ll be good